que sera sera sdec15

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Page 1: Que Sera Sera sdec15
Page 2: Que Sera Sera sdec15

Ready Doing Done

Seeingproblems

Embracingvariation

Actionablemeasures

Scalingproblems

Page 3: Que Sera Sera sdec15

Ready Doing Done

Embracingvariation

Actionablemeasures

Scalingproblems

Seeingproblems

Page 4: Que Sera Sera sdec15

Directionvs.

Destination

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Are we there yet?

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Typical Product Roadmaps show a single route

Page 7: Que Sera Sera sdec15

More useful Roadmaps show options

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Bungay – “Directed Opportunism”

Knowing our goal,

capabilities and constraints

we’re free to pursue options

that emerge in context

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Annual by Product Management

Bi-annual by Product Management

Quarterly by Product Owner

(Bi-)monthly by Team

Daily by Team

The Planning “Onion”

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The Planning “Telescope”

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The Planning “Weakness”

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Late learning

knowledge

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We ask the wrong questions

• When will this be done?

• Can we offer enough on a given date?

• How much will this cost?

• How much will we invest to learn?

• Can we build this?

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We ask the wrong questions

• When will this be done?

• Can we offer enough on a given date?

• How much will this cost?

• How much will we invest to learn?

• Can we build this?

• Can we provide value?

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Decomposing work

Story

Epic

Project

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Story-maps

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Delivery patterns

60% of project

What we plan for

The S-curvefeatures

time

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Delivery patterns

The S-curve

60% of project

What we plan for

What we should plan for

features

time

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Ready Doing Done

Actionablemeasures

Scalingproblems

Seeingproblems

Embracingvariation

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Our unfortunate reality:

We live in a non-linear,

probabilistic world, yet…

continue to make projections using

deterministic, single-point

predictions guesses.

Page 21: Que Sera Sera sdec15

Point vs. range forecasts

• How long did it take you to get to work

today?

• Yesterday?

• Last week on this day?

• Tomorrow?

• Would you budget the average travel time

if you absolutely had to be present?

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Variation

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Variation

“Normal”

distribution

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Thanks Alexei Zheglov! @az1

But we’re not normal!

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Without

deviations

from the norm

progress isn’t

possible.

Frank Zappa

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Ready Doing Done

Scalingproblems

Seeingproblems

Embracingvariation

Actionablemeasures

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“People who don't know how to measure what they want, settle for wanting what they can measure.”

Russel Ackoff

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Roy Rappaport, Netflix

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Understanding team capacity

• What data will help us make decisions?

~~~~~~

• How much can we do?

• How long does it take?

• Does it work?

• Is this pace sustainable?

• On what basis can we improve?

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Actionable Metric #1: Throughput

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Actionable Metric #2: Cycle Time

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Actionable Metric #3: Escaped Defects

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Actionable Metric #4: Team health

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Ready Doing Done

Seeingproblems

Embracingvariation

Actionablemeasures

Scalingproblems

Page 35: Que Sera Sera sdec15

Scaling up - Random Branch Sampling

Story

Epic

Project

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RBS Algorithm:

1.Randomly select one of the epics

2.Count the number of stories in the sampled

epic

3.Use formula (1) to calculate one estimate of the

total number of stories in the project

4.Repeat steps 2-4 between 7 and 11 times

5.Use formula (2) to calculate the total number of

stories for the project

6.Divide by the team’s throughput

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Ready Doing Done

Seeingproblems

Embracingvariation

Actionablemeasures

Scalingproblems

Page 40: Que Sera Sera sdec15

Take-away ideas

• Have a clear directional goal

• Decompose your work (as you understand

it) and make it visible!

• Count completed stories

• Record variation of story time-in-process

• Adjust for escaped defect experience

• Use evidence to forecast a probable future

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References• David Nicolette, 2015, Software Development Metrics, Manning

• Daniel S. Vacanti, 2015, Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability:

An Introduction, Leanpub

• Anderson, D.J., 2003,Agile Management for Software Engineering.

Prentice Hall.

• Ellen Gottesdiener + Mary Gorman, 2012, Discover to Deliver, EBG

Publishing

• Alexei Zheglov, 2014, lead-time-and-iterative-software-development,

http://connected-knowledge.com

• Dimitar Bakardzhiev, 2015, probabilistic-project-sizing,

http://www.infoq.com

• Alistair Cockburn, 2013, Disciplined+Learning,

http://alistair.cockburn.us

Page 42: Que Sera Sera sdec15

Andrew Annett

[email protected]

[email protected]

@akannett

Questions?