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    Reading the polls

    What to expect in 2015?

    Tuesday 10 June

    #NCVO2015

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    Welcome

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    What does the sector expect?

    Charlotte Taylor, NCVO

    @Charlotte_NCVO

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    Charities Forecast poll

    What do you believe is the most likely outcome of the next

    General Election in May 2015?

    Sample: 717

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    Charities Forecast poll

    What do you believe is the most likely outcome of the next

    General Election in May 2015?

    Sample: 717

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    Office sweepstake

    Labour majority Labour minority Labour / Lib Dem coalition

    Conservative majority Conservative minority Conservative / Lib Demcoalition

    What do you believe is the most likely outcome of the next

    General Election in May 2015?

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    Reading the polls

    Tom Mludzinski, ComRes

    @tom_ComRes

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    Reading the polls: what to expect in 2015?Tom Mludzinski,

    Head of Political Polling, ComRes

    @tom_ComRes

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    2010 RESULT

    GE2010: hardly a ringing endorsement

    Party Vote share Change HoC seats Change

    Con 36.1% +3.7% 306 +94

    Lab 29.0% -6.2% 258 -91

    Lib Dem 23.0% +1.0% 57 -5

    304

    257

    56 33

    Current seat distribution

    Conservative Labour Lib Dem Other

    Target for majority: 326 Conservatives need net gain of 22

    Labour need net gain of 69

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    THE BIG QUESTIONS

    Two questions that everyone is seeking to answer:

    1. How solid is the Labour lead? 2. What will happen to UKIP?

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    Conservative

    Labour

    Liberal Democrats

    Jun-Dec 10:Avg. 3pt Con

    lead

    AVERAGE MONTHLY RATING

    The story so far

    Source: ComRes voting intention polls for The Independent, Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror; Base: all Britishadults intending to vote

    Apr 12 - Apr 13:Avg. 8pt Lab lead

    Jan 11 - Mar 12:Avg. 3pt Lab lead

    May 13 - May 14:

    Avg. 6pt Lab lead

    30%

    34%

    9%

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    Conservative

    Labour

    Liberal Democrats

    UKIP

    AVERAGE MONTHLY RATINGUKIP

    and the rise of UKIP

    17%

    30%

    34%

    9%

    Source: ComRes voting intention polls for The Independent, Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror; Base: all British adults intending to vote

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    RESULTS FROM VOTE 2014

    Earthquake? Tremor?

    24

    257

    27

    8 9

    European Parliamentary Election

    Source: ComRes / The People; Base 2,007 British adults 18+, 2nd3rdApr 14

    LabourConservative Lib Dem UKIP Other

    29

    3113

    17

    10

    Local Elections: Projected NationalShare

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    WHY PEOPLE VOTED FOR UKIP

    But why did it happen? Immigration was the top reason people voted UKIP

    74%

    59%

    52%

    39%33%

    29%25%

    21%18% 16%

    13%

    Britain needstighter

    immigrationcontrols

    I want Britainto leave EU

    UKIP saywhat they

    think

    Labourdoesn't

    represent me

    Con Partydoesn't

    represent meanymore

    Other Partiesare all the

    same

    Nigel Farage Coalit iongovnt record

    UKIP are notpart ofpolitical

    establishment

    DavidCameron

    Gay marriage

    10/10 importance of reasons for voting UKIP at European Election

    Q. How important was each of the following as a possible reason for your decision to vote UKIP at the European

    elections on Thursday? Please use a scale of 1-10 where 1 is not at all important and 10 is very important. Base:All adults saying they voted UKIP at the EP2014 elections (n=850)

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    LIKELIHOOD OF VOTING FOR UKIP IN 2015

    And what does it all mean for 2015?

    10%

    37%

    36%

    49%

    54%

    14%

    GE2010 Convoters

    EP 2014 UKIPvoters

    10/10 Certain Likely (5-9/10) Unlikely (1-4/10)

    Q. Thinking ahead to the General Election next year where MPs are elected to Parliament in Westminster, on a scale

    of 1-10 how likely or unlikely are you to vote for each of the following political parties? UKIPBase: All adults saying they voted UKIP at the EP2014 elections (n=850), All adults saying they voted Conservative in

    2010 (1,178)

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    16

    Men

    Older

    Ex-Conservatives

    38% of UKIP supporters voted Conservative in2010, 10% Labour, 15% LibDem

    Midlands and the South

    Which also tend to be Tory areas

    Read the Daily Mail or Telegraph

    Not the Guardian!

    More negative & grumpy

    Europe is an issuebut even moreworried about

    immigration & economy

    So who are UKIP supporter (for Westminster elections)?

    PROFILE OF UKIP VOTERS

    33%32%

    54% 51%

    I am attracted to UKIPbecause they say what they

    think

    UKIP offers a realisticalternative political vision of

    Britain

    Straight-talkers*

    Agree Disagree

    Source: ComRes / The Independent; Base: 1,000 British adults 18+, 11th13thApril 2014

    88% of UKIP

    supporters

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    How solid is theLabour lead?

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    CURRENT VOTING INTENTION OF 2010 VOTERS

    Labour are hanging on to their voters, but where are the others going?

    Source: ComRes voting intention polls for the Independent on Sunday, Sunday Mirror; Base: 10,534 British adults, aggregated over 6

    waves of ComRes online voting intention polls, October 13 Mar 14

    79%

    3%

    1% 5%

    2% 9%

    66%4%

    17%

    1%

    2%10%

    26%

    28%

    6%

    11%

    7%

    21%

    LabourConservative Lib Dem UKIP Other Dont know

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    Weaknesses

    Only represent the interests

    of the rich

    - 51% Agree, 42% Disagree

    More divided now than

    under John Major

    - 56% Agree, 23% Disagree

    I feel I have personally

    benefited from UK

    economic growth over the

    past six months

    -Agree 11%, Disagree 71%

    The economy and credibility

    Strengths

    Most likely to keep economy

    growing

    - Con 40% Lab 26%

    Net economic trust

    - Cameron/Osborne: -13/ -21

    - Miliband/Balls: -35/ -43

    Most trusted to negotiate on

    Britains behalf with the rest

    of the EU

    - Con 39%, Lab 24%

    CONSERVATIVE PARTY STRENGTHS

    Leadership

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    PARTIESUNFAVOURABLE OPINION

    Detoxification hasnt worked for the Conservatives

    Source: ComRes / Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday; Base 2,031 British adults 18+, 12 th13thFeb 14

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    LEADERSFAVOURABLE OPINION

    But Cameron is still an asset to his party, and Miliband is a weakness

    Glamorous assistant to Cameron

    Going the wrong way up a one way street

    Source: ComRes / Sunday Mirror / Independent on Sunday; Base 2,031 British adults 18+, 12 th13thFeb 14

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    Ed Miliband as Prime Minister?

    A little scaredApprehensive

    He doesnt inspire confidence as

    an individualKeep to the left!

    MILIBAND AMONG LABOUR VOTERS

    Source: ComRes / Channel 4 Focus GroupsLib Dem voters in 2010, now voting Labour, 9thApril 2014