renewable energy corporation asa seb enskilda nordic … · presentation. rec asa is making no...

31
Renewable Energy Corporation 1 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | January 2010 RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic Seminar SVP Jon André Løkke Copenhagen, January 8, 2010

Upload: others

Post on 01-Aug-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

1 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | January 2010

RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA

SEB Enskilda Nordic Seminar

SVP Jon André Løkke

Copenhagen, January 8, 2010

Page 2: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

2 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

DISCLAIMERThis Presentation includes and is based, inter alia, on forward-looking information and statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ. These statements and this Presentation are based on current expectations, estimates and projections about global economic conditions, the economic conditions of the regions and industries that are major markets for REC ASA and REC ASA’s (including subsidiaries and affiliates) lines of business. These expectations, estimates and projections are generally identifiable by statements containing words such as ”expects”, ”believes”, ”estimates” or similar expressions. Important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expectations include, among others, economic and market conditions in the geographic areas and industries that are or will be major markets for REC’s businesses, energy prices, market acceptance of new products and services, changes in governmental regulations, interest rates, fluctuations in currency exchange rates and such other factors as may be discussed from time to time in the Presentation. Although REC ASA believes that its expectations and the Presentation are based upon reasonable assumptions, it can give no assurance that those expectations will be achieved or that the actual results will be as set out in the Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or completeness of the Presentation, and neither REC ASA nor any of its directors, officers or employees will have any liability to you or any other persons resulting from your use.

This presentation was prepared for SEB Enskilda Nordic Seminar January 8, 2010. Information contained within will not be updated. The following slides should be read and considered in connection with the information given orally during the presentation.

The REC shares have not been registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the "Act"), and may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Act.

Page 3: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

RIGHT HERE IN CALIFORNIA

Residential home with 61 REC solar panels installed in Monterey, California. Annual capacity: 19 435 kWh13.1 tons of CO2 saved annually

WHY IS SOLAR ATTRACTIVE?

Page 4: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

4 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

The world needs more energySupply of different energy sourcesExajoule

0

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Nuclear

Renewables

Natural Gas

Oil

Coal

Source: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios), Alt. 1

Definition: exajoule (EJ) is a unit of energy, 1018 joules, often used as unit of measure for world annual energy use

Page 5: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

5 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

The sun supplies “virtually” unlimited energyE

quiv

alen

t sto

ck o

f ene

rgy

sour

ce Uranium

Natural gas

Oil

Coal

Annual energy demand

Fact: There is more energy delivered by the sun in one hour than what is consumed by the world’s population in one year

Solar power

Page 6: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

6 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

Solar energy produced at point of consumption

➔The price of electricity includes generation cost as well as transmission cost

➔Solar energy has the advantage that it can be produced near, or at the point of consumption

➔Price comparisons should therefore be determined at the point of use

DISTRIBUTION

Power plant High voltage grid Transformer Low voltage grid Customer

Page 7: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

7 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

Majority of the world’s population lives within the sunbelt

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 >8.5

Source: NASA Surface meteorology

kWh/m2/day

Definition:The sunbelt is defined as equator +/- 30°

Page 8: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

8 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | January 2010

The concept of grid parity

Source: BP Solar

Time

Pric

e

GRID PARITY

2010

Page 9: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

9 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

Grid parity status

*Amount generated by a south-facing 1kWp module in 1 year (function of solar intensity)Source: Eurostat; PV Policy group; PG&E; CIA country files; Public policy Institute New York; McKinsey&Company, RECAssumptions: 2007 electricity prices

Solar energy at €3 installed

900800 1 000 1 100 1 200 1 300 1 400 1 500 1 7001 600 1 800 1 900 2 000 2 100

0.10

0.30

0.40

Aver

age

pric

e fo

r hou

seho

lds

(EU

R/k

Wh)

0.20

€4 €5 €6 €7

Finland

South Korea

China IndiaGreece

FranceGermany

Japan

New York

Spain

Australia

Texas

CaliforniaHawaii

Italy

UK

California-Tier 5

NorwaySweden

Netherlands

California-Tier 4

Annual solar yield (kWH/kWp)*

€3

Page 10: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

10 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

Current status in key solar markets

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

E

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

E

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

E

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

E

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

E

USA (MW)

Germany (MW)

Spain (MW) Italy (MW)

Japan (MW)

Source: Commerzbank Corporates & Markets

Page 11: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

RIGHT HERE IN ALICANTE

REC panels installed in a power plant in Alicante, Spain. System size of 8 MW, powering 4 896 households

WHAT SOLAR CAN DELIVER

Page 12: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

12 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

“PV electricity can provide up to 12% of the EU electricity demand by 2020, from less than 1% today, provided the right conditions are created by EU policy makers, national governments and energy industry stakeholders, including the PV sector”

A 12% market share for PV is a demanding, but achievable and desirable objective, not only for Europe but for the world as a whole

Set for 2020 ”Solar Photovoltaic Electricity: A mainstream power source in Europe by 2020”, EPIA

Page 13: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

13 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

Exeptional growth in installed capacityHistorical development of Global cumulative PV power installed

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

MW

Source: Global market outlook for photovoltaics until 2013, EPIA

Page 14: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

14 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

The cost of solar energy is consistently decreasingHistorical module learning curve

1

10

100

0 10 1001 1,000 10,000 100,000

PV M

odul

epr

ices

USD

/Wp

Cumulative Module Production (MWp)

1980

1990

2000

2006

Page 15: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

Renewable Energy

CorporationDEVELOPMENT OF REC

Page 16: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

16 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

An integrated PV company originating in Norway

➔ Presence across the solar value chain creates strategic opportunities

➔ Cost reductions continue to be realized through:- Transparent cost structure- Technology development and synergies- Applying best practices

REC Silicon REC Wafer REC SolarCells Modules Systems

Chemical process Casting and cutting Surface treatment Assembly Project development

Page 17: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

17 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

Start production in

ScanCell

Start production in ScanWafer

Capacity expansions

Start production in ScanModule

EstablishedSolar Grade

Silicon

AquiredASiMI

AquiredSiTech

REC Group has grown with the industry

Page 18: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

18 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

Close to NOK 30 billion in expansionsREC Silicon Capacity increase Ramp-up+ Moses Lake (Silicon III) 6,500 MT 2H’09

+ Moses Lake (Silicon IV)* 4,000 MT 2H’10

= Sum 10,500 MT

REC Wafer

+ Herøya III + IV 650 MW Q4’08-Q1’10

+ Glomfjord (multi) 100 MW Q2’08-Q4’08

+ Glomfjord (mono) 275 MW Q2’08-Q3’10

+ Singapore (Phase I) 740 MW Q2’10-Q2’11

= Sum 1,875 MW

REC Solar

+ Singapore (Phase I) (cell) 550 MW Q1’10-Q1’11

+ Singapore (Phase I) (module) 590 MW Q1’10-Q1’11

= Sum 550+590 MW

* In addition: 2,300 MT silane gas allocated to the merchant market

Page 19: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

19 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | January 2010

Photo: Moses Lake Silane Gas factory, Moses Lake, Washington, USA

Polysilicon: Total investment budget of USD >2 billion

Page 20: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

20 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | January 2010

Two alternative production technologies

Siemens Reactors:+ Silane based proven technology+ Produces ultra-pure polysilicon+ Meets a specific set of market needs- Higher energy consumption- Batch process- Needs additional product finishing to be usable

FBR Technology:+ Proprietary REC technology+ Energy efficient+ Continuous production+ Lower cost+ Granular poly is easy to handle- Ramping to commercial scale

Siemens Reactor Schematic FBR Reactor Schematic

Silane

Cooling medium

Cooling medium

Reactor outletReactor inlet

Electrical contact

Polysilicon rods

Page 21: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

21 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | January 2010

Photo: Singapore plant under construction

Singapore: Total investment budget of USD >2 billion

Cell ModuleWafer

Page 22: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

Winery with 228 REC solar panels installed in Barbaresco, Italy. Annual capacity 54 000 kWh26 tons of CO2 saved annually

RIGHT HERE IN ITALY

REC ENVIRONMENTAL FOOTPRINT

Page 23: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

23 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

0 100 200 300 400 500

Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT)

CCGT + CO2*

Coal Gasification + CO2*

Nuclear

Biomass

Wind

Solar: Present

REC mondule w/FBR polysilicon

g CO2 Equivalent/kWh

The CO2 emission from solar energy is very lowLife-cycle greenhouse gas emissions

Carbon based

Nuclear

Other renewables

Solar

*CO2 capture and storage

Source: Annual Energy Review, U.S. Energy Information Administration

** REC today: very limited CO2 emissions based on currentlocations which largely utilize hydro power

**

Page 24: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

24 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

➔Payback time of around one year- Energy payback is the time it takes

a solar panel to generate the same amount of energy that was used to produce it

➔For the remaining 24 years of its guaranteed lifetime, a solar panel will be ‘energy positive’

Solar energy payback timeEnergy payback timeNumber of Years

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

Mono 2005 Multi 2005 REC 2007 REC today

Source: Alsema et al. (EU Crystal Clear project), 21st European PV Conference, Dresden, 2006* With REC’s FBR polysilicon technology

*

Page 25: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

RIGHT HERE IN HAMBURG

Residential home with 32 REC solar panels installed in Hamburg, Germany. Annual capacity: 6 200 kWh4 tons of CO2 saved annually

MAIN FOCUS AREAS OF THE REC GROUP

Page 26: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

26 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | January 2010

A fast growing company like REC require significant efforts in building: competence and systems…

CUSTOMER SATISFACTIONBest safety – best quality

Shortest lead time – lowest cost

WASTE REDUCTION 0 DEFECTSPERFECT FLOW

R E C I D

STABILITY AND CONTINOUS

IMPROVEMENTS

CUSTOMER SATISFACTIONBest safety – best quality

Shortest lead time – lowest cost

WASTE REDUCTION 0 DEFECTSPERFECT FLOW WASTE REDUCTION 0 DEFECTSPERFECT FLOW

HSE & QUALITYRPS PRINCIPLES

PEOPLE

TECHNOLOGY

STABILITY & CONTINUOUS

IMPROVEMENTS

CUSTOMER SATISFACTIONBest safety – best quality

Shortest lead time – lowest cost

WASTE REDUCTION 0 DEFECTSPERFECT FLOW WASTE REDUCTION 0 DEFECTSPERFECT FLOW

R E C I DD

STABILITY AND CONTINOUS

IMPROVEMENTS

CUSTOMER SATISFACTIONBest safety – best quality

Shortest lead time – lowest cost

WASTE REDUCTION 0 DEFECTSPERFECT FLOW WASTE REDUCTION 0 DEFECTSPERFECT FLOW

HSE & QUALITYHSE & QUALITYRPS PRINCIPLESRPS PRINCIPLES

PEOPLE

TECHNOLOGY

STABILITY & CONTINUOUS

IMPROVEMENTS

...this should over time enable operational excellence to get the maximum cost potential out of our plants

Page 27: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

27 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

Cutting costs with technologyCost cutting targets in REC

• Granular polysilicon(FBR) • Thinner

wafers• Thinner

sawing wire

• New furnace technology

• Increasing conversion efficiency

• Process technology

• Sourcing

Singapore and FBR is expected to establish a value chain cost position of <1 EUR/Wp*, from silicon through module

* Definition: Watt-peak (Wp) is a measure of power output, most often used in relation to photovoltaic solar energy devices

“World Class”

in2005

Page 28: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

28 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

Cutting cost through scale and technology (growth in year-end capacity)Poly and sale of Silane gas* (MT)

Wafers(MW)

Modules(MW)

CAGR = ~40% CAGR = ~60% CAGR = ~95%

Capacity

Production

* Silane gas allocated for sale in the merchant market

Capacity

Production

Capacity

Production

Page 29: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

RIGHT HERE IN GADENDORF

Pig farm with 434 REC panels installed in Gadendorf, Germany. Annual capacity 78 000 kWh51 tons of CO2 saved annually

OUTLOOK

Page 30: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

30 © Copyright 2009 Renewable Energy Corporation ASA. All Rights Reserved | December 2009

Over capacity and continued price pressure in 2010Possible module supply based on Si-availability including thin-filmGW

* LBBW adjusted implies supply estimates adjusted for inventory requirements in value chain

MW 6.8 – 9.6 12.2 – 16.2 18.8 – 20.9

Demand: 5-6 GW

Demand: 7-10 GW

Page 31: RENEWABLE ENERGY CORPORATION ASA SEB Enskilda Nordic … · Presentation. REC ASA is making no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy, reliability or

Renewable Energy

Corporation

“I'd put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don't have to wait till oil and coal run out before we tackle that.”

Thomas Edison to his friends Henry Ford and Harvey Firestone (1931)