rowlett state of the market - rowlett economic...

Rowlett State of the Market David Kahn, Senior Market Analyst

• D-FW Economic Outlook

• Multifamily

• Focus on Harmony

• Demographics & Retail

• Takeaways

Agenda

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D-FW Economic Outlook

Employment Growth Still Outpacing U.S. Average

82

82

82

82

83

83

83

83

84

84

84

84

85

85

85

85

86

86

86

86

87

87

87

87

88

88

88

88

89

89

Sources: Moody's Analytics; CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

(6%)

(5%)

(4%)

(3%)

(2%)

(1%)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

D-FW United States

Employment Growth (Y/Y)

Job Growth By Industry Type

Current

Hard Copy


117%122%

117%

127% 125%

108%

130%123%

75%

101%

64%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

Tota

l N

onfa

rm

Offic

e U

sin

g

Tra

de

Busin

ess S

erv

ices

Edu

cation &

Health

Serv

ices

Govern

ment

Leis

ure

&H

ospitalit

y

Fin

ancia

l A

ctivitie

s

Manufa

ctu

rin

g

Co

nstr

uction

Info

rmation

Employment As A % Of Prerecession Peak Employment Growth Last 12 Months

Employment As A % Of Prerecession Peak Employment Growth (Y/Y)

D-FW By Age Cohort

Metro

San Diego

Austin

Charlotte

Columbus OH

Denver

Durham

Houston

Orlando

Raleigh

San Antonio

Tampa

US

San Diego

United States


20%

26%

25%

28%

United States

65+ Years Older 50-64 Years Old 35-49 Years Old 20-34 Years Old

15%

25%

30%

30%

Dallas - Fort Worth

33%

17%

6%10%

21%

6%

-2%

6%

(5%)0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%

65+ Years Older 50-64 Years Old 35-49 Years Old 20-34 Years Old

2011-2016 Growth

Dallas - Fort Worth United States

Companies Are Expanding Throughout Dallas

Major Corporate Expansion And Relocation Map

Toyota, Liberty Mutual, Fannie Mae,

Capital One

Raytheon

AT&T, Omnitracs, The

Active Network, Jacobs

Engineering

CoreLogic

Relocation

Expansion

D-FW Is Affordable

Rank1

3

2

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Sources: CoStar Market Analytics, Neustar As of 16Q4

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

Nation

al

Ga

rla

nd/R

ow

lett

Rockw

all/

Wyl

ie

Pla

no

Beth

esda (

DC

)

Sou

thea

st L

ake

Cou

nty

(C

HI)

Nort

hern

Na

ssau

(N

Y)

Waltham

/Arl

ingto

n/B

elm

on

t (B

OS

)

Redw

oo

d C

ity (

SF

)

Sou

th B

ay (

LA

)

Home Value to Income RatioCollin County Premier Suburban Submarkets

Home Value to Income RatioMedian Household Income

Housing Starts And Apartment Deliveries vs. Household Growth

138689901

11421851359395516

102628704

1442316542

318440396326

1286914591170221582221190

16322.95

-6311.5227717.2721178.29

Source: Moody's; CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Housing Starts Household Growth Apartment Deliveries

Housing Starts vs Household Growth

DFW SFR Price Growth Outpacing MF Rent Growth

82

82

82

82

83

83

83

83

84

84

84

84

85

85

85

85

86

86

86

86

87

87

87

87

88

88

88

88

89

89

89

Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of 16Q4

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

SFR Home Price Growth (Y/Y) Rent Growth (Y/Y)

SFR Home Price/Rent Growth

• Realize Rowlett 2020: 3,500 Acres of Undeveloped Land

• Median Household Income $83,000

• 30-45 Minute Commute to Downtown Dallas & Legacy West

• 800,000 SF Commercial Real Estate Built Since 2010

• 2.5 MSF Commercial Real Estate Under Construction/Proposed

• $1.5 Billion In Private Investment

Focus on Rowlett

Multifamily

Garland/Rowlett Submarket Apartment Fundamentals

Choose a Submarket:

12/31/199612/31/199712/31/199812/31/199912/31/200012/31/200112/31/200212/31/200312/31/200412/31/200512/31/200612/31/200712/31/200812/31/200912/31/201012/31/2011

Source: CoStar Market Analytics As of March 2017

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

0.1%

2.4% 2.3%

3.5%

4.2%

7.6%

5.5%

4.6%

2.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Annual Change in Demand & Supply Vacancy & Vacancy Average

Annual Rent Growth

Rockwall/Wylie Submarket Apartment Fundamentals

Choose a Submarket:

12/31/199612/31/199712/31/199812/31/199912/31/200012/31/200112/31/200212/31/200312/31/200412/31/200512/31/200612/31/200712/31/200812/31/200912/31/201012/31/2011


0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

-0.8%

2.2%

3.2% 3.4% 3.4%

4.1%

0.7%

1.5%1.8%

(2%)

(1%)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Annual Change in Demand & Supply Vacancy & Vacancy Average

Annual Rent Growth

Apartments Under Construction By Metro

Rank1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000N

ew

York

Da

llas-F

ort

Wort

h

Los A

ngele

s

Ho

usto

n

Sea

ttle

Atlan

ta

Ch

icago

De

nver

Bosto

n

Pho

enix

Ora

ng

e C

ounty

Ch

arlotte

Mia

mi

Na

shvill

e

Austin

Co

llin C

ounty

San

An

tonio

San

Jose

Port

land O

R

Kan

sas C

ity

Washin

gto

n, D

C

San

Fra

ncis

co

San

Die

go

Completions As A % Of InventorySouth East Midwest West

New Supply (As % of Inventory)New Supply (Units)

Under Construction By Submarket

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000F

risco

Pla

no

Ea

st

Dallas

Up

tow

n/P

ark

Citie

s

Allen

/McK

inney

No

rth

we

st F

ort

Wo

rth

Fa

rmers

Bra

nch/A

dd

ison

/Ca

rro

llton

La

s C

olin

as

Garla

nd/R

ow

lett

Arl

ing

ton

West

Da

llas

Da

llas C

BD

So

uth

we

st F

ort

Wo

rth

Oak C

liff

No

rth

Da

llas

Ro

ckw

all/W

ylie

Units Under Construction % Of Stock UC

% Stock ChangeNominal Stock Change (Units)

Focus on Harmony

• Built 2016

• 4 Story Mid-Rise

• $1.40/SF

• High-End Amenities

• 90% occupied

• 40 Unit/Month Lease-up!

• No Concessions

• 2nd Phase Starting Soon

Harmony Comps

Harmony Comps Continued

Harmony Daily Rent Trends

Rents On New Deliveries By Submarket

PID

8788713

94015479587920

1E+0793682009555631

1E+0799457379730304

9270417934773695326269296709938909096351159271150889285912853256554891840400589711229513985


$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

$3.00

$3.50

$4.00

Eastern Dallas Suburbs Dallas CBD East Dallas Frisco Plano Uptown/Park Cities

Asking Rent/SF

In The Pipeline

Bayside – 800+ Units

Terra Lago – 447 Units

Cypress Creek – 220 Units

Parc at Wylie – 158 Units

Heights at Campfire Crossing – 399 Units

Harmony II – 300+ Units

Domain at Firewheel – 299 Units

Carriage Homes II – 103 Units

705 W Avenue B – 200+ Units Village of Rowlett – 249 Units

Parc at Garland – 198 Units

Parc at Wylie – 158 Units

Heights at Campfire Crossing – 399 Units

Bayside – 800+ Units

Terra Lago – 447 Units

Cypress Creek – 220 Units Domain at Firewheel – 299 Units

Harmony II – 300+ Units

Carriage Homes II – 103 Units

705 W Avenue B – 200+ Units Village of Rowlett – 249 Units

Signature Gateway – 900+ Units

Spring Creek – 800+ Units

Demographics & Retail

Bayside - Demographics

Bayside – Daytime Employment

Bayside Legacy

Retail On Strong Footing

Key Takeaways

• Pricing Advantage On New Projects Leads To Strong Lease-Up

• Will Northern Path Of Job Growth Spillover To Here?

• Infrastructure!

• Softening in CRE to be expected at this point in the cycle

Outlook

rowlett state of the market - rowlett economic...

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