sell homes before they hit the market - realty executives santa … · 2016. 11. 18. · realty...
TRANSCRIPT
Realty Executives Santa Clarita November 17, 2016
Leslie Appleton-Young Chief Economist & Vice President
“Nobody had it priced in and the uncertainty Is absolutely enormous”
Every Wall Street Analyst After 11/8/16
Economic Stimulus Package
Key considerations
• $1 trillion in infrastructure investments over a 10-year period as part of an economic stimulus package. $100 billion per year in infrastructure investments to “rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals.” • Boost economic growth – GDP higher at least short-term • More jobs = more housing demand • Upward pressure on home prices
Trade Policy
Key considerations
• Trump made it very clear in his campaign message that the current trade deals are not working and he wanted a trade reform to bring jobs back to America.
• Withdraw from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) • Renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement
(NAFTA) • Declare China a currency manipulator • Tax imports from Mexico (Corona anyone?) • Increase tariffs on Chinese imports
Tax Reform
Key considerations
• Tax Plan – Overhaul of the current tax code • Reduction in taxes paid by individuals and by corporations. • Collapse the current 7personal tax brackets to 3 brackets • Increase standard deduction for both single & married
Eliminate the federal estate and gift taxes • Repeal personal exemptions & Cap itemized deductions • Repeal all taxes associated with Obamacare • Provide a child care deduction • Allow U.S. based manufacturers to elect full expensing of
plant and equipment
The Fed
Days Numbered?
January 2010 – November 10, 2016 NerdWallet Survey 11/14/16 4.10%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2010/01 2010/09 2011/05 2012/01 2012/09 2013/05 2014/01 2014/09 2015/05 2016/01 2016/09 10.20.16
FRM ARM
3.57 3.54 2.88
Mortgage Rates: Rising Post-Election
MONTHLY WEEKLY
SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 5Yr ARM SOURCE: Freddie Mac
FHA Fannie & Freddie
Dodd- Frank
Key considerations
Republican stance has been to: • Shrink Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae • Reform FHA • Reduce the government footprint in housing.
Unclear how Trump reacts to both the needs of the voters and the platform of the Republican party when it comes to housing.” (Nela Richardson, Redfin)
Key considerations
• Changes to Dodd-Frank financial regulation: A clear positive would be the lifting of compliance costs imposed on small-sized banks. Around 10,000 local and community banks fund construction and land development loans. With less regulatory burden, these small banks can make more loans and will boost home building activity • Changes to financial regulations on large banks like
Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo could again lead us back to the days of cowboy capitalism and consequent exposure to a massive taxpayer bailout.” (Lawrence Yun, NAR)
EPA’s Land Use Policy?
Student Debt? Drones?
Lead Paint?
Immigrants Buying Homes?
Fair Housing Act?
CA Market Update
Cadence of Accountability How did I do with last year’s forecast?
2016 Forecast Report Card
SFH Resales (000s)
% Change
Median Price ($000s)
% Change
30-Yr FRM
Housing Affordability Index
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
2015 Actual
408.8
6.8%
$474.4
6.2%
3.9%
31%
2.4%
2016 Forecast
433.0
6.3%
$491.3
3.2%
4.5%
27%
2.7%
2016 Projected
407.3
-0.4%
$503.9
6.2%
3.6%
33%
1.5%
Sales of Existing Detached Homes California, Oct. 2016 Sales: 442,970 Units, +0.4% YTD, +8.0% YTY
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Oct-16: 442,970
Oct-15: 410,310
Sales of Existing Detached Homes
So.CA Oct-2016 Sales: 11,039 Units, +0.5% YTD, +1.6% YTY
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales of Existing Detached Homes
Southern California Region
SERIES: Sales of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Los Angeles 3,638 3,660 3,761 -0.6% -3.3% -1.1%Orange County 1,516 1,563 1,403 -3.0% 8.1% -0.1%
Riverside County 1,944 2,134 1,875 -8.9% 3.7% 4.3%San Bernardino 1,239 1,309 1,227 -5.3% 1.0% 1.6%
San Diego 1,956 2,011 1,827 -2.7% 7.1% 0.5%Ventura 549 536 585 2.4% -6.2% -3.3%
Santa Barbara 197 212 191 -7.1% 3.1% 0.9%
Y-t-YCounty Oct-16 Sep-16 Oct-15 M-t-M Y-t-D
MEDIAN PRICE OF EXISTING DETACHED HOMES
California, Oct. 2016: $513,520, +1.2% MTM, +7.3% YTY
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000 P: May-07 $594,530
T: Feb-09 $245,230
-59% from peak
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Oct-16: $513,520 Oct-15:
$478,780
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
Southern California, Oct-2016: $490,880, +6.2% YTY
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Median Price of Existing Detached Homes
Southern California Region
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Los Angeles $533,370 $546,920 $509,570 -2.5% 4.7%Orange County $750,000 $739,000 $700,000 1.5% 7.1%
Riverside County $355,950 $352,250 $330,000 1.1% 7.9%San Bernardino $247,590 $254,330 $231,330 -2.7% 7.0%
San Diego $576,620 $569,000 $520,500 1.3% 10.8%Ventura $631,330 $629,420 $604,610 0.3% 4.4%
Santa Barbara $595,000 $732,500 $725,000 -18.8% -17.9%
Y-t-YCounty Oct-16 Sep-16 Oct-15 M-t-M
Peak vs. 6/16: Southern California
SERIES:MedianPriceofExistingDetachedHomesSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS®
RegionLastCyclicalPeakMonth
LastCyclicalPeakPrice
Jun-16Median
%ChgFromPeak
OrangeCounty Jun-07 $775,420 $759,490 -2.1%
SanDiegoCounty May-06 $622,380 $594,430 -4.5%
VenturaCouty Aug-06 $710,910 $674,310 -5.1%
CALIFORNIA May-07 $594,530 $519,440 -12.6%
RiversideCounty Jun-06 $431,710 $357,810 -17.1%
LosAngelesMetro May-07 $578,700 $477,230 -17.5%
InlandEmpire Jun-06 $389,380 $319,100 -18.0%
LosAngelesCounty Sep-07 $625,810 $502,190 -19.8%
SanBernardinoCounty Aug-06 $350,290 $245,220 -30.0%
Peak vs. 6/16 Median: Central Valley
SERIES:MedianPriceofExistingDetachedHomesSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS®
RegionLastCyclicalPeakMonth
LastCyclicalPeakPrice
Jun-16Median
%ChgFromPeak
CALIFORNIA May-07 $594,530 $519,440 -12.6%
MaderaCounty Feb-08 $275,000 $234,720 -14.6%
SacramentoCounty Aug-05 $394,450 $332,580 -15.7%
PlacerCounty Aug-05 $527,990 $444,590 -15.8%
Kern(Bakersfield)County Jun-06 $299,920 $238,400 -20.5%
KingsCounty Mar-06 $268,050 $211,110 -21.2%
TulareCounty Dec-05 $269,710 $211,820 -21.5%
FresnoCounty Jun-06 $313,510 $242,240 -22.7%
SanBenitoCounty May-05 $671,190 $511,500 -23.8%
MercedCounty Oct-05 $344,610 $207,580 -39.8%
Peak vs. 6/16 Median: Bay Area
SERIES:MedianPriceofExistingDetachedHomesSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS®
RegionLastCyclicalPeakMonth
LastCyclicalPeakPrice
Jun-16Median
%ChgFromCyclicalPeak
SanFranciscoCounty May-07 $972,010 $1,350,000 38.9%
SanMateoCounty Oct-07 $1,020,000 $1,306,250 28.1%
SantaClaraCounty Apr-07 $865,000 $1,050,000 21.4%
AlamedaCounty May-07 $709,420 $803,000 13.2%
SanFranciscoBayArea May-07 $789,250 $841,960 6.7%
MarinCounty Jun-07 $1,149,390 $1,218,500 6.0%
SonomaCounty Jan-06 $650,330 $608,000 -6.5%
ContraCostaCounty May-07 $698,420 $625,000 -10.5%
CALIFORNIA May-07 $594,530 $519,440 -12.6%
NapaCounty Aug-06 $729,170 $619,000 -15.1%
SolanoCounty Jun-06 $492,800 $390,000 -20.9%
Don’t Bother Commuting in Major Metros
Q4 - What is the average commute time …
…from Riverside to Irvine?
…from Palo Alto to San Francisco?
12%
13%
51%
52%
23%
20%
13%
15%
<1 hour 1-2 hours 2+ hours Impossible! Don't bother!
Making Traffic Disappear is Most Desired Super Power
Q12 - Which super power would you like to have?
4.9%
19%
21%
26%
29%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
Super strength
Invisibility
Instant mortgage approval
Flying
Make traffic disappear
Do you plan to leave the country if…?
[CATEGORY NAME] [VALUE]
[CATEGORY NAME] [VALUE]
[CATEGORY NAME] [VALUE]
Economic Outlook
Macro Economic Summary
2.9%
GDP 2016-Q3
1.7%
Job Growth 2016-09
5.0%
Unemployment 2016-09
3.6%
Consumption 2016-Q3
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Q2-11 Q4-11 Q2-12 Q4-12 Q2-13 Q4-13 Q2-14 Q4-14 Q2-15 Q4-15 Q2-16
AN
NU
AL
PER
CEN
T C
HA
NG
E, C
HA
IN-T
YPE
(200
9) $
Slow Economic Growth – Below 3% for 11Years
US GDP 2015: 2.6%; 2016 Q1: .8% Q2: 1.4% Q3: 2.9%
ANNUALLY QUARTERLY
2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1946 (-2.8%)
SERIES: GDP SOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Consumer Confidence Dropped in October Next Release 11/29/16
October 2016: 98.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
IND
EX, 1
00=
1985
SERIES:ConsumerConfidenceSOURCE:TheConferenceBoard
Unemployment Rate Falling
September 2016: US 5.0% & CA 5.5%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14% US-CA CA US
SERIES: Unemployment Rate SOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
The U-6 rate covers the unemployed, underemployed and those who are not looking but who want a job
Unemployment by CA Metro
3.2%
3.8%
4.1%
4.4%
4.7%
5.2%
5.4%
5.5%
6.2%
7.5%
7.5%
8.3%
9.2%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
San Francisco
San Jose
Orange County
Oakland
San Diego
Los Angeles
Sacramento
Ventura
Inland Empire
Modesto
Stockton MSA
Fresno MSA
Bakersfield
SERIES:TotalNonfarmEmploymentSOURCE:CAEmploymentDevelopmentDivision
September 2016: California 5.5%
-150,000
-100,000
-50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
MO
NTH
TO
MO
NTH
CH
AN
GES
CA Jobs Are Back
Recession Job Losses: 1.3 million, Since Jan’10: +2.2 million
SERIES:TotalNonfarmEmploymentSOURCE:CAEmploymentDevelopmentDivision
Ca Leads Nation in Job Growth 2.3 v. 1.7
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
AN
NU
AL
PER
CEN
T C
HA
NG
E
California US
SERIES:TotalNonfarmEmploymentSOURCE:USBureauofLaborStatistics,CAEmploymentDevelopmentDivision
California Job Growth by Industry
-1.6% -1.3%
0.4% 1.1%
1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
2.3% 2.9% 3.1%
3.4% 3.6%
4.0% 4.8%
6.3%
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7%
Nondurable Goods Durable Goods
Finance & Insurance Retail Trade
Wholesale Trade Government
Transportation, Warehousing & Utilities Information
Admistrative & Support & Waste Services Health Care & Social Assistance
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing Leisure & Hospitality
Construction Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Educational Services
SERIES:TotalNonfarmEmploymentByIndustrySOURCE:USBureauofLaborStatistics,CAEmploymentDevelopmentDivision
September 2016: CA +2.3%, +379,800 (YTY)
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
Silicon Valley Still Leads But Central Valley Has Housing
1.2%
1.6%
1.6%
1.7%
2.2%
2.3%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
2.9%
3.6%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0%
Ventura
Los Angeles
Bakersfield
Stockton
San Diego
Inland Empire
Fresno MSA
San Francisco
Oakland
Modesto
Orange
Sacramento
San Jose
SERIES:TotalNonfarmEmploymentSOURCE:CAEmploymentDevelopmentDivision
September 2016: CA +2.3%, +379,800 (YTY)
U.S. Economic Outlook
SERIES: U.S. Economic Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 2017f
US GDP 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 1.5% 2.2%
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% 1.4%
Unemployment 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 4.9% 4.7%
CPI 3.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.1% 1.4% 2.1%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
2.5% 3.2% -1.4% 2.7% 3.4% 2.7% 2.7%
30-Yr FRM 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0%
California Economic Outlook
SERIES: CA Economic Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 2017f
Nonfarm Job Growth
1.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.7% 2.3% 1.6%
Unemployment Rate
11.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.2% 5.5% 5.3%
Population Growth
0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
Real Disposable Income, % Change
3.5% 4.7% -1.1% 3.2% 3.6% 2.9% 3.5%
The “New” Normal
The “New” Housing Normal
• Lack of supply hinders sales • High-end: discretionary & slowing • Low/Moderate-end: demand continues unabated • Urban coastal CA slowing • Inland and Central and Northern CA growing • Migration patterns mirror housing affordability and jobs • Demographics is Destiny: Boomers aren’t moving, even when
they retire
Supply: Listings
UII remained at low levels Below last year
Oct. 2015: 3.6 Months; Oct. 2016: 3.4 Months
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family Homes SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
So Cal supply down in all counties San Bernardino dropping most
-3%
8%
4% 1%
7%
-6%
3% 2%
-10%
-3%
-7% -8% -5%
-2%
16%
-6%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Sales Active Listings Year-to-Year % Chg.
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
October 2016
Where is the inventory?
Long-Time Homeowners are not moving as in the past Low rate on current mortgage Low property taxes Capital gains hit Where can I afford to go? Could not qualify for a mortgage today Remodel and stay
Are we headed for the “European Model” where children inherit the home of their parents? One more thing…Secular decline in marriage
Fewer housing units being turned over since the Great Recession
4.2%
4.8%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
CA US
SERIES:Percentofexistingsingle-familyhomesbeingsoldSOURCE:CensusBureau,AmericanCommunitySurvey,Moody’sAnalytics,C.A.R.
Housing Turnover Rate (Single-Family Homes only)
Years Owned Home Before Selling
10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12 All Sellers
SERIES: 2016 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Owners Investing in Staying Put ?
$3.9 Billion through July
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
$ Bi
llio
ns
Year-to-Date Through July
Alterations/Additions Reach All-Time High & Gaining Steam Up 16% from 2015 YTD levels
SOURCE: California Homebuilding Foundation (CHF)/Construction Industry Research Board (CIRB) Downloaded from Moody’s Analytics
Boomers Not Moving as Often
0.9% 0.8% 1.9%
5.7%
10.7%
21.3% 24.0%
31.8%
24.4%
9.0% 11.0%
12.4% 14.2%
12.0% 8.9%
7.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
1978 & Earlier 1979 to 1984 1985 to 1989 1990 to 1994 1995 to 1999 2000 to 2005 2005 to 2009 2010 to 2013
California Homeowners by Length of Tenure, 2013
Under 55 55+
SERIES: Distribution of Home Ownership by Year Moved In SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013 American Housing Survey
71% of Californian’s aged 55+ haven’t moved since 1999
Most Have Equity in their Home
Do you have equity in your home?
Yes, 92%
No, 8%
SERIES: 2016 Baby Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Majority Do Not Plan to Sell Home When they Retire
Do you plan to sell your current home when you retire?
Yes, 36%
No, 64%
SERIES: 2016 Baby Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Do you worry about your children not having the same opportunities to succeed as you did?
Do you worry about your children or grandchildren not having the same opportunities to succeed as you did?
Yes, they will have worse
opportunities, 52%
No, they will have have
better opportunities,
24%
About the same, 24%
SERIES: 2016 Generations / Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Time to talk: ¾ Plan of have already Helped Children with Down Payment
Are you planning to provide help for your children to buy a home by contributing to their down payment or mortgage payments?
Yes, I am planning to help, 53% Yes, I have
already helped, 24%
No, 23%
SERIES: 2016 Generations / Boomer Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California’s Single-Family Housing Stock
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
5,000,000
5,500,000
6,000,000
6,500,000
7,000,000
7,500,000
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Owner-Occupied (left) Renter-Occupied (right)
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS) Downloaded from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
More Single Family Units Now Rentals
6,919,164
1,940,607
6,527,730
2,674,808
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000
SF Owners SF Renters
2000 2005 2010 2015
SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau, Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS) Downloaded from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Potentially between 400,000 and 700,000 SF Rentals that Used to be Owner-Occupied
Supply: New Housing Units
“Missing” 65,000 New Units Annually
SERIES: California New Housing Permits SOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Single Family Multi-Family
Household Growth:
165,000/yr.
2015: 95,822 (42,959 sf, 52,863 mf) 2016p: 98,300 total units
Most Underbuilt Counties in California
381,300
174,833 162,740 127,542 141,162
95,245 98,149 105,586 66,054
44,772 88,134
35,426 44,923 18,141
40,434 14,901 18,108 31,255
6,349 10,890 0
50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000
New Jobs vs. New Permits (2010-2015)
Jobs
Permits
SOURCE: California Employment Development Department, Construction Industry Research Board
Affordability
Housing Affordability Best in C.V.
57 56 56 54 52 50 50 50
48 46 45 45 45
41
32 31 30 29
27 26 26 25 25 22
20 20 19 18 17 14 13
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
SERIES:HousingAffordabilityIndexSOURCE:CALIFORNIAASSOCIATIONOFREALTORS®
2016-Q2: % able to purchase median-priced home
CA Housing Affordability Peaked Q1 2012
California vs. U.S. 1984-2016 % OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional Buyers SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
31%
57%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% CA US
Annual Quarterly
$28,430
$45,810
$72,360 $67,920
$93,550 $92,170
$101,260
$126,560
$92,571
-$10,000
$10,000
$30,000
$50,000
$70,000
$90,000
$110,000
$130,000
Retail Salespersons
Chefs and Head Cooks
Elementary School
Teachers
Firefighters Police and Sherriff's Patrol
Officers
Computer Programmers
Registered Nurses
Software Developers
(Applications)
Min. Inc Required to Buy a Med.
Home
Wages v. Income Required to Qualify
SOURCE:BureauofLaborStatistics,C.A.R.
2015 Annual Mean Wage
California
Share of First-Time Buyers remains Below Long-Run Average
29.5%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average
Long Run Average = 38%
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Los Angeles: Net Exit to Inland Empire and Kern County
County Moved To/From
Total Number
Moved to Los Angeles
County
Total Number
Moved from Los Angeles
County Total Net Migration
Inland Empire 25,777 50,531 -24,754
Kern 2,466 10,460 -7,816
Orange 23,887 31,435 -7,548
San Diego 8,916 7,240 1,676
Ventura 7,464 7,543 -79
San Francisco: Affordability & Jobs Drive Migration
County Moved To/From
Total Number Moved to San Francisco County
Total Number Moved from San Francisco County Total Net Migration
Alameda 3983 10345 -6362
San Mateo 6161 7984 -1823
Contra Costa 1856 2998 -1142
Sonoma 557 1602 -1045
Marin 1428 1918 -490
Napa 0 243 -243
Solano 796 815 -19
Santa Clara 4041 2691 1350
The median income in Oakland is $47,000, which translates to $1,175/month for rent, but the average monthly rent in Oakland is $3,000.
Austin: 70% Raleigh: 40% Portland: 30%
Demand & Desire for Homeownership
Real Estate is Still Considered the Best Long Term Investment
SOURCE: Gallup
Millennials: American Dream is still Important
4% 6%
34% 31%
25%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Not at All Important Of Little Importance Moderately Important Important Very Important
How important is fulfilling the 'American Dream' to you? SERIES: 2016 Generations / Millennials Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
…And Homeownership is part of it
18% 18% 16%
14%
12% 11%
10%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Owning a home A fulfilling job Having a family Education Seeing the world Helping others Becoming wealthy
Which factors contribute to your ideal of the `American Dream` SERIES: 2016 Generations / Millennials Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Many Millennials Also Believe Buying a Home Is a Safe Investment
SERIES: 2016 Generations / Millennials Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
1%
5%
12%
45%
37%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Strongly Disagree Disagree Neighter Agree nor Disagree
Agree Strongly Agree
Q. Do you think home purchase is still a safe investment?
Nearly ½ Renters Plan to Buy a Home
77
Q. When do you plan to buy your next home?
9.6%
13%
14%
11%
24%
28%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Within a year
In 2 Years
3-5 Years
In 5+ Years
Not sure
No plans to buy
55% of Renters Have Made Preparations to Buy a Home
78
1.0%
9.0%
12.0%
16%
21%
34%
45%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%
Other
Pre-qualified with a lender
Consulted credit counselor/financial advisor
Spoken to a REALTOR®
Searched for home buying process information online
Searched for homes
No preparations
Q. Have you made any of the following preparations to buy a home? Please select all that apply.
69% of Millennial renters would look into purchasing if knew about lower down-payments
No, 31%
Yes, 69%
All Millennial Owners
If You knew you could qualify with lower down-payment, would you start to look for a house? SERIES: 2016 Generations / Millennials Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Only 19% Know about FHA Loans
Yes, [VALUE]
No, [VALUE]
Are you aware of FHA Loans?
FHA backed loans only require a 3.5% down-payment. SERIES: 2016 Generations / Millennials Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Student Loan Debt: 47% (34 or Under)
Student Debt Delayed Decisions to Move out of Family Member’s Home After College?
SERIES: 2016 Student Loan Debt and Housing Report SOURCE: National Association of Realtors®
% o
f Lo
an
bo
rro
we
rs
2016: Market Conditions Annual Housing Market survey
Market Remained Very Competitive
53% 52%
4.0 4.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
% with Multiple Offers # of Multiple offers (Average)
SERIES: 2016 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Investor Buyers? Dropping Still Have Demand in Lower-Priced Segments
SERIES: 2016 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Investment/Rental Property Vacation/Second Home % to Total Sales
Demand for Investment Properties remained at the Lowest level since 2009
International Buyers Dropping
8%
6%
5% 6% 6%
8%
6%
4%
3%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q. Was the buyer an international buyer – a person who was a citizen of another country who wished to purchase residential real estate in the U.S.?
SERIES: 2016 Housing Market Survey SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
The share of international buyers dropped to the lowest level in 9 years
Local Housing Markets
Valencia
Sales of Single Family Homes
Valencia, October 2016: 62 Units +8.2% 2015, +0.8% 2016 YTD, -1.6% YTY
SOURCE:ClarusMarketMetrics
Median Price of Single Family Homes
Valencia, October 2016: $580,000 Down 1.4% MTM, Up 6.9% YTY
SOURCE:ClarusMarketMetrics
For Sale Properties
Valencia, October 2016: 242 Units -0.5% 2015, -5.4% 2016 YTD, +3.0% YTY
SOURCE:ClarusMarketMetrics
Note: “For Sale Properties” represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as “Active” any point in time during the month.
Canyon Country
Sales of Single Family Homes
Canyon Country, October 2016: 47 Units +17.0% 2015, +0.2% 2016 YTD, -23.0% YTY
SOURCE:ClarusMarketMetrics
Median Price of Single Family Homes
Canyon Country, October 2016: $505,000 Up 5.2% MTM, Up 10.4% YTY
SOURCE:ClarusMarketMetrics
For Sale Properties
Canyon Country, October 2016: 179 Units +9.9% 2015, -10.8% 2016 YTD, -20.8% YTY
Note: “For Sale Properties” represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as “Active” any point in time during the month.
SOURCE:ClarusMarketMetrics
Saugus
Sales of Single Family Homes
Saugus, October 2016: 54 Units +1.2% 2015, +11.2% 2016 YTD, +20.0% YTY
SOURCE:ClarusMarketMetrics
Median Price of Single Family Homes
Saugus, October 2016: $549,500 Up 4.6% MTM, Up 14.7% YTY
SOURCE:ClarusMarketMetrics
For Sale Properties
Saugus, October 2016: 207 Units -2.9% 2015, -4.6% 2016 YTD, +6.2% YTY
Note: “For Sale Properties” represents the overall supply that exist throughout the entire month, including any listings that appear as “Active” any point in time during the month.
SOURCE:ClarusMarketMetrics
2017 Forecast
Varying Market Expectations for 2017
13% 25% 29%
3.0%
40%
44% 35%
35%
47%
31% 36%
62%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Prices Sales Inventory Interest rates
Up
Flat
Down
Q1 - What do you think will happen to the California real estate market in 2017?
California Housing Market Outlook
SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 2017f
SFH Resales (000s) 422.6 439.8 414.9 382.7 408.8 407.3 413.0
% Change 1.4% 4.1% -5.9% -7.8% 6.8% -0.4% 1.4%
Median Price ($000s)
$286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $446.9 $474.4 $503.9 $525.6
% Change -6.2% 11.6% 27.5% 9.8% 6.2% 6.2% 4.3%
Housing Affordability Index
53% 51% 36% 30% 31% 33% 29%
30-Yr FRM 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 4.0%
Sales down for 2016 but Improve in 2017; Price will Grow Steadily this Year and Next
SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
407.3 413.0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017f
Tho
usa
nd
s
Sales of Existing Detached Homes
$504 $526
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017f
Tho
usa
nd
s
Median Price Price
(Thousand)Units
(Thousand)
CA: Dollar Volume Up 5.8% in 2016, Up 5.8% in 2017
SERIES: CA Housing Market Outlook SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$301
$244
$164
$133 $131 $127 $121 $140
$169 $171 $194 $205
$217
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016p 2017f
$ Volume of Sales Percent Change
$ in Billion % Change
Take 5 for 2017
“the more affordable the market, the better it is doing “
1. CA home sales up slightly – down on $$$ coast; up $ inland
2. CA median price up 4.3% – flat $$$, up $ 3. Demand drivers (jobs; income; mortgage rates;
household formation) strong 4. Boomers staying put 5. Affordability concerns fuel out-migration of
Millennials in search of housing they can afford
Take 5: 2017 Market
2017 Challenges & Opportunities
[CATEGORY NAME], [VALUE] Lack of inventory,
28%
Mortagage rate increase, 10%
[CATEGORY NAME], 6%
Lack of Affordability Biggest Challenge
Q2 - What will be the biggest challenge for the housing market in 2017?
2017 Wild Cards
• Economy Under Trump • Unexpected rise in rates • Economic collapse • Tech giants crumble • Hit to equities • Global instability • Other Black Swans…
2017 Opportunities
• Up your game – Always a good option • What business are YOU in? • Educate first time-home buyers – talk to their parents • Become well versed on down payment assistance
programs, debt management and improving credit to turn renters into buyers.
• Don’t give up on international buyers • Stay involved & stay current • Get married!
Book Recommendations
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Leslie’s Book Recommendations
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Housingmatters.car.org
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