services - gmac annual and fourth quarter earnings
TRANSCRIPT
Full Year and Fourth Quarter Earnings
March 13, 20073:30 p.m. ET
Contact GMAC Investor Relations at (866) 710-4623 or [email protected]
REVISED
Forward Looking StatementsIn the presentation that follows and in related comments by GMAC LLC (“GMAC”) management, our use of the words “expect”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “forecast”, “objective”, “plan”, “could”, “should”, “would”, “may”, “goal”, “project”, “outlook”, “priorities”, “targets”, “intend”, “evaluate”, “pursue”, “seek”and similar expressions is intended to identify forward looking statements.
While these statements represent our current judgment on what the future may hold, and we believe these judgments are reasonable, actual results may differ materially due to numerous important factors that are described in GMAC’s most recent report on SEC Form 10-K, which may be revised or supplemented in subsequent reports on SEC Forms 10-Q and 8-K. Such factors include, among others, the following: securing low cost funding to sustain growth for GMAC and ResCap and maintaining the mutually beneficial relationship between GMAC and General Motors; changes in economic conditions, currency exchange rates, significant terrorist attacks or political instability in the major markets where we operate; recent developments in the residential mortgage market, especially in the nonprime sector; changes in the laws, regulations, policies or other activities of governments, agencies and similar organizations where such actions may affect the production, licensing, distribution or sale of our products, the cost thereof or applicable tax rates; and the outbreak or escalation of hostilities between the United States and any foreign power or territory and changes in international political conditions may continue to affect both the United States and the global economy and may increase other risks. Investors are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. GMAC undertakes no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements unless required by law. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures included within this presentation is provided in the supplemental charts.
Use of the term “loans” describes products associated with direct and indirect lending activities of GMAC’s global operations. The specific products include retail installment sales contracts, loans, lines of credit, leases or other financing products. The term “originate” refers to GMAC’s purchase, acquisition or direct origination of various “loan” products.
2
2006 Performance Highlights
On Nov. 30th, successfully completed sale of 51% of GMAC
― Established independent credit rating
Q4 2006 net income of $1.0 billion and $2.1 billion for full-year 2006
― Compares to Q4 2005 net income of $0.1 billion and full-year $2.3 billion
U.S. residential mortgage market is in the midst of a radical slow down
― Slowing home price appreciation and nonprime credit weakness having significant negative impact
Steady operating performance at auto finance in 2006
― Results were stable year-over-year despite one-time debt buy back costs
Insurance reported record earnings in 2006 with robust underwriting results
― Successfully rebalanced investment portfolio towards higher fixed income and lower equity weightings
3
Restatement
GMAC has restated its historical financial information for the years 2001 – 2005 and the first three quarters of 2006
Technical requirements of FAS 133 primary driver for restatement
Restatement has no economic or cash impact
4
Q1-Q3($ millions, after tax) 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002Previously reported net income $1,248 $2,394 $2,913 $2,793 $1,870Restatements, net of tax (139) (112) (19) (287) 333Restated Net Income $1,109 $2,282 $2,894 $2,506 $2,203Percent change (11.1%) (4.7%) (0.7%) (10.3%) 17.8%
1. Includes gross impact of sale of equity interest in a regional homebuilder of about $259 million, net of tax2. Includes $568 million capital gains in Q4 due to rebalancing the investment portfolio3. Includes lower income from our former Commercial Mortgage unit, attributable to 21% ownership following the sale on March 23, 2006
vs.100% ownership in 2005 and deterioration in Commercial Finance related to credit reserves
Operating Earnings Walk 2005 vs. 2006
$2,029$2,721
$710
($474)
($89)
($839)
.00
.00
.00
.00
2005OperatingEarnings
Auto Finance ResCap Insurance Other 2006OperatingEarnings
($ millions)
1 2 3
5
Full Year Net Income
6
($ in millions) 2006 2005 ChangeGlobal Automotive Finance $791 $880 ($89)ResCap1 182 1,021 (839)Insurance2 1,127 417 710Other3 (71) 403 (474)Operating Earnings $2,029 $2,721 ($692)LLC conversion 791 - 791 Goodwill impairment (695) (439) (256) Net Income $2,125 $2,282 ($157)
1. Includes gross impact of sale of equity interest in a regional homebuilder of about $259 million, net of tax2. Includes $568 million capital gains in Q4 due to rebalancing the investment portfolio3. Includes lower income from our former Commercial Mortgage unit, attributable to 21% ownership following the sale on March 23, 2006
vs.100% ownership in 2005 and deterioration in Commercial Finance related to credit reserves
Fourth Quarter Net Income
1. Includes $568 million capital gains due to rebalancing the investment portfolio2. Q4 includes 21% ownership of our former Commercial Mortgage unit following the sale on March 23, 2006 vs. 100% ownership in 2005
as well as deterioration in Commercial Finance related to credit reserves
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($ in millions) Q4 2006 Q4 2005 ChangeGlobal Automotive Finance $147 $180 ($33)ResCap (651) 118 (769)Insurance1 735 133 602Other2 (6) 120 (126)Operating Earnings $225 $551 ($326)LLC conversion 791 - 791 Goodwill impairment - (439) 439 Net Income $1,016 $112 $904
Moving(Securitization/Sales)
Storage(HFI/Servicing)
Lending(Lending Receivables)
International
ResCap – 2006 Key Metrics
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Negative nonprime valuations
Increase in loan loss provisions on nonprime
Nonprime credit issues in warehouse lending
Increased origination volumes
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$70019
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
06
$ bi
llion
s
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
B&C Mkt $ RCG B&C Share %
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Jan-0
1Ju
l-01
Jan-0
2Ju
l-02
Jan-0
3Ju
l-03
Jan-0
4Ju
l-04
Jan-0
5Ju
l-05
Jan-0
6Ju
l-06
Jan-0
7
Y/Y
% C
hang
e
Existing New
• Cyclical downturn in the nonprime mortgage business occurred very rapidly following one of the industry’s strongest historical periods of performance from 2001 to 2005
• ResCap leaned away from the nonprime market in 2006, but still held substantial exposure when dislocation occurred in 4Q
ResCap – Changing MarketDeterioration in the Nonprime Mortgage Market Drove a Net Loss at ResCap in4Q 2006
Change in Median Home Price U.S. Nonprime Market Share
Source: U.S Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, as of December 20069
($ millions) Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006 Q4 2006 Total
Operating Earnings $201.5 $548.1 $83.4 ($651.2) $181.8
LLC Benefit - - - 523.2 523.2
Net Income/(Loss) $201.5 $548.1 $83.4 ($128.0) $705.0
Source: Inside Mortgage
ResCap – Impact on BusinessLong term fundamental earnings potential of the franchise remains solid
Losses are confined to areas with nonprime exposure
― Incremental provisioning in the Held for Investment portfolio due to anticipated increased frequency and severity of loss
― Mark-to-market adjustments in the Held for Sale portfolio
― Specific reserves on Warehouse lending assets
A new strategic plan is being implemented to return our U.S. mortgage business to profitability
― Significantly reduced nonprime origination volume through tighter underwriting criteria and pricing changes
― Nonprime Held for Investment portfolio runoff of $20 billion in 2007
― Structural expense reduction and acceleration of prime and nonprime U.S. mortgage integration plan
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27%
37%
19%
15%2%
48%
25%
14%
8%5%
Production for the Year Ended 12/31/2006
$162 Billion
Government
Prime Second-Lien
Prime Non-Conforming
NonprimePrime Conforming
1. Excludes loans for which we acted as a subservicer totaling an unpaid principal balance of $55.4 billion as of 12/31/2006
ResCap – U.S. Production and ServicingServicing Portfolio
at 12/31/2006 $412 Billion1
Nonprime
Nonprime
11
($ millions) 12/31/2006 12/31/2005 % Change 12/31/2006 12/31/2005 % ChangeU.S. Production
Prime Loan Production $34.3 $28.6 20% $131.0 $123.2 6%Nonprime Loan Production 6.9 12.1 (43%) $30.6 $35.9 (15%)
U.S. Servicing Portfolio $412.4 $354.9 16%
Three Months Ended Twelve Months Ended
12%
16%
35%
33%
1% 3%
76%
10%
13%
1%
Nonprime HFI Portfolio by Vintage Year Ended 12/31/2006
$48 Billion
ResCap – Held for Investment Portfolio
At the end of the second quarter, ResCap began to limit the addition of nonprime exposure to the HFI portfolio
Nonprime portfolio reduced approximately $4.6 billion year over year
Total HFI Portfolio Year Ended 12/31/2006
$69 Billion
Prime Conforming
Prime Non-Conforming Nonprime
Prime Second-Lien
Nonprime broken down by vintage
Nonprime
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Pre 2002
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Asset quality weaker due to slowing housing market and stress in nonprime mortgage market
Nonprime assets continue to drive increase in delinquencies and nonaccruals
Declines in home price appreciation increased severity of losses
Allowance for loan losses increased to 2.17% at 12/31/2006 from 1.55% at 12/31/2005 for the HFI portfolio
ResCap – Held for Investment Portfolio - Credit Quality
* MLHFI – Mortgage Loans Held for Investment. The total MLHFI is $69.4 billion for 2006 & $69.0 billion for 2005 and is included in the balance sheet under the caption "Finance receivables and loans, net of unearned income"
9.1% 9.0%9.2% 9.0%
8.4% 8.3%
9.2%
10.5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0.2%0.2% 0.2%
0.1% 0.2%0.2%
0.2%0.3%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Nonaccrual Loans as a % of total MLHFI *
Net charge-offs as a % of total MLHFI *
2005 2006
2005 2006
13
0.00%0.02%
0.00%
0.03%
0.00%
0.03%0.02%
0.00%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0.05% 0.12% 0.08% 0.50% 0.41% 0.24% 0.21%
9.29%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Asset quality weaker due to severe stress with some nonprime counterparties
Repurchase and liquidity issues continue to affect some nonprime market participants
Allowance for loan losses increased to 2.66% at 12/31/2006 from 1.38% at 12/31/2005 for lending receivables
Warehouse receivables represented $8.8 billion of lending receivables with about 25% supported with nonprime collateral on 12/31/2006
ResCap - Lending Receivables Portfolio - Credit Quality
Total lending receivables are $14.9 billion for 2006 & $13.6 billion for 2005 and are included in the balance sheet under the caption “Finance receivables and loans, net of unearned income”
Net charge-offs as a % of total lending receivables
14
Nonaccrual Assets as a % of total lending receivables
20062005
2005 2006
( )
ResCap – International
Net Income for the Period Ended ($ millions)
$24
$51
$90
$170
2003 2004 2005 2006
Production for the Period Ended ($ billions)
$8.0
$14.0$16.5
$27.8
2003 2004 2005 2006
International net income increased 89% year over year
Production increased 68% year over year
Business opportunities continue to expand
15
ResCap – Liquidity
Strong levels of contingent liquidity available
Only $1.3 billion unsecured debt maturities in 2007
Good access to global markets
16
($ in billions) 2006Cash and Marketable Securities $2Unused Bank Facilities 3Unused Conduit Capacity 51Unused Whole Loan Facilities 8Total Available Liquidity $64
ResCap – Outlook
Solid franchise, strong capital and liquidity provide strength and stability to operate through mortgage market cycles
― Diverse franchise
Top 10 market share position in originations and servicing
Growth in servicing portfolio continues to enhance income
Third party servicing activities continue to expand
Business Capital and International businesses continue to demonstrate strong financial performance
― Capital and liquidity remain a competitive strength
Over $2.0 billion of liquidity currently available
New facilities totaling $2.3 billion established to address funding needs for hard to finance assets
Year end equity capitalization $7.6 billion
GMAC is able to contribute capital in order to maintain an appropriate ResCap equity level and support investment grade ratings 17
Source: Inside Mortgage Finance Feb 2, 2007 and Feb 9, 2007
Company Volume ($Billions)
2006 Rank
Volume ($Billions)
2006 Rank
Countrywide $462.5 1 $1,298.4 2
Wells Fargo 397.6 2 1,341.9 1
WaMu 195.7 3 711.0 3
CitiMortgage 183.5 4 521.5 5
Chase Home Fin 172.9 5 674.1 4
B of A Mortgage 167.9 6 419.5 6
ResCap 161.8 7 412.4 7
Wachovia 104.7 8 175.2 9
IndyMac 90.0 9 148.0 12
Originations Servicing
Strong lease and retail originations
While delinquencies trended higher, losses remained at historically low levels
U.S. residuals down slightly, reflecting weaker used car prices
NAO margins improved in Q4, IO still under pressure
Auto Finance – 2006 Key Metrics
Originations
Credit Losses
Lease Residuals
Margins
18
Auto Finance – Consumer Originations
2006 originations increased slightly from 2005 levels― Strong lease growth and GM’s successful 72 hour sale helped drive volumes
($ billions)
$61$57 $59
$51$55
$10 $10 $8 $7 $6
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
New Used
Total Units 3,423 3,082 3,083 2,622 2,575(in 000s)
19
Sales Proceeds on Scheduled U.S. Lease Terminations
Overall trends remain stable― 2006 performance was down slightly reflecting weaker used car prices
Note: Figures represent GMAC serviced portfolio
1
$12,646 $12,549
$13,277
$13,949 $13,848
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006Lease terminations 738 611 414 283 272 (Units 000s)
($ per vehicle)
36-Month Leases (Adjusted for Vehicle Mix)
36-Month Leases (Adjusted for Vehicle Mix)
20
Auto Finance – Consumer Credit Quality
Delinquencies trended higher in 2006, reflecting a somewhat weaker consumer credit environment
Losses remain at historically low levels
2005 2006
0.95% 0.91%1.09% 0.96% 1.03%
0.83% 0.95% 1.05%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Annualized credit losses as a % of average managed retail contracts
2005 2006
2.16%2.06%
2.34% 2.40%
2.21% 2.27%
2.47%2.41%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Delinquencies as a % of serviced retail assets30 days or more past due
20062005
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Insurance – 2006 Key Metrics
Written Revenue*
Underwriting Results
Combined Ratio
Investment Income
Flat despite decline in GM retail volume and increased competition in U.S. personal lines
Strong underwriting results driven by higher earned premiums and lower loss experience
Improved combined ratio of 92.3% in 2006 vs. 93.9% in 2005
Rebalanced investment portfolio to reduce capital requirements
* Includes Written Premium 22
Insurance – Consolidated Earnings
Favorable underlying core earnings trend continues
1. Core Earnings = Underwriting income + Investment income (net of tax)2. Portfolio was rebalanced in Q4 2006 resulting in significant capital gains3. Combined Ratio = Sum of all reported losses and expenses (excluding interest and income tax expense) divided by the total of
premiums and service revenues earned and other income
23
($ millions) 2006 2005 2006 2005
Core Earnings1 $170 $99 $499 $361
Capital Gains2 569 38 652 72
Interest Expense (4) (4) (24) (16)
Net Income $735 $133 $1,127 $417
Combined Ratio3 92.5% 92.8% 92.3% 93.9%
Fourth Quarter Full Year
$3.9 $4.5 $5.1 $5.3
$7.0
$0.6
$2.4$2.2$1.7$1.2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Fixed Income Equities
Insurance – Investment Portfolio
Rebalanced portfolio in Q4 2006, reducing equity exposure from over 30% to under 10%
($ billions)
24
2006 YECash and Marketable Securities* $18Unused Bank Facilities 32Unused Conduit Capacity 72Unused Whole Loan Facility 46Total Available Liquidity $167
GMAC and ResCap maintain strong liquidity position
― Successfully completed GMAC and ResCap unsecured bond deals in December
― GMAC completed landmark wholesale securitization transaction in February
GMAC and ResCap will continue to balance prudent liquidity management with reductions in cost of borrowing
Global Liquidity
($ billions)
* Includes $15 billion cash and cash equivalents and $3 billion invested in marketable securitiesTotal does not sum to $167 billion due to rounding.
25
GM Exposure
Significant reduction in credit exposure to GMExposure monitored frequentlyNew governance mandates that any new credit exposure over $5 million with affiliated parties (includes both GM and Cerberus) requires GMAC Board approval
Secured Exposure to GM Unsecured Exposure to GM($ billions)($ billions)
* Represents $4B undrawn GM credit line that expired on Sept. 30, 2006
$6.2 - $10.2*
26
$1.0$6.2
9/30/2005 12/31/2006
$4.1$2.1
9/30/2005 12/31/2006
With the closing of the GMAC sale transaction, GMAC has emerged as an independent company with an improved credit profile
― New ownership
― Independent governance
― Strengthened capital position
― New and expanded funding facilities
― Formalized long-term operating agreements with GM
― More diversified business strategies
GMAC Strategic Focus
― Transform GMAC from a captive operation into an independent globally-diversified financial services company
“New” GMAC
27
Implement changes to U.S. mortgage operations to address deteriorating market environment
Diversify revenue sources in all major business lines
Continue profitable expansion overseas
Grow fee-based businesses (e.g., SmartAuction, fee for servicing, etc.)
Capitalize on cross-sell opportunities across GMAC’s 18 million customers*
Drive efficiencies on cost side of the business
Strategic Priorities – Operations
* Based on outstanding consumer loans and contracts; aggregate figures do not adjust for overlap
28
Reduce all-in cost of borrowings
― Continue to diversify across markets, asset types, currencies and investors
― Reduce expensive “legacy” debt burden
― Expand use of securitization programs
Maintain appropriate liquidity cushion
― Continue executing whole loan sales in Auto Finance and Mortgage to reduce risk, free up capital and generate liquidity
― Maintain significant retail auto loan “dry powder”
Assets which can be monetized quickly through committed whole loan and conduit facilities
Projected funding in 2007-2008 consistent with 2005-2006 levels
Strategic Priorities – Funding
29
Continuing pressures at ResCap likely to constrain overall GMAC results near term
― Expect continued pressure from:
Softening US housing market
Adjustment of nonprime mortgage market to credit and liquidity issues
Weak performance from nonprime component of HFI portfolio
Highest priority is implementing changes at ResCap to address rapidly changing mortgage market
― Nonprime mortgage origination volume sharply reduced
― Expanding remediation activities on delinquent loans
― Right-sizing structural cost base
― Capitalize on opportunities arising from market downturn
― Maximize earnings from ResCap’s other businesses
2007 Outlook
30
Global Auto Finance is well-positioned to generate attractive returns
― Solid foundation for growth
― Improved cost of funds over time
― Revenue diversification
Insurance is expected to deliver another robust year
― Positive underwriting results
― Solid investment returns
― Diversification of service contracts and dealer inventory insurance
GMAC’s long-term prospects remain favorable
― ResCap’s fundamental earnings potential remains solid
― Auto finance and insurance operations should offset pressure at ResCap in near-term and provide base for growth in long-term
2007 Outlook (cont.)
31
2006― Record performance at Insurance group and strong operating results in Auto
Finance helped offset weakness in U.S. mortgage sector
2007― Continued solid performance at Insurance and Auto Finance anticipated
― ResCap profitability likely to remain constrained near term as pressure on nonprime asset values persist
Prime mortgage lending and servicing operations continue to run profitably in the U.S. and abroad
― Strong liquidity position at GMAC and ResCapSignificant cash balances, large-scale committed funding facilities and access to unsecured markets offer extensive financial flexibility
GMAC enters 2007 as a fundamentally stronger company with improved credit profile― Better positioned to withstand near term challenges
― Greater flexibility to pursue long term growth possibilities
Summary
32
Supplemental Charts
The following supplemental charts are provided to reconcileadjusted financial data comprehended in the primary chart set with GAAP-based data (per GMAC’s financial statements) and/or provide clarification with regard to definition of non-GAAP terminology
Restatements by Quarter for 2005 and 2006
S1
(in millions) Q1 2006 Q2 2006 Q3 2006Previously reported net income $672 $900 ($324)Restatements, net of tax (177) (113) 151Restated Net Income $495 $787 ($173)Percent change (26.3%) (12.6%) (46.6%)
(in millions) Q1 2005 Q2 2005 Q3 2005 Q4 2005Previously reported net income $728 $816 $675 $175Restatements, net of tax (104) 158 (103) (63)Restated Net Income $624 $974 $572 $112Percent change (14.3%) 19.4% (15.3%) (36.0%)
Reconciliation of Net Income to Operating Earnings
S2
Q4 2006 Global Auto($ millions) Finance ResCap Insurance Other TotalGAAP net income (loss) $530 ($128) $735 ($121) $1,016Less: LLC conversion benefit 383 523 - (115) 791Operating Earnings $147 ($651) $735 ($6) $225
Q4 2005 Global Auto($ millions) Finance ResCap Insurance Other TotalGAAP net income (loss) $180 $118 $133 ($319) $112Add: goodwill impairment charges - - - 439 439Operating Earnings $180 $118 $133 $120 $551
2006 Global Auto($ millions) Finance ResCap Insurance Other TotalGAAP net income (loss) $1,174 $705 $1,127 ($881) $2,125Less: LLC conversion benefit 383 523 - (115) 791Add: goodwill impairment charges - - - 695 695Operating Earnings $791 $182 $1,127 ($71) $2,029
2005 Global Auto($ millions) Finance ResCap Insurance Other TotalGAAP net income (loss) $880 $1,021 $417 ($36) $2,282Add: goodwill impairment charges - - - 439 439Operating Earnings $880 $1,021 $417 $403 $2,721* Goodwill impairment charges of $439 million after-tax ($712 mil pre-tax); $398 million after-tax ($648 mil pre-tax) related to Commercial Finance Group and remaining $41 million after-tax ($64 mil pre-tax) related to Commercial Mortgage
* LLC conversion benefit ($115 mil) relates to Commercial Finance Group
Reporting Segments
Reporting Segments
Reporting Segments
Reporting Segments
* Goodwill impairment charges of $439 million after-tax ($712 mil pre-tax); $398 million after-tax ($648 mil pre-tax) related to Commercial Finance Group and remaining $41 million after-tax ($64 mil pre-tax) related to Commercial Mortgage
* Goodwill impairment charges of $695 million after-tax ($840 mil pre-tax) and LLC conversion benefit ($115 mil) relates to Commercial Finance Group
*
*
*
*
Reconciliation of Managed to Serviced Assets
S3
2006
($ millions) 12/31/06 9/30/06 6/30/06 3/31/06
On-balance sheet assets $61,106 $65,962 $62,394 $65,732
Off-balance sheet securitized assets 6,589 4,389 5,108 5,875
Managed assets 67,695 70,351 67,502 71,607
Whole loan sales* 19,354 19,684 20,707 18,095 Serviced assets $87,049 $90,035 $88,209 $89,702
2005
($ millions) 12/31/05 9/30/05 6/30/05 3/31/05
On-balance sheet assets $71,541 $78,623 $78,261 $89,489
Off-balance sheet securitized assets 5,745 6,283 12,017 4,602
Managed assets 77,286 84,906 90,278 94,091
Whole loan sales* 17,420 11,466 12,980 7,620 Serviced assets $94,706 $96,372 $103,258 $101,711
* Retail receivables included in whole loan sales and full securitization transactions where GMAC is no longer exposed to credit and/or interest rate risk
* Retail receivables included in whole loan sales and full securitization transactions where GMAC is no longer exposed to credit and/or interest rate risk
RETAIL AUTO FINANCE
Reconciliation of Insurance Core Earnings
1. Amount within premium tax and other expense in Form 10-K2. Amount within investment income in Form 10-K
S4
($ millions) 2006 2005 2006 2005
Net Income $735 $133 $1,127 $417
Add: Pre-tax interest expense1 7 6 37 24
Less: Pre-tax capital gains2 (875) (58) (1,003) (111)
Add: Tax expense 303 18 338 31
Core Earnings $170 $99 $499 $361
Full YearFourth Quarter