SESSION: CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATIONS Toward a More Resilient Transportation System: Adapting to Climate Change in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy

Heather Holsinger, Environmental Specialist, FHWA

The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) is collaborating with partners in Connecticut, New Jersey, and New York on a project to enhance the region’s resiliency to climate change and extreme weather in the longer-term, while informing the ongoing Hurricane Sandy recovery process. Building from a FHWA-sponsored New Jersey vulnerability assessment pilot, performed in 2011, the study will survey the damage and disruption wrought by Hurricane Sandy on the region’s transportation systems, along with that of Hurricane Irene, Tropical Storm Lee, and Winter Storm Alfred (the Halloween Nor’easter of 2011). The project partnership will leverage the lessons learned from these events, as well as future climate projections, to develop feasible, cost-effective strategies to reduce and manage extreme weather vulnerabilities amid the uncertainties of a changing climate. A selection of regionally significant transportation facilities—ranging from roads, to bridges, tunnels, and ports—has been chosen by the region’s transportation agencies for a more detailed, engineering-based assessment. Results from the engineering assessments will inform a multimodal transportation vulnerability and risk assessment for the region. In addition, the project partnership will develop strategies for bolstering transportation resiliency for a selection of critical subareas. The project will provide information to agencies in the tri-state region—and nationwide—that seek to plan and invest for long-term climate resiliency while addressing today’s transportation challenges. A representative from FHWA and/or one of project partner organizations will discuss the overall project and some of the preliminary results. If requested, an overview of the FHWA’s broader climate resiliency work could also be provided.

Heather Holsinger is an Environmental Specialist with the Sustainable Transport and Climate Change Team in FHWA's Office of Natural Environment. Her work at FHWA involves policy development and analysis in the areas of climate change adaptation, sustainability, and electric vehicles. Prior to joining FHWA, Heather served as a Senior Policy Fellow and Program Manager for Adaptation at the Pew Center on Global Climate Change, a Senior Analyst with the Natural Resources and Environment team at the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO), and as an economic and environmental management consultant. She holds Masters Degrees from Duke University in resource economics and public policy and a BA from the University of Virginia with majors in Economics and Environmental Science.Brian ten Siethoff is a Principal of Cambridge Systematics, with 14 years of experience. He oversees Cambridge Systematics’ Transportation Planning and Management business line for the Northeast region.  Mr. ten Siethoff is part of the FHWA Post-Hurricane Sandy Transportation Resiliency project management team, and was part of the NJTPA Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment pilot technical team.  Mr. ten Siethoff received both a Master’s degree and a Bachelor’s degree in Civil Engineering from The University of Texas at Austin.

Brian ten Siethoff, Principal, Cambridge Systematics

Toward a More Resilient Transportation System:

Adapting to Climate Change in the Wake of Hurricane Sandy

TRB ADC-60 Summer Workshop

Heather Holsinger, FHWA

Brian ten Siethoff, Cambridge Systematics

June 18, 2014

Office of Planning, Environment and RealtySustainable Transport & Climate Change Team

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Photo: Flooding of the Hugh L. Carey Tunnel in NYC due to Hurricane Sandy. Source: MTA

US DOT Role and Mandate

• 23 USC: “protect safety, ensure mobility,”• U.S. DOT Policy statement (2011):

• Executive Order: Climate Preparedness (2013)• MAP-21:

– Planning: Includes consideration of vulnerability to climate change impacts in MPO scenario planning

– Asset Management: State DOTs required to develop asset management plans that address risks—climate change and extreme weather expected to be included in proposed rule as examples of types of risks could consider

• GROW AMERICA Act: would require states and MPOs to plan for climate resilience

“USDOT shall integrate consideration of climate change impacts and adaptation into the planning, operations, policies, and programs of DOT in order to ensure that taxpayer resources are invested wisely and that transportation infrastructure, services and operations remain effective in current and future climate conditions.”

Climate Change Adaptation at FHWA

Goal: Regular/Systematic consideration of climate change vulnerability and risk in transportation decision making, at:

• 1) Systems Level: Transportation Planning, Asset Management

• 2) Project Level: Environmental process, Preliminary Engineering, Design, Construction, Operations, Maintenance

Systems Level Goal: Consideration in Transportation Planning, Asset Management

Key Product:• Updated Climate Change & Extreme Weather

Vulnerability Assessment Framework (2015)

Activities:• Climate Resilience Pilots – round 2• Gulf Coast 2 (Mobile)• Hurricane Sandy Follow-up and Vulnerability

Assessment & Adaptation Analysis• Central NM Climate Change Scenario Planning Project

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Project Level Goal: Consideration in Environmental Process, Preliminary Engineering, Design, Construction, Operations, Maintenance

Key Products: • Updated engineering manuals, methods and processes

Activities:• Engineering Assessments

– Gulf Coast 2 (Mobile)– Hurricane Sandy Follow-up and Vulnerability Assessment &

Adaptation Analysis– Transportation Engineering Approaches to Climate Resiliency– Climate Resilience Pilots

• HEC 25 - Vol 2: Highways in the Coastal Environment: Extreme Events

• Hydrology, hydraulic engineering research efforts, etc.

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Climate Resilience Pilot & Other Project Locations

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FHWA’s Climate Change & Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Framework (2012)

Define Project Scope• Objectives• Relevant Assets• Climate Variables

Assess Vulnerability• Climate Inputs• Asset data, criticality,

sensitivity• Vulnerabilities, risk

Integrate Vulnerability Into Decision Making

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2013-2014 Climate Resilience Pilot Program

Pilots using and building on FHWA’s Climate Change & Extreme Weather Vulnerability Assessment Framework

• Vulnerability and/or adaptation• Asset management• Hydraulics, hydrology

• Broad geographic coverage and range of impacts

• Furthering the state of practice in resilience to climate change

• FHWA plans to update the framework in 2015 based on lessons from the pilots

TennesseeMaine

MichiganArizonaAlaskaOregon

ConnecticutNew YorkMaryland

Massachusetts

IowaMinnesotaCalifornia

WashingtonNCTCOG

CAMPO (Austin)Hillsboro MPOSouth Florida

MPOsMTC (San Francisco)

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Technical guidance: HEC-25 Volume 2

• Highways in the Coastal Environment: Assessing Extreme Events

• Technical guidance, methods for incorporating extreme events and climate change into coastal highway designs

• Focus on sea level rise, storm surge, wave action

• Summer 2014

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Primary Tasks1. Identify critical transportation

assets in Mobile (complete)

2. Identify climate effects, assess infrastructure sensitivity (complete)

3. Assess vulnerability of critical assets (Summer 2014)

4. Develop transferable risk management tools (Summer 2014)

Phase 1 Study Area

Phase 2 Study Area

Gulf Coast 2 Project: Mobile, Alabama

Gulf Coast 2 Project (cont.)

Vulnerability Screen• High-level analysis to find

assets most likely to be vulnerable to future changes (systems level)

Engineering Assessments• Detailed assessments of

specific assets in Mobile (project level)

• Eleven case studies

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Post-Hurricane Sandy Project

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• Builds on a FHWA 2011 NJ pilot

• Learn from experience of Sandy and identify strategies to improve resiliency

SLR 1 Meter, 2100, Coastal Study Area (Roadways). Source NJTPA

Post-Hurricane Sandy Project (cont.)

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Sandy Project Study Area• Project Partners: – FHWA – FTA– NY, NJ, and CT DOTs– Metro area MPOs: NYMTC,

NJTPA, SWRPA, and GBRC– MTA– Port Authority

• Project Consultants:– Cambridge Systematics (prime)– AECOM– Stratus Consulting– Office of Radley Horton

Post-Hurricane Sandy Project (cont.)

• Primary tasks:– Assessment of damages, lessons learned, gaps in

climate analysis – Analysis of adaptation options for 10 transportation

assets (project level)– Region-wide multimodal vulnerability assessment

(systems level)

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Extreme Weather Impacts Assessment

• Analyze historical data from recent storm-related damage and disruption

• Collect information on existing climate projections

• Conduct gap analysis to inform our assessment of future scenarios

Regional Damage Assessment: Data Sources

Summary of FHWA ER Projects (DRAFT)

FHWA Relief Projects by Asset Class (DRAFT)

FHWA Relief Projects by Climate Stressor (DRAFT)

FHWA Relief Projects by Failure Mode (DRAFT)

Review of Existing Climate Info and Gap Analysis

• Identified climate stressors of concern for region:– Storm surge – Heavy rain and inland

flooding – High temperature events – High wind events

• Reviewed existing projections

• Some supplementation likely required for the purposes of the gap analysis

Engineering-Based Adaptation Assessment

Engineering-Based Adaptation Assessment Process

Divided into 4 modules:

• Module 1: Define Climate Impacts • Module 2: Define Asset and Assess Vulnerability • Module 3: Assess Risk—Likelihood and Consequence • Module 4: Develop and Select Adaptation Strategies

Regional Vulnerability Assessment

• Identify future climate effects for analysis • Conduct vulnerability assessment of

transportation assets in the region building on previous project work

• Identify and map critically vulnerable sub-areas in the region

• Conduct a planning-level assessment of adaptive capacity

• Systems-level adaptation analysis for transportation assets in vulnerable subareas

Thank you!

Heather Holsinger (FHWA): Heather.Holsinger@dot.gov

Brian ten Siethoff (CS): btensiethoff@camsys.com

BRI

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