simulation of wintertime high ozone concentrations in southwestern wyoming
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Simulation of Wintertime High Ozone Concentrations in Southwestern Wyoming. Ralph E. Morris, Susan Kemball-Cook, Bonyoung Koo, Till Stoeckenius and Greg Yarwood ENVIRON International Corporation Novato, California 2009 CMAS Conference October 19-21, 2009 Chapel Hill, North Carolina. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Simulation of Wintertime High Ozone Concentrations in Southwestern Wyoming
Ralph E. Morris, Susan Kemball-Cook, Bonyoung Koo, Till Stoeckenius and Greg
YarwoodENVIRON International Corporation
Novato, California
2009 CMAS ConferenceOctober 19-21, 2009
Chapel Hill, North Carolina
CMAS 2009 2
Increased Demand for Domestic Energy Production
Source: Wyoming Oil and Gas Conservation Commission
Wyoming Natural Gas Production: 1978-2008
CMAS 2009 3
High Ozone in Winter in SW Wyoming
• In 2005, WDEQ began monitoring in Jonah-Pinedale Area and found high wintertime ozone concentrations
• Field studies in 2007, 2008 and 2009
8-Hour Ozone Measured at the Jonah Monitor in Southwest Wyoming: February, 2005
0
10
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90
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 28
Day
8-H
ou
r O
zon
e (
pp
b)
Jonah: Feb 3, 2005Feb 3
CMAS 2009 4
Wyoming showing Pinedale and Wind River Range Northeast of Pinedale
CMAS 2009 5
SW Wyoming Oil and Gas Development
CMAS 2009 6
Monitoring Sites and O&G Wells in SWWY
CMAS 2009 7
Southwest Wyoming
Jonah Gas Field
CMAS 2009 8
Jonah Area in 1986
CMAS 2009 9
Jonah Area in 1999
CMAS 2009 10
Jonah Area in 2007
CMAS 2009 11
Upper Green River Ozone Study Monitoring Sites during 2009 Field
Study
• Mesonet Sites
• Permanent Sites (except Jonah & Boulder2)
• HRA Sites
CMAS 2009 12
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
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105
115
125
Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08
Ozo
ne
(p
pb
)
BoulderJonahDanielYellowstonePinedale
Monitored Monthly Maximum 8-Hour Ozone
Upper Green Winter PeaksUpper Green Winter PeaksUpper Green Winter PeaksUpper Green Winter PeaksUpper Green Winter Peaks
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009March
CMAS 2009 13
Unique Features of SWWY Ozone Episodes
•Winter events– Low sun angle– Cold
temperatures
•Snow Cover•Rural location•Significant oil
& gas development
CMAS 2009 14
Role of Mixing Heights
• Elevated O3 when MH < 150 m AGL
• Note SODAR max range = 250 m agl
SODAR Mixing Height
Peak 8-Hr Avg O3 at Boulder
2008 Data
CMAS 2009 15
UV Radiation and Snow Cover
2 March: Albedo = 0.8 (snow)
23 March: Albedo = 0.06 (bare ground)
UGWOS ’07 Data
CMAS 2009 16
Effects of Albedo on Photolysis Rates using CMAQ JPROC Program (JPROC
default Albedo = 0.05)NO2 Photolysis Rates
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.8
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9UV Albedo
NO
2 P
hoto
lysi
s R
ate
July 18
January 18
Recall Tyler Cruickshank (UDEQ/DAQ) Talk at 2008 CMAS Conference
0.50 snow Albedo used in Base Case
0.75 SWWY Albedo 6 Factor analysis
CMAS 2009 17
Average TNMHC Mixing Ratio and Sample Composition
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Boulder Jonah SODAR
Location
ppbC
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perc
enta
ges
(%)
TNMHC (ppbC)
Paraffins +Isoparaffins (%)Olefins (%)
Aromatics +Napthlenes (%)Oxygenates(%)C8-C12Organics (%)Unidentified(%)
2009 Data
CMAS 2009 18
CAMx Modeling Domains: 2005 & 2006
• MM5/SMOKE• 36 km domain provided
BCs to 12 km domain• 12/4 km domains run with
two-way grid nesting
CMAS 2009 19
Wintertime Ozone Sensitivity Tests
• WDEQ field study and analysis show the following six factors are associated with high winter ozone in SWWY:
1. Shallow inversion (limited mixing)2. White snow on ground (high albedo)3. Few or no clouds4. Stagnant and/or recirculating slow surface winds– Large amount of oil & gas development activity
producing:5. High TNMHC concentrations (e.g., ~3,000 ppbC)6. High TNMHC/NOx Ratios (e.g., ~90:1 at Jonah)
• Perform initial CAMx base case simulation running the model “out of the box” for the February 2006 high ozone period
CMAS 2009 20
CAMx Base Case – Jonah, Feb 18-28, 2006
• CAMx Base Case underestimates the February 25-27 peaks by ~30-40 ppb
56_035_JONA
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120
49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60
Julian Date (local time)
O3
(pp
b)
Obs
Base
Feb 19 Feb 25Feb 26 Feb 27
CMAS 2009 21
Account for 6 Factors for Wintertime Ozone
1. Shallow Inversion– Cap MM5 PBL heights in Jonah-Pinedale
area on episode days to 100 m AGL
2. White snow on Ground– Spatially varying CAMx snow cover input
file developed based on observations– Increase snow Albedo from 0.50 to 0.75
based on field study observations
3. Few or No Clouds– Eliminate MM5 cloud cover
CMAS 2009 22
Account for 6 Factors for Wintertime Ozone
4. Stagnant and/or Recirculating Slow Surface Winds
– MM5 winds already fairly slow
5. High TNMHC Concentrations (several 1,000s ppbC)
6. High TNMHC:NOx Ratio (~90:1) – Emissions Inventory TNMHC:NOx ratio in Jonah-
Pinedale area 13:1– Field Study 6-9am measured TNMHC:NOx at Jonah
averages ~90:1 on high ozone days– Multiply TNMHC emissions in Jonah-Pinedale area
by factor of 3 (3xTNMHC)
CMAS 2009 23
Winter Ozone 6 Factor Sensitivity Test Results
• Grey Line = Observed Hourly Ozone• Red Line = CAMx Base Case• Blue Line = CAMx 6 Factor Sensitivity Test
Jonah Boulder56_035_BOUL
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40
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80
100
120
55 55.5 56 56.5 57 57.5 58 58.5 59
Julian Date (local time)
O3
(pp
b)
Obs
Base
6 Factors
56_035_JONA
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140
55 55.5 56 56.5 57 57.5 58 58.5 59
Julian Date (local time)
O3
(pp
b)
Obs
Base
6 Factors
CMAS 2009 24
Daily Maximum 8-Hour Ozone (ppb)February 27, 2005
Base Case 6 Factor Sensitivity Case
CMAS 2009 25
6-9am TNMOC Concentrations (ppbC)February 27, 2005
Field Study ~1000s @ Jonah on high ozone daysBase Case 6 Factor Sensitivity Case
JJ
CMAS 2009 26
6-9am TNMOC:NOx RatiosFebruary 27, 2005
Field Study ~90:1 @ Jonah on high ozone daysBase Case 6 Factor Sensitivity Case
JJ
CMAS 2009 27
Winter Ozone Sensitivity TestsTest Effect of Each of the 6 Factors
• 6 Factor Sensitivity Test– Cap MM5 PBL depths in Jonah/Pinedale at 100 m
AGL– Removed MM5 clouds from met inputs– Increase snow Albedo from 0.50 to 0.75– 3xTNMOC emissions in Jonah/Pinedale to better
match field study TNMOC concentrations and TNMOC:NOx Ratio
• Sens#1: Original MM5 PBL Depths
• Sens#2: Original MM5 PBL Depths and Clouds
• Sens#3: Original MM5 PBL and Clouds & 0.50 Snow Albedo
CMAS 2009 28
February 26, 2005100 m cap - MM5 PBL No Clouds - MM5 Clouds
0.75 - 0.50 snow Albedo 3xTNMOC - 1xTNMOC
CMAS 2009 29
February 27, 2005100 m cap - MM5 PBL No Clouds - MM5 Clouds
0.75 - 0.50 snow Albedo 3xTNMOC - 1xTNMOC
CMAS 2009 30
Conclusions
•Using MM5/CAMx “out-of-the-box” fails to produce high wintertime ozone in SWWY
•With addition of the “6 Factors” CAMx able to produce high winter ozone events in SWWY
• Increasing snow Albedo from 0.50 to 0.75 and increases TNMHC emissions 3x most important– 0.75 Albedo fully justified from field study– More refined wind modeling and better emissions
representation may be able to produce high morning TNMHC concentrations and TNMHC:NOx ratios
CMAS 2009 31
Acknowledgements
• The analysis of the photochemical modeling results would not have been possible without the results of the Wyoming Department of Environmental Quality (WDEQ) Air Quality Division (AQD) field study data and analysis that was conducted by the AQD and their contractors:– ENVIRON– T&B Systems– Meteorological Solutions, Inc.– Argonne National Laboratory
• SWWY O&G emissions were developed by BP America and Sage Consulting, which has also been integral to this analysis