Structural changes of global poultry production and the impact on the environment, including on poultry

genetic resources

Irene Hoffmann and Pierre Gerber, Animal Production and Health Division, FAO

Guidance for the poultry sector – issues and options Joint FAO-WPSA Symposium at EPC, Tours, France, 24 August 2010

Contents

• Poultry production and consumption

• Structural change• Environmental impact• Poultry genetic diversity • Conclusions

Poultry production and consumption

100

200

300

400

500

Index

num

ber:

1961=

100

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Roots and tubers CerealsMeat MilkEggs

Per caput consumption of major food items in developing countries – kg per caput per year (index numbers 1961=100)

Consumption of livestock products is growing rapidly

Calorie and protein consumption from poultry

• 90 mill t meat, 63 mill t eggs (2007)• 28% of world meat production• 2.5% consumption increase globally, 3.4% in

LDC to 2030• low consumer price

Growth in production: animal numbers and yields

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Numbers Yield Numbers Yield Numbers Yield Numbers Yield Numbers Yield

Pig Poultry Cattle Milk Eggs

Ave

rag

e an

nu

al g

row

th (

%)

East and Southeast Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Near East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa

(1980-2007)

Structural change

Contribution of livestock production systems to food production

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

beef mutton pork poultrymeat

milk eggs

industrial

mixed irrigated

mixed rainfed

grazing

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

beef mutton pork poultrymeat

milk eggs

industrial

mixed irrigated

mixed rainfed

grazing

Global Developing countries

68% of eggs and 74% of poultry meat globally from industrial systems

data: 2001-2003, Steinfeld et al 2006

Estimated global distribution of poultry

Estimated distribution of industrially produced poultry populations

Geographical concentration of poultry production

Three types of clusters

• Close to markets (poor transport infrastructure)• Close to feed resources (well developed transport

infrastructure)• In areas characterized by low human population density

(environmental regulations)

Changes in geographic concentration of hens in Brazil from 1992 - 2001

Spatial distribution around Bangkok

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

Distance to Bangkok (km)

Hum

an /

anim

al d

ensi

ty

0

10

20

30

40

Mea

n n

orm

alis

ed

cro

p p

rod

uctio

n

human pop (p/km2/10)

pigs (nb/km2)

chicken (nb/km2/10)

maize (tons/km2)

soybean (10*tons/km2)

cassava (tons/km2/2)

Humans, livestock and feed-crops, 2001

Feed

Growing intensities: based on expanding concentrate use

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

developing developed

fish meal

roots/tubers

oilcakes

oilseeds

brans

grains

feed concentrate use in 2002, million tons

Increasing trade of feedstuff

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

1973 1983 1993 2003

China

Asia

World

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

1973 1983 1993 2003

China

Asia

World

Maize imports (tons)Soybean imports (tons)

developing countries: trade deficit in coarse grain

Livestock production and ecosystems

Livestock production and ecosystems • Land

– 26% of emerged land used as pasture/rangeland– 33% of crop land dedicated to feed production

• Water– 8% of water use mostly for feed– alters the status of the resource (quality and quantity)

• Biodiversity– wildlife: follow on effects of habitat degradation and destruction– narrowing agricultural biodiversity

• Climate– 18% of anthropogenic emissions when taking a food chain approach– main causes: deforestation, manure management and enteric fermentation

Projected poultry manure production in Vietnam

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Total Backyard andsmall scale

Medium scale Large scaleindustrial

Ducks

Manure production 2003in tonsManure production 2015in tons

Nutrient overload

Estimated contribution of livestock to total P2O5 supply on agricultural land, in areas presenting a P2O5 mass balance of more than 10 kg per hectare (1998 to 2000).

http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/docs/hypoxia/satimgMorePic.asp?pic=HypoWebTrueColor.jpg

Trouble at the mouth of the Mississippi

GHG emissions from livestock: a food chain approach

STEP IN FOOD CHAIN ESTIMATED EMISSIONS

ESTIMATED CONTRIBUTION BY SPECIES

(giga-tonnes)

(percent of sector)

Cattle Pigs Poultry Small rum’ts

LULUC 2.50 36 *** * * ns

Feed production 0.40 7 * ** ** ns

Animal production 1.90 25 **** * * **

Manure mgmt 2.20 31 ** *** ns ns

Processing and transport

0.03 1 * * *** ns

LCA for 1 MT of broiler

Pelletier, 2008

Livestock related LUC: Deforestation in the Neotropics

http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/GraphicResources.aspx

Main direct drivers of change of

biodiversity in ecosystems

Poultry genetic diversity

4%

7% 7%

66%

10%9%

8%

89%Local1 946

International 160

Regional 80

Local and transboundary avian breeds

Origin of chicken breeds, by subregion

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Centra

l Asia

East A

sia

S-E A

sia

South

Asia

N & W

Afri

ca

East A

frica

South

ern

Africa

Europ

e

E-Eur

ope &

Cauc

asus

Near &

Midd

le E

ast

Caribbe

an

Centra

l Am

erica

South

Am

erica

North A

mer

ica

SW P

acific

international regional local

Trends within breeding industry

• higher capital investment - vulnerability– high cost for Genomic selection– regulation/standards: biosecurity, welfare etc

• merger and concentration – economies of scale– implications for genetic diversity?

• vertical integration, spread risk downstream• strategic research partnerships with (public)

universities, access to public R&D funds

Productivity differential (production/head)

1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006

Eggs, primary 117 95 63 47 45 53

Poultry meat 24 19 20 27 29 31

Partial factor productivity differential between selected developed countries with commercial breeding programmes in all species, and the rest of the world (Production/head) selected developed countries: European Union, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. data: FAO STAT, 2009

Implications for developing countries

• < 3 % of total global livestock R&D investment to poultry

• increasing divide between scientific haves and non-haves – high market access barriers

• import of GP/PS stock or day-old chickens– low incentives to build own breeding programmes;

• little characterization, conservation

Countries reporting breeding programmes

Structured breeding programmes

Chicken 20

Turkey 5

Ducks 8

Geese 4

FAO, 2007

Status of poultry GR conservation

• 26 countries with in situ / ex situ poultry conservation programmes– 24 chicken– 7 duck– 2 geese– 2 turkey

• 11 cryo-conservation programmes for semen, tissue or DNA

• 50% run by government

FAO, 2007

Proportion of the world’s breeds by risk status

Mammalian

5% 1%

8%

2%

11%

38%

35%

All species

7%1%

10%

3%

9%

34%

36%

Avian

12%

1%

16%

4%

2%

25%

40%

critical

critical-maintained

endangered

endangered-maintained

extinct

not at risk

unknown

9 % extinct20 % at risk36 % unknown

FAO, 2009

2% extinct31% at risk40% unknown

Risk status of chicken breeds, by subregion

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Centra

l Asia

East A

sia

S-E A

sia

South

Asia

N & W

Afri

ca

East A

frica

South

ern

Africa

Europ

e

E-Eur

ope &

Cauc

asus

Near &

Midd

le E

ast

Caribbe

an

Centra

l Am

erica

South

Am

erica

North A

mer

ica

SW P

acific

unknown extinct at risk not at risk

Threats to poultry genetic resources

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Developed Developing

Status of animal health

Poor conservation strategies

Lack of functional institutionalframeworks

Weak livestock sector policiesand strategies

Socio-political changes andinstabilities

Loss of human resources

Replacement of breed functions

Economic and market drivers

310 responses, first threat for breeds being at-risk

Conclusions

Environment• Protein-energy return on investment 18% for broiler, 7% for

eggs (Pelletier, 2008)• In most cases, farm level environmental issues are limited• FCR reduction = reduced land used to grow feed + GHG

emission/output • Most of the poultry sector’s environmental impacts are

associated with the feed base : deforestation, intensive agriculture, nutrient and water cycles, esp. in regions characterised by high animal concentration

Genetic diversity• High share of transboundary breeds • Intensification and commercialization lead to loss of diversity • Conservation supported by hobby breeders and socio-

cultural functions

http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/A5.html