Recommendation BUY

CMP 422.45

Target Price 470.00

ISIN: INE155A01022 JUNE 4th

, 2014

TATA MOTORS LIMITED Result Update (CONSOLIDATED BASIS): Q4 FY14

STOCK DETAILS

Sector Automobile

BSE Code 500570

Face Value 2.00

52wk. High / Low (Rs.) 464.20/263.10

Volume (2wk. Avg ) 455000

Market Cap ( Rs in mn ) 1359824.31

Annual Estimated Results (A*: Actual / E*: Estimated)

Years FY14A FY15E FY16E

Net Sales 2328336.60 2631020.36 2920432.60

EBITDA 356662.90 412893.26 462150.27

Net Profit 139910.20 163138.91 182896.07

EPS 43.47 50.68 56.82

P/E 9.72 8.34 7.43

Shareholding Pattern (%)

1 Year Comparative Graph

TATA MOTORS LTD BSE SENSEX

SYNOPSIS

Tata Motors is India's largest automobile company, with consolidated revenues of INR 2328336.6 million (USD 38.9 billion) in 2013-14.

During the quarter, consolidated revenues stood at Rs. 653171.4 mn, a growth of 16.6% over Rs. 560018.4 mn in Q4 FY13.

Consolidated PBT for the quarter was Rs. 50530.3 mn, as compared to Rs. 46943.4 mn in Q4 FY13.

Consolidated Profit (after tax and post minority interest and profit in respect of associate companies) for the quarter was Rs. 39182.9 mn.

During the quarter, JLR has reported revenues of GBP 5,349 mn represented a growth of 5.9% over GBP 5,053 mn in the corresponding quarter last year.

JLR Operating profit (EBITDA) stood at GBP 920 mn, up 12.2% as compared to GBP 820 mn during the Q4 FY13. Operating margin stood at 17.2%, up 100 bps as compared to corresponding quarter last year.

JLR wholesale and retail volumes for the year ended March 31, 2014 grew by 15.5% and 15.9%, over the corresponding period last year and stood at 429,861 units and 434,311 units, respectively.

Standalone sales (including exports) of commercial and passenger vehicles for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, stood at 1,32,308 units, a decline of 33.0% as compared to the corresponding period last year.

Standalone revenues (net of excise) for the quarter stood at Rs. 85454.9 mn, as compared to Rs.110677.9 mn in Q4 FY13.

Tata Motors has recommended retaining the dividend at Rs. 2 per Ordinary share and Rs. 2.10 per ‘A’ Ordinary share, both of face value of Rs. 2 each for FY14.

Tata Motors has entered into the Philippines market at the Manila International Auto Show (MIAS), 2014, held at the World trade Centre.

Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% and 23% over 2013 to 2016E respectively.

PEER GROUPS CMP MARKET CAP EPS P/E (X) P/BV(X) DIVIDEND

COMPANY NAME (Rs.) Rs. in Mn. (Rs.) Ratio Ratio (%)

Tata Motors Ltd 422.45 1359824.31 43.47 9.72 2.07 100.00

Eicher Motors Ltd 7234.00 195379.20 128.98 55.91 23.79 300.00

Maruti Suzuki India Ltd 2383.35 721412.50 92.13 25.92 3.38 240.00

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 1228.00 753421.20 61.02 20.05 4.09 280.00

Analysis & Recommendation - ‘BUY’

India's largest automobile company, Tata Motors reported consolidated revenues (net of excise) of Rs. 653171.4

mn for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, a growth of 16.6% over Rs. 560018.4 mn for the corresponding

quarter of the previous year, despite a weak operating and economic environment in the standalone business

which was more than offset by strong demand for new products, growth in volumes, richer product mix and

richer geographic mix at Jaguar Land Rover (JLR). The Consolidated Profit before Tax for the quarter was Rs.

50530.3 mn, as compared to Rs. 46943.4 mn in Q4 FY13 and the consolidated Profit (after tax and post minority

interest and profit in respect of associate companies) for the quarter was Rs. 39182.9 mn as compared to Rs.

39454.7 mn for the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

During the quarter, Jaguar Land Rover reported revenues of GBP 5,349 mn represented a growth of 5.9% over

GBP 5,053 mn in the corresponding quarter last year. Operating profit (EBITDA) stood at GBP 920 mn, up 12.2%

as compared to GBP 820 mn during the corresponding quarter last year. Operating margin stood at 17.2%, up

100 bps as compared to corresponding quarter last year reflecting richer product and geographic mix, with

increased volumes in emerging markets. The Profit before tax grew to GBP 576 mn (GBP 507 mn in the

corresponding quarter last year) reflecting higher operating profit (EBITDA), favourable exchange revaluation

on loans and unrealized hedges, partially offset by higher depreciation and amortization as well as higher finance

expense. Profit after tax grew to GBP 449 mn (GBP 377 mn in the corresponding quarter last year). Tata Daewoo

Commercial Vehicles Co. Ltd. registered net revenues of KRW 884 billion and recorded a Net profit/(Loss) of

KRW 24 billion for the year ended March 31, 2014, as compared to KRW 824 billion and KRW (9) billion,

respectively, in the corresponding period last year.

Standalone sales (including exports) of commercial and passenger vehicles for the quarter ended March 31,

2014, stood at 1,32,308 units, a decline of 33.0% as compared to the corresponding period last year. During the

quarter, standalone revenues (net of excise) stood at Rs. 85454.9 mn, as compared to Rs.110677.9 mn in Q4

FY13. Sustained deceleration in the economic growth, high inflation, higher fuel prices, reduced availability of

finance, elevated interest rate regime, continued to impact the demand for the entire auto industry in general and

commercial vehicle industry in specific. However, during the year the Company has launched a number of value

added products under the Tata Prima and the Tata Ultra brand, as well as value added services such as Tata

Alert, a 24 hour call service for highway trucks, and these have helped the Company to keep strong market

position. Over FY2013-16E, we expect the company to post a CAGR of 16% and 23% in its revenue and PAT

respectively. Hence, we recommend ‘BUY’ for ‘TATA MOTORS LTD’ with a target price of Rs. 470.00 for medium

to long term investment.

FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS (CONSOLIDATED)

Results updates- Q4 FY14,

Tata Motors Limited is India's largest automobile

company; it is the leader in commercial vehicles in

each segment, and among the top three in passenger

vehicles with winning products in the compact,

midsize car and utility vehicle segments world and

the largest in India, reported its financial results for

the quarter ended 31st March, 2014.

Months Mar-14 Mar-13 % Change

Net Sales 653171.40 560016.40 16.63

PAT 39182.90 39454.70 (0.69)

EPS 12.17 12.37 (1.57)

EBITDA 102546.20 79789.80 28.52

Consolidated revenues of Rs. 653171.40 million for the quarter ended March 31, 2014, a growth of 16.63% over

Rs. 560016.40 million for the corresponding quarter of the previous year. The company’s net profit fell to Rs.

39182.90 million against Rs. 39454.70 million in the corresponding quarter ending of previous year, a decrease

of 0.69%. Reported earnings per share of the company stood at Rs.12.17 a share during the quarter, registering

1.57% decrease over previous year period. Profit before interest, depreciation and tax stood at Rs. 102546.20

millions as against Rs. 79789.80 million in the corresponding period of the previous year.

Expenditure :

Break up of

Expenditure

Rs in Millions

Q4 FY14 Q4 FY13 %

Change

Cost of Material

Consumed 378959.60 312741.30 21%

Depreciation &

Amortization

Expense

31254.80 23463.20 33%

Product

development /

Engineering

expenses

7765.80 5279.30 47%

Purchase of

Products For Sale 31280.90 24826.10 26%

Employee Benefit

Expenses 60273.10 44345.70 36%

Other Expenditure 118915.80 103864.70 14%

Latest Updates

• Tata Motors Ltd has recommended retaining the dividend at Rs. 2/- per Ordinary share (100%) and Rs. 2.10

per ‘A’ Ordinary share (105%), both of face value of Rs. 2/- each for FY2013-14.

• The Standalone sales (including exports) of commercial and passenger vehicles for the quarter ended March

31, 2014, stood at 1,32,308 units, a decline of 33.0% as compared to the corresponding period last year

• Standalone revenues (net of excise) for the quarter ended March 31, 2014 stood at Rs. 85454.9 mn, as

compared to Rs.110677.9 mn for the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

• Jaguar Land Rover wholesale and retail volumes for the year ended March 31, 2014 grew by 15.5% and

15.9%, over the corresponding period last year and stood at 429,861 units and 434,311 units, respectively

(120,953 units and 124,776 units for the quarter ended Mar 2014).

• The Company is in the process of divesting its investments in certain foreign subsidiary companies to TML

Holdings Pte Ltd, Singapore, a wholly owned subsidiary.

• During the year the Company has launched a number of value added products under the Tata Prima and the

Tata Ultra brand, as well as value added services such as Tata Alert, a 24 hour call service for highway trucks.

• In the Passenger Vehicle Business, the Company under the umbrella of HorizoNext launched 5 models and 8

variants in Q2 FY 2013-14 and has followed in Q4 FY 2013-14 with launch of Nano Twist, Vista Tech and Aria

Model Year 2014.

• Tata Motors Limited announced that TML Holdings Pte. Ltd. a wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Motors Ltd

has issued and allotted US$300,000,000 in principal amount of 5.75% senior fixed rate notes due 2021.

• Tata Motors has launched three new next-generation heavy trucks from its PRIMA range of commercial

vehicles in Qatar.

• Tata Motors has entered into the Philippines market at the Manila International Auto Show (MIAS), 2014,

held at the World trade Centre. The company will commence its business in Philippines with exports of the

Manza, the Vista, the Indigo and the Indica from its passenger vehicles portfolio and the Xenon, the Ace and

the Super Ace from its commercial vehicles range. Tata Motors has appointed PilipinasTajAutogroup Inc., as

its distributor in Philippines.

Company Profile

Tata Motors is India's largest automobile company, with consolidated revenues of INR 2328336.6 million (USD

38.9 billion) in 2013-14. Through subsidiaries and associate companies, Tata Motors has operations in the UK,

South Korea, Thailand, South Africa and Indonesia. Among them is Jaguar Land Rover, the business comprising

the two iconic British brands. It also has an industrial joint venture with Fiat in India. With over 8 million Tata

vehicles plying in India, Tata Motors is the country's market leader in commercial vehicles and among the top in

passenger vehicles. It is also the world's fifth largest truck manufacturer and fourth largest bus manufacturer.

Tata cars, buses and trucks are being marketed in several countries in Europe, Africa, the Middle East, South

Asia, South East Asia, Sou merica, CIS and Russia.

Established in 1945, Tata Motors' presence indeed cuts across the length and breadth of India. The company's

manufacturing base in India is spread across Jamshedpur (Jharkhand), Pune (Maharashtra), Lucknow (Uttar

Pradesh), Pantnagar (Uttarakhand), Sanand (Gujarat) and Dharwad (Karnataka). Following a strategic alliance

with Fiat in 2005, it has set up an industrial joint venture with Fiat Group Automobiles at Ranjangaon

(Maharashtra) to produce both Fiat and Tata cars and Fiat power trains.

Product range of the company includes:

• Passenger Cars:

� Indica Vista, Indica V2, indica V2 Turbo, Indica V2 Xeta, Indica V2 Dicor.

� Indigo XL, Indigo, Indigo Marina Indigo CS.

� Nano.

� Fiat Cars

� Tata Cars

� Jaguar

� Land Rover

• Utility Vehicles:

� Safari Dicor.

� Sumo Grande.

� Sumo.

� Xenon XT.

• Commercial Vehicles:

� Medium & Heavy Comm. Vehicles, Tata Novus.

� Intermediate Comm. Vehicles.

� Light Commercial Vehicles, TL 4×4,

� Small Commercial Vehicles.

• Commercial Passenger Carriers:

� Buses.

� Winger.

� Magic

• Defence Vehicles

� Logistics

� Tactical

� Armored

� Buses

Financial Highlight (CONSOLIDATED) (A*- Actual, E* -Estimations & Rs. In Millions)

Balance sheet as at March 31st, 2013-2016E

TATA MOTORS LTD. FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Shareholder's Funds

Share Capital 6380.70 6437.80 6437.80 6437.80

Reserves and Surplus 369992.30 649596.70 812506.91 995402.97

1. Sub Total - Net worth 376373.00 656034.50 818944.71 1001840.77

2. Minority interest 3704.80 4206.50 4627.15 4997.32

Non Current Liabilities

Long term borrowings 321100.70 452586.10 543103.32 608275.72

Deferred Tax Liabilities 20194.90 15723.30 13522.04 12305.05

Other Long term Liabilities 32840.60 25968.60 21813.62 20068.53

Long Term Provisions 83191.50 121902.90 151159.60 173833.54

3. Sub Total - Non Current Liabilities 457327.70 616180.90 729598.58 814482.84

Current Liabilities

Short term borrowings 116122.10 96958.60 85323.57 76791.21

Trade Payables 447801.40 573157.30 664862.47 744645.96

Other Current Liabilities 221409.60 173738.60 152889.97 140658.77

Short Term Provisions 77525.90 79706.80 82895.07 86210.87

4. Sub Total - Current Liabilities 862859.00 923561.30 985971.08 1048306.82

Total Liabilities (1+2+3+4) 1700264.50 2199983.20 2539141.51 2869627.76

APPLICATION OF FUNDS

Non-Current Assets

a) Fixed Assets 694836.10 973754.00 1166645.83 1369642.25

b) Non-current investments 15154.00 11143.90 9472.32 10230.10

c) Goodwill on consolidation 41023.70 49788.30 57256.55 63554.76

d) Long Term loans and advances 154654.60 132688.40 119419.56 113448.58

e) Deferred Tax Asset 44289.30 23470.80 17837.81 14627.00

f) Other non-current assets 10239.50 50684.50 60821.40 68119.97

1. Sub Total - Non Current Assets 960197.20 1241529.90 1431453.46 1639622.67

Current Assets

Current Investment 75423.20 95722.80 111038.45 124363.06

Inventories 209690.10 272708.90 324523.59 363466.42

Trade receivables 109426.60 105742.30 107857.15 112171.43

Cash and Bank Balances 211126.70 297117.90 356541.48 406457.29

Short-terms loans & advances 126084.60 140552.40 151796.59 160904.39

Other current assets 8316.10 46609.00 55930.80 62642.50

2. Sub Total - Current Assets 740067.30 958453.30 1107688.06 1230005.09

Total Assets (1+2) 1700264.50 2199983.20 2539141.51 2869627.76

Annual Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 2013 to 2016E

Value(Rs.in.mn) FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E

Description 12m 12m 12m 12m

Net Sales 1887926.90 2328336.60 2631020.36 2920432.60

Other Income 8155.90 8285.90 9031.63 9483.21

Total Income 1896082.80 2336622.50 2640051.99 2929915.81

Expenditure -1641967.10 -1979959.60 -2227158.73 -2467765.54

Operating Profit 254115.70 356662.90 412893.26 462150.27

Interest -35602.50 -47337.80 -55858.60 -63120.22

Gross profit 218513.20 309325.10 357034.65 399030.04

Depreciation -76012.80 -110781.60 -135153.55 -155426.58

Exceptional Items -6027.10 -9853.80 -6404.97 -4803.73

Profit Before Tax 136473.30 188689.70 215476.13 238799.73

Tax -37766.60 -47647.90 -51283.32 -54923.94

Profit After Tax 98706.70 141041.80 164192.81 183875.79

Minority Interest -836.70 -594.50 -624.23 -593.01

Share of Profit & Loss of Asso. 1056.10 -537.10 -429.68 -386.71

Net Profit 98926.10 139910.20 163138.91 182896.07

Equity capital 6380.70 6437.80 6437.80 6437.80

Reserves 369596.30 649368.00 812506.91 995402.97

Face value 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

EPS 31.01 43.47 50.68 56.82

Quarterly Profit & Loss Statement for the period of 30th Sep, 2013 to 30th June, 2014E

Value(Rs.in.mn) 30-Sep-13 31-Dec-13 31-Mar-14 30-Jun-14E

Description 3m 3m 3m 3m

Net sales 568822.80 638768.30 653171.40 574790.83

Other income 2320.90 1574.70 2548.40 2420.98

Total Income 571143.70 640343.00 655719.80 577211.81

Expenditure -482471.50 -539283.40 -553173.60 -486560.44

Operating profit 88672.20 101059.60 102546.20 90651.37

Interest -11117.40 -10012.10 -16675.50 -15841.73

Gross profit 77554.80 91047.50 85870.70 74809.65

Depreciation -27292.50 -28526.90 -31254.80 -32192.44

Exceptional Items -2738.40 -1243.40 -4085.60 -1929.31

Profit Before Tax 47523.90 61277.20 50530.30 40687.89

Tax -11934.30 -13085.80 -10969.30 -10985.73

Profit After Tax 35589.60 48191.40 39561.00 29702.16

Minority Interest -106.30 -85.00 -205.10 -194.85

Share of Profit & Loss of Asso. -64.70 -58.40 -173.00 -155.70

Net Profit 35418.60 48048.00 39182.90 29351.62

Equity capital 6437.80 6437.80 6437.80 6437.80

Face value 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00

EPS 11.00 14.93 12.17 9.12

Ratio Analysis

Particulars FY13A FY14A FY15E FY16E

EPS (Rs.) 31.01 43.47 50.68 56.82

EBITDA Margin (%) 13.46% 15.32% 15.69% 15.82%

PBT Margin (%) 7.23% 8.10% 8.19% 8.18%

PAT Margin (%) 5.23% 6.06% 6.24% 6.30%

P/E Ratio (x) 13.62 9.72 8.34 7.43

ROE (%) 26.25% 21.51% 20.05% 18.35%

ROCE (%) 40.60% 38.78% 37.86% 36.61%

Debt Equity Ratio 1.16 0.84 0.77 0.68

EV/EBITDA (x) 5.90 4.25 3.68 3.28

Book Value (Rs.) 117.85 203.74 254.42 311.24

P/BV 3.58 2.07 1.66 1.36

Charts

Outlook and Conclusion

� At the current market price of Rs.422.45, the stock P/E ratio is at 8.34 x FY15E and 7.43 x FY16E

respectively.

� Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY15E and FY16E is seen at Rs.50.68 and

Rs.56.82 respectively.

� Net Sales and PAT of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 16% and 23% over 2013 to 2016E

respectively.

� On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 3.68 x for FY15E and 3.28 x for FY16E.

� Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 1.66 x and 1.36 x respectively for FY15E and FY16E.

� We recommend ‘BUY’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.470.00 for Medium to Long term

investment.

Industry Overview

India represents one of the world’s largest car markets. Easy availability of finance and rising income levels are

encouraging the middle class population to choose from the vast range of passenger vehicles.

The Indian auto industry has been recording tremendous growth over the years and has emerged as a major

contributor to India’s gross domestic product (GDP). The industry currently accounts for almost 7 per cent of the

country’s GDP and employs about 19 million people both directly and indirectly.

In addition, with Government’s backing and a special focus on exports of small cars, multi-utility vehicles (MUVs),

two and three wheelers and auto components, the automotive sector’s contribution to the GDP is expected to

double reaching a turnover worth US$ 145 billion in 2016, according to the Automotive Mission Plan (AMP)

2006–2016.

Key Statistics

The auto industry produced a total 1.81 million vehicles, including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles,

three wheelers and two wheelers in February 2014 as against 1.73 million in February 2013, registering a

growth of 4.41 per cent over the same month last year. The increase continues to be on account of growth in two

wheelers production. Moreover, the overall domestic sales during April–February 2014 grew marginally by 2.68

per cent over the same period last year.

The passenger vehicles production in India is expected to reach 10 million units by 2020–21. The industry is

estimated to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13 per cent during 2012–2021. In addition, the

industry is projected to touch US$ 30 billion by 2020–21, according to data from Automotive Component

Manufacturers’ Association (ACMA).

The cumulative foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the Indian automobile industry during the period

April 2000 to January 2014 was recorded at US$ 9,344 million, an increase of 4 per cent to the total FDI inflows

in terms of US$, according to data published by Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP),

Government of India.

The overall automobile exports grew by 6.39 per cent during April–February 2014. Passenger vehicles, three

wheelers and two wheelers registered growth at 6.44 per cent, 16.40 per cent and 5.41 per cent respectively,

compared to the same period last year.

Major Developments & Investments

• German auto maker Volkswagen is planning to expand production capacity and introduce a slew of new

models. The group is looking at investing Rs 1,500 crore (US$ 248.55 million) over the next five years to

set up a diesel engine manufacturing facility.

• Amtek Auto signed an agreement to buy Germany's Kuepper Group of companies for about Rs 16.78

billion (US$ 277.97 million) in December 2013, which was its second big European acquisition in 2013.

• Jaguar Land Rover (JLR) will scale up its production capacity to hit 700,000 units by FY 2017 riding on its

joint ventures (JV) in China and Brazil, as per analysts. JLR's capacity for 2014 is pegged at 450,000 units.

• Infosys has signed a multi-year contract with Volvo Cars to provide application development services to

the latter's global operations.

• JCB announced plans to relocate production of compaction equipment to factories in the UK and to Pune,

India, and close the Gatersleben site in Germany.

• Piaggio Vehicles Pvt Ltd, scooter and light commercial vehicle manufacturer, is planning to assemble its

super bikes locally, which it sells under the brand Aprilia.

Furthermore, India is expected to emerge as a centre for producing compact superbikes. Several global and

Indian bike makers plan to utilise India's mass production base of 16 million two wheelers to roll out sports

bikes in the 250cc capacity.

Government Initiatives

The Interim Budget 2014-15 added some incentives to the auto industry. To give relief to the automobile

industry, the excise duty has been reduced till June 30, 2014 as follows:

• For small cars, motorcycle, scooters – the duty has been reduced from 12 per cent to 8 per cent.

• For commercial vehicles and SUVs – the duty has been reduced from 30 per cent to 24 per cent.

• For large and mid-segment cars – the duty has been reduced from 27/24 per cent to 24/20 per cent.

The other incentives from Union Budget 2013–14 are as follows:

• The period of concession available for specified part of electric and hybrid vehicles till April 2013 has

been extended up to March 31, 2015.

• An exemption from BCD will be provided to lithium ion automotive battery for manufacture of lithium

ion battery packs for supply to manufacturers of hybrid and electric vehicles.

The Government of India allows 100 per cent FDI in the automotive industry through automatic route.

Road Ahead

The vision of AMP 2006–2016 expects India, “to emerge as the destination of choice in the world for design and

manufacture of automobiles and auto components with output reaching a level of US$ 145 billion; accounting for

more than 10 per cent of the GDP and providing additional employment to 25 million people by 2016.”

Disclaimer:

This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale

of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. The information contained herein is

from publicly available data or other sources believed to be reliable but do not represent that it is accurate or

complete and it should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it’s affiliates shall

not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the

information contained in this report. This document is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must

not alone be taken as the basis for an investment decision.

Firstcall India Equity Research: Email – info@firstcallindia.com

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