Technical Cooperation in Development of the South Asian Regional Reanalysis (SARR) to advance Understanding, Modeling, and Prediction of Monsoon Hydroclimate Variability and

Change between the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Department of Commerce of the United States of America and

the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) of the Government of India

This text constitutes an Implementing Arrangement under Article IV of the Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of India's Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) and the Government of the United States of America's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on Technical Cooperation in Earth Observations and Earth Sciences.

I. Purpose

This Implementing Arrangement provides a framework for collaboration between the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) of India and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Department of Commerce of the United States of America (hereinafter, "the Parties") concerning the Development of the South Asian Regional Reanalysis (SARR) to advance Understanding, Modeling, and Prediction of Monsoon Hydroclimate Variability and Change. While intended to serve as a vehicle for continuing collaboration, it is being implemented for an initial five-year period.

11. Objectives

A retrospective analysis (reanalysis) of circulation and thermodynamic fields over South Asia will be developed to advance characterization, understanding, modeling, and prediction of monsoon climate variability and change over this vastly populated subcontinent of complex orography, land-surface types, and land-ocean boundaries. Interest in regional hydroclimate (precipitation, surface temperature, soil moisture, stream flow, drought indices, etc.) is intense and growing, given the direct societal impacts.

Through additional assimilation of precipitation, radiance, and aerosol observations in numerical weather prediction models, the South Asian Regional Reanalysis project will generate refined description of the regional hydroclimate state; a description unattainable from canonical assimilation of circulation and temperature data as model forecasts of precipitation

remain inaccurite. The SARR project will thus provide an atmosphere-land-surface state description where consistency between circulation and hydroclimate components is assured.

The South Asian Regional Reanalysis project will exploit the high spatio-temporal resolution of satellite observations; generate unique synthesis of conventional and remotely sensed data using state-of-the-art atmosphere/land-surface models while being mindful of regional water and energy budgets; develop comprehensive summer and winter monsoon phenomenologies from closer interaction of the modeling and observational communities; provide a framework for diagnosing the influence of regional anthropogenic aerosols/pollutants on circulation and hydroclimate; permit a more rigorous analysis of water resource management and agricultural practices; and above all, forge stronger links between climate programs of South Asian countries. 1 111. Areas of k ooperative Activity

The project is motivated by intersections of US-NOAA and India-MoES interests in weather and climate prediction over the South Asian subcontinent and the Indian Ocean basin. In the following, 'US' and 'IND' mark key interests of the two countries.

Societal Impact: Provide consistent description of hydroclimate (precipitation, soil moisture, stream flow, drought indices, surface temperature) to the agricultural economies of the region. (IND) IPCC Relevance: Facilitate climate-change detection and attribution over Asia - home of two large energy-hungry economies. Circulation-hydroclimate consistent records are presently unavailable for a discriminating analysis of regional climate change.

(IND, US) Regional Science: Advance understanding of the dynamic and thermodynamic mechanisms that mediate localhemote forcing (aerosols, El Nino Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, etc.) and the monsoon response. (IND, US) Global Teleconnections: Develop refined description of the influence of the South Asian monsoon and Indian Ocean on evolution of the El Nino Southern Oscillation and the PacificINorth American climate. (US) Observation-Model Bridge: Forge strong connections between India's observational and modeling scientists, leading to improved nowcasting and forecasting of regional weather and climate. (IND)

I I I Specific SARR Goals

The goals of the collaborative project are:

Refine methods for assimilation of precipitation and radiances with the goal of reducing the water and energy budget imbalances during the assimilation procedure

Conduct a kyear pilot-phase reanalysis for the period 1998-2002, to test and optimize data stream organization and the geographic domain and assimilating model choices. The short, modem period reanalysis will be evaluated fiom intercomparisons with satellite observations (e.g., TRMM) and state-of-the-art global analysis (e.g., ERA40); and the assimilating technique refined as necessary.

Develop high-resolution SST analysis for the Indian ocean from satellite and in-situ observations, including moorings, drifters and Argo floats

Design techniques for assimilation of aerosols

Improve state estimation of the Northem Indian Ocean from refined surface circulation and heat-flux estimates produced by the regional atmospheric reanalysis

Generate a dynamics-thermodynamics consistent, high spatio-temporal resolution (S30 Km, 53 hours) climate data set from retrospective analysis of in-situ and remotely sensed ocean-atmosphere observations for the 1979-2006 period over the South Asian Monsoon land-ocean region.

IV. Coordination of Joint Activities

Overall coordination (of the joint activities is the responsibility of the Director of NOAA1s Climate Program Office and Program Office of the Ministry of Earth Sciences.

V. Responsibilities of the Parties

A. NOAA agrees to:

o Provide MoES full access to the archived observations used in the global reanalysis projects.

o Provide technical help, training, and guidance in organization of data streams and in the implementation of the regional reanalysis model

o Provide training to MoES scientists in regional reanalysis techniques and procedures during 6-8 week annual visits to US institutions and NOAA laboratories.

o Share the NCEP-North American Regional Reanalysis data processing and quality control procedures with MoES scientists

US University scientists to Iidia in connection with SARR project activities. 1

B. MoES agrees to:

o Provide NOAA full access to all historical and current meteorological observations as per requirement of the project over the Indian subcontinent and Indian Ocean, including those from Indian satellites.

o Execute the South Asian Regional Reanalysis project through the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF).

o Provide full-time modeling scientists to develop, implement, and test numerical codes.

o Provide 4-6 full time Ph.D. scientists to design, test, and implement various assimilation schemes in the numerical model.

o Provide high-speed mainframe computer resources for execution of this computationally intensive project.

o Provide storage devices and skilled manpower (data management specialists) to organize data streams, data archival, , , data dissemination, and webpage design and maintenance

I i o Provide continuous high-speed internet access to project scientists, including

visiting ones.

o Provide lodging and boarding for visiting US project scientists.

C. NOAA and MoES agree to:

o Provide scientific leadership for the project, with MoES providing streamlined project management.

o Conduct a yearly review of project activities by constituting a panel of project and external scientists

I I I o undertake comprehensive analysis of SARR data to obtain improved

characterization of the changeltrend and natural variability of the South Asian monsoon system

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I

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o Privide and promote the use of South Asian Regional Reanalysis (improved surface circulation and fluxes) for more refined state estimation of the Northern Indian Ocean

o Contribute to improved monsoon weather and climate forecasting fiom creation of the state-of-the-art assimilation-modeling infrastructure, in both research and operational settings.

o Share data and results of data analysis, and jointly publish papers in refereed journals, including one on description of the South Asian Regional Reanalysis.

I o Encourage interaction and coordination with other collaborative efforts under the

MoES-NOAA Partnership where synergies exist.

Exchange visits

NOAA will provide training to 2-3 MoES scientists in regional reanalysis techniques and procedures during 6-8 week annual visits to the University of Maryland and NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). NCEP will seek resources and assistance from NOAA's International Activities office in meeting its responsibilities. (NCEP & IA Commitments to be obtained.)

NOAA and MoES scientists will meet yearly to discuss the project's progress, and to strategize on how to best accomplish the project goals.

NOAA and MoES will separately cover travel costs associated with exchange visits for their respective technical and scientific personnel.

Time Line

Scoping Workshop (YEAR-1) of key data assimilation experts and monsoon scientists (order 25 people) to make recommendations on the project scope, including model choice, reanalysis domain, etc.

Pilot-phase data stream organization & quality checks (YEAR 1-2) I

Implementation of assimilation algorithms and regional model (YEAR 1-2)

I Assimilation technique experimentation (YEAR 1-3)

I Pilot phase reanalysis production (YEAR 2-3)

Refinement of assimilation techniques (YEAR 3-4)

Production of the 1979-2006 period regional reanalysis (YEAR 4-5)

I A dynarnics-thermodynamics consistent, high spatio-temporal resolution (S30 Krn, S3

hours) climate data set from retrospective analysis of in-situ and remotely sensed ocean- atmosphere observations for the 1979-2006 period over the South Asian Monsoon land-ocean region.

Additional Responsibilities

The Parties are responsible for coordinating and engaging with other organizational entities in their own countries, as appropriate and necessary, for the completion of the tasks designated pursuant to this Implementing Arrangement.

There shall be no exchange of funds between the Parties of this Implementing Arrangement unless otherwise agreed. This Implementing Arrangement is not intended to, and does not, create any binding obligations under international law. Each Party is to provide staff, facilities, and other support necessary for implementation of this project as mutually determined by the Parties. Such support will be subject to the availability of appropriated funds and personnel and will be in accordance with the laws and regulations of its respective country.

These responsibilities may include :

1. Management and coordination of activities undertaken under the auspices of this Implementing Arrangement;

2. Designation of appropriate officials to manage and coordinate joint activities; and

3. Provision of all necessary arrangements to facilitate entry to and exit fiom its country of personnel and equipment of the other country, engaged in or used in projects under this Implementing Arrangement.

Each Party shall be responsible for the customs clearance, at no cost to the other Party, of their equipment shipped to customs points of entry for the fulfillment of the Parties' responsibilities for scientific cooperation under this Implementing Arrangement.

The working-level contacts for this Implementing Arrangement are:

For India: A. K. Bohra Head, National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts Ministry Of Earth Sciences A-50, Institutional Area, Phase-I1 Sector-62, NOIDA, UP, Pin: 201 307 Phone: 9 1 - 120-2403900-07 Fax: 9 1 - 120-2400062,2403544 Email : akbohra@ncmrwf.gov. in

For the U.S.A. Chester Ropelewski Manager, Climate Dynamics and Experimental Prediction Program NOAA's Climate Program Office 1 3 1 5 East West Highway, 12th Floor Silver Spring MD 209 1 0 Tel: 301-734-1200 Fax: 301-713-0517 Email: Chet .Ropelewski@noaa.gov

VI. Amendments, Suspension and Termination of the Implementing Arrangement

This Implementing Arrangement will enter into force upon signature. The activities carried out under the Implementing Arrangement will terminate five years thereafter, but may be amended or extended at any time by mutual written consent of the Parties. The Parties will review this Implementing Arrangement at least once a year to determine whether it should be

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