the 2040 imperative: zero emissions by 2040

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  • www.bcsea.org

  • The climate deniers argument

  • Barry Saxifrage, May 2014

    Reality Check

    The Rapid Progressof Renewables?

  • Reality Check

    Barry Saxifrage, May 2014

  • Exported and imported carbon emissions

  • Potsdam Institute

  • 2CA nice Utopia

    International Energy Agency chief economist

    Fatih Birol

  • 2CWe need a miracle

    International negotiations

    chief Christiana Figueres

  • The idea of a 2C target is largely out of

    the window.

    Former UK government

    advisor Professor Sir Robert Watson

  • There is no longer a non-radical option. If developed economies are to play an equitable role in holding warming to 2C with 66% probability it would require at least a 40% reduction by 2018,

    70% reduction by 2024 and 90% by 2030. This would require in effect a Marshall plan for

    energy supply.

    Kevin AndersonDeputy Director,

    Tyndall Centre for Climate Research

  • 2C

  • 2C is the boundary between dangerous and very dangerous.

    James Hansen, NASA Chief Climate Scientist

  • 2012

  • 493GT

    2015

  • 304GT

    2020

  • 104GT

    2025

  • 0

    2030

  • for a 75% chancethat the global temperature will not rise by 2C

    The 2015 Global Carbon Budget

    493Gigatonnes of CO2

  • = a 25% chancethat well crash right through the 2C barrier

    The 2015 Global Carbon Budget

    493Gigatonnes of CO2

  • 2012: 699 MT

  • Canadas Other Greenhouse Gases

    MethaneNitrous OxideThe F Gases

    Also all to zero by 2040

  • Canadas 2015 CO2 emissions

    500Megatonnes of CO2

  • Canadas shareof global emissions

    1.25%

  • Canadas shareof global emissions

    1.25%The Non-Equity Model,

    divided by current emissions

  • Canadas totalCarbon Budget

    6,000 Mt of CO2

  • Canadas shareof global emissions

    0.5%The Equity Model,

    divided by population

  • Canadas totalCarbon Budget

    2,400 Mt of CO2

    The Equity Model,

    divided by populat

    ion

    Exhausted by 2020

  • How longwill the budget

    last?

  • Annual reduction in

    CO2 emissions

    % of Canadas

    2015 emissions

    Year by when zero

    emissions is achieved

    Mt of CO2 released

    before before reaching

    zero

    Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

    Year by when 6,000 Mt

    carbon budget is exhausted

    5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

    10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

    15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

    20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

    25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

    33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

    50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

    CANADAS CHOICES

  • Annual reduction in

    CO2 emissions

    % of Canadas

    2015 emissions

    Year by when zero

    emissions is achieved

    Mt of CO2 released

    before before reaching

    zero

    Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

    Year by when 6,000 Mt

    carbon budget is exhausted

    5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

    10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

    15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

    20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

    25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

    33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

    50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

    CANADAS CHOICES

  • Annual reduction in

    CO2 emissions

    % of Canadas

    2015 emissions

    Year by when zero

    emissions is achieved

    Mt of CO2 released

    before before reaching

    zero

    Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

    Year by when 6,000 Mt

    carbon budget is exhausted

    5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

    10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

    15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

    20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

    25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

    33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

    50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

    CANADAS CHOICES

  • Annual reduction in

    CO2 emissions

    % of Canadas

    2015 emissions

    Year by when zero

    emissions is achieved

    Mt of CO2 released

    before before reaching

    zero

    Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

    Year by when 6,000 Mt

    carbon budget is exhausted

    5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

    10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

    15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

    20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

    25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

    33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

    50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

    CANADAS CHOICES

  • Annual reduction in

    CO2 emissions

    % of Canadas

    2015 emissions

    Year by when zero

    emissions is achieved

    Mt of CO2 released

    before before reaching

    zero

    Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

    Year by when 6,000 Mt

    carbon budget is exhausted

    5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

    10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

    15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

    20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

    25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

    33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

    50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

    CANADAS CHOICES

  • Annual reduction in

    CO2 emissions

    % of Canadas

    2015 emissions

    Year by when zero

    emissions is achieved

    Mt of CO2 released

    before before reaching

    zero

    Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

    Year by when 6,000 Mt

    carbon budget is exhausted

    5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

    10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

    15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

    20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

    25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

    33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

    50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

    CANADAS CHOICES

  • Annual reduction in

    CO2 emissions

    % of Canadas

    2015 emissions

    Year by when zero

    emissions is achieved

    Mt of CO2 released

    before before reaching

    zero

    Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

    Year by when 6,000 Mt

    carbon budget is exhausted

    5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

    10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

    15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

    20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

    25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a

    33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

    50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

    CANADAS CHOICES

  • Annual reduction in

    CO2 emissions

    % of Canadas

    2015 emissions

    Year by when zero

    emissions is achieved

    Mt of CO2 released

    before before reaching

    zero

    Achieved emissions reduction below the 2015 level

    Year by when 6,000 Mt

    carbon budget is exhausted

    5 Mt 1 2113 24,715 13% 2028

    10 Mt 2 2064 12,420 28% 2029

    15 Mt 3 2049 8,545 63% 2030

    20 Mt 4 2041 6,500 72% 2033

    25 Mt 5 2035 5,250 100% n/a33 Mt 6.6 2030 3,995 100% n/a

    50 Mt 10 2025 2,750 100% n/a

    CANADAS CHOICES

  • Canadas Annual CO2 Reduction

    25Mt of CO2

  • 25

    4932C6,000

    2015 Global Carbon Budget Gt

    2015 Canada Carbon Budget Mt Canada Annual Reduction Mt

    Increased warming

    2015

  • ZeroBy 2040

  • The2040

    Imperative

  • Starting today

  • Starting 2020

  • 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

    Every year25 Mt CO2 reduction

  • Fossil fuels imported

    Fossil fuels extracted

  • An Annual Fossil Fuel Permits Auction

  • Each year, 25 Mt CO2 fewer permits

  • Carbon rationing, for individuals and businesses

  • The Race to Zero

  • = The Race to a Clean Green Economy

  • ELECTRICITYA Federal Clean Energy Plan

    that helps the provinces to close down all coal-fired power plants by 2025 and all gas-fired power plants by 2040, and

  • ELECTRICITYA Federal Clean Energy Plan

    to ramp up conservation, renewables and power storage to take their place, including geothermal for base-load power.

  • More solar energy reaches Earth in an hour than humans use in a year.

  • 1977: $77

    1997: $7

    2013: $0.7

    Price of Solar Module

    per Watt

  • 100 GW in 2012

    Solar PV 140-fold increase since 2000 200 GWin 2014

  • TRANSPORTATION1. An organized plan to shift all modes of transport

    to 100% renewable energy by 2040

  • 2. Municipal and regional goals for increased walking, cycling, carsharing, transit and rail.

  • 3. Provincial and national goals and incentives for EV uptake.

  • 4. The electrification of all of Canadas railways.

  • 5. The transformation of long-distance freight.

  • www.bcsea.org

  • The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries

  • The Falling Price of EV Lithium Batteries

    2018

  • The falling emissions from Europes carsGrams of CO2 per kilometre

  • Falling emissions from Europes carsGrams of CO2 per kilometre

  • 2030 Target

    0 g/km

    100% of new cars and lights trucks electric by 2030

    = almost all vehicles by 2040

  • BUILDINGSZero emissions from all new buildings starting in 2020.

    Zero emissions from existing buildings by 2040 through a nationwide program to retrofit every building for greater

    energy saving and renewable energy for heat.

  • INDUSTRYA major drive to help companies improve their

    energy efficiency, and replace the use of coal and gas with biomass or hydrogen.

  • ALBERTAS OIL SANDSFactor zero by 2040 into all NEB decisions.

    Freeze production at c