the last (5th) kondratieff wave - wordpress.com roddy fox [email protected] the last (5th) kondratieff...
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PROFESSOR RODDY FOX
The Last (5th) Kondratieff Wave AND FUTURE PROSPECTS
1
1949-1966: K4 Fordist mass production
Highways, airports/airlines
USA, Germany and other Europe, Japan, Switzerland, Sweden, Canada, Australia
‘Spring phase’ innovations: Aerospace, electronics
Now: K5 information and communication Digital networks, satellites, fibre optics
Japan, USA, Germany and other Europe, Sweden, Taiwan, Korea, Canada, Australia
‘Spring phase’ innovations: Digital networks, software, new media, bio-technologies
Industrial Countries
Post-industrial Countries
Graphics from: http://foxedblog.wordpress.com/2012/08/21/beyond-economic-growth-ebook-from-the-world-bank-group/
eg. Mozambique
eg. South Africa
eg. Sweden
Graphics from: http://foxedblog.wordpress.com/2012/08/21/beyond-economic-growth-ebook-from-the-world-bank-group/
Post-industrializingIndustrializing
Graphics from: http://foxedblog.wordpress.com/2012/08/21/beyond-economic-growth-ebook-from-the-world-bank-group/
GLOBALIZATION & INTERNATIONAL TRADE
•Technological advances lowering costs•Liberalization of trade and capital markets (de-regulation was the main topic of Inside Job)
Documentary Movie ‘Inside Job’ highlights these
This cartoon exposes the exploitation of labour in the era of globalization.
Products shown from: Uzbekistan, California, China, DRCongo, Chile, Sierra Leone, India, Guatemala, Occupied West Bank (Palestine).
http://leilaladomptable.wordpress.com/2012/01/10/im-so-happy-we-live-in-a-world-without-slavery-and-imperialism/
Graphics from NewScientist’s April 2002 The Great Globalisation Debate.
LABOUR & MANUFACTURING PROCESSES
• New International Division of Labour as MNCs (multi-national companies) have split and relocated the production process since 1960s, eg Textiles, Electronics, Automobiles
• MNCs benefit from cheap labour in peripheral or semi-peripheral countries (see cartoon)
• Technological advances in telecommunications
• MNCs can operate within regional and national trading zones or may use Export Processing Zones (EPZs) to re-export
AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY: VERTICAL INTEGRATION
Trim & Final Assembly
Toolmaking
Foundry WorkBody Parts
Engine and Transmission
Component Production
Body Assembly
Relatively Capital
Intensive
Relatively Labour
Intensive
Either Labour or Capital Intensive
Core or Semi-Periphery
Semi-Periphery
or Periphery
• Contract assembly at Thika, Kenya (up to 6,600 units per annum)
• Customer (Land Rover, Nissan) buys the imports and transports assembly kits (ie standard kits)
• Customer buys all special assembly tools (jigs) and local content
• KVM buys paint, fuel, oil, consumables and does assembly
• Customer gets access to East African Community Customs Union (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda)
EXAMPLE: KENYA VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS LTD
EXAMPLE: KENYA VEHICLE MANUFACTURERS LTD
EAC is also a part of COMESA (Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa) which has 20 member states and a population of over 400 million
FLEXIBLE PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION AND MARKETING
• Mass production & mass consumption from one plant to one national market (Fordism) has become replaced with neo-Fordism
• Levels of output, process and product configurations are now much more flexible both within and between companies
• Computer aided design and manufacturing replicate processes easily and speedily
• Information systems reduce need for stockpiles of raw materials, parts inventories and warehousing
• Sales and orders linked to small batch, just-in-time and distribution systems
SELECTED TOYOTA AUTOMOBILE OPERATIONS (1991) IN ASIAN SEMI-
PERIPHERAL AND PERIPHERAL COUNTRIES
EXPORT PROCESSING ZONES
“a relatively small, geographically separated area within a country, the purpose of which is to attract export-oriented industries, by offering them especially favorable investment and trade conditions as compared with the remainder of the host country. In particular, the EPZs provide for the importation of goods to be used in the production of exports on a bonded duty free basis.” UNIDO (1980: 6)
United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO). 1980. Export Processing Zones in Developing Countries. New York: United Nations.
EXPORT PROCESSING ZONES
• MNCs producing clothing, shoes, electronics
• Tariffs on import and re-export do not apply, limited bureaucracy, company tax breaks, infrastructure produced by home country, ‘relaxed’ labour and environmental regulations
• Said to enhance foreign exchange earnings, reduce poverty, stimulate regional economy
• 3000 EPZs in 116 countries, 43 million workers in 2002
• Highly criticized, corruption in government, exploitation of labour (single females) company does not clean up environment (footloose), benefits business/government elites
