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Precious Metals & General Market Review

February 2015 – Issue #332.a

2-1-15

Thank you for subscribing to Thirdeyeopentrades! We present weekly trading ideas for swing traders with

charts and brief commentary designed to help save you the precious time it takes in researching good

ideas. We don’t claim to know where the stocks are going but simply speculate, based upon chart setups,

where they may be likely to go. You need to do your own fundamental and technical research for each idea

present and then execute based upon your own unique trading plan and style. Thirdeyeopentrades gets you

started…you do all the work and assume all the risk! Thirdeyeopentrades is not a licensed or registered

financial advisory service so we recommend you consult your personal advisor before executing any trade.

"Bull Come Roaring Back”

It's looking like a new secular bull market in gold is underway. I want to see gold break up thru

$1230-1240 to confirm my suspicion that bull market has returned.

Gold closed out the month on Friday above its 14 month exponential moving average, the first

time since the year 2011.

The BRUTAL bear market appears to be history. I'll ring the bell once gold surpasses the $1230-

1240 range.

I think we'll see gold peak during February and then spend a few weeks pulling back and

consolidating before another push even higher for a May peak. That ought to complete the A-Rise

underway.

The Adens are not with me on this at this time. They have labeled the cycles differently but I

march onward in my speculation nevertheless.

You want to see charts.

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I'm thinking that gold stocks may roughly follow this labeled pathway over the next few months.

There's a possibility that the HUI could see 300 by May.

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The HUI at 300 is no big deal considering how far it has fallen. It will reach a resistance area

from 2006-2007 near that level and it may take a good deal of time to chew thru it.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves speculating wildly. We'll take it step by step.

This monthly chart has officially registered a buy signal. All technical indicators are in perfect

alignment for a new cyclical bull market. So far, so good.

Remember, a "buy" signal is a signal. It's not a command. It's up to each individual reader to

figure out what to do or not do. I'm not telling anyone to buy or sell anything. These are simply

observations based on personally trading this market for over a decade.

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There certainly is risk that I'm wrong. The bullish percent indicator is overbought. The MACD is

in nosebleed territory.

Again, I could be wrong. The market looks bullish yet this chart tries to smash that hypothesis.

You've been warned.

I did load the wagons, though.

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I see a flag in gold and am guessing Thursday was a 4th wave pivot low.

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This HUI model remains on a "bull" signal as of Friday's close.

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Gold looks strong. The channel is courtesy of Jesse at Jessescafeamericain.com as he saw it

unfold before I did.

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This was the last A-Rise in gold's previous cyclical bull market off the bottom in 2008. I think

gold has further to go and that this A-Rise is only half over, contrary to the Adens having labeled

a B-decline in progress.

I disagree with them. It's not the first time and won't be the last.

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Just about everyone has missed the train. It's rolling northward while folks remain on the train

platform waiting for lower prices which are not coming.

Not coming. No way. Look at that chart. Tell me, you see lower prices?

Come on.

I met with a friend today. He asked me what I thought. I told him the train has left the station. He

said he was waiting for CEF to fall another 10% before committing hundreds of thousands.

I texted him later..."Gold up 23 bucks".

Silence.

He has missed his chance. That is what a bull market does.

"Bull markets don't let you in, bear markets don't let you out". -Thirdeyeopentrades

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"I'll buy the pullback".

Sure you will. Where were you in November?

I see a big inverse head and shoulder pattern building, having just finished the left shoulder and

head. Well, we'll see.

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My buddy Mark Flavin just launched his list. Check it out:

https://stockcharts.com/public/1778656

I was fortunate that my bid for NUGT filled on Friday morning's dip after the open. I was on the

road at the time driving to Providence, RI for some much needed coffee at a favorite spot in Fox

Point.

That's Mark's chart above. He's an expert trader.

I had sold my NUGT position at $20 and was able to re-board the bus at $17.

Ordered these very early Friday morning, specially priced.

http://www.providentmetals.com/2015-canadian-silver-1oz-red-tailed-hawk.html

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I'm crazy-assed for leverage. Otherwise, this looks like a good ETF to be long. Nice flag.

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The S&P 500 Index looks vulnerable. Thirdeyeopentrades issued a Bear Market Warning on

January 11th.

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This looks like the gap will test. Price closed right on support Friday. The market feels heavy

here.

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The market feels heavy.

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The market feels heavy.

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The market is craving methadone. It feels heavy. Nineteen-o-five wants a test.

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The Thirdeyeopentrades Bull-Bear market model remains on bull but that monthly price tag

shouts "TOP".

Nineteen-o-five (1905) better hold or else Thirdeyeopentrades will issue a stronger bear market

warning.

Once the 10 month EMA crosses down thru the 12 month EMA the warning(s) will be lifted and

a Bear Market will be born yet again.

Let's see the FOMC dig itself out of that with ZIRP.

Bloody fools. Limitless credit card limit. Part time job country. GenY can't even muster up

contributions to retirement plans. Nobody owns gold.

Fools.

Figure out what your stop is this weekend if you haven't given it any thought yet. The gravy train

is running out of gravy.

The chickens come home to roost. The Piper will be paid, just a matter of time. It's still a bull

market, though. Cracks have appeared and I'm pointing it out.

What is YOUR line in the sand??

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There are the support moving averages for each market. Need to see reversals off those, folks.

Otherwise, stock up on toilet paper - you may need it.

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I know the newsletter is redundant each week. I'm trying to help you keep from frying your ass.

This is another model that works well. Once the 40 week exponential moving average crosses

down thru the 50 week EMA, it's a bear folks.

The S&P 500 is probably going to head into 1905 within the next month or two. That's my guess.

There was a LOT of volume at the 1820 swing low, so even that may test by October.

In the meantime throughout this year, we'll keep a Thirdeye on things each week for you.

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Pattern repetition and pattern recognition. That's how my brain is wired. I see repetition.

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When someone says the S&P 500 is at new highs, tell them bullshit. You have my permission.

Explain to them what it mean to inflation adjust a nominal price.

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Yep, silver got whacked. But, it's recovering. Money flow is improving.

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Silver's daily chart looks good. It gets little respect. Off new cyclical bull market lows it will

amaze you with its percentage move. It lags gold, the majority of the percentage move comes late

in the cycle.

It found support at the rising 40 day simple moving average.

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Uh, oh. Better gas up the buggy, Wendy.

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http://www.gold-eagle.com/article/gold-cot-report-flashes-yellow-flag

Some folks are real concerned about the commercial short position. I think gold will reach higher

than folks think.

I'm leaning toward $1340-1380 before there's a problem and we see gold react back into its 65

week EMA.

We'll see.

Look at the BIG PICTURE forward a couple years....

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No sweat, Daddy-O....take a CHILL PILL.

Got gold or feeling sissy?

Still can't wrap your mind around this? Fine.

Stand on your head. There. Does it look bearish now to you?

Rest my case.

Here's how the deal works.

Gold bottoms (D-decline)

Gold rises up thru the 65 week EMA (A-rise)

Gold falls back into the 65 week EMA ( B decline)

Gold blasts off higher for a long, long time. (C-rise)

We'll see.

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The Point & Figure chart for gold projects $1570, shy of my $1800 target by quite a bit.

As for next week, be cautious. The general markets look vulnerable. The gold stocks bullish

percent index is quite high. But I think we'll see the gold stocks move higher despite that.

But, we'll see. Have a great week. That's all I can do as I seem to have developed some carpal

tunnel in my right wrist and it hurts a lot to type and click any more this morning.

Cheers!

Thirdeyeopentrades wishes you Health, Wealth, Wisdom and Happiness!

Thirdeyeopentrades is not a registered financial advisory service and is not a broker dealer. We do not and cannot give

individualized market advice. The information in the newsletter is only intended for informational and educational

purposes. It should not be considered a solicitation of an offer or sale of any security. The reader assumes all risk when

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proceeding with any trade or idea presented in this newsletter. Thirdeyeopentrades may take a position and sell a

position in any security mentioned in this newsletter. We share our ideas and opinions for informational and

educational purposes only and expect the reader to perform due diligence before considering taking a position in any

security. That includes consulting with your own licensed professional financial advisor.