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Thursday, 30 May 2019

VAT Number: GB286 5218 76 UK Company Number: 10884308 DUNS Number: 223121945

VELLICHOR A2 – Analysis & Assessment

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VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE VELLICHOR in CONFIDENCE

VELLICHOR DAILY SECURITY SUMMARY 30 MAY 2019

1. COUNTRY OVERVIEW At the national political realm, President of the Presidential Council (PC), Fayez Al Sarraj, held a meeting in Tripoli yesterday with a delegation from the town of Al Ajaylat, south-west of Sabratha. During the meeting, the delegation expressed its support for the Government of National Accord (GNA), and their condemnation of the Tripoli offensive by the Libyan National Army (LNA), as well as the need for its withdrawal. The meeting also covered forms of contribution by the Al Ajaylat Municipality towards alleviating the adverse effects of the ongoing Western Region Conflict, while reviewing service levels inside the town, including the granting of prioritisation regarding the implementation of health, education and infrastructure projects. The Council of Elders and Dignitaries in Sabratha, today issued a videoed statement, expressing appreciation over the inclusion of the Sabratha Municipality under the Interim Government, while demanding deputies of the House of Representatives (HoR) from the town, to return, from the parallel-held HoR in Tripoli to the Tobruk-based HoR. President of the High Council of State (HCS), Khaled al-Mishri met with members of the Tripoli Commission yesterday, discussing the current political and security situation, as well as ways to develop cooperation between state institutions to solve issue areas in Tripoli. At the security realm, President Sarraj held a meeting yesterday with Chief of Staff, Mohammed Al-Sharif and the Commanders of the Western, Central, and Tripoli Military Regions, which included confirmation of operations progressing according to the requirements of the Second Operational Phase; full coordination between the Axes; the need to ensure the safety of civilians, and public and private facilities. The GNA Military Region has increased its targeting of LNA positions in the wider Gharyan area, including several airstrikes during the night of May 29, as well as four further airstrikes at dawn today. Reconnaissance air operations are also said to have been carried out in central regions between Gharyan and Al-Jufra, an area which has seen increased GNA Military Region activity during the past week, including several arrests of LNA forces. At approx. 1500hrs, the GNA Ministry of Interior (MoI), reported the arrest of a terror suspect, identified as Abu Jandal on May 21 by Deterrence forces in coordination with the Attorney General. It should be noted that reported terror-related arrests by GNA and GNA-affiliated security bodies have increased, since the LNA handover of Hisham Ashmawi to Egyptian Intelligence, including this morning’s report by the Misrata Joint Security Operations Room regarding the arrest operation of Fares Balhaj. In the Western Region Conflict, at approx. 1000hrs, GNA Military Region sources reported an ambush by the Hatteen Brigade on LNA forces on the Ain Zara Axis, allegedly leading to several arrests. At approx. 1300hrs, the Misrata Joint Security Operations Room reported GNA Military Region advances after last night’s offensive operations on the Al-Khillat Axis, with LNA forces being pushed southwards past Yarmouk Military Camp. At approx. 1420hrs an LNA source reported GNA Military Region mobilisation towards the Tripoli International Airport (TIP) area (exact location unspecified) said to be in preparation for offensive operations.

2. REGIONAL SUMMARIES

TRIPOLITANIA CYRENAICA FEZZAN Main area of interest: Southern Tripoli Axes – Limited military activity since this morning’s clashes. Last reported control shifts include, LNA advances on the Airport Road Axis; GNA Military Region advances on the Al-Khillat Axis; LNA advances on the Ain Zara Axis. Increased security operations, reported by the GNA MoI in the Riqdalin area, south-west of Zuwara, in light of the month of Ramadan, including static and mobile operations. According to a localised source, Islamic State (IS) elements were spotted in areas east and south of Sirte, on Tuesday night, May 28 into Wednesday morning, May 29.

Main area of interest: Oil Crescent Region – Threat warnings including the presence of hostile forces in desert areas south and south west of the Oil Crescent Region, as well as increased security operations by Interim Government forces as well as LNA Oil Facilities Guards. At approx. 1445hrs, the Great Man-Made River (GMMR) Management Authority reported an attack on a station along the Ajdabiyah – Benghazi line, earlier this morning, resulting in temporary outages in the water supply. No further reports on the IED detonation on the CID building in Derna, reported at approx. 0200hrs.

Main areas of interest: Fezzan – Ongoing state of alert due to threat warnings in the region affecting towns, villages as well as oil facilities due to the presence of hostile elements, including terrorist cells, foreign rebel forces, criminal gangs, as well as armed groups. Sabha – Reported Increases in violent crime levels (particularly carjacking incidents) as well as local complaints of insufficient security measures – two targeted killings within the last three days. At approx. 2030hrs on May 29, local media sources report a targeted killing (drive-by shooting) of an individual identified as Kamal Mohammad Othman Erhim Sulaimani in the Secondary Buildings area, Sabha.


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3. COUNTRYWIDE INCIDENTS

4. SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY

4.1 LNA Western Axes – Overview

AXIS 1: Ash Shwayrif – (through Al

Qaryat) – (through Al-Batma checkpoint) –

Mizdah – Garyan.

AXIS 2: As Saddadah – Bani Waled -

Tarhuna

AXIS 3: Hamada – (desert route) –

Alzintan – Alrujban – al Watyah Airbase

AXIS 2

AXIS 1

AXIS 3

NAVAL ROUTE:

AL-JUFRA AIRBASE

GNA MILITARY REGION AMBUSH AIRPORT ROAD

AXIS TRIPOLI

GNA MILITARY REGION

MOBILISATION TIP

TRIPOLI

GNA MILITARY REGION

AIRSTRIKES GHARYAN AREA

ATTACK GMMR STATION

AJDABIYAH – BENGHAZI LINE


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4.2 GNA Military Region Airstrikes – Gharyan Area

• It should be noted that the Abu Ghailan area was also targeted by GNA Military Region airstrikes on May 29,

reported at approx. 0200hrs.

5. OUTLOOK No Significant Changes - Political agency is likely to remain limited due to the ceasefire conditionality amongst the opposing sides, and continued divisions amongst permanent members of the UNSC. Continued offensive operations on the Southern Tripoli Axes may see significant control changes, with the LNA coming under increasing pressure to hold TIP.

Central regions surrounding the LNA supply line from Al-Jufra as well as towards southern areas of the Oil Crescent Region may see increased activity and possible hostilities. Threat warnings in the south are expected to remain, with the continued possibility of hostile acts, including terror attacks.

6. RISK RATINGS

The current residual risk ratings countrywide for the main identified security risk, post implementation of the recommended security controls as follows:

IMPACT

LIKE

LIHO

OD

LOW MEDIUM HIGH VERY HIGH EXTREME EXTREME

V HIGH ARMED CLASHES

HIGH CRIMINALITY / TRAFFIC INCIDENTS

KIDNAP

MEDIUM

LOW

GNA MILITARY REGION AIRSTRIKES:

Four airstrikes reportedly conducted at dawn

(0600hrs), on LNA positions in the respective areas.

ABUSCABH PROJECT AREA

ABU RASHADAT (CHINESE BUILDINGS)

ABU GHAILAN PARK AREA

JENDOUBA AREA


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7. MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS News Analysis: Egypt's coordination with Libya brings key anti-terror gains (Xinhua) – In the early hours of Wednesday, almost all Egyptian TV channels were airing the landing of one of Egypt's most wanted terrorists, handcuffed and blindfolded, at Cairo airport after being extradited from Libya. http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-05/30/c_138100939.htm Is ISIS the real winner of Hifter’s Tripoli offensive? (Middle East Institute) – The launch of General Khalifa Hifter’s campaign to retake Tripoli in April has intensified Libya’s political upheaval and created the conditions for a potential resurgence of ISIS. https://www.mei.edu/publications/isis-real-winner-hifters-tripoli-offensive

8. SIGNIFICANT DATES & NATIONAL HOLIDAYS

DAY DATE EVENT COMMENTS SUNDAY 17 February February 17th Revolution WEDNESDAY 01 May Labour Day WEDNESDAY 05 June Eid ul-Fitr End of Ramadan THURSDAY 06 June Eid Al Fitr Holiday End of Ramadan SUNDAY 11 August Arafat Day Date TBC. Arafat (Haj) Day MONDAY 12 August Eid Al-Adha Date varies on Lunar cycle TUESDAY 13 August Eid Al-Adha Holiday Date varies on Lunar cycle WEDNESDAY 14 August Eid Al-Adha Holiday Date varies on Lunar cycle SUNDAY 01 September Hijri New Year Islamic New Year MONDAY 16 September Martyr’s Day WEDNESDAY 23 October Liberation Day SUNDAY 10 November Birthday of Prophet Muhammad TUESDAY 24 December Independence Day

9. LIBYA 5 DAY WEATHER FORECAST

Day Description High / Low Precip Wind TODAY 30 MAY Sunny 25° / 17° 0% NE 29 km/h FRI 31 MAY Partly Cloudy 24° / 17° 20% NNE 19 km/h SAT 1 JUN Partly Cloudy 23° / 15° 0% N 16 km/h SUN 2 JUN Sunny 24° / 14° 10% NNW 16 km/h MON 3 JUN Sunny 26° / 17° 0% N 12 km/h

10. GENERAL SECURITY & SAFETY RECOMMENDATIONS

Political situation – The political situation in Libya remains fragile and the security situation remains dangerous and unpredictable. Fighting can break out anywhere without warning, including between local militia groups, and many civilians have been killed in outbreaks of conflict in residential areas. There’s a high risk of civilians, including journalists, humanitarian and medical workers, being caught in indiscriminate gunfire or shelling, including air strikes, in all areas where there is fighting. Political events may impact on the security situation. Reports of violence, reprisal killings, looting and human rights abuses continue across the country. If you are planning to travel to Libya, you should monitor the local security situation carefully and use a licensed and reputable security provider, you should never travel alone. Crime – Ongoing conflict and the proliferation of armed militias has led to a rise in crime in most areas, including violent robbery, carjacking and kidnapping. There’s an elevated risk of kidnap for ransom and arbitrary detention by local militias


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throughout Libya, and a very high risk of criminal kidnap for ransom in Tripoli and coastal towns to the West of Tripoli. Foreigners are increasingly targeted for kidnappings by both criminal and extremist groups. Local travel – If you travel to Libya, you should regularly reassess your security arrangements and carefully plan your movements. Take security advice from competent security experts before any travel within the country. Close security protection is extremely important. In the event of a further deterioration of the security situation, routes in and out of major cities and towns may become blocked and airports closed or inaccessible at little or no notice. Don’t advertise your travel or other plans through social media. Avoid routine, vary your travel routes, and keep a low profile at all times. Road travel – Road travel within Libya remains highly dangerous. There continues to be a risk of being caught up in outbreaks of hostilities. There’s also a high risk of carjacking and robbery. The coastal road between Zawiyah and Tripoli presents an elevated risk. There’s a risk of striking unexploded ordnance off-road. Road traffic accidents are frequent and often result in fatalities. Chad and Niger have closed their border with Libya on several occasions in 2017 without warning, in response to the activity of armed groups in the area. Tunisian border crossings are affected by frequent clashes along the coastal road in west Libya and are often inaccessible. Air travel – Airports across Libya can close without warming and airlines may change their flight schedule without notice. Contact your airline or travel company for further information before travelling. Due to a number of ongoing safety concerns, the European Union has agreed with the Libyan authorities to continue a voluntary restriction on Libyan airlines flying into the EU. However, some Libyan airlines operate flights to the EU using aircraft leased from other airlines. We cannot offer advice on the safety of airlines. However, the International Air Transport Association publishes a list of registered airlines that have been audited and found to meet a number of operational safety standards and recommended practices. This list is not exhaustive and the absence of an airline from this list does not necessarily mean that it is unsafe. VELLICHOR Disclaimer: You are responsible for your own safety abroad and for making the decision to travel. The information contained in this advisory is provided for information only. Whilst care is taken to ensure that this advisory is as up-to-date and accurate as possible, it is provided on an "as is" basis without any representation or endorsement made and without warranty of any kind, express or implied. VELLICHOR does not assume responsibility and shall not be liable for any damages in connection to the advisory information provided.


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thursday, 30 may 2019 - vellichorgroup.com group limited i... · at the national political realm,...

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