Timing of the Second Maasvlakte

Maurits van Schuylenburg

January 17th 2002

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Port of Rotterdam: facts and figures Rotterdam Municipal Port Management Projections of space requirements Timing problem: strategic reserveResearch MethodologySimulation modelResults

Content Presentation

4

Port of Rotterdam: facts and figures

Total area 10,500 hectares

Industrial area 5,000 hectares

Total employment 350,000 people

Total added value 18 billion EURO’s

Regional added value 7 billion EURO’s

Throughput (2001) 316 million tonnes

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Statistics: Rotterdam Municipal Port management

Employees: 1,200

Leased land: 4,905 hectares

Turnover: 350 mln. EURO’s

Operating profit: 67 mln. EURO’s

Invested capital: 2,833 mln. EURO’s

Return on investment: 10.6 %

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Mission RMPM

The RMPM strengthens the position of the

industrial port complex in an European

perspective. Now and in the long term.

The RMPM is the port authority and an

international operating service provider.

2020, Integrated Projections

1995 2020

Throughput 297 mio tons 480 mio tons

Container throughput 4.8 mio TEU 17.6 mio TEU

Demand of space 3,900 ha 5,450 ha

Modal split (cont.) 31 % barge 40 %

14 % rail 18 %

55 % road 42 %

Employment 315,000 persons 375,000 persons

Value added 38.6 bln Dfl 104 bln Dfl

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Demand for space in the port area 1996 - 2020 (in hectares)

Goods traffic 850

Distribution 275

Industry 590

Other 65

Strategic reserve 575

Total demand 2,355

To be found in port area 1,095

Lack of space 1,260

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Existing port area

Survey of industrial land, as of 1 January 1997

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Alternative layouts for Maasvlakte 2

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Land Reclamation

Two alternative designs:Via Yangtze Port

* Nett number of hectares to be granted: 1,000 (in phases)

* Entrance via Yangtze Port (width 500 m.)

* Costs: 1.8 billion EURO’s

Separate Entrance* Nett number of hectares to be granted: 1,000 (in phases)

* Inland shipping via Yangtze port (width 200 m.)* Costs: 2.3 billion EURO’s

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Parties involved

Official players:

* National Government (5 ministries)

* Province of South Holland

* Municipality of Rotterdam

* Stadsregio Rotterdam (Greater Rotterdam Area)

Actors:

* Environmental and Nature Groups

* Employers / employees

* Municipalities involved

* Private firms

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History

October 1991 Draft Portplan 2010

December 1993 Portplan 2010

Plan of Action ROM

1996 - 1997 National discussion

May 1998 Start Project Mainportdevelopment

Rotterdam (PMR)

June 1998 2020, Integrated projections for Port

and Industry (Verkenningen 2020)

December 1999 Consultation of the market

June 2000 Visie en Durf (Vision and Guts)

July 2000 Cabinet letter to Parliament

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Planning Process PMR

May 2001: Cabinet decision about PKB-part 1 and MER

Summer 2001: results consultation & advice (PKB-part 2)

December 2001: Cabinet’s definite stance (PKB-part3)

Spring 2002: final decision parliament (PKB-part 4)

and start procedures of appeal

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Timing of the Second Maasvlakte

Problem description:

When do we have to start with the construction of the

Second Maasvlakte?

Too early ==> high costs

Too late ==> loss of customers

Long term sectoral space projections are based on

annual average growth. In reality the demand for

space fluctuates strongly.

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Timing of the Second Maasvlakte

Research Methodology (1997):

building of simulation model of the demand for

space

with the model the the probability of annual

space demands were determined

with an accepted chance of ‘saying no’ to a

customer ==> annual space demand is

determined

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Timing of the Second Maasvlakte

Input data:

annual growth per sector (projections)

average space demand per occasion per sector i => i

average number of occasions per sector i per year =>i

statistical distributions of space demand per occasion, based

on actual data tested with “Kolmogorov-Smirnov Goodness of

Fit”

Arrival pattern both Poisson and Erlang-K (k=4) tested

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Timing of the Second Maasvlakte

ha/jr

Transhipment 18,2 9,2 1,97

Distribution 6,6 1,3 5,08

Chemical industry 16,0 13,9 1,15

Other 2,28 0,64 3,56

Total 43,1 3,66 11,76

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Timing of the Second Maasvlakte

Results of simulation study

0200400600800

100012001400

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

year -->

hec

tare

s --

>

average

90%

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Timing of the Second Maasvlakte

Three years before hectares are rented,

options are given

In these 3 years financing is arranged,

terminal is built etc.

==> Land is needed about 3 years before

actual use

building time of MV2 dependent on alternative

and phase 4-6 years

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Timing of the Second Maasvlakte

Results of simulation studyincl. options

0200400600800

100012001400

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

year -->

hecta

res -

-> average

90%

average

90%

Example: 700 ha still available 90% criterion options 3 years building time 4 years==> shortage in 2006 ==> start building in 2002

Thank You!