TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE IN PAKISTAN

A Paradigm Shift that will Improve the Quality of Life in Pakistan

Part 1: Earthquakes

Disaster resilience, which is the

capacity of a country to rebound

quickly after the socioeconomic

impacts of a disaster,

requires decision-making for a

national paradigm shift from the

status quo.

WHEN A COUNTRY IS DISASTER

PRONE, CONTINUATION OF THE

STATUS QUO

Will result in new and more complex

HEALTH PROBLEMS

WILL result in unnecessary

DEATHS AND INJURIES

WILL result in longer and more costly

RECOVERY and RECONSTRUCTION

GLOBAL NATURAL HAZARDS

• FLOODS

• SEVERE

WINDSTORMS

• EARTHQUAKES

• TSUNAMIS

• DROUGHTS

• VOLCANIC

ERUPTIONS

• LANDSLIDES

• WILDFIRES

WHAT DO WE KNOW?

• Disaster resilience has become an

urgent global goal in the 21st

century as many Nations are

experiencing disasters after a

natural hazard strikes, and learning

that their communities, institutions,

and people do NOT yet have the

capacity to be disaster resilient.

PAKISTAN IS PRONE TO

NATURAL HAZARDS

• FLOODS

• EARTHQUAKES

• DROUGHTS

• LANDSLIDES

MULTIPLE DISASTER

THREATS

• Pakistan faces increasing

threats each year from floods

and earthquakes, some of which

have triggered notable disasters

in recent years, and - - -

• Could do it again.

TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE

IN PAKISTAN

• Step 1: Integrate Past Experiences Into

Books of Knowledge

• Step 2: From Books of Knowledge to

Innovative Educational Surges to Build

Professional and Technical Capacity

• Step 3: From Professional and Technical

Capacity to Disaster Resilience

NOTE: Step 2 is a task for a

Nation’s “Academies of Science,

Engineering and Medicine,” its

educational institutions at all

levels, and its electronic and

print media that provide public

information

NOTE: Step 3 is a task for a

Nation’s “decision-makers,” (i.e., its political leaders,

stakeholders, and leading

professionals)

who have a basis for deciding

on the nature and scope of a

national paradigm shift

Step 1: Integrate Past

Experiences Into Books of

Knowledge (i.e., everything we know or think we

know about Pakistan’s earthquakes)

PART 1:

Earthquakes

1909,1929,1931, 1935, 1945,

1974, 2005, 2008, 2011,

2013

KASHMIR

EARTHQUAKE

8:52 AM SATURDAY, OCTOBER 8, 2005

M7.6

10 KM (6 MI) DEPTH

78,000 DEAD IN PAKISTAN

COLLAPSED BUILDINGS, SCHOOLS, AND HOSPITALS

HOMELESS

A NOTABLE HISTORIC

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

• KASHMIR – OCTOBER 8, 2005; M7.6;

8:52 am; 78,000 Deaths; 138,000 Injured;

Hundreds of Thousands Homeless; $4.5

Billion in Economic Losses.

• Destroyed more than 600,000 homes, 6,500

schools, 800 clinics and hospitals, and more

than 3,700 miles (5,900 kilometers) of road.

SOURCE ZONE: THE INDO-AUSTRIALIA PLATE

COLLIDING WITH EURASIAN PLATE

OCCURRENCE

• The earthquake occurred in the

Main Boundary Thrust Zone

(MBTZ), which runs along the

Himalayan Arc for about 2,500

km.

PAKISTAN: START PREPARING

FOR REALITY

• Experts believe that the October 8th

2005 earthquake released only

about 10 percent of the accumu-

lated strain energy, - - -

• So, at least two generations of

Pakistanis are still at risk.

FIVE UNCONTROLLABLE

FACTORS

• The severity of the disaster was

exacerbated by five uncontrollable

factors: 1) the time of day, 2) the day of

the week, 3) the time of the year, 4) the

magnitude and shallow depth of the

quake, and 5) the poor soils and

mountainous terrain of the region.

TWO CONTROLLABLE

FACTORS• The severity of the disaster was

exacerbated by two other factors that

happened gradually over time:

• 1) the poor quality of construction of

buildings and lifeline systems, and

• 2) the loss of capacity to anticipate and

prepare for the deaths, injuries, and

socioeconomic losses in a disaster.

TIMING OF THE

EARTHQUAKE

• It occurred 19 km (12 mi) from

Muzaffarabad, the capital of Pakistani

administered Kashmir.

• It happened at 8:52 am on a Saturday

morning during the month of Ramadan

while students were in school and

adults were taking a nap at home after

their pre-dawn meal.

COLLAPSED BUILDINGS

• Within a few minutes, more than 32,000

buildings in Pakistan collapsed during

the strong ground shaking,

• Entire towns and villages were partially

to totally destroyed, and

• Destructive landslides were triggered.

INFRASTRUCTURE and

COMMUNICATION

• Within minutes, - - -

• Most of the transportation

infrastructure was damaged or lost

its function as a result of the

ground shaking and landslides,

and communication systems were

disrupted or became inoperative.

MUZARAFFABAD: 19 KM FROM

EPICENTER

MUZAFFARABAD: LANDSLIDE

19 KM FROM EPICENTER

ISLAMABAD: 105 KM FROM

EPICENTER

NOTE: ISLAMABAD: 2015

(almost 10 years after the quake)

BALAKOT

BALAKOT

VICTIMS BURIED IN THE

RUBBLE

• Many students were buried in the

rubble of collapsed school buildings

and could not be rescued in time.

• Others were trapped in the rubble of

their collapsed homes and apartment

buildings and could not be rescued.

ISLAMABAD

ISLAMABAD

ISLAMAAD

COMPLEX EMERGENCY

RESPONSE

• Hospitals and rescue services,

including police and armed forces, had

to overcome huge obstacles such as

limited resoruces, collapsed facilities,

damage to transportation systems, and

disrupted communications to meet the

urgent needs of thousands of injured

and homeless survivors.

RESPONSIVE IN SPITE OF

THE PROBLEMS

• The Pakistan government and

the people were very

responsive to the situation.

• The World Health Organization

(WHO) provided specialized

assistance to the Pakistanis.

ISLAMABAD

RELIEF, AFTERSHOCKS, AND

LANDSLIDES

• The relief effort to supply medical

attention, food, clean water. and

temporary shelter for the survivors

was hampered by aftershocks, as

well as by landslides and falling

rocks, making parts of the region

inaccessible for several days..

MUZAFFARABAD

MUZAFFARABAD

MUZAFFARABAD

ISLAMABAD

BALAKOT

INTERNATIONAL

COOPERATION

• Five crossing points were opened on

the line of control (LoC), between India

and Pakistan, to facilitate the flow of

humanitarian and medical aid to the

survivors.

MUZAFFARABAD FOOD LINE

FOOD DISTRIBUTION WAS

AMAZINGLY EFFICIENT

FOOD DISTRIBUTION

INTERNATIONAL ASSIS-

TANCE

• Nearly $7 billion in international

aid was pledged by many

different countries to facilitate

one of the largest relief and

reconstruction operations in

modern times.[

Step 2: From Books of

Knowledge to Innovative

Educational Surges to Build

Professional and Technical

Capacity in Pakistan to

Minimize Likely Impacts in the

Next Earthquake Disaster

This is a task that is best per-

formed by Pakistani “Academies

of Science, Engineering and

Medicine,” existing educational

institutions, and electronic and

print media focused on public

information for all sectors

2005-12-2015: USING THE PAST

TO PREPARE FOR TOMORROW

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO

HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING

EARTHQUAKES

SOIL AMPLIFICATION

PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT

(SURFACE FAULTING & GROUND

FAILURE)

IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION

AND PLAN

TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP

LACK OF DETAILING AND

CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS

INATTENTION TO NON-

STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS

CAUSES

OF RISK

CASE HISTORIES

GOAL: MINIMIZE THE “DOMINOE

EFECTS” OF THE NEXT DISASTER

Step 3: From Professional and

Technical Capacity to Science-

based Decision-making for a

Paradigm Shift from the status

quo to Disaster Resilience in

Pakistan

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

Are “TOOLS” to facilitate

Pakistan’s continuing commitment

to minimize the likely impacts of

the inevitable future earthquake,

thereby preventing another

disaster

SCIENCE-BASED PAKISTAN

EARTHQUAKE ZONE MAP

LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS

INCREASED

DEMANDS ON

COMMUNITY

A DISASTER:

INSUFFICIENT

CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITY

LIVING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS

DEMANDS ON

COMMUNITY

MINIMIZED IMPACTS OF THE

NEXT EARTHQUAKE:

CAPABILITIES OF

COMMUNITY

PAKISTAN’S

COMMUNITIESDATA BASES

AND INFORMATION

HAZARDS:GROUND SHAKING

GROUND FAILURE

SURFACE FAULTING

TECTONIC DEFORMATION

TSUNAMI RUN UP

AFTERSHOCKS

•NATURAL HAZARDS

MAPS

•INVENTORY

•VULNERABILITY

•LOCATION

RISK ASSESSMENT

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

POLICIES TO

MINIMIZE IMPACTS

•PREPAREDNESS

•PROTECTION/PREVENTION

•EARLY WARNING

•EMERGENCY RESPONSE

•RECOVERY

POLICY OPTIONS