uk energy scenarios_2006
TRANSCRIPT
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UK ENERGY SCENARIOS
crossing the fossil and nuclear bridge to
a safe, sustainable, economically viable energy future
Preliminary scenarios
for discussion and development only
Mark Barrett
Complex Built Environment Systems
University College London
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Scenario development process
Introduction
Models used
Demand drivers
End use sectors
Supply sectors
Discussion
energy
emissions
economics
System dynamics and spatial issues
More international aspects
Energy security
Please note that some of the slides are
animated (they have animated in the
title). View these slides for a few
moments and the animation should
start and keep looping back to the
beginning.
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Introduction 1
This outline of UK energy and environment scenarios has been developed with the intention of identifying themain problems the UK will face in meeting future energy needs and environmental objectives, and todescribe possible policy options for resolving these problems. The approach here is to assume policyoptions and estimate the energy, emission and microeconomic impacts of these policy options. It is not
claimed that the scenarios are optimum in that more robust and cost-effective solutions may be found.The aim is to illustrate a development path that is incremental, flexible, and secure, with no unduereliance on fuels or technologies having substantial risks.
The aims are to identify energy and environment strategies that: enhance the security of UK energy services by reducing imported fuel dependence and technology risk
meet energy needs with safe, sustainable energy systems
limit environmental impact, with an emphasis here on:
the greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide,
atmospheric pollutants; sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter and carbon monoxide
are technically feasible and economically viable
give a practical development path leading from finite fuels to renewable energy
A broader aim is to consider temporal and spatial aspects of energy demand and supply, within the UK and atthe international scale, to ensure technical feasibility and take account of the international context
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Introduction 2
The scenarios are designed to be practical, feasible, but are not necessarily best. It is not possible toobjectively define the best scenario because:
although there is some agreement about goals concerning the environment, consumption, technologyrisk and irreversibility, market cost, subsidies, etc., the weights attached to these goals are subjectiveand differ between individuals and groups
there are aspects which it will never be possible to accurately quantify, such as: what is the probability ofan accident or terrorist attack on current or future nuclear facilities, and what would be its impact on theUK, even if radioactive release were negligible?
the future evolution of technologies in the long term is uncertain; half a century ago, the UK hadnegligible nuclear power or natural gas supply.
Some observations:
Developments of social structure, attitudes, demand, supply, technology, etc. are all, to some extent,determined by national policies.
Planning UK energy futures can not be done in isolation from Europe and the rest of the world, becauseof global energy resources, energy trade, and international politics.
As yet there are no supply options which score highest on all criteria and therefore these must balanced
according to present knowledge. The further into the future, the greater the uncertainties with respect todemand, technology development, and the international context. As solar electricity (e.g. photovoltaic),electricity storage and long distance transmission become cheaper, then there may be agreement thatother options are inferior and the energy problem will perhaps be solved..
No consideration is made here of how policy options would be implemented with statutory, fiscal or otherinstruments. A presumption is made that these would be developed and applied as necessary to securethe UKs future energy services and economy, and to protect the environment.
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Policy options
The policy aims are to be met using five classes of option:
Behavioural change: demand, and choice and use of technologies
demand substitution, less air travel
modal shift from car and truck to bus and rail, lower motorway speeds, building temperatures
smaller cars
Demand management insulation, ventilation control, recycling, efficient appliances...
Energy efficient conversion
cogeneration...
Fuel switching
to low/zero emission renewable and other sources
Emission control technologies
flue gas desulphurisation, catalytic converters, particulate traps...
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Policy options
In the scenarios, technologies are excluded according to criteria of irreversibility, exposure to risk of large scalehazards, the lack of clear market costs, or if they do not work. Accordingly:
new nuclear capacity is excluded because of irreversibility, lack of market cost because of insurance, and risk of
large scale hazard.
carbon sequestration through pumping CO2 underground is not deployed because it an irreversible techniquethat increases primary CO2 emissions, and the risks of accidental release in the long term are impossible to
quantify reliably. It also may be argued that sequestration will diminish efforts towards energy efficiency and
renewables. fusion is excluded because it does not work and would produce radioactive wastes.
The challenge is to construct scenarios that do not use these options.
Currently, hydrogen is not included in any scenario. This is primarily because of the low overall efficiency ofproducing hydrogen from electricity or gas and then converting it into motive power or heat: it wastes moreprimary fossil or renewable energy than using electricity as a vector. In the stationary sectors, it is better to use
electricity, renewable and fossil fuels directly. In surface transport vehicles, an increasing fraction of demandcan be met with electricity in hybrid electric/fossil fuelled vehicles. Hydrogen as a fuel for aircraft is a distantprospect. If the production and utilisation efficiency of hydrogen improve, or other difficulties, such as electricvehicle refuelling are insurmountable, then hydrogen would be reviewed.
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Scenarios
With these classes of options and exceptions, the aim is to show that commonly agreed social, environmentaland economic objectives can be achieved with low risk.
Five scenarios combining the five classes of policy option in different ways have been simulated. Proceedingfrom scenario 1 to 5 results in decreased emissions and use of technologies or fuels that haveirreversible impacts.
1. Base/Kyoto: base scenario2. Carbon15: medium levels of technical change
3. Behaviour: behavioural change only
4. Tech High: high levels of technical change
5. Tech Beh: technical and behavioural change
The scenarios presented here are preliminary and for discussion because:
recent historic data were not available at the time of scenario development
many technical and economic aspects of the scenarios need a thorough review
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Integrated planning
Energy planning should be integrated across all segments of demand and supply. If this is not done, the
system may be technically dysfunctional or economically suboptimal. Energy supply requirements aredependent on the sizes and variations in demands, and this depends on future social patterns anddemand management. For example:
In 2040, what will electricity demand be at 4 am? If it is small, how will it affect the economics of supplyoptions with large inflexible units, such as nuclear power?
The output from CHP plants depends on how much heat they provide, so the contribution of micro-CHPin houses to electricity supply depends on the levels of insulation in dwellings.
Solar collection systems produce most energy at noon, and in the summer. The greater the capacity ofthese systems, the greater the need for flexible back-up supplies and storage for when solar input is
low.
The scope for electric vehicles depends on demand details such as average trip length. Electric vehicleswill add to electricity demand, but they reduce the need for scarce liquid fuels and add to electricitystorage capacity which aids renewable integration.
Electricity supply systems with a large renewable component require flexible demand management,storage, electricity trade and back-up generation; large coal or nuclear stations do not fit well into suchsystems because their output cannot easily be varied over short time periods.
The amount of liquid biofuels that might available for air transport depends on how much biomass can
be supplied, and demands on it for other uses, such as road transport. Is it better to burn biomass in CHP plants and produce electricity for electric vehicles, or inefficiently
convert it to biofuels for use in conventional engines?
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Models used for constructing scenarios
Some description and sample outputs are presented for the following models:
SEEScen: Society, Energy and Environment Scenario model used for basic national energy scenariosacross all sectors
EleServe : Electricity system model used to study detailed operation of electricity system
EST Energy Space Time model used to illustrate issues concerning time varying demands and renewablesources at geographically distant locations
InterEnergy Energy trade model used to study potential for international exchanges of energy to reducecosts and facilitate the integration of renewable energy
More on the models may be found at:
http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Energy/Energy.htm
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Technical basis: SEEScen: Society, Energy, Environment Scenario model
SEEScen is applicable to any largecountry having IEA energystatistics
SEEScen calculates energy flows inthe demand and supply sectors,and the microeconomic costs ofdemand management and energyconversion technologies andfuels
SEEScen is a national energy modelthat does not address detailedissues in any demand or supplysector.
Method
Simulates system over years, orhours given assumptions about
the four classes of policy option
Optimisation under development
HISTORY
FUTURE
COSTS
INPUTS /ASSUMPTIONS
IMPACTSENERGY
IEA dataEnergyPopulation, GDPOther dataClimate, insulation...
Delivered fuel
End use fuel mix
End use efficiency
Delivered fuel byend use
Useful energy
SocioeconomicUseful energy
Delivered energy
Lifestyle changeDemand
End use fuel mix
End use efficiency
Conversion
Primary energy
Supply efficiency
EmissionsCapitalRunning Distribution losses
Supply mix
Trade
Conversion
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Energy services and demand drivers
Demands for energy services are determined by humanneeds, these include
food comfort, hygiene, health
culture
Important drivers of demand include:
Population increases
Households increase faster because of smallerhouseholds
Wealth, but energy consumption and impacts
depend on choices of expenditure on goods andservices which are somewhat arbitrary
The drivers are assumed to be the same in all scenarios.
The above drivers are simply accounted for in the model,but others are not, for example:
Population ageing, which will result in increases anddecreases of different demands
Changes in employment Environmental awareness
Economic restructuring
More on consumption at:
http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Consumption/Consumption.htm
0
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M
GBR: TechLifes tyle: Population
SHHPop_M
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
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2005
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M
GBR: TechLifestyle: Households
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Energy demand: food
Food consumption increases with population. Therefore:
More biowaste for energy supply
Less land for energy crops, depending on import fraction
Land and energy use for food depends on food trade and factors such as the fraction of meat in the diet
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
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2035
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2050
PJ
GBR: TechHigh: Food
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Future demand: general considerations
Predicting the activities that drive the demands for energy is fundamentally important, but uncertain, not least
because activities are partially subject to policy.
Some demands may stabilise or decrease, for example:
commuting travel as the population ages and telecommunications develop
space heating as maximum comfort temperature levels are achieved
Demands may increase because of the extension of current activities:
heating might extend to conservatories, patios, swimming pools
air conditioning may become more widespread
cars might become heavier and more powerful
as the population enjoys more wealth and a longer retirement, more leisure travel might ensue
Or because new activities are invented, these being difficult to predict:
new ways of using energy might arise; witness home computers, cinemas, mass air travel in the past; thefuture we may see space tourism
Basic activity levels are assumed to be the same in all scenarios, although in reality they are scenario dependent.For example, many activities are influenced by scenario dependent fuel prices - the purchase and use of cars,air travel, home heating.
Furthermore, energy consumption in the services sector and industrial sectors are themselves dependent on basicenergy service demands. For example: energy consumption for administering public transport or aviation isdependent on the demands for those services; the energy consumed in the iron and steel or vehiclemanufacturing industry depends on how many cars are made, which is scenario dependent; the energyconsumption of manufacturing industry depends on how much loft insulation there is houses. The effects ofenergy demands on economic structure and its energy consumption are not considered here. (This is rarelyanalysed in energy scenarios because the effects of these structural changes may be relatively small; and it isdifficult to calculate them.)
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Future demand: activity projections
In these scenarios, the activity growth in all sectors is assumed to follow from population, household and wealth
drivers. The activity projections are shown in the chart. The outstanding growth is in international aviation, a
service the UK mainly exports.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
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2020
2025
2030
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2040
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2050
Indx1990
Ind:Iron and s teel
Ind:Chem/petrochem(inc feed)
Ind:Heavy
Ind:Light
Agr:
Oth:
Ser:
Res:
Tra:Nat pass enger
Tra:Nat freight
Tra:Int pass enger
Tra:Int freight
B
:
chBh:
ctivity
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Domestic sector
The main options exercised:
Clothing, heating system control and thermostat setting
High levels of insulation and ventilation control
Efficient lights and appliances
Solar water heating, micro gas CHP and electric heat pumps are the main supply options
Zoned heating and clothing to reduce average house temperature
Note that solar electricity production (e.g photovoltaic) is included under central supply, even though much of it
would be installed at end users premises.
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Comfort temperature, clothing and activity
Appropriate clothing reduces energy demand and emissions. A slight improvement in clothing could reducebuilding temperatures. A degree reduction in average building temperature could reduce space heating
needs by about 10%.
Acti it & Metab licRate (W/ 2)
5
10
15
20
25
30
0.0 Nake
.3 i t
.5 i t
.8 ical
1. ical
1.3 Wa
1.5 Wa
1.8 ecial
2. ecial
Cl t i le el
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Building use
Better control heating systems in terms of time control and zoning of heating can reduce average internal
temperature and energy use.
3
8
13
18
23
28
A b. e
t : itti
t :Kitc e
t :Be s
: itti
:Kitc e
:Be s
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Domestic sector: house heat loss factors
Implementation of space heat demand management (insulation, ventilation control) depends on housing needs
and stock types, replacement rates, and applicability of technologies. Insulation of the building envelopeand ventilation control can reduce house heat losses to minimal levels.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990
1995
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2005
2010
2015
2020
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2035
2040
2045
2050
W/oC
Ve
ss
!
"
#
$
% w
#
a &
aque
F
r
GBR: c Beh: W/oC : lements
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House: monthly space heating and cooling loads
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
GJ/mont
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
oC
Gross
Incidental gain
Solar
Heat
Cool
Ambient temperature
Equilibrium temperature, no
heating/coolingThermostat temperature
United Kingdo m 2005 : TechLifesty le Scenario : Hous e
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
GJ/mont
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
oC
Gross
Incidental gain
Solar
Heat
Cool
Ambient temperature
Equilibrium temperature, no
heating/cooling
Thermos tat temperature
United Kingdom 2050 : TechLifestyle Scenario : Hous e
Energy conservation
technologies have
these effects:
Space heatingdemand is greatlyreduced byinsulation and othermeasures
The potentialgrowth in airconditioningdepends ondetailed housedesign andtemperature control
There is less
seasonal variationin total heatdemand
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Domestic sector: useful energy services per household
Space heating reduced, but not comfort
Other demands eventually grow because of basic drivers
Water heating becomes a large fraction of total, demand management requires further analysis
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
GJu/h
C' ' (
S)
ace AC
S) ace H
0
a1
er H
C' ' k2
3 4
L2
4
5
1
E(e
6
7
2
)
GBR: echBeh: Res e t : seful
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Domestic sector: electricity use
Electricity demand is reduced because of more efficient appliances, including heat pumps for space heating.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300350
400
450
500
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PJ
Ai on_
t _
t _
t _
oo _
W h_ W
F z _
ig_
ig_
Di hW_ W
W h_ W
ight_
ip_
GBR hBeh Residenti ectricity
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End use sectors: energy delivered to services sector
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
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PJ
H_S8 9
ar
H_@ A B e
E_
S_CH@
L_CH@
C_CH@
S_
L_
C_
GBR: echBeh: ervices : fuel b sector
More commentary to follow.
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End use sectors: energy delivered to industry sector
More commentary to follow.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
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1995
2000
2005
2010
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PJ
HD
E F Gar
HD
H
I
P e
Q
D
E
D
RHH
S
D
R HH
T
D
RHH
E
D
S
D
T
D
GBR: echBeh: Industry : fuel y sector
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Transport
Options exercised:
Demand management, especially in aviation sector
Reduction in car power and top speed
Increase in vehicle efficiency
light, low drag body
improved motor efficiency
Implentation of speed limits
Shift to modes that use less energy per passenger or freight carried:
passengers from car to bus and train freight from truck to train and ship
Increased load factor in the aviation sector
Some penetration of vehicles using alternative fuels:
electricity for car and vans
biofuels principally for longer haul trucks and aircraft
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Passenger transport: carbon emission by purpose
U
V
ucationW
X
Y opping
a b X
c eV
ical (pers)
a X
dt
er personal
e X
U at/V
rinkW
X
To frienV
s
a e X
Y
ocialW
X
U
ntertainf
X
Yport (
V
o)W
X
gol i
V
ayf
X
h ay tripf
X
dt
er
b X
Uscort
6X
Ca b e issib se
k30%
I k13%
Commuting and travel in work account for
40-50% of emissions
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Passenger transport: carbon emission purpose and by trip
length
Stage ength (km)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.02.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2000
10
20
30
40
5060
70
80
90
100
N -w k
I w k
a w k
Carb nd o deem ss on (MtC)
% t w k
C mu ative pr portion
% N w k% i w k
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Passenger transport use by mode trip length
Sta i e p e q i t r (ks )
0
5
1 0
1 5
2 0
2 5
0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0 4 0 0 4 5 0 5 0 0
Ca t / u a q v ax i w x t x t c y cle B s
C x ac r U q e t i t x q v t aiq Ot r e t blic
Short distance car trips account for bulk of emissions.
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Passenger transport : potential effect of teleworking
Mini stage engt ft e ew r ingsubsti tuti n ( i es)
educt ion on total carbonemi ionfromU a enger tran port
educt ion on emi ionofcommut i g
educt ion on emi ionof i work travel
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Passenger transport: carbon emission by mode of travel
Load actor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10 % 20% 30 % 40 % 50% 60% 70 % 80% 90 % 100%
0
50
100
150
200
250 /c cle
M e
Ca
B
s
ai
Ai c at
Ca a e a e
Aircraft
C a teSc e le
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Passenger transport: mode of travel by distance
S t a g e Le n g th ( M i l e s )
0 %
2 0 %
4 0 %
6 0 %
8 0 %
1 0 0 %
1 2 3 5 10
15
25
35
50
75 1
00
150
200
e
W a lk B ic c le Ca / a a x i M t c c le
B s C a c j U k e l k BR O t j e m blic1985 /6
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Passenger transport: carbon emission by car performance
gra es Carb erk
0
5
10
15
20
25
25 35 45 55 65 75 85
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Accelerati
F el
See
UKs eeli it
Petrol
ieselMicrocars
Car carbon emissions are strongly related to top speed, acceleration and weight. Most cars
sold can exceed the maximum legal speed limit by a large margin. Switching to small carswould reduce car carbon emissions by about 40% in ten years. Switching to micro cars and
the best liquid fuelled cars would reduce emissions by about 90% in the longer term.
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Passenger transport: Risk of injury to car drivers involved in
accidents between two cars
Cars that are big CO2 emitters are most dangerous because of their weight, and because theyare usually driven faster. In a collision between a small and a large car, the occupants of the small
car are much more likely to be injured or killed. The most benign road users (small cars, cyclists,
pedestrians) are penalised by the least benign.
100
140
180
220
260
Sma Sma me um Me um La e u eee
O2
m
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Riskinju
O2%se ious
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Transport: road speed and CO2 emission
Energy use and carbon
emissions increasestrongly with speed.Curves for other pollutantsgenerally similar, becauseemission strongly relatedto fuel consumption.
These curves are onlyapplicable to current
internal combustionvehicles. Characteristics offuture vehicles (e.g. urbaninternal combustion andelectric powered) would bedifferent. Minimumemission would probablybe at a lower speed, andthe fuel consumption andemissions at low speedswould not show the same
increase.
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
5 25 45 65 85 105 125 145
kph
Car(D,> 2.0n, Eo R
IV) Car(P,< 1.4
n, Eo R
IV)
Car(P,1.42.0
n, Eo R
IV) Car(P,> 2.0
n, Eo R
IV)
GV(D,R gid, Eo R IV) GV(D,Ar ic, Eo R
IV)
B (D,0, Eo R IV) Va (D, edium, Eo R IV)Va (D,
n
arge, Eo R
IV) Mcycle(P,250
750cc 4
, re)Mcycle(P,>750cc 4
, re)
M otorway
Frac m m m 2 km
Low speedemission
Average
conceals start/
stop congestion
And car design
dependent
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Transport: road speed and PM emission
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
700%
800%
900%
1000%
5 25 45 65 85 105 125 145
kph
Caz ({ ,| 2.0}, ~ URO IV) Caz ( , 2.0
}, ~ URO III)
Caz ( ,| 1.4}, ~ URO IV) Caz ( ,1.4 - 2.0
}, ~ URO IV)
H
V ({ ,Az ic, ~ URO III) H
V ({ ,Rigid, ~ URO IV)
us ({ ,0, ~ URO III) Van ({ ,sma } } , ~ URO IV)Van ({ ,medium, ~ URO IV) Mc c
}e ( ,| 250cc4-s, z e)
Mc c } e ( ,250-750cc4-s, z e)
Motorwa
Fr t f
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Transport: road speed and NOx emission
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
5 25 45 65 85 105 125 145
kph
Car(D,< 2.0 l, 83 351) Car(P,< 1.4 l, 91 441)Car(P,1.4
2.0 l, 91 441) Car(P,> 2.0 l, 91 441)
Car(P,> 2.0 l, E R IV) GV(D,Rigid, 88 77)
GV(D,Artic, 91 542 II) Va (D,medium, 93 59)Va (D,large, 93 59) Va (P,large, E R
III)
Va (P,
mall, E R IV)
Motorway
Frac m m m N x km
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Transport: road speeds
01020
30405060708090100
Mcycle
sars
arstowing
Lightgoo
ds
Bses/coac
hes
2a
le
3/4a
le
Articu
lated
4a
les
5+a
les
Breaingli
it
Motorways ual carriagewaySinglecariageway 30 ph roads40 ph roads
A large fraction (40-50%) of vehicles break the speed limits on all road types. This law-
breaking increases carbon and other emissions, and death and injury due to accident.
Enforcing the existing limits, and reducing them, would significantly reduce emissions and
injury.
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Transport: aviation
Aviation is a special sector because:
There is no near physical limit to growth as for land transport
It has the most rapid growth in demand of any major sector
Its emissions have particular impacts because of altitude
Aircraft are already relatively energy efficient
For these reasons, aviation is projected to become a dominant cause of global warming over the next fewdecades. The UK is a large exporter of aviation services, and fuelling this export will become perhaps themajor problem in UK energy policy. Currently there is no proven alternative to liquid fuels for aircraft.
Most aviation is international with special legal provisions, and so aviation (and shipping) can not be analysed inisolation from other countries.
Aviation is discussed in detail in reports that may be downloaded at:
http://www.sencouk.co.uk/Transport/Air/Aviation.htm
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Demand
management
Freight
Passenger
Business
Leisure
Technology
Airframe Engine
Aircraft size
OperationTraffic control
Load factor
Altitude
Speed
Route length
CONTROL
MEASURES
Aviation: control measures
Aviation emission control measures can be classed under demand management,technology and operations.
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Aviation: effects of technical and operational measures
30 %
40 %
50 %
60 %
70 %
80 %
90 %
1 0 0 %
6 0 0 6 5 0 7 0 0 7 5 0 8 0 0 8 5 0 9 0 0 9 5 0 1 0 0 0
C ruis s
(
)
F
u
lus
rassngrilm
tre
C rre tD c re a s s ig nc ruis s
Turbo p rop/p ro p
a re laces turbo
a
Im p ro ve a irf ram e
Increase load factor
Imp rove existing
turbo fa
e
gine P rop fa
Te c n l g ic a lim pr em e t
O pe ra ti na lc a e
Behavioural measures (other than reducing basic demand) such as increasing aircraft load
factor and reducing cruising speed are as important as technological improvement. Thesemeasures can be implemented faster than technological change, as the average aircraft
operating life is about 30 years.
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Aviation scenarios
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041
Dem
Busi ess susual
Operati
al
Technology
Allexcept emand
All measures
Loadfactor
Carbonemission tC)
Aviation emissions can only be stabilised if all technical and operational measures are
driven to the maximum, and the demand growth rate is cut by half. To reduce aviation
emissions by 0% would require further demand reduction.
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Transport: passenger demand by mode and vehicle type
Demand depends on complex of factors: demographics, wealth, land use patterns, employment, leisure travel.
National surface demand is limited by time and space, but aviation is not so limited by these factors.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Gpm
I t: a : la e
I t : a :Shi
at: a :Sh
i
at: a : la e
at: a : ail
at: a :
at: a : ar
at: a : cle
at: a : i e
GBR: e hBeh: P e er : L i t e
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Transport: freight demand by mode and vehicle type
The scope for load distance reduction through logistics and local production is not assessed. International freight
is estimated.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Gk
In :F :P ne
In :F e:S
N :F e:P ne
N :F e:S
N :F e:P e
N:F
e: a l
Na :F e: DV
Na :F e:T u k
GBR:TechBeh: Fre h : Loa d ance
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Transport, national: passenger mode
A shift from car to fuel efficient bus and train for commuting and longer journeys is assumed. The scope formodal shift from air to surface transport is very limited without the development of alternative long distance
transport technologies.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
%
Nat:Pa :S i
Nat:Pa :Plane
Nat:Pa :Rail
Nat:Pa : u
Nat:Pa :Car
Nat:Pa :MCycle
Nat:Pa : ike
GB : TechBeh: National : Passen er : ode
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Transport: national : freight mode
Shift from truck to rail. Currently, no assumed shift to inland and coastal shipping.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.
1
1.2
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
%
Nat Fre ane
Nat Fre ip
Nat Fre ipe
Nat Fre Rai
Nat Fre LDV
Nat Fre ruck
GBR:TechBeh: at onal : re ght: ode
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Transport: passenger vehicle load factor
Load factors of vehicles, especially aircraft, assumed to increase through logistical change.
Vehicle load capacities (passengers/vehicle; tonnes/truck) assumed unchanged.
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
%
NatPa
ike
Nat Pa
yc e
NatPa
ar
NatPa
u
NatPa
ai
NatPa
P
ane
Nat
Pa
ip
IntPa
ip
Int Pa P ane
GB : echBeh: ass enger : Load actor
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Further analysis: electric vehicles
Electric (EV) or hybrid electric/liquid fuelled (HELV) vehicles are a key option for the futurebecause liquid (and gaseous) fossil fuels emit carbon, will become more scarce and
expensive and are technically difficult to replace in transport, especially in aircraft.
Electric vehicles such as trams or trolley-buses draw energy whenever required but they are
restricted to routes with power provided by rails or overhead wires. Presently there are
no economic and practical means for providing power in a more flexible way to cars,
consequently electric cars have to store energy in batteries. The performance in terms of
the range and speed of EVs and HELVs is improving steadily such that EVs can meet
large fraction of typical car duties; the range of many current electric cars is 100-200
miles. A major difficulty with EVs is recharging them. At present, car mounted photovoltaic
collectors are too expensive and would provide inadequate energy, particularly in winter,
although they may eventually provide some of the energy required.
Because of these problems it may be envisaged that HELVs will first supplant liquid fuelled
vehicles, with an increasing fraction of electric fuelling as technologies improve.
Hydrogen is much discussed as a transport fuel, but the overall efficiency from renewableelectricity to motive power via hydrogen is perhaps 50%, whereas via a battery it might be
70%. For this reason, it is not currently included as an option. If the efficiency difference
were narrowed, and the refuelling and range problems of EVs are too constraining, then
hydrogen should be considered further.
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Transport: freight vehicle distance
Some growth in freight vehicle distance. Vehicle capacities and load factors important assumptions
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
G
.km
IntFre
P
ane_K
IntFre
ip_LB
Int Fre
ip_D
NatFre
Pipe_E
Nat
Fre
ip_D
NatFre
P
ane_K
NatFre
Rai
_E
NatFre
Rai
_D
Nat Fre ruck_LB
NatFre
ruck_D
Nat
Fre
LDV_E
Nat Fre LDV_H2
Nat Fre LDV_LB
NatFre
LDV_D
Nat Fre LDV_G
GBR: TechBeh: re ght : Veh cled stance
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Transport: passenger: fuel per passenger km
Reductions in fuel use because of technical improvement, better load factors, lower speeds, and less
congestion.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
MJfuel/pkm
Nat:Pas:Bike_SNat:Pas:MCyc_GNat:Pas:Car_GNat:Pas:Car_
Nat:Pas:Car_LPGNat:Pas:Car_LBNat:Pas:Car_H2
Nat:Pas:Car_ENat:Pas:Bus_
Nat:Pas:Bus_LBNat:Pas:Bus_CNGNat:Pas:Bus_H2Nat:Pas:Bus_ENat:Pas:Rail_
Nat:Pas:Rail_LBNat:Pas:Rail_ENat:Pas:Pla e_KNat:Pas:S ip_
I t:Pas:S ip_
I t:Pas:Pla e_KI t:Pas:Pla e_LB
GBR: TechBeh: Pass enger : uelperloa km
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Transport: passenger: delivered energy
Future passenger energy use dominated by international air travel.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PJ
IntPas
P
ane_LB
IntPas
P
ane_K
Int Pas ip_DNat
Pas
ip_D
NatPas
P
ane_K
NatPas
Rai
_E
Nat
P
asR
ai
_LB
NatPas
Rai
_D
NatPas
Bus_E
Nat Pas Bus_H2Nat Pas Bus_CNGNat
Pas
Bus_LB
NatPas
Bus_D
NatPas
ar_E
Nat Pas ar_H2
Nat Pas ar_LBNat
Pas
ar_LPG
NatPas
ar_D
NatPas
ar_G
NatPas
yc_G
NatPas
Bike_
GBR: TechBeh: Pass enger : Del ered
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Transport: freight delivered energy
Freight energy use is dominated by trucks. The potential for a further shift to rail needs investigation.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PJ
I t:Fre:Pla e_K
I t:Fre:S ip_LB
I t:Fre:S ip_
Nat:Fre:Pipe_E
Nat:Fre:S ip_
Nat:Fre:Pla e_K
Nat:Fre:Rail_E
Nat:Fre:Rail_
Nat:Fre:Truck_LB
Nat:Fre:Truck_
Nat:Fre:L V_E
Nat:Fre:L
V_H2Nat:Fre:L V_LB
Nat:Fre:L V_
Nat:Fre:L V_G
GBR: TechBeh: reight : Delivere
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End use sectors: useful energy services
Useful energy supply and services increase
Growth in all end uses except space heating
0
500
1000
1500
2000
25003000
3500
4000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PJ
oo l
AC
H
W t rH
Cooki g
H120
igh t
Pro W
El qui
MotW
GB :TechBeh: nerg : eful
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Energy conversion: efficiencies
Preliminary graph showing efficiencies of energy conversion. Efficiencies greater than one signify heat pumps.
Declining efficiencies are where the cogeneration heat fraction falls, and the electricity fraction increases
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Efficienc
MotProcH>120CH
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End use sectors: energy delivered by sector
Delivered energy decreases because of demand management and energy conversion efficiency gains.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PJ
Sea:Int
ir: Int
t erinland
Air: o
RailRoa : Freig t
Roa : a
Re i ential
Service
ot er
Agricultureig t
Met Min
C e ical
Iron and teel
GB : Te hBeh: elivere : y e tor
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End use sectors: energy delivered by fuel
Reduction in fossil fuel use through efficiency and shift to alternatives.
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PJ
H_Solar
S_Bio
L_Bio
G_Bio
S_CHP
L_CHPG_CHP
H_Pipe (DH)
E_Ele
S_Fo
L_Avi je
L_MotGaL_Ga Die
L_LiqPeG
L_Fo
G_Fo
GB : Tech ifestyle: Delivered : by fuel
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Energy supply: electricity
Options exercised:
Phase out of nuclear and coal generation
some fossil (coal, oil, gas) capacity may be retained for security
Extensive installation of CHP, mainly gas, in all sectors
Utilisation of biomass waste and biomass crops
Large scale introduction of renewable electricity
wind, solar, tidal, wave
Electricity supply in the scenarios requires more analysis of demand and supply technicalities and economics,particularly:
future technology costs, particularly of solar-electric systems such as photovoltaic
demand characteristics including load management and storage
renewable supply mix and integration
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Energy supply: electricity : generating capacity
Capacity increases because renewables (especially solar) and CHP have low capacity factors. Some fossil
capacity would perhaps be retained for back-up and security.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
GWe
S FosL FueOilG FosN NucS BioL BioG Bio
S MunRefE H roH GeotheH SolarE aveE TideE indPump E
S FosL FosG FosS
G
G :TechBeh: Electricit :Capacit :GWe
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Electricity: generation
Finite fuelled electricity-only generation replaced by renewables and CHP. Proportion of fossil back-upgeneration depends on complex of factors not analysed with SEEScen.
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PJe
S_FoL_FueOilG_FoN_Nuc
S_BioL_BioG_Bio
S_Mu ReE_HydroH_Geot eH_SolarE_WaveE_Ti eE_WiPu p_E
S_FoL_FoG_FoS_L_G_
GB : TechBeh: lectricity : Output : PJe
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Electricity: generation costs (excluding distribution)
Because of increased CHP and renewables, the fraction of capital and operation and maintenance costs
increases and the fraction of fuel costs decreases
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
/GJ
CapPerYr
O ota
FuInCost
GBR:TechBeh: Generat on n t cost
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Electricity: scenario generation costs (excluding distribution)
Relative generation costs depend critically on future fuel prices, but in these scenarios the larger demand
scenarios have higher electricity costs.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
/GJ
Base/Kyo o
Behav our
arbon15
Te hH gh
Te hBeh
GB : S narios:Generation unit cost
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Energy: primary supply
Total primary energy consumption falls, and then increases
Fraction of renewable energy increases, then falls
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PJ
H lar
H Ge he
H r
Wa e
e
ef
a
Nuclear
l
qu
Ga
GB : ec Be :Prim r
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Fuel extraction
Extraction of oil and gas tails off as reserves are depleted
Biomass extraction increases
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
P
c
S io
S Fos
L uOil
G Fos
GB :TechBeh: Fuel ex rac i n:Ou pu
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Fuel reserves
Oil and gas reserves effectively consumed
Large coal reserves available for strategic security
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
180000
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PJ
Nucear
oa
Petroeu
Natura ga
GB : echBeh: eserves
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Energy trade
Nuclear fuel imports decline; gas and oil imports increase and stabilise; some electricity export.
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
1990
1995
200
0
200
5
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
PJ
Ga
iqui
Soli
uclea
r
lec
GB : Te hBeh: Tra e
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Energy flow charts
The flow charts show basic flows in 1990 and 2050, and an animation of 1990-2050. The central part of the
charts illustrate the relative magnitude of the energy flows through the UK energy system. The top sectionshows carbon dioxide emissions at each stage. The bottom section shows energy wasted and dischargedto the environment.
Please note that the scale of these charts varies.
Observations:
Energy services:
space heating decreases
other demands increase, especially motive power and transport
Fuel supply
increase in efficiency (CHP)
increase in renewable heating, biomass and electricity
imports of gas and oil are required
electricity is exported
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UK Energy flow chart: 1990
SE CO
BR : TechBeh :
Trade xtraction uel proce ing lectricity and heat elivered ector efulenergy
nviron
ent
Wa teenergy
Trd
N
xt
G
xt
xt
olid
Nuclear
Refinery i
olid
Nuclear
ueOil
lOnly
Ga
olid
lec
i
i
Re
G
Re
er
Ind
G
Ind
Ind
Tra(nat)
Tra(int)
Mot W
H>12
H
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UK Energy flow chart: Animation 1990 to 2050
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UK Energy flow chart: 2050SENCO GBR
Beh : Y2050
Trade Extraction Fuel processing Electricity and heat Delivered Sectors Useful energy
Environment
Waste energy
Trd_G
Trd_E
Trd_L
Biomass
Wind
v
Solar
Biowaste
BiomassBiomass
proc
Refinery
L_Bio
Liq
Wind
vSolar
Waste
ElOnly
Auto
Auto_H
Gas
G_CHP
H_Solar
Elec
Liq
Biomass Food
Res_G_CHP
l r
Ser G CHP
r
InInd_G_CHP
Ind_E_
Tra(nat) L
Tra(int) L
Mot W
H>120C
H
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Environment
Often, the energy and environment debate concerns itself with routine, relatively easily quantified emissions suchas CO2, and ignores the many other impacts of energy demand and supply, even though they may asimportant economically or socially, if only in the shorter term.
There are particular problems concerning the environmental impacts of energy.
The definition and precision of calculation of many impacts are poor for technical reasons.
Future impacts depend on developments in technology, legislation and other controls.
Some impacts are routine, such as CO2 emission; others, such as a nuclear accident, are not routine and
have probabilities of occurrence and consequences that are impossible to calculate with any certainty.
Some impacts are physical; others, such as the threat of attack on a nuclear facility, are not physical but canstill have impacts.
Some impacts are not directly associated with technical energy processes. For example, in the low emissionscenarios, road traffic injuries and deaths would be reduced through measures such as less car travel andenforced speed limits. There would be further social benefits such as more equal access to transport, anddisbenefits such as less car driving.
The impacts are different in kind: gaseous, liquid, solid, radioactive, biological, visual, land take, etc. There isno objective method to weigh these against each other except through political processes.
SEEScen presently calculates: Atmospheric emissions of CO2, and of SO2, NOx, PM and CO although these are imprecise
Some other impacts such as the number of aerogenerators and the fraction of land area used for biomassproduction
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Environment: CO2 emission by scenario
There is an eventual upturn in emissions as assumed demand growth overtakes technology and behaviouraloptions.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Mt
B s /Kyo to
B hav iour
arbon15
Te hHigh
Te hBeh
GB : Scenarios: Environment :Air : CO
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Environment: particulate matter
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
kt
Fue: tFue:Pro
le:Gele:Pum
Ele: raHea:PubHea:Aut
ra(i t):Sea:I t
ra(i t):Air:Ira( at):Otherira( at):Air: ora( at): ailra( at): oad:Fra( at): oad:P
Re :ReSer:Ser
Oth:othI d:AgrI d: igI d:MetI d: heI d:Iro
GBR:Te hBeh: Air:PM10
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Economics
In SEEScen, the direct annual costs of fuel, and the annuitised costs of conversion technologies and demandmanagement are calculated. The model does not account for anything unrelated to fuels or technologies,including:
indirect costs and benefits, such as the economic savings following a shift away from cars leading to reducedhealth damage because of accidents, toxic air pollution, and the value of reduced travel time
macroeconomic issues relating to the energy trade imbalance or exposure to fluctuating international fuelprices
Such economic impacts of energy scenarios can be of greater importance than direct costs. For example, thevalue of traffic related health injury and time lost in congestion is generally much greater than the costs of
controlling noxious emissions from vehicles.
International fuel prices are critical to the relative cost effectiveness of measures. It is probable that the UK wouldfollow a low energy emission path in parallel with other countries, at least in Europe. In such an internationalscenario, finite fossil and nuclear fuel prices will be lower than in a higher demand scenario. Thus theimplementation of options affects the cost-effectiveness of those options - a circularity:
the more renewable energy deployed, the cheaper the fossil fuels leading to an increase in the relative
cost of renewables
the more the consumption of fossil and nuclear fuels, the higher the prices for those, leading to anincrease in the relative cost of fossil and nuclear energy
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International context
Fuel availability and price will depend onglobal and regional demand levels.
SEEScen was used to model the fivescenarios for the four largestenergy consumers near the UK:France, Germany, Spain and Italy.
Because the measures exercised are the
same, the primary energyconsumption of these countriesvaries in similar ways in thescenarios, although there are
differences in detail.This illustrates how regional energy
demand might vary according topolicies, and it has consequencesfor energy prices.
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Economics: fuel prices
International fuel prices are critical inputsto the economic analysis of
scenarios.Fundamentally, costs in the long term are
determined by the remainingamounts and marginal extractioncosts of the reserves of finite fossiland nuclear fuels. Prices depend oncosts and future demand-supplymarkets.
It may be argued that if the UK pursues a
low finite energy path then it is likelythat other countries will be doing thesame, at least within Europe.
The top chart shows a high demandprice projection, the bottom a lowdemand projection.
These merely illustrate possibledifferences in trends. It may that therelative prices of gas, oil and coal
will change.This requires further analysis.
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Economics: TechBeh scenario annual costs of fuel, conversion and demand management
The annuitised costs of each fuel, technology and demand management option are calculated for each of theend use and supply sectors. In the low demand scenario, the fraction of total cost due to converters
(boilers, power stations, etc.) and demand management increases as compared to fuels.
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Economics: Base scenario annual costs of fuel, conversion and demand management
In higher energy supply scenarios, the fraction of costs due to fuel increases because renewable energy andCHP constitute smaller fractions. One implication of this, in comparison with a lower demand scenario, is
that economic security is degraded because of the sensitivity to prices and availability of imported, globallytraded fuels.
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Economics: total cost by scenario
The more secure, lower impact systems for providing energy services may not have higher costs than high
demand and emission scenarios because more cost effective demand management is taken up. Also, fossil
fuel prices will be lower because European/global demand will be lower (the UK will not, or cannot actalone).
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Economics: energy trade costs
The cost of increased imports of fossil fuels is partially balanced by electricity exports.
Note that the costs of imports are positive and exports, negative.
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Economics: scenarios: energy trade total cost balance
The energy trade cost deficit increases in higher energy consumption scenarios because imports are greater and
fuel prices are higher
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Observations on scenarios: national energy
The scenarios are preliminary and could be improved with more recent data and sectoral analysis. However,
the relative magnitudes of energy flows, emissions and costs are illustrative of the main problems, and
possible solutions.
The scenarios show that:
Large reductions in carbon dioxide and other emissions are possible without utilising irreversibletechnologies with potential large scale risks - nuclear power and carbon sequestration.
Transport fuel supply is a more difficult problem than fuelling electricity supply or the stationary sectors
which have many potential fuel sources. Transport is the most difficult sector to manage, because:
demand management options are limited as compared to the stationary sector
of growth, especially in aviation limited efficiency improvement potential as efficiency is already a strong driver in freight transport
and aviation
lack of alternatives to liquid fuels, especially for aviation
The potential for the direct use of electricity as a transport fuel rather than the inefficient production anduse of secondary fuels such as biofuels or hydrogen needs more exploration
In all scenarios, under the assumption of continued growth in energy service demand, emissions increase in
the longer term as the effects of known technologies are absorbed. Behavioural options are important,especially if nascent technologies do not become technically and economically feasible. Thereforeanalysis and speculation on the following might be useful:
possible future socioeconomic changes and impact on energy service demands
long term technology development
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Observations on scenarios: economics and environment
Economics
The total cost of energy services may be less in low emission scenarios because of the cost effectivenessof demand management and efficiency as compared to supply. This assumes that in the future, as now,the UK energy system is not optimal in economic terms because of market imperfections which lead toinadequate investment in demand management and energy efficiency.
The more the application of demand management and renewable energy, the less is the UK exposed tointernational fuel price fluctuations.
Demand management and renewables reduce the UK balance of payments deficit for energy trade.
Energy use and emissions increase when presumed growth overtakes implementation of current technologyoptions. In the long term, therefore demand management, service and renewable energy technologies willrequire further implementation. A particular need is to find substitutes for liquid fuelled aircraft for longdistance transport.
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Observations on scenarios: national and international
The TechBeh scenario has a surplus of electricity; should
less be generated?
the surplus be used to substitute for fossil resources, e.g.
to make transport fuels even if the process is wasteful?
for heating and other uses not requiring electricity?
the surplus be exported as trade for other fuels?
It is not possible to develop a robust and economic UK energy strategy for the long term withoutconsideration of international developments, for a number of reasons:
the UK has transmission linkage with other countries; this is especially important for electricity ifrenewable sources in the UK meet a large fraction of total demand
the availability of fuels for import depends on global demand
there are international arrangements that constrain UK policy in terms of demand management andsupply, for example, treaties concerning international aviation and shipping
This leads to system dynamics and the international aspects of energy scenarios.
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Energy systems aspects: space and time
SEEScen has a main focus on annual flows, although it can simulate seasonal and hourly flows. Othermodels are required to analyse issues arising with short term variations in demand and supply, andwith the spatial location of demands and supplies.
Questions arising:
Can the demands be met hour by hour using the range of supplies?
What spatial issues might arise?
Some aspects of this are explored and illustrated with these models:
EleServe : Electricity system model for temporal analysis
EST Energy Space Time model
InterEnergy Energy trade model
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Electricity system: detailed considerations
Electricity demand and supply have to be continuously balanced as there is no storage in the transmissionnetwork, unlike gas. This balancing can be achieved by controlling demand and supply, and by
introducing storage on the system (pumped storage) or near the point of use: heat and electricity storage(hot water tanks, storage heaters, vehicle batteries) can be used to store surplus renewable energy whenit is available, so that the energy can later be used when needed.
The EleServe Electricity Services model has these components:
Electricity demand
disaggregated into segments across sectors and end uses
each segment with
a temporal profile
load management characteristicElectricity supply
each renewable source with own temporal profile
heat related generation with its own temporal profile
optional thermal generators characterised by energy costs at full and part load, and for starting up
Operational control
load management by moving demands if cost reduced
optional units brought on line to minimise diurnal costs
The following graphs demonstrates the role that load management can play in matching variable demands toelectricity supplied by variable renewable and CHP or cogeneration sources.
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Electricity : diurnal operation without load management
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Electricity : animated diurnal operation with load management
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Electricity : diurnal operation with load management
EleServe Scenario: Efficiency+ CHP + renewables 2025 Winter day : Su er day SE CO
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Electricity : commentary
The electricity demand-supply simulation :
shows how load management can alter the pattern of demand to better match CHP and renewableelectricity generation. The residual demand to be met by generators utilising fuels such as biomass or fossilfuels, that can alter their output, is less variable and the peak is smaller.
demonstrates the importance of demand patterns and technologies in strategies for integrating variableelectricity sources
indicates that large fractions of variable sources can be accommodated without substantial back-up
capacity
end use or other local storage could play a significant role, especially if electric vehicles are widely used as
in some of the scenarios
Further work is required on:
data defining current and future demand technologies
detailed electricity demand forecasts
the feasibility of integrated control of demand and supply technologies, including the accuracy of predictionof hourly demands and renewable supplies over time periods of a several hours or days
more refined optimisation
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Energy systems in space and time
For temporally variable demand and energy sources, what is the best balance between : local supply and long distance transmission?
demand management, variable supply, optional or back up generation and system or localstorage?
These questions can be asked over different time scales (hour by hour, by day of week, seasonal)
and spatial scales (community, national, international).
The EST and InterTrade models have been developed to illustrate the issues and indicate possiblesolutions for integrating spatially separate energy demands and sources, each with differenttemporal characteristics.
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UK energy, space and time illustrated with EST
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UK energy, space and time illustrated with EST : animated
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A wider view of the longer term future
Wealthy countries like the UK can reduce their energy demands and emissions with cost-effective
measures implemented in isolation from other counties, and in so doing improve their security.However, at some point it is more practical and cost-effective to consider how the UK can bestsolve energy and environment problems in concert with other countries.
As global fossil consumption declines because of availability, cost and the need to control climatechange, then energy systems will need to be reinforced, extended and integrated over largerspatial scales.
This would be a continuation of the historical development of energy supply that has seen thegeographical extension and integration of systems from local through to national andinternational systems.
The development and operation of these extended systems will have to be more sophisticated thancurrently. Presently, the bulk of variable demands in rich countries is met with reserves of fossiland nuclear fuels, the output of which can be changed by turning a tap. When renewableenergy constitutes a large fraction of supply, the matching of demands and supplies is a morecomplex problem both for planning and constructing a larger scale system, and in operating it.
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International electricity : demand
Further connecting the UK system to
other countries increases thebenefits of diversity, at the cost oftransmission.
The first chart shows the pattern ofmonthly demands for differentEuropean countries.
The second chart shows the normaliseddiurnal demand patterns for somecountries. Note that these are all forlocal time; time zone differenceswould shift the curves and make thedifferences larger.
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International electricity: supply; monthly hydro output
Hydro will remain the dominant renewable in Europe for some time. It has a marked seasonality in output as
shown in the chart; note that hydro output can vary significantly from year to year. Hydro embodiessome energy storage and can be used to balance demand and supply; to a degree determined bysystem design and other factors such as environment.
N rmalisedhydr utput
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Electricity trade
An extensive continentalgrid already exists
The diversity of demandand supply variationsincreases acrossgeographical regions
What is the best balancebetween local and remotesupply?
InterEnergy model
Trade of energy over linksof finite capacity
Time varying demands and
supply
Minimise avoidable
marginal cost
Marginal cost curves forsupply generated by modelsuch as EleServe
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InterEnergy animated trade
Animation shows
programme seekingminimum cost for oneperiod (hour)
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Europe and western Asia large point sources
The environmental impact of energy is a global issue: what is the best strategy for reducingemissions within a larger region?
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World
There are global patterns in demands and renewable supplies:
Regular diurnal and seasonal variations in demands, some climate dependent
Regular diurnal and seasonal incomes of solar energy Predictable tidal energy income
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World: a global electricity transmission grid?
Should transmission be global to achieve an optimum balance between supply, transmission and storage?
Which investments are most cost efficient in reducing GHG emission? Should the UK invest in photovoltaic
systems in Africa, rather than the UK? This could be done through the Clean Development Mechanism
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Security: preliminary generalities 1
Energy security can be defined as the maintenance of safe, economic energy services for social wellbeing andeconomic development, without excessive environmental degradation.
A hierarchy of importance for energy services can be constructed:
Core services which it is immediately dangerous to interrupt
food supply
domestic space heating, lighting
emergency services; health, fire, police
Intermediate importance. Provision of social services and short-lived essential commodities
owerimportance. Long-lived and inessential commodities
Part of security planning is for these energy services to degrade gracefully to the core.
The various energy supply sources and technologies pose different kinds of insecurity:
renewable sources are, to a degree, variable and/or unpredictable, except for biomass
finite fossil and nuclear fuels suffer volatile increases in prices and ultimate unavailability
some technologies present potentially large risks or irreversibility
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Security : preliminary generalities 2
Supply security over different time scales
Gross availability of supply over future years. The main security is to reduce dependence on the
imports of gas, oil and nuclear fuels and electricity through demand management and the development ofrenewable energy.
Meeting seasonal and diurnal variations. This mainly causes difficulty with electricity, gas, andrenewables except for biomass. Demand management reduces the seasonal variation in demand andthence the supply capacity problem for finite fuels and electricity. Storage and geographical extension of thesystem alleviates the problem.
Security of economic supply. Demand management reduces the costs of supply.
The gross quantities of fuel imports are less, and therefore the marginal and average prices
The reduced variations in demand bring reduced peak demands needs and therefore lower capacitycosts and utilisation of the marginal high cost supplies
The greater the fraction of renewable supply, the less the impact of imported fossil or nuclear fuel price rise
A diverse mix of safe supplies each with small unit size will reduce the risks of a generic technology failure
Security from technology failure or attack. In the UK, the main risk is nuclear power.
Security from irreversible technology risk. In the UK, nuclear power and carbon sequestration
Environment impacts. All energy sources and technologies have impacts, but the main concern here are longterm, effectively irreversible, regional and global impacts. The greater the use of demand management andrenewable energy, the less fossil and nuclear, the less such large impacts.
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Electricity security
Demand management will reduce generation and peak capacity requirements as it :
reduces total demand
reduces the seasonal variation in demand, and thence maximum capacity requirements
It has been illustrated how load management might contribute to the matching of demand with variable supply.This can be further extended with storage, control and interruptible demand.
During the transition to CHP and renewable electricity, supply security measures could be exercised:
etain some fossil fuel stations as reserves. Currently in the UK, there are these capacities:
Coal 19 GW large domestic coal reserve
Oil 4.5 GW oil held in strategic reserves
Dual fired 5. GW
Gas 25 GW gas availability depends on other gas demands
Utilisation, if necessary of some end use sector generation. Currently in excess of 7 GW, but these plantsare less flexible because they are tied to end use production, services and emergency back-up
The building of new flexible plant such as gas turbines if large stations are not suitable
Electricity trade with other countries can be used for balancing. There are geographical differences in the hourlyvariations of demands and renewable supply because of time zones, weather, etc. The strengthening of the
link between France and the UK, and creation of links with other countries would enhance this option.
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Gas and oil security
The measures to improve oil and gas security are basically the same, diversify fuel sources and
store fuels:
Diversify supply sources
Extension of the gas transmission system
Develop LNG imports
Increase storage
Enlarge long term gas storage in depleted gas fields Increase strategic 90 day oil reserve as required by IEA