unravelling complexity

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Professor Adam Graycar [email protected] Unravelling Complexity 11 October, 2011

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Unravelling Complexity. 11 October, 2011. Policy is what government choose to do or not do. Philosophy Product Process Framework for action. Government. Sets and implements policies (initiates and responds) Manages competing interests Manages risk and uncertainty - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Unravelling  Complexity

Professor Adam [email protected]

Unravelling Complexity

11 October, 2011

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2

Policy is what government choose to do or not do

• Philosophy• Product• Process• Framework for action

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

Page 3: Unravelling  Complexity

Government

• Sets and implements policies (initiates and responds)

• Manages competing interests• Manages risk and uncertainty• Seeks to create public value

3publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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Mark Moore

• Rule setter• Service provider• Social safety net• Creator of public value

Creating Public Value, Harvard University Press 1995

4publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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Mark Moore’s Strategic Triangle

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

Legitimacy & Support

Operational Capabilities Public Value

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Policy combines government

• Vision• Actions• Outcomes

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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[email protected] 7

• Vision and values • Evidence and analysis • Understanding of stakeholders • Delivery capabilities

In order to get there:

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au

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Policy Cycle (Reference: Althaus, Bridgman, Davis 2007)

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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• Problems we know the answer to

• Problems we don’t know the answer to

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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When does a private problem become a public problem?

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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Who owns the problem?

Who owns the solution?

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected] 11

Page 12: Unravelling  Complexity

[email protected]

Capacity:• Extractive• Distributive• Regulatory

Willingness:tempered by • Ideology• Resources• Response to

crisis• Alternative

deliverers12publicpolicy.anu.edu.au

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[email protected] 13

• Information

• Regulate/mandate

• Subsidise

• Purchase

• Provide World Bank

Hierarchy of Government Interventions?

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au

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• Agreement on a problem• Prospect for a solution• How important, how urgent• Initiating/ responding?

• Opportunity/ old sore

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

Page 15: Unravelling  Complexity

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

Health

Education & Training

Work Incentives

65+-0

Develop good habits

(eg diet, exercise)

Childcare Out of school care

Literacy & numeracy skills

Maintain good habits

Transition into w

orking lifeEncourage & support work

Early work

experience

Balance work & study

Supporting re-entryBalance work & family

Maintain good health

Support ongoing participation

Balance work & leisure

Manage health

Maintain & refresh skill sets

Healthy Living

Lifelong Learning

Encouraging & Supporting Work

Early childhood development

Life Cycle

Page 16: Unravelling  Complexity

Bureaucrats and Expertise

• Scientific expertise• Policy expertise• Process expertise• Instrument expertise

16publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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• Is this a function for government, the market, individuals or families, or charitable activity?

• If a mixture, are the other players meeting their share (e.g. through user charges)?

• Is this the responsibility of the Commonwealth, or of the states or local government?

• Is there serious risk of government failure if it took on the responsibility?

Role of government?

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

Page 18: Unravelling  Complexity

[email protected] 18

• Facilitating Role• Allocation Function• Distribution Function• Stabilisation Function

The role of government in market economies

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au

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[email protected] 19

The role of government in market economies (cont)

Facilitating Role• Ensuring conditions for competitive markets to

operate• Providing the legal structure for contractual

arrangements and exchanges

Allocation Function• Addressing market failures• Providing ‘public goods’

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au

Page 20: Unravelling  Complexity

[email protected] 20

Distribution Function• Reflecting social values including acceptable distribution

of income and wealth

Stabilisation Function• Policies for full employment, price stability and desirable

economic growth

• Reflecting the public, as distinct from a private, view of the value of the future

The role of government in market economies (cont)

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au

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policy workers understand • Boundaries• Complexity• Accountability

21publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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For whom is it a problem?• For program clients (or potential clients)?• For other program stakeholders?• For taxpayers?• For the public more generally?• For those fundamentally opposed to the

endorsed policy?• Where is ‘the public interest’?

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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• Urgent/ important• Who sees problem - who cares?• Prospects for a solution• Initiating/ responding• Who’s in charge• What’s routine, what’s not• Does problem match service system

Key points in scoping problems

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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• Problems and service systems do not match

• Mismatch of problems and opportunity for solutions

24publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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Lesson

Break each problem into small and manageable conceptual and implementable parts, but

Keep an eye on the big picture!

25publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

Page 26: Unravelling  Complexity

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected] 26

Push the frontier

Keep things running

Make our ideas work

Strategic policy

Operational policy

Responsive policy

Scott/Baehler’s Policy Work Triangle

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Media story of unmet need

Economic crisis

Adverse ANAO Report

Environmental disaster

Media story re poor treatment

of program client

etc

Ongoing policy research, statistics, review

Policy Development in thereal World

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]

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The science of ‘muddling through’Must start from where you areAgreeing on what to do is often easier than agreeing on

the reasonsIncremental change has less risk and is easy to adjustEven radical change usually requires a series of stepsBUTIncrementalism or inertia?Risk of ad hoc changes, lost opportunities etc

Lindblom /Dror debate from 1959 through 1960s

publicpolicy.anu.edu.au [email protected]