WEATHER WEATHER MODIFICATIONMODIFICATION

An Upper Basin Perspective An Upper Basin Perspective On Winter Cloud SeedingOn Winter Cloud Seeding

BACKGROUNDBACKGROUNDColorado River Basin Colorado River Basin Growth and Water Growth and Water DemandDemand

Population IncreasePopulation Increase Current Level of DevelopmentCurrent Level of Development DroughtDrought Uncertain HydrologyUncertain Hydrology

Basin States Growth ProjectionsBasin States Growth Projections Population in 1000’sPopulation in 1000’s

statestate 20052005 20252025ArizonaArizona 52305230 64126412CaliforniaCalifornia 34,44134,441 49,28549,285NevadaNevada 20702070 26122612TotalTotal 41,74141,741 58,00958,00939% increase – 16 million people39% increase – 16 million people

Basin States Growth ProjectionBasin States Growth Projection

statestate 20052005 20252025ColoradoColorado 44684468 51885188New MexicoNew Mexico 20162016 26122612UtahUtah 24772477 34873487WyomingWyoming 559559 702702 totaltotal 95209520 11,98911,98926% increase – 2 1/2 Million people26% increase – 2 1/2 Million people

Projected Upper Basin Water Use

4600

4800

5000

5200

5400

5600

5800

6000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

water year

dep

leti

on

s x

1000

ac-f

t

Series1

Lower Basin UsesLower Basin Uses

Arizona, California and Nevada using Arizona, California and Nevada using nearly 100% of their apportionmentnearly 100% of their apportionment

Lake Mead Inflow (normal) 9.1MAFLake Mead Inflow (normal) 9.1MAF Lake Mead Outflow+ Evap 10MAFLake Mead Outflow+ Evap 10MAF Declining Lake Mead StorageDeclining Lake Mead Storage Current Uses May Exceed InflowCurrent Uses May Exceed Inflow

THE DROUGHTTHE DROUGHT

5 5 years of extreme drought (2000-years of extreme drought (2000-2004)2004)

Unregulated inflows 62,59,25,51,49 %Unregulated inflows 62,59,25,51,49 % Powell fell to 33% capacity; 145 ft< Powell fell to 33% capacity; 145 ft<

full full 2005 - 105% of ave. Powell + 31 feet2005 - 105% of ave. Powell + 31 feet 2006 – 73% of ave.2006 – 73% of ave. Is the drought over??? Is the drought over???

UNCERTAINTY OF UNCERTAINTY OF FUTURE NATURAL FUTURE NATURAL FLOWFLOW

Tree Ring Hydrology Predicts Tree Ring Hydrology Predicts More Significant DroughtsMore Significant Droughts

Climate Change – Warming could Climate Change – Warming could reduce the natural flowreduce the natural flow

Basin States InitiativeBasin States Initiative

Shortage planShortage plan Coordinated reservoir operationsCoordinated reservoir operations EfficiencyEfficiency ConservationConservation AugmentationAugmentation

– Weather modificationWeather modification

THE NEED FOR THE NEED FOR AUGMENTATIONAUGMENTATION Shortage PlanShortage Plan Coordinated Reservoir OperationsCoordinated Reservoir Operations EfficiencyEfficiency ConservationConservation Augmentation – every alternativeAugmentation – every alternative

– Weather ModificationWeather Modification

Upper Colorado River Upper Colorado River Commission StudyCommission Study Potential Use of Winter Cloud Potential Use of Winter Cloud

Seeding to Augment the Flow of Seeding to Augment the Flow of the Colorado Riverthe Colorado River

North American Weather North American Weather Consultants in Sandy UtahConsultants in Sandy Utah

Don Griffith - Meteorologist Don Griffith - Meteorologist

Recent seeding Recent seeding programsprograms

Identification of Cloud Identification of Cloud Seeding PotentialSeeding Potential

Existing Areas – to be enhanced Existing Areas – to be enhanced and extendedand extended

New Potential Areas To Be New Potential Areas To Be SeededSeeded

Previous Cloud Previous Cloud Seeding Studies Seeding Studies NameName datedate water water

yieldyield– BORBOR 68 68 1.87maf1.87maf– Stanford Res In 72Stanford Res In 72 1.15maf1.15maf– North Am Wea 73North Am Wea 73 1.31maf1.31maf

Study ConclusionsStudy Conclusions

Range of expected increase in Range of expected increase in snowpack 5%-15%snowpack 5%-15%

Increase in flow from existing Increase in flow from existing seeded areas @10% = 575,000 seeded areas @10% = 575,000 ac-ft/yrac-ft/yr

Increase in flow from new seeded Increase in flow from new seeded areas @ 10% = 650,000 ac-ft/yrareas @ 10% = 650,000 ac-ft/yr

Total increase @ 10% 1.4 Maf/yrTotal increase @ 10% 1.4 Maf/yr

STUDY CONCLUSIONS STUDY CONCLUSIONS CONT.CONT.

Estimated cost for new programs Estimated cost for new programs – $4.8 million– $4.8 million

Estimated upgrades to existing Estimated upgrades to existing programs - $2.1 millionprograms - $2.1 million

Total cost - $7millionTotal cost - $7million Cost per acre foot - $5Cost per acre foot - $5

RECOMMENDATIONSRECOMMENDATIONS

Just Do ItJust Do It