Æther Analytics Weekly Technical Conspectus publ ish date : 4/25/2014

Author : Alex Bernal, CMT

alex@aetheranalytics.com

805.252.7161

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Report Details

Charts : Only markets that have critical trade setups or existing trades will be included.

Publishing schedule : Weekly, delivered Sunday evening

If any instrument was not covered in this weeks letter but you would still like a technical synopsis

Please feel free to skype me at alexbernal0 or email alex@aetheranalytics. Com

User Guide Download Link —> http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf

Table of Contents

Section 1 : Quick Table Summary

Quick Glance Table

Current Trade Setups

Section 2 : Currencies

AUDCAD

AUDJPY

AUDNZD

AUDUSD

EURAUD

EURCAD

EURGBP

EURJPY

EURNZD

EURTRY

EURUSD

GBPAUD

GBPCAD

GBPJPY

GBPNZD

HKDJPY

NZDJPY

NZDUSD

USDCAD

USDHKD

USDJPY

USDMXN

USDSGD

USDTRY

Section 3 : Energy Complex

WTI Crude

Brent Crude

Section 4 : Financials

10 Year T Note

30 Year T Bond

Ultra Bond

Section 5 : Indices

SP 500

Nasdaq 100

Russell 2000

DJIA

VIX VXX VXZ

Nikkei

Shanghai

Heng Seng

Jakarta

Section 6 : Metals

Gold

Silver

Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level

Recommended Entry

Price

Current Stops Targets Quick Note Time Frame

AUDCAD Sell stop to entry 1.01 1/2 @ 1.04, 1/2 @ 1.05 0.99 & 0.96 Bearish butterfly pattern. Possible wave 3 of 5 so I would suggest 3/4 of normal position size if traded. Daily &

Weekly

AUDJPY Entry 95.00 Triggered 1/2 @ 97.14 , 1/2 @ 97.41 (1) 93-92, (2) 89 -87 Trade is Live. Daily

AUDNZD Fractals Exist but pattern rank is not high enough for trade suggestions.

AUDUSD Entry 0.935 Triggered 1/2 @ 0.947, 1/2 @ 0.94 91 & 88 Trade is Live Daily

EURAUD Entry 1.488 Triggered 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.5948 minimum Trade is Live Weekly

EURCAD Possible Bearish Reciprocal AB = CD

EURGBP Possible Three Drives Reversal Pattern

EURJPY Clearly tracing out a corrective symmetrical triangle pattern. Breakout targets (150 or 134) long term

EURNZD Buy Stop Triggered 1.605 1/2 @ 1.58, 1/2 @ 1.576 1.64 & 1.70 Trade is live. Daily

EURTRY ABC corrective type structure. Slight upside bias. No trade suggestions currently

EURUSD Sell stop entry 1.367 1/2 @ 1.415, 1/2 @ 1.424 1.24 Large Scale primary Gartley reversal pattern identified. Weekly scale Trade PRZ not Met yet. Weekly

GBPAUD Small scale bullish crab reversal

GBPCAD No tradable patterns. Upside bias.

GBPJPY No tradable patterns. Downside bias

GBPNZD Entry Triggered 1.953 1/2 @ 1.92 1/2 @ 1.915 2.00—2.03, LT 2.10 Trade is Live Daily

HKDJPY No tradable patterns. No bias

NZDJPY Sell stop entry 86.00 1/2 @ 92.98, 1/2 @ 93.99 78 & 70 High ranking symmetry 5 wave EW pattern with Bearish Harmonic within Wave 4 and 5. Great trade setup Weekly

NZDUSD Entry triggered 0.864 1/2 @ 0.88. 1/2 @ 0.87 0.876 & 0.86 Trade is Live Daily

USDCAD Possible bearish crab

USDHKD No tradable patterns. Downside bias

Symbol Current Trade or Setup *Symbol is bold if trade is at a critical level

Recommended En-

try Price

Current Stop Targets Quick Note Time Frame

USDJPY No tradable patterns.

USDMXN Potential Bullish Gartley, Pattern rank is too low to suggest trade.

USDSGD Potential Bullish Bat, PRZ Not Reached Yet

USDTRY No tradable patterns.

WTI CRUDE Entry Triggered 102.58 1/2 @ 105.21, 1/2 @ 104.00 99 & 94 Trade is Live Daily

BRENT CRUDE Very complex pattern, no trade suggested.

GOLD Weekly Possible bullish crown pattern.

SILVER Buy stop entry 20.00 1/2 @ 18.51, 1/2 @ 18.90 22 & 24 Possible Bullish Bat, PRZ reached. Looking for a move through 20 to trigger buy stop to entry Daily

10 YEAR NOTE Bullish Bat Reversal confirmed, Minor Bearish cypher caused reversal. No trade Recommended

30 YEAR BOND Buy stop entry 135.16 131.16 142.16 Reverse Head and Shoulders breaking out, Small long trade suggested Weekly

SP500 No tradable patterns.

NASDAQ 100 No tradable patterns

RUSSELL 2000 Possible Bullish Bat. Confirmed reversal. No Trade Recommended

DJIA No tradable patterns.

VIX VXX VXZ No tradable patterns.

NIKKEI No tradable patterns. Downside bias

SHANG HAI INDEX Sell stop entry 2185 1/2 @ 2225, 1/2 @ 2201 1980 Trade is Live Daily

HENG SENG No tradable patterns. No bias

JAKARTA Sell stop entry 4704 1/2 @ 4151, 1/2 @ 5209 4000 ENTRY WAS NOT TRIGGERED YET. TRADE IS LIVE

BOMBAY SENSEX No tradable patterns. Upside bias

Forex

AUDCAD - Daily — Extended Butterfly setting up here. Clear impulse wave up from January low. One could easily fit this wave structure as a possible wave 3 of 5 up secondary

wave. I believe its still worth considering for a harmonic trade setup. We have a nice price / momentum divergence on the last up wave. Suggested sell stop to entry level is 1.016.

Stop levels if triggered would be 1.0491 for 1/2 and 10452 for the remaining 1/2. Possible targets are .99 and .96.

AUDCAD - Weekly— On the weekly scale the pattern is even more convincing for a reversal here. We have a really nice ABC retracement pattern within the Gartley pattern.

AUDCAD has been testing the upper volatility boundary. A wave C target possibility is 0.92 to 0.88. We suggest using the daily chart for execution.

AUDJPY - Trade was triggered on 4/15. Stops loss orders are live. Clear corrective type wave structure from A to D. X is very impulsive, which should contribute to a well behaved

reversal here. .Sell stops to entry at 95, with stop loss levels at 97.15 for 1/2 the position and 96.41 for one half the position are calculated. Targets of 93 and 89.

AUDNZD - Smaller scale harmonic repeating fractal. Complex flat corrective EW structure. If AUD weakens across the currency matrix this could be a nice reversal.

No Trade suggestion because pattern rank is too low.

AUDUSD- Entry was triggered at 0.9350 with targets of 0.91 and 0.88. suggested stops are now at 0.953 & 0.947

EURAUD - Buy stop entry triggered at 1.488 still Very nice AB = CD wave setting up here at .618% of the previous impulse wave. Clearly a nice area to get long with

the prevailing trend. Current stops 1/2 @ 1.436, 1/2 @ 1.424. Minimum expected target is 1.59

EURCAD—Possible bearish reciprocal AB = CD. No trade suggested.

EURGBP—Possible Minor wave three drive reversal pattern

EURJPY—Corrective Symmetrical triangle. Slight upside bias despite the double top underneath a major top formation.

EURNZD—Buy stop to entry was triggered 4/11/2014, stops are now at 1.578 for 1/2 the position and 1.572 for 1/2. Preceding structure lacks the traits of a 5 wave im-

pulse or extension (blow off) at X so we are less confident in this particular trade.

EURUSD— Weekly scale corrective EW pattern suggests that the current up move from the 2012 low could be at a critical reversal juncture. The Gartley PRZ of 1.401

has not been tested yet but we think this pattern is of high enough rank to merit early short positions for aggressive traders. No formal trade is suggested yet until the

PRZ is reached for conservative traders. But if the PRZ gets hit a sell stop to entry at 1.367 is what we calculate. Stops at 1.424 and 1.415 would be used if filled. Poten-

tial downside targets could be 1.24 or new lows long term.

GBPAUD— Small scale crab caught a reversal here. No trade recommended due to low structure rating but suggested stops are shown for those whom want to take

the risk.

GBPCAD— Example of a successful Gartley pattern.

GBPJPY— Potential Fractal completion levels

GBPNZD— Buy stop to entry was triggered at 1.953. Current Stops at 1.92 and 1.91 Measured move targets at minimum at 2.00 and we suggest taking off 3/4 of the

total position if this is reached since the target 2 is beyond what we see feasible in the next move.

NZDJPY— Very high ranking pattern symmetry. Clearly a 5 wave EW impulse with a “Bat-Crab” in between wave 3 and 5. When we get a high ranking Ew pattern

that also has a Harmonic relationship in the 3—5 wave termination points it’s a very high conviction trade setup. We recommend 200% normal position size for ag-

gressive traders. Sell stop to entry at 86.00, with stops at 92.98 & 93.99 respectively. Minimum expected targets are 78 and 70.

NZDUSD— Sitting on nice profits here. Sell stop to entry was triggered on 4/11/2014 at 0.8635. Stops are now at 0.876 and 0.86 Potential targets include 0.8472 and

0.8150

USDCAD— potential bearish 5-0 pattern

USDMXN— bullish Gartley pattern developing nicely

USDSGD— potential bullish Bat, PRZ not yet reached

Commodities

WTI Crude Oil— Trade is Live! High pattern rank bearish Gartley pattern identified. Sell stop entry triggered @ 102.58, current stops at 105.21 & 104.00 respectively. Tar-

get 1 almost complete @ 99 .

Gold— Daily Fractals

Gold— Weekly Possible bullish Crown

Silver— Nice Bullish Bat setting up here . Suggested Buy stop entry 20.00 with stops at 1/2 @ 18.51, 1/2 @ 18.90 with Targets at 22 & 24.

US Ten Year Treasury Note—Bullish bat in early April reversed nicely but caught a bearish cypher in a minor wave. Looks like a potential wave 5 down move below

recent lows

US 30 Year Treasury Bond—Weekly Reverse Head and Shoulders bullish breakout. Tested neck line and failed. Large primary butterfly held support and we are now

seeing a bottom structure reversal. Small buy stop to entry at 135.16 is recommended with stops at 131.16, possible target measured move is 143.

Indices

SHANG HAI INDEX— Amongst the very complex structure here we have found a nice minor wave Bearish Bat pattern. The Sell stop to entry zone we suggest is 2185

with stops at 1/2 @ 2261, 1/2 @ 2286 Potential Targets are minimum at 1980. Trade is Live and aggressive traders can enter now. Conservative traders wait for anoth-

er push through 2185.

Jakarta Index—Update : ENTRY Suggestion Not triggered yet. High ranking bearish Gartley pattern on the weekly scale. There is also nice symmetry inside the X and

C legs. This indicates there is some well behaved wave energy occurring in this market and should be high conviction trade. We recommend %150 bigger position

size than normal.

Shanghai Index—Update : Current stops revised to 2225 for 1/2 & 2201 for 1/2. Target 1 almost realized

Symbol Entry Date Entry price Exit Date Exit Price Points or Pips P/L Notes

EURNZD 4/11/2014 Buy Stop entry triggered 1.605 Stops at 1/2 @ 1.58, 1/2 @ 1.576 currently

NZDUSD 4/11/2014 Sell stop entry triggered 0.8635 Stops currently at 1/2 @ 0.88. 1/2 @ 0.885

AUDJPY 4/15/2014 Sell Stop entry triggered 95.00 Stop currently : 1/2 @ 97.14 & 1.2 @ 97.41

AUDUSD 4/17/2014 Sell Stop entry triggered 0.935 Stops currently : 1/2 @ 0.947 & 1/2 @ 0.94

NZDUSD 4/15/2014 Sell stop entry triggered 0.863 Stops currently : 1/2 @ 0.88 & 1/2 @ 0.87

EURAUD 4/23/2014 Buy stop entry triggered 1.488 Stops currently : 1/2 @ 1.436 & 1.2 @ 1.424

GBPNZD 4/16/2014 Buy stop entry triggered 1.953 Stops currently : 1/2 @ 1.92 & 1/2 @ 1.915

WTI Crude 4/22/2014 Sell stop entry triggered 102.58 Stops currently: 1/2 @ 105.21 & 1/2 @ 104

Shanghai 4/22/2014 Sell stop entry triggered 2185 Stops currently : 1/2 @ 2225 & 1/2 @ 2201

Trade Log

Appendix

Methodology & Strategy

Harmonic— “any component of a periodic oscillation whose frequency is and integral multiple of the fundamental frequency.”

“The periods of neighboring waves in price action tend to be related by the small whole number.” - J.M. Hurst

Our aim with this report is to only focus on identifying the best possible trading patterns that are occurring in any given market. We utilize a variety of algorithms to find specific

geometric ratio wave patterns that have favorable risk to reward projected movements. Most of our trades are harmonic patterns and ideal symmetry elliott waves in the tradition

of H.M. Gartley, Larry Pesavento, Ross Beck, Scott Carney, R.N. Elliot, Ian Copsey & Bryce Gilmore. We blend all the best nuances that we have studied and thoroughly tested from

each of the noted analysts and have also developed some proprietary tools of our own for trade qualification, entry and management. In terms of Elliot Wave theory we analyze

waves in isolation for our primary trading time periods (daily & weekly). We don’t believe in the subjective nature of manually counting elliott waves but rather only focusing on 5

and 3 wave patterns that have perfect symmetry in regards to time and price. In essence we focus only on waves we recognize to have high probability fractal structures.

Meaning only if specific geometric symmetry is identified we then investigate for a trade entry point. When the market is creating wave fractals that are not amongst our high

probability pattern repertoire no trade is taken or forecasted.

Common Newsletter Nomenclature

Pattern Rank—Our proprietary measurement system ranks patterns based on many variables within the internal structure as well as the macro technical environment (longer term

waves & trend). We will highlight these patterns but if the rank is too low we will not recommend a trade.

PRZ—Potential Reversal Zone, is also defined as our clearly defined level that a pattern must reach / test at least once in order to qualify as a harmonic pattern

Pattern Names—BAT, BUTTERFLY, GARTLEY, GARFLY, CYPHER, SHARK, ALT– BAT, CRAB, DEEP CRAB— These labels refer to specific harmonic 5 point fractal structures that appear in

the markets. Please refer to the USER GUIDE here —> http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf or full specifics and details for each pattern

Detrended Oscillator—One of the only 2 indicators we will refer to in our charts is the Detrended Oscillator this is a proprietary calculation and is very similar to RVALUE indicator laid

out by Mark W. Helweg & David C. Stendahl in there book Dynamic Trading Indicators. We have found this to be a great tool in analyzing the over extending to the up and

downside of a markets “normal” behavior. It is also very useful for finding divergence point between price and momentum.

Aethex Indicator— Is another proprietary calculation alike to the commonly used Momentum Indicator. We have formulated a smoothing function that allows us to see a markets

momentum clearer and with less noise. This can be used for entry signals as well.

Appendix

User Guide Download Link —> http://aetheranalytics.com/images/AetherConspectusUserGuide.pdf

Trade Management

We primarily recommend trades that have a minimum of 3 to 1 risk reward ratio. Initial risk (stop loss) levels we often utilize are (ATR 14, 1.618), (ATR 21, 1.272), (ATR 14, 2.5) (ATR 21,

3.0) from the entry price. Then a trailing stop from the current price is used with the ATR measures previously outlined. Entry technique is the only somewhat subject process in our

trading methodology. Users should always be aware that if a trade risk to reward ratio is less than 3:1 then the entry point, risk point or minimum targets need to be revised. We

always show 2 potential target areas for each trade. Once Target 1 has been reached we recommend at a minimum putting the trade stop loss at break even. Typically we take

1/2 the position off at Target 1 and trail stops until target 2 is reached or we get stopped out.

Position Sizing

There are many different ways we suggest utilizing position sizing for your portfolio. For the purpose of this newsletter we will simply suggest our confidence rating in the context of

each trade. When we mention “Normal” position size this is size that you have determined to be most optimal position size for your specific risk tolerance and trade management

style. We will suggest 1/2 (50%) normal or 3/4 (75%) normal for trades we have slightly less confidence in & 6/4 (150%) or 8/4 (200%) for trades we have more confidence in. This is

only a suggestion and should only be considered as opinion or commentary from us for each trade. We never ever recommend “betting the farm” or “going all in” in any trade

because it surely leads to ruin. One of our favorite Portfolio position sizing formulas that we recommend is the following:

Percent Volatility Sizing -{ Position Size = (CE * %PE) / SV }- Where CE is the current account equity (NAV of portfolio, %PE is percentage of portfolio equity to risk per trade

(2%, 3% and 4% are recommended), SV is the stocks 14 day ATR

Contact

alex@whentotrade.com

+1.805.252.7161

Author Bio

Alex Bernal, CMT Alex Bernal is a Chartered Market Technician with many years of industry experience in the equity, commodity, currency, interest rate and derivatives markets. Alex

also holds a degree in Economics from the University of Southern California. Alex started his career at the Beverly Hills branch of Bear Stearns & Co. in the wealth

management division. Then in 2007 he moved over to M&N Trading, LLC. where he joined the prop trading desk where he specialized in statistical arbitrage in areas

such as global yield curve spreads and STIR futures. Here he was mentored by Veteran Trader, Anthony Lazzara, who was once the largest 5 year treasuries floor

trader at the Chicago Board of Trade and executed as much as $100 billion in interest rate futures contracts annually. Alex founded Aether Analytics in 2009 with

the intent on providing premier technical analysis research to his clients with a focus only on the methods that have been proven to produce quantifiable edge

through he scientific research process. Aether Analytics deploys an approach that emphasizes on the objective not the subjective and aims to reveal the

repeating market fractal patterns that traders or portfolio manager can utilized to manage risk or speculate for profit.

Alex has also been featured on many prominent news & financial blog networks such as CNBC, Bloomberg, CBOE TV, Fxstreet.com, Seeitmarket.com,

Benzinga.com, MTA.org, Yorba Media Radio & First Business News Network.

Contact

alex@aetheranalytics.com

+1.805.252.7161

Skype : alexbernal0