Weekly Weather BriefingWeekly Weather Briefing08/25/201108/25/2011

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Keith StellmanKeith StellmanWarning Coordination MeteorologistWarning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Overview

Today and FridayToday and Friday Triple Digit Temps Continue Across the AreaTriple Digit Temps Continue Across the Area Heat Advisory continues for most of the area Heat Advisory continues for most of the area

Today Today WeekendWeekend

More HeatMore Heat Slight Chance precipitationSlight Chance precipitation

Monday through WednesdayMonday through Wednesday High pressure ridge shifts…but still influencingHigh pressure ridge shifts…but still influencing Near Triple Digit Temps ContinueNear Triple Digit Temps Continue Dry ConditionsDry Conditions

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

CurrentlyCurrently

H

Radar Series OvernightRadar Series Overnight3 AM 448AM

548AM 754AM

Rainfall EstimatesRainfall EstimatesLast 24 hours ending 7 Last 24 hours ending 7

AMAM

TemperaturesTemperaturesThursday Thursday FridayFriday

Weather Pattern (Fri – Weather Pattern (Fri – Sat)Sat)Friday AM

H Saturday PM

H

Irene

• Ridge remains west of the region

• Irene moves up East Coast

Weather Pattern Change Weather Pattern Change (Mon – Wed)(Mon – Wed)Monday PM

H Tues PM

H

Irene

• Ridge Begins to Shift East

• Irene moves up East Coast

• Sends front into Gulf

Weather Pattern – Friday Weather Pattern – Friday Sept 2Sept 2

Upper Ridge Upper Ridge shifts eastshifts east

Opening up Opening up tropics to tropics to western Gulf western Gulf (If anything (If anything exists).exists).

Models hinting Models hinting at a wave in at a wave in southern Gulfsouthern Gulf

H

Precip Totals for the Precip Totals for the WeekendWeekend

Very Little Very Little RainfallRainfall

Diurnally Diurnally Driven Driven Showers and Showers and Tstms … Tstms … primarily primarily Thursday Thursday (Today)(Today)

TropicsTropics

Irene TD 10

Nothing short term affecting western Gulf – through 5 days

Record Heat InfoRecord Heat Info

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought

Fire Danger Persist

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought

Much of Much of Northwest and Northwest and North-central North-central Louisiana Louisiana remains under remains under D3D3-D4-D4 drought drought conditions.conditions.

Improvements Improvements in South LAin South LA

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought

ALLALL of East of East Texas Texas along/south of along/south of I-20 under I-20 under D3D3--D4D4 drought drought conditions.conditions.

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought Much of Much of

SouthWest SouthWest Arkansas Arkansas under under D3D3-D4-D4 drought drought conditions.conditions.

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought

Fire Danger Persist

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought

Cedar Grove and Oil City Fires

Courtesy KSLA

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought

Bowie County Fires

Courtesy KSLA

Are there more 100 degree Are there more 100 degree days now?days now?

Are there more 100 degree Are there more 100 degree days now?days now?

Current Precip Current Precip DeparturesDepartures

Shreveport -Shreveport -25.38” over last 25.38” over last 18 Months18 Months Last 11 of 12 Last 11 of 12

months have been months have been below normalbelow normal

Lufkin -18.40” Lufkin -18.40” over last 12 over last 12 monthsmonths

Tyler -28.44” Tyler -28.44” over last 18 over last 18 monthsmonths

What to What to ExpectExpect La Nina Watch La Nina Watch

issued for this issued for this WinterWinter

IfIf La Nina returns, La Nina returns, Drier than normal Drier than normal

winterwinter Above normal Above normal

temps…mixed in temps…mixed in with some extreme with some extreme cold snapscold snaps

South South AmericaAmerica

AsiaAsia

SurfaceSurface

Ocean BottomOcean Bottom

The latest weekly SST departures are:

Niño 4 -0.2ºC

Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC

Niño 3 -0.5ºC

Niño 1+2 -0.3ºC

LA Nina LA Nina CompositesComposites

Oct-DecOct-Dec 1919 Case Case

StudiesStudies 70-80%70-80% of the of the

time = Much time = Much below normal below normal rainfall ( 3”-6” rainfall ( 3”-6” below normal)below normal)

Current Average

NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:

ThursdayThursday Sept 1, 2011 10 AM Sept 1, 2011 10 AM

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National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana