Weekly Weather BriefingWeekly Weather Briefing09/29/201109/29/2011

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Keith StellmanKeith StellmanWarning Coordination MeteorologistWarning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Overview

Today and FridayToday and Friday Near Record high temps ~100 TodayNear Record high temps ~100 Today Cold front pushes through the 4 state area Thur Cold front pushes through the 4 state area Thur

Night.Night. Strong winds and Low RH values on Fri make for Strong winds and Low RH values on Fri make for

potential Red Flag Conditions.potential Red Flag Conditions.

WeekendWeekend Much Cooler and remaining dry.Much Cooler and remaining dry.

Monday through WednesdayMonday through Wednesday Slow warmup through the week…remains dry.Slow warmup through the week…remains dry.

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Currently at Currently at the Surfacethe Surface

Old FrontOld FrontMore Humid AirmassMore Humid Airmass

Tonight/Friday Tonight/Friday FrontFront

Thursday HighsThursday Highs Sept 29Sept 29thth is is

the latest the latest recorded 100 recorded 100 degree day for degree day for SHV.SHV. Oct 1,2 for Oct 1,2 for

East TXEast TX Low RH Low RH

values today values today as wellas well

Fire Danger Fire Danger ThursdayThursday RH values will RH values will

be low be low combined with combined with dry fuels from dry fuels from lack of rain the lack of rain the past week.past week.

Winds running Winds running less than 10 less than 10 mph during mph during the daythe day

FridayFriday

LH

Front Front moves moves throughthrough

Cooler Cooler …but …but much much drier drier with with strong strong windswinds

Friday Max WindsFriday Max Winds Winds Winds

strongest strongest through 1 – 2 through 1 – 2 pm… pm… decreasing decreasing through the through the afternoonafternoon

Strongest Strongest across East TXacross East TX

Wind Direction Wind Direction = N -> NE= N -> NE

20-25 mph15-20 mph

10-15 mph

Friday Minimum RH %Friday Minimum RH % RH values RH values

decreasing decreasing through the through the day as drier air day as drier air filters in.filters in.

Lowest RH Lowest RH values 2 - 6 values 2 - 6 PMPM

< 15%15% - 20 %

20% - 25 %

SundaySunday Upper level low Upper level low

over great over great lakes will shift lakes will shift easteast

Upper ridge Upper ridge and surface and surface ridge build in.ridge build in.

Nice weekendNice weekend Highs – low Highs – low

80’s80’s Lows – 50’sLows – 50’s

LH

TuesdayTuesday Pattern Pattern

Change?!!!Change?!!! Ridge shifts Ridge shifts

easteast Trof develops Trof develops

over the westover the west

Nice WeatherNice Weather Highs – Mid Highs – Mid

80’s80’s Lows – upper Lows – upper

50’s/low 60’s50’s/low 60’s

L H

Next ThursdayNext Thursday Pattern Pattern

Change!!Change!! Large trof Large trof

develops develops across the across the westwest

Gulf opens up Gulf opens up and humidity and humidity returnsreturns

Chance of Chance of rain…? By rain…? By Fri/SatFri/Sat

LH

TropicsTropics

Neither are expected to impact the Neither are expected to impact the US over the next 7 daysUS over the next 7 days

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought

FIRE DANGER PERSISTS!FIRE DANGER PERSISTS!

Virtually no Virtually no change…change…

NCDC “An analysis of Texas NCDC “An analysis of Texas statewide tree-ring records statewide tree-ring records

dating back to 1550 indicates dating back to 1550 indicates that the summer of 2011 is that the summer of 2011 is

matched only by the summer of matched only by the summer of 1789.”1789.”

NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:

ThursdayThursday Oct 6, 2011 10 AM Oct 6, 2011 10 AM

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana