Weekly Weather BriefingWeekly Weather Briefing12/29/201112/29/2011

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefingwww.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Keith StellmanKeith StellmanWarning Coordination MeteorologistWarning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Overview TodayToday

Fog through the AM will burn off this afternoonFog through the AM will burn off this afternoon Sunny – temps in the low-mid 60sSunny – temps in the low-mid 60s

WeekendWeekend Pleasant – Sunny temps 60-70, lows 40-50Pleasant – Sunny temps 60-70, lows 40-50

Sunday through early TuesdaySunday through early Tuesday Dry Cold front moves through Sunday Dry Cold front moves through Sunday Arctic High builds in behindArctic High builds in behind Highs fall back into the lower 50sHighs fall back into the lower 50s Lows in the upper 20s – low 30’sLows in the upper 20s – low 30’s

Tuesday will be the coldest AM.Tuesday will be the coldest AM.

National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana

Current Weather – Big Current Weather – Big PicturePicture

L

LH

Dry Northwest Flow in the upper levelsDry Northwest Flow in the upper levels

Advection FogAdvection Fog

1:45 AM

3:45 AM5:45 AM

8:00 AM

9:15 AM

Strong Strong Low Level Low Level InversionInversionFog will Fog will

stick stick around around through through the AMthe AM

Advection FogAdvection Fog

Fog VisibilitiesFog Visibilities SHV - SHV -

1/16 1/16 TYR - ¼ TYR - ¼ GGG - ½GGG - ½ LFK – ¼LFK – ¼ OCH - OCH -

<1/4<1/4 JSO - JSO -

<1/4<1/4 ELD – ELD –

1/41/4

Today’s HighsToday’s Highs

Pattern on SaturdayPattern on Saturday

Surface high Surface high shifts south shifts south east.east.

Southerly flow Southerly flow returnsreturns

Next upper Next upper system system approachesapproaches

L

Pattern on SundayPattern on Sunday

Arctic Front Arctic Front moves throughmoves through

North/northeast North/northeast windswinds

Colder air works Colder air works inin

Front likely dry Front likely dry with only a with only a slight chance of slight chance of a showera shower

LH

Pattern on MondayPattern on Monday

Arctic High Arctic High moves in moves in overheadoverhead

Calm winds Calm winds Monday nightMonday night

Allows for Allows for maximized maximized radiational radiational cooling cooling

L

H

Cold Cold Tuesday Tuesday

AMAM Arctic High Arctic High

pressure builds pressure builds in.in.

Radiational Radiational coolingcooling

Temperatures Temperatures potentially potentially coldercolder

Pattern from Mon. Pattern from Mon. through Wed.through Wed.

More La Nina More La Nina like pattern like pattern setting upsetting up

Dry northwest Dry northwest flowflow

Slightly below Slightly below normal tempsnormal temps H

Rainfall for DecemberRainfall for December 1st above normal 1st above normal

month this year (for month this year (for most areas)most areas) SHV - SHV - 7.88” 7.88”

(+3.50)(+3.50) MLU – 8.87” (+4.06)MLU – 8.87” (+4.06) TXK – 5.68” (+1.00)TXK – 5.68” (+1.00) ELD – 9.38” (+4.68)ELD – 9.38” (+4.68) TYR – 5.73” (+1.89)TYR – 5.73” (+1.89) GGG – 6.26” (+2.13)GGG – 6.26” (+2.13) DEQ – 3.83” (-0.01)DEQ – 3.83” (-0.01)

Light Blue – 150-200% of Light Blue – 150-200% of normalnormal

Dark Blue 200-300% of Dark Blue 200-300% of normalnormal

Ongoing DroughtOngoing Drought

Some Some lowering in lowering in

LALA

Deep East Deep East TX still TX still D3/D4D3/D4

Rainfall needed to end Rainfall needed to end droughtdrought

over next 6 monthsover next 6 months Normal rainfall Normal rainfall from from December – December – May May

26.98” (SHV)26.98” (SHV) 23.17” (TYR)23.17” (TYR)

Area needs Area needs 30” – 35”30” – 35”

125% -150% of 125% -150% of normalnormal

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National Weather Service Shreveport, LouisianaNational Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana