welcome [] · 5/27/2020  · welcome. sacramento county . champions training program: economic...

93
WELCOME Sacramento County Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition May 27, 2020

Upload: others

Post on 31-May-2020

1 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

WELCOMES a c r a m e n t o C o u n t y

C h a m p i o n s T r a i n i n g P r o g r a m :

E c o n o m i c C r i s i s a n d R e c o v e r y S p e c i a l E d i t i o nM a y 2 7 , 2 0 2 0

Page 2: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

TODAY’S PROGRAM

1 p.m. Housekeeping Remarks

1:05 p.m. Welcome

1:10 p.m. The Practice, Process and Pillars of Economic Development

1:40 p.m. How to be a Champion Amidst an Economic Crisis

2:25 p.m. Sacramento International Airport Discussion

2:45 p.m. Panel

3:25 p.m. Final Thoughts and Closing

Page 3: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

WELCOME

Supervisor, District 1 Sacramento County

Phil Serna

Page 4: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

PRACTICES, PROCESSES AND PILLARS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Danielle Casey

Executive Vice PresidentGreater Sacramento Economic Council

Page 5: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

PRACTICES, PROCESSES AND PILLARS OF ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

GSEC as a best practice regional economic development leader and disruptor

Page 6: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

OUR PUBLIC/PRIVATE PARTNERSHIP

BOARD REPRESENTATION

70%

20 Cities/Counties

43 CEOS30%

BOARD INVESTMENT

79%

PUBLIC

PRIVATE21%

Primary functions are to:• Retain business

• Attract business

• Grow business

• Create jobs

• Grow investments

• Develop industries

The Greater Sacramento Economic Council is the catalyst for innovative growth strategies in the Capital Region

DavisWest Sacramento

WoodlandSacramento

Elk Grove

Roseville

Yuba City

LoomisRocklin

Galt

Folsom

Lincoln

Rancho Cordova

Citrus Heights

Page 7: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

Competitiveness Council:Advises Board on strategic direction

Industry Councils:Helping to develop approaches for target industry growth – these include the Food and Agriculture Council, Business Development Advancement Council, and upcoming new Industry Consortiums to be announced soon

Champions Program: A manner for education and engagement of the general public and stakeholders, as well as to offer higher level connectivity for Certified Champion investors

Economic Development Directors Taskforce: Monthly connectivity with all community directors and support through research, marketing/public relations and business development services

PARTNERS DRIVE ORGANIZATIONAL SUCCESS

Page 8: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

INTERNAL ORGANIZATIONAL PILLARS

8

ResearchIdentifying economic trends, tracking and analyzing critical statistics and building a value proposition

02EngagementBoard of Directors, councils, Champions, Economic Development Directors Taskforce and community programs

01

Business developmentLead generation, prospect handling, project management, deal closing and job creation

04Marketing and PRTelling our story on a local, regional and national platform for brand awareness and economic development

03

Page 9: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT BUILDING BLOCKS

5. Business retention and expansion

4. Prospect identification, development and location

3. Brand development and marketing

2. Create data-driven value proposition

1. Identify strengths and weaknesses through research

Page 10: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

1. IDENTIFYING STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Page 11: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

THE BROOKINGS MARKET ASSESSMENT

Compared to the 100 largest U.S. metros, the Sacramento MSA lags in job growth, output per job and median wage growth over the past decade (2006-2016)

Sacramento MSA rankings

67thGrowth

71st

Prosperity

84thInclusion

Widespread poverty is the result of a decade’s worth of poor economic performance.

of the Sacramento region’s residents live in a struggling family, including 1/3

Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2018; Brookings analysis of the University of Washington Center for Women’s Welfare County-Based Sufficiency Standard

42%47%of blackresidents

of Hispanicresidents

Page 12: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

REGIONAL ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

– Sacramento Bee

“Sacramento recently finished dead last for business friendliness in a survey of small businesses of 82 major cities. The survey, by Thumbtack.com, hit the River City with a report card of mostly Fs in areas like tax code, regulations and ease of starting a business.

… Hayes also noted that Sacramento’s best grade – a C in “ease of hiring” – was perhaps the most relevant on the scorecard and shows the region’s abundance of professional talent, a primary factor for site-seeking big businesses. ”

Source: EMSI, ECONOMY OVERVIEW

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%Share of government jobs

Page 13: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

LOW RELATIVE GROWTH RATE IN TRADABLE SECTOR JOBS

1.60%1.40%

0.70%0.50%

0.30% 0.30%

-0.10%

-0.50%-0.70%

San Antonio Orlando Columbus Cleveland Pittsburgh Riverside Cincinnati St Louis GreaterSacramento

Annual employment growth rate in tradable sectors (2006-2016)

Source: Brookings, “Metro Monitor,” 2018; Brookings analysis of the University of Washington Center for Women’s Welfare County-Based Sufficiency Standard

Page 14: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

2. CREATE A DATA-DRIVEN VALUE PROPOSITION

Page 15: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

FAST FACTS ABOUT GREATER SACRAMENTO

#1 fastest growing large community in California(California Department of Finance 2018)

$6 billionin urban core development since 2016(Downtown Sacramento Partnership 2019)

#1 in women founded businesses in the nation(Center for American Entrepreneurship Analysis of Pitchbook Data, 2017)

#6 in small tech markets in North America(2019 CBRE Tech Talent Report))

#3 city in the U.S. for most net millennial in migration (Smart Asset 2018)

9.5%annual growth rate in population with tech degrees (Commercial Café 2019)

Page 16: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

#1 MEGAREGION MIGRATION DESTINATION

29,091people move from the Bay Area to

Greater Sacramento each year

That’s more than:Denver (3,156)

Austin (3,017)

and Seattle (7,683)

Combined

Source: US Census Bureau County to County Migration 2013-2017, https://data.census.gov/cedsci/

Page 17: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

MEDIAN AGE IN GREATER SACRAMENTO DECREASING

GREATER SACRAMENTO SAN FRANCISCO

PORTLAND SEATTLE

36.8 38.8

37.8 37.1

Median Age

21%MILLENNIALS

2,547,2212019 POPULATION

47.9%RACIALLY DIVERSE

6.20%

19.40%20.87%

19.19% 18.60%

15.74%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

Less than 5 5 to 19 20 to 34 35 to 49 50 to 64 65+

Greater Sacramento Population by Age

Source: EMSI 2019.4 Regional Overview

Page 18: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

COMPETITIVE COST OF LIVINGGreater Sacramento is more affordable than Chicago, Boston, and the Bay Area.

Source: C2ER Cost of Living Index 2019.3

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

50

100

150

200

250

Austin Atlanta Sacramento Chicago Boston San Francisco

Cost of Living Across Comparison MSA’s

Cost of Living Index Percent More Expensive than Sacramento

Page 19: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

GREATER SACRAMENTO OFFERS COST OF LIVING ADVANTAGES TO COMPETING MARKETSConsidering cost of living, Greater Sacramento is more affordable than Denver, Portland, Seattle and the Bay Area.

Source: Redfin October 2019,Zillow October 2019, Sacramento Bee

Housing Cost Comparison Lower Median Millennial Neighborhood Rental Prices

Prop 13: CA’s property tax is capped at 1%.

Sacramento builds more homes than any California city north of LA.

MSA Median Home Price

Phoenix, AZ $282,000Austin, TX $320,000Sacramento, CA $419,000Denver, CO $420,000Seattle, WA $625,000Los Angeles, CA $630,000San Jose, CA $1,185,000San Francisco, CA $1,375,000

$1,441

$1,797 $1,858 $1,877

$2,206 $2,210 $2,260

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

Phoenix Austin Sacramento Denver Portland Seattle Los Angeles

Median Rental Price

Page 20: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

HIGHLY COMPETITIVE TALENT PIPELINE

384,660Currently enrolled 4-year university students within 100 miles

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, College Navigator

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

Greater Sacramento Seattle Austin Denver Portland

Comparison Market Talent Access

Greater Sacramento Seattle Austin Denver Portland

Page 21: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

HOW WE STACK UP: SOFTWARE

The annual cost of operations for a software company with 500 jobs in comparison to other regions

Source: Applied Economics MetroComp 2018

METRO AREA EMPLOYEE PAYROLL BENEFITS BUILDING LEASE

PAYMENTSPROPERTY TAX

TOTAL OPERATING COST

COST DIFFERENCE

Sacramento $49,231,440 $11,801,621 $3,612,000 $28,450 $64,673,511 -

Austin $48,194,950 $11,418,396 $5,039,000 $55,350 $64,707,696 $34,185

Denver $49,939,470 $11,812,912 $3,618,000 $55,916 $65,426,298 $752,787

San Diego $51,433,250 $12,324,110 $3,516,000 $28,400 $67,301,760 $2,628,249

Los Angeles $52,623,490 $12,606,554 $4,020,000 $29,175 $69,279,219 $4,605,708

Seattle $54,597,410 $13,030,484 $4,650,000 $25,951 $72,303,845 $7,630,334

Page 22: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

SACRAMENTO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT

Source: Google Maps, Departure at 11:30AM on 7/13/2016; Press Release, “Sac Intl Airport Posts 4 Years of Passenger Growth; Has Record-Breaking Jan-Feb-March,” (2018); Federal Aviation Administration, 2015; FAA, Final CY 2019 Passenger Boarding Data, 2018, Whatsnewstoday

Only 10 minutes from downtown

Named Best Airport of its size in the US by J.D. Power and Associates in 2017

Ranked 11 of 31 midsize US airports for enplanements

5th best airport of the 50 busiest in the U.S.

179NONSTOP FLIGHTS

40 NONSTOP NATIONAL

DESTINATIONS

04 NONSTOP INTERNATIONAL DESTINATIONS

Nonstop Flights from SMF17 Daily Nonstop Flights to Seattle

16 Daily Nonstop Flights to Los Angeles

10 Daily Nonstop Flights to Phoenix

6 Daily Nonstop Flights to Denver

5 Daily Nonstop Flights to Salt Lake City

4 Daily Nonstop Flights to Chicago

4 Daily Nonstop Flights to Las Vegas

4 Daily Nonstop Flights to Portland

1 Daily Nonstop Flight to Austin

Page 23: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

#2 Ranked state forFortune 500 HQs

$3.9B#2 Average profit

Fortune 500 Companies

411% more than

Arizona

374% more than

Colorado

22% more than Washington

76% more than Oregon

116% more than Texas

56% more than New York49

Source: Fortune 500, 2018 List

A PROFITABLE STATE FOR BUSINESS

Page 24: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

WITH A CAPITAL NETWORK THAT IS EXPANDING

Target Area: Technology, media, telecommunications, financial services, manufacturing and

distribution industries

Target Area: Healthcare, and internet/consumer application sectors

Source: AGR Partners, DCA Partners Moneta Ventures, Sacramento Business Journal, The March Fund, Pitchbook 2019

Target Area: Food and Agribusiness companiesTarget Area:

Biotechnology, machine intelligence and sustainable

nutrition solutions

Target Area: Civic tech, cybersecurity, fintech, big data,

telecom and media sectors

Over $800 millionin venture capital funds

Page 25: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

AND INCREASED INVESTMENT IN REGIONAL FIRMS

57% increase in the number of investment deals for companies in the Greater Sacramento region since 2015.

Since 2014, 472 additional investors invested in companies in the region, a 50% increase.

The amount of capital invested is now over $24 billion, which grew by 50% in the last 5 years.

There are now 670 exits in the region, which is an additional 219 companies, growing by 48% since 2014.

Page 26: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

3. BRAND DEVELOPMENT, MARKETING AND PUBLIC RELATIONS

Page 27: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

THE STORY BEING TOLD BY OTHERS

Page 28: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

POSITIONING FOR IMPACT ON ALL LEVELS

Global National Megaregional Regional

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) direct outreach and marketing campaigns emphasize the value of locating to California’s vibrant economic ecosystem.

#CaliforniaOption

Country-wide sales trips, presence at events, PR campaigns and marketing activations ensure consistent visibility on the national stage.

#CaliforniaOption

The megaregion proposition emphasizes shared value proposition with the Bay Area.

#CaliforniaJobsMatter

Building and communicating our regional value proposition and core assets ensures a consistent strategy and message on the ground.

#WeAreGreaterSac

Page 29: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

Business Xpansion Journal

An ad alongside a featured editorial was seen in the November 2019 issue, reaching 10,000 readers in print and 65,000 digitally.

Page 30: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

Major League Soccer is Official for SacramentoMedia coverage garnered 7,254 views, 1,945 engagements and 32,393 impressions

Page 31: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

Site Selector Familiarization TourOne significant new prospect requirements already received as a result

Media coverage garnered 1,671 video views, 559 engagements and 17,992 impressions

Page 32: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

NATIONAL CONSULTANT OUTREACH

Page 33: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

RECOVERY MESSAGING CAMPAIGN

• Leveraging of IEDC Economic Development Week to promote positive messaging underscoring the work of economic development orgs

• Launch of comprehensive marketing strategy to promote recovery and maintain brand visibility

• Launch of pivoted regional business retention and attraction strategy with focus on life sciences, fintech, workforce development and talent retention and attraction

Page 34: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

MEDIA AND PR IMPACTS SINCE MARCH 13

9 millionbroadcast media reach (Aug. – Oct. <50k)

32%Release open rates(double industry average)

141 millionNews potential reach (Aug. – Oct. 30 m)

$1.4 millionAd value estimate(Aug. – Oct. $285k)

Page 35: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

4. LEAD AND PROSPECT DEVELOPMENT

Page 36: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

PRIMARY CLIENT LOCATION SERVICESGreater Sacramento works directly with companies evaluating the region to provide turnkey solutions to their needs.

PROVIDE ACCESS TO TALENT

CREATE CAPACITY IDENTIFY NEEDS AND OPTIONS

o Provide access to talent

o Partnerships with universities for workforce delivery programs

o Identify base of qualified graduates/experienced workers

o Real estate, site, talent and timing needs

o Provide list of options that meet requirements

o Lead custom tours of shortlisted communities

o Real estate, site, talent and timing needs

o Provide list of options that meet requirements

o Lead custom tours of shortlisted communities

Page 37: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

TOP FACTORS FOR SITE SELECTION (2018)

Rankings Factor Very important/important %

1 Availability of skilled labor 100

T1 Proximity to major markets 100

T1 Highway accessibility 100

4 Labor costs 98.1

5 State and local incentives 98.0

6 Available land 96.1

6T Available buildings 96.1

6T Training programs/technical schools 96.1

6T Energy availability and costs 96.1

6T Proximity to suppliers 96.1

Source: Area Development Magazine, 2018

Page 38: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

THE REQUEST FOR INFORMATION PROCESS

Requirement Received • Site requirements

• Decision making criteria

Value proposition

development

• Site requests from regional communities

• Incentive offerings compiled

• Unique value proposition developed

Final proposal

submitted and

monitored

• Site tours hosted• Facilitated meetings held• Follow up and additional

information

Page 39: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT AND NEW MARKET PENETRATION

Bay Area / San Jose: 100

6 visits and two eventsLos Angeles / Orange County: 1007 visits and two events

Additional Domestic Markets:• Dallas• Austin• Washington, D.C.• San Diego• Chicago

• 250 Target List• Consulates• 800+ broker contacts, 30+

multipliers• 60+ individual meetings

Seattle: 503 visits

and one event

International Markets:• Germany (Hanover)• United Kingdom (tentative)

• Top 100 list• 10+ FDI targets• 20+ national site selection

consultants• Targeted development

industry firms

• Top 100 list development• 20+ existing relationships

Page 40: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

BROKER MOU’S AND TOOLKIT DELIVERY

Now have SEVEN Memorandums of Understanding executed with brokerage partners

Critical partnerships for generating market interest and aligning messaging

Page 41: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

5. BUSINESS RETENTION AND EXPANSION

Page 42: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

INITIAL BUSINESS SURVEY RESULTS

• Strong mix of respondent companies: 12% healthcare; 24% service; 13% professional, technical and scientific; 8% retail; 3.3% construction; 3% wholesale; 4% real estate and 4% educational

• 88% have seen a revenue decrease, half of which have seen a 90% or more loss; 9.6% have had no change

• Employee loss has occurred for 46% of respondents; a near even split between layoffs and furloughs

• Average response for survival before shutdown timeline was 11.2 weeks

• 48% had applied for EIDL loans, and 59% at the time of response were pending, 14% successful and 27% unsuccessful

• 58% had applied for PPP, and at the time of response 28% had been successful

• Consistently, when asked what was needed, most common answer was allowing businesses to reopen safely as soon as possible; next, it was PPE, tax breaks, and other financial support

517 responses over 3-week period, distributed through newsletter, website, via partners and directly to industry firms

Page 43: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

LAUNCH OF NEW SUPPORT TOOLS: SIZEUP

In first week was the 4th

most visited page on our site since November

In THE last month, ranks as the third most visited page overall

Page 44: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

ECONOMIC UPDATE COVID-19 IMPACTS

Source: Wall Street Journal

GDP Growth RatesQ2 2020 GDP growth rate forecasts are in the range of -25% to -40%

-25%: Wells Fargo-30%: Beacon Economics, & New York Federal Reserve Bank-38%: Congressional Budget Office -39%: Goldman Sachs-40%: JP Morgan

Labor Markets U.S. Labor Department has reported that 2.4 million Americans filed for unemployment claims in the week ending May 16. The total number of Americans who have filed for unemployment benefits in the past nine weeks is now 38.9 million.

The Sacramento MSA unemployment rate is 14.2%, Sacramento County at 14.7%.

Page 45: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

ECONOMIC UPDATE COVID-19 IMPACTS

Recovery• U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has

indicated that it might take over a year for the U.S. economy to recover from the aftermath of COVID-19 and expects unemployment to rise through June.

Businesses Reporting Growth• U.S. tech companies Facebook, Apple, Amazon, and

Microsoft have made $7.5 billion worth of deals in the first six weeks of Q2 2020 (Source: Pitchbook).

• Walmart has reported that its quarterly sales increased by 10% with e-commerce sales going up by 74% as consumers have switched to online ordering and home delivery.

Optimism Level Type of Recovery

Most Optimistic Z-Shaped

Still Very Optimistic V-Shaped

Somewhat Pessimistic U-Shaped

Very Pessimistic Nike-Swoosh

Still Very Pessimistic W-shaped

Most Pessimistic L-Shaped

Source: Brookings Institute

Page 46: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

Q & A

Danielle Casey

Executive Vice PresidentGreater Sacramento Economic Council

Page 47: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

HOW TO BE A CHAMPION AMIDST AN ECONOMIC CRISIS

Barry Broome

President & CEOGreater Sacramento Economic Council

Page 48: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

HOW TO BE A CHAMPION AMIDST AN ECONOMIC CRISIS

Page 49: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

WHY THE GSEC ORGANIZATION WAS BUILT

In the 2008 economic crisis, Greater Sacramento was the hardest hit regional economy in the western half of the U.S.

The region was:• 40% dependent on government jobs• 2nd highest in young adult unemployment

rate in the nation• Ranked 91st in inclusion out of the 100

largest metros according to the Brookings Institute.

“Sacramento recently finished dead last for business friendliness in a survey of small businesses of 82 major cities. The survey, by Thumbtack.com, hit the River City with a report card of mostly Fs in areas like tax code, regulations and ease of starting a business.

… Hayes also noted that Sacramento’s best grade – a C in “ease of hiring” – was perhaps the most relevant on the scorecard and shows the region’s abundance of professional talent, a primary factor for site-seeking big businesses. ”

Page 50: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

5-YEAR IMPACTS TO SACRAMENTO COUNTY

$42:1 Return on Investment on Direct Local Tax Revenue

$3,906:1 Return on Investment on Economic Output

Since GSEC’s inception in 2015, it has delivered the following impacts to Sacramento County:

$1,134,190Total investment over 5 years

$47,047,8335-year local tax revenue

Page 51: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

FY 19/20 ADDITIONAL AND CUSTOM SUPPORT SERVICES DELIVERED

• Four specific research requests delivered to Sacramento County estimated at 14 hours total staff time

• July 2019 episode of "The Download" Featuring Phil Serna - 687 views, 18,596 impressions and 355 engagements

• Aggie Square support, partnership and developer event featuring Wexford with 130+ CoreNet Global attendees

• Service on Advisory Board for California Mobility Center and staff partnership for marketing and facility launch

Page 52: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

DUPLICATION COST OF DATA SOURCES AND SERVICES AVAILABLE TO SACRAMENTO COUNTY VIA GSEC

MARKETING & WEB PRESENCE, VIDEO PRODUCTION AND PAID AND EARNED SOCIAL MEDIA

Hosting and maintaining an economic impact model, tourism impact model and a metro comparison model allows GSEC to produce impact reports for all projects and analyze return on investment for local incentives.

ESRI Business Analytics and Big Data available through GreaterSacramentoSites.com along with property listing tools and custom community demographics, business data and infographics. GSEC also holds licenses to CoStar, allowing access to all marketed listings and analytics.

Estimated replacement cost of data services including subscription and hosting costs as well as associated staff management time: $250,000 + annually

GIS BASED BUSINESS DATA TOOLS, STORY MAPS AND COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE LISTINGS

Website hosting and maintenance cost to provide a trackable, regional promotional tool with integrated data sets and sources, along with social media management and tools.

GRANULAR LABOR DATA ANALYSIS AND CUSTOM LOCAL DEMOGRAPHICS

Using EMSI, GSEC can analyze labor, job posting, demographic, industry and occupational trends to the 6-digit NAICS code level. Cost of living C2ER database provides cost comparisons to articulate value proposition to prospects. The recently launched SizeUp small business tool supports local small business and is free to all.

LEAD GENERATION AND PROSPECTING TOOLS FOR NEW OPPORTUNITIES

GSEC, on behalf of the region, subscribes to Pitchbook and other data sets such as external market lists, Hoovers D&B, Fortune 500 and Inc. 5000 for lead generation purposes for the region.

ECONOMIC IMPACT ANALYSIS AND METRO COMPARISON MODEL

Page 53: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

TOTAL IMPACT DELIVERY SINCE GSEC’S INCEPTION

The following statistics are the total economic impact to the region and California since 2015:

Average wage: $61,762

Direct economic impact: $3.58 billion

Total local tax revenue: $76.5 million

Total jobs: 14,787

Total jobs added to California: 15,637

Total economic impact to California:

$7.05 billion

Total tax revenue to California:

$129 million

Page 54: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

DEMOGRAPHICS AND INTENTIONAL STRATEGIES DRIVE A MODERN ECONOMY

California is frequently ranked last in the U.S. for business climate due to high taxes and complex regulations.

To succeed in a modern economy we must:• Build a university-led model

• UC Davis as a research institute• Sacramento State as an applied institute • Los Rios Community College as a training

institute• Optimize the region’s innovation ecosystem • Improve the region’s retention of college

graduates• Promote equity

27%

27%

28%

28%

29%

29%

30%

30%

31%

31%

32%

2015-2016 2016-2017 2017-2018

Percent of UC Davis graduates that stay in Greater Sacramento

Page 55: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

BEST AND WORST METROS FOR GRAD RETENTION

Four-year institution college grad retention rates

Best Large Metros Retention Rate

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA 71.1%Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA 70.6%

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI 70.2%

Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX 66.1%

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA 65.2%

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA 64.6%

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA 64.2%

Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX 63.7%

Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN 63.0%

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA 62.9%

Worst Large Metros Retention RatePhoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ 18.0%

Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT 26.4%

Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC 31.6%

Providence-Fall River-Warwick, RI-MA 31.9%New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA 33.3%Rochester, NY 34.0%Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY 35.8%

Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA 37.3%

Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX 38.4%Oklahoma City, OK 39.3%

Source: Citylab; includes aggregate graduate data

Page 56: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

WHERE YOUR ECONOMY COMES FROM

Where Sacramento County Workers Live (2017)

Share

Sacramento County, CA 60.79%Placer County, CA 7.48%Yolo County, CA 3.91%

El Dorado County, CA 3.10%San Joaquin County, CA 2.83%

Solano County, CA 1.97%Contra Costa County, CA 1.96%

Alameda County, CA 1.94%Santa Clara County, CA 1.56%

• 40% of Sacramento County’s workforce comes from outside the County

• Other counties in the region such as Placer, Yolo and El Dorado contribute significantly to the workforce

Page 57: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

ADOPTING TARGET INDUSTRY CLUSTERS AND STRATEGIES

$44 Million for Green City

Future Mobility Agricultural Technology Health & Life Sciences

Page 58: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

TECH TALENT IS LEADING GLOBAL INNOVATION

The high-tech industry has accounted for about 20% of major office-leasing activity in the U.S. since 2018 – the most of any industry.

The number of tech talent workers has increased by 16% in the past five years, adding 693,000 jobs to the U.S. economy at a pace more than twice the national average.

The 5.2 million tech talent workers in the U.S. account for 3.7% of total workers.

Tech talent job growth has a multiplier effect that positively impacts economic growth.

Source: 2019 CBRE US Tech Talent Report, Cyberstates 2018

At $1.6 trillion, the tech sector is one of the largest components of the nation's economy.

Page 59: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

GREATER SACRAMENTO LIFE SCIENCES COMPANIESUniversity-led research parks allow for services and innovative partnerships that reach companies and communities across the region.

City of RocklinBusinesses : 25Employees: 172Ex: Cell Marque Corporation

City of Elk GroveBusiness: 36Employees: 49Ex: Diagnostic Radiological Imaging

City of RosevilleBusinesses : 50Employees: 462Ex: PASCO Scientific

City of GaltBusiness: 3Employees: 23Ex: Moore Biological Consultants

City of FolsomBusiness: 38Employees: 142Ex: InVision 3D-4D Ultrasound

City of Yuba CityBusinesses: 21Employees: 92Ex: West Coast Pathology Laboratories

City of WoodlandBusiness: 35Employees: 228Ex: JR Scientific

City of Rancho CordovaBusiness: 37 Employees: 389Ex: Ampac Fine Chemicals

City of SacramentoBusiness: 260Employees: 847Ex: Immuno Concepts

City of West SacramentoBusiness: 28Employees: 322Ex: Idexx Reference Laboratories, Inc.

City of DavisBusiness: 101Employees: 767Ex: Evolve Biosystems

City of LincolnBusinesses : 5Employees: 30Ex. Quest Diagnostics Incorporated

Town of LoomisBusinesses : 5Employees: 20Ex. Command Sourcing

Aggie Square

City of Citrus HeightsBusiness: 16Employees: 30Ex: Derm Defense, LLC

Source — Number of businesses: DB Hoovers, Job Count: EMSI

Page 60: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

UC DAVIS AGGIE SQUARE OVERVIEW

About Aggie SquareA UC Davis technology and innovation park that will house 2 million square feet of life science-anchored commercial lab space. • $1 billion investment 2020• Technology focus:

• Cell and Gene Therapy • Genomics • Imaging Modalities

• 10,000 direct and 27,000 induced jobs

Source: UC Davis Aggie Square 2019

About WexfordWexford Science & Technology and GMH Capital Partners were selected as the official developers of phase one of Aggie Square. • University of Maryland BioPark

• 350,000+ square feet of sophisticated lab and office space and housing for early bioscience companies

• Cortex Innovation Community, St. Louis, Missouri

• Over 500,000 square feet of lab and office space and home to a regional Microsoft HQ

Current Status • IMB and Alice Waters Institute

for Edible Education are announced anchor tenants

• 28 companies with intent interest

• 4 anchor institutions each investing in 100,000 square feet of R&D lab space

Page 61: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

FUTURE MOBILITY AND THE CA MOBILITY CENTER

City of Rancho CordovaBusiness: 31 Employees: 371Banalogic

City of SacramentoBusiness: 95Employees: 1,249Rex Hutchison Racing Engines

City of West SacramentoBusiness: 18Employees: 173Enoven Truck and Body

City of RocklinBusinesses : 17Employees: 55Lawton Industries

City of Elk GroveBusiness: 13Employees: 40Gnb Corp

City of RosevilleBusinesses : 23Employees: 243Sinister Manufacturing Company

Placer CountyBusinesses : 21Employees: 460Autoflow Products

El Dorado CountyBusiness: 16 Employees: 228Rack-It Truck Racks

Sacramento CountyBusiness: 67Employees: 1,854Pacific Truck Tank

Yuba CountyBusinesses : 2Employees: 11Auto Gear Performance

Yolo CountyBusiness: 11Employees: 505Enersys inc

City of WoodlandBusiness: 7Employees: 304Elite Motorsports

Page 62: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

CALIFORNIA MOBILITY CENTER

German led, state-of-the-art center focused on prototyping future mobility including autonomous, electrification, connectivity and shared mobility technologies.

• $100 million Enertech Capital fund• $15 million in partnerships• Center chaired by Arlen Orchard, CEO of

SMUD• $50 million investment by Los Rios Community

College District to develop a state-of-the-art training center

• Engineering programs from UC Davis andSacramento State will consolidate engineering programs for the Center

• Fall 2020 launch date

Source: Sacramento Business Journal Oct. 2019

Page 63: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATIONS: CONSORTIUM MODELS

Makeup include leaders in regional and Bay Area firms in banking, mortgage, lending and wealth advisory and experts on fintech and digital innovationconcepts

• 8,824 fintech jobs

• 52 fintech companies

• Technology focus on helping small business, lending and digital banking

Life Science

Composed of private biotechnology,pharmaceutical and medical devicebusinesses, education institutions and healthcare providers

• 500+ life science companies

• 17,350 jobs in life science

• 10% job growth rate since 2014

• Strong focus in agbiosciences, biotechnology and medical devices

Fintech

Page 64: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

In partnership with Per Scholas, CodeBridge provides no-cost training in web development and job placement assistance forindividuals from underrepresented communities, with over 250+adults trained todate.

18 -week program, including 12 week GA Software Engineering Immersive training

PRESS“Year ago this guy was a janitor. Now he’s working for a hot start up.”

CodeBridge

Interapt is a small, Louisville-based services firm that’s partnered with GA to bring opportunities to underserved parts of the Louisville. Just last month, all 20 graduates of the pilot were offered full-time jobs - as registered apprentices -working on projects for Humana, Kindred, and GE.

GA’s 12 week immersive training in Software Engineering

PRESS“GA Partners with Interapt to Launch in Kentucky and Bring Best-in-Class Tech Training to New Markets”

Disney’s CODE:Rosie program trains women employees in non-technical roles to become software engineers, therebyincreasing gender diversity intheir tech organization.

GA’s 12 week immersive training in Software Engineering

PRESS“How Disney is turning women from across the company into coders”

UPSKILL STRATEGY: GENERAL ASSEMBLY

To date, GA has enabled over 1,000 individuals from underserved communities to access training and pursue careers in tech at no cost and teamed up with leading companies to invest in building diverse tech talent pipelines.

Provides scholarships in local communities for immersivedigital. trainings. Participants are placed in a technical internship following completion of the program, with 65 students served to date.

GA’s 12 week immersive training in UX Design and Software Engineering

PRESS“The Adobe Digital Academy: An Apprenticeship for Today’sWorld”

Page 65: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

UPSKILL STRATEGY: GENERAL ASSEMBLY

The goal of this effort is to provide those impacted by COVID-19 an opportunity to reskill for career tracks in tech that have strong long-term prospects and build a diverse talent pipeline to attract tech jobs to Greater Sacramento.

Our goals:● Reach 100 adults in underserved communities, lay the

foundation to scale to reach up to 2,000● Goal is to create a proof-point -- demonstrate that

reskilling for a software engineering or IT career can be done -- and then scale the impact using $10M of deployable funding through 12/31/2020

● There is value in creating talent with skills and credentials attractive to big tech employers like Google, Salesforce, Microsoft and Amazon to draw their investment to Greater Sacramento

Their proposal:● A localized reskilling program centered on two

career tracks:○ GA’s Software Engineering Immersive, for entry-

level roles as developers○ Google’s IT Professional Certificate, for entry-

level roles in IT (through GA’s partners MeritAmerica)

● GA will stand up a virtual team to coordinate program management of this initiative, includingadmissions, training and facilitating job outcomespost-program

● Total estimated investment is $720,000, net of a $100,000 contribution from The Adecco Foundation

Page 66: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

UPSKILL STRATEGY: GENERAL ASSEMBLY

Offers reskilling opportunities to exit into entry-level jobs in high-demand tech jobs. Provides both a software engineering track and IT profession track to maximize access while deploying programs with strong records for job outcomes.

DiscoverGA and Merit will host

virtual information sessions to help

candidates choose a program and apply.

ApplyProspective students

apply. Successful applicants are invited to

enroll.

ReskillStudents complete their program pathway with ongoing support until

they’re successfully placed into a job.

1 2 3

Page 67: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE REGIONAL ECONOMY

The Greater Sacramento region was one of the first regions to recover from the 2001 recession but one of the last to recover in 2008.

In the Brookings Institute’s 2018 report it noted that 24% of the occupations in the region now require high level digital skills, up from only 6.2% in 2002.

Page 68: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

RECOVERY PLAN: THE PROBLEM TO ADDRESS

• Aspen Institute for Upskilling America noted that more that 8 in 10 middle-skill jobs (82%) require digital skills.

• The number one program or skill that can remove people from poverty was obtaining a Salesforce certification.

Source: Digital US: Building A Digitally Resilient Workforce, Digital US Coalition and Aspen Institute

Page 69: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

RECOVERY PLAN: VALUE EXPLANATION

UC Berkeley’s Dr. Enrico Moretti demonstrates the value of tradable sector jobs and their impact on the economy:

• Digital jobs have the highest multiplier effect, creating 4.9 jobsfor every high tech and digital job created.

• Conversely, a non-tradable job like a barber or restaurant worker supports <1 additional job.

• Government jobs have some of the lowest multiplier effect creating 0.25 jobs for every one government job.

• This is due to the fact these jobs do not have a supply chain, do not scale, have no global connectivity and do not create wealth.

Page 70: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

REGIONAL RECOVERY PLAN RECOMMENDATIONS

Enterprise Retention and Scale Up Fund • Loans to tradable sector companies• Offers permanent working capital to businesses

ELEVATE convertible debt fund • Offers assistance to companies ready to scale so

they can expand and hire faster

Excellence in Student Entrepreneur Program • Supports new student entrepreneurship venture

programs

Digital Upskilling • Training and placing of displaced and

disadvantaged workers in digital skills• Offering incentives to companies for hiring

these workers

Arts to Technology • Focus on upskilling artists in digital skills by

training arts and creative types so they can work and produce art for the community

Page 71: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

Q & A DISCUSSION

Barry Broome

President & CEOGreater Sacramento Economic Council

Page 72: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

SACRAMENTO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT UPDATE AND DISCUSSION

Mark Haneke

Air Service Development and Marketing ManagerSacramento International Airport

Page 73: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

SACRAMENTO COUNTY AIRPORT SYSTEM

GSEC Champions Program

COVID-19 Impact on SMF’s Air Service Development ProgramMay 27, 2020

Page 74: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

74

2019 Was a Banner Year for SMF!

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mill

ions

SMF Annual Passengers

Source: Sacramento County Airport System

Page 75: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

75

Summer 2020 Looked Promising

Aeromexico planned double-daily flights to Guadalajara (Jul)

Air Canada planned to launch 2nd daily nonstop flight to Vancouver (Jul-Sep)

jetBlue planned to launch 2nd daily (daytime) nonstop flight to JFK (Jun-Sep) and extend seasonal SMF-BOS nonstop flight (May-Oct)

Southwest Airlines planned 100 weekday flights to 23 destinations (Jul)

Volaris planned double daily flights to a combination of Guadalajara/Leon/Morelia (Jun-Aug)

SMF was anticipating 175+ flights/day to 40+ nonstop destinations by July 2020

Page 76: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

76

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1/M

ar

3/M

ar

5/M

ar

7/M

ar

9/M

ar

11/M

ar

13/M

ar

15/M

ar

17/M

ar

19/M

ar

21/M

ar

23/M

ar

25/M

ar

27/M

ar

29/M

ar

31/M

ar

2/A

pr

4/A

pr

6/A

pr

8/A

pr

10/A

pr

12/A

pr

14/A

pr

16/A

pr

18/A

pr

20/A

pr

22/A

pr

24/A

pr

26/A

pr

28/A

pr

30/A

pr

2/M

ay

4/M

ay

6/M

ay

8/M

ay

10/M

ay

12/M

ay

14/M

ay

16/M

ay

18/M

ay

20/M

ay

22/M

ay

24/M

ay

2020

as

% o

f 20

19 F

igur

es

TSA

Thr

ough

put C

ount

s

SMF TSA Counts and % of 2019 Totals

TSA Counts SMF 2020 as % of 2019

Then COVID-19 Reality Hit

Passenger demand fell off a cliff in mid-March

We hit bottom around April 20

Source: Sacramento County Airport System

Page 77: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

77

Over 50% of US Passenger Carrier Fleets are Grounded

Airlines struggle in attempts to match capacity to passenger demand

Source: Airlines for America

Page 78: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

78

Airline Capacity Continues to Outstrip Passenger Demand

Delta is artificially capping its flights at 60% to comply with social distancing recommendations

Source: Airlines for America

Page 79: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

79

New Recovery Hope Springs Eternal in May

SMF outpaces the US National Average by 3.5 percentage points throughout May

Source: Sacramento County Airport System

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

SMF vs. US Avg % of 2019 Totals

SMF 2020 as % of 2019 US 2020 Avg as % of 2019

Page 80: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

80

Sacramento Economic Fundamentals have Changed since the Financial Crisis of 2008-09

Sacramento lies in the upper quartile of 2020 Metro GDP growth

Page 81: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

81

Sacramento is Better Poised to Weather the Covid-19 Crisis

Sacramento lies in the upper right quadrant of medium-term Metro GDP growth

Page 82: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

82

Metro Areas with strong Tourism/Entertainment Sectors Will Take Longer to Recover

Restoration of nonstop capacity to some Leisure-oriented markets might take longer

Source: Oxford Economics

Page 83: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

83

Uncertainties Remain

V, U, W, L-shaped recovery?Double-dip in Fall 2020?24-/36-/48-/60-month recovery to CY2019 levels?

Leading economists differ in their recovery projections

Page 84: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

84

Past Precedent Suggests Recovery OpportunitiesVFR and leisure markets tend to recover faster than business markets following an economic downturn

Potential for increased service to sun/beach destinationsMore Hawaii (Kona, Lihue)More Mexico (Cabo, Cancun, Puerto Vallarta)More sun (Palm Springs, Florida (Orlando/Ft. Lauderdale))

Historical Precedent:Hawaiian Airlines launched nonstop service post 9/11 to SMF in June 2002Alaska Airlines launched nonstop service post financial crisis to Maui in April 2010

Page 85: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

85

Encouraging Schedule Developments at SMF

Volaris resumes SMF-GDL service June 1 following a two-month suspensionDelta adds back SMF-ATL #2 in June and plans to resume SMF-MSP nonstop service in JulyHawaiian and Southwest plan to resume nonstop service to Honolulu and Maui after the Governor lifts the 14-day mandatory quarantine for all arriving passengers (~July)Southwest advised anecdotal evidence of SMF outpacing other California airport recovery rates

Page 86: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

86

Conclusions

Initial SMF traffic recovery statistics are encouragingWe are comparing our initial Covid-19 recovery traffic projections with several other econometric models and will revise as neededBiggest unknowns at this point include:Will there be a second resurgence of the virus in fall 2020?Will it take 24-/36-/48-/60- months to recover to 2019 traffic levels?

Transatlantic/transpacific aspirations are likely delayed 2-3 years as traffic recoversNew short/medium-haul sun/beach destination service opportunities will likely emerge within the next 12-18 months (more Hawaii, more Mexico, more Florida)

SMF is well-poised for a solid recovery

Page 87: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

Questions?

Thank you!

Page 88: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

MODERATOR: ECONOMIC RECOVERY NEXT STEPS IN SACRAMENTO COUNTY

Rico Rivera

CEO & RealtorSilicon East Real Estate

Page 89: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

Michael JassoAssistant City Manager City of Sacramento

Michael Ault Executive Director Downtown Sacramento Partnership

Ken Turton President Turton Real Estate

PANELISTS: ECONOMIC RECOVERY NEXT STEPS IN SACRAMENTO COUNTY

Page 90: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

FINAL THOUGHTS AND CLOSING REMARKS

Patrick Kennedy

Supervisor, District 2Sacramento County

Page 91: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

BE A CHAMPION EVERY DAY• Fill out the survey we emailed you

• Participate in GSEC events and programs, and use your knowledge to be a thought leader in conversations

• Refer potential businesses to us for assistance in growing, staying or relocating

• Consider engaging as an Invested Champions or other investment level for added value

Page 92: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

Engage with us.

@SelectSac

@GreaterSac

@SelectSacramento

GreaterSacramento.com

Text GREATERSAC to 484848 to sign up for text updates

Page 93: WELCOME [] · 5/27/2020  · WELCOME. Sacramento County . Champions Training Program: Economic Crisis and Recovery Special Edition. May 27, 2020

Thank You

@selectsacFacebook.com/GreaterSac

selectsacramento

Greater Sacramento Economic CouncilGreaterSacramento.com