will the world run out of resources? - world resources forum · source: jorgen randers, 2052,...

HANDELSHØYSKOLEN BI

J Randers 1

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

Jorgen Randers 1

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

Jorgen Randers

Professor emeritus

Climate strategy

BI Norwegian Business School

World Resources Forum 2017

Geneva, October 24. 2017

CENTRE FOR

GREEN GROWTH

Will the world run out of resources?

The Limits to Growth

(LTG):

Twelve scenarios for

the 21st century,

warning against

growth beyond the

carrying capacity of

small planet Earth.


J Randers 3

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOLNORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL

1900 1950 2000 2050 21000

1

1

11

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

34

4

4

4

5

5

55

Year

5: Nonrenewable resources

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level

2: Foodoutput

1: Population

One “sad” future: Resource crisis (LTG Sc 1)

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004


J Randers 4


A “better” future: Sustainability (LTG Sc 9)

Source: Meadows, Randers and Meadows, LTG 30 year update, 2004

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100Year

0

1

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

3

3

33

44

4

4

5

5

5

5

5: Nonrenewable resources

1: Population

2: Foodoutput

3: Industrial output

4: Pollution level

2052 – A Global

Forecast for the Next

Forty Years

A forecast of global

developments to 2052,

predicting that global

warming will exceed +2

deg C in mid-century

See www.2052.info


J Randers 6


The five regions used in the 2052 forecast

Region Population

2010

(billion

people)

GDP

2010

(trillion

$ pr year)

GDP per person

2010

(1000

$ pr person-year)

US 0,3 13 41

China 1,3 10 7

OECD-less-US (1) 0,7 22 30

BRISE (2) 2,4 14 6

ROW (3) 2,1 8 4

Sum world 6,9 67 10

Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, 2012

(1) Old industrial world, including EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, New Zealand etc

(2) Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and the ten biggest emerging economies

(3) The remaining ca 140 countries of the world


J Randers 7


Figure 4-1 Population – World 1970 to 2050

World population will peak in 2040

Source: Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, 2012 and Goluke, www.2052.info 2016

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

0

2

4

6

8

10

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Birth rate

Death rate

(scale →)

Population

(←scale)

% / yrGpersons

g161007 2052 update GAG 2016

http://www.2052.info/


J Randers 8


Fertility will continue its spectacular decline


0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

4,5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55

Cru

de

bir

th r

ate

(in

% p

er

yr)

GDP per person (1 000 $ per person-year)

USA

OECD

World

RoW

BRISE

China

OECD

World

RoW

BRISE

China

USA

Crude birth rate (in % per year)

Solid: Historical decline in the number of children per woman 1970-2010

Dashed: Future decline in the number of children per woman 1970-2010



J Randers 9


World GDP will grow more slowly than before


0,0

1,5

3,0

4,5

6,0

7,5

9,0

0

50

100

150

200

250

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GDP(←scale)

T$ / yr

g161007 2052 update GAG 2016

Gpersons

Population

(scale →)

GDP per pperson

(scale →→)

30

1000$/yr

40

50

20

10

0

Figure 4-3 (modified): Gross Domestic Product – World 1970 to 2050

Definition: GDP = Population multiplied with GDP per inhabitant



J Randers 10


GDP growth rate will decline towards zero

Source: Ozgun O et al, Future of Spaceship Earth Project, DNV GL report 2016-0524

Rate of growth in GDP per person per year (in % / yr)

CHINA 2015-2050

OECD

ROWBRISE

USA


J Randers 11


There will be huge regional differences


0

6

12

18

24

30

36

1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

USA

OECD

China

World

BRISE

RoW

Consumption per person (in 1000 PPP US$ per person per year)



J Randers 12

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOLNORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: Jorgen Randers, 2052, Chelsea Green, Vermont, May 2012

0

100

200

300

400

500

0

5

10

15

20

25

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Energy use

(←scale)

toe / M$Gtoe / yr

Energy intensity

= Energy use

per unit of GDP

(scale →)

150

T$ / yr

GDP

(scale →→)200

250

100

50

0

g170926 2052 update 2016

Efficiency will rise & energy use peak in 2030


J Randers 13


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0,0

1,5

3,0

4,5

6,0

7,5

9,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Gtoe / yr

Nuclear use

Renewable

energy use

g170926 2052 update 2016

Fossil use Gtoe / yr

Fossil use

(scale →)

World use of fossil fuels will peak in 2025


J Randers 14

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOLNORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOL Source: http://news.energysage.com/should-i-go-solar-now-or-wait/

Cost of solar will fall more, installations grow


J Randers 15


0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

0

9

18

27

36

45

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 emissions

(←scale)

tCO2 / toeGtCO2 / yr

Climate intensity

= CO2 per unit

of energy

(scale →)

Gtoe/yr

Energy use

(scale →→)

g170926 2052 update 2016

15

20

25

10

5

0.0

CO2 emissions from energy will peak in 2025


J Randers 16


The temperature will peak at + 2,5 ̊C in 2080

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100

ESCIMO with 2016CO2 emissions

History NOAA

°C

g161010 2052 - update 2016

The 2052 forecast

Temperature rise over 1850 (in °C)

Source: Randers et al 2016, “ESCIMO”, Earth System Dynamics Journal,

doi:10.5194/esd-2016-13


J Randers 17


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0,0

1,5

3,0

4,5

6,0

7,5

9,0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Oil use

Gtoe / yr

Gas useCoal use

g170926 2052 update 2016

Fossil use Gtoe / yr

Fossil use

(scale →)

Coal - and oil - will peak in 2020s. Gas in 2030s


J Randers 18


Figure 6-1: Food Production – World 1970 to 2050

There will be enough food to cover demand – but not need


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Food production

(←scale)

MhaGt / yr

Cultivated land

(scale →)

7.5

t/ha-yr

Gross yield

(scale →→)

10.0

12.5

5.0

2.5

0g161007 2052 update GAG 2016



J Randers 19


There will be enough biocapacity

0

3

6

9

12

15

0

3

6

9

12

15

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Total biocapacity

(←scale)

GghaGgha

Unused biocapacity

(scale →)

Non-energy footprint

(scale →)

g170926 2052 update 2016


J Randers 20


The share of GDP in resource supply will grow towards 2050

Source Harald Sverdrup, WORLD6, personal comunication, 2017


J Randers 21


Figure 4-4: Production, Consumption and Investment – World 1970 to 2050


0

50

100

150

200

250

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

GDP

T$ / yr

Consumption

g161007 2052 update GAG 2016

Traditional

investment

(25% of GDP)

Unavoidable spending

on environment, climate,

repair and inequity

More unavoidable costs will slow consumption



J Randers 22


What could be done to create a better world?

Phase out the use of coal, oil and gas

in an organised and well-planned manner by 2050.

This single action would cut global GHG emissions by 70%

Stopping the use of fossil fuels would entail

1. Shift to sun and wind for electricity

2. Shift to electric transport (cars, trains, trucks, and

ferries)

3. Shift to electric heating (with heat pumps) – like

cooling with air conditioners

4. Shift to industrial heating based on electricity, heat pumps,

some waste and biomass

All are technically possible and not very expensive (<+50%).


J Randers 23

NORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOLNORWEGIAN BUSINESS SCHOOLSource: Randers et.al., 2016 A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the

ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016

Phasing out fossil fuels by 2050 …

The 2052 forecast

The renewable

electricity scenario


J Randers 24



https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016

…would keep temperature rise below +2°

The 2052 forecast

The renewable

electricity scenario


J Randers 25



https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-7-831-2016

… and keep sea level rise below 0.7m

The 2052 forecast

The renewable

Electricity scenario


J Randers 26


How could fossils be phased out in practice?

By banning investment in new fossil capacity:

1. Electricity:

Ban all investment in new fossil capacity from 2020

– use the money for renewable energy (sun. wind, hydro)

and infrastructure (storage and distribution)

2. Transport:

Ban all purchase of new fossil vehicles from 2025

– use the money for electric vehicles, trains, ferries and

infrastructure (charging)

3. Buildings and industry:

Ban investment in badly insulated buildings from 2020 and

ban the use of fossil fuels for heating from 2030

– use the money to build well-insulated buildings

heated/cooled with renewable power and heat-pumps or

direct heat from sun and biomas


J Randers 27


What should you do?

1. Continue your efforts to increase resource productivity

And more generally, to reduce the footprint per person

.

2. But change the rationale

From saving the world from resource scarcity,

to reducing climate emissions and helping the poor world grow

without exceeding global resource availability

.

3. Help accelerate the elimination of fossil fuels

Which amounts to political action to help rapid electrification of the

world


J Randers 28


Something needs to be done!

[email protected] www.2052.info


J Randers 29


The following slides are backups

for potential use in the discussion


J Randers 30


What does this mean technically speaking?

It means replacing current fossil based solutions:

1. Replace coal- and gas-powered electricity plants

with electricity from sun, wind, hydro and (some)

biomass – and build the necessary infrastructure (for

storage and distribution)

2. Replace oil- and gas-powered vehicles with electric

vehicles – and build the necessary infrastructure (for

charging)

3. Replace badly insulated buildings with well insulated

buildings, and

replace all fossil based heating and cooling with

electric heat pumps, plus heat from sun and biomass


J Randers 31


Not very expensive, mainly a restructuring

Accelerating the transition to a world running on

renewable electricity world requires a shift of some 2 %

of the world’s labour and capital from “dirty” to “clean”

sectors

For example shifting people:

from building coal powered utilities to building windmills

and solar panels

from building fossil powered cars, trucks and buses to

building electric vehicles

from building big homes with thin walls to building slightly

smaller homes with well-insulated walls and windows

from installing oil and gas heaters to installing electric heat-

pumps running on renewable electricity (or solar heaters)


J Randers 32


What could be done?

1. Reduce man-made greenhouse gas emissions as soon

as possible – starting in the rich world Ban investment in new coal, oil, and gas capacity from 2020 – build sun,

wind, net, storage, electric cars, and heat pumps instead.

2. Help poor nations grow faster – by copying the rapid

industrialisation of Japan, Korea and China Build the nation according to plan and not according to profitability -

using trade as a tool, not as a religion.

3. Reduce unemployment and inequity through more jobsRedistribution is more important than growth in rich nations – where 80

% of the workforce is in services. Will require stronger unions, higher

taxes on the rich, and limitations on the export of jobs.

4. Further slow population growth – especially in the rich

world – through positive incentives Means more education, better health, and free contraceptives –

supported by financial incentives for fewer kids.


J Randers 33


a. Help the world focus on the real problem (which is

the use of coal, oil and gas) - not on side issues

b. Help the world focus on real solutions (which is to

stop using fossil fuels, and redistribute income) -

not on more growth or a higher carbon price

c. Help the world understand that the real obstacle are

the incumbents (workers and owners) of the dirty

sectors, and lack of regulation of liberal markets

d. Work for ample unemployment benefits for those

who loose their job in the green shift

e. Accept that this work will not buy you praise in

business, in short-term politics, or in specialist

scientific journals (so first create a safe income!)

So, what can you do to create a better world?

will the world run out of resources? - world resources forum · source: jorgen randers, 2052,...

Documents