WS1 & 2: Horizon Scanning•Annual Key Factors Report sign-off•Quarterly Horizon Scans •Ad-hoc projects (NE bespoke scanning, Defra noise, Defra rural)

WS 3: Medium/ large scale projects•Delivery of official controls for the food and feed system (2015 and 2035) – FSA lead•Scenarios for the Future of River Basin Management (2030, 2050, 2100) – EA lead•Future of Scotland's Environment (2050) – CAMERAS lead

WS 4: Knowledge exchange and capacity building: •Website transfer•All project-related workshop/design input for WS 1-3 (CAMERAS/ Noise/ FSA/ EA projects and scanning)•Interviews – barriers and enablers to using futures research

1

RAG PROJECT STATUS 1

Medium/large scale projects

Workshops Horizon scanning Presentations/ strategic discussion

Application of existing scenarios

Bespoke scanning Training/capacity building

Green Food Project (Defra)

Rural communities evidence 2012 (Defra)

Annual Key Factors Report (Partnership)

Strategic risk assessment (FC)

Defra noise Transport and Flow of new materials in the biosphere (NERC)

Futures Toolkit

Management of marine development scenarios (MMO)

Rural communities evidence 2013 (Defra)

Monthly newsletters 2011 (x 6)

Strategic evidence assessment (Defra)

Future of the Scottish environment (CAMERAS)

Regulatory scan 2011 (EA)

The risk Exchange blog and website

Food and feed systems (FSA)

Pest and disease risk prioritisation (FC)

Quarterly newsletters 2012 (x 4)

Futures exchange 2012(NE)

Regulatory scan 2012 (EA)

Futures training (Defra noise)

River basin management (EA)

Social science research(FSA)

Quarterly newsletters 2013 (x 2)

Futures exchange 2013 (NE)

Strategic objective scan (NE)

Futures training (CAMERAS)

Futures research 2013

CAP reform (NE) Quarterly newsletter July 2013

Detection of emerging food safety risks (FSA)

Targeted follow-up scan (NE)

Futures training (Partnership)

Stakeholder engagement (MMO)

FSA emerging issues Cultural ecosystem services scan (NE)

Food chain pinch points (FSA)

4 7 13 5 1 5 4

PROJECT LOG 2

We currently have a number of projects planned for the upcoming year:

Project Lead Estimated start Estimated end

Bespoke scan (CES) Small NE June September

AKF II Large Partnership August April

Scottish env. Large CAMERAS October December

Evidence Strategy Small Defra June July

Strategic risks Small FC 2012 October

Food pinch points Small FSA August? December?

ECN network Small FC August? December?

Web transfer Small Defra June October

Visualisation tool Small Cranfield August January

Futures research 2013 Medium Cranfield October February

WORK PLAN AND CAPACITY 3

Oct

13

Nov

13

Dec

13

Jan

14

Feb

14

Mar

13

Apr 1

4

RBM (30)

FFS (10)

Futures research 2013

Bespoke scan (15)

Web transfer (20)

EIS (10)

FC (10)

Scottish env. scen. (40)

Food pinch points (15)

AKF II

Quarterly scan Quarterly scan

Final report

We estimate we have capacity for a further 6 ad hoc projects.

WORK PLAN AND CAPACITY 4

09 ǀ 10 ǀ 2013

WORKING GROUP MEETING: WORK-STREAM ONE

DR ANNA RATHE CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS AND FUTURES

Horizon scanning newsletters, partnershipPublished April 2013, July 2013 and ongoing

Impact and knowledge exchange• Disseminated to over 400 people per quarter• External parties interested in our horizon scanning approach include:

-UK College of Policing -English Heritage -Clinical Triage North Yorkshire -Science and Technology Facilities Council

Ad Hoc workshop: The noise environment in the UK to 2060, DefraReport discussing how the noise environment might change over the next 50 using the outputs of a custom designed workshop

Impact and knowledge exchange• Used by Defra to assess effectiveness of policy interventions and identify areas for future

focus• Summary presentation with key findings to aid knowledge exchange

OUTPUTS, IMPACT AND KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE 6

AKF 2012, partnershipCompleted in April 2013 and now signed off. 2013 edition now underway

Impact and knowledge exchange• Central to Working Group discussions to identify areas for future research• Formed the basis of the NE Futures Exchange• Used to inform evidence priorities at the Defra evidence investment strategy workshop • Workshops to use the AKF being organised with EA, Wales, CAMERAs

Using Social Media & Gaming to Value Cultural Ecosystem Services, NEA bespoke scan on how technologies may help us understand how people use and value cultural services provided by the natural environment

Impact and knowledge exchange• Will inform Natural England’s ecosystem approach and

climate change programme • Summary presentation with key findings to aid knowledge

exchange

OUTPUTS, IMPACT AND KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE 7

Online survey for preliminary data collection (October)Participants will rank trends (as identified by CERF) and identify links between them

Development of cross-cutting issues (October-November)Cross-cutting issues will be identified by CERF using the links identified in the survey

Cross-cutting issues workshop (November 14th)Groups will discuss the risks and opportunities cross-cutting issues present to organisations in the Defra network

Outputs (March 2014)• A report detailing trends and cross-cutting issues• A network diagram showing links between

trends to aid strategic organisational discussion

ANNUAL KEY FACTORS REPORT 2013 8

09 ǀ 10 ǀ 2013

WORKING GROUP MEETING: WORK-STREAM THREE

DR KENISHA GARNETT AND DR JOÃO DELGADOCENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS AND FUTURES

Water and the water environment scenarios - 2030 & 2050, Environment AgencyFinal report - January 2014Improve resilience and delivery in the future by testing the robustness of current and planned management approaches for River Basin Districts under a range of futures.

Impact and knowledge exchange• Engaged over 50 experts and stakeholders through 4 workshops• Organisations that contributed to data gathering include:

-Environmental Agency -DEFRA -Cranfield Water Science Institute

-River Restoration Centre -Forestry Commission

UK food and feed system - 2015 and 2035, Food Standard AgencyFinal report – November 2013Inform options appraisal process within the Official Controls Review (a high priority / high impact project). Key factors report has informed an FFS trend analysis as part of an internal strategy.

Impact and knowledge exchange• Engaged over 60 experts and stakeholders through 3 workshops.• Organisations that contributed to data gathering include:

-British Poultry Council -Food and Drink Federation -ESRC Centre for Population Change

-Natural England -British Hospital Association -Oxford University

-Bernard Mathews -British Retail Consortium -Capita

-City University -Cranfield Heath

OUTPUTS, IMPACT AND KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE 10

Future of Scotland’s Environment – 2050, CAMERAS groupFinal report - March 2014Assess resilience of strategic environmental policies and highlight priority areas for collaboration cross CAMERAS partnership.

Expected impact and knowledge exchange• Organisations expected to contribute to data gathering include:

-Scottish Environment Protection Agency -Forestry Commission Scotland-Scottish Water-Scottish Government - Marine Scotland -Science Advice for Scottish Agriculture -

RESAS -Food Standards Agency Scotland

Review of futures research methodsFinal report April 2014 (pending approval from Working Group)Inform and guide the development of future partnership projects and provide a characterisation of existing foresight research projects.

OUTPUTS, IMPACT AND KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE

Expected impact and knowledge exchange• First-cut database of existing foresight research• Provide a basis for discussing cross-disciplinary collaboration

and enable more detailed, organisationally specific analysis of outputs

• Identify future project opportunities

11

OUTPUTS, IMPACT AND KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE

Our scenarios:• assess vulnerabilities within complex

systems to safeguard against uncertainty

• increase communication and knowledge exchange between and across organisations

• draw insights from stakeholders to help make future challenges and opportunities more clear and compelling to decision-makers

12

09 ǀ 10 ǀ 2013

WORKING GROUP MEETING: WORK-STREAM FOUR

MISS HAYLEY SHAWCENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS AND FUTURES

Web transfer project• Significant upgrade• Managed transfer from August – October • Additional functionality• Easier to use interface• Interactive risk/ opportunity diagram

Barriers and enablers to using futures• Sharing good practice• Case study information• Inform and facilitate uptake of futures

research

OUTPUTS, IMPACT AND KNOWLEDGE EXCHANGE 14

• AKF ‘snapshot’ document

• Possible AKF outreach and engagement activities

FURTHER WORK 15