you can "cure stupid" asfpm 2016
TRANSCRIPT
Empowering Smart Disaster
Decision-Making through Smart
Communication
You can “cure stupid”
Premise #1
The biggest barrier to reducing flood risk and to making flood warnings more effective is that people don’t understand that disasters change things.
Premise #2
Risk communication can do more than reduce flood risk, it can save lives in flood events.
Crisis communication is more effective when it is preceded by effective risk communication.
Risk Communication Crisis Communication
IMPROVED DISASTER OUTCOMES
+
Disaster Communication
Loss reduction
Risk reduction actions
Crisis Communication
Adaptive decision making
Risk Communication
Pre-Event Event
Metacognitive Awareness
Bloom’s
Taxonomy
Ris
k C
om
mu
nic
atio
nC
risi
s C
om
mu
nic
atio
n
Thinking about disaster
Normalcy Bias
Sensemaking
Information Seeking
The three most important words:
Disasters change
things.
Normalcy Bias
Overestimating our abilities
Underestimating the impact of disaster
Availability of resources
Environmental changes
Physical changes
Fifty Years of ‘Awareness’
About half of families have taken some steps to be better prepared
Frequent events = higher preparedness rates, and better mitigation buy in
Sensemaking
Building a framework to understand an unfamiliar situation
Thinking by acting
Required for decision making
When sensemaking fails
No decision making Feeling completely overwhelmed and helpless
Anger, sense of betrayal, denial, panic
Bad decision making An inability to conceive the reality of what you are
experiencing
Continuing to make bad decisions in spite of obvious feedback
Information Seeking
It takes three messages (or a message and two confirming sources) to move most people to action
In short fuse events, there may not be time for information seeking
Risk > Crisis > Response
Effective risk communication
Reduces information seeking
Provides a framework for interpreting crisis communication
Builds skills for adaptive decision making
Research > Application > Results
1
Awareness to Action
Communicator Audience Outcome
Provide information Receive
Understand
Believe
Awareness
Reinforce w/ text, pictures,
maps, sources
Personalize
Confirm with others
Weigh credibility
Assess own ability
Intention
Clear directions
Expected consequences
Outcome expectancy
Cost/Benefit
Trust
Action
Improving Risk Communication
Teach cues to recognize the event
Give instructions in an easy to remember format
Emphasize that disasters change things
Give achievable tasks (success builds confidence)
Teach them to follow their instincts (not the crowd)
Improving Crisis Communication
Tell them who you are
Tell them what you know
Tell them what you don’t know yet, and when you will know it
Tell them how you know it
Improving Crisis Communication
Tell them what to do
protective action, achievable tasks
Tell them what will happen if they don’t
Tell them quickly
Tell them in a way they will understand
No jargon, big words or figures of speech
Acknowledge that they have a choice
Acknowledging Choice
Give (achievable) options
Make consequences clear
Acknowledging Choice
Introjection Integration Denial
ComplianceIncreased stressReduced sense of control
ComplianceReduced stressIncreased sense of control
No compliance
Performing a task because they feel they have to
Performing a task because they feel it is important
Refusing to perform a task
Premise #3
Ethical obligation is comprised of:
The responsibility to do a thing
The ability to do a thing
Questions? Ronda Oberlin, CFM CEM
Emergency Management Specialist
City of Lansing Office of Emergency Management
517-483-4110
The issue is no longer about understanding
public behavior. The challenge now is
modifying public behavior.”
Valerie Lucus-McEwen