04.2009, report, smf politbarometer, sant maral foundation

“SANT MARAL” Foundation

POLITBAROMETER 3(36), Apr 2009The “Sant Maral” foundation presents the results of the April 2009 survey. The representative

sample of 1240 respondents from the capital Ulan Bator and Hovd, Orhon, Dornod, Arhangay, Dorno-govi aymaks (split proportionally by 4 regional divisions and Ulan Bator) was collected from April 15 to April 26, 2009. Tabulations are band by Urban, Countryside and Nationwide areas when necessary.

The survey is sponsored by the Konrad Adenauer Foundation of Germany.

Director Voting intention

1. “If elections were held tomorrow, would you participate?” Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide

“yes” 81.3 77.3 79.9 “no” 10.8 14.8 12.2 (Don’t know) 7.0 7.0 7.0 (No answer) .9 .9 .9

2. “If Parliament Elections were held tomorrow, which party would you vote1 for?”

Nationwide Countryside Ulan Bator % Valid %2

MPRP 29.4 29.2 29.4 41.5Democratic Party 35.5 29.2 33.3 47.0Motherland Party .2 .2 .2 .3Civic Will Party 1.2 1.9 1.5 2.1People's Party .1 .1 .1Green Party .9 .5 .7 1.0Other Party 1.7 2.3 1.9 2.7Independent 3.5 4.2 3.7 5.2(No answer) 14.1 16.2 14.9(Don’t know) 13.3 16.2 14.4

3. “If Presidential Elections were held tomorrow, which candidate would you vote for?”

Nationwide Countryside Ulan Bator % Valid %

N. Enhbayar 38.3 32.3 36.2 49.4Ts. Elbegdorj 37.2 36.7 37.0 50.6Will not participate 5.6 8.8 6.7(No answer) 8.5 8.1 8.4(Don’t know) 10.4 14.2 11.7

1 With the expectations of the coming change in the existing Election law, the distribution in our survey is based on: one voter - one vote. 2 Excluding “No answer” and “Don’t know”

43. Voters distribution since Elections 2008 (parties)

20084

Next ElectionsMPRP DP For diff.

partiesMPRP 85.4% 3.7% 32.4%Democratic Party 10.3% 90.0% 40.4%Civil Will Party .7% 4.4%Green Party .7% 5.1%Other party 3.6% 2.4% 3.7%Independent .6% 2.7% 14.0%

5. Voters distribution since Elections 2008 (candidates)

2008Next Elections

MPRP DP For diff. parties

N. Enhbayar 89.8% 8.4% 48.6%Ts. Elbegdorj 10.2% 91.6% 51.4%

6.Think about all political parties in Mongolia: In general, do you favour one certain party?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Yes, I favour one certain party 53.9 50.8 52.8No, I do not favour one party 42.6 45.7 43.7(Don’t know) 2.7 2.6 2.7(No answer) .7 .9 .8

7. “The Favourite one” partyNationwide for all respondents Favour strength level by supporters

only

% Valid %

Rather strong

Average Rather weak

MPRP 23.2 44.6 47.9% 35.1% 4.2%Democratic Party 26.5 50.9 54.7% 30.4% 7.6%Motherland Party .1 .2 - - -Civil Will Party 1.2 2.3 46.7% 40.0% 6.7%Republican Party .3 .6 - - -New National Party .3 .6 - - -Green Party) .4 .8 - - -(No answer) 47.9Total 100

3 In tables 4 and 5 in columns MPRP and DP are those who voted only for one party. In case of mixed choice they are in next columns. Small parties and independents are not present because of small sample size.4 The existing Election law gives every voter from 2 to 4 votes that he/she may distribute between various parties and candidates. It means that Elections distribution is based on multiple choices. The Parliament proportion of seats is 20 for UB and 56 for the countryside. .

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8. Parties activity evaluation by all respondentsaverage response on a scale from – 5 (very bad) to +5 (very good)

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide MPRP .90 .83 .88Democratic Party 1.11 1.05 1.09Motherland Party -.87 -.66 -.79Civil Will Party -.18 .05 -.09Republican Party -1.02 -.92 -.98New National Party -.92 -1.04 -.97Green Party -.48 -.29 -.40

9.Mean of ALL respondents(as shown in "Barometer")

Only respondents who say that they favour this particular party

"rather strong"

"aver-age"

"rather weak"

all who fa-vour

MPRP .88 3.86 2.36 1.67 3.25Democratic Party 1.09 3.74 2.59 2.04 3.17Civil Will Party -.79

not calculated because there are not enough cases

Motherland Party -.09Republican Party -.98New National Party -.97Green Party -.40

10. In your opinion is the MPRP headed in the right or wrong direction?Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide

Right direction 36.0 31.1 34.3Wrong direction 24.7 26.5 25.3(Don’t know) 36.1 37.8 36.7(No answer) 3.2 4.6 3.7

11. In your opinion is the DP headed in the right or wrong direction?Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide

Right direction 40.0 35.7 38.5Wrong direction 15.8 22.5 18.1(Don’t know) 39.4 37.8 38.9(No answer) 4.7 3.9 4.4

12. Satisfaction with Government 13. Satisfaction with Opposition

Nationwide Nationwidevery satisfied 15.2 very satisfied 9.9fairly satisfied 42.2 fairly satisfied 38.6rather not satisfied 26.1 rather not satisfied 24.3totally unsatisfied 11.2 totally unsatisfied 12.7(Don’t know) 4.4 (Don’t know) 11.8(No answer) .9 (No answer) 2.7

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14. How do you evaluate the activity of the Party you voted for?

Party voted forAssessment

MPRP DP Different parties

Independ-ent

Very good 7.3% 7.4% 1.1% -Good 31.7% 31.0% 7.5% 15.8%Average 42.3% 41.3% 38.3% 42.1%Bad 10.1% 12.1% 17.3% -Very bad 2.5% 2.7% 5.6% 5.3%(No answer) 5.5% 4.4% 6.8% 31.6%(Don’t know) .5% 1.2% 23.3% 5.3%Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

15. Rating of socio-political or economic problems in Mongo-lia today (nationwide)

Unemployment 28.4 Standard of living 17.8 Inflation 14.0 Law enforcement 6.7 Corruption 5.8 Economy\ manufacturing 5.3 Social Justice 4.8 Education 4.6 Economic crisis 3.3 Ecology\ environment 3.1 State administration 2.3

16. How often do you feel that government policies fail to solve the most important problem you mentioned?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide o Always 49.3 38.5 45.6o Often 22.6 25.8 23.7o Sometimes 13.2 13.7 13.4o Seldom 2.5 10.0 5.1o Never 1.4 4.2 2.3o (Don’t know) 9.1 6.3 8.1o (No answer) 1.9 1.6 1.8

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17. Which political party can solve the problem best?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide MPRP 26.0 24.1 25.3Democratic Party 29.2 27.1 28.5Motherland Party .2 1.2 .6Civil Will Party 1.1 2.3 1.5Republican Party .1 .9 .4New National Party .2 .9 .2Green Party .7 4.6 .8Other 3.5 .2 3.9None 19.9 25.5 21.9

18. Problem solving capacity by two major parties(% from total sample)

MPRP DPUnemployment 8.2% 11.4%Standard of living\ poverty\ income 6.2% 5.4%Price increase\ Inflation 4.5% 4.8%Education 1.9% 2.1%Law enforcement 1.7% 2.1%Corruption 1.4% 2.7%Economy\ manufacturing\mining 1.9% 1.5%State administration .7% .3%Ecology\ Environment 1.0% .7%Social Justice 1.3% 2.3%Economic crisis 1.3% .5%

19. Which institution should play the leading role in solving this prob-lem?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Government 40.0 38.7 39.6The Parliament 18.0 21.6 19.3The president 12.1 9.7 11.3Judiciary 4.9 5.3 5.1Political parties 2.7 4.2 3.2Civil society 7.9 12.1 9.4None 2.3 2.1 2.3(Don’t know) 1.5 1.2 1.4(No answer) 10.4 5.1 8.5

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20. Government greatest success 21. Government biggest failureEconomy\ manufacturing\mining 8.5 Price increase\ Inflation 18.1Education 7.3 Growing of unemployment 14.0Corruption 6.6 Corruption 12.7Reduction of unemployment 6.0 Declining of standard of living\

poverty\ income 11.5

Agriculture 3.1 Law enforcement 8.6State administration 3.0 Social Justice 5.6Improving of standard of living\ poverty\ income 2.7 Economy\ manufacturing\min-

ing 5.6

Price increase\ Inflation 2.5 State administration 4.5Social Justice 1.5 Ecology\ Environment 3.4Social policy 1.4 Education 1.5Law enforcement 1.3 Economic crisis 1.5Ecology\ Environment 1.2

22. How do you approve or disapprove the following statement: “In principal you can trust that the government is doing the right things for citizens”?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Fully approve 10.8 6.5 9.3 Rather approve 44.0 39.4 42.4 Rather disapprove 25.2 34.6 28.5 Totally disapprove 12.7 13.5 13.0 (Don’t know) 5.8 3.7 5.1 (No answer) 1.5 2.3 1.8

23. Unemployment has been a major problem for many people in past years. Some people think that this is only a temporary matter and that economic progress in the future will take care of the problem. Other people think that the government needs to intervene and take appropri-ate measures to reduce unemployment. What do you think?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Economic growth will provide sufficient employment in the future 27.1 28.1 27.4

Economic growth alone is not enough - the government has to take action to re-duce unemployment.

62.4 60.1 61.6

(Don’t know) 9.1 9.5 9.3(No answer) 1.4 2.3 1.7

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24. Some people think that government should take actions to reduce income differences between the poor and rich, but others think that the government should not interfere. What is your opinion?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide The government has to eliminate income differences 42.0 31.1 38.2

The government has to take moderate action to reduce income 38.9 47.6 41.9

The government should not interfere 6.7 9.0 7.5Spontaneously: ( it may interfere, or may not interfere) 7.0 6.0 6.7

(Don’t know) 4.6 4.9 4.7(No answer) .7 1.4 1.0

25. If you think about government policy since its formation, do you think that it was characterized most by:

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Support for the rich (for example through preferential fiscal and land ownership policy that benefit mostly the rich people)

25.3 24.4 25.0

Support for the middle class 5.6 8.6 6.6Support for the poor (for example through “child money” and other welfare programs that benefit mostly the poor people)

16.6 13.2 15.4

Self-interested politicians and lack of con-cern for society at large 28.8 32.3 30.0

None of the above: I think that policies were fair and for the benefit of all people 8.8 6.7 8.1


26. Through recent development of the mining sector Mongolia has gained considerable wealth. How should this money be used?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide There should be increased social pro-grams to give immediate relief to the poor 15.6 12.1 14.4

There should be long-term social pro-grams through more investment in educa-tion, health, etc.

22.9 28.5 24.8

All citizen should equally benefit through direct disbursement 19.7 22.0 20.5

Funds should be invested by the state to improve economic development 37.5 30.9 35.2

(Don’t know) 3.7 3.7 3.7(No answer) .7 2.8 1.5

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27. Present economic situation in Mongolia

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide very good .4 - .2 good 4.7 2.3 3.9 not good, nor bad 40.0 34.8 38.2 bad 41.2 48.3 43.6 very bad 9.4 12.5 10.5 (Don’t know) 3.5 2.1 3.0 (No answer) .9 - .6

28. The economic situation is

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Improving 10.4 10.0 10.2 Stagnating 42.9 47.8 44.6 In decline 36.5 36.2 36.4 (Don’t know) 9.6 4.9 8.0 (No answer) .6 1.2 .8

29. In five years the economic situation will be

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Much better 6.3 4.6 5.7 Slightly better 43.8 41.3 42.9 Same 16.2 18.8 17.1 Slightly worse 5.9 7.2 6.4 Much worse 2.7 3.0 2.8 (Don’t know) 23.1 23.0 23.1 (No answer) 2.0 2.1 2.0

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Systemic part

30. Importance of democratic values

Important5 Not important All people are equally treated by the law 89.5 2.5 The state provides for social justice in a mar-

ket economy87.3 3.4

Everybody can express his/her opinion freely 85.3 6.9 Social differences are kept as small as pos-

sible84.5 6

There is a free, democratic market 84.4 6.4 Men and women have equal rights 82.9 7.7 Everybody has the right to enter one’s de-

sired profession82.7 7.9

All people have equal educational opportunit-ies

80 9.6

Income differences are kept as small as pos-sible

79.6 8.9

Everybody has the freedom to decide about his property

78.3 9.7

Everybody can participate in the activities of their choice during one’s free time

77.7 13.2

The state provides as many social security services as possible

73.1 17.5

Media and research are uncensored in Mon-golia

66.4 18.2

Everybody can believe in what he/she wants 65.4 24.9 I can travel wherever I want 64.4 25.2 All parties have an equal chance to come into

government60.4 24.6

31. How much are you satisfied with the Democracy and present polit-ical system?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Satisfied 31.4 10.9 24.3 Rather satisfied 37.3 48.7 41.3 Rather not satisfied 16.6 21.1 18.1 Not satisfied 6.9 13.7 9.3 (Don’t know) 4.9 2.3 4.0 (No answer) 2.8 3.2 3.0

5 Important combines both ‘very important” and “rather important” options while not important includes “rather not important” and “not important”. “Don’t know” and “no answer” are not included.

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32.Thinking about…Agree Disagree

The state should guarantee the right to a job for every-body

68.4 15.2

The rich and powerful prevent other citizens from earn-ing equal benefits from the wealth they created

62.8 17.8

The key sectors of economy should be state owned 62.4 19.3 No matter who governs the country, circumstances for

the common citizen will remain the same61.9 20.3

The state should guarantee a minimal standard of living for everybody, if one wants more, he should provide for himself

57.0 22.0

The two large political parties, the MPRP and DP, are the same when it comes to self-interest

48.5 30.7

It is enough if one participates in election regularly 43.0 35.7

Contemporary society no longer has strong ideals that guide the people

41.7 31.0

In democracy not all things go the way one would like, but there is no better state model

41.1 30.0

I am against dictatorship but support a government with a strong hand

33.1 42.6

In every democratic society there are conflicts that can only be solved through violence

28.6 43.4

Under certain circumstances dictatorship is better than democracy

27.7 48.9

Only through socialism can all problems be solved 19.6 51.5 Women should care for the family and household and

leave politics to men16.7 68.9

33. Some people think that there is too much democracy in Mongolia and that a dictatorship would make things better. Others think that we have a kind of dictatorship with no real democratic values. In your opin-ion, where does Mongolia belong on the spectrum?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide We have too much democracy 10.9 10.9 10.9We have a moderate level of democracy 22.1 23.7 22.7We are at a crossroads 33.9 29.0 32.2We have a moderate level of dictatorship 13.6 22.5 16.7We are too dictatorial 6.7 5.8 6.4(Don’t know) 11.2 5.3 9.2(No answer) 1.6 2.8 2.0

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34. In your opinion, do political parties represent public opinion?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Yes 24.7 20.9 23.4No 58.2 65.2 60.6(Don’t know) 14.7 10.9 13.4(No answer) 2.3 3.0 2.6

35. In your opinion, how strong is voters' influence on political decision making?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Very strong 16.6 9.7 14.2Rather strong 31.1 31.6 31.3Rather little 29.3 29.9 29.5None 9.8 14.6 11.5(Don’t know) 10.0 8.1 9.4(No answer) 3.2 6.0 4.2

36. What do you think about our society? In general, is there more justice or more injustice?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide There is more justice 4.1 1.2 3.1There is more injustice 72.9 76.3 74.1Spontaneous:(Sometime more justice and other time more injustice) 18.0 20.0 18.7

(Don’t know) 4.6 1.6 3.5(No answer) .4 .9 .6

37. Confidence in state institutions (nationwide)

President Parliament Judiciary system

Gvt admin

Political parties

Civil soci-ety

confident 31.3 17.3 12.0 20.6 8.5 13.0rather confident 33.4 38.5 26.6 40.7 27.9 31.5rather not confident 17.5 24.4 29.4 22.4 29.7 21.6not confident 9.8 11.4 21.5 8.5 19.5 18.7(Don’t know) 4.4 4.5 6.5 4.0 9.7 11.0(No answer) 3.5 4.0 4.0 3.6 4.8 4.3

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38. Which political system is more suitable for Mongolia? Could you provide your assessment of its governance efficiency?

a. Having a strong leader who does not have to bother with the parlia-ment and elections

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide

Good 30.7 20.4 27.1Rather good 25.3 26.9 25.9Rather bad 10.3 13.0 11.2Bad 8.3 12.8 9.8(Don’t know) 22.0 20.4 21.5(No answer) 3.5 6.5 4.5

b. Team of independent from the government professionals or experts developing state policy (elitist governance)



c. Rule by military, intelligence and police forces Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide


d. Democratic system: governance through democratically elected rep-resentatives of the people



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39. In your opinion, how strong the role of the religion should be in

Your life Education Politics Very strong 6.5 7.9 2.4Strong 11.0 10.0 8.2Moderate 33.3 17.4 16.5Little 20.8 16.4 18.5No role 20.0 31.5 34.9(Don’t know) 4.7 12.2 14.4(No answer) 3.7 4.6 5.2

40. Which country is the best partner for Mongolia?No names were suggested, each respondent could mention up to two countries.

1 choice 2 choice Russia 50.6 6.1 China 2.4 16.9 USA 12.3 14.2 European Union6 2.9 4.5 Japan 6.0 9.1 South Korea 3.5 7.5 Others .6 .9 (Don’t know) 3.6 - (No answer) 18.1 40.7 Total 100% 100%

41.Which country is the best partner for Mongolia?Cumulative percentage, valid cases only.

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Russia 77.0% 63.6% 72.3% China 21.4% 30.8% 24.7% USA 31.7% 37.5% 33.7% European Union 10.8% 7.0% 9.5% Japan 16.6% 24.3% 19.3% South Korea 13.3% 15.2% 14.0% Others 1.4% 2.6% 1.9%

6 Includes all mentioned EU countries13

42.With which country citizens Mongolians are better in communication and cooperation? No names were suggested, each respondent could mention up to two countries.

1 choice 2 choice Russia 35.9 5.2 China 8.6 9.0 USA 5.7 5.9 European Union7 1.5 2.6 Japan 4.0 5.7 South Korea 14.6 10.6 Others .2 .2 (Don’t know) 4.8 - (No answer) 24.8 61.0 Total 100% 100%

43. With which country citizens Mongolians are better in communica-tion and cooperation? Cumulative percentage, valid cases only.

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Russia 62.1% 51.3% 58.2% China 20.6% 32.9% 24.9% USA 15.6% 18.1% 16.5% European Union 5.9% 5.5% 5.7% Japan 13.1% 14.8% 13.7% South Korea 35.5% 36.1% 35.7% Others - 1.3% .5%

7 Includes all mentioned EU countries14

Personal part

44. How proud are you to be a Mongolian?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Very proud 88.0 68.0 81.0Rather proud 8.0 27.6 14.8Not that proud 1.9 2.8 2.2Not proud at all .4 .2 .3(Don’t know) 1.0 .7 .9(No answer) .7 .7 .7

45. How you evaluate your nearest future?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Optimistic 81.1 81.2 81.1Pessimistic 8.4 7.7 8.1(Don’t know) 9.3 9.3 9.3(No answer) 1.2 1.9 1.5

46. Present personal and family’s life level situation


Very good .6 .7 .6Good 12.9 11.1 12.3Partly good/partly bad 56.7 62.4 58.7Bad 24.5 20.4 23.1Very bad 4.2 3.7 4.0(Don’t know) .5 .5 .5(No answer) .6 1.2 .8

47. Life level development comparing to last year

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide better 11.2 10.7 11.0the same 46.5 45.7 46.2worsened 40.4 40.8 40.6(Don’t know) 1.6 1.6 1.6(No answer) .2 1.2 .6

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48. How much are you interested in politics?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide very much interested 14.5 6.5 11.7interested 32.3 35.3 33.3somehow interested 24.4 24.8 24.5rather not interested 18.8 24.1 20.6not interested 8.9 8.6 8.8Don’t know) .7 .7 .7(No answer) .5 - .3

49. What do you think, does your future depend on your own achieve-ments, the State, or on other forces (like churches, trade unions, firms, the press, TV/radio, communities, business relations), that could influ-ence the economy?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide Rather on myself 45.5 48.5 46.5Rather on the state 27.2 26.7 27.0Rather on other forces 9.1 7.0 8.4(Don’t know) 15.5 14.4 15.1(No answer) 2.7 3.5 3.0

50. When comparing your life with the life of your parents, what would you say?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide My parents achieved much more than I will be able to do 28.4 25.5 27.4

There is no significant difference, we are almost equal 37.2 37.8 37.4

I will achieve much more than my parents 22.4 24.6 23.1(Don’t know) 9.0 9.0 9.0(No answer) 3.0 3.0 3.0

51. Due to both just and unjust circumstances in a society, there are both winners and losers among the different social groups. In your opinion, to which group do you belong?

Countryside Ulan Bator Nationwide I consider myself rather a loser 44.0 33.2 40.2I consider myself rather a winner 5.7 6.7 6.0Spontaneous:(Sometimes I am win-ner, sometimes a loser) 34.2 37.1 35.2

(Don’t know) 12.4 16.7 13.9

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(No answer) 3.7 6.3 4.6

52. In times of economic difficulties some people depend on the gov-ernment to come to their assistance; others believe they can solve the problem by themselves. Do you expect help from the state in solving your problems?


I don’t need any help 9.9 10.9 10.2I need help only to find a job 30.7 26.5 29.2I need financial support 31.5 32.7 31.9I don’t expect anything from the gov-ernment 20.1 23.9 21.5


53. If the government fails to meet your expectations, what would you do? (most important)


I will go to court 3.2 .5 2.3I will join street protests 5.1 6.3 5.5I will join/support civil organizations that can protect my rights 17.9 18.6 18.1

I will vote against the government in elections 14.6 19.7 16.4

I will join the opposition party 2.7 2.3 2.6Do nothing and wait for matters to improve 27.9 25.5 27.1


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54. “Whom of the prominent persons in the country would you like to name; who, in your opinion, should play an important role in politics?” (No names were suggested, each respondent could mention up to three persons. Responses are listed here in a ranking order by percentage of cases. The cumulative percentage could be up to 300%.)

Top 10 politicians

55. in Ulan Bator 56. in Countryside1. Bayar S. 43.3 1. Elbegdorj 40.62. Elbegdorj 41 2. Enhbayar 40.53. Enhbayar 31.7 3. Bayar S. 35.84. Bat Uul 18.9 4. Gonchigdorj 11.25. Bagabandi 12.8 5. Bat-Uul 11.26. Altai 9.9 6. Gundalay 11.17. Niamdorj 9.9 7. Bagabandi 9.88. Gundalay 9 8. Amarjargal 7.39. Oyun 7 9. Oyun 8.310.Amarjargal 6.4 10.Niamdorj 5.0

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04.2009, report, smf politbarometer, sant maral foundation

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