OECD/IEA 2014

IEA Technology Roadmaps for Solar Electricity

2014 Editions

Maria van der Hoeven

Executive Director

International Energy Agency

29 September, 2014

OECD/IEA 2013

An Energy Revolution is needed

2011 6DS 2DS hi-Ren

Generation today: Fossil fuels: 68%

Renewables: 20%

Generation 2DS 2050: Renewables: 65 - 79%

Fossil fuels: 20 - 12%

OECD/IEA 2014

PV ahead, STE (CSP) lagging behind

PV:

Massive cost reductions Also for distributed

generation

STE:

Flexible generation not yet fully valued

Progress in 2013Old Roadmap

Milestones for 2020 (GW) To be reached

PV 200 5 years ahead

STE 140 > 7 years later

OECD/IEA 2014

Complementary roles of PV and STE

Thanks to thermal storage, STE is generated on demand when the sun sets while demand often peaks

OECD/IEA 2014

New roadmap vision for solar electricity: PV + STE

Together, PV and STE could become the largest source of electricity worldwide before 2050

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Solar PV Solar CSP Share of PV Share of PV+STE

OECD/IEA 2014

STE vs. PV generation by region in 2050

China alone accounts for 37% of global PV deployment

STE eventually dominates in Africa and the Middle East; it comes close to PV in India and the United States

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OECD/IEA 2014

Selected messages to policy makers

1. Set or update long-term targets Consistent with overall energy strategies Taking into account past and future cost reductions

2. Develop market designs in a system-approach, e.g: Fair rules for residential and commercial PV rooftops Time-of-delivery remuneration to take full advantage

of dispatchable and flexible generation from STE

3. De-risk financing with predictable policies Both capital-intensive technologies Policy predictability most effective and efficient way

to reduce risk, thereby improving competitiveness

OECD/IEA 2014

IEA technology roadmaps for solarelectricity a closer look

Paolo Frankl & Cdric PhilibertRenewable Energy Division

OECD/IEA 2014

IEA Technology Roadmaps

OECD/IEA 2014

Solars share varies significantly by regionRegional Power Generation Mixes by 2050

OECD/IEA 2014

Contributions to cumulative CO2emission cuts

Technologyshares 2015-

2050 (over 6DS)

PV STE

OECD/IEA 2014

Projected LCOEs of PV and STEUSD/MWh 2013-15 2020 2030 2040 2050

Utility-scale PV

Mini 119 96 56 45 42

Avg 177 133 81 68 54

Maxi 318 250 139 109 97

Rooftop PV

Mini 135 108 63 51 45

Avg 201 157 102 91 78

Maxi 539 422 231 180 159

STE

Mini 146 116 86 69 64

Avg 168 130 98 77 71

Maxi 213 169 112 101 94

CO2 price (USD/tCO2) 46 115 152 160Note: all costs are calculated with 8% weighted average capital costs for new-built plants/systems

Socket parity emerging as potential deployment driver for distributed PV

Economic attractiveness from offsetting electricity bill requires self-using most of the PV electricity Currently limits potential, in particular for households

Reaching socket parity is a driver for private actors But PV may still have significant impact on total system costs, in particular

depending on allocation of fixed network costs

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LCOE

VariablePortion ofResidentialRate

LCOE of residential PV vs variable portion of electricity tariff

PV growth by sector

Electricity from PV systems progressively competitive on several markets

Distributed PV represents more than half of total deployment

Note: all costs are calculated with 8% weighted average capital costs

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utility industrial commercial residential off-grid Average LCOE (rooftop) Average LCOE (rooftop)

Integrating large shares of PV is a challenge

Flexibility of other power system components

Grids Generation

Storage Demand Side

High shares of PV (and wind) require more flexible power systems

Expected evolution of the net load of a typical spring day in California

Detailed actions and milestones

POLICY AND FINANCE

- Set / update long-term targets- Predictable policy framework to de-risk

financing

- In new & emerging PV markets- Permitting and connecting

- In mature PV markets- Progressively expose to market

signals- Facilitate distributed PV generation

and self-consumption

OECD/IEA 2014

LCOE from new-built plants and STE generation

OECD/IEA 2014

Detailed actions and milestones

Technology

Innovative HTF

Hybrid PV-CSP

Supercritical

R&D Solar Fuels

Policy Framework

VALUE of STE