22 july 2020 hsie results daily hsie results daily results daily... · ipru to reduce with a...

22 July 2020 HSIE Results Daily

HSIE Results Daily

HSIE Research is also available on Bloomberg ERH HDF <GO> & Thomson Reuters

Contents

Results Review

Axis Bank: We maintain a BUY on Axis Bank with a target price of Rs 565.

We have slightly reduced our earnings estimates, as we build slower loan

growth, lower NIMs, and slightly higher provisions. Improved risk practices

(post CEO change), a strong balance sheet (CRAR ~17.5%, PCR ~75%), and a

strong liability franchise will hold the bank in good stead. Our constructive

stance on AXSB ties in with our broad thesis that large private banks with

strong balance sheets and deposit franchises will emerge stronger.

Hindustan Unilever: HUL clocked revenue growth of 4% YoY, primarily

led by the GSK acquisition. Its domestic consumer business (ex-GSK) saw a

decline of 7% YoY. Growth in the Hygiene & Nutrition business (80% mix)

was resilient at 6% YoY, while discretionary (15% mix)/OOH (5% mix)

declined by 45/69% YoY. Gross margin dipped 222bps YoY, despite GSK

being GM accretive and soft crude basket. However, cost management

initiatives supported the EBITDA margin. The company saw sequential

improvement in demand in May and June, but overall sentiment remains

weak on account of job losses and return of lockdowns in several states. The

Discretionary and OOH categories are expected to remain weak in FY21. We

maintain our below-consensus EPS estimate for FY21/FY22/FY23. We value

HUL at 50x P/E on Jun-22E EPS and derive a target price of Rs 2,016.

Maintain REDUCE on a muted absolute growth trajectory and unfavourable

risk-reward.

ICICI Prudential Life: We like IPRU’s re-engineered business model, which

is focused on a more diversified product mix (increasing PAR + NPAR)

along with an increased protection share. We, however, remain wary of the

current COVID-19 situation and believe that outlook for FY21E remains

challenged and build in a 16.3% decline in FY21E VNB; post which we

expect VNB to grow at FY21E-23E CAGR of 18.5%. In our opinion, a difficult

FY21E is most likely to delay achieving the goal of doubling VNB by FY23E.

We downgrade our rating on IPRU to REDUCE with a DCF-derived target

price of Rs 445 (Mar-21E EV + 23.6x Mar-22E VNB). The stock is currently

trading at FY21/22E P/EV of 2.5/2.2x and P/VNB of 30.2/23.3x. Key risks are

lower-than-expected growth, protection share or higher mortality as a result

of the pandemic.

SBI Life Insurance: Over FY21E we expect covid-19 and changes in personal

taxation to cause significant disruption to insurance sales (FY21E APE: -

13.1% YoY). We however take a longer term view on the business and

appreciate the strong distribution footprint of its parent SBI (24k+ branches),

improving protection share (1QFY21: 12.6%, +137bps YoY), lowest operating

cost ratios (1QFY21: 10.1%). We expect SBILIFE to deliver healthy FY20-23E

VNB CAGR of 6.6% and RoEVs of ~13.4-15.4% over FY21-23E. We retain our

BUY rating on SBILIFE with an unchanged TP of Rs 975 (Mar-21E EV + 28.9x

Mar-22E VNB). The stock is currently trading at FY21/22E P/EV of 2.8/2.5x

and P/VNB of 31.2/25.1x. Lower growth, renewals, and protection share are

key risks.

HSIE Research Team

[email protected]

Page | 2

HSIE Results Daily

Axis Bank

Conservatism hits earnings

We maintain a BUY on Axis Bank with a target price of Rs 565. We have

slightly reduced our earnings estimates, as we build slower loan growth,

lower NIMs, and slightly higher provisions. Improved risk practices (post

CEO change), a strong balance sheet (CRAR ~17.5%, PCR ~75%), and a strong

liability franchise will hold the bank in good stead. Our constructive stance

on AXSB ties in with our broad thesis that large private banks with strong

balance sheets and deposit franchises will emerge stronger.

1QFY21 highlights: NII and PPOP growth were healthy at 19.5% and 15.8%

respectively. PAT dipped 18.8% YoY to Rs 11.1bn. However, adjusted for the

net impact of changes in accounting policy (NII reserve, fee recognition and

provisions), PAT would have been Rs 16.3bn (+18.7% YoY).

Moratorium trends: Surprisingly, AXSB’s moratorium (by value) dipped to

9.7% of loans (25-28% of loans in 4QFY20). This sharp drop is encouraging

but odd. As per the management, borrowers representing 90% of the second

moratorium formed part of the first moratorium, and 70-80% of the

borrowers who had availed of the first one paid in June. The second

moratorium was subject to stricter conditions. Moratorium trends will be

keenly watched.

Asset quality: 21% of the gross slippages (1.6% ann.) were recognised as per

the bank’s credit and risk assessment criteria (technically not NPAs). 77% of

corporate slippages were from the BB and below rated pool of loans. The

pool itself shrank 14.4/1.7% to Rs 64.2bn (1.1% of loans). Downgrades into

the pool were Rs 13.3bn. We factor in slippages of ~3.3% over FY21-22E.

Provisions were 15.8% higher, led by a 21.7% growth in LLPs to Rs 35.1bn.

AXSB made COVID-19 related provisions of Rs 7.3bn in 1Q (total stock Rs

37.3bn). PCR increased 576bps QoQ to 74.8%. We build in elevated LLPs at

1.93% over FY21-22E.

Financial summary YE Mar

(Rs bn)

1Q

FY21

1Q

FY20

YoY

(%)

4Q

FY20

QoQ

(%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E

NII 69.9 58.4 19.5% 68.1 2.6% 217.1 252.1 261.3 300.6

PPOP 58.4 58.9 -0.8% 58.5 -0.1% 190.1 234.4 245.7 279.9

PAT 11.1 13.7 -18.8% (13.9) -180.1% 46.8 16.3 87.9 121.9

EPS (Rs) 3.9 5.2 -24.6% (4.9) -180.1% 18.2 5.8 31.1 43.2

ROAE (%)

7.2 2.1 9.8 12.2

ROAA (%)

0.63 0.19 0.93 1.18

ABVPS (Rs)

215 268 291 344

P/ABV (x)

1.97 1.57 1.45 1.21

P/E (x) 23.4 73.2 13.5 9.7

Change in estimates

Rs bn FY21E FY22E

Old New Change Old New Change

Loan 6,329 6,234 -1.5% 7,227 7,178 -0.7%

NIM (%) 3.4 3.3 -2 bps 3.4 3.4 -1 bps

NII 262.6 261.3 -0.5% 302.7 300.6 -0.7%

PPOP 247.5 245.7 -0.7% 281.3 279.9 -0.5%

PAT 92.8 87.9 -5.3% 122.8 121.9 -0.8%

LLP (bps) 2.0 2.1 10 bps 1.7 1.7 2 bps

ABVPS (Rs) 292 291 -0.7% 341 344 1.0%

Source: Bank, HSIE Research

BUY

CMP (as on 21 July 2020) Rs 446

Target Price Rs 565

NIFTY 11,162

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating BUY BUY

Price Target Rs 565 Rs 565

EPS % FY21E FY22E

-5.3 -0.8

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code AXSB IN

No. of Shares (mn) 2,822

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 1,259/16,873

6m avg traded value (Rs mn) 14,295

52 Week high / low Rs 766/285

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 6.1 (37.8) (38.8)

Relative (%) (17.7) (29.6) (37.8)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Mar-20 Jun-20

Promoters 16.0 16.0

FIs & Local MFs 22.8 22.3

FPIs 45.6 46.0

Public & Others 15.6 15.7

Pledged Shares 0.0 0.0

Source : BSE

Pledged shares as % of total shares

Darpin Shah

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7328

Aakash Dattani

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7337

Punit Bahlani

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7354

Page | 3

HSIE Results Daily

Hindustan Unilever

In-line result; margins disappoint

HUL clocked revenue growth of 4% YoY, primarily led by the GSK

acquisition. Its domestic consumer business (ex-GSK) saw a decline of 7%

YoY. Growth in the Hygiene & Nutrition business (80% mix) was resilient at

6% YoY, while discretionary (15% mix)/OOH (5% mix) declined by 45/69%

YoY. Gross margin dipped 222bps YoY, despite GSK being GM accretive and

soft crude basket. However, cost management initiatives supported the

EBITDA margin. The company saw sequential improvement in demand in

May and June, but overall sentiment remains weak on account of job losses

and return of lockdowns in several states. The Discretionary and OOH

categories are expected to remain weak in FY21. We maintain our below-

consensus EPS estimate for FY21/FY22/FY23. We value HUL at 50x P/E on Jun-

22E EPS and derive a target price of Rs 2,016. Maintain REDUCE on a muted

absolute growth trajectory and unfavourable risk-reward.

▪ Slight revenue beat: Revenue grew by 4% YoY (+7% in 1QFY20 and -9% in

4QFY20) vs the estimate of +1% YoY. LTL domestic consumer business (ex-

GSK) saw sales dip by 7% YoY (vs our estimate of 9% YoY decline) due to an

8% YoY volume decline. Home Care/PC witnessed a revenue decline of

2/12% YoY, while F&R grew by 51% YoY. Ex-GSK, F&R declined 4% YoY.

GSK saw 5% YoY growth.

▪ Weak gross margin, in-line EBITDA margin: The gross margin dip of

222bps YoY (flat in 1QFY20 and +142bps in 4QFY20) was higher than our

expectation (+96 bps, on account of adverse product mix and raw material

inflation. Employee/other expenses grew 31/19% YoY while A&P dipped

31% YoY, leading to the overall EBITDA remaining flat YoY (+18% in

1QFY20 and -11% in 4QFY20), in line with our estimates. EBITDAM dipped

by 113bps YoY. LTL EBITDA margin dipped by 170bps YoY. However, the

company saw a benefit of 60bps YoY from GSK. EBIT margins for Home

Care/PC dipped by 139/152bps YoY while F&R margin expanded by 24bps

YoY. Lower tax rate led to APAT growth of 7% YoY (+12% in 1QFY20 and -

2% in 4QFY20) vs estimate of +9% YoY.

Call takeaways: (1) Management is currently uncertain about sustainable

rural recovery; (2) Q1 Sales saw the benefit of ~6% distributor up-stocking

indicating weak consumer offtake; (3) the company saw 80% of the portfolio

gaining market share; (4) foods (organic) growth was in double digits; (5)

Capex plan for the next year remains unchanged.

Quarterly/Annual Financial summary

YE Mar (Rs mn) 1Q

FY21

1Q

FY20

YoY

(%)

4Q

FY20

QoQ

(%) FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Sales 1,05,600 1,01,140 4.4 90,110 17.2 3,97,830 4,64,922 5,01,942 5,40,406

EBITDA 25,390 25,520 (0.5) 19,600 29.5 98,610 1,17,922 1,31,509 1,44,815

APAT 18,730 17,510 7.0 15,630 19.8 68,604 83,258 92,569 1,01,103

Diluted EPS (Rs) 8.0 8.1 (1.4) 7.2 10.4 31.7 35.4 39.4 43.0

P/E (x) 68.8 61.5 55.3 50.7

EV / EBITDA (x)

47.2 42.6 38.0 32.2

RoCE (%)

72.2 31.6 21.2 22.6

Source: Company, HSIE Research

REDUCE

CMP (as on 21 Jul 2020) Rs 2,317

Target Price Rs 2,016

NIFTY 11,162

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating REDUCE REDUCE

Price Target Rs 2,016 Rs 2,016

EPS % FY21E FY22E

0% 0%

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code HUVR IN


MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 5,442/72,924


52 Week high / low Rs 2,614/1,659


3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 0.0 12.8 34.7

Relative (%) (23.8) 21.0 35.8


Apr-20 June-20

Promoters 61.90 61.90


FPIs 12.04 14.81



Source : BSE


Varun Lohchab

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7334

Naveen Trivedi

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7324

Aditya Sane

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7336

Page | 4

HSIE Results Daily

ICICI Prudential Life

Protection aids margins

We like IPRU’s re-engineered business model, which is focused on a more

diversified product mix (increasing PAR + NPAR) along with an increased

protection share. We, however, remain wary of the current COVID-19

situation and believe that outlook for FY21E remains challenged and build in

a 16.3% decline in FY21E VNB; post which we expect VNB to grow at FY21E-

23E CAGR of 18.5%. In our opinion, a difficult FY21E is most likely to delay

achieving the goal of doubling VNB by FY23E. We downgrade our rating on

IPRU to REDUCE with a DCF-derived target price of Rs 445 (Mar-21E EV +

23.6x Mar-22E VNB). The stock is currently trading at FY21/22E P/EV of

2.5/2.2x and P/VNB of 30.2/23.3x. Key risks are lower-than-expected growth,

protection share or higher mortality as a result of the pandemic.

1QFY21 highlights: The lockdown and partial working conditions resulted

in total APE declining 44.0/58.3% YoY/QoQ to Rs 8.2bn. Protection share

increased to 26.0% (+1,140/820bps YoY/QoQ) as the individual savings

business saw a steep decline of 54.5% YoY. Both retail and group protection

held steady on a YoY basis while, within savings, the linked business was

down to 43.6% (-2,750bps YoY). Persistency deteriorated 50 to 440bps across

cohorts as a result of lockdown and partial working conditions. Renewal

premiums growth was weak at just 2.4% YoY. AUM growth was weak at

just 3.6% YoY to Rs 1.7tn, while solvency improved to 205% (+1100bps YoY).

Increased protection and non-linked savings share of 50.4% drove VNBM to

24.4% and VNB to Rs 2.0bn (-35.0/57.2% YoY/QoQ). The company stated that

increased reinsurance costs hit protection margins in 1QFY21, and would

improve 2QFY21 onwards as the company had repriced the product.

Management kept strong vigil on costs as costs/TWRP was contained at

8.8% (-250bps YoY). 1QFY21 PAT was at Rs 2.9bn (+0.7/60.3% YoY/QoQ).

Outlook: We expect FY21E to be a muted year as APE is expected to decline

18.7% YoY. Increased protection and non-linked business in the mix are

expected to drive VNBM to 22.4% (VNB of Rs 13.4bn, -16.3% YoY).

Quarterly financial summary

(Rs bn) 1Q

FY21

1Q

FY20

YoY

(%)

4Q

FY20

QoQ

(%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

NBP 16.1 22.9 -29.7 42.1 -61.8 103.6 124.9 107.9 125.1 146.4

APE 8.2 14.7 -44.0 19.7 -58.3 78.0 73.8 60.0 68.6 78.6

VNB 2.0 3.1 -51.5 4.7 -62.5 13.3 16.1 13.4 16.2 18.9

VNB Margin (%) 24.4 21.0 340bps 23.8 60bps 17.0 21.7 22.4 23.6 24.0

EV

216.2 230.3 258.9 293.1 330.1

P/EV (x)

2.9 2.8 2.5 2.2 1.9

P/VNB (x)

33.7 26.1 30.2 23.3 18.2

ROEV (%)

19.6 8.4 12.7 14.4 14.4


Change in estimates

(Rs bn) FY21E

Revised

FY21E

Old

Change

% / bps

FY22E

Revised

FY22E

Old

Change

% / bps

APE 60.0 60.1 -0.2 68.6 68.5 0.1

VNB 13.4 14.5 -7.6 16.2 17.0 -4.7

VNB Margin (%) 22.4% 24.2% -180 23.6% 24.8% -120

EV 258.9 260.0 -0.4 293.1 295.1 -0.7


REDUCE

CMP (as on 21 Jul 2020) Rs 443

Target Price Rs 445

NIFTY 11,162

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating ADD REDUCE


VNB % FY21E FY22E

-7.6 -4.7

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code IPRU IN


MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 636/8,521


52 Week high / low Rs 538/222


3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 19.6 (9.4) 16.7

Relative (%) (4.2) (1.2) 17.7


Mar-20 Jun-20

Promoters 75.0 73.5


FPIs 13.3 15.1



Source : BSE


Madhukar Ladha, CFA

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7323

Page | 5

HSIE Results Daily

SBI Life Insurance

In-line performance

Over FY21E we expect covid-19 and changes in personal taxation to cause

significant disruption to insurance sales (FY21E APE: -13.1% YoY). We

however take a longer term view on the business and appreciate the strong

distribution footprint of its parent SBI (24k+ branches), improving protection

share (1QFY21: 12.6%, +137bps YoY), lowest operating cost ratios (1QFY21:

10.1%). We expect SBILIFE to deliver healthy FY20-23E VNB CAGR of 6.6%

and RoEVs of ~13.4-15.4% over FY21-23E. We retain our BUY rating on

SBILIFE with an unchanged TP of Rs 975 (Mar-21E EV + 28.9x Mar-22E VNB).

The stock is currently trading at FY21/22E P/EV of 2.8/2.5x and P/VNB of

31.2/25.1x. Lower growth, renewals, and protection share are key risks.

1QFY21 highlights: Total APE at Rs 12.7bn declined 32.1/53.1% YoY as

lockdown and partial working conditions impacted sales. While share of

protection in total APE improved 137/79bps YoY/QoQ to 12.6%,

Retail/group protection declined 36.4/10.4% YoY/QoQ. ULIP declined 50.8%

YoY resulting in its share reducing to 48.0% (-1,828bps YoY) and consequent

improvement in non-linked savings business share to 26.8% (+966bps YoY).

Non-linked savings business grew 6.3% YoY with NPAR savings growing to

3.6x YoY.

Persistency deteriorated sequentially across all buckets except 61st month as

renewals lagged. Strong renewal premiums growth at 29.4% YoY to Rs

45.8bn and AUM growth of 19.3% YoY to Rs 1.8tn showcase high quality of

business underwritten. Solvency improved to 239% (+2,200bps YoY) as

equity markets bounced back.

Adj. VNB margin at 20.1% were higher by 20bps YoY but ~100bps lower

than our estimates. Margins were lower mainly due to 1) negative impact of

change in operating assumptions of (-120bps- largely due to re-insurance

price hike), 2) mix change (+620bps), and 3) change in economic

assumptions (-420bps, mainly risk free rate).

Outlook: We expect FY21E to be a challenging year for the SBILIFE. We

expect company to obtain approvals and launch newer high margin

products over 2QFY21 and hence improvement in metrics is more likely

over 2HFY21E. Overall we expect FY21E to be a muted year for the company

with FY21E APE/VNB expected to decline 13.1/11.7% YoY.

Quarterly financial summary

(Rs bn) 1Q

FY21

1Q

FY20

YoY

(%)

4Q

FY20

QoQ

(%) FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

NBP 30.5 31.6 -3.5 38 -19.7 137.9 165.9 160.3 182.4 219.8

APE 12.7 18.7 -32.1 27.1 -53.1 96.9 107.4 93.3 106.2 122.2

Adj. VNB 2.4 3.7 -31.4 5.8 -55.8 19.2 22.2 19.6 22.9 26.9

Adj. VNBM (%) 20.1 19.9 20bps 21.3 -120bps 19.8 20.7 21.0 21.6 22.0

EV

236.6 276.4 313.3 356.8 403.6

MCap/EV (x)

3.8 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.2

P/VNB (x)

35.8 29.4 31.2 25.1 19.8

ROEV (%)

18.9 16.8 13.4 15.1 15.4


BUY

CMP (as on 21 Jul 2020) Rs 888

Target Price Rs 975

NIFTY 11,162

KEY

CHANGES OLD NEW

Rating BUY ADD


VNB % FY21E FY22E

Nil Nil

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg code SBILIFE IN


MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn) 888/11,904


52 Week high / low Rs 1,030/519


3M 6M 12M

Absolute (%) 32.3 (8.7) 19.3

Relative (%) 8.5 (0.5) 20.3


Mar-20 Jun-20

Promoters 62.8 60.7


FPIs 25.9 26.2



Source : BSE


Madhukar Ladha, CFA

[email protected]

+91-22-6171-7323

Page | 6

HSIE Results Daily

Rating Criteria

BUY: >+15% return potential

ADD: +5% to +15% return potential

REDUCE: -10% to +5% return potential

SELL: > 10% Downside return potential

Disclosure:

Analyst Company Covered Qualification Any holding in the stock

Darpin Shah Axis Bank MBA NO

Aakash Dattani Axis Bank ACA NO

Punit Bahlani Axis Bank ACA NO

Varun Lohchab Hindustan Unilever PGDM NO

Naveen Trivedi Hindustan Unilever MBA NO

Aditya Sane Hindustan Unilever CA NO

Madhukar Ladha ICICI Prudential Life CFA NO

Madhukar Ladha SBI Life Insurance CFA NO

Page | 7

HSIE Results Daily

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(East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Compliance Officer: Binkle R. Oza Email: [email protected] Phone: (022)

3045 3600

HDFC Securities Limited, SEBI Reg. No.: NSE, BSE, MSEI, MCX: INZ000186937; AMFI Reg. No. ARN: 13549; PFRDA Reg. No. POP: 11092018; IRDA

Corporate Agent License No.: CA0062; SEBI Research Analyst Reg. No.: INH000002475; SEBI Investment Adviser Reg. No.: INA000011538; CIN -

U67120MH2000PLC152193

HDFC securities

Institutional Equities

Unit No. 1602, 16th Floor, Tower A, Peninsula Business Park,

Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai - 400 013

Board: +91-22-6171-7330 www.hdfcsec.com

mailto:[email protected]

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