5th international meeting on meteorology and climatology

5th International Meeting on

Meteorology and Climatology of the

Mediterranean

Abstracts book

Organized by Associació Catalana de Meteorologia (ACAM) and Network ofMeteorology of the Mediterranean with support from Tethys, Journal of

Mediterranean Meteorology & Climatology and Istanbul Technical University (ITU)

Istanbul, March 2nd-4th 2015

http://www.tethys.cat/MetMed/5Istanbul/index_en.htm

5th MetMed. Istanbul 2-4/III/2015 1

General information

Location of the meeting

Istanbul Technical UniversityAyazaga CampusSüleyman Demirel Cultural Center34469 Maslak - Istanbul (Turkey)Tel. + 90 212 285 70 70www.sdkm.itu.edu.tr

Organization

Network of Meteorology of the MediterraneanTethys, Jounal of the Mediterranan Meteoology andClimatology (http://www.tethys.cat/en)Support from:Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness

Support

ACAM, Associació Catalana de Meteorologia(www.acam.cat)

Istanbul Technical University (ITU,http://www.itu.edu.tr/en/)

PROMETEO program 2014 Phase II/2015, GeneralitatValenciana

Chair of Conference

Jose Luis Palau (Fundación Centro de EstudiosAmbientales del Mediterráneo, CEAM València)Elçin Tan (Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul)Joan Cuxart (Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma)Selahattin Incecik (Istanbul Technical University)Yurdanur S. Unal (Istanbul Technical University)

Secretary

Margalida Riutort (Universitat de les Illes Balears,Palma, Spain)[email protected]

Scienti�c Committee

Joan Arús (Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia, AEMETD. T. en Barcelona, Spain)Joan Bech (Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain)Josep Calbó (Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain)Vicent Caselles (Universitat de València, València,Spain)Bernat Codina (Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona,Spain)Joan Cuxart (Universitat de les Illes Balears, Palma,Spain)Lluís Fita (Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique,LMD, Paris)José Antonio Guijarro (Agencia Estatal de Meteorolo-gia, AEMET D. T. Palma, Spain)Kristian Horvath (Croatian Hydrometeorological Ser-vice, Zagreb, Croatia)José Luis Palau (Fundación Centro de Estudios Ambi-entales del Mediterráneo, CEAM, València, Spain)Jean-Louis Roujean (Météo-France, Perpignan, France)Giuseppina Scavone (University of Basilicata, Italy)Elçin Tan (Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul,Turkey)Amit Teller (Weizmann Institute of Science, Israel)Dino Zardi (University of Trento, Trento, Italy)

ACAM, NMM - Tethys & ITU with support from Spanish MEC


5th International Meeting on Meteorology and

Climatology of the Mediterranean

Organized by Associació Catalana de Meteorologia (ACAM) and Network of Meteorologyof the Mediterranean with support from Tethys, Journal of Mediterranean Meteorology &

Climatology and Istanbul Technical University (ITU)Abstracts book

February 2nd-4th March 2015

Oral

Monday, 2nd

Session 0: Welcome

9:20-9:25: Welcome and opening the 5thMetMed ConferenceJose Luis PalauChair of Conference, on behalf of the Organising Committee

9:25-9:45: Climate Change in Mediterranean:Current, Future and ChallengesProf. Selahattin IncecikDepartment of Meteorological Engineering, ITU

9:45-9:50: Welcome TalkPof. Ahmet Duran SahinHead of the Department of Meteorological Engineering, ITU

9:50-10:10: Natural Resource Management,International Cooperation Mechanisms andOpportunities related to Forestry and Com-bat Deserti�cation in Mediterranean Re-gion, and UNCCD COP12Mr. Ismail BelenVice General Manager, Republic of Turkey Ministry ofForestry and Water A�airs, General Directorate of Combat-ing Deserti�cation and Erosion

10:10-10:30: Welcome TalkProf. Mehmet KaracaRector of ITU

Session 5: Wind energyChairmen: Dr. Zardi, Dr. Codina and Dr. Tan

10:30-10:45: Weather Intelligence for WindEnergy - WILL4WIND

1K. Horvath, 1A. Baji¢, 1S. Ivatek-�ahdan, 1A.Stane²i¢, 1I. Odak, 1M. Hrastinski, 1M. Tu-dor, 1E. Ivankovi¢, 2M. Va²ak, 2M. Ðalto, 2J.Matu²ko, 2M. Baoti¢ and 2N. Peri¢

1Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia2University of Zagreb, Faculty of Electrical Engineering andComputing, Zagreb, Croatia

Current state-of-the-art global and mesoscale modelsare still limited in representing the challenging localwind conditions, such as in coastal and complex terrains.This is due to prevailing wind systems which are -dueto their smaller scales- not adequately represented intypical operational weather prediction models. An en-hanced dynamical-statistical short-range (up to 3 days)wind forecasting model is being developed to supporte�cient wind energy integration and wind power plantmanagement.We present �rst results of the new short-range wind fore-casting system prototype designed for the wind regimesprevailing in coastal and complex terrain. The windprediction system comprises of the three types of re�ne-ments 1) Regional re�nement of global weather modelpredictions through a mesoscale NWP model; 2) Sub-regional re�nement through a simpli�ed mesoscale NWPmodel; 3) Site-speci�c re�nement that is a self-learning,site-speci�c probabilistic statistical model based on ana-logues, which utilizes both wind predictions and windtower or nacelle observations. Additionally, an ultra-short range forecasting module (0-3h lead time) is devel-oped using neural networks with recent measurementsand near-history numerical forecasts used as inputs.The moment-based and spectral veri�cation suggests a



substantial improvement of the model accuracy may bereached through a chain of dynamical-statistical modelsacross all forecast lead times.Finally, we assess the challenges of enhancing collab-oration of meteorology and wind energy communitiesas well as the topic of interactions of meteorology andwind energy sectors identi�ed through the identi�cationof joint research priorities of those two sectors.Study is supported by the EU-IPA (Instrument for Pre-Accession) fund for Croatia, within the framework ofthe Action �Weather Intelligence for Wind Energy -WILL4WIND�.

10:45-11:00: Wind Speed Ensemble Predic-tions With an Analog-Based Method inComplex Terrain

1I. Odak, 2L. Delle Monache, 1K. Horvath, 1M.Hrastinski and 1A. Baji¢

1Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia2Research Applications Laboratory, NCAR, Boulder, Co,USA

The �rst step to build an analog ensemble (AnEn)method is the search for similar (i.e. analogs) pastpredictions across several variables (e.g., wind speed,wind direction, temperature) to the current prediction.The measurements corresponding to the analogs formthe AnEn. AnEn can be used to generate determinis-tic (e.g., the AnEn mean or median) and probabilisticshort- or medium-range forecasts. It provides accuratepredictions while reliably quantifying their uncertainty.The AnEn was generated by Aire Limitée Adaptationdynamique Développement InterNational model (AL-ADIN) run over two nested domain with 8 and 2 kmhorizontal resolution. It was tested at several clima-tologically di�erent locations across Croatia for point-based wind speed predictions at 10 m height. Resultswere veri�ed and compared to ALADIN model to ad-dress the following question: what is the impact of theALADIN model resolution on the performance of theAnEn?The veri�cation procedure includes several metrics com-puted considering wind speed as continuous, categoricaland probabilistic predictand, to optimize the AnEn con-�guration, and to test both the deterministic and prob-abilistic prediction performances.This study shows that deterministic AnEn predictions,compared to model used to generate it, improve lin-ear correlation between predictions and measurementsand reduce bias and root-mean-square error, especiallyin complex terrain. Besides, probabilistic AnEn pre-dictions provide reliable information about their uncer-tainty.Improvement in forecast accuracy brought by compu-tationally cost e�ective AnEn generated by ALADINmodel with 8 km horizontal resolution is comparableto the improvement of higher-resolution output of AL-ADIN model (2 km). Re�nement of ALADIN modelhorizontal resolution used to generate AnEn addition-

ally improves AnEn predictions for high wind speeds.Thus, optimal chain of di�erent components in theweather prediction systems can successfully be broadenby using deterministic AnEn forecast in assessment ofwind power, and probabilistic product in operative pur-poses at wind farms.

11:00-11:15: Resilience: A Semi-OperationalPrototype to Forecast Wind Power fromWeeks to Months Ahead

1M. Davis, 1,2F. Doblas-Reyes, 1V. Torralba Fer-nandez, 1N. Gonzalez-Reviriego and 1A. Pintó Bi-escas

1Climate Forecasting Unit, Catalan Institute of Climate Sci-ence (IC3)2Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA)

Predicting the future variability of energy resources be-yond the �rst two-weeks can allow end users to takecalculated, precautionary action with a potential costsavings. Weather and its behaviour over time, knownas climate, has a considerable a�ect on energy demandand supply and in�uences many decisions. For exam-ple, energy producers adjust their strategies based on aforeseen energy capacity, or wind farm operators plan foroptimal meteorological conditions to undertake mainte-nance works. The earlier these decisions can be planned,the sooner unforeseen operational risks could be identi-�ed. To estimate future climate variability over comingweeks or seasons, current energy practices use a deter-ministic approach based on retrospective climatology.Recent advances in global climate models, which sim-ulate the physics of the whole climate system, demon-strate that probabilistic forecasting can improve uponthis methodology at some spatial and temporal scales.Energy decision makers now have a new set of climaterisk management tools that can strengthen their deci-sion making, but are they ready to use them?Probabilistic climate forecasts come with a new set ofchallenges for end users: information is often untailored,hard to understand and apply in a decision-making con-text. EUPORIAS is a collaborative project funded bythe European Commission to address these challengesand support the development of climate services in Eu-rope. One outcome of this project will be RESILIENCE,a semi-operational, energy prototype of climate servicesthat will operate on a sub-seasonal to seasonal time-scale and address the needs of the speci�c decisions men-tioned above. State-of-the-art forecasts will be createdin partnership with project SPECS, an ongoing, paral-lel European project that will deliver a new generationof climate forecast systems with improved forecast qual-ity.

11:15-11:30: WRF's wind power ensemblesfor a wind farm located in a coastal areaof Turkey

1G. Kirkil, 2Y. Ezber and 3T. Kaytanci



1Department of Energy Systems Engineering, Kadir HasUniversity, Istanbul, Turkey2Eurasia Earth Sciences Institute, Istanbul Technical Uni-versity, Istanbul, Turkey3Department of Meteorological Engineering, Istanbul Tech-nical University, Istanbul, Turkey

Short-term wind forecasts are obtained for a wind farmlocated in a coastal area of Turkey. The simulatedmonth is March when the plant is under strong south-westerly gusts. We performed multi-scale simulationsusing WRF's di�erent Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL)parameterizations as well as Large Eddy Simulation(LES). WRF ensembles with di�erent PBL parameter-izations showed little spread for wind speed forecasts.LES models improved the forecasts. Statistical erroranalysis is performed and ramp events are analyzed.Model forecasts for ramps in general were poor. Com-plex topography of the study area also a�ects PBL andLES parameterizations' performance, especially the ac-curacy of wind forecasts were poor in late afternoons.

11:30-11:45: Microscale Variability of WindPower Density Assessment in Complex Ter-rain and Wind Regime Trends in Future Cli-mate Projections

1,2D. Kora£in, 3R. Belu, 1C. Smith, 1J. Mejia, 4K.Horvath and 5R. Vellore

1Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA2University of Split, Croatia3Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA4Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia5Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India

Assessment and forecasting of wind resources is of greatimportance for the socio-economic community, espe-cially considering the impacts of global and regional cli-mate change. Consequently, there is strong need to re-place fossil fuels based electricity generation with wind,solar, or biomass electricity generation. Due to the highspatial and temporal variability of winds and turbu-lence, it is essential to understand wind structure andits evolution. Additional problem is to understand windcharacteristics in complex terrain where topographicforcing can signi�cantly alter wind magnitude and per-sistence. To address these questions, a research projectwas conducted in the western U.S. The project consistedof a �eld campaign during a period of more than one yearand forecasting studies. Two 60-m towers and a collo-cated acoustic sounder were deployed over the mountainridges in the area of developed topography. Both towerswere equipped with standard anemometers at three lev-els and sonic anemometers at two levels. A preliminaryanalysis quanti�ed di�erences in wind speed among cupand sonic anemometers and the sodar as well as howthese di�erences a�ect assessment of wind power den-sity on seasonal and annual periods in complex terrain.The analysis also included estimates of the di�erences inwind characteristics between these two towers that were

located 2700 m apart with a vertical distance of 140 melevation between their bases. An additional objectiveof the study is to investigate how this seasonal and an-nual wind power density assessment will evolve underthe expected climate change projections. Analysis ofresults from the regional climate model for the westernU.S. with a horizontal resolution of 12 km with a nesteddomain covering Nevada of 4 km is currently ongoing.The results for future expected trends in winds, windshear, and turbulence intensity will be presented at theconference.

11:45-12:00: O�shore Wind Energy Potentialof Turkey

E. Tan

Istanbul Technical University, Department of MeteorologicalEngineering, Istanbul Turkey

Turkey has made a respectable amount of investment onwind energy sector during the last two decades. As of2013, the installed capacity of the country has reachedto 2,760 MW and it is scheduled to reach 20,000 MWby the end of 2023, which will be centenary of the Re-public of Turkey. In this respect, a smart wind resourceassessment plan is necessary to make a great deal ofpro�t by optimizing land use and other related e�ects.Therefore, making an investment on o�shore wind farmswould be inevitable in the consideration that Turkeyis a peninsula surrounded by Black Sea, Marmara Sea,Aegean Sea and Mediterranean Sea. On the other hand,installation regulations should be determined carefullyfor o�shore wind farms. Thus, in this study, the o�shorewind energy potential of Turkey is evaluated by takinginto account all aspects of it. Wind �elds are going tobe modeled by using the WRF Model and the resultsare going to be validated by 10 o�shore buoys of StateMeteorological Service of Turkey and satellite data. Af-terwards, high potential areas will be determined basedon these model results as well as reanalysis data. Sinceshallow water may be preferable economically for thesiting of o�shore wind farms, their feasibility depend-ing on their types will be discussed. As a preliminaryresource assessment, the application of wind farms forthree depth options (less than 20m, 50m, and 200m) willalso be evaluated.

Session 5: Numerical modellingChairmen: Dr. Horvath, Dr. Teller and Dr. Palau

13:15-13:30: Solar parameterizations: impacton real WRF-ARW simulations

1A. Montornès, 1B. Codina and 2J. Zack

1Department of Astronomy and Meteorology, University ofBarcelona, Barcelona, Spain2MESO, INC., Troy, USA



A wide range of approaches for radiative transfer com-putations lead to several parameterizations. As a con-sequence, these approximations bring to distinct resultsin radiative �uxes and heating rate pro�les, even underthe same atmospheric conditions. Since the transfer ofsolar and terrestrial radiation represents the primordialphysical process that shapes the atmospheric circula-tion, these deviations must have an impact in the nu-merical weather prediction (NWP) model performance.An analysis about the role of the shortwave schemes pro-vided in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model is presented. The study compares the ef-fect of four parameterizations (Dudhia, New Goddard,CAM and RRTMG) in two scenarios: i) cloudless andii) cloudy sky situations for a domain de�ned over Cat-alonia (northeast of the Iberian Peninsula). The discus-sion analyzes both direct and indirect feedback betweenthe dynamical aspects and the physical parameteriza-tions driven by changes on the treatment of the radia-tive transfer equation. The impact of these variationsin time are studied through three simulation windows:current day (0-23 h), day-ahead (24-47 h) and two daysahead (48-71 h).These analyses are focused on several NWPmodel �elds.From the most directly related to the shortwave schemessuch as the global horizontal irradiance or the heatingrate pro�le, to apparently secondary outcomes such asthe wind speed or the cloud composition among oth-ers. The observed di�erences between simulations us-ing di�erent solar parameterizations increase with thesimulation horizon, being more important in the cloudyscenario than in the cloudless sky.

13:30-13:45: Observational and NumericalStudy of the Severe Convective Storm of29Th October 2013 in the Balearic Islands

R. Romero, C. Ramis and V. Homar

Meteorology Group, Departament de Física, Universitat deles Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca, Spain

Mesoscale convective systems organized as squall linesoccasionally occur in the Balearic Islands (Spain) duringthe fall and these can in�ict serious disruptions in pop-ulated areas owing to the high precipitation rates andviolent wind gusts. One of such high impact weather sit-uations occurred on 29th October 2013 when a NE-SWelongated squall line developed to the west of the is-lands ahead of an advancing cold front and then crossedthe south of the archipelago. We �rst provide an ob-servational characterization of the event based on sur-face reports, remote sensing products, radiosoundingsand synoptic information. We also achieve, by means ofnumerical experiments, new insights into the kinematicand thermodynamic factors that governed the genesisand evolution of the linear convective system. Radarand satellite data con�rm the fast-moving and linearcharacter of the system, more evident over maritime ar-eas than over land. However, transition into a bow echostructure seems unlikely except in the later stages when

the system already passed the island of Mallorca. Thesynoptic setting at mid-upper tropospheric levels wasdominated by a cold trough extended over Western Eu-rope associated with a jet stream along its eastern �ank.Convection evolved under the right-entrance region ofthe jet, and initiated under the crucial in�uence of a con-comitant surface low developed over the MediterraneanSea ahead of the cold front. The low not only coop-erated with the upper-level dynamical forcing to erodea capping inversion initially present over the Balearicsand to moisten the atmospheric column above, but alsoshaped and enhanced a convergence line along whichthe �rst convective cells grew and self-aggregated. Thisscenario is con�rmed by the numerical simulations ofthe case, which also emphasize a relevant action of theregional topography in terms of favouring the previousmaritime convergence through the mesoscale modula-tion of the low-level �ow. Additional simulations showthat (i) the destabilization of the low-level air mass nec-essary for triggering and feeding an organized convectivesystem on 29th October 2013 was attributable to theintense evaporation from the Mediterranean that tookplace during the hours immediately before the event and(ii) regardless of the synoptic and mesoscale dynamicalforcing, prescription of accurate sea surface tempera-tures appears to be critical in this kind of situations fora successful �ne-grid numerical forecast of the convec-tive mode, degree of severity, timing and track of theprecipitation system.

13:45-14:00: Impact of Mesoscale Meteoro-logical Processes on Anomalous Propaga-tion Conditions Over the Northern AdriaticArea

1M. Teli²man-Prtenjak, 2I. Horvat, 3I. Tomaºi¢,4M. Kvaki¢, 5M. Viher and 1B. Grisogono

1Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, Universityof Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia2Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia3University of Liège/AGO/GHER, Liège, Belgium42 Mua Park Road, Muthaiga Nairobi, Kenya5Croatian Air Force HQ, Croatia

The impacts of mesoscale processes on the occurrenceof anomalous propagation conditions (named anaprop)for radio waves, including ducts, superrefractions andsubrefractions, were studied. The chosen formationsare the famous bora winds, and the sporadical sea/landbreeze (SB/LB) during three selected cases over a largeportion of the northern Adriatic. For this purpose,we used available radiosoundings and numerical WRF-ARW model simulations (of real cases and their sensi-tivity tests) at a horizontal resolution of 1.5 km. Themodel simulated the occurrences of anaprops satisfacto-rily, although their intensities and frequency were un-derestimated at times. Certain di�culties existed in re-producing the vertical pro�le of the modi�ed refractiveindex, which is mainly dependent on the accuracy of themodeled relative humidity. The spatial distributions of



summer anaprop reveal that the surface layer above thesea (roughly between 30 and 100 m asl) is often coveredby superrefractions and ducts. The SB is highly asso-ciated with the anaprop formations: (i) in the �rst 100m asl, where superrefractions and ducts form because ofthe advection of colder and moister air, and (ii) insidethe transition layer between the SB body and the anti-SB current in the form of subrefractions. When a deepconvection occurs, all three types of anaprop are causedby the downdraft beneath the cumulonimbus cloud basein its mature phase that creates smaller but signi�cantpools of cold and dry air. The bora wind usually cre-ates an anaprop pattern associated with the hydraulicjump and in�uences anaprop distribution over the seasurface.

14:00-14:15: Impact of Kitcube Data on thePrediction of Maritime Convective SevereWeather. Test for HyMeX IOP13 Event

1D. C. Carrió, 1V. Homar and 2U. Corsmeier

1Meteorology Group, Physics Department. Universitat de lesIlles Balears2Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, KarlsruheInstitute of Technology (KIT), Karlsruhe, Germany

The Special Observation Period 1 (SOP1) was a greatmilestone reached by the HyMeX scienti�c community.Observations sampling on 20 cases of severe weatherwere taken under an unprecedented international collab-oration. The underlying objective of this campaign wasto improve the knowledge of the mechanisms leading toheavy precipitation and �ash �ooding in the Mediter-ranean. One of the most active platforms during thecampaign was the KITcube-observatory of Karlsruhe In-stitute of Technology, a mobile platform that includesground-based remote sensors (radar and lidar) and in-struments for in-situ measurements. During SOP1, theKITcube operated on the island of Corsica, providingdirect observational data on severe weather occurring inthe north-eastern region of the Western Mediterranean.IOP 13 occurred between 15-16 October 2012 and it wascharacterized by heavy rains over northern and centralItaly. Storms formed over the French coastlands andover the sea, progressing eastwards across the Gulf ofGenoa. The most a�ected areas were north-eastern Italy(160mm/24h), Liguria-Tuscany (120mm/24h) and cen-tral Italy (600mm/24h). The prediction of these mar-itime convection driven cases is highly demanding forboth operational o�ces and high resolution numericalmodels. Ensemble data assimilation methods providethe tools to combine observational and modeling in-formation to formalize the problem of optimal use andtransference of information in the initialization and in-tegration of a forecasting system.We test the bene�ts o�ered by an Ensemble KalmanFilter (EnKF) system for the prediction of the IOP13event. We assess the impacts of various in-situ specialobservations taken by the KITcube team during thisevent on the forecasts of socially sensible parameters

such as probability of severe and accumulated precipi-tation. We discuss these impacts not only on the fore-casts products but also in terms of the relevant physicalmechanisms involved in the event

14:15-14:30: Development and Validation ofa Regional Earth System Model (RegESM)for the Mediterranean Region

1,2U. Turuncoglu

1Informatics Institute, Istanbul Technical University, Istan-bul, Turkey2Earth System Physics Section, International Center forTheoretical Physics, Trieste, Italy

The large water bodies such as the Mediterranean andBlack Seas are one of the main driving componentsof the basin's hydrological budget, and the connectionamong these seas and the ocean through the straits (i.e.Straits of Gibraltar, Dardanelles, and Bosporus) playsa very exclusive and interesting role in the water bal-ance of the seas along with the contributions of land-based runo�, evaporation and precipitation. Especially,the interaction between Mediterranean and Black Seasthrough the Turkish Strait System (TSS; Dardanelles,and Bosporus) is very complex component of the wa-ter budget of the both seas as well as their hydrody-namic properties. As a result of the recent studies,the investigation of nonlinear interaction between atmo-sphere and large water bodies (i.e. Mediterranean andBlack Sea) and the identifying of their connections withthe regional climate of the Mediterranean Region (es-pecially Anatolian Peninsula) become very crucial andopen research areas. Especially in the winter and fallseasons the feedback mechanisms between large waterbodies (i.e. Mediterranean Sea) and atmosphere mightbecame very signi�cant due to the increased evaporationover the seas and the fully coupled regional atmosphere-ocean models, which represent these interactions morerealistically than the standalone regional climate mod-els, might help to understand the mechanisms behindtheses complex interactions.In this study, the newly designed fully coupled regionalearth system model (RegESM) is used to investigatethe climate of the Mediterranean region. The modelis capable to estimate the heat and water balance of theMediterranean Sea. The regional earth system model isrun for the period 1979-2012 and it is compared to cor-responding standalone model simulation and the avail-able observational datasets to evaluate the performanceof the modeling system.

15:40-15:55: Does increasing the resolutionof Mesoscale Numerical Weather Predic-tion models enhance reproduction of windregimes in the complex terrain?

M. Hrastinski, K. Horvath, I. Odak, S. Ivatek-�ahdan and A. Baji¢



Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia

In the complex terrain of Eastern Adriatic where windclimate is governed by regional/local winds, it is bene�-cial to utilize a chain of numerical models to re�ne theassociated wind predictions. The principal questions weaddress are i) whether an increase of model resolutionimproves the accuracy and ii) could simpli�ed and com-putationally cheaper Mesoscale Numerical Weather Pre-diction (MNWP) models be used in the model chain forassessment and forecasting of wind properties?To answer the above questions, wind forecasts from AireLimitée Adaptation dynamique Développement Inter-National (ALADIN) MNWP model with 8 km horizon-tal grid spacing were used in period 2010-2012. Thoseforecasts were further re�ned to 2 km grid spacing using:i) full-physics based model, and ii) so-called dynamicaladaptation method (DADA) over subdomain that cov-ers broader area around Croatia. Statistical and spec-tral veri�cation were performed for three di�erent fore-casting setups using measured wind speeds from severalmeteorological stations that represent di�erent climateregions of Croatia.Based on variety of statistical scores and spectral mea-sures inferred in frequency domain, it is suggested thatthe results generally improved with increasing the modelresolution. The largest portion of errors can be at-tributed to phase errors, while the most signi�cant in-crease of accuracy was found for diurnal periods of mo-tions. Furthermore, a correlation between phase errorand spectral measures of model performance at di�erenttemporal scales was found. Simpli�ed DADA forecastshave proven to be valuable in forecasting wind proper-tirs on majority of stations, except for those near thevery coast and steep terrain where full-physics basedmodel was more successful in representing regional/localwind systems. Finally, kinetic energy, vorticity anddivergence spectra were analyzed to provide a scale-dependent measure of model performance as well as tostudy the gross e�ects of horizontal di�usion on the ef-fective model resolution.

15:55-16:10: Regional results of the couplingof LMDZ physics in WRF

1L. Fita, 2P. Drobinski, 1F. Hourdin and 1L. Fair-head

1Laboratorie de Météorologie Dynamique (LMD), UPMC-Jussieu, CNRS, Paris, France2 Laboratorie de Météorologie Dynamique, Ecole Polytech-nique, CNRS, Palisseau, France

In parallel to the growing of the computational power,GCM resolutions are getting �nner. This increase in res-olution might poses a challenge for their current physi-cal parameterizations. Laboratoire de Météorologie Dy-namique model (LMDZ) is the atmospheric componentof the Global Climate Model of the IPSL used in therecent CMIP5 data-set (as IPSL5A/B). In order to an-alyze the performance of the physical schemes of the

LMDZ at higher resolutions, they have been introducedin the Weather Research and Forecasting Limited AreaModel (WRF). This makes possible the test of LMDZphysics at high resolutions and compare the results tosimilar runs directly from the WRF model using thesame dynamical core. We present and analyze the re-sults from an ensemble of runs with the LMDZ, WRFand the coupling on 4 di�erent extreme events occurredin the Mediterranean basin: Superstorm of 2001 inthe Balearic Islands, medicane 1995, Cevennes �oodsof 1996, IOP15 from the HyMeX data-base with the re-spective available observations. Results should be usefulto improve LMDZ schemes and prepare them to the in-coming resolutions.

16:10-16:25: A Lagrangian Description of theFlow Feeding Precipitating Systems over aMediterranean Mountainous Region (East-ern Pyrenees)

1,2L. Trapero, 2J. Bech, 3F. Du�ourg and 2J.Lorente

1Snow and Mountain Research Center of Andorra, Andor-ran Research Institute, Andorra2Department of Astronomy and Meteorology, University ofBarcelona, Spain3Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Grouped'Étude de l'Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France,Centre National de la Recherce Scienti�que, France

Heavy precipitation events (HPE) over complex terrainare often favoured by enhancement mechanisms of pre-cipitation. The windward slopes of the Eastern Pyre-nees, as other mountainous Mediterranean regions, areregularly a�ected by HPE. This study bene�ts from highresolution numerical simulations (with horizontal gridlengths of 2.5 km) of di�erent case studies using theMESO-NH research model. The analysis has a twofoldobjective: to describe the synoptic environment in whichthe HPE developed and to identify the mesoscale mecha-nisms that lead to steady rainfall over the Eastern Pyre-nees as well as the features of the moisture in�ow feedingthe precipitation systems which were fairly well repro-duced by the model.From the analysis of the di�erent conditionally unstableepisodes the simulations indicate a marked dependenceof the precipitation intensity over the Pyrenees on twofactors: the intensity of the wind at low and mid levelsand the moisture advection towards the Pyrenees in thelowest 3 km of the atmosphere (Q3). According to thesimulations, it has been detected three di�erent rain-fall intensity regimes ranging from weak to heavy oro-graphic precipitation where Q3 exceeded 550 kg/mÂ·sand a low level jet of 30 m/s was also present. From thebackward trajectories based on Eulerian on-line tracers,it has been found that the feeding �ow is con�ned be-tween 0.5 and 3 km of altitude, mainly in the top edgeof the conditionally unstable boundary layer (>1000 m),whereas for the precipitating systems close to the coastthe �ow is con�ned in the �rst 1000 m within the PBL.



16:25-16:40: Interactions lake-atmosphereunder Mediterranean conditions: ALEX2014 observations and simulations

1R. Salgado, 1M. Potes, 1C. Policarpo, 2P. LeMoigne, ALEX 2014 Scienti�c Team

1Departamento de Física e Centro de Geofísica de Évora,Escola de Ciência e Tecnologia, Universidade de Évora2CNRM-GAME, Météo-France/CNRS UMR 3589

The ALqueva hydro-meteorological EXperiment,ALEX 2014, was an integrated �eld campaign(http://www.alex2014.cge.uevora.pt) with measure-ments of chemical, physical and biological parameters inwater and air at the Alqueva reservoir, a 250 km2 manmade lake, in the southeast of Portugal. The ALEX2014 took place from June 1 to September 30, 2014and includes an Intensive Observation Period (IOP) ofthree days (22 to 24 July). During the IOP, radioson-des were launched every tree hours, allowing a goodcharacterization of the atmospheric boundary layerand its evolution. Simultaneously, energy, vapor andmomentum �uxes between the water and the air weremeasured using the new IRGASON eddy covariancesystem, installed on a �oating platform. This platformwere instrumented in order to measure, among otherparameters: solar and thermal downward and upwardradiative �uxes, air temperature and humidity, windspeed and water temperature at 9 di�erent depths. TheALEX 2014 includes also several surface meteorologicalstations in order to characterize the local horizontalstructure of surface atmospheric �elds and detect lakee�ects.The lake-atmosphere interactions and its impact in theboundary layer structure and in the local circulationsare studied using data collected during the ALEX 2014POI together with results from numerical simulationsperformed with the non-hydrostatic Meso-NH frenchmodel.

Tuesday, 3rd

Session 2: Processes and applicationsChairmen: Dr.Cuxart and Dr. Palau

8:50-9:05: Field Study of the AtmosphericBoundary Layer in the Pannonian Plain

1G. Simó, 1J. Cuxart, 2T. Weidinger, 2A. Z. Gy-ongyosi, 3B. Wrenger, 2Z. Istenes, 4Z. Bottyan,5Z. Bozoki, 5D. Tatrai, 6A. Jericevic, 7B. Mat-jacic, 8M. Kiss and 8J. Jozsa

1University of the Balearis Islands, Mallorca, Spain2ELTE University, Budapest, Hungary3Hochschule Ostwestfalen-Lippe, Höxter, Germany4National University of Public Service, Szolnok, Hungary5University of Szeged, Hungary

6Aeronautical Meteorology Department, Zagreb, Croatia7Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia8Budapest University of Technology and Economics, Hun-gary

The PABLS13 (Pannonian Atmospheric BoundaryLayer Study 2013) was a measuring international cam-paign that took place in Szeged (Hungary) in lateNovember 2013. The aim of this campaign was to studythe characteristics of the daily cycle of the ABL in thecenter of the wide Pannonian plain and its interactionwith the underlying surface. Data were collected fromthe surface layer and the soil with �xed instrumentation,and a number of devices were used for the exploration ofthe vertical structure of the ABL, including a Sodar, atethered balloon, remotedly-controlled multicopter andplane, and radiosoundings. Here we will focus on the�rst Intensive Observation Period (IOP1) which was alate fall case with nocturnal cold advection under over-cast skies followed by the establishment of a very strongmorning inversion. The gathered data will be analyzedconjointly and use of outputs of numerical models will bealso made. Also the hypothesis of the arrival of downs-lope �ows from the distant Dynaric Alps to the Southwill be tested.

9:05-9:20: Mistral and Tramontane Patternsin Regional Climate Models

B. Ahrens and A. Obermann

Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences,Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Mistral and Tramontane are regional winds in southernFrance. The correct simulation of wind speed in thisarea is important for evaluation of �re risks, damage dueto strong winds and the modeling of deep-water forma-tion in the Mediterranean Sea. Both winds are funneledthrough valleys and show extensive air�ow patterns incomplex terrain, which makes them di�cult to simulatecorrectly in climate models. We survey the regional cli-mate models CCLM, ALADIN, WRF, PROMES, LMDand RegCM (all from the MedCORDEX/HyMeX database) and use gridded and surface station data to eval-uate the quality of model wind speed. We investigatethe e�ect of orographic features (Alps, Massif Centraland Pyrenees) and surface roughness parameterization(e.g. from vegetation and water waves). Emphasis is onspatial patterns in the areas of Mistral and Tramontaneas well as the overlapping zone. Additionally, we sur-vey the wind speed development and error propagationalong the wind tracks.

9:20-9:35: The imbalance of the measuredsurface energy budget and an estimation ofthe latent heat �ux

1J. Cuxart, 2L. Conangla, 1M. Ponsetí and 1I. Fer-nández



1University of the Balearic Islands, Palma (Mallorca, Spain)2Politechnical University of Catalonia, Manresa (Catalonia,Spain)

Here we present two aspects of our studies on the surfaceenergy budget. On one hand we evaluate the magnitudeof the imbalance using data of a two-year series from astation belonging to the Catalan Meteorological Serviceat Raimat near Lleida. The imbalance of the energy isinspected according to the season, type of weather ormoment of the day. The values range typically between10 and 30% of the value of the net radiation, and theyare of the same order of magnitude as the values of theatmospheric turbulent latent and sensible heat �uxes orthe soil heat �ux. On the other hand, we take advan-tage of the complete experimental display in this site toevaluate an estimation of the latent heat �ux (or evapo-transpiration) using the air humidity and the soil watercontents, and we compare it to the values measured bythe eddy-correlation device. Such an expression couldbe of use for many surface energy stations that couldnot a�ord the very costly device that is needed for theeddy-correlation determination of the latent heat �ux.

9:35-9:50: The Quanti�cation of The Re-lationship Between Hydraulic Geometry ofRivers in Western Anatolia and The Forma-tive Discharges

1G. Duman, 1O. Yagci, 2E. Tan and 3E. Gorgun

1Istanbul Technical University, Civil Engineering Faculty,Civil Engineering Department, Maslak Istanbul2Istanbul Technical University, Aeronautics and Astronau-tics Faculty, Department of Meteorological Engineering,Maslak Istanbul3Istanbul Technical University, Civil Engineering Faculty,Department of Environmental Engineering, Maslak Istanbul

Channelization programs against to �ooding have beenconducted in many rivers more than 50 years all aroundthe world. However, recently it was seen that chan-nelization of the natural streams resulted in devastat-ing consequences in terms of ecosystem and biodiver-sity. Thanks to the increasing ecological awareness, re-cent years however have witnessed re-naturalization ofconcrete-lined channels commonly. In this context, asimple but crucial question supposed to be answeredarises. How could we decide about the hydraulic geom-etry of the main channel of a river for re-naturalizationprogram? It is a crucial question in re-naturalization,since the main channel dimensions dictates the sedimenttransport process, �sh and vegetation ecosystem, andpotential �ood risks in the surrounding environment.A typical cross-section of a river arises as a result of someformative discharges. From this motivation, a study isundertaken to give a better understanding to the rela-tionship between the characteristic of discharge valuesand main channel dimensions of rivers located in West-ern Anatolia. To serve this aim only unregulated (nat-ural) stream dimensions were taken into consideration.

To determine the discharge, which has the highest corre-lation with channel forms, a series of statistical analysiswas undertaken. Based on the analysis the most forma-tive discharges were quanti�ed and empirical equationswere generated based on the relationship between dis-charge values and main channel.

9:50-10:05: Spatio-Temporal Variability ofAtmospheric Precipitable Water Vapor Ac-cumulation over the Mediterranean Sea

J. L. Palau and F. Rovira

CEAM - Centro de Estudios Ambientales del Mediterráneo.Valencia (Spain)

In this study we present the spatiotemporal variabilityof total column of precipitable water over the Mediter-ranean Sea. These kind of studies are relevant for dis-tinguish some of the feedbacks driving climate changein both the Western and the Eastern MediterraneanBasins (WMB and EMB respectively) as, e.g., precip-itation regimes, secondary pollutant production, venti-lation conditions, etc. The dataset used is provided bythe MODIS instrument on board the Terra Satellite: IRTotal column precipitable water with the time pass overthe Mediterranean at 11:00 h. In this study we haveused an eleven-year period (2000-2010).To show water vapour spatial patterns, we have com-bined some di�erent statistical techniques. The empir-ical orthogonal function (EOF) and the regression boxare used to highlight the di�erent spatial behaviour ofthe total column of precipitable water vapor, compar-ing the WMB and the EMB. In this study, on one hand,we show how the �rst component (EOF1) is related withannual variability and it extends over the whole Mediter-ranean sea; whereas, on the other hand, the second com-ponent (EOF2) is associated with a semi-annual cycleand shows a completely di�erentiated pattern betweenthe WMB and the EMB. Both components explain the74% of the total variability in the datasets. Addition-ally, this study shows the water vapor cycles (or peri-odicities), both in the WMB and the EMB, using a nu-meric methodology based in a parametric reconstructionof harmonics of non-steady and noisy time series (Palauand Rovira, 2012). This latter result remarks the spatialand seasonal di�erences, between both Mediterraneanbasins, that are in good agreement with previous studiesfocused on the tropospheric ozone accumulation cyclesfound on the Western Mediterranean Basin throughoutthe year during a 14-year period of observations (Palauand Rovira 2012) and on the climatology of aerosol op-tical depth over the Eastern Mediterranean Basin usinga 10-year period of observations (Mishra et al. 2014).

11:15-11:30: The 'DAPHNE' ConceptualModel for the Design of a Precipitation En-hancement Project in Thessaly, Greece

Th. Karacostas, I. Pytharoulis, I. Tegoulias, D.Bampzelis and S. Kartsios



Department of Meteorology and Climatology, School of Ge-ology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece.

The impact of climate change and the continued in-crease in water needs for urban and agricultural use havelargely exhausted the water supplies in the most vitalagricultural area of Greece, Thessaly. To alleviate that,the �DAPHNE� conceptual model is being developed, tosupport the potentiality and applicability of a well de-signed precipitation enhancement program. DAPHNEproject integrates all contemporary components in orderto have the most comprehensive state-of-the-science re-sults. These components include, the use of the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) nu-merical model at very high resolution (1km x 1km), con-sidering the di�erent types of hydrometeors through so-phisticated microphysical parameterizations, the adap-tation and redevelopment of a 3D cloud model for per-forming simulations of seeding material dispersion, the-specially equipped- seeding aircraft measurements andthe weather radar images from a C-band weather radar.The objectives are integrated and accomplished by per-forming -during the experimental phase of the project-in-situ measurement campaigns and cloud seeding ex-periments on suitably chosen appropriate clouds, asso-ciated with environmental impact assessment studies.Gridded projections of regional climate models, duringthe period 2041-2050 are also used in the study. It isthe �rst time that all the aforementioned state-of-the-art tools, radar data and aircraft observations are com-bined in order to create the fundamental principles forthe development of the �DAPHNE� Conceptual Modelthat should de�ne -if, when, where and how- a precip-itation enhancement program would be applicable overthe examined area.

11:30-11:45: Impact of the mixing state onaerosol optical properties and radiative ef-fect during a severe wild�re episode overEastern Spain in summer 2012

1,2J. L. Gómez-Amo, 2A. Di Sarra, 1C. Marcos,1V. Estellés, 1R. Pedrós1M. P. Utrillas and 1J. A.Martínez-Lozano

1Dpt. Earth Physics and Thermodynamics, University ofValencia, Spain2Laboratory for Earth Observations and Analyses, ENEA,Italy

A severe wild�re occurred in Eastern Spain in summer2012. The fresh smoke plume was detected during anintense dust episode at the Burjassot (39.5◦N, 0.4◦W)measurement station. This caused a huge increase in theaerosol optical depth (AOD) and a marked change in theaerosol optical properties. The dust contribution led toan increase in AOD at 500nm up to 0.80, and a decreasein the Ångström exponent (AE) down to 0.05. AODwas drastically enhanced by the smoke plume reachingvalues higher than 2 during the wild�re peak, with anextremely high maximum of 8, on 29 June.

We applied an improved approach to derive the column-integrated size distribution, single scattering albedo(SSA) and asymmetry parameter (g) in the di�er-ent aerosol conditions during the wild�re. This re-trieval combined direct sun-photometer measurements;the King inversion; the Mie Theory; and the refractiveindex provided by AERONET. A methodology to deter-mine the microphysical and optical properties of mineraldust and the smoke plume separately during the mixingcases was implemented. The sensitivity of these prop-erties to the mixing ratio was also analysed. The mixedaerosol cases showed a bimodal size distribution, withthe �ne and coarse modes dominated by the smoke par-ticles and the mineral dust, respectively. Mineral dust,the smoke plume, and the mixture show similar absorp-tion at 440 nm (SSA ∼ 0.90). However an opposite spec-tral dependency was observed for dust and smoke, withaveraged SSA of 0.96 and 0.87 at 1020 nm, respectively.SSA and g for the mixture showed a strong spectral de-pendency which increased with the smoke mixing ratio.The radiative impact due to the di�erent aerosol typeshas been also evaluated using only measurements of sur-face irradiance. Special attention to the radiative e�ectdue to the aerosol mixture (dust+smoke) has been takeninto account.

11:45-12:00: Comprehensive Assessmentof Atmospheric Benzo(A)Pyrene in theMediterranean under Present and ClimateChange Scenarios � A Field and ModellingApproach

1P. Jiménez-Guerrero, 1J. P. Montávez and 1,2N.Ratola

1Department of Physics, Regional Campus of InternationalExcellence 'Campus Mare Nostrum', University of Murcia,Murcia, Spain2LEPABE, Departamento de Engenharia Química, Facul-dade de Engenharia da Universidade do Porto, Portugal

Combining �eld and modelling strategies is necessary forthe de�nition and validation of the spatial, temporal andchemical transport patterns of atmospheric pollutants,providing at the same time important feedbacks for such�elds as meteorology, atmospheric chemistry and evenclimate change.In our study, a comprehensive assessment of presentand climate change scenarios was proposed for an air-borne carcinogenic contaminant of natural and an-thropogenic origin for which some legal limits alreadyexist: benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The modelling systemWRF+CHIMERE was implemented with high spatialand temporal resolution to the Mediterranean area, us-ing BaP atmospheric levels estimated from the levelsfound in pine needles collected in 27 sampling sites inPortugal, Spain and Greece (9 per country in urban andnon-urban areas). Model pollutants climatologies werevalidated for the present scenarios with the concentra-tions in pine needles, comparing the tree countries andurban and non-urban sites in each country.



However, it is also crucial to update the currently avail-able information of these kinds of persistent pollutants,to include regional climate impacts on air quality. Hencethe need to understand local and regional phenomena oftransport of atmospheric pollutants also in future sce-narios and, ultimately, to provide valuable tools for theestablishment of advisory or legal limits for their pres-ence. To achieve this purpose, this work presents sev-eral scenarios of how climate change a�ects air quality,modifying dispersion (wind speed, mixing height, con-vection and fronts), wet and dry deposition, chemistry,emissions, chemical transport and background concen-trations of BaP, including a perspective on their in�u-ence on the available health safety thresholds. WRF-simulations driven by the ECHAM5 SRES A2 andB1 forcing were used for a time period covering theyear1991-2050.

12:00-12:15: FF: Water budget analysis ona set of severe cyclogenesis events in theMediterranean basin

1L. Fita and 2E. Flaounas

1Laboratorie de Météorologie Dynamique, UPMC-Jussieu,CNRS, Paris, France2National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece

Extreme cyclones in the Mediterranean basin have a se-vere impact on the population residing along the coaststhat are mostly related to �oods, strong winds andstorm surges. Water induced processes such as diabat-ical cloud formation has been proved as one of the keyaspects for the development of deep cyclones. Here wepresent a new water budget diagnostic, implemented inthe WRF model. In comparison to the other existingcomputations of the water budget, this one di�ers intwo key aspects: terms of the budget are kept at eachgrid point, and the terms are obtained as accumulatedvalues from the internal time-step. That makes possibleto analyze the water cycle with a remarkable detail, di�-cult to obtain with the other implementations. What wewill here present is the application of this new method-ology on a series of strong cyclones along the Mediter-ranean basin. The large number of analyzed cases andthe capabilities of this new WRF implementation allowsto perform a statistical analysis and to obtain robustconclusions about the insights of the water processes incyclones life-cycle.

Session 3: Remote and in-situ measure-mentsChairmen: Dr. Roujean, Dr. Caselles and Dr. Bech

13:15-13:30: Using a Model Hybrid Based onANN-MLP and the SPI Index for droughtPrediction case of Inaouen Basin (NorthernMorocco)

1B. Boudad, 1H. Sahbi and 2I. Manssouri

1Laboratory of Geo-Engineering and Environment, Facultyof Sciences, Moulay Ismail University, Zitoune, Meknes,Morocco2Laboratory of Mechanics, Mechatronics and Command,ENSAM, Moulay Ismail University, Meknes, Morocco

This paper describes an approach for predictingdroughts in the basin Inaouen by using a hybrid modelbased on arti�cial neural networks such Multilayer Per-ceptron (ANN-MLP) and SPI index (Standardized Pre-cipitation Index).During the �rst step, the calculation of the SPI indexhas been taken. This is achieved by adjusting the fre-quency distribution monthly records precipitation, to aprobability density function.In a second step, three models of ANN-MLP were con-structed using, for inputs a dataset containing the SPIcalculated, the values of monthly precipitation and in-troducing also the NAO index to estimate the e�ect ofthe North Atlantic Oscillation on the drought in the re-gion.The performance of the neural prediction model inte-grating the three variables as inputs (ANN-MLP 3) areshowing far greater than those established by other mod-els considering only precipitation and / or SPI. Thisoptimal model (ANN-MLP 3) was applied to the pre-diction of drought in the region using SPI 3, SPI 6, SPI9, SPI 12 and SPI 24. These SPI values were predictedfor one month ahead. The model shows very good preci-sion and which become greater when we move from SPI3 to SPI 24.

13:30-13:45: Surface Temperature and Emis-sivity Retrieval from Seviri Observations:Results and Comparisons with Remote andin-situ Measurements

S. Venafra, M. G. Blasi, G. Liuzzi, G. Masiello,C. Serio and V. Telesca

Scuola di Ingegneria, University of Basilicata. Potenza, Italy

Nowadays the retrieval of geophysical parameters fromsatellite observations largely relies on a priori informa-tion, which is derived from climatology and/or mod-els for Numerical Weather Prediction. Thus, the re-trieval problem can be e�ciently analyzed within thebroad context of data assimilation, which is indeedthe paradigm of the many seemingly di�erent methods,which have been developed over the past years, such asOptimal Estimation and Kalman Filter which end upwith the same formal solution as far as the estimate ofgeophysical parameters is concerned. In a recent study,the high temporal resolution of data acquisition by geo-stationary satellites and their capability to resolve thediurnal cycle has been exploited for the retrieval of sur-face temperature and emissivity. We have examinedthe case of SEVIRI (Spinning Enhanced Visible and In-frared Imager) high rate level 1.5 image data. A suitable



Kalman Filter approach has been developed and demon-strated on the basis of suitable case studies encompass-ing a variety of surface features. The results have beenquite recently documented in the peer review literature.We pursue a genuine dynamical strategy which exploitsthe sequential approach of the Kalman �lter. This re-sults in an algorithm which does not need to increasethe dimensionality of the data space, e.g., because oftime accumulation of observations, while preserving thehighest time resolution prescribed by the repeat time ofthe geostationary instrumentation (15 min for SEVIRI).In this presentation we show some results on emissiv-ity and surface temperature retrieval from SEVIRI ob-servations, choosing as target area the Mediterraneanarea and using the Kalman �lter methodology. We alsocompare the retrievals with ECMWF, MODIS, AVHRRproducts and in-situ co-located observations.

13:45-14:00: Daily rainfall detection and esti-mation over land using microwave surfaceemissivities

1C. Birman, 1F. Karbou and 2J.-F. Mahfouf

1Météo France/CNRM-GAME/CEN2Météo France/CNRM-GAME/GMAP

Rainfall is a key parameter for meteorology, hydrologyand climate, but its estimation using remote sensing ob-servations still remains a major scienti�c challenge. Amethod is developed using surface emissivities computedat 89 GHz from AMSU-A, AMSU-B and SSMI/S instru-ments to detect rain events and to estimate a daily pre-cipitation rate over land surfaces. This new retrieval al-gorithm, called EMIssivity Rainfall Retrieval (EMIRR),is evaluated over France and compared to several otherprecipitation products. The precipitation detection isperformed using temporal changes of daily surface emis-sivities. A statistical �t, derived from a rainfall analysisproduct using raingauge and radar data, is devised toestimate a daily precipitation rate from surface emis-sivities. Rain retrievals are evaluated over a one yearperiod in 2010 against other precipitation products in-cluding rain gauge measurements.The EMIRR algorithm allows a reasonable detection ofrainy events from daily surface emissivities. The num-ber of rainy days and the daily rainfall rates comparewell with estimates from other precipitation products.However, the algorithm tends to overestimate low pre-cipitation amounts and to underestimate higher ones,with reduced performances in the presence of snow. De-spite such limitations, this new method is very promis-ing and provides a demonstration of the potential use ofthe 89 GHz surface emissivities to infer relevant infor-mation (occurrence and amounts) on daily precipitationover land surfaces.

14:00-14:15: Di�usion in Convective FlowsLaboratory Experiments and AtmosphericFlows

1J. M. Redondo, 1T. Vila, 1,2J. Tellez and 2J. M.Sanchez

1Dept. Applied Physics, UPC Barcelona Tech. Barcelona,Spain2Termoelectricidad Berotza, Noain-Esquirotz, Navarra.Spain

Experimental results in order to map the di�erent tran-sitions between two and three dimensional convectionin an enclosure with complex driven heat �ows. Thesize of the water tank is of 0.2 x 0.2x 0.1 m and the heatsources or sinks can be regulated both in power and sign(Redondo, 1992; Redondo et al., 1995). The thermalconvective driven �ows are generated by Seebeck andPeltier e�ects in two opossed walls, thus generating dif-ferent types of convective cells that varies strongly withthe Topology of the boundary conditions as a functionof Rayleigh, Peclet and Nusselt numbers, (Kuramitsuet al., 2003; Nicolleau et al, 2011). Visualizations areperformed by PIV, Particle tracking and shadowgraph.Di�usion is measured in the transition from a homo-geneous linearly strati�ed �uid to a cellular or layeredstructure by means of convective stirring. Patterns ariseby setting up a convective �ow generated by a buoyantheat �ux (Kimura and Iga, 1995). The experiments de-scribed here investigate high Prandtl number mixing us-ing brine and fresh water in order to form density inter-faces and low Prandtl number mixing with temperaturegradients (Mahjoub et al., 2000).We also present a detailed comparison of the evolution ofJets and Plumes in overall mixing. The relation betweenfractal analysis and spectral analysis can be very usefulto determine the evolution of scales. Experimental andnumerical results on the convective cells are comparedwith Remote Sensing observations of the atmosphere,SAR images of the ocean can detect well these typesof structures over the ocean (Kimura and Iga, 1995;Platonov et al., 2008).The evolution of the turbulent mixing layer and its com-plex con�guration is studied taking into account the de-pendence on the initial modes at the early stages andits spectral, self-similar information [6]. Spectral andFractal analysis on the images has been used in order toestimate dominant mixing structures as well as the dis-persion relations of basic instabilities (Platonov et al.,2008).

14:15-14:30: Satellite Application Facilitieson Land Surface Analysis (LSA SAF): anoverview of existing MSG SEVIRI products

1J.-L. Roujean, 2I. Trigo, 3A. Arboleda, 2C.Barroso, 4F. Camacho-de-Coca, 1D. Carrer,1X. Ceamanos, 6C. C. DaCamara, 5J. García-Haro, 3F. Gellens-Meulenberghs, 3N. Ghilain, 7F.Goettsche, 7F. Olesen, 8M. Wooster

1Météo-France, CNRM, France2Instituto Portugues do Mar e da Atmosphera (IPMA), Por-tugal



3Royal Meteorological Institute (RMI), Belgium4EOLAB, Spain5University of Valence, Spain6Instituto Don Luiz, Portugal7Karlshrue Institute of Technology (KIT), Germany8King College London, United Kingdom

Characterization of land surfaces is possible with theuse of products estimated and disseminated by the LandSurface Analysis (LSA) SAF (http://landsaf.ipma.pt/),which is supported by EUMETSAT and the NationalMeteorological Sevices. Products are distributed viaEUMETCast and FTP, with temporal samplings rang-ing from 15 minutes to daily and monthly basis, atthe spatial resolution provided by SEVIRI (MSG). Aglobal 10 daily composite product -NDVI- based onAVHRR-Metop is also available from 2007 onwards byftp (http://www.metops10.vito.be). Among those LSA-SAF products, some of the most relevant for include:radiation parameters (surface albedo and temperature),evapotranspiration, vegetation (fraction of vegetationcover, leaf area index and fraction of absorbed photosyn-thetic active radiation) and products related to wild �resdetection and monitoring (�re detection and radiativeemission from �res). An update of recent developmentsregarding shortwave �uxes (albedo, incoming radiation)developed at METEO FRANCE will be swept. Thisincludes notably the separation between direct and dif-fuse radiation components, also the data fusion betweenLEO (Low Elevation Orbit) sensors like EUMETSATPolar System (EPS) and GEO like geostationnary sys-tem SEVIRI.The LSA SAF is committed to continue this NRT ser-vice, providing products and service for the full MSGand EPS satellite series. In order to ensure temporalhomogeneity of time-series, the LSA SAF will reprocessthe most relevant MSG-derived products (albedo, tem-perature, vegetation and �re radiative power products)in 2015. To facilitate handling of operationally provided,MSG-based LSA SAF products, a post-processing tool-box has been developed. This toolbox enables (n-)dailycompositing, spatial sub-setting and remapping of prod-ucts and reached its �rst open release this year.

14:30-14:45: Comparing three popular meth-ods for monitoring weather radar antennapointing accuracy

1,2P. Altube, 1J. Bech, 2O. Argem�, 2T. Rigo and2N. Pineda

1Universitat de Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain2Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain

Weather surveillance, hydrological models and Numeri-cal Weather Prediction systems rely strongly on weatherradar observations and derived products. Therefore it isessential to assess the performance of the radar systemon a continuous basis for a dynamic evaluation of thedata quality.Within this context, three methods for monitoring

weather radar antenna pointing accuracy are reviewedand compared. Two of the methods use the known lo-cation of Sun as a reference. The �rst of these methodsis based on an o�ine radar scan of the Sun-disk andis of widespread employment in routine technical main-tenance tasks and implemented commercially by sev-eral weather radar manufacturers (Vaisala, 2013). Thesecond method detects and characterizes solar interfer-ences in online radar data for the retrieval of calibra-tion parameters (Huuskonen and Holleman, 2007). Athird complementary online method consists on cross-correlating measured ground clutter echoes with echoessimulated using a high-resolution digital elevation model(Rico-Ramirez et al., 2009).Daily measurements using the o�ine Sun-scanning pro-cedure collected in a dedicated campaign from Februaryto March 2014, are base for an intercomparison of thethree methods aforementioned. The analysis, when ap-plied for three weather radars operated by the Meteoro-logical Service of Catalonia, reveals speci�c advantagesand limitations of the considered approaches. A longterm comparison (from January 2013 to March 2014)serves to con�rm and clarify the behaviours inferredfrom the short term analysis.These results are potentially useful for both research andoperational weather radar communities requiring highquality data observations.

15:45-16:00: AERUS-GEO: An advanced ini-tiative for tracking operationally aerosolevents over any surface targets (includingthe Mediterranean Basin) based on satel-lite MSG/SEVIRI observations

1D. Carrer, 1X. Ceamanos, 1J.-L. Roujean, 2B.Six, 1P. Nabat

1Météo France, CNRM-GAME, UMR3589, Toulouse,France2ICARE Data and Services Center, Villeneuve d'Ascq,France

The major di�culty in detecting the aerosol signal fromvisible and near-infrared remote sensing observations isto reach the proper separation of the components re-lated to the atmosphere and the surface. This issue be-comes especially challenging over bright targets such asdeserts. A method is proposed to circumvent this issueby exploiting the directional and temporal dimensions ofthe satellite signal through the use of a semi-empiricalkernel-driven model for the surface/atmosphere coupledsystem. As a result, simultaneous retrieval of surfacealbedo and aerosol properties is made possible. Theproposed method proves to be capable of detecting andtracking the presence of anthropogenic aerosols, volcanicash emissions and dust events over deserts.The proposed method referred to as AERUS-GEO(Aerosol and surface albEdo Retrieval Using a direc-tional Splitting method - application to GEO data)is applied to three spectral bands (0.6 mm, 0.8 mm,and 1.6 mm) of MSG (Meteosat Second Genera-



tion) observations, which scan Europe, Africa, andthe Eastern part of South America every 15 min-utes. The AERUS-GEO AOD estimates compare favor-ably with measurements of several AERONET stations,MODIS-derived (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer), and MISR-derived (Multi-angle ImagingSpectro-Radiometer) products within a 20% of accu-racy. Results reveal the capability of AERUS-GEOto detect more aerosol events within a given time pe-riod compared to products derived from low Earth or-bit satellites. Evaluations were also conduced dur-ing the CHARMEX/TRAQA campaigns over Mediter-ranean Basin in 2012 and 2013.The higher availability of AOD products thanks toAERUS-GEO may bene�t the accurate monitoring ofthe aerosol radiative forcing. The AERUS-GEO algo-rithm was recently implemented by the ICARE DataCenter (http://www.icare.univ-lille1.fr), which opera-tionally disseminates a daily AOD product at 670 nmover the MSG disk since 2014.

16:00-16:15: Lightning studies in the frameof TALOS Project: Climatology, forecastingand nowcasting

K. Lagouvardos, V. Kotroni, E. Galanaki, Th.Giannaros, A. Karagiannidis, S. Kazadzis andE. Proestakis

National Observatory Of Athens, Institute Of EnvironmentalResearch And Sustainable Development

Thunder And Lightning Observing System (TALOS) isa research program funded by the Greek Ministry of Ed-ucation with the aim to promote excellence in the �eldof lightning meteorology. The main data set used is thenine-year period (2005-2013) lightning provided by theVery-Low-Frequency Lightning detection network ZEUSoperated by the National Observatory of Athens.The presentation �rst focuses on the spatial and tempo-ral (seasonal and diurnal) variability of Cloud to Ground(CG) strokes over Greece and the surrounding mar-itime areas. The areas with the highest thunderstormactivity are identi�ed and related with the underlyingphysiographic characteristics. Additional analysis fo-cuses on the links of CG strokes with indices relatedwith the atmospheric instability such as the Convec-tive Available Potential Energy (CAPE). The developednowcasting tools are based on the use of lightning dataand by high-time resolution METEOSAT imagery. Thelightning forecasting is based on the use of WRF nu-merical weather prediction model, in which a lightningforecasting algorithm is implemented and modi�cationshave been proposed based on the performed analysis.Both nowcasting and forecasting are veri�ed for a largenumber of cases characterized by severe lightning overGreece, observed during the warm as well as during thecold period of the year. Finally the relationship betweenlightning and aerosol concentrations is explored.

16:15-16:30: Comparing Di�erent Manners to

Characterize the Atmosphere for Meteoro-logical Applications

V. García-Santos, Ll. Pérez and V. Caselles

Department of Earth Physics and Thermodynamics, Facultyof Physics, University of Valencia, Valencia, Spain

Land surface temperature (LST) retrievals from sensorsaboard orbiting satellites, are supedited to the corre-sponding atmospheric correction, especially in the Ther-mal InfraRed (TIR) spectral domain (8-14 µm). To re-move the atmospheric e�ects from at-sensor radiancemeasurements is needed to characterize the atmosphereby means of three speci�c variables; the upwelling pathand the hemispherical downwelling radiances plus theatmospheric transmissivity. Those variables can be de-rived from the previous knowledge of vertical atmo-spheric pro�les of air temperature and relative humidityfor di�erent geo-potential heights and pressures.In this work, the above mentioned atmospheric vari-ables were analyzed for a speci�c weather station sitelocated in the north of Spain. These variables were cal-culated with atmospheric pro�les retrieved from threedi�erent sources; The National Centers for Environ-mental Prediction (NCEP) web-tool atmospheric pro-�les calculator, the MODIS MOD07 product and theradiosoundings launched at the selected site by the Uni-versity of Wyoming (WYO). Atmospheric pro�les from2010 to 2013 were obtained to carry out the presentstudy. Results from comparison of these two di�er-ent atmospheric pro�les with WYO data show thatthe NCEP pro�les characterize the atmosphere in amore �tted manner than the MOD07 do with an av-erage RMSE of ±0.2W/m2srµm for upwelling radi-ance; of ±0.3W/m2srµm for the donwelling radianceand ±0.03W/m2srµm for the atmospheric transmissiv-ity.Considering NCEP in turn of WYO atmospheric pro-�les when retrieving LST from satellite data can lead toerrors lower than ±1K, when applying a single-channelmethod. While using MOD07 pro�les introduces LSTerrors up to ±6K, depending on the MODIS spectralband.

Wednesday, 4th

Session 1: ClimatologyChairmen: Dr.Guijarro, Dr. Fita and Dr. Calbó

8:50-9:05: Long Term Changes in ThreeDimensional Middle Atmospheric ResidualCirculation

1D. Demirhan Bari, 2A. Gabriel and 1C. Ozen

1Istanbul Technical University Department of MeteorologicalEngineering, Istanbul, Turkey2Leibniz-Institute for Atmospheric Physics E.V. at the U.



Niversity of Rostock, Kühlungsborn, Germany

The residual circulation, which is the approximationof mean meridional Brewer-Dobson circulation, formu-lated by using transformed Eulerian Mean (TEM) equa-tions. In a three dimensional (3D) point of view theresidual circulation formulations includes also e�ect oftime-mean 3-D eddy �uxes. In this study the long-termchanges in the 3D BDC is analyzed because atmosphericpattern in the 3D approach are more signi�cant thanthose identi�ed by the 2D approach. In order to ex-amine the long term changes in 3D residual circulationERA-INTERIM data from 1979 to 2013 is used and theevolution of zonal asymmetries determining the station-ary waves in ozone and water vapor is identi�ed.

9:05-9:20: Synoptic Anomalies Resulting inPervasive Frosts in Iran

1P. Mahmoudi

1Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of geogra-phy and environmental planning, University of Sistan andBaluchestan, Zahedan, Iran

This study has focused on synoptic anomalies resultingin pervasive frosts in Iran with the aim of improving thepredictive capabilities of this phenomenon in Iran. So,to achieve this goal, Iran's frosts were classi�ed basedon a spatial principle into three categories, includingpervasive frosts, semi-pervasive frosts and partial frosts.It should be noted that this analysis only studies theyears having maximum and minimum frequencies thedays with pervasive frosts that were a standard devia-tion above and below the average for a 43-year periodfrom 1962 to 2004.At low levels of atmosphere for the maximum frequencyof days with pervasive frosts, a bipolar pressure anomalywith a positive value in the north east and a weak nega-tive value in the north west of Iran above the Turkey areseen. In other words, with a strengthened Siberian high-pressure system and extending its western tongue on theMediterranean sea, the conditions for establishment ofa high pressure system on this sea is provided that theresult of such an establishment would be pushing backthe low pressure system tongue of Sudan monsoon tothe lower latitudes as well as provided synoptic condi-tions for moving the cold air from the higher latitudesto the western part of Iran.It is also seen for the minimum frequency of days withpervasive frosts that the entire studied area is domi-nated by a negative anomaly, which its central focus ofseverity is located over the Turkey. Thus, the spatialpatterns con�guration of this group indicates the weak-ening of the Siberian high pressure and its subsequentlack of extension of this pressure western tongue to theMediterranean sea that as a result, the conditions forestablishment of a low pressure system with a cycloniccirculation over the Mediterranean sea will be provided;therefore, under these circumstances and with the ex-pansion of Sudan monsoon low pressure tongue and hu-

midity injection from anticyclone circulation of the In-dian Ocean (Arabian Sea), Iran's climate experiences amore humid and warmer conditions, which reduces thefrequency of days with inclusive frosts over Iran.

9:20-9:35: Medicanes in HadGEM3 N512 cli-mate simulations

1M. Tous, 2G. Zappa, 1R. Romero and 2L. Shaf-frey

1Universitat de les Illes Balears, Spain2University of Reading, United Kingdom

Medicanes are exceptional cyclones that form over theMediterranean sea with similar development (based onthe thermodynamical disequilibrium between the coldair and the warm sea) and properties (intense vortic-ities with a warm core) to tropical cyclones. Despitemedicane size and wind speed are lower than in tropicalcyclones, the severity of the winds can in�ict substantialdamage on islands and coastal areas.Recently, interest and concern about how climate changewill a�ect extreme events are increasing, including whatcould happen with medicanes. Most global climate mod-els do not have high enough spatial resolution to repre-sent these small cyclones, and additional techniques, likedownscaling, are necessary to build an adequate medi-cane risk assessment.In this study, we apply a cyclone track algorithm onglobal climate model data at high-resolution (about 25km, in the horizontal at mid-latitudes), which seemsenough to properly represent medicane-type cyclones.After an initial validation of the method for the fullMediterranean cyclone climatology, a medicane risk as-sessment is derived using present and future climaticconditions: The magnitude of the expected winds andthe frequency and location of storms are some of the as-pects that are evaluated. The results are also comparedwith those obtained using alternative techniques.

9:35-9:50: Homogenization and Trends ofSpanish Mean Wind Speed Monthly Series

J. A. Guijarro

Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), Balearic Is-lands O�ce

Mean wind speed monthly Spanish series from 233 sitesthat had a minimum of 10 years of observations during1951-2013 were compiled from daily observations at 07,13 and 18 hours UTC. Wind speed series derived fromdaily wind runs were considered �rst, but due to theirhigher rate of missing data, the three observations perday wind speeds were preferred for this study. This is alimited sampling for the whole day, but at the monthlyscale the correspondence is quite good, with an averagespeed bias of an 8% higher than the values derived fromdaily wind runs.



The selected wind speed series were homogenized bymeans or the R package Climatol twice: a) using a rationormalization; b) applying a cubic root transformationand a full standardization. First diagnostic graphics ofthe process showed a poor and incoherent spatial corre-lation structure, hampering the quality of the homoge-nization. Anyway, 360 sudden shifts were detected andcorrected in two thirds of the series that were found in-homogeneous. Therefore, wind speed series appear verya�ected by inhomogeneities, probably due to its sensi-tivity to obstacles and surface roughness changes in thesurroundings of the observatories.Wind speed trends were then computed from the ho-mogenized series, yielding values between around -1.5(from June to October) and -2 (from November to May)m/s/century. These negative trends are in accordancewith the wind stilling observed in many areas, theircause being attributable to a lower baroclinity in middlelatitudes and/ or to an increasing surface roughness inthe surroundings of the observatories.Due to the almost lack of conventional observations onocean areas, NCEP reanalysis were used to computewind speed trends over a wide domain including theSpanish territories. Di�erences between observed andreanalysis (on land and on sea) trends are discussed.

9:50-10:05: Extension of Mediterranean Sum-mer towards Spring

1A. Jansà, 1V. Homar, 1R. Romero, 1,2S. Alonso,3J. A. Guijarro and 1C. Ramis

1Universitat de les Illes Balears, Departament de Física,Palma, Mallorca, Spain2Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avançats, Departament deRecerca del Canvi Global, Palma, Mallorca, Spain3Agencia Estatal de Meteorologia (AEMET), Delegación enIlles Balears, Palma, Mallorca, Spain

The authors have already reported an important andpositive 2 m temperature tendency in May-June atPalma (Mallorca), as well as a simultaneous and highlycorrelated strong increase of local 500 hPa geopotential.The present work seeks to frame these observed tenden-cies in a wider seasonal and geographical context.A �rst �nding is the high correlation between 2 mtemperature and 500 hPa geopotential only during thewarmer months. This suggests di�erent mechanisms fortemperature change acting throughout the year. Highnear-surface temperatures in the warm season would bemostly associated with the dominance of a subtropi-cal anticyclone, associated with the northern edge ofthe Western Mediterranean section of the Hadley cir-culation. Therefore, higher temperatures in this seasonwould mean an extension of the climatic inter-tropicalarea towards the region.Highest positive low-level temperature tendencies inMay-June are not a local particularity but they arealso observed in a relatively wide area over the West-ern Mediterranean. Di�erent geographical patterns areobserved in other periods of the year. In July-August,

for instance, the most intense positive pole of low-leveltemperature tendency drifts to the East-Northeast, to-wards Russia. On the other hand, the 500 hPa geopo-tential tendencies show the following pattern: ridge ofintense positive tendency over West Mediterranean inMay-June, and this ridge displaced to the north-east ofthe Mediterranean in July-August.With regard to the 500 hPa structures present in May-June, a PC analysis of the �eld followed by a multiplelineal regression of surface temperature against the lead-ing PCs shows that half of the temperature tendency isexplained by the time evolution of a geopotential ridgecentered over the Western Mediterranean.These results are compatible with a northern expansionof the Hadley circulation, whose downward branch inlate spring would now be further focused in the WestMediterranean zone.

10:05-10:20: Impact of Atmospheric Circula-tion Patterns on the Airborne Pollen Dy-namics in Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula)

1M. Alarcón, 2,3B. Jordina, 1T. Majeed Husam,1C. Periago and 1R. Izquierdo

1Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, UniversitatPolitècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain2Institut de Ciencia i Tecnología Ambientals (ICTA), Uni-versitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB). Bellaterra, Spain3Departament de Biologia Animal, Biologia Vegetal i Ecolo-gia, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB). Bellaterra,Spain

Here we explore the e�ect of climatic variability on theairborne pollen series recorded in Catalonia (NE IberianPeninsula) considered of high interest due to abundance,landscape importance and/or allergenic signi�cance. Inthis sense, the relationship between the annual and win-ter (December to March) phases of the North AtlanticOscillation (NAO), the Western Mediterranean Oscilla-tion (WeMO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and theAnnual Pollen Index (API), the start, the end and thelength of the pollination seasons of 22 taxa collectedat 6 aerobiological stations in Catalonia during the 18years-period 1994-2011 have been computed. In addi-tion, daily back-trajectories cluster analysis has beencarried out in order to determine the in�uence of cli-matic indices on the main atmospheric transport routesfrequencies and the long range pollen transport. Ouraim is to determine the respective vulnerability of taxato climate variability, taking also into account the pollenprovenance area.Climatic indices showed signi�cant negative correlationswith the parameters API (except for �Corylus�) and pol-lination start (except for �Ambrosia�, �Castanea�, �Fa-gus� and �Betula�, the latter being Eurosiberian taxaoften long range transported) of most taxa, while sig-ni�cant positive correlations with the end of the polli-nation period of most taxa. The most vulnerable taxa(more signi�cant correlations) with regard to API were�Corylus�, �Olea�, �Platanus� and �Quercus� deciduous



type.

11:25-11:40: Performance Evaluation ofCMIP5 Simulations for Turkey and Neigh-boring Region

1Y. Yilmaz, 2U. Turuncoglu and 1O. L. Sen

1Istanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of EarthSciences2Istanbul Technical University, Informatics Institute

GCMs are advanced tools essential for simulating theclimate and changes in the climate system, however,their performances in simulating the regional climatecharacteristics could be quite di�erent from each other.A performance evaluation of the GCMs could be espe-cially useful to determine which ones to use in a dy-namical downscaling study, if downscaling does not in-volve su�cient number of them warranting an uncer-tainty analysis. The aim of the study is, therefore, to de-termine the better performing ones amongst all CMIP5simulations for Turkey and surrounding region in termsof temperature and precipitation. Model outputs arecompared for main domain (Turkey and the neighbor-ing region) and its subdomains. Taylor diagrams areused to analyze the outputs (temperature and precip-itation) of CMIP5 simulations. High-resolution grid-ded CRU (Climate Research Unit) datasets are usedfor the observational data. Study period is 30 yearsbetween 1971 and 2000. Overall, for the main do-main, superior results for temperature are found in thesimulations of `MIROC4h' of Center for Climate Sys-tems Research (CCSR) and `CMCC-CM' (The CentroEuro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici ClimateModel), and for precipitationÂ in the simulations of`EC-Earth' earth-system model of The European Centrefor Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and`CESM1-CAM5' of National Center for Atmospheric Re-search (NCAR). The analysis is currently in progress tocome up with a ranking that combines both temperatureand precipitation performances of the models.

11:40-11:55: Present and Future Variation ofdrought Patterns over Mediterranean underSeveral Climate Change Scenarios

J. P. Montávez, P. Jiménez-Guerrero, A.Olmedo, S. Jerez and N. Ratola

Department of physics, University of Murcia, Spain

Droughts have been and still are a natural phenomenonthat a�ects considerable parts of the world, causing im-portant problems in many sectors of the society, mainlyin agriculture and water resources. In the case ofEurope, they are particularly relevant mostly in theMediterranean area, the water resources of this basinare limited and they su�er unpredictable variations dueto the irregular climate in these areas, which are increas-

ing ever more as a result of climate change (Palmer andRäisänen, 2002). This is the reason for a reliable charac-terization of drought patterns over this area, in order toserve as the preparation of plans and programs to pre-vent and mitigate the negative e�ects of possible futurechanges in climatic conditions.In this work the characterization of drought patterns inthe Mediterranean has been carried out for the period1961-2000 employing the E-OBS data base from the Eu-ropean Climate Assessment & Dataset project (ECAD)(Haylock et al., 2008). Subsequently, we have obtainedthe principal spatial modes of drought. Diverse futurescenarios of behaviour from PDSI were obtained usingoutputs from regional climate change projections (2001-2050), run with the MM5 model in the framework of theESCENA project (Jiménez-Guerrero et al., 2013). Theregional projections are based on various global models(ARPEGE, ECHAM5, HDQ03 and HDQ16) under theclimate change scenarios SRES A1B and B1. Resultsshow a clear intensi�cation of the main drought patternsfor the next future.

11:55-12:10: A climatological analysis of diur-nal winds in the Adige Valley in the Alps

1,2L. Giovannini, 1,2L. Laiti, 3S. Sera�n and 1,2D.Zardi

1Atmospheric Physics Group � Department of Civil, En-vironmental and Mechanical Engineering � University ofTrento. Trento, Italy2National Consortium of Universities for Atmospheric andHydrospheric Physics (CINFAI). Roma, Italy3Department of Meteorology and Geophysics, University ofVienna, Vienna, Austria

The Adige Valley is one of the main corridors connectingthe Po Plain to with the inner Alps.It displays a gradually sloping �oor along the 150 kmpath connecting the valley outlet into the plain, nearthe city of Verona (91 m AMSL) in the plain, to theupper valley at Merano (330 m AMSL).Various Several weather stations are operated along theAdige vValley extent, providing regular measurementsof the main atmospheric variables, such as air temper-ature, atmospheric pressure, wind strength speed anddirection.A careful climatological analysis was performed on timeseries of these data for the years 2004-2013, based on aselection o�ng all the days in which favorable weatherconditions allowed a full development of valley winds inthe years 2004-20112013.Mean Diurnal meandaily cycles of along-valley windspeed were evaluated at each station along in the valley.Although amplitude and phase of local wind strengthturn out to be strongly a�ected by local topographyand land cover, nevertheless the typical cycle of diur-naldaytime up-valley winds - peaking in the afternoon,- and nocturnal down-valley nocturnal winds -, weakerbut persisting throughout the night - is clearly repro-duced observed at all the stations. This diurnal daily



wind cycle occurs in connection with the correspondingisassociated with a corresponding cycle of horizontal pres-sure distribution, as shown by the mean diurnal daily os-cillation of surface-level pressure at various the stationsalong the valley, from the plain (Verona) to the uppervalley (Merano). The amplitude of the diurnal surfacepressure cycle displays an increaseing trendin up-valleydirection, with the smallest value in Verona and thelargest in Merano. As a consequence, the along-valleypressure distribution changes with along-valley distancefrom the plain almost linearly at any time. However,the higher larger amplitudes of the diurnaldaily surfacepressure cycles occurring further up-valley cause a dailyperiodic reversal of the pressure gradient.

Session 6: Water cycle and climate changeChairmen: Dr. Scavone and Dr. Tan

13:00-13:20: Probable Impacts of ClimateChange on Water Potential of Turkey

I. Ozturk

Istanbul Technical University, Environmental EngineeringDepartment

13:20-13:35: Changes in water cycle at resentpast 60 year in Georgia

1N. Kutaladze, 1L. Megrelidze and 2M. Shvangi-radze

1The national environmental agency2Georgia's Third National Communication to UNFCCC

West and East Territories of Georgia are character-ized with di�erent climate features, which is mainly ex-pressed in precipitation amount and it's annual distri-bution.Some changes in mentioned patterns of precipitationcaused by climate change is discussed in the paper.Western Georgia's climate is sub-tropical with greatamount of annual precipitation, having maximums inspring and summer, bringing �oods and �ash �oods.Oppositely in East of country semiarid climate is dom-inant, with water scarcity in summer time. From an-alyzed annual sums statistically signi�cant increasingtrend have been revealed in western Georgia's mountain-ous parts, which is more danger, because of landslidesand mud�ows. As for seasonality most trends and allpositive are presented in transitional seasons and moreintensive in autumn. Reduction of summer sums is char-acterising most Eastern part, but this trend is less sta-ble. Consecutive dry spells in East Georgia is increasedon most analyzed stations, with accompanied increasednumber of meteorological droughts, which partly com-pensated with also increased consecutive wet period'slength. Heavy precipitation events, such as daily and5 daily maximums of precipitation, as well as number

of days with 50 and 90 mm precipitation became morefrequent. On some east stations 100 year maximum ofdaily rainfall in historical records, was occurred severaltimes in last decade. Most frequent from them in Tbil-isi, where urban scale precipitation redistribution causeddi�erent infrastructural di�culties.Future prediction for county expect intensi�cation ofmentioned problems, mainly increase of total precip-itation up to 50-ies of century and increase of heavyrain events up to end of 21 century. Additionally sharpdecrease of summer rains is predicted with high con�-dence for the whole region, what will necessary impacton water discharge in trans-boundary rivers in EasternGeorgia, as well as may reduce hydropower potential ofcountry in Western part for the mentioned period.

13:35-13:50: Long Term Analysis of RainfallCharacteristics Related to Erosion Risk inTurkey

D. Demirhan Bari and A. Gabriel

Istanbul Technical University Department of MeteorologicalEngineering, Istanbul, Turkey

Daily total rainfall data from 87 stations from di�erentregions of Turkey has been analyzed from 1979 to 2013.Precipitation concentration index (PCI) is used to iden-tify the characteristics of the precipitation. Seasonaldistribution of the rainfall data showed strictly assortedregions according to the PCI. The yearly variability andthe type of the precipitation due to being seasonal oruniform indicate whether the �ow is eligible to form asurface runo� and erosion. Soil's water storage capac-ity and the surface runo� highly e�ects the vegetation.The increase in the water erosion is liable to decreasethe vegetation cover. Hence the observed regional rain-fall characteristics is processed in order to assess the soilerosion risk by using Fournier Index (FI) and Modi�edFournier Index (MFI). The Black Sea coastal region ofTurkey indicates a high risk for erosion due to high sur-face runo�.

13:50-14:05: Analysis of Simulated SnowVariability During The 2013-2014 Droughtover Turkey

B. Önol

Istanbul Technical University, Department of Meteorology,Istanbul Turkey

In this study, snow cover and snow water equivalentchange have been investigated over highlands of Turkeyby performing regional climate model simulation forthe drought period (2013-2014). The severe drought in2013-2014 is quite persistent over most of Turkey andprecipitation decrease in all rivers basins are in range of%10 to %50. Since the snowmelt process over the high-lands of Turkey supply most of the runo� for the Eu-



phrates and Tigris basins, variability in snow accumula-tion is signi�cant factor in terms of the sustainability offresh water resources which also a�ects social-economiclife in neighboring countries. To analyze the snow vari-ability, the ICTP-RegCM model has been applied for10-km horizontal resolution and double-nested methodhas been used to downscale NCEP-NCAR Reanalysisover the Eastern Mediterranean region. The snow coverproduced by model compared with NOAA-NNVL satel-lite data. The snowmelt process monitored by de�ningcertain dates (March 1st, April 1st, May 1st) duringthe period of drought and it is clear that the spatialvariability of the model and satellite data are consistenteach other. Simulated snow water equivalent (SWE) hasbeen also analyzed during the drought period and theanomaly of SWE with respect to the 1971-2000 periodreaches 500 mm over the mountainous areas. SWE de-clined all over the Turkey except very narrow coastalband in the Black Sea region. These results are alsoconsistent with precipitation observations. The modelresults also indicate that the negative trend in SWE hasbeen found over the areas where the elevation is higherthan 1500 m since the 1960s. We also detected similardeclining trend in previous studies based on the futurescenario simulations and it is also possible that the re-cent drought has been enhanced by the human-inducedclimate change.

14:05-14:20: A comparative analysis of cli-mate change and impact on agriculture andfood security and also practices for adap-tation and mitigating climate change, TheCases and Asian Countries

Ali and Khan

African Asian Rural Development Organization, New Delhi,India

This research paper highlighting the comparative analy-sis of climate change and impact on agriculture and foodsecurity and also practices for adaptation and mitigat-ing climate change of Asian region. The Asian Countriesnamely ( India, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Malaysia, ROC(Taiwan)).Climate changes are an increase of total heavy rainfall,severe drought, rising mean sea level and possibly an ex-treme weather condition. Climate changes are seen asa major potential threat to national food security andsustainable agriculture in Asia. Agricultural sector is avery important to Asian economis and to this fact pri-ority has been given to the concept of sustainable agri-culture and food security. Climate change monitoringand forecasting capabilities have to be improved to giveplanners ample information to formulate a�ective policyand counter measures.As we Know, Asia is the most populous continent inthe world. In Asia, past and present climate trendsand variability have been characterized by an increas-ing temperature. In the region there is evidence ofprominent increases in the intensity and/or frequency

of many extreme events such as heat waves, tropical cy-clones, prolonged dry spells, intense rainfall, tornadoes,snow avalanches, thunderstorms, and severe dust stormsin the region. Furthermore, the region is highly sub-ject to natural hazards, such as the 2004 Indian OceanTsunami, the 2005 Pakistan Earthquake, and the 2006landslides in the Philippines. Such impacts pose addi-tional risks for already vulnerable communities strivingto combat poverty and achieve sustainable development.The Asia/Paci�c region accounted for 91% of the world'stotal death and 49% of the world's total damage dueto natural disasters in the last century. Therefore, cli-mate change poses a serious and additional threat topoor farmers and rural communities in the region wholive in remote, marginal areas such as mountains, dry-lands and deserts; areas with limited natural resources,communication and transportation networks and weakinstitutions.

14:20-14:35: Meso-scale Processes in theWestern Mediterranean and their implica-tions on the Water Cycle in the Basin

1J. L. Palau, 2M. J. Sales and 1M. M. Millan

1CEAM - Centro de Estudios Ambientales del Mediterráneo.Valencia (Spain)2Modeliza. Parc Cientí�c de la Universitat de València. Pa-terna, (Valencia) Spain

This presentation summarizes the main relevant �nd-ings, most of them already published recently, in regardof the forcing feedbacks between some tropospheric dy-namics on the Western Mediterranean area and the wa-ter vapour cycle in this basin.In this presentation we summarize the main featuresregarding the speci�city of the Mediterranean Basin,showing some key regional and local meteorological pro-cesses which drive, trigger or condition the Mediter-ranean climate and its eventual abrupt change (as, itis the case of the intensity and recurrence of droughts,�oods, heat waves, deserti�cation, etc. on the WesternMediterranean Basin). We also discuss feedbacks amongtropospheric processes leading to a positive synergeticsum of e�ects and the consequences of not consideringthem when simulating numerically the meteorology andthe climate evolution on this area.From the analysis of dozens experimental campaigns andeleven-year period (2000-2010) of systematic satellitemeasurements (MODIS instrument onboard of TERRAand AQUA satellites) and also from the results of somemodelling exercises on selected case studies, in this pre-sentation we present the following main conclusions:

• From ends of May to beginnings of October there isa net accumulation of water vapour and pollutants onthe WMB that favours the instabilization of the atmo-sphere.

• From the point of view of tropospheric dynam-ics there are two well-di�erentiated basins within theMediterranean Basin.



• Atmospheric physical forcing acting bidirectionallyamong the di�erent atmospheric scales (global and lo-cal); downwards and upwards). This important featureis not included in the current climate models.

• Among others, the inclusion or not of the above-mentioned feedbacks among the di�erent scales result inthe simulation or not of typical summer storms (eventual�oods) in the region.

• Local forcing is one of the trigger mechanisms of theformation and development of convective storms on thecoastal areas of the WMB.

15:35-15:50: Development of new formula toestimate groundwater recharge and evapo-transpiration in semi-arid area

1A. R. Salah Eddine, 1C. Brahim and 2B. Ab-delkader

1Geo-environment Laboratory FSTGAT, Algiers Algeria2University of Khemis Miliana, Algeria

The new concepts in hydrological science give an im-portant interest to quantifying groundwater rechargefor a best management of water resources. Di�erenttechnique was used to estimate this complex variable,whichever the classic techniques give uncertainty valuesof this recharge. Many research papers were publishedin this �eld of sciences, but in all cases the real esti-mation of groundwater recharge is not achieved. In thiswork we present the principles steps of demonstration ofour new formula to estimate groundwater recharge usingonly two or three parameters in a semi area we tack anexample of Djelfa located in south west of Algeria. Thearea of study was characterized by a moderate rainfall,generally around 300 mm/year, and the annual temper-ature average vary around 15 ◦C. The primary results ofthis equation are give an annual recharge approximatesto 16 mm/year.Finally we can generate the application of this formulain all semi-arid area, to make easy the operation of waterresources management.

15:50-16:05: Impacts of Climate Change onWater Resources in Turkey - A Focus on As-similation Capacity for Freshwater Ecosys-tems

A. Erturk, R. Albay Akcaalan, Z. Dorak, O. Gay-gusuz, C. Gurevin, L. Koker and M. Albay

Istanbul University, Faculty of Fisheries, Department ofFreshwater Biology

Based on monitoring data and climate projections, sci-entists highly agree that water resources have the po-tential to be strongly a�ected by the climate changein the long-run. However, there is no consensus aboutthe degree of the impact of human activities on climate

change.Turkey, that is located in the temperate zone is a rel-atively large country (780,000 km2) with considerablyhigh environmental gradients such as changes in eleva-tion, a high biogeographical diversity and several cli-mate zones that di�er from each other (such as the verywet climate of the Eastern Black Sea Region with morethan 2000 mm annual precipitation compared to dry cli-mate of the Central Anatolia less than 300 mm annualprecipitation, or the Mediterranean Coastal Zone thatreceives most of the rain in winter followed by a dry pe-riod extending from late spring to October with almostno rain fall). Data analyses conducted by several inde-pendent and institutional studies revealed that Turkey'sterritory is expected to be under a relatively strong cli-mate change impact towards the end of 21st century. Asof the �rst decade in this century Turkey was classi�edas a water stressed country. Higher temperatures andless precipitation are expected to increase the pressureon Turkey's freshwater resources even more.Water resources management deals not only with wa-ter quantity but also with water quality. Turkey as anindustrializing agriculture country is facing several wa-ter quality problems including organic matter accumula-tion, sedimentation and eutrophication in inland waters.We will present a prediction of Turkey's nutrient budgetfor di�erent climate change scenarios and a digest ofthe present situation of Turkey's freshwater ecosystems,with a focus on their vulnerability to climate change interms of assimilation capacity of inland waterbodies.

16:05-16:20: Impact of Climate Variability onContributions to Dam Watershed of Tafna(NW of Algeria)

A. Bouanani, K. Baba-Hamed and R. Bouanani

Laboratory num. 25, Department of Hydraulics, Faculty ofde Technology, University of Tlemcen. Algeria

Currently, the watershed of Tafna includes �ve func-tional dams (Beni Bahdel, Me�rouche El Izdihar (SidiAbdelli), Hammam and Boughrara Sikkak), these damsfed several towns and cities including Oran, Tlemcen,Ain Témouchent and Sidi Bel Abbes. Studies of thesedams were generally made â��â��before the 80s, thedrought is not yet installed, so that the volumes mo-bilized initially planned are currently far from beingachieved. Also, we present in this paper, the evolutionof liquid �ows in the basin of Tafna since 1943 and theimpact of drought on the volumes made â��â��to var-ious dams in the basin.

16:20-16:35: Climate Change and its Impactson Water Resources in Turkey

1O. L. Sen, 1O. M. Gokturk and 2D. Bozkurt

1Istanbul Technical University, Eurasia Institute of EarthSciences2University of Chile, Center for Climate and Resilience Re-



search

Turkey lies in a region that is highly vulnerable to cli-mate change, and the indicators show that climate hasbeen changing in Turkey. The station observations showthat temperatures are increasing throughout the coun-try. Summer temperatures increase more than those ofthe other seasons. There are signi�cant shifts in thetiming of the snowfed river discharges, which indicatesthat snow melts earlier in response to the elevated tem-peratures. No signi�cant coherent change has yet beendetected in precipitation observations. Future climatechange projections agree on an increase in temperaturesthroughout the country and a reduction in precipitationin the southern half of the country. An analysis revealsthat these changes will impact the country's water re-sources negatively by reducing the water potentials inthe southern basins. The projections that were basedon the high emissions scenarios (SRES A2) indicate wa-ter potential reductions up to 37% in the Mediterraneanbasins, up to 70% in Konya basin and up to 10% in theEuphrates and Tigris basins by the mid twenty �rst cen-tury. Little or no change is detected in the water poten-tials for the basins in the northern half of the country.The decline in the water resources in the southern basinshas the potential to adversely a�ect the agriculture, en-ergy and tourism that are important sectors in Turkey.

Poster

Session 5: Wind energyWater cycle and climate change

P5.1: Application of a Wind-Wave-CurrentCoupled Model in the NW Zone of theMediterranean Sea, next to the CatalanCoast

1A. M. Palomares, 2M. Espino, 1J. Navarro, 2M.Grifoll, 1P. A. Jiménez and 2E. Pallares

1Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales yTecnolégicas (CIEMAT), Madrid, Spain2LIM, Technical University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain

O�shore Wind Energy has become one of the main top-ics within the research in Wind Energy research.Although there are quite a few models with a high levelof reliability for wind simulation and prediction in on-shore places, the wind prediction needs further inves-tigations for adaptation to the O�shore emplacements,taking into account the interaction atmosphere-ocean.The main problem in these ocean areas is the lack ofwind data, which neither allows for characterizing theenergy potential and wind behaviour in a particularplace nor validating the forecasting models.In this work, the results of the implementation of a cou-pled ocean-atmosphere-wave model (COAWST) in theNW zone of the Mediterranean Sea, next to the Catalan

Coast are presented.The COAWST model (Coupled-Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave Sediment Transport Model; Warner et al., 2010)system has been implemented in the region consider-ing a set of downscaling nested meshes to obtain high-resolution outputs in the region.This work shows the main results of the COAWSTmodel adaptation and application to this particulararea, including both monthly tests and other tests inatmospheric situations, especially chosen for their par-ticular interest.

P5.2: Performance analysis of the WRFModel coupled to WindSim and WAsPModels for the Short Term Wind EnergyPrediction System of Keltepe Wind Farmof Turkey

E. Yilmaz, N. Goktepe, S. S. Mentes, E. Tan,Y. S. Unal, F. M. Sayinta, E. Unal, B. Onol, B.Barutcu and S. Incecik


In this study, we assessed the results of the short-termwind energy prediction system (SWEPS) that our re-search group has recently developed for Turkey. SWEPSuses the numerical weather prediction model (WRF), aCFD model WindSim, a physical model WAsP, and amodel output statistics method to improve the resultsof the models. Here, we present the comparisons ofWRF/WindSim with WRF/WAsP coupled model re-sults with Arti�cal Neural Network improvement. Thestudy area is the wind farm Keltepe located in the townof Balikesir where is the northwestern part of Turkey.We evaluated the coupled model performance by us-ing the hourly data for the year of 2010. Wind powerof the farm has been estimated up to 3-day couplingwith WRF, WindSim, and WAsP Models. The result-ing estimates of 2010 are compared with observationalwind power data in terms of error analyses namely rootmean square error (RMSE) and normalized root meansquare errors (nRMSE). Performance comparisons of thecoupled model WRF, WindSim and WAsP include thehorizontal resolutions of the WRF model 9km, 3km,and 1km. Wind power model results for each turbinewere evaluated for 24, 48, and 72 hours and season-ally. Consequently, both resolutions of the models showvariability at di�erent seasons for depending on the tur-bine locations including the complexity of the terrainof the interest. Moreover, our results also show thatWRF/WindSim coupling system may be better thanWRF/WAsP system for Keltepe.

P5.3: Economic assessment of CO2 emissionreduction in Latvia when part of CHP gen-erated electricity is replaced by small scalewind turbines generated electricity

I. Priedite



Institute of Physical Energetics

The paper illustrates economic assessment of CO2 emis-sion reduction in Latvia when part of CHP generatedelectricity is replaced by small scale wind turbines gen-erated electricity.As the base scenario is assumed generation of electricityin CHP plant. As an alternative scenario is assumedgeneration of electricity by small scale wind turbines.The study represents the cost of CO2 avoidance from abase scenario of the existing CHP plant.In this assessment is taken into account investment andoperating costs of wind turbine. A case study was car-ried for 3 type's horizontal axis wind turbines with ratedpower 1kW, 3kW and 5kW. The study is conducted forcommercially available wind turbines. The calculationis based on onshore wind speed hourly minimum valueof 4 m height in Latvia approximated according to eachwind turbine tower height.

Session 4: Numerical modelling

P4.1: A Probabilistic Risk Assessment ofTime to Rainfall of Turkey: a Censoring Ap-proach

N. Ata Tutkun and G. Ozel

Hacettepe University, Department Of Statistics, Beytepe,Ankara, Turkey

Several statistical methods such as nonparametric ap-proaches, quantile regression, neural networks, logisticregression are used for examining climate risk assess-ment. Furthermore, survival analysis is an alternativetool to make inferences for climate research and applica-tions. The Kaplan-Meier method and Cox-type modelare the most popular methods to characterize the timeto event data in survival analysis. Cox-type model pro-vides a good approximation to the survival functionand also its dependence on covariates. In the last cen-tury, the climate change is one of the most importantproblem. Climate change alters the rainfall patternsin Turkey as well as worldwide. It causes insu�cientrainfalls and irregular rainfall periods. We analyze therainfall data from the meteorological stations of Turkey.The reduction in rainfalls decreases the water resourcesin Turkey and drought seems to be an inescapable end.Therefore, we use the survival approach as the risk as-sessment tool in time to wet season and rainfall prob-ability estimations. The Cox-type model is applied todetermine the in�uence of some climate predictors. Wede�ne the onset of wet season as the date at which 15%of the long-term mean of total rainfall is �rst reachedand evaluated the related risk factors.

P4.2: Potential of Ensemble Data Assimila-tion Methods to Forecast Severe Convec-tive Phenomena Over the Sea

D. C. Carrió and V. Homar

Meteorology Group, Physics Department. Universitat de lesIlles Balears

The prediction of mesoscale phenomena which initiates,organizes and evolves over the sea is a extremely de-manding challenge of great importance for coastal re-gions. The afternoon of 4th October 2007, severe dam-aging winds and torrential rainfall a�ected the island ofMallorca. Reportedly, this storm produced F2-F3 tor-nadoes in the vicinity of Palma, with one person killedand estimated damages to property exceeding 10 millioneuro. Several studies have analysed the meteorologicalcontext in which this episode unfolded, describing theformation of a train of multiple thunderstorms along awarm front and the evolution of a squall line organizedafter the convective initiation o�shore Murcia at about10UTC. Couhet et al. (2011) attributed the correct sim-ulation of the convective system and its organization asa squall line to the presence of a convergence line at low-levels over the Alboran sea during the �rst hours of theday.In this study, we devise a mesoscale ensemble data as-similation experiment to analyse the predictability ofthe 4th October 2007 episode and the potential of theassimilation cycle to advect critical observational infor-mation towards decisive data-void areas over the sea.We compare the skill of 3 ensemble con�gurations in rep-resenting both the convection initiation, and the laterevolution of the squall line. On one hand, we test anEnsemble Kalman Filter which assimilates conventional(surface, radiosonde and AMDAR) data; and on theother, two downscaling con�gurations from the opera-tional ECMWF global ensemble.Results show that the 6-h EnKF assimilation period pro-duces initial �elds that successfully represents the envi-ronment in which initiation occurred and thus the de-rived numerical predictions render improved evolutionsof the squall line. Synthetic maps of severe convectiverisk reveal the improved predictability of the event us-ing the EnKF as opposed to deterministic or downscaledcon�gurations. Discussion on further improvements tothe forecasting systems are also provided.

P4.3: SAR Observations of Convective Flowsin the Coastal Region of the NW Mediter-ranean

1T. Vila, 1J. M. Redondo, 2J. Diez and 1,2M. A.Sanchez

1Dept. Applied Physics, UPC Barcelona Tech. Barcelona,Spain2Ports de la Generalitat, GenCat ZPC, Po. Marítim, Vi-lanova I la Geltrú. Spain.

In many geophysical phenomena with great environmen-tal interest appear simple processes that generate com-plexity and mixing (Redondo, 1995). This can be foundboth in the Atmosphere and in the Ocean as long as the



Reynolds number is high and the regime correspondsto a turbulent �uid �ow, The di�erent dominant sizesand the PDF's of the vortical structures detected corre-spond to the di�erent Rossby deformation scales, in theNW mediterranean, Coriolis parameter does not changemuch, but thermal strati�cation produces the 20 to 100ratio between atmospheric synoptic scales and ocean ed-dies. SAR images of the sea surface provide a tool todescribe the spectral turbulent �uid �ow and to inves-tigate the multiple scale structure, this geometrical de-scription of environmental turbulence can be modeledusing a complex hierachy of eddies or scales. The energyenters in the system at a 3D large scales and goes downto produce heat at the Kolmogorov micro scale (K41),the large eddies break in smaller and even smaller eddies,this is a self-similar description. Due to 2D �ows thereis also an inverse energy cascade, when two-dimensionalturbulence properties emerge at scales comparable withthe Rossby deformation scale or radius and energy isregulated by enstrophy cascade.Di�usion is measured in the framework of Lagrangianmeasures, noting the transition from a homogeneous ro-tating strati�ed �uid to a forced Coastal Canyon In-duced Patterns (CCIP) that arise by resonant interac-tions between wind and buoyant heat �ux (Redondo andPlatonov, 2009). The experiments described here inves-tigate high Prandtl number mixing using brine and freshwater in order to form density interfaces and low Prandtlnumber mixing with temperature gradients (Mahjoub etal., 2000). Experimental and numerical results are com-pared with Remote Sensing observations of the atmo-sphere, SAR images of the ocean can detect well thesetypes of structures over the ocean.The evolution of the turbulent mixing layer and its com-plex con�guration is studied taking into account the de-pendence on the initial modes at the early stages and itsspectral, self-similar information (Nicolleau et al., 2011).Spectral and Fractal analysis on the images has beenused in order to estimate dominant mixing structuresas well as the dispersion relations of basic instabilities(Platonov et al., 2008; Redondo and Patolov, 2001).

P4.4: Veri�cation of the WRF Model WindSpeed Forecasts for the Western Coastlineof Turkey

N. Goktepe, E. Yilmaz, F. M. Sayinta and E. Tan

Istanbul Technical University, Department of MeteorologicalEngineering, Istanbul, Turkey

Since wind energy sector has grown rapidly during thelast decade in Turkey, reliability of the wind power pre-diction has become more important due to the competi-tions between wind energy companies. Our recent stud-ies showed that it is crucial to use a numerical weatherprediction model for accurate wind energy predictionbefore using any local model, since the wind speed anddirection is not only dependent upon local e�ects butthe mesoscale e�ects also play signi�cant role in boththe magnitude and the direction of wind, especially the

interested domain is located on a highly complex ter-rain. On the other hand, numerical weather predictionmodels may have some di�culties resolving local e�ectson complex terrain especially near to the coastal regions.Western part of Turkey, having the highest wind energypotential, has a similar complexity that some wind farmsare both close to the shore and they have a complex to-pography. Thus the aim of this study is to understandhow the WRF model responds this complexity in thewestern part of Turkey. We present wind speed and di-rection model results of the WRF model for 4 di�erentmodel domains on the western coastal line of Turkey andverify the results by using near to coast observationaldata obtained 10 Turkish State Meteorological ServiceWeather Stations. In the WRF model con�gurations,the highest domain resolution is set to 1km by using 3nested domain structures starting from 9km resolutionwith the downscale ratio of 3. The comparisons of thedomain resolutions are also presented. The best phys-ical parameterization options are determined by usingsensitivity analyses for atmospheric boundary layer andland surface schemes and their errors from the observa-tions are determined. Preliminary results indicate theneeds for more observations on the coastline and betterparameterizations especially for the locations where theland and sea interactions are highly pronounced.

P4.5: Sub-Kilometer Dynamical Downscal-ing of Near-Surface Wind Pro�les in Com-plex Terrain

1K. Horvath, 2,3D. Kora£in, 2C. Smith, 4R. Vel-lore and 5R. Belu

1Meteorological And Hydrological Service, Zagreb, Croatia2Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada, USA3University Of Split, Croatia4Indian Institute Of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India5Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA

The vertical structure of near-surface winds is pivotalfor many research and application areas including in-cluding air pollution, wind energy, transport and infras-tructural design. Although observational and modelingstudies have been mainly focusing on the winds at thestandard surface level, i.e., 10 m, broader aspects of thenear-surface wind pro�les received less attention, espe-cially over the complex terrain. Furthermore, a principalquestion arises as to whether a re�nement of horizontalgrid spacing in mesoscale models can yield accurate esti-mates of the near-surface wind pro�les over the complexterrain to serve as a surrogate to supplement the scarcityof observations.Therefore, Mesoscale Model 5 (MM5) and the WeatherResearch and Forecasting (WRF) model were con�guredwith multiple domains centered in the complex terrainof central Nevada with horizonatal grid spacings rang-ing from 27 km to 333 m. Using observations from �vemeteorological 50-m towers, the model success in repre-senting winds, wind shear and directional wind shear isassessed using moment-based as well as spectral veri�-



cation metrics. In particular, we address the potentialstrengths and weaknesses of these two mesoscale mod-els from the wind energy variability viewpoint and alsoconsidering the appropriateness of the physical param-eterizations suitable to a variety of air�ow scales.

P4.6: Using object based methods to verifyweather predictions

I. Tegoulias, Th. Karacostas, I. Pytharoulis, S.Kotsopoulos, S. Kartsios and D. Bampzelis

Department Of Meteorology And Climatology, School Of Ge-ology, Aristotle University Of Thessaloniki, Greece

The advent of high power computing facilities gave theopportunity to use state of the art numerical weatherprediction models at high resolutions. Intense weatherphenomena can now be studied at these high resolutionsproviding detailed information about their characteris-tics. Verifying the results of the aforementioned numer-ical models plays an important role in the e�ort of im-proving them. Using traditional point veri�cation meth-ods present various drawbacks (double penalty problem,etc). To overcome those limitations new spatial veri�ca-tion methods have been proposed. In the present studythe ability of WRF-ARW model to reproduce thunder-storm days during the year 2010 is estimated using ob-ject based methods. Three 2-way telescoping nests coverEurope and northern Africa (domain 1), the centraland a large part of eastern Mediterranean (domain 2)and central Greece-Thessaly region (domain 3) at grid-spacings of 15km, 5km and 1km, respectively. Usingdi�erent boundary layer, microphysics and cumulus con-vection schemes an array of experiments is performed.A C-Band radar located at the centre of the domain 3 isused to evaluate the results of those simulations. Resultspresent the ability of the model to spatially position thethunderstorms, lacking, on the other hand, the skill toprecisely indicate their temporal evolution.

P4.7: Extreme Hot Days Trends and its Rela-tion With Changes in the Atmospheric Cir-culation

1,2J. A. Garcia-Valero, 1J. P. Montávez, 3J. J.Gomez-Navarro and 1P. Jimenez-Guerrero

1Department of Physics, University of Murcia, Murcia,Spain2AEMET, Delegación de Murcia, Murcia, Spain3Climate and Environment Physics department, Universityof Bern, Switzerland

In this work a methodology for attributing extremeevents trends to changes in the atmospheric dynamicsusing Circulation Types (CTs) is proposed. The methodmainly evaluates links between trends in the frequencyof the CTs and trends in extremes based on regional se-ries. Here is presented an example of application to the

occurrence of Extremely Hot Days (EHD) in Spain dur-ing the summertime from 1951 to 2008. Regional seriescomes from a regionalization of the maximum daily tem-peratures obtained from the Spain02 dataset (Spain02).Eight regions with di�erent daily time variability arefound, observing in all them important trends in theoccurrence of EHDs along the last decades, especiallyat inner regions of the Iberian Peninsula (IP). The CTclassi�cation considered here di�ers from others previ-ously used in other studies related to extreme eventssince regional series information is used, allowing to ob-tain more robust links between the regional series andthe CTs because of the strongest control of atmosphericdynamics over the regional than local variability. Fur-thermore, the sensitivity of results to the atmosphericvariables used for de�ning the CTs. Surface Level Pres-sure (SLP), Temperature at 850 hPa Level (T850) andGeopotential Height at 500 hPa (Z500) from the ERA40dataset have been used for the six CT classi�cations ob-tained using the variables individually and in combina-tion of pairs. The optimum choice of large scale vari-ables depends on the region under consideration, beingthe combination SLP-T850 which gives the best char-acterization for most of them. Finally, an attributionexercise of the regional EHDs trends to the dynamics isproposed. Results show that less than 50% of the re-gional EHDs can be associated with changes in the CTsfrequency, being even less than 20% in the regions withthe largest EHD trends, mainly located at the center ofthe IP.

P4.8: Evaluation of the Performance of aMesoscale Modeling System for Wind Re-source Assessment

1,3T. M. Giannaros, 1D. Melas and 2I. Ziomas

1Laboratory Of Atmospheric Physics, Aristotle University OfThessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece2Laboratory Of Process Analysis And Design, School OfChemical Engineering, National Technical University OfAthens, Athens, Greece3Now At: Institute For Environmental Research And Sus-tainable Development, National Observatory Of Athens,Athens, Greece

High quality wind data are essential for assessing thewind resource of a particular area. Typically, these datacan be retrieved from ground-based weather station net-works. However, the spatial resolution of such networksis unacceptably coarse for wind energy applications dueto the high installation and operation costs. Further,most of the existing networks do not provided informa-tion on the full range of the variables required for windresource assessment. Therefore, alternative wind datasources should be employed. Numerical weather predic-tion (NWP) models are considered to be one valuabletool for this purpose.In this study we evaluate the performance of theWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP modelin terms of simulating wind. WRF is implemented for



a full year, providing hourly data on a 6x6 km2 mod-eling domain focusing on Greece. Observational data,including surface and upper-air observations, are usedfor data assimilation during the entire modeling period,at 6h intervals. Wind measurements from 20 surfacesynoptic weather stations are used for verifying modelresults for 10m wind speed. The veri�cation procedureincludes the determination of common veri�cation met-rics, such as the model's bias and root mean squared er-ror, as well as examination of the observed and modeledwind speed distributions. In addition, the parametersof the observed and simulated Weibull distributions arecomputed.Overall, the results indicate a satisfactory performanceof the modeling system. The wind regime of thestudy area was reproduced adequately well, althoughthe model showed a slight tendency to overestimate theoccurrences of high wind velocities.

P4.9: Investigating the Local Circulations byWRF Model: A Case Study of �zmir

E. Tan, D. D. Bari, A. Shaghayegh, D. Sari andS. Incecik


The surface wind �eld plays an important role at theregional scale such as the dispersion of pollutants andair quality problems over a region, or the wind resourceevaluation. Speci�cally during the summer, strong sur-face heating combines with the terrain and land/watercontrasts of the areas to create a complex array of diur-nal circulations. Summer circulations over the EasternMediterranean is dominated by the Etesian which signif-icantly a�ect the Ionian Sea and Aegean Coasts as wellas �zmir and surrounding areas having with complexcoastal environments located at west part of Turkey.The aim of the study is to improve our knowledge ofthe circulations in the complex coastal environments of�zmir. For this purpose, our aim is to identify and exam-ine the e�ect of sea/land breezes under di�erent atmo-spheric circulation patterns for the two contrast seasonsin one-year study period. Generally, observational andmodeling studies have described some of these circula-tions, advances in high-resolution numerical modelingallow for a more comprehensive and three-dimensionalexamination. In order to simulate typical summer con-ditions (June-July-August) and winter conditions (Jan-uary) in 2011 over the �zmir and surrounding areas,a high resolution WRF model was run. A high hori-zontal resolution of 1km is used to provide an accuraterepresentation of the terrain features including coastalboundaries. To make sure the performance of the WRFmesoscale model with regard to the surface wind con-ditions realism of the simulation, it was compared toobservations on a collection of days representing bothtypical summer and winter conditions. Generally, it wasfound that the simulated diurnal wind, relative humid-ity, and temperature were close to observations. The

accuracy of the simulations to reproduce the wind �eldunder representative synoptic situations of the AegeanCoast is also considered in order to diagnose errors as afunction of the large-scale situation. The evaluation isaccomplished using daily averages in order to inspect theability of WRF to reproduce the surface �ow as a resultof the interaction between the synoptic scale and theregional topography. A special emphasis in this analy-sis is the in�uence of complex terrain on the accuracyof the WRF model in reproducing the measured sur-face wind conditions. The evaluation is accomplishedusing daily averages in order to inspect the ability ofWRF to reproduce the surface �ow as a result of theinteraction between the synoptic scale and the regionaltopography.

P4.10: Calibration and validation of a modelrainfall-runo�: Application to WatershedHaute Tafna Beni Bahdel (Tafna, NW Al-geria)

1B. Rahima, 2B.-H. Kamila and 2B. Abderrazak

1Laboratory num. 25, Departement of geology, University ofTlemcen2Laboratory num. 25, Departement of Hydraulics, Usniver-sity of Tlemcen

Hydrological modeling is a widespread activity amonghydrologists. The hydrological models now an indis-pensable tool in understanding the dynamics of a wa-tershed, in problem solving management of water re-sources(irrigation), in the predetermination o� loadingand the development of the environment(dam building)and the prediction of natural disasters(�ood simulationin the short term and prediction of low �ows). Thanks tomajor advances in the �eld of computing, many hydro-logical models have emerged over the last twenty years,especially those who watch the rainfall-runo� relation-ship, providing great �exibility in manipulating and gaintime hardware. The use by spatially distributed modelsof many physical and hydrological parameters does notmean they provide better results. That is why in thisarticle we have chosen a global model that can accountfor the behavior of the watershed without requiring alot of data and parameters to be calibrated. CEMA-GREF models GR1A,GR2M and GR4J were selected.The objective is to determine the characteristic param-eters of these models for the watershed of Haute Tafnain Béni-Bahdel station.This study of the rainfall-runo� relationship on an an-nual monthly and daily scale is based on �ows and rain-fall measured at the station of Beni-Bahdel. Model pa-rameters of GR1A,GR2M and GR4Jwere determinedwith satisfactory quality criteria. The long-term behav-ior of the dam of Béni-Bahdel, taking into account theevolution of the water resource and management con-straints can be studied at the appropriate time scalein hydrological model by forcing the outputs of cli-mate models. The results obtained by the simulation ofthe transformation of rain-�ow by use of rural GR1A,



GR2M and GR4J engineering models indicate that mod-els �to tanks� are more satisfactory than a model of�black box� type. Indeed the GR model takes into ac-count the chronological succession of phenomena andin�uence as well climate parameters (evapotranspira-tion) than physical and Hydrogeological of the basin(soil moisture and external exchanges)

P4.11: Evaluation of Wavelet and ANNAnalyses for Wind Energy Potential

1Z. Aslan, 2M. Altunç, 3G. Erdemir and 4A. Tok-gozlu

1Aydin University, Faculty of Engineering, Department ofComputer Engineering, Florya, Istanbul, Turkey2Faculty of Maritime Studies, N.E.U., Lefko³a, TRNC3Kirklareli University, Faculty of Engineering, Kirklareli,Turkey4Süleyman Demirel University, Faculty of Sciences and Lit-erature, Isparta, Turkey

This paper presents di�erent case studies on applicationof wavelet techniques to analyse wind energy potentialin Northern Cyprus. Wind energy, on the other wordsrenewable and environmental friendly energy potentialsbased on air-sea-land interactions are main sources ofenergy in islands. There are di�erent wind energy ap-plications: They allow farmers to have the potential fortransferring kinetic energy by the wind mill for pumpingwater, drying crops, heating systems of green houses, ru-ral electri�cation's or cooking etc. Larger wind turbines(over than 1 MW) can pump enough water for small-scale irrigation. The main objectives of this study are;i) to de�ne variations of wind speed and energy poten-tial in Northern Republic of Cyprus (NRC), ii) to studytrends, cyclic components, micro, meso and macro scalee�ects, iii) to predict wind energy potential by using ar-ti�cial neural networks (ANN). Wavelet methodologiespresent better results on temporal and spatial data anal-yses. This study tries to evaluate data interpretationprocess with wavelet and ANN analyses based on windspeed data recorded in two study areas Selvitepe andKalkanli in Northern Cyprus. Hourly, daily, monthlyand seasonal averages of wind speed data are analysedby using automatic station's records at two regions. Byusing time series and wavelet techniques, small, mesoand large scale factors and their roles on wind speedand energy potential have been analysed. MATLAB andSPSS programs had been used to study some statisticalproperties of the wind speeds at pilot areas. The hourlyaverage wind speeds are represented by a Weibull func-tion. Statistical properties of average wind energy pa-rameters were compared. The graphs and numerical val-ues are evaluated by using Wave-menu, under the packetprogram of the MATLAB Software. Additionally, somedescriptive statistics of the ground data are analysedby using SPSS Program. Advantages of ANN approachare its faster learning time, simplicity and adaptabil-ity in parameters. Results of ANN analyses evaluatewind energy potential, its annual and inter-annual vari-

ability, self-similarity; and relation with periodic andnon-periodic �uctuations of wind speed values in twostudy areas. Conclusion of this study covers temporaland spatial variations of wind speed wind energy poten-tial in NRC. This paper underlines the role of factorsin di�erent scales and their importance on wind energypotential variations in space and time domain. The re-sults of this study would be applicable in the �eld ofother wind energy modelling and combined energy sys-tems.

Session 2: Processes and applications

P2.1: Retrieval of aerosol optical propertiesfrom a multi�lter rotating shadowband ra-diometer over Girona, NE Spain

1A. Sanchez-Romero, 1J. Calbó, 1J.-A. Gonzálezand 1,2A. Sanchez-Lorenzo

1Group of Environmental Physics, University of Girona,Girona, Spain2Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Inves-tigaciones Cientí�cas, Zaragoza, Spain

Aerosols still remain as one of the major uncertainties inestimating the radiative forcing of climate change, espe-cially if compared with the greenhouse gases. The mostimportant of aerosol radiative properties is the aerosoloptical depth (AOD), which is a measure of the totalaerosol burden in the atmosphere. The spectral depen-dence of AOD, typically described by the Ångström ex-ponent (AE), is an indicator of the particle size.We present an analysis of AOD and AE measurementsmade with a multi�lter rotating shadowband radiometer(MFR7), that measures solar irradiance at �ve 10 nmbandwidth channels between 415 and 870 nm. We haveanalized 2 years of data of MFR7 comprised betweenJune 2012 and June 2014.A �rst step to obtain AOD for each channel is to per-form Langley calibrations. However, the daily Langleyregressions exhibit signi�cant noise mostly due to atmo-spheric variability. So, a calibration based on severalclose Langley plots is generated for each day. After ap-plying the calibration method, time-series of AOD foreach spectral channel are calculated on minute basis.Finally, we eliminate the data that are contaminated bythe presence of clouds in front of the Sun, average ondaily basis and calculate AE. We �nd that the wholemethod has an error of 0.01-0.02 in AOD and of 0.5 inAE.The daily values of AOD have relatively low valuesalong the year in Girona, and follow an annual patternwith maximum values in summertime. A prominent se-cundary springtime peak is also observed. The dailyaverages of AE range in values typical of continentalaerosols and present a maximum value during summer-time, so the summer increase in AOD is linked withan increased concentration of �ne particles. Comparingour data with those from a CIMEL sunphotometer of



the AERONET network located in Barcelona (100 kmsouth from Girona), we �nd a good correlation for theAOD, though, as expected, not as good as were foundby other authors with the CIMEL and MFR7 locatedat the same place. The correlation of AE is worse (butsimilar as found by other authors) probably due to theuncertainy of AE estimation.

P2.2: Heat waves prediction system in aMediterranean area (Valencia Region)

F. Pastor and J. A. Valiente

Fundación Centro de Estudios Ambientales del Mediterráneo

Since summer 2008, Fundación CEAM has been oper-ationally running a heat wave prediction system in theValencia region in coordination with regional health au-thorities. The system is based on the Regional Atmo-spheric Modelling System, run as a forecast model topredict temperatures in the Valencia region. Prior tothe launch of the forecasting system, a climatologicalstudy of maximum temperature on the Valencia regionwas run to determine the existence of thermoclimaticareas inside the study region. This work led to the dis-tinction of 30 areas with their own distinct characteris-tics and in their thermometric regime. Then, for each ofsuch areas, proper temperature thresholds were evalu-ated for the onset of alert levels. In the actual operationof the system, heat alert levels are issued by comparingthe model temperature forecast with the thresholds foreach thermoclimatic area. Before issuing any alert, ex-pert forecaster supervision is needed to approve or mod-ify RAMS model forecasted alert levels. The systemruns twice daily but only one alert level is broadcastedearly in the morning to the health authorities. In thisposter, a description of the system and its performancesince 2008 is presented. General results show fairly goodagreement between forecasted levels and actual heat lev-els calculated from observational data.

P2.3: Meteo-Climatic Analysis at LocalScale by Means of a Multivariate Statisti-cal Procedure

1G. A. Giorgio, 1,2M. Ragosta, 1G. Scavone and1V. Telesca

1School of Engineering, University of Basilicata, Potenza,Italy2CINFAI, UdR Basilicata, University of Basilicata, Potenza,Italy

We propose the application of a statistical innovativeprocedure, based on multivariate techniques, able toidentify the correlation structure between di�erent vari-ables measured in multiple meteo-climatological sta-tions.This procedure was applied to data collected from 1997to 2013 in meteo-climatological stations located in Agri

Valley (Basilicata Region, Southern Italy). In the recentyears, this zone was su�er a great anthropogenic pres-sure due to oil extraction and pretreatment activities.The main land use is agriculture (arable lands, vine-yards and vegetable cultivations) but also many forestssurround the area. The geology is quite uniform; thearea is characterized by sand and silt soils. In thisstudy, the meteorological data were organized into athree-dimensional matrix at daily scale [H years x Mstations x N measured variables], evaluating the distri-bution of missing data along the observation period thatcan strongly in�uence the e�ectiveness and the qual-ity of the data analysis. From this data matrix, foreach year, the best two-dimensional sub-matrix [mea-surement stations x measured variables] was identi�edfor applying recursively the principal component anal-ysis (PCA) and the cluster analysis (CA). The joinedapplication of these two techniques was aimed to putin evidence the information content of the descriptors(meteorological variables) and objects (sites), as well asto compare the behavior of the di�erent variables in thecorrelation structures. Furthermore, two synthetic mul-tivariate indices, could be applied, for assigning stan-dardized weights to descriptors and objects, in order toidentify the role of each variable in the investigated pe-riod in an unique and quantitative way and to read theevolution of their multi-dimensional correlation as wellas the occurrence of isolated events. This procedure mayallow to identify the redundant descriptors, to highlightthe behavior of each station in the correlation struc-ture, to distinguish among groups of sites pointing outextreme sites.

P2.4: E�ect of Environmental Conditions onthe Deposits of Seagrass Litter in two Con-trasting Beaches of Mallorca Island

M. A. Jiménez, R. Beltran, A. Traveset and N.Marbà

Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avançats (IMEDEA, UIB-CSIC), Esporles, Illes Balears, Spain

Although deposits of seagrass (�Posidonia oceanica�) lit-ter are commonly found along the Mediterranean shores,little is know about their dynamics, fate and the depo-sitional and erosive processes driving them. To under-stand this transport of seagrass material (from sea to theshore and from the shore to the inland direction or backto the sea), two beaches in Mallorca island were stud-ied (Son Real at the north and Es Trenc at the south).During 2013 - 2014, fortnight measurements of the di-mensions of seagrass' beach-cast deposits were taken toestimate the temporal evolution of its total volume inboth beaches. Wind speed and direction were obtainedfrom the AEMET surface weather stations close to bothbeaches to examine the role of environmental forcing onthe dynamics and fate of seagrass beach-cast.The amount of seagrass litter arriving annually at EsTrenc was 6 times larger than that at Son Real. Fromthe analysis of the wind speed and direction we esti-



mated that 50% the beach-cast that arrives at Es Trencis exported inland, and it is 21 times larger than thatexported inland at Son Real. The di�erences in themagnitude, dynamics and fate of seagrass litter depositsbetween both beaches are attributable to coastline geo-morphology, type of vegetation on land and wind condi-tions. Our results demonstrate a close coupling betweenthe dynamics of seagrass litter deposits and wind condi-tions allowing estimation of the magnitude of seagrasslitter export towards adjacent terrestrial ecosystems andthus assessment of the role of seagrass ecosystems be-yond the marine boundaries.

P2.5: Phases of the Sea-Breeze in the Islandof Mallorca

1M. A. Jiménez, 2G. Simó, 3B. Wrenger,2J. Martínez, 4J. A. Guijarro, 5M. Teli²man-Prtenjak and 2J. Cuxart

1Department of Global Change Research. IMEDEA (CSIC-UIB) Institut Mediterrani d'Estudis Avançats, Esporles, IllesBalears, Spain2Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física, Universitatde les Illes Balears, Palma de Mallorca, Illes Balears, Spain3University of Applied Sciences Ostwestfalen-Lippe, Höxter,Germany4Delegación territorial en Illes Balears de la Agencia Estatalde Meteorologia (AEMET), Palma de Mallorca, Spain5Faculty of Sciences, University of Zagreb, Zagreb, Croatia

In order to better understand the diurnal cycle ofthe Sea-Breeze (SB) in the island of Mallorca, duringSeptember 2013 and June 2014 two experimental �eldcampaigns have been conducted in the Campos basin(at the south side). A total of 6 IOPs (clear skies andweak pressure gradient conditions) are analysed usingdata from the AEMET network and the observationstaken close to the coastline (about 900 m inland). Theyconsist on a surface portable station (equipped with anIR camera and a sonic anemometer), a captive balloon(temperature and humidity) and a multicopter (temper-ature and humidity). Preliminary analysis of the obser-vations show a good agreement between the di�erentsources of data.During the �previous� phase (0430-0730 UTC) land-breeze conditions were present and after sunrise the sen-sible heat �ux turned to positive meanwhile the turbu-lence started. In the �preparatory� phase (0730-0900UTC) the wind close to the coast started to veer progres-sively towards the SB direction. As soon as the SB was�initiated� (0900-1200 UTC), the SB front progressed tothe inland direction reaching a �mature� phase between1200-1500 UTC. Afterwards, the SB �decaying� startsand at about 1900 UTC the wind speed was close tozero and the wind veered towards the land to sea direc-tion. During the campaign all phases were measured,except the sounding systems for the mature phase dueto the strong wind.Some selected IOPs are further analysed through theuse of high-resolution mesoscale simulation. It is found

that the model is able to reproduce the observed estab-lishment of the SB although the observed temperaturegradients are larger than those observed.

P2.6: A stochastic generation of daily pre-cipitation in Turkey

1L. Marotta, 2E. Tan and 1V. Telesca

1School of Engineering. University of Basilicata, Potenza,Italy2Department of Meteorological Engineering. Istanbul Tech-nical University, Turkey

A Weather Generator (WG) produces daily synthetictime series of weather data of unlimited length. Amongdi�erent WGs, there are those built in a two-step pro-cesses, a �rst-order Markov-chain for occurrence and anexponential distribution for non-zero amounts. Climgenis a widely used as WG that belongs to this kind. But,the main assumption of Climgen is no reliable for thestudy area or rather the existence of a linear-relationshipbetween the transitional probabilities and the fraction ofwet days per month (with the linear coe�cient constantand equal to 0.75).In this work, the capability of a new Daily PrecipitationStochastic Generator (DPSG) based on a multivariatequasi-stationary and weakly depending stochastic pro-cess, has been presented. So, the DPSG, that �ts cli-mate features including variability in frequency of wetdays in a month, has been developed for precipitationgeneration.The methodology was applied for daily precipitationseries (1960-2006) collected at over 200 Turkish rain-fall stations by �Turkish State Meteorological Service�.The reconstruction of missing data was carried out byan Hidden Markov Model, statistical downscaling tech-nique which relates the occurrence of weather statesto local climate according to their synoptic similarity.Then, statistical tests (�K-S test and Student's t-test�)were conducted to evaluate the capability in reproduc-ing monthly patterns which are maybe required for op-erational purposes in engineering. The results obtainedsuggest the �rst-order Markov chain is capable to cap-ture dry and wet spells, and that the single-parameterWeibull distribution function is suitable to generate themonthly amounts of precipitation.

P2.7: Mesoscale cold pool �ow organizationin the Pannonian basin

1B. Matjacic and 2J. Cuxart

1Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Zagreb(Croatia)2University of the Balearic Islands, Palma (Mallorca, Spain)

The Pannonian basin is a topographic structure in Cen-tral Europe surrounded by mountain ranges that allowthe formation of large and distinct atmospheric bound-



ary layer structures, di�erent from the surrounding ar-eas. The wide scale of the structure, of a characteristicdiameter of 600 km, surrounded by mountain rangeswith tops above 800 m in respect to the sea level, allowsthe formation of a basin scale cold pool in wintertimeunder high pressure systems. This phenomenon can lastfor weeks and has implications for pollutant dispersion.It is related to strong Bora events, when the anticy-clonic northeasterly winds push the cold air across theDynaric Alps that falls violently over the Adriatic sea.In November 2011 a high-pressure system was over thearea for more than two weeks, leading to the buildingup of a cold pool of the size of the Pannonia basin, withformation of fog at the end of the episode. There weresevere pollution events that activated alert protocols.The establishment and evolution of the November 2011cold pool is studied making use of the analyses of theECMWF, focusing on the role of the slope �ows fromthe surrounding mountain ranges in the formation, thediurnal cycle and the dissipation of this long-lasting latefall cold pool. The analyses are compared to availabledata near the surface and di�erences are discussed.

P2.8: Inferring cloud optical depth of brokenclouds

1D. Serrano, 2M. J. Marín, 1M. P. Utrillas, 3M.Nuñez, 1J. L. Gómez-Amo and 1J. A. Martínez-Lozano

1Solar Radiation Group. Departament de Física de la Terrai Termodinàmica, Universitat de València. Burjassot, Va-lencia, Spain2Solar Radiation Group. Departament de Matemàtiques pera l'Economia i l'Empresa, Universitat de València, València,Spain3School of Geography and Environmental Studies, University784 of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS 7005, Australia

Broken clouds present a three-dimensional structurethat is why complex models are required to study eachpossible scenario. However, this work presents a pro-cess of getting an e�ective cloud optical depth (COD)in broken clouds using traditional one-dimensional ra-diative transfer model, both in the ultraviolet erythe-mal radiation (UVER) and the solar broadband ranges.This method can be used only in particular conditions,when the sun is blocked with clouds and cloud cover be-tween 0.2 and 1. All measurements of irradiance weretaken every 5 minutes at the Burjassot campus of theUniversity of Valencia (39◦30' N, 0◦25' W, 30 m) usinga UVB-1 radiometer by Yankee Environmental Systemsfor UVER and a CM-6 pyranometer by Kipp & Zonenfor solar broadband radiation. In order to register thecloud cover for low cloudiness, an automatized sky cam-era SONA SIELTEC SL was used; it takes images ofthe whole hemisphere every 5 minutes. Therefore, thismethod is based in a combination of measurements ofsurface irradiance in the UVER and the solar broad-band, cloud cover and radiative transfer simulations bymeans of the multiple scattering model (SBDART) for

the years 2011 and 2012. Considering both spectralranges, the results show that the more frequency val-ues are between 5 and 20. COD values larger than 30ranges represent only 5% of cases. The frequency peakis observed in the interval of 5-10 with an average of 12.As a validation of these results a relationship betweenthe estimated COD and the cloud modi�cation factor(CMF) is established. These relationships are similarto those obtained previously by the authors for overcastskies.

P2.9: An Experimental Evolution of the FineStructure of the Temperature Pro�le 2mabove the Surface

B. Martí, D. Martínez-Villagrasa and J. Cuxart

Grup de Meteorologia, Universitat de les Illes Balears,Palma (Illes Balears)

A surface based meteorological station is installed inthe campus university of the Balearic Islands (Majorca)since 2012. The equipment provides measurements formonitoring the surface exchange processes, includingthermal soil properties and the heat �ux of the thinlayer close to the surface, water condensation at 2 cmabove ground level (agl), the surface temperature, andthe net radiation and buoyancy �ux at 1 and 2 m agl,respectively.During three periods from di�erent seasons in 2012(February, July and October), a column of eight ther-mocouples was installed to measure the air temperatureevolution at a high frequency between 1.5 and 192.0 cmagl. The �ne vertical structure allows to analyse in de-tail the thermal stability very close to the surface andits relation with the rest of surface processes observedlike the dew formation, soil and atmospheric heat �uxesor turbulent mixing.The present study will expose the preliminary analysisof the results as well as the instrumental characteristicsof the meteorological laboratory installed in Majorca.

P2.10: Solar resource assessment in com-plex orography: a comparison of availabledatasets for the Trentino region

1,2L. Laiti, 1,2L. Giovannini and 1,2D. Zardi

1Atmospheric Physics Group, Department of Civil, Environ-mental and Mechanical Engineering, University of Trento.Trento, Italy2National Consortium of Universities for Atmospheric andHydrospheric Physics (CINFAI). Roma, Italy

The accurate assessment of the solar radiation avail-able at the Earth's surface is essential for a wide rangeof energy-related applications, like the design of solarpower plants, water heating systems and energy-e�cientbuildings, as well as in the �elds of climatology, hydrol-ogy, ecology and agriculture. The characterization of



solar radiation is particularly challenging in complex-orography areas, where topographic shadowing and al-titude e�ects, together with local weather phenomena,greatly increase the spatial and temporal variability ofsuch variable. At present, approaches ranging from sur-face measurements interpolation to orographic down-scaling of satellite data, to numerical model simulationsare adopted to map solar radiation.In this contribution a high-resolution (200 m) solar atlasfor the Trentino region (Italy) is presented, which wasrecently developed on the basis of hourly observationsof global radiation collected from the local radiometricstations during the period 2004-2012. Monthly and an-nual climatological irradiation maps were obtained bythe combined use of a GIS-based clear-sky model (r.sunmodule of GRASS GIS) and geostatistical interpolationtechniques (kriging). Moreover, satellite radiation dataderived by the MeteoSwiss HelioMont algorithm (2 kmresolution) were used for missing-data reconstructionand for the �nal mapping, thus integrating ground-basedand remote-sensing information. The results are com-pared with existing solar resource datasets, such as thePVGIS dataset, produced by the Joint Research CenterInstitute for Energy and Transport, and the HelioMontdataset, in order to evaluate the accuracy of the di�erentdatasets available for the region of interest.

P2.11: Experimental Characterization of theSpatial Distribution of NO2 Urban Pollution

E. Mantilla, F. Pastor, J. A. Valiente, J. L. Palauand J. J. Diéguez

CEAM - Centro de Estudios Ambientales del Mediterráneo.Valencia (Spain)

Despite the major improvement of air quality producedin most of the European cities in the last decades, wherelevels of traditional pollutants have de�nitively declined(black smoke, SO2, etc.), the continuous increase of traf-�c density has remained unsolved some pollution prob-lems linked to vehicles exhausts (both primary contam-inants, NO2, VOCs, particles, ... and secondary, spe-cially derived from photooxidant transformation).From the atmospheric dynamics perspective, the urbanenvironment is usually a very complex scenario, withbig in�uence from the small scales of movement, in-creased by the tra�c emissions mobile nature, variablein time and space. The NO2 immission �eld in a city ishighly anisotropic, usually showing strong spatial gradi-ents, with high temporal variability.In this environment many questions arise: the need foradequate measurement of immission levels for norma-tive achievement; the need to investigate the system be-haviour in order to improve its management, with occa-sional adoption of correcting rules; the need to analyzerelationships between air pollution and health at a smallscale area; etc.The use of passive dosimetry for the characterisationof urban pollution has been widely used in several citiesduring the past decades, appearing as an attractive tech-

nique due to its characteristics: low cost, easy installa-tion in the �eld, possibility of large area coverage, etc.Results from an extensive NO2 measurement with pas-sive dosimeters in Valencia city (Spain) are presented.From several campaigns with high density measurementdistribution points along the city, both spatial distribu-tion and meteorological dependence has been showed.In spite of strong time variability driven by atmosphericforcing, the overall urban structure and tra�c distribu-tion seems to determine a persistent relative behaviourwithin the campaigns, as if the city impressed its �n-gerprint in the immission �eld. Such evidence has im-portant implication in the design of strategic abatementplans, as well as other air quality management issues.

Session 3: Remote and in-situ measure-ments

P3.1: Characterization of the precipitationvariation and its impact on landscapeschanging in Algeria

1D. Haddouche, 2K. Mederbal and 1N. BellahceneZekri

1Faculty SNV-STU, University of Tlemcen (Algeria)2University of Tiaret (Algeria)

The steppe environment in Algeria changes in depend-ing on the climate and society. Aim for sustainable de-velopment is wanting to reconcile economic activity, so-cial development and environmental management. Theclimate is very important because of its leading role inthis type of environment and precipitation have a highershare for the de�nition of the overall dry climate. It iscontrasted with a dry and hot summer season alternat-ing with a rainy winter fresh cold otherwise. However,the climatic trend is not always easily seen and is stillcontroversial.Thus, this research aims to answer the following ques-tions:

• rainfall it's been trending downward or upward?• The phenomenon of drought is still threatening?

The area of study is situated in the western highlands,the Algerian-Moroccan border. Our research focused onthe characterization of the precipitation variation over aperiod of 24 years, from 1983 to 2006. We are based ondata available from the meteorologic station of Mecheriaand remains the most representative station in the re-gion. The series of observations are provided by servicesof National O�ce of Meteorologie (NOM). The proposedapproach focuses on the search for variation of the dryseason during the reporting period and the study of interand intra-annual irregularity to determine their impacton landscapes changing.Depending on rainfall and Evapotranspiration (E.T.P.),we see that from 1999 the E.T.P. is much greater thanfor rainfall. Thus, we consider that this period is a se-quence of water stress (drought). This means, the region



recorded a net drying, especially during the last decade.Although it was marked by a signi�cant increase in rain-fall, E.T.P. increased twice the amount of precipitationreceived. Causing advantage of dry years sequences.

P3.2: Development of a surface albedo prod-uct from PROBA-V at the nominal resolu-tion of 333M: method and preliminary vali-dation around the Mediterranean basin

1J.-L. Roujean, 1D. Carrer, 2R. Lacaze and 3B.Smets

1Météo-France, CNRM, France2HYGEOS, France3VITO, Belgium

The main objectives of EC-funded FP7 IMAGINES (Im-plementation of Multi-scale Agricultural Indicators Ex-ploiting Sentinels) project are to (i) improve the re-trieval of basic biophysical variables, mainly LAI, FA-PAR and the surface albedo, identi�ed as TerrestrialEssential Climate Variables, by merging the informationcoming from di�erent Sentinel sensors and other GMEScontributing missions; (ii) propose an original agricul-ture service relying upon a new method to assess thebiomass, based on the assimilation of satellite productsin a Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) in orderto monitor the crop/fodder biomass production togetherwith the carbon and water �uxes. For time being, ob-servations from PROBA-V sensor (SPOT/VGT followon) launched in May 2013, are exploited to ensure con-tinuity in the production in the frame of GLOB-LANDservices related to Copernicus.A surface albedo is being prepared from PROBA-V atthe resolution of 333M. The detailed method will beexposed, which encompasses a somewhat optimal tem-poral resolution of 5 days to detect suitable changes. Inthe frame of PROBA-V programme, albedo products itis proposed broadband spectra in visible, near infraredand solar as well spectral albedos in the original spec-tral channels (blue, red, near-infrared, and middle in-frared). Preliminary validation will be shown for allPROBA-V albedo products through a comparison withground data and intercomparison with other moderateresolution satellites like MODIS and SEVIRI. Emphasiswill be put on the features that can be now detectedfrom PROBA-V along coastal areas and within ecosys-tem components owing to the enchanced resolution.

P3.3: The Theia Land Data Centre

1N. Baghdadi, 2S. Cherchali, 3J.-F. Faure, 2M.Leroy, 1P. Maurel, 4J.-L. Roujean and 5M. Stoll

1IRSTEA, Montpellier2CNES, Toulouse3IRD, Montpellier4Météo-France, Toulouse5IGN, Toulouse

Nine French public institutions involved in Earth Ob-servation, environmental studies and scienti�c research(CEA, CNES, Cirad, CNRS, IGN, INRA, IRD, Irsteaand Météo-France), have launched in 2012 the TheiaLand Data Centre, pooling their expertise and resourcesto make satellite data available to the environmentalresearch community and to public policy actors. TheTheia primary mission is (i) to build a national spacedata infrastructure able to produce value-added spacedata over land and provide services �tted to users' needs,(ii) to support the sharing of experience and scienti�cknowledge on methodologies relevant to process and usespace data for land thematic issues.To this end, Theia is working to produce data, products,methods and services linked to space observations ofcontinental areas, from local (ecosystem and territory)to global scale, and make them available to the usercommunity. It is backed up by a distributed spatial datainfrastructure (SDI), and by scienti�c expertise hubs invarious regions. The SDI links Montpellier (GEOSUDat Maison de la Télédétection) and Toulouse (CNESsupported by the CESBIO laboratory, and IGN).The SDI provides already through its portal(http://www.theia-land.fr) a number of satelliteproducts : yearly coverages at high resolution over theFrench territory with Spot and Rapid Eye, results fromthe Take 5 - Spot 4 experiment over 45 sites wordwidefrom February to June 2013 to simulate Sentinel-2imagery, time series of orthorecti�ed, atmosphericallycorrected Landsat data over France. Much more isto come : a �rst batch of 100,000 images over areasworldwide from the Spot World Heritage programme,provided free of charge for non commercial users, timeseries of river and lakes height worldwide, atmospher-ically corrected and monthly composites of Sentinel-2data over an area equivalent to that of Europe, a newclimate record of vegetal variables at global scale withAVHRR, and others.The organisation of science expertise hubs at nationallevel has been initiated. A number of science teamshave been created with the goal to prepare processinglines of value added satellite products, in particular fromthe Sentinel satellites, such as land cover, watered areas,snow areas, imperviousness areas, albedo, vegetal vari-ables at decametric scale, water quality and height, andothers.

P3.4: Calibration of Landsat-8 Tirs BandsFor Meteorological And ClimatologicalStudies Of The Mediterranean Area

1D. Caselles, 1V. Caselles, 2R. Pérez, 1E. Valor,1C. Doña, 1V. García-Santos, 1R. Niclòs, 1M. J.Barberá, 3J. M. Sánchez, 1C. Coll, 4J. A. Valiente

1Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Termodinámica,Universidad de Valencia. Burjassot (Valencia), Spain2Departamento de Ingeniería Química y Nuclear, Universi-dad Politécnica de Valencia. Valencia, Spain3Departamento de Física Aplicada, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha. Almadén (Ciudad Real), Spain4Instituto Universitario Centro de Estudios Ambientales del



Mediterraneo. Paterna (Valencia), Spain

The Landsat-8 (L8) was launched on February 2013,and operational acquisitions started middle April 2013.The L8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) has two ther-mal bands, 10 (11.60-11.19 µm) and 11 (11.50-12.51),aimed to provide more accurate Land Surface Tempera-ture (LST) than the Landsat-7ETM+, at 100-m spatialresolution. The �rst studies by the L8 calibration teamshowed TIRS temperature o�sets, and in January 2014they proposed subtracting 2.1 ±0.8K and 4.4 ± 1.8Kfrom temperatures measured by bands 10 and 11. Theaim of this study is to contribute to the TIRS calibratione�orts with the objective to solve the current problemsin order to can use L8 in Mediterranean meteorologicaland climatological studies.Ground transects measurements of LST performed in a100km2, �at and thermally homogeneous area of rice-crop �elds (39.295◦N, -0.308◦E in WGS-84, at sea level)close to Valencia-Spain, were used for the vicarious cal-ibration of the L8 thermal bands. Three di�erent sur-face conditions were covered during the measurementperiod: �ooded soil (water surface), bare soil and ricewith full vegetation cover, with LSTs ranging from lessthan 10◦C to 30◦C. Four TIR radiometers were used toperform the transects: two CIMEL CE 312-1 with fourbands (8-13, 11.5-12.5, 10.5-11.5 and 8.2-9.2 µm) andtwo CIMEL 312-2 with six (8-13, 8.1-8.5, 8.5-8.9, 8.9-9.3, 10.3-11.0 and 11.0-11.7 µm). Calibration againsta reference blackbody ensured absolute accuracy of allthe radiometer bands within 0.1-0.2 K. The CE 312 ra-diometers were carried back and forth along transects of100 m in length, and temperatures measured within 3min centred at the satellite overpass time were averaged.Field emissivity measurements were also performed.Signi�cant di�erences between �in situ� and L8 temper-atures were observed, and the recalibration proposed bythe L8 team was shown not to be satisfactory.

P3.5: Satellite Land Surface Temperatureand Ground Data for the Calibration of aDistributed Energy Water Balance Model

1C. Corbari, 1M. Mancini and 2V. Telesca

1Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering. Po-litecnico di Milano., Italy2School of Engineering. Università della Basilicata, Potenza,Italy

Distributed hydrological models of energy and mass bal-ance usually need in input many soil and vegetationparameters, which are usually di�cult to de�ne. Thispaper will try to approach this problem performing aparameters calibration based on satellite land surfacetemperature data (LST) as a complementary methodto the traditional calibration with ground data.The distributed hydrological model, FEST-EWB, willbe used that solves the system of energy and mass bal-ance equations as a function of the representative equi-librium temperature (RET) that governs the �uxes of

energy and mass over the basin domain. RET is thencomparable to LST as retrieved from operational remotesensing data at di�erent spatial and temporal resolu-tions. The LST is a critical model state variable and re-mote sensing LST that can be e�ectively used, in combi-nation with energy and mass balance modeling, to mon-itor latent and sensible heat �uxes.A pixel to pixel calibration procedure of soil hydraulicand vegetation parameters in each pixel of the domainis then implemented based on the comparison betweenthe model internal state variable RET and the remotelyobserved LST to better understand the internal hydro-logic processes. The traditional calibration methodol-ogy based only on ground discharges or soil moisturemeasurements will also be applied and results will becompared with the new implemented methodology.A number of case studies have been carried out rangingfrom agricultural district areas to river basins using datafrom operational satellite sensors and speci�c airborne�ight and eddy covariance tower. The case studies in-clude a maize �eld in Landriano (Italy), the agriculturaldistrict of Barrax (Spain) and the Upper Po river basin(Italy) and Yangtze river baisn (China).

P3.6: Angular Thermal-Infrared Measure-ments by an Autonomous Data AcquisitionSystem to Validate Satellite-Retrieved LSTProducts

1J. A. Valiente, 2R. Niclòs, 2M. J. Barberá and1F. Pastor

1Instituto Universitario Centro de Estudios Ambientales delMediterraneo CEAM-UMH, Charles R. Darwin 14, 46980Paterna (Valencia), Spain2Departamento de FÃsica de la Tierra y TermodinÃ¡mica,Universidad de Valencia, Doctor Moliner 50, 46100 Burjas-sot (Valencia), Spain

Routinely thermal infrared, TIR, radiometric measure-ments at standard weather stations may take advantageof the use of speci�c instrumentation to sample air andland skin temperatures at di�erent azimuth and zenithangles rather than using several radiometers �xed atspeci�c viewing angles. This type of angular measure-ments can provide valuable information for the under-standing of land-atmosphere interactions such as the es-timation of di�erent heat �uxes and other magnitudesby a simple numerical sum or integration of samples.By selecting the appropriate viewing angles and targets,they also can be used as �ground truth� measurementsfor the validation of satellite sensed estimates of skintemperature. The referred data acquisition system isbased on an autonomous device that can rotate auto-matically to attain certain zenith and azimuthal viewingangles and to perform measurements using a single ther-mal radiometer. The convenience of this con�gurationis the achievement of complete scans of both land andsky hemispheres by means of sweeping measurementsat prede�ned zenith and azimuthal angles and the useof only one sensor with one single calibration to un-



dertake measurements. By using a unique sensor, theachieved angular system improves sampling homogene-ity and saves in instrumentation.A prototype of this data acquisition system was de-ployed in the summer period at an extensive, homoge-nous and �at cultivated-rice area with full vegetationcover (FCV∼1) which has been widely used in exper-imental calibration and validation campaigns of TIRsensors in other previous campaigns. With the estima-tion of the hemispheric downwelling sky radiance, themeasured TIR data were processed to obtain ground-truth Land Surface Temperature (LST) in cloud-freeconditions and compared with operational LST prod-ucts such as the MSG-SEVIRI LSA SAF LST productand the EOS-MODIS MOD11A1/MYD11A1 LST prod-uct. Both products were shown to work within the ex-pected uncertainties, but a general overestimation wasobserved for the MSG-SEVIRI product during middayand a slight underestimation, especially for o�-nadir ob-servation angles, was observed for the EOS-MODIS LSTproduct.

P3.6: Cloud and Aerosol E�ects upon Sur-face Solar UV Irradiance in Barcelona

J. Lorente, Y. Sola, J. Bech and A. Ossó

Departament d'Astronomia i Meteorologia, Universitat deBarcelona. Barcelona, Spain

The variability and trends in surface solar ultraviolet(UV) irradiance has become of great interest given thepotentially harmful e�ects on humans, such as erythemaand DNA damage. During the last decades the sta-tion networks making regular measurements of UV anderythemal irradiance have spread out and the radiativetransfer models have also improved. However, the e�ectsof clouds and aerosols on both the measured and mod-eled irradiances is complex, owing to the large numberof properties characterizing their vertical and horizontaldistributions and their composition, among others. Inspite of this, it is well established that cloudiness in mid-latitudes is typically the main factor of the day-to-dayvariability in the UV irradiance.We analyze 15-year data set of erythemal irradiancefrom a YES UVB-1 broadband radiometer, belongingto the Spanish State Meteorological Agency (AEMET)deployed at the University of Barcelona. We also haveused cloud type and coverage observations from Obser-vatori Fabra of the Royal Academy of Arts and Sciencesof Barcelona. Speci�c events have been studied with thehelp of additional spectroradiometer data and total-skycamera images.We have considered attenuation due to clouds andaerosol obtained from observed and expected valuesat the top of the atmosphere and a radiative transfermodel. According to previous studies in Barcelona, bro-ken clouds can produce large attenuation but also smallenhancements depending on the cloud type and its rela-tive position to the sun. This phenomenon is even morerelevant on days with high erythemal irradiances when

the UV index can oscillate from 4 (Moderate) to 10(Very High) in only a few minutes. Similarly, althoughto a lesser extent, some atmospheric situations leadingto large aerosol concentrations attenuate the UV irradi-ance in relation to the previous days measurements andto the modeled expected value according to climatolog-ical aerosol properties.

Session 1: Climatology energy

P1.1: Interaction with climate and ecosys-tem of Saharan dust dynamics

N. Yuce

Hacettepe University, Faculty of Science, Department ofChemistry, Beytepe, Ankara/TURKEY

North African deserts are the world's largest sources ofatmospheric mineral dust produced by aeolian. Dur-ing my thesis studies, the impact of various growth me-dia on development of some bread wheat (Triticum aes-tivum L.) and durum wheat (Triticum durum L.) culti-vars have been investigated. The �rst time it has beenshown that comparable growth can be sustained by us-ing Saharan desert soil samples the tested and the re-sults were analyzed statistically. The e�ect on the vege-tative growth of plants of Saharan dust have been inves-tigated and physical, chemical and mineralogical com-position for its role in crop production have been an-alyzed (Yücekutlu, 2012, 2013) and thus natural min-eral dust interacts with climate and ecosystems. HowSaharan dust sources on plants growth will respond toglobal climate change, and how photosynthesis will im-pact the transport of bioavailable fraction of iron chem-istry to the plant. This paper reviews investigate onthe role of Saharan dust inputs in aerosols as a contri-bution of natural fertilizer, mineralogical composition,microorganisms, enzymes to the vegetation.

P1.2: Implications of Climate Change toCroatian Tourism

K. Zaninovic

Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia

Weather and climate constitute one of the most impor-tant natural resource for recreation tourism because dur-ing their activities, tourists are a�ected by atmosphericconditions. Due to its geographical diversity Croatiahas the potential for wide range of tourist activities andleisure. Di�erent kinds of tourist activities need di�er-ent weather requirements. For quantitative estimationof climate potential of di�erent kinds of tourism, cli-mate index for tourism (CIT) is used. CIT integratesthermal, aesthetic and physical facets of atmosphericenvironment and therefore is suitable for estimation ofclimate satisfaction that ranges from very poor to very



good. The thermal component is estimated using thephysiologically equivalent temperature (PET).Changes in climate potential of tourism in Croatia areestimated by changes of climate index for tourism inthe two future 30-year periods 2011-2040 and 2041-2070. For future climate, two randomly chosen sim-ulations from the global atmosphere-ocean circulationmodel ECHAM5-MPIOM under the IPCC emission sce-nario A2 were downscaled using regional climate modelRegCM3. The integration domain covered almost thewhole of Europe with the 35-km horizontal resolution.

P1.3: Compression of multiple drought in-dices for meteorological drought monitoringin the Eastern Mediterranean

1S. Mathbout, 1J. A. Lopez-Bustins, 2J. Luter-bacher and 1J. Martin-Vide

1Group of Climatology, University of Barcelona, Catalonia,Spain2Department of Geography, Justus-Liebig-UniversityGiessen, Germany

Drought monitoring is an essential component ofdrought risk management. It is normally performed us-ing several drought indices that are e�ectively contin-uous functions of rainfall and other hydrometeorologi-cal variables. We have calculated and compared manydrought indices (DIs) to monitor meteorological droughtconditions in the Eastern Mediterranean. Actually, thisregion has recently su�ered one of the most extremedrought episodes (1998-2008) in the last decades. Thiscalls for further study of drought variability in the East-ern Mediterranean. The DIs considered are as follows:Rainfall Decile based Drought Index (RDDI), statisticalZ-Score, Modi�ed China-Z Index (MCZI), StandardizedPrecipitation Index (SPI) and E�ective Drought Index(EDI). The computation of these indices is based onmonthly precipitation data for 103 stations and dailydata over 70 stations over the 1961-2012 period. The re-sults show that the SPI and EDI are the most suitableindices to detect the onset of the drought episode, itsspatial and temporal variation consistently, and it maybe recommended for operational drought monitoring.The EDI describes well the developing drought condi-tions (spatially and temporary). The SPI and MCZI arethe most consistent indices in detecting drought episodesat all-time scales. This study shows that the use of anappropriate time scale is as important as the type of DIused to identify drought severity. The choice of indicesfor drought monitoring in a speci�c region should even-tually be based on the quantity and spatial distributionof climate data available and on the ability of the indexto consistently detect spatial and temporal variationsduring a drought episode.

P1.4: Detection of trends in precipitationduring 1970-2010 in wadi wahrane basin,northwest Algeria

M. Achite and A. K. Toubal

Laboratory of Water and Environment, Hassiba Ben BoualiUniversity, Chlef, Algeria.

Precipitation is an important component of the hydro-logical cycle and its change would be of great signif-icance for water resources planning, irrigation controland agricultural production. The main purpose of thisstudy was to investigate temporal variations in precip-itation (P) for 4 stations in wadi Ouahrane basin innorthwest Algeria for the period 1970-2010. Signi�canttrends were identi�ed using the Mann-Kendall test, theSen's slope estimator and the linear regression. Analysisof the precipitation data revealed a signi�cant increas-ing trend in 42% of the stations at the 95% and 99%con�dence levels. To put the changes in perspective,the trend in Precipitation averaged over all 4 stationswas (+)80 mm per decade.

P1.6: Building and Analyzing a Solar Radia-tion Series for Girona, NE of Iberian Penin-sula (1986-2013)

1J. Calbó, 1J.-A. González, 1A. Sanchez-Lorenzoand 1,2A. Sanchez-Romero

1Departament de Física, Universitat de Girona2Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Consejo Superior de Inves-tigaciones Cientí�cas, Zaragoza

Solar radiation measurements at the University ofGirona (NE Iberian Peninsula) started in 1986, whenthe Catalan Institute for Energy (ICAEN) installed twopyranometers. Speci�cally, two Kipp & Zonen CM11devices were set up, one of them provided with a shad-owband in order to measure di�use irradiance, while theother was intended for measuring the global horizontalirradiance. Since then, the radiometric station has beenremarkably improved. Currently, there are two otherpyranometers, which are conveniently ventilated; one ofthem is set up on a sun tracker with a shadowing spherefor measurement of the di�use component. In addition,the direct (beam) component is also measured by meansof a Kipp & Zonen CH1 pyrheliometer. All these in-struments are periodically calibrated against traceablestandards. The station is inspected daily, and all dataare recorded at 1 minute resolution, according with therecommendations from the Baseline Surface RadiationNetwork (BSRN). The present work explains the build-ing of a series for the whole period, by adding segmentsof data produced by the di�erent instruments. Particu-lar e�ort is put on the quality control of the data (for ex-ample by means of checking the consistency of the threeirradiance components, when available) and the homo-geneity of the obtained series. The di�use component,when measured with shadowband, presents several is-sues, including the correct positioning of the band, andthe correction for the part of the sky that is maskedby the band. From the original data, series of hourly,daily, and monthly irradiation are generated. Subse-



quently, the temporal evolution of the obtained seriesis analyzed, in the framework of the recent brighteningreported for other areas of the Iberian Peninsula andSouthern France. Regarding global irradiance, a trendof about +3 Wm−2 per decade, mostly due to radiationincreases in summertime, is found.

P1.6: Impact of climate change on severalwine-growing regions of Spain

1A. Amengual, 1J. Cuxart and 1J. Vallespir

1Grup de Meteorologia, Departament de Física, Universitatde les Illes Balears, Palma, Mallorca, Spain

Spain is one of the great wine producers worldwide: �rstin the ranking by plantings, third in production and thesecond largest exporter in terms of volume. Nowadays,many Spanish regions are close to their optimum grow-ing season temperatures for vineyards, as these areashave experienced growing season warming trends sincethe mid-twentieth century. Evaluating the future suit-ability of the Spanish wine-growing regions has becomean issue of crucial importance. To this end, we haveassessed climate change impacts over six representativeand well-known wine-growing regions in Spain. Dailyobserved series of 2 m maximum and minimum temper-atures, precipitation, 2 m relative humidity, cloud coverand 10 m wind speed have been used in order to deter-mine the present climate potential for wine over these ar-eas. For future projections, daily averaged meteorolog-ical variables have been obtained from a set of regionalclimate models (RCMs) within the European ENSEM-BLES project. The adoption of a multimodel ensem-ble strategy allows quantifying the uncertainties aris-ing from model errors and boundary conditions. As cli-mate change impacts are not likely to be uniform acrossdi�erent regions of Spain, we have applied a quantile-quantile adjustment in order to use simulated atmo-spheric parameters properly at local scales. Results indi-cate (i) a signi�cant increase in the temperature rangesfor the ripening period, (ii) a steady decrease on theavailable annual water resources and (iii) exceedence ofclimatic threshold for suitable growing of vineyards inthese Spanish regions producing high-quality grapes atthe margins of their climatic limits. Therefore, warmerconditions in these regions could lead to move grapegrowing and wine production towards more poleward orupward locations. In fact, results indicate that climatechange could push northern Spanish regions into moreoptimal climatic regimes for the production of severalvarietals.

P1.7: Use of Statistical Methods for Spatial-ization of Climatic Parameters in Algeria

K. Baba-Hamed, A. Bouanani, F. Saouli and S.Belbachir

Laboratory num. 25, Department of Hydraulics, Faculty ofde Technology, University of Tlemcen. Algeria

The local climate in�uences the lifestyle of its inhabi-tants and its vegetation. In order to address this issuewe conducted a study in which we present a cartographicanalysis of the main elements of the climate of Algeria.To do this, we have relied exclusively on monthlyweather data series from 1973 to 2009 from sixty sixstations spatially located on Algerian territory and aseries from 1973 to 2009.In this paper, we tried to make a model based on the sta-tistical method for multiple regression through a princi-pal component analysis.The examination of the in�uence of meteorological pa-rameters used eight showed the share of each variable inthe climate regionalization.Zoning obtained showed a breakdown of Algeria in �vehomogeneous within which the behavior is similar cli-mate zones.

P1.8: Analysis of the Occurrence of ExtremeTemperatures in the Iberian Peninsula in aRecent 20-Years Period

M. Alarcón and A. J. Mohammed

Departament de Física i Enginyeria Nuclear, UniversitatPolitècnica de Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain

The occurrence of heat waves and cold spells is hav-ing a special attention in the last years due to theirimpact in human health, ecosystems and other aspectssuch as economy. This work focuses in the analysis ofthe extreme temperature events in the Iberian Penin-sula for the period 1994-2013. To this end, we usedthe 12-hourly maximum and minimum temperatures at2m height from the ERA-interim reanalysis database(ECMWF), with a 1◦x1◦horizontal resolution in a 10x10 grid points domain covering the region. The hot(cold) extremes were de�ned as the maximum (mini-mum) temperatures above (below) the 99.9 th (0.1 th)percentile of the whole dataset.High temporal variability was obtained, with years inwhich the frequency of extremes was high (2003 and2012 for hot events, 2005 and 2012 for cold events) andothers in which it was low (1997 and 2002 for hot events,1998 and 2002 for cold events). August was the monthwith maximum frequency of hot extremes, while Jan-uary and February were for the cold ones.The in�uence of the climate variability in the occurrenceof temperature extremes was also analyzed. Thereby,the Spearman and Kendall correlations between the fre-quency of extremes and the most in�uencing modes ofclimate variability a�ecting Western Mediterranean, theNorth Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Western Mediter-ranean Oscillation (WeMO) and the Arctic Oscillation(AO), were computed. These correlations were all neg-ative for cold extremes (only signi�cant with NAO andAO) showing that the wetter and less insolated condi-tions associated to the negative mode of the climatic in-dices in eastern Iberian Peninsula favors the occurrenceof cold extreme episodes.Atmospheric back-trajectories starting on the date



of the extremes were computed using the HybridSingle-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model(HYSPLIT-4) of the National Oceanic and AtmosphericAdministration (NOAA), in order to draw up the con-centration �elds corresponding to the provenance re-gions of the air-masses responsible of the extremeepisodes.

P1.9: Impact of Atmospheric CirculationPatterns on the Airborne Pollen Dynamicsin Catalonia (NE Iberian Peninsula)

1M. Alarcón, 2,3J. Belmonte, 1T. Majeed Husam,1C. Periago and 1R. Izquierdo

1Dep. de F±ica i Enginyeria Nuclear, Universitat Politècnicade Catalunya, Barcelona, Spain2Institut de Ciencia i TecnologÃa Ambientals (ICTA), Uni-versitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra, Spain3Departament de Biologia Animal, Biologia Vegetal i Ecolo-gia, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB), Bellaterra,Spain

Here we explore the e�ect of climatic variability on theairborne pollen series recorded in Catalonia (NE IberianPeninsula) considered of high interest due to abundance,landscape importance and/or allergenic signi�cance. Inthis sense, the relationship between the annual and win-ter (December to March) phases of the North AtlanticOscillation (NAO), the Western Mediterranean Oscilla-tion (WeMO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and theAnnual Pollen Index (API), the start, the end and thelength of the pollination seasons of 22 taxa collectedat 6 aerobiological stations in Catalonia during the 18years-period 1994-2011 have been computed. In addi-tion, daily back-trajectories cluster analysis has beencarried out in order to determine the in�uence of cli-matic indices on the main atmospheric transport routesfrequencies and the long range pollen transport. Ouraim is to determine the respective vulnerability of taxato climate variability, taking also into account the pollenprovenance area. Climatic indices showed signi�cantnegative correlations with the parameters API (exceptfor Corylus) and pollination start (except for Ambrosia,Castanea, Fagus and Betula, the latter being Eurosi-berian taxa often long range transported) of most taxa,while signi�cant positive correlations with the end ofthe pollination period of most taxa. The most vulner-able taxa (more signi�cant correlations) with regard toAPI were Corylus, Olea, Platanus and Quercus decidu-ous type.

P1.10: Investigation on Heatwaves overTurkey and Leading Atmospheric Patterns

S. I. Bilgen, C. Yuruk, N. Goktepe, E. Tan, Y.S. Ünal and S. S. Mentes


Although there is no standard de�nition of heat wave,it is generally de�ned as uncomfortably hot and humidweather conditions, prolonged for more than three days.Since comfort level may vary depending on the localconditions and regular practice, the threshold of a heatwave event should be de�ned according to these familiar-ities. Heat waves are also classi�ed, as extreme eventssuch as heavy rainfall, �ood, and droughts. Althoughthese events occur rarely their impact can be substan-tial. Depending on their severity and duration, heatwaves can be a deadly threat on human health and onecosystems. The recent IPCC report AR5 (2013) em-phasizes that the magnitude, frequency, and the dura-tion of heat waves may increase depending on the locale�ects due to the climate change. Therefore, the aimof this study is to determine heat wave events occurredover Turkey and categorize them in terms of their fre-quency, duration and intensity. Daily maximum tem-perature observations are used for the period between1960 and 2013 at 238 stations. 90th percentile of themaximum temperatures between 1970 and 2000 at eachstation is used as a threshold value to de�ne the hotday, and if the temperatures continue to stay above thede�ned threshold for at least three days, it is called asheat wave. General tendency of the heat waves in termsof frequency and duration are investigated for last 53years. For each heat wave category, the atmosphericconditions leading to the heat waves are explored byanalyzing geopotential height, temperature, wind andspeci�c humidity patterns at the pressure levels of 1000hPa, 850hPa and 500hPa of ERA interim re-analysisdata.

P1.11: Interannual Variations of Precipi-tation and Temperature Observations inTurkey

C. Yürük, S. I. Bilgen, Y. S. Ünal and S. Incecik

Istanbul Technical University, Department Of Meteorology,Turkey

The characterization of temperature and precipitation�elds over Turkey presents a complicated spatial andtemporal patterns due to the land sea contrasts andcomplex topography of the region. The goal of thestudy is to determine the temporal and spatial variabil-ity of temperature and precipitation �elds to better un-derstand Turkey's climate. The climatic e�ects of theNAO and other teleconnection indices in the North At-lantic region have been widely studied showing it to bethe important reference of climate variability in Europe.However, there are very limited e�orts in explaining thelinks related with climate variability in Turkey. Theinter-annual variability of precipitation and temperaturecollected from 238 stations for the period of 1960-2013is analyzed, and the link between the inter-annual vari-ability and the teleconnection patterns is investigatedusing teleconnection indices such as NAO, ENSO, AOand NCP. Decompositions of the temperature and pre-cipitation observations to the oscillatory components



are accomplished by using a data adaptive method ofSingular Spectrum Analysis (SSA). Maximum EntropyMethod (MEM) is used to estimate the dominant pe-riodicity of each temporal-principle-component. Andthen reconstructed time series obtained after �lteringout high frequency oscillations and noise. Since SSAis a data adaptive technique, it performs well even ona short and noise time series. Filtered observations arecorrelated with indices of NAO, ENSO, AO and NCP.The correlation patterns are evaluated.

P1.12: The Regional Climatological Networkof Sardinia

A. M. S. Delitala

ARPAS, Regional Environmental Defense Agency of Sar-dinia, Meteo-climate Dept.

Two decades of scienti�c activity on monitoring climatechange urged meteorological services to comprehend theimportance of reliable networks of climatological sta-tions dedicated to long term unperturbed measures ofmeteorological quantities.With that aim in mind, the Regional Environmental De-fense Agency of Sardinia is creating the regional clima-tological network of Sardinia and is dedicating a signif-icant investment to it.The �Regional Climatological Network of Sardinia� ismade of a few tens of stations that were selected oneby one, according to the length of the time series ofmeasures, to the position of the stations during the pastdecades and to the continuity of measures.Many stations still exists and many more are going tobe reinstalled in the precise historical site, if it is stillavailable.The network will be presented and the analyses leadingto the choice of each station will be described.

P1.13: The In�uence of the MediterraneanSea on the Annual Lightning Distributionin Catalonia

N. Pineda and X. Soler

1Servei Meteorològic de Catalunya. Barcelona, Spain

The highest lightning densities in the Iberian Peninsulaoccur over mountainous regions of the North-easternpart (Pyrenees and Sistema Iberico). This mountainranges surround the region of Catalonia (32,000 km2),which has an average lightning �ash density of 2.0 CG�ash km−2year−1 (ten years average, 2004-2013). Highdensities are also observed along the northern coastlinesof the Mediterranean. While there is a clear prefer-ence for higher �ash densities over land compared to thesea, the Balearic Sea (between the Iberian north-easternCoast and the Balearic Islands) has lightning densitiessimilar to the ones of the Catalan coast. The presentwork shows that, in spite of the similar �gures, there is

a land-sea contrast. The di�erent distributions as wellas the land-sea interactions are analysed here using twoapproaches: the monthly spatial distributions and thedaily hour frequencies. Data used comes from the TotalLightning Location System operated by the Meteoro-logical Service of Catalonia, which covers Catalonia aswell as the majority of the Balearic Sea. The monthlyanalysis shows that lightning inland peaks during thesummer months, as surface heating becomes the mainsource of instability and convection. A switch in thedistribution occurs during September, As the lightningactivity moves to the sea, with a sharp increase, particu-larly along coastlines. October shows a similar pattern,but with lower values. In November the activity dropsand is restricted to the sea and the coastline. The di-urnal cycle of lightning activity in Catalonia shows apattern clearly related to the solar heating cycle, withan increase around 12 UTC and a maximum at 15 UTCfollowed by a slow decrease. On the contrary, the diur-nal cycle of the Balearic Sea is more homogeneous, witha minimum of activity at midday and a maximum at theevening and �rst night hours.

Session 6: Water Cycle and climate change

P6.1: Climate and Climate Change Analysisin the Lower Neretva River Basin, Croatia

M. Gajic-Capka, K. Cindric, I. Güttler and C.Brankovic

Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia (DHMZ),Zagreb, Croatia

In the framework of EU project DRINK ADRIA (Pro-gramme IPA ADRIATIC CBC 2007-2013) climate andclimate change have been analysed to provide an in-put for further assessment of present and future riskson water resources availability with emphasis on drink-ing water supply. The Prud spring catchment area inthe lower Neretva River basin is selected as one pilotarea out of two at the Croatian Adriatic coast. Air tem-perature and precipitation are analysed as basic inputparameters used in hydrological calculations. Analy-ses of present climate (1961-1990) contain intra-annualvariability and extremes and their temporal variationsduring 1961-2012 period on seasonal and annual scalefor Opuzen climatological station within the catchment.An assessment of present and future climate (2021-2050)is based on numerical simulations of three regional cli-mate models (RCMs) which participated in the EN-SEMBLES EU FP6 project. Analysis of the model datais carried out for those model grid cells which were theclosest to the Opuzen location. The RCMs were forcedby the observed concentrations of the greenhouse gases(GHGs) from 1951 to 2000; from 2001 onwards by IPCCA1B scenario of the GHGs emissions. The initial andboundary data for each RCM were provided from dif-ferent global climate models (GCMs): the ECHAM5GCM data were used to force RegCM3, the Arpege



GCM for Aladin and the HadCM3Q GCM for Promes.For the present climate, models are compared with theDHMZ and EOBS observations. For the projected cli-mate changes of the RCMcorr data an increase in themean air temperature by mid 21 century is simulatedby all three RCMs (0.5◦C to nearly 3.5◦C) and in mostcases is statistically signi�cant. The amplitude of pro-jected precipitation change varies greatly throughoutthe year from one model to the other (between -60%and +60%), but even so it is almost insigni�cant.

P6.2: Assessment of climate change scenar-ios for Agro-Pontino plain through a Non-homogeneous Hidden Markov Model

1L. Marotta, 1V. Telesca, 2F. Cio� and 3U. Lall

1Scuola di Ingegneria, Università degli Studi della Basilicata,Potenza, Italia2Dip. Di Ingegneria Civile, Edile e Ambientale, Universitàdi Roma `La Sapienza', Roma, Italia3Dept. of Earth & Environmental Engineering, ColumbiaUniversity, New York, NY.

This study regards an analysis of the possible changesin Agro-Pontino rainfall under di�erent global warm-ing scenarios for the 21st century. The Agro-Pontinoplain (southern Lazio,Italy) is a reclamation region withthe typical hydro-geological features of Mediterraneancoastal environments. It is an important agricultural-industrial activities, densely populated, so that, climatechanges could adversely a�ect the socio-economic de-velopment of the area. Currently, due to the coarseresolution of Global-Circulation-Models (GCMs), localclimate variables simulations for limited size area arenot accurate. Nonetheless, GCMs simulations of large-scale upper-air �elds are generally considered reliable,therefore to bridge the gap between GCMs and local-scale processes di�erent downscaling techniques are car-ried out. Here, a Hidden-Markov-Model (HMM) and aNon-Homogeneous-Markov-Model (NHMM) are devel-oped using a 54-years record (1951-2004) of daily rain-fall amount at 9stations in Agro-Pontino-plain and re-analysis �elds of atmospheric variables. In HMM andNHMM runs, we directly consider the entire year, ratherthan an a priori demarcation of seasons. The idea is toidentify, directly using the HMM, the seasonal precipi-tation characteristics which may be related to the tem-poral sequence of `hidden states' of atmosphere, subse-quently modeled as dependent on appropriate �elds ofselected atmospheric variables. Daily rainfall variabilityis described in terms of occurrence of 5 `hidden weatherstates' identi�ed by the HMM and associated to vari-ables representing the main characteristics of large-scaleatmospheric circulation as obtained by re-analysis data,then, using NHMM, calibration and validation tests aremade to identify the optimal predictors - GeoPotentialHeight and Temperature at 1000 hPa, Meridional andZonal Wind at 850 hPa and Precipitable Water - toreproduce better the observed rainfall features on Agro-Pontino-plain. Then, the �tted NHMM is used for pre-

dicting future rainfall patterns (RCP8.5 scenario), usingGCM predictors and simulations (CMCC- CM/ 1951-2100).

P6.3: A preliminary Study of the InfraredSpectrum of 34SF6 (ν4 and ν2 + ν4 combi-nation band)

M. Meskine, O. Ouardi and A. Kaarour

Physicochemical research laboratory, University D. MoulayTahar, Saida, Algeria

The hexa�uoride sulphur is one of the known heaviestgases, its mass speci�c to 200C and under pressure 0.1Mpa (one atmosphere) is 139 kg/m3 that is to say �vetimes more than that of the air. Its molecular mass is146.06 gr; it is colourless, odourless non-toxic and in-�ammable. It unfortunately presents a great disadvan-tage, its strong absorption in the infrared and its stronglifespan in the atmosphere. In fact, this molecule wasclassi�ed among gases for strong purpose of greenhouseat the time of the conference on the climatic changeswhich was taken place in Kyoto, Japan in 1997. Forthat, we undertook a systematic study of the absorp-tion of monoisotopic 34SF6 (4.21% in the atmosphere),the prediction of these bands is based on the tensorialformalism and vibrational extrapolation methods devel-oped in Dijon.We used 10 parameters of the ground state, these pa-rameters are �xed during the analysis and we have de-termined 22 others parameters for the [[Image:]] bandat the six order of the rovibrational Hamiltonian andfor Jmax = 95, using 1497 observed data with an rootmean square equal to 0, 598.10−3 cm−1.We present a new contribution to this topic concerningν2 + ν4 combination band. The e�ective Hamiltonian ofthis band contains contribution from the ground statelevel GS, ν2 and ν4 witch are known from previous stud-ies. The analysis has been performed using nonlinearleast squares �t procedure included in the XTDS pro-gram to Jup=112.

P6.4: Climate Change E�ect on Snow-CoverDuration in Turkey

O. Karakus and E. Tan


Snow covered days depends upon the distance fromshore, continentality, and elevation of a location. Thesnow line, the point above which snow or ice covers theground all yearlong, increases from west to east and fromshore to inland in Turkey. Being located in the Mediter-ranean Basin, snow-cover accumulates in Turkey mostlydue to the cold polar air mass during winter. Accord-ing to State Meteorological Service of Turkey, based on226 weather stations, yearly the maximum snow-covered



days has started to reduce in 2009. The greatest max-imum snow covered days has been recorded as about225 days in 2000, whereas there were only 112 snow-covered days in 2013, which is the minimum numberhas ever been recorded since 1980. On the other hand,from mid 80's, climate change has seriously started tobe expressed, till today, each decade one can see howobvious the situation is. In every aspect of life on earth,a�ected from its consequences more and more every day.Increased greenhouse gas emissions, excessive usage offossil fuels and many other anthropogenic causes com-bined with the natural processes and they are resultedwith increased global mean temperatures about 1 ◦C inlast century. This 1 ◦C change may cause an increase inextreme weather events, both in large and small scalesaccording to the last IPCC report AR5 (2013). Oneof the biggest impacts of this phenomenon is observedon global ice and snow cover. Therefore our aim inthis study is to determine the possible change in snow-covered days for Turkey by using 4 di�erent RCP8.5climate model projections (CMIP5). We compared thereference period results of climate models with the ob-servations of Turkey to evaluate the biases of these mod-els. Then we evaluated the climate model projectionsto see the e�ects on snow cover pattern especially onthe Eastern part of Turkey by means of both seasonalchange and the snow line throughout the years.

P6.5: Variability in Moisture Flux Conver-gence Rates on Turkey

E. Tan


Precipitation amounts simulated by global climate mod-els may not be reliable, since the horizontal resolutionof these models might not �ne enough to capture micro-physical processes including local e�ects. On the otherhand, precipitable water, which is the depth of waterin a column of the atmosphere, can be a reliable pa-rameter as an output of those global climate models.Moreover, horizontal moisture �ux convergence (MFC),which is the columnar integration of the sum of advec-tion and convergence terms of speci�c humidity, may beapproximated to the precipitation rate depending on themagnitude of the moisture transport. Therefore, in thisstudy, MFC rates on Turkey were investigated and theirchange according to the climate change model scenarios(CMIP5) are determined. The correlations of MFC andprecipitation observations are also calculated. Moistureentrance zones are de�ned �rst and the bias on speci�chumidity of climate change models (CCM4, IPSL, andMPI) are determined by comparing NCAR/NCEP Re-analysis data. Probability density functions of MFCsfor each moisture entrance zones are constructed for theReference Periods and RCP8.5 Projection (2005-2100)scenario. The maximum MFC events were also modeledby using the high-resolution WRF model for the shortterm prediction purposes to emphasize the di�erences

between climate model precipitation rates and down-scaled precipitation rates of the WRF Model. Prelimi-nary results show that intensity of local extreme precip-itation events might need further investigation by run-ning high resolution NWP models whereas frequency ofthose events can be estimated by using only MFC valuescalculated from climate model scenario results.

P6.6: Mediterranean sea level variability de-rived by multiresolution wavelet analysis

S. Khelifa and A. Rami

Centre Of Space Techniques, Arzew, Algeria

Using multiresolution wavelet analysis, the spectral con-tent of monthly maps of sea level anomaly time series onthe Mediterranean Sea derived from satellite altimetryover the period 1993 to 2013 is investigated in order toassess its seasonal changes and its nonlinear trend. Themultiresolution decomposition has extracted useful theseasonal signals (annual and semi-annual) and nonlineartrend of the analysed time series by means of its signalsof "details" and "approximations", respectively. Detailsand approximations signals represent, respectively, thehigh-frequency and the low-frequency contained in theanalysed time series. The amplitude values for the an-nual signal are less than10 cm with an average of 6.74cm, while those for the semi-annual signal are mostlyless than 4 cm with an average of 1.79 cm. However, thesuccessive smoothing of the analysed time series throughthe signals of approximations has allowed to better iden-tify the rate and time spans of the increase and decreaseof the Mediterranean Sea. The �ltered trend has a slopeabout 2.30 mm/year compared to 2.46 mm/year of theoriginal time series estimated by linear least squares re-gression.



Contributions

Önol, B.-B6_13:50-14:05, 17

Ünal, Y. S.-P1.10, 35-P1.11, 35

Ðalto, M.-B5_10:30-10:45, 1

Albay Akcaalan, R.-B6_15:50-16:05, 19

Ata Tutkun, N.-P4.1, 21

Bellahcene Zekri, N.-P3.1, 29

Abdelkader, B.-B6_15:35-15:50, 19

Abderrazak, B.-P4.10, 24

Achite, M.-P1.4, 33

Ahrens, B.-B2_9:05-9:20, 7

Alarcón, M.-B1_10:05-10:20, 15-P1.8, 34-P1.9, 35

Albay, M.-B6_15:50-16:05, 19

ALEX 2014 Scienti�cTeam

-B4_16:25-16:40, 6Ali

-B6_14:05-14:20, 18Alonso, S.

-B1_9:50-10:05, 15Altube, P.

-B3_14:30-14:45, 12Altunç, M.

-P4.11, 25Amengual, A.

-P1.6, 34Arboleda, A.

-B3_14:15-14:30, 11Argem�, O.

-B3_14:30-14:45, 12Aslan, Z.

-P4.11, 25

Baba-Hamed, K.-B6_16:05-16:20, 19-P1.7, 34

Baghdadi, N.-P3.3, 30

Baji¢, A.-B4_15:40-15:55, 5-B5_10:30-10:45, 1-B5_10:45-11:00, 2

Bampzelis, D.-B2_11:15-11:30, 8

Baoti¢, M.-B5_10:30-10:45, 1

Barberá, M. J.-P3.4, 30-P3.6, 31

Bari, D. D.-P4.9, 24

Barroso, C.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11

Barutcu, B.-P5.2, 20

Bech, J.-B3_14:30-14:45, 12-B4_16:10-16:25, 6-P3.7, 32

Belen, I.-B0_9:50-10:10, 1

Beltran, R.-P2.4, 26

Belu, R.-B5_11:30-11:45, 3-P4.5, 22

Bilgen, S. I.-P1.10, 35-P1.11, 35

Birman, C.-B3_13:45-14:00, 11

Blasi, M. G.-B3_13:30-13:45, 10

Bottyan, Z.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7

Bouanani, A.-B6_16:05-16:20, 19-P1.7, 34

Bouanani, R.-B6_16:05-16:20, 19

Boudad, B.-B3_13:15-13:30, 10

Bozkurt, D.-B6_16:20-16:35, 19

Bozoki, Z.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7

Brahim, C.-B6_15:35-15:50, 19

Brankovic, C.-P6.1, 36

C. Periago, C.-P1.9, 35

Calbó, J.-P1.5, 33-P2.1, 25

Camacho-de-Coca, F.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11

Carrer, D.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11-B3_15:45-16:00, 12-P3.2, 30

Carrió, D. C.-B4_14:00-14:15, 5-P4.2, 21

Caselles, D.-P3.4, 30

Caselles, V.-B3_16:15-16:30, 13-P3.4, 30

Ceamanos, X.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11-B3_15:45-16:00, 12

Cherchali, S.-P3.3, 30

Cindric, K.-P6.1, 36

Cio�, F.-P6.2, 37

Codina, B.-B4_13:15-13:30, 3

Coll, C.-P3.4, 30

Conangla, L.-B2_9:20-9:35, 7

Corbari, C.-P3.5, 31

Corsmeier, U.-B4_14:00-14:15, 5

Cuxart, J.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7-B2_9:20-9:35, 7-P1.6, 34-P2.5, 27-P2.7, 27-P2.9, 28

DaCamara, C. C.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11

Davis, M.-B5_11:00-11:15, 2

Delitala, A. M. S.-P1.12, 36

Delle Monache, L.-B5_10:45-11:00, 2

Demirhan Bari, D.-B1_8:50-9:05, 13-B6_13:35-13:50, 17

Di Sarra, A.-B2_11:30-11:45, 9

Diéguez, J. J.-P2.11, 29

Diez, J.-P4.3, 21

Doña, C.-P3.4, 30

Doblas-Reyes, F.-B5_11:00-11:15, 2

Dorak, Z.-B6_15:50-16:05, 19

Drobinski, P.-B4_15:55-16:10, 6

Du�ourg, F.-B4_16:10-16:25, 6

Duman, G.-B2_9:35-9:50, 8

Erdemir, G.

-P4.11, 25Erturk, A.

-B6_15:50-16:05, 19Espino, M.

-P5.1, 20Estellés, V.

-B2_11:30-11:45, 9Ezber, Y.

-B5_11:15-11:30, 2

Fairhead, L.-B4_15:55-16:10, 6

Faure, J.-F.-P3.3, 30

Fernández, I.-B2_9:20-9:35, 7

Fita, L.-B2_12:00-12:15, 10-B4_15:55-16:10, 6

Flaounas, E.-B2_12:00-12:15, 10

Güttler, I.-P6.1, 36

Gómez-Amo, J. L.-B2_11:30-11:45, 9-P2.8, 28

Gabriel, A.-B1_8:50-9:05, 13

Gabriel, D.-B6_13:35-13:50, 17

Gajic-Capka, M.-P6.1, 36

Galanaki, E.-B3_16:00-16:15, 13

García-Haro, J.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11

García-Santos, V.-B3_16:15-16:30, 13-P3.4, 30

Garcia-Valero, J. A.-P4.7, 23

Gaygusuz, O.-B6_15:50-16:05, 19

Gellens-Meulenberghs, F.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11

Ghilain, N.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11

Giannaros, T. M.-P4.8, 23

Giannaros, Th.-B3_16:00-16:15, 13

Giorgio, G. A.-P2.3, 26

Giovannini, L.-B1_11:55-12:10, 16-P2.10, 28

Goettsche, F.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11

Goktepe, N.-P1.10, 35



-P4.4, 22-P5.2, 20

Gokturk, O. M.-B6_16:20-16:35, 19

Gomez-Navarro, J. J.-P4.7, 23

González, J.-A.-P1.5, 33-P2.1, 25

Gonzalez-Reviriego, N.-B5_11:00-11:15, 2

Gorgun, E.-B2_9:35-9:50, 8

Grifoll, M.-P5.1, 20

Grisogono, B.-B4_13:45-14:00, 4

Guijarro, J. A.-B1_9:35-9:50, 14-B1_9:50-10:05, 15-P2.5, 27

Gurevin, C.-B6_15:50-16:05, 19

Gyongyosi, A. Z.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7

Haddouche, D.-P3.1, 29

Homar, V.-B1_9:50-10:05, 15-B4_13:30-13:45, 4-B4_14:00-14:15, 5-P4.2, 21

Horvat, I.-B4_13:45-14:00, 4

Horvath, K.-B4_15:40-15:55, 5-B5_10:30-10:45, 1-B5_10:45-11:00, 2-B5_11:30-11:45, 3-P4.5, 22

Hourdin, F.-B4_15:55-16:10, 6

Hrastinski, M.-B4_15:40-15:55, 5-B5_10:30-10:45, 1-B5_10:45-11:00, 2

Incecik, S.-B0_9:25-9:45, 1-P1.11, 35-P4.9, 24-P5.2, 20

Istenes, Z.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7

Ivankovi¢, E.-B5_10:30-10:45, 1

Ivatek-�ahdan, S.-B4_15:40-15:55, 5-B5_10:30-10:45, 1

Izquierdo, R.-B1_10:05-10:20, 15

J. Belmonte, J.

-P1.9, 35Jansà, A.

-B1_9:50-10:05, 15Jerez, S.

-B1_11:40-11:55, 16Jericevic, A.

-B2_8:50-9:05, 7Jiménez, M. A.

-P2.4, 26-P2.5, 27

Jiménez, P. A.-P5.1, 20

Jiménez-Guerrero, P.-B1_11:40-11:55, 16-B2_11:45-12:00, 9

Jimenez-Guerrero, P.-P4.7, 23

Jordina, B.-B1_10:05-10:20, 15

Jozsa, J.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7

Kaarour, A.-P6.3, 37

Kamila, B.-H.-P4.10, 24

Karaca, M.-B0_10:10-10:30, 1

Karacostas, Th.-B2_11:15-11:30, 8-P4.6, 23

Karagiannidis, A.-B3_16:00-16:15, 13

Karakus, O.-P6.4, 37

Karbou, F.-B3_13:45-14:00, 11

Kartsios, S.-B2_11:15-11:30, 8

Kaytanci, T.-B5_11:15-11:30, 2

Kazadzis, S.-B3_16:00-16:15, 13

Khan-B6_14:05-14:20, 18

Khelifa, S.-P6.6, 38

Kirkil, G.-B5_11:15-11:30, 2

Kiss, M.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7

Koker, L.-B6_15:50-16:05, 19

Kora£in, D.-B5_11:30-11:45, 3-P4.5, 22

Kotroni, V.-B3_16:00-16:15, 13

Kutaladze, N.-B6_13:20-13:35, 17

Kvaki¢, M.-B4_13:45-14:00, 4

Lacaze, R.

-P3.2, 30Lagouvardos, K.

-B3_16:00-16:15, 13Laiti, L.

-B1_11:55-12:10, 16-P2.10, 28

Lall, U.-P6.2, 37

Le Moigne, P.-B4_16:25-16:40, 6

Leroy, M.-P3.3, 30

Liuzzi, G.-B3_13:30-13:45, 10

Lopez-Bustins, J. A.-P1.3, 33

Lorente, J.-B4_16:10-16:25, 6-P3.7, 32

Luterbacher, J.-P1.3, 33

Mahfouf, J.-F.-B3_13:45-14:00, 11

Mahmoudi, P.-B1_9:05-9:20, 14

Majeed-Husam, T.-B1_10:05-10:20, 15

Mancini, M.-P3.5, 31

Manssouri, I.-B3_13:15-13:30, 10

Mantilla, E.-P2.11, 29

Marín, M.J.-P2.8, 28

Marbà, N.-P2.4, 26

Marcos, C.-B2_11:30-11:45, 9

Marotta, L.-P2.6, 27-P6.2, 37

Martí, B.-P2.9, 28

Martínez, J.-P2.5, 27

Martínez-Lozano, J. A.-B2_11:30-11:45, 9-P2.8, 28

Martínez-Villagrasa, D.-P2.9, 28

Martin-Vide, J.-P1.3, 33

Masiello, G.-B3_13:30-13:45, 10

Mathbout, S.-P1.3, 33

Matjacic, B.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7-P2.7, 27

Matu²ko, J.-B5_10:30-10:45, 1

Maurel, P.-P3.3, 30

Mederbal, K.-P3.1, 29

Megrelidze, L.-B6_13:20-13:35, 17

Mejia, J.-B5_11:30-11:45, 3

Melas, D.-P4.8, 23

Mentes, S. S.-P1.10, 35-P5.2, 20

Meskine, M.-P6.3, 37

Millan, M. M.-B6_14:20-14:35, 18

Mohammed, A. J.-P1.8, 34

Montávez, J. P.-B1_11:40-11:55, 16-B2_11:45-12:00, 9-P4.7, 23

Montornès, A.-B4_13:15-13:30, 3

Nabat, P.-B3_15:45-16:00, 12

Navarro, J.-P5.1, 20

Niclòs, R.-P3.4, 30-P3.6, 31

Nuñez, M.-P2.8, 28

Obermann, A.-B2_9:05-9:20, 7

Odak, I.-B4_15:40-15:55, 5-B5_10:30-10:45, 1-B5_10:45-11:00, 2

Olesen, F.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11

Olmedo, A.-B1_11:40-11:55, 16

Onol, B.-P5.2, 20

Ossó, A.-P3.7, 32

Ouardi, O.-P6.3, 37

Ozel, G.-P4.1, 21

Ozen, C.-B1_8:50-9:05, 13

Ozturk, I.-B6_13:00-13:20, 17

Pérez, Ll.-B3_16:15-16:30, 13

Pérez, R.-P3.4, 30

Palau, J. L.



-B0_9:20-9:25, 1-B2_9:50-10:05, 8-B6_14:20-14:35, 18-P2.11, 29

Pallares, E.-P5.1, 20

Palomares, A. M.-P5.1, 20

Pastor, F.-P2.11, 29-P2.2, 26-P3.6, 31

Pedrós, R.-B2_11:30-11:45, 9

Peri¢, N.-B5_10:30-10:45, 1

Periago, C.-B1_10:05-10:20, 15

Pineda, N.-B3_14:30-14:45, 12-P1.13, 36

Pintó Biescas, A.-B5_11:00-11:15, 2

Policarpo, C.-B4_16:25-16:40, 6

Ponsetí, M.-B2_9:20-9:35, 7

Potes, M.-B4_16:25-16:40, 6

Priedite, I.-P5.3, 20

Proestakis, E.-B3_16:00-16:15, 13

Pytharoulis, I.-B2_11:15-11:30, 8-P4.6, 23

R. Izquierdo, R.-P1.9, 35

Ragosta, M.-P2.3, 26

Rahima, B.-P4.10, 24

Rami, A.-P6.6, 38

Ramis, C.-B1_9:50-10:05, 15-B4_13:30-13:45, 4

Ratola, N.-B1_11:40-11:55, 16-B2_11:45-12:00, 9

Redondo, J. M.-B3_14:00-14:15, 11-P4.3, 21

Rigo, T.-B3_14:30-14:45, 12

Romero, R.-B1_9:20-9:35, 14-B1_9:50-10:05, 15-B4_13:30-13:45, 4

Roujean, J.-L.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11

-B3_15:45-16:00, 12-P3.2, 30-P3.3, 30

Rovira, F.-B2_9:50-10:05, 8

S. Belbachir, S.-P1.7, 34

Sánchez, J. M.-P3.4, 30

Sahbi, H.-B3_13:15-13:30, 10

Sahin, A. D.-B0_9:45-9:50, 1

Salah Eddine, A. R.-B6_15:35-15:50, 19

Sales, M. J.-B6_14:20-14:35, 18

Salgado, R.-B4_16:25-16:40, 6

Sanchez, J.M.-B3_14:00-14:15, 11

Sanchez, M.A.-P4.3, 21

Sanchez-Lorenzo, A.-P1.5, 33-P2.1, 25

Sanchez-Romero, A.-P1.5, 33-P2.1, 25

Saouli, F.-P1.7, 34

Sari, D.-P4.9, 24

Sayinta, F. M.-P4.4, 22-P5.2, 20

Scavone, G.-P2.3, 26

Sen, O. L.-B1_11:25-11:40, 16-B6_16:20-16:35, 19

Sera�n, S.-B1_11:55-12:10, 16

Serio, C.-B3_13:30-13:45, 10

Serrano, D.-P2.8, 28

Sha�rey, L.-B1_9:20-9:35, 14

Shaghayegh, A.-P4.9, 24

Shvangiradze, M.-B6_13:20-13:35, 17

Simó, G.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7-P2.5, 27

Six, B.-B3_15:45-16:00, 12

Smets, B.-P3.2, 30

Smith, C.

-B5_11:30-11:45, 3-P4.5, 22

Sola, Y.-P3.7, 32

Soler, X.-P1.13, 36

Stane²i¢, A.-B5_10:30-10:45, 1

Stoll, M.-P3.3, 30

T. Majeed Husam, T.-P1.9, 35

Tan, E.-B2_9:35-9:50, 8-B5_11:45-12:00, 3-P1.10, 35-P2.6, 27-P4.4, 22-P4.9, 24-P5.2, 20-P6.4, 37-P6.5, 38

Tatrai, D.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7

Tegoulias, I.-B2_11:15-11:30, 8-P4.6, 23

Telesca, V.-B3_13:30-13:45, 10-P2.3, 26-P2.6, 27-P3.5, 31-P6.2, 37

Teli²man-Prtenjak, M.-B4_13:45-14:00, 4-P2.5, 27

Tellez, J.-B3_14:00-14:15, 11

Tokgozlu, A.-P4.11, 25

Tomaºi¢, I.-B4_13:45-14:00, 4

Torralba Fernandez, V.-B5_11:00-11:15, 2

Toubal, A. K.-P1.4, 33

Tous, M.-B1_9:20-9:35, 14

Trapero, L.-B4_16:10-16:25, 6

Traveset, A.-P2.4, 26

Trigo, I.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11

Tudor, M.-B5_10:30-10:45, 1

Turuncoglu, U.-B1_11:25-11:40, 16-B4_14:15-14:30, 5

Unal, E.

-P5.2, 20Unal, Y. S.

-P5.2, 20Utrillas, M.P.

-B2_11:30-11:45, 9-P2.8, 28

Va²ak, M.-B5_10:30-10:45, 1

Valiente, J. A.-P2.11, 29-P2.2, 26-P3.4, 30-P3.6, 31

Vallespir, J.-P1.6, 34

Valor, E.-P3.4, 30

Vellore, R.-B5_11:30-11:45, 3-P4.5, 22

Venafra, S.-B3_13:30-13:45, 10

Viher, M.-B4_13:45-14:00, 4

Vila, T.-B3_14:00-14:15, 11-P4.3, 21

Weidinger, T.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7

Wooster, M.-B3_14:15-14:30, 11

Wrenger, B.-B2_8:50-9:05, 7-P2.5, 27

Yürük, C.-P1.11, 35

Yagci, O.-B2_9:35-9:50, 8

Yilmaz, E.-P4.4, 22-P5.2, 20

Yilmaz, Y.-B1_11:25-11:40, 16

Yuce, N.-P1.1, 32

Yuruk, C.-P1.10, 35

Zack, J.-B4_13:15-13:30, 3

Zaninovic, K.-P1.2, 32

Zappa, G.-B1_9:20-9:35, 14

Zardi, D.-B1_11:55-12:10, 16-P2.10, 28

Ziomas, I.-P4.8, 23


5th international meeting on meteorology and climatology

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