A BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO SOCIAL SCIENCE: A course for physical scientists

John F. Weaver, CIRA/CSULindsey K. Fast, Western State Colorado UniversityDan Bikos, Olivia Vila, CIRA/CSUDan Lindsey, NOAA/NESDIS@CIRA

OVERVIEW

• Defining social science – What is it!?

-- How social scientists study people and

populations

• Comparing physical and social

science

-- Different focus variables

-- Different data collection methods

-- Different analysis techniques

-- Different sources of error

Defining Social Science

A branch of science that deals with:

1) understanding individual and societal behaviors2) interpersonal relationships of individuals as members of society

• Communication (conveying information)

• Psychology (both individual and group behavior)

• Anthropology (for us cultural differences)

• Sociology (institutional characteristics)

• Economics (infrastructure cost-to-benefit)

Communications- a biggie

• Does your target audience hear you?

Target audiences might include individuals, the general public, public officials, emergency responders, the media

• Do they understand you?

• Do you understand them?

• Do they care?

• Stationary: At work, at home, in a bar,

shopping

• In transit: In a car, a train, a bus, a

motorcycle

• Outdoors: Jogging, bicycling, shopping,

mowing

the lawn, picking up the kids, sports

Do they hear you?

• What is their knowledge-base?

• Is there a problem with terminology?

• Have you conveyed the threat?

• Do they know what you expect them to

do?

Do they understand you?

It’s a Two-way Street

• How do people think about your topic?

• Do you have preconceived ideas about their

motivations?

• Also, we must never assume that because we

have seen people react in the past, we

understand their motivation and know how they

will react in the future

Do you understand them?

Apathy, priorities & social factors

• Previous experience plays a role“It’s always hot in Phoenix” … “It always snows in Colorado” …

“Lightning has never scared me.”

• Life priorities play a role

“I’ve need to pick up the kids” … “I’ve got to get to my meeting”

• Social factors play a role Groupthink, bandwagon effect, illusion of control, over-

confidence, prefer the status quo

Do They Care?

COMPARING TWO SCIENCES

A look at the similarities and differences between atmospheric and social science

FOCUS VARIABLES

Atmospheric Science• Physical variables (temperature,

pressure, humidity, winds)

Social Science• Human variables (attitudes,

decision processes, trauma, anxiety)

Focus Variables - Social Science

• Individual behaviors and traits• Agreeability, resilience, intelligence, decisiveness, personality •There are many pre-established tests available for individual traits

• Individual within groups• How people act within various groups • Family, friends, co-workers, social groups, etc.• Cultural differences, socio-economic status, age, gender, etc.

• Group dynamics - institutional •Groups include organizations such as police officers, firefighters, schools teachers/officials), and even National Weather Service forecasters.

•Differing missions, expectations, procedures, and prejudices

Data Collection Methods

Atmospheric Science

Social Science

• Surveys, field observations, computer testing, some instrumentation

• Thermometers, hygrometers, RAOBS, anemometers, satellites, radar

Analysis Techniques

Atmospheric Science

• Most processes of interest defined by

the so-called governing equations.

• Analysis based on principals of

physics and can be expressed as

differential and integral equations,

vectors, etc.

Social Science

• Most processes of interest are

statistically distributed amongst

populations.

• Analysis depends on statistical

techniques for qualitative and

quantitative studies

Sources of Error

Atmospheric Science

• Many processes not fully understood

• Equations too complex to solve explicitly

• Initial observations may not be representative

• Dropping 2nd order terms might be a problem

• Parameterized processes (e.g., solar, clouds) are a function of individual choices

• Computer modeling problems (finite differencing techniques, assumptions)

Social Science

• Many processes not fully understood

• Human behavior too complex to define mathematically

• Difficult to obtain representative observations

• Confounding variables are a problem

• Biases (experimenter, selection, individual) can introduce unexpected error

• Statistical analysis and regression techniques are not exact and involve assumptions

Descriptive versus Experimental

• Designed to establish cause-effect between various behaviors• Works by creating manipulations within the study• Question variation in a survey, different conditions in natural settings

Descriptive studies

Experimental studies

• Interviews, questionnaires, natural observations• Provide simple answers and/or correlations between variables• Cannot establish cause-effect

Questions, Questions, Questions … how social scientists carry

out their work

Useful results depend on careful experimental

design• A Long list of potential biases can destroy results

• The proper formatting of questions is tricky

• Designs must always be done with analysis in mind

• Be mindful of your study’s limitations

Questions, Questions, Questions … how social scientists carry

out their work

Human biases can ruin an otherwise great

study• Sampling biases

• Self-reporting and volunteer biases

• Cultural biases

• Participant versus experimenter bias

• Extraneous variables

Formatting Questions – more complicated than you

think

• Use clear and unambiguous language

• Keep questions short and concise

• Don’t frame questions to get the answer you

want

Loaded questions –

“How often do you ignore those irritating weather

warnings?”

Leading questions –

“Should responsible people heed weather warnings?”

Formatting Questions – more to think about

• Vague questions -- Do you attend church regularly?

• Limited options – Is this product; excellent, very good, fair.

If you don’t want to hear the truth, why do the survey?

• Double barrel questions –

How satisfied are you with weather forecasts and severe weather warnings?

• The order you ask the questions can be important

Bethlehem & Jelke (2009), Applied Survey Methods, Wiley, p. 56

Questions, Questions, Questions … a glance at how social

scientists carry out their work

Make a statistical plan part of original design

• Type of study (correlation, comparing sample groups, etc.)?

• Questions that can be quantified and compared

(Yes/no, Likert scaling, equal number of multiple choices)

• Easily coded open-ended questions, if any

• Concise questions (more honest answers, less ambiguity)

• For psychological factors, need to use established measures

(e.g., resilience, anxiety, skepticism, etc.)

FINAL POINTS

• Many processes are not fully understood

• Study physical processes of nature

• Instruments measure physical properties

(e.g., temperature, electromagnetic

radiation, etc.)

• Data analyzed using physical equations

that are not exact, too complex to solve

explicitly

Physical Scientists Social Scientists

• Many processes are not fully understood

• Study the behavior of individuals & groups

• Surveys, observations, or experiments measure

individual and group responses

• Data analyzed using statistical equations that do

not yield exact answers

FINAL POINTS

• Error sources: observations not

representative

• Dropping 2nd order terms, a potential

problem

• Parameterized processes (e.g., solar,

clouds)

are a function of individual choices

• Computer modeling problems – simplifying

assumptions, finite differencing, etc.

Physical Scientists Social Scientists

• Error sources – samples often not representative

• Confounding variables are a problem

• Personal biases (experimenter, selection, individual)

are a function of individual choices

• Statistical analysis and regression techniques

involve assumptions, not designed to be exact

FINAL POINTS

• Both the physical and social sciences utilize the scientific method to collect data and test hypotheses.

• Both physical and social science depend on rigorous adherence to the scientific method

• Finally, we want to emphasize that social science can help physical scientists carry out the parts of their job dealing with individuals, groups, and members organizations

Much, Much More …

• If you should have further interest:

→ Read some social science literature

→ Take a course in social science research

methods

→ Watch for our course on designing a

survey

This course has been a very brief overview