al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2015 part 19-118-caliphate-vs-regular armies-19

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2015 Part 19-118-Caliphate-vs-Regular Armies-19

A misunderstanding of the insurgency is at the heart of the difficulties facing the International Coalition in Afghanistan. The Taliban are often described as an umbrella movement comprising loosely connected groups that are essentially local and unorganized. On the contrary, this report’s analysis of the structure and strategy of the insurgency reveals a resilient adversary, engaged in strategic planning and coordinated action. -- The Taliban’s Winning Strategy in Afghanistan. 2009, Gilles Dorronsoro, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

It might not come as a total surprise to most Americans to find out that al Qaeda is still operating in Afghanistan, 14 years after the invasion of the country. Al Qaeda is a notoriously difficult group to eradicate completely because of the diffuse nature of its cell-based structure. “The goal of the operation was to degrade the terrorist network in Afghanistan,” Shoffner said, according to multiple media reports.

President Barack Obama has confirmed plans to extend the US military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2016, in a shift in policy. Announcing the plan on Thursday, President Obama said the troop extension could "make a real difference" for Afghanistan and Afghan security forces, which he acknowledged were "not as strong" as they needed to be. While international attention has focused on Russian military operations in Ukraine and Syria, Moscow has also been involved in a flurry of diplomatic and security initiatives to address the growing instability in northern Afghanistan.

Oct 15, Speaking at the White House, he said the US would keep 5,500 troops in the country when he leaves office in 2017. Originally all but a small embassy-based force was due to leave by the end of next year. But the US military says more troops will be needed to help Afghan forces counter a growing Taliban threat.

“What it is essentially saying is that the Americans and NATO will continue to bankroll the salaries of the Afghan army,” said Ahmed Rashid, a Pakistani author and Afghanistan expert.“Obama’s statement wasn’t tough enough on the corrupt leadership, which has squandered the opportunities given to it and robbed the country… We’ve seen a year of hopeless governance and there is mounting pressure for a fresh government.”

The United States’ decision to extend its military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2016 has thrown the war-ravaged country’s government a much needed lifeline even as its dysfunctionality, blamed for the Taliban’s revival, shows no signs of abating.

The insurgents’ seizure of the northern regional capital Kunduz last month, though brief, was a stinging blow to Western-trained Afghan forces as they struggle to maintain security after the end of NATO’s mission in December.

The Taliban now controls 35 of Afghanistan’s 398 districts and contests another 35, according to information compiled by The Long War Journal. The data was used by The New York Times to create a map that depicts the Taliban’s reach in Afghanistan. They – IEA -stated just a few days ago: Maintaining America troops in Afghanistan can in no way slow down the rapid process of our Jihad and struggle. We call upon our Mujahideen to intensify their attacks against American targets and to revise, escalate and quicken their plans against their movements, bases and affiliated organs.

Major General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – Qods Force, has been seen addressing Iranian military officers and members of Lebanese Hezbollah in western Syria.

Iran is reported to have deployed significant forces, estimated at thousands of troops, to support the Assad regime’s offensive to retake areas controlled by Jaysh al Fateh in Hama

1The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. –Winston ChurchillCees de Waart: CdW Intelligence to Rent of 8

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and Aleppo. But Omran al Zoubi, Syria’s Information Minister, has denied a large Iranian presence in Syria.

Saudi-led air force bombing has “mistakenly” led to the deaths of at least 30 Yemeni pro-government fighters loyal to ousted president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, local officials said, adding that the coalition reportedly “hit the wrong target.”

A Saudi-led air offensive in Yemen which started at the end of March continues to destroy targets on the ground. At least 2,355 civilians have been killed the last six months since the coalition began its military operations in Yemen, the UN said in September.

Thought al Qaeda Was Finished in Afghanistan? Think Again

By Rob Garver October 14, 2015It might not come as a total surprise to most Americans to find out that al Qaeda is still operating in Afghanistan, 14 years after the invasion of the country. Al Qaeda is a notoriously difficult group to eradicate completely because of the diffuse nature of its cell-based structure.However, it would probably come as a shock to most that, as the Long War Journal reports, the U.S. military last week launched what Army spokesman Brigadier General Wilson Shoffner called “one of the largest joint ground-assault operations we have ever conducted in Afghanistan” to take out a pair of training camps operating in southern Afghanistan. The measures, which involved 63 U.S. airstrikes and more than 200 U.S. and Afghan ground troops, focused on one camp that occupied approximately one square mile in Kandahar province and a second that occupied a remarkable 30 square miles in the same area.“The goal of the operation was to degrade the terrorist network in Afghanistan,” Shoffner said, according to multiple media reports. “Aside from validating the accuracy of our intelligence, we were able to seize a large amount of data and weapons. Based on the digital media equipment collected from the site, it also appears that this was the location of a large media cell.”Reports in Afghan media reported a hundred or more Al Qaeda militants killed and various supplies captured, including “heavy weapons, IED-making material and other valuable intelligence data including foreign passports, laptops and associated IT media, digital cameras and cards, documents, and mobile phones … anti-aircraft weapons; rocket-propelled grenade systems with associated hardware and warheads; machine guns, pistols, rifles and ammunition.”“The enormous success of this operation validates our ongoing campaign. Working with, by, and through our Afghan partners, we’re building their capabilities while we fight our common enemies,” said Gen. John F. Campbell, Commander for U.S. Forces in Afghanistan.Related: Obama Rewrites His Syria Plan, but Is It a Strategy? As the Long War Journal’s Bill Roggio and Thomas Joscelyn point out, the existence of two major al Qaeda training camps in a country the U.S. has spent so much blood and treasure to secure raises serious questions and suggests that “al Qaeda’s presence in Afghanistan is far more significant than U.S. officials have claimed in the past.”And the need to mount such a major operation suggests that President Obama’s persistent claims that the war in that troubled country is over may be more wishful thinking that real analysis, and that his promise to withdraw all but a handful of U.S. troops before his term is over may be hollow.In fact, just days before touting the success of the recent mission, Gen. Campbell appeared before the Senate Armed Services Committee and said that, in his view, a large contingent of U.S. troops will be necessary well past January 2017.Those troops would need to deal not just with al Qaeda but with a resurgent Taliban, which last month


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was able to briefly take over the city of Kunduz.Related: How the U.S. Wasted Billions of Dollars Rebuilding AfghanistanAccording to a New York Times report this morning, it is becoming increasingly clear to the White House that a clean break with Afghanistan is probably not achievable without risking that the country will revert to the terrorist playground that it was in the years prior to the 9/11 attack. Assuming it hasn’t already.

Statement of Islamic Emirate regarding prolonging stay of American invaders in Afghanistan

The Islamic Emirate has reiterated time and again that the American forces have no plans of ending the occupation of Afghanistan and all their apparent announcements concerning it are ploys to fool our nation and the American people. Now they have followed it practically by openly declaring that 5500 troops will remain in Afghanistan till the end of 2017.The Islamic Emirate announces the following in regards to the illogical decision by America:1. Maintaining America troops in Afghanistan can in no way slow down the rapid process of our Jihad and struggle. The insistence upon policy of war by American officials will only further aggravate the sensitivities of our nation and the region. When attacks begin to intensify against the American invaders, their casualties begin rising and the cost of this futile and unwinnable war in Afghanistan increases, she will willfully begin changing her tyrannical roadmap.2. If the invaders lost the war in Afghanistan with the presence of hundreds of thousands of troops, their hopes of reversing the tide with five thousand troops are also misguided. Insisting upon war and occupation will further reduce the support America enjoys around the world and with the American people themselves. America will get entangled in the war inside Afghanistan all by herself such that her fate shall be similar to that of the former Soviet Union.3. If Obama has taken this paradoxical decision due to the calls by despondent and distressed Kabul officials or due to some other necessity then know that this can never be in the best interest of either America or Afghanistan and shall mostly be harmful for American interests and prestige.4. We call upon our Mujahideen to intensify their attacks against American targets and to revise, escalate and quicken their plans against their movements, bases and affiliated organs.Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan 16/10/2015 Gregorian

Statement by Political Office of Islamic Emirate regarding latest conquests in the country’s northOn 6th of Tala 1394 Hijri Solar, the strategic city of Kunduz and most of its surrounding districts were liberated from occupation and fell under the control of Islamic Emirate. This in reality shows the deep love and sympathy of the Afghan Mujahid nation with freedom, independence and the Islamic Emirate and their absolute hatred and revulsion of occupation and invaders.This as the powerless Kabul administration has been erected in opposition to the will of the people, standing alongside the invaders. It daily transgresses against the life, wealth and honor of the people and instead of thinking about the higher interests of the people and the country, they work tirelessly for their own personal, partisan and group interests.Now that it has lost all power to combat the will of the people, it is trying to conceal its defeat and humiliation at the hands of Mujahideen with baseless propaganda, portraying an image that the Mujahideen are trying to harm and cross over into neighboring countries.The Political Office of Islamic Emirate assures all its neighboring countries that it has no intention of harming any of its neighbors. The Islamic Emirate wants good fruitful relations with all its neighboring countries based upon healthy neighborly spirit in light of humanitarian values and Islamic principles. All propaganda spread against the Islamic Emirate in this regard is totally baseless. Political Office of Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan12/10/2015 Gregorian


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Qods Force commander Qassem Soleimani rallies Iranian officers, Hezbollah in SyriaBY BILL ROGGIO | October 14, 2015 | [email protected] |

Major General Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps – Qods Force, has been seen addressing Iranian military officers and members of Lebanese Hezbollah in western Syria. In the past, the leader of Iran’s expeditionary special operations forces has been spotted on key battlefields in Iraq and Syria prior to the launch of major operations against jihadist groups such as the Islamic State.Recent images of Soleimani (above) appeared on social media sites such as Twitter. His presence in the western province of Latakia in Syria was confirmed by Reuters. According to the news service, Soleimani was “addressing Iranian officers and Hezbollah fighters with a microphone, wearing dark clothes as he spoke to the men in camouflage.” In the photographs, Soleimani is flanked by by a handful of men wearing military fatigues. The faces of the individuals standing next to him are digitally altered to prevent their identity from being disclosed. A crowd of armed fighters who appear to be wearing US Marine Corps desert camouflage uniforms listens to his speech.Latakia is a western coastal province that has long been a stronghold for the Assad family. Jihadists from the Jaysh al Fateh alliance, which is led by Al Nusrah Front, al Qaeda’s official branch in Syria, and its close ally, Ahrar al Sham, have launched attacks in the province in an effort to break Assad’s power base. Just two days ago, Abu Muhammad al Julani, Al Nusrah’s emir, threatened to indiscriminately shell villages in the province to avenge regime attacks, including airstrikes and barrel bombs dropped from helicopters, on Sunni villages, towns, and cities controlled by jihadist groups and allied rebel forces.Iran is reported to have deployed significant forces, estimated at thousands of troops, to support the Assad regime’s offensive to retake areas controlled by Jaysh al Fateh in Hama and Aleppo. But Omran al Zoubi, Syria’s Information Minister, has denied a large Iranian presence in Syria.“Only some Iranian military advisers, whose mission is to provide consultations and nothing more, are present in Syria,” Zoubi said, according to Iran’s Tasnim News Agency.Soleimani is instrumental in organizing Syrian and Iraqi militias, as well as Hezbollah, to battle Sunni jihadists and allied rebels in Syria. He has played a similar role in Iraq, where he has organized, trained, and equipped Shiite militias along the lines of Lebanese Hezbollah to fight the Islamic State. The leaders of some of these militias are listed by the US as Specially Designated Global Terrorists, and remain hostile to the US. Soleimani is occasionally photographed with these militia leaders.Hezbollah has also committed a large force to back the government’s offensive in Hama and Idlib in western Syria. Thousands of the group’s fighters are said to be involved in the operation. In the past week, a senior Hezbollah leader known as Hassan al Haj was killed during the offensive. A senior Lebanese government official told Reuters that Haj was “the most important [Hezbollah] figure killed in battles in Syria since the start of the war.”Russia has also committed an expeditionary military force to back the Assad regime’s offensive. After building up its forces in Syria, the Russian military launched airstrikes on Sept. 30 and have primarily


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targeted Jaysh al Fateh and allied rebel groups in the northwest. Russia entered the fight under the guise of attacking the Islamic State, but few of its airstrikes have hit the jihadist group. In addition to warplanes and attack helicopters, the Russian military has deployed “marines, paratroopers, and special forces” to Syria, and even executed a sea-launched cruise missile strike from the Caspian Sea.Russia very likely coordinated its entry into the Syrian civil war with Iran and Soleimani. In July, Soleimani is reported to have visited Russia and met with met President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, despite a United Nations travel ban.Bill Roggio is a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and the Editor of The Long War Journal.

Taliban controls or contests 70 districts in AfghanistanBY THE LWJ EDITORS | October 16th, 2015 |

The Taliban now controls 35 of Afghanistan’s 398 districts and contests another 35, according to information compiled by The Long War Journal. The data was used by The New York Times to create a map that depicts the Taliban’s reach in Afghanistan. The map is reproduced above. The Long War Journal‘s original map, as well as our methodology for labeling a district controlled or contested, can be viewed here.We believe that the Taliban either controls or contests far more districts than are listed in the maps. From The New York Times report accompanying the map:The Taliban have a significant footprint in Afghanistan, according to Bill Roggio, the editor of The Long War Journal, an online publication that is tracking Taliban control. Mr. Roggio has confirmed that about one-fifth of the country is controlled or contested by the Taliban, but based on his understanding of how the Taliban operate, he said, “they probably either control or heavily influence


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about a half of the country.”Our data understates the Taliban’s influence in areas of Afghanistan, particularly in the east and south, as we are using open source reports to determine a district’s status. [See LWJ report, Taliban controls or contests scores of districts in Afghanistan, for more details.]As the Taliban regains areas lost during the US-led surge from 2009-2012, the US is planning to further reduce its presence, just not as quickly as previously anticipated. The US currently has less than 10,000 troops in the country, after already abandoning a counterinsurgency strategy that required far more soldiers. President Obama planned to withdraw all US troops, with the exception of a force to protect the Kabul embassy, by 2017. Yesterday, with the situation in Afghanistan deteriorating, Obama reversed course and said that 5,500 troops would remain in country at the end of his term in office. Those troops would be based in four locations: Kabul, Bagram, Nangarhar, and Kandahar.We argue that this force is insufficient to halt the Taliban’s advance. The Taliban seized the provincial capital of Kunduz for two weeks and dozens of districts this year, despite the presence of 9,800 US troops in country. The Taliban also makes the case that a force of 5,500 soldiers is not enough.“If the invaders lost the war in Afghanistan with the presence of hundreds of thousands of troops, their hopes of reversing the tide with five thousand troops are also misguided,” the Taliban said in an official statement that was released on Voice of Jihad.We are loath to admit that the Taliban has a point.

Oct 7, Russia says it has launched rocket strikes on Islamic State group targets in Syria from warships in the Caspian Sea - about 1,500km (930 miles) away.Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said four warships fired 26 sea-based cruise missiles on 11 targets, destroying them and causing no civilian casualties.Meanwhile, Syrian ground troops have launched an offensive under Russian air cover, Syrian officials say. Russia denies claims that its week of strikes have mainly hit non-IS targets. US Defence Secretary Ash Carter said that coalition forces fighting IS in Syria would not co-operate with Russia. "We believe Russia has the wrong strategy," he said. "They continue to hit targets that are not IS. We believe this is a fundamental mistake."Aug 2015, Retired Army Lt. Gen Michael Flynn, the former director of the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency is accusing the Obama regime of lying about the rise of ISIS and the assertion that they were somehow caught off guard. He says that far from being surprised by ISIS, the Obama regime allowed them to form in a deliberate act intended to unite Sunni Muslims against the Bashar al-Assad government in Syria.May 2015, (CNN)Flynn; Be afraid -- be very afraid. This is the warning the world deserves to hear. Because the leader of the free world refuses to look with clear eyes at the chief security challenges of the 21st century: the fruits of radical Islam. And, although ISIS is trying to "out al Qaeda" al Qaeda, resorting to attention winning stunts to boost its profile on television sets around the world, al Qaeda itself is no less of a threat to the United States and our allies today than it was in January 2014. At the same time, the routine failures of President Obama and his advisers to understand the security environment, and to appropriately tailor America's national security posture in a manner demanded by it, foretells more disasters lie ahead Feb 15, The U.S. "failed to understand the threats that we face" from Islamic extremism, retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, the former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency said during a U.S. House Armed Services Committee hearing today."That failure is leading to a mismatch in strategy and resources that we are applying to these threats," Flynn told lawmakers on the committee. "We have to not just throw military resources at this thing, we have to be far more sophisticated."

Islamic State, al Qaeda gains in Afghanistan test security forceTerror groups broadening foothold Both al Qaeda and an emerging Islamic State are making gains simultaneously in Afghanistan, providing the biggest test to date for an Afghan National Security Force handed the operational lead by the U.S.


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The Institute for the Study of War in Washington reported on Tuesday that Taliban militants now control Kunduz province. They are members of the Islamic Jihad Union, which supports Taliban leader Mullah Mansour and al Qaeda. “The fall of Kunduz to Taliban militants is a significant blow to the ability of ANSF forces to retain control throughout the country,” ISW said. “It is the first provincial capital to be seized by Taliban forces for any length of time, and the withdrawal of the ANSF from the city portends difficulty in retaking the city.” Meanwhile, Wilayat Khorasan, the Islamic State affiliate, showed on Sunday that it now has the men and weapons to mount a coordinated attack on Afghan forces in Nangarhar province.The Islamic State, known also as ISIL and ISIS, is also showing that its headquarters in Syria can muster a new army miles away. The Islamic State can now both threaten the U.S.-backed government and fight the Taliban for ultimate control of Afghanistan.“ISIS will likely continue to conduct attacks to reestablish its claim in Nangarhar in order to exploit Taliban weaknesses,” the ISW said. “ISIS also has greater reason to demonstrate its strength outside of Iraq and Syria because of the threat of Russian mobilization in Syria.”At the Pentagon, Press Secretary Peter Cook voiced confidence in the Afghan forces and acknowledged there are some Americans in Kanduz on training missions.“Obviously this is a setback for the Afghan security forces. But we’ve seen them respond in recent weeks and months to the challenges they faced, and they are doing the same thing in Kanduz right now,” Mr. Cook said. “Again, we have confidence in their ability to take on the Taliban in Kanduz. This was clearly a setback. I’m not sure it reflects any new assessment of the Taliban at this point.”The fall of the city of 300,000 inhabitants — the first urban area taken by the Taliban since the U.S. invasion ousted their regime 14 years ago — is a major setback to President Ashraf Ghani, who has staked his presidency on bringing peace to Afghanistan and seeking to draw the Taliban to peace talks. The fierce, multipronged assault took the Afghan military and intelligence agencies off guard after what had appeared to be a stalemate throughout the summer between Taliban forces besieging the city and government troops defending it.“None of the security forces or officials had any information about the attack; if they had, they would have warned the NGOs, the U.N. and the banks, but they didn’t,” said one Kunduz resident, a banker who escaped the city late Monday and spoke to The Associated Press in Kabul.

17 Oct, Saudi-led air force bombing has “mistakenly” led to the deaths of at least 30 Yemeni pro-government fighters loyal to ousted president Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi, local officials said, adding that the coalition reportedly “hit the wrong target.” The strike on the military camp in Yemen’s Waziya, located between the southeastern provinces of Taiz and Lahj, left at least another 40 wounded. One official from the Hadi administration told Reuters that "the coalition raid hit the wrong target.” A Saudi-led air offensive in Yemen which started at the end of March continues to destroy targets on the ground. At least 2,355 civilians have been killed the last six months since the coalition began its military operations in Yemen, the UN said in September.

ISIL blamed for deadly attack on Iraqi forces. Members of Shia unit among 14 dead in suicide attack on army regiment in eastern Fallujah in setback to government.27 Sep 2015 Fighters of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) have mounted a suicide attack on an Iraqi army regiment in eastern Fallujah, claiming at least 14 lives. Military sources told Al Jazeera the attack on Sunday targeted a base in the village of al-Harariyat. The fatalities reportedly included fighters of the Shia unit, Popular Mobilisation Forces, which is helping the government battle ISIL. Iraq is going through its worst security crisis since the 2011 withdrawal of US troops.

27 Sep, DUBAI - A Saudi brigadier general has died in hospital of wounds incurred on the border with Yemen, the armed forces said. Ibrahim Omar Ibrahim Hamzi, deputy commander of the 8th brigade in Saudi Arabia's southern Jizan province, was injured "defending the nation and its citizens,"


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the statement said, without providing any details. His death follows the killing of two border officers along the frontier on Saturday, as clashes with Iran-allied Houthis in Yemen escalated.


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al-qaida chief ayman al-zawahiri the coordinator 2015 part 19-118-caliphate-vs-regular armies-19

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