camco crif presentation public sector 12 oct 2011

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Duncan Price, Director

Presentation to Senior Public Sector Event 12/10/11

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives

1

What is Cambridgeshire's potential?

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Cambridgeshire is progressing well

2

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Modelling renewable energy deployment potential

3

Inputs Scenario 1 (low)

Scenario 2 (medium)

Scenario 3 (high)

Scenario 4 (high without wind)

Discount rate 9% 7% 6% 6%

Energy price [1]

DECC - 'low' energy prices

DECC - 'high' energy prices

DECC - 'high high' energy prices

DECC - 'high high' energy prices

Financial incentives (FIT/RHI)

lower than current tariff rates current rates

current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)

current rates (FIT/ RHI designed to give fixed return & will adjust to energy prices)

Project deployment rate (wind/biomass/EfW) 8% 15% 30%

30% (0% for wind)

Green policy support (for building integrated technologies) Low Medium High High

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Deployment options for renewable energy

4

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Renewable electricity potential is very large

5

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Renewable heat constitutes the greater challenge

6

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

S. Cambs and Hunts have largest resource

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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

District heating potential lies in Cambridge and Huntingdon

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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Substantial infrastructure is needed

Number of installations associated with delivery of each scenario

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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Significant investment opportunity

Investment potential for each scenario in £millions

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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Energy efficiency and renewable energy can close the carbon ‘gap’

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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 12

Conclusions

• Cambridgeshire is doing well – especially renewable electricity

• There is potential for more – solar, biomass, heat pumps, wind

• All technologies are needed – heat and electricity

• Somewhere between medium & high scenarios delivers by 2031

• Also closes carbon gap to meet pro-rata 4th carbon budget

• Significant investment potential – up to £6.1 billion for high scenario

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 13

Thanks

Duncan Price

DirectorCamco

t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com

172 Tottenham Court Road LondonW1T 7NS United Kingdom

www.camcoglobal.com

Renewable energy delivery pathways

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There are three delivery pathways

Community Public Sector Commercial

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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 15

What is the potential for each pathway?

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0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Public sector Community Commercial

Dep

loym

ent po

tential (GWh)

Deployment potential by pathway

Wind >=6 turbines

Wind <=5 turbines

Biomass

ASHP

GSHP

SWH

PV

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Community deployment potential

• PV• 145MWp, 1,150,000m² of panels

• 460 non-residential buildings and 30,400 houses (14%)

• £640m capex, £150m NPV

• Solar water heating• 42,600m² of panels on 8,500 houses (4%)

• £50m capex, £20m NPV

• Heat pumps• 43,000 or 15% of houses

• £140m capex, £75m NPV

• Wind• 75MW or 30 turbines

• £120m capex, £8m NPV16

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 17

Vision for community delivery pathway

• Communities have strong incentive to invest in renewable energy• Effective hard and soft incentive mechanisms

• Minimisation of risks and barriers to implementation

• Communities have access to a range of funding sources• Availability of applicable finance options for a range of project types

• Gaining access to existing and new funding sources

• Communities are maximising learning from leading practice• Demonstration case studies of successful community energy schemes

• Access to quality impartial ‘self-help’ guidance and information

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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Vision for community delivery pathway

• Communities are managing energy projects effectively• Identification of governance methods and relative benefits of each approach

• Range of delivery options identified

• Investment and delivery opportunities are clearly communicated

1818

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Public sector deployment potential

• PV• 39MWp, 300,00m² of panels

• 180 non-residential buildings and 7,500 houses (18%)

• £170m capex, £40m NPV

• Solar water heating• 8,400m² of panels on 1,700 houses (4%)

• £10m capex, £4m NPV

• Heat pumps• 8,100 or 20% of houses

• £40m capex, £23m NPV

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• Wind• 27MW or 11 turbines

• £44m capex, £3m NPV

• Biomass• 14 installations of 1.5MW

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Vision for public sector pathway

• Public sector is maximising value of its own hard assets• PV on roofs of offices, schools, hospitals, leisure centres

• PV in social housing – own stock, ALMO and with housing association partners

• Appropriate wind development on public land

• Provision of anchor loads for district heating and CHP

• Renewable energy transition plan for each building

• Demonstration projects for advanced technologies and new approaches

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 21

Vision for public sector pathway

• Public sector is maximising value from its soft assets• Planning policies – LDF, LDO, s106, CIL

• Enabling mechanisms – community energy fund, grant funding

• Public sector led development – de-risking projects, early project promotion

• Political engagement – FIT, RHI and Green Deal policy certainty, tariffs, etc.

• Market development – awareness raising, pipeline development for Green Deal

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 22

Vision for public sector pathway

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 23

Commercial deployment potential

• PV• 160MWp, 1,300,000m² of panels

• 3,200 non-residential buildings

• £720m capex, £165m NPV

• Solar water heating• 8,300m² of panels on 1,700 or 20% of

buildings

• £9m capex, £4m NPV

• Heat pumps• 200 or 3% of buildings

• £75m capex, £43m NPV

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• Wind• For wind parks ≤5 turbines, 28MW or

11 turbines

• For wind parks ≥6 turbines, 375MW or 150 turbines

• Total capex £660m, £45m NPV

• Biomass• 14 installations of 1.5MW

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 24

Vision for commercial delivery pathway

• Investment opportunities are clearly identified• Technical, economic and deployment potential based on WP1

• Benefits of growth agenda are articulated

• Preconditions are clearly understood by public and private sector + community

• Public sector is facilitating investment• Establishing clear public policies and protocols to provide market certainty

• Engaging in constructive dialogue with community

• Using its own assets to lever wider opportunities

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Vision for commercial delivery pathway

• Investment is flowing, projects being developed• Cambridgeshire seen as county with good renewable energy development

potential

• Cambridgeshire demonstrated to be investor-friendly

• Supply chain is in place, levels of risk and return meet minimum commercial requirements

• Constructive dialogue, community benefiting and accepting

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Vision for commercial delivery pathway

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PV deployment potential

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Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 28

Wind deployment potential

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What will the pathways look like or include?

• Compelling vision of what can be achieved

• Shared understanding of barriers and risks to implementation

• Cambridgeshire benefiting from up to £6.5bn of investment

• Local businesses are providing goods and services to the sector

• Leading county where people choose to invest

• Consistent and pro-active policy framework is adopted

• The public sector takes the lead

• Project plan for shared decision making

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework

Cambridgeshire’s challenging carbon objectives

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Discussion Points

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What will the public sector pathways look like?

• How can the public sector facilitate and support the delivery of more renewable energy delivery in Cambridgeshire?

• What is the role of the Public Sector?

• How can the public sector create the conditions to attract business and community buy-in and investment in Cambridgeshire?

Cambridgeshire Renewables Infrastructure Framework 32

Thanks

Duncan Price

DirectorCamco

t: +44 (0)20 7121 6150 m: +44 (0)7769 692 610e: duncan.price@camcoglobal.com

172 Tottenham Court Road LondonW1T 7NS United Kingdom

www.camcoglobal.com