que sera sera sdec15
Post on 21-Mar-2017
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Ready Doing Done
Seeingproblems
Embracingvariation
Actionablemeasures
Scalingproblems
Ready Doing Done
Embracingvariation
Actionablemeasures
Scalingproblems
Seeingproblems
Directionvs.
Destination
Are we there yet?
Typical Product Roadmaps show a single route
More useful Roadmaps show options
Bungay – “Directed Opportunism”
Knowing our goal,
capabilities and constraints
we’re free to pursue options
that emerge in context
Annual by Product Management
Bi-annual by Product Management
Quarterly by Product Owner
(Bi-)monthly by Team
Daily by Team
The Planning “Onion”
The Planning “Telescope”
The Planning “Weakness”
Late learning
knowledge
We ask the wrong questions
• When will this be done?
• Can we offer enough on a given date?
• How much will this cost?
• How much will we invest to learn?
• Can we build this?
We ask the wrong questions
• When will this be done?
• Can we offer enough on a given date?
• How much will this cost?
• How much will we invest to learn?
• Can we build this?
• Can we provide value?
Decomposing work
Story
Epic
Project
Story-maps
Delivery patterns
60% of project
What we plan for
The S-curvefeatures
time
Delivery patterns
The S-curve
60% of project
What we plan for
What we should plan for
features
time
Ready Doing Done
Actionablemeasures
Scalingproblems
Seeingproblems
Embracingvariation
Our unfortunate reality:
We live in a non-linear,
probabilistic world, yet…
continue to make projections using
deterministic, single-point
predictions guesses.
Point vs. range forecasts
• How long did it take you to get to work
today?
• Yesterday?
• Last week on this day?
• Tomorrow?
• Would you budget the average travel time
if you absolutely had to be present?
Variation
Variation
“Normal”
distribution
Thanks Alexei Zheglov! @az1
But we’re not normal!
Without
deviations
from the norm
progress isn’t
possible.
Frank Zappa
Ready Doing Done
Scalingproblems
Seeingproblems
Embracingvariation
Actionablemeasures
“People who don't know how to measure what they want, settle for wanting what they can measure.”
Russel Ackoff
Roy Rappaport, Netflix
Understanding team capacity
• What data will help us make decisions?
~~~~~~
• How much can we do?
• How long does it take?
• Does it work?
• Is this pace sustainable?
• On what basis can we improve?
Actionable Metric #1: Throughput
Actionable Metric #2: Cycle Time
Actionable Metric #3: Escaped Defects
Actionable Metric #4: Team health
Ready Doing Done
Seeingproblems
Embracingvariation
Actionablemeasures
Scalingproblems
Scaling up - Random Branch Sampling
Story
Epic
Project
RBS Algorithm:
1.Randomly select one of the epics
2.Count the number of stories in the sampled
epic
3.Use formula (1) to calculate one estimate of the
total number of stories in the project
4.Repeat steps 2-4 between 7 and 11 times
5.Use formula (2) to calculate the total number of
stories for the project
6.Divide by the team’s throughput
Ready Doing Done
Seeingproblems
Embracingvariation
Actionablemeasures
Scalingproblems
Take-away ideas
• Have a clear directional goal
• Decompose your work (as you understand
it) and make it visible!
• Count completed stories
• Record variation of story time-in-process
• Adjust for escaped defect experience
• Use evidence to forecast a probable future
References• David Nicolette, 2015, Software Development Metrics, Manning
• Daniel S. Vacanti, 2015, Actionable Agile Metrics for Predictability:
An Introduction, Leanpub
• Anderson, D.J., 2003,Agile Management for Software Engineering.
Prentice Hall.
• Ellen Gottesdiener + Mary Gorman, 2012, Discover to Deliver, EBG
Publishing
• Alexei Zheglov, 2014, lead-time-and-iterative-software-development,
http://connected-knowledge.com
• Dimitar Bakardzhiev, 2015, probabilistic-project-sizing,
http://www.infoq.com
• Alistair Cockburn, 2013, Disciplined+Learning,
http://alistair.cockburn.us
Andrew Annett
andrew.annett@d2l.com
andrew@leanintuit.com
@akannett
Questions?
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