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Socio-Economic Scenarios of European Development and Integrated Management of the Marine Environment

Philip Cooper, Laurence Etherington, Stuart Bell,

Andrew Farmer & Julian Williams

University of Bath School of Management Working Paper Series

2008.08

This working paper is produced for discussion purposes only. The papers are expected to be published in due course, in revised form and should not be quoted without the author’s permission.

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2008.08 Philip Cooper,

Laurence

Etherington, Stuart

Bell, Andrew

Farmer & Julian

Williams

Socio-Economic Scenarios of European

Development and Integrated Management of the

Marine Environment

Socio-Economic Scenarios of European Development and

Integrated Management of the Marine Environment

Philip Cooper1∗, Laurence Etherington

2, Stuart Bell

2, Andrew Farmer

3, Julian

Williams1

1School of Management, University of Bath, Bath BA2 7AY, UK

2York Law School, University of York, Heslington, York, YO10 5DD, UK

3Institute for European Environmental Policy, 15 Queen Anne Gate, London SW1H 9BU, UK

Abstract

Integrated environmental management requires a holistic assessment of social-environmental

interactions to which scenario analysis is well-suited. Building on a conceptual framework of

individual choice manifested through lifestyles, we construct four scenarios of European

development reflecting alternative value systems and levels of governance stemming from

such choices. These are compared to a Baseline scenario derived from current trajectories of

socio-economic change and existing or planned policy measures at the European level. Our

analysis of the outcomes of these scenarios in terms of pressures on the marine environment

highlights differing inherent trade-offs between the extent of lifestyle choice and

environmental quality in each scenario and indicates that the greatest costs to conventional

economic welfare will not necessarily achieve the greatest environmental improvement.

Nevertheless, an evolution in individual values and thus lifestyle expectations is seen as

necessary to societal choices which achieve environmental improvement at some cost to

economic growth.

Keywords: scenarios, marine environment, integrated management, European lifestyle

∗ Corresponding author. Tel.: +44 (0)1225 386544. Email: p.cooper@bath.ac.uk

Introduction

Although there is a relatively long tradition of management of particular marine resources,

such as fisheries, attention has more recently turned to a more integrated perspective on the

interaction between human activities and the quality of the marine environment, both

analytically (see, for example, UNEP/RSP, 2006; Benoit and Comeau, 2005) and in terms of

the policy response. Arguably, the European Union has lead the way at the transnational

policy level with its recent directive requiring Member States to implement strategies so as to

“achieve or maintain good environmental status in the marine environment by the year 2020

at the latest” (EU, 2008). However, individual countries such as the UK (DEFRA, 2008)

have also been developing policies embodying a similar holistic approach in respect of their

own waters.

This shift in perspective can be attributed, at least in some part, to the adoption of the

Ecosystem Approach by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD, 2000) and its wider

application in the identification of management issues for marine and coastal environments

(see, for example, UNEP/GPA, 2006; Laffoley et al., 2004). At its core, this approach

involves recognition of biologically functional units of which humans may be an integral

component (CBD, 2000, Annex A). Thus, not only are “natural” (i.e. non-human) entities to

be considered as integrated parts of a system but so are human activities. Consequently,

under this approach the management response to anthropogenic change in the natural

environment requires as much an understanding of the relationships among human activities

as it does on the results of those activities for natural systems.

The Ecosystem Approach is seen by the Convention on Biological Diversity, and at least

implicitly by other adopters, as supporting achievement of “a balance” of three objectives:

conservation, sustainable use and fair and equitable distribution of benefits (CBD, 2000,

Annex A). Whether this view is theoretically or practically justified is outside the current

scope, as are the scientific issues connected with ecosystems. Rather, we are concerned here

with operationalising the approach in respect of human activities, in the first place as a

conceptual and analytical matter, and subsequently in terms of framing policy responses. The

principal challenge in this respect is identifying a means of representing complex systems in

toto so that dynamic relationships among human activities and their interface with natural

systems can be elucidated to inform an integrated management strategy for the marine

environment.

Without suggesting that this is the only feasible method of meeting the above challenge,

scenario analysis is investigated here as one such method with many attractive features. In

particular, defining scenarios as descriptions “of alternative visions of the future, created from

mental maps or models” (Rotmans et al., 2000; also adopted in EEA, 2000), they are

essentially pictures or representations of potential future conditions rather than forecasts

(IPCC, 2001, p.149) which can be used to highlight differences in particular features of

interest that result from the characteristics of the scenarios employed. Thus, in the current

context, scenarios of alternative development paths for human activities, with different

management strategies or lack of them, can be used to identify potential outcomes for the

marine environment. Furthermore, scenarios can be constructed to cover the full range of

relevant human activities and their interactions but are not necessarily required to encapsulate

a detailed specification of every conceivable feature of possible future conditions and they can

cover the relatively long timeframes required for analysis of change in the marine

environment. However, their validity does not depend on an ability to predict precisely what

would be observed at any particular point in the future even if the assumed conditions

pertained.

A further feature of scenario analysis that is of particular importance in operationalising the

Ecosystem Approach lies in the ability to derive scenarios from underlying assumptions about

societal choice, which is recognised as the determinant of management objectives (CBD,

2000, Annex B). This principle is incorporated in the design of the scenarios reported here, as

discussed further below. These scenarios were developed for use in a pan-European project

(ELME, European Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems) with a scope involving European seas

at a time horizon of around 2030.

In the next section we review existing scenarios for their potential usefulness in this context

and conclude that while none could be directly used for all the purposes of the project, certain

characteristics can be identified which should be reflected in the ELME scenarios.

Subsequently, the scenario development process founded on the principle of choice

manifested in individuals’ lifestyles is described. A description of the scenarios is then

presented, followed by a discussion of the lessons that might be learned concerning integrated

management of the marine environment. While attention is restricted to Europe, the

principles embodied in our scenarios and the emerging lessons are of relevance in other

contexts.

Scenarios in Environmental Management

The use of scenarios in strategic planning is not a recent innovation and has been employed

over at least the last half century (EEA, 2001, p.7). However, it is only more recently that the

tool has been applied widely in understanding long-term environmental change and assessing

strategic responses to those changes. A development that arguably has been supported in no

small part by their importance in the high-profile work of the Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (see, for example, Nakicenovic, 2000, developing the scenarios of Leggett et

al., 1992).

Comprehensive reviews of scenario methods and the burgeoning literature on the use of

scenarios in the environmental context (EEA, 2001; EEA 2000) make further review

unnecessary here, except to the extent that some updating for more recent examples is

required. Nevertheless, it is important at this stage to identify key concepts from this

literature which are relevant and provide at least some initial comments on their application to

this study.

i. The principal elements that define a scenarios (per EEA, 2001) are:

a. Description of changes – unless there is at least one change relative to a comparator,

the scenario cannot be distinguished from that comparator.

b. Specification of driving forces (or drivers) – the main factors that give rise to the

above changes.

c. Base year – the time at which the scenario commences.

d. Horizon – the most distant time covered by the scenario.1

1 EEA (2001) also refers to the potential for introducing intermediate scenario descriptions at times between the

base year and horizon. Such intermediate descriptions are not included here as ELME is concerned only with a

given horizon and describing intermediate years would not add to the portrayal of the horizon in view of the

limited analytical resolution at such intermediate stages.

e. Storyline – the narrative description of a scenario’s main features and their

relationship to its driving forces.

ii. Scenarios may be classified as “baseline” or “policy” scenarios, the former acting as a

basis for comparison or benchmark (EEA, 2001, p.11). As this source discusses, a

baseline scenario may represent an absence of environmental policy but the concept may

also encompass a scenario which recognises the implementation of current policy. A

“policy” scenario then describes the impact of alternative policy measures.

iii. The use of scenarios may be exploratory, in that they “explore trends into the future”, or

anticipatory, starting with a vision of the future and investigating what factors would lead

to that scenario emerging. ELME was concerned solely with exploratory scenarios in this

sense since the project was not constrained by any particular conception of the future.

iv. Scenario descriptions may be qualitative or quantitative. A qualitative description is

treated here as the prime requirement for the purposes of policy implications within the

project but also as a precursor to quantitative description for the purposes of modelling.

Primarily in the interests of efficiency in the use of resources, the approach to scenario

development in ELME was designed to adopt or, if necessary adapt, an existing scenario set

for the purposes of ELME. This approach also had the advantages of enhancing credibility

(by using an established precedent), and consistency (in that users would be able to compare

marine ecosystem effects with other environmental issues where the precedent deals with

other environmental issues).

In identifying an applicable precedent, several classes of criterion were applied. First, the

principal elements of scenarios (in i. above) should be reflected in the scenarios applied for

the purposes of ELME. While the more general characteristics (a, b and e) may be present in

any qualifying scenario, ELME is concerned with a base year in the period of the project

(2004-6, i.e. around 2005) and a horizon of around 2030. Second, such scenarios should

relate to the scope of ELME in terms of its geographical coverage (essentially Europe and her

seas) and include some recognition of marine ecosystem effects. Third, there should be some

set of realistic fundamental distinguishing factors that relate to societal choices and an

interpretation of those factors in terms of the socio-economic drivers most closely associated

with degradation of the marine environment. Finally, for the purposes of modelling, ideally

the interpretation in socio-economic terms should permit quantification.

A summary of the assessment of recent precedent studies dealing with environmentally-

oriented scenarios against the above criteria, along with comments on particular features of

those studies, are given in Table 1. The studies selected for this comparison were those

identified by IPCC (2001), excluding those designed for a particular non-European country,

and subsequently published scenarios that might be potentially relevant. These criteria mean

that certain of the studies highlighted in EEA (2001) are excluded from the comparison on the

grounds that the study is relatively old, with an outdated horizon (Bertrand et al., 1999;

Stigliani et al., 1989), or has a narrow focus not directly relevant to ELME (Cosgrove and

Rijsberman, 2001; Alcamo et al., 1998). The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006) was

also excluded as its four scenarios derive from two dimensions of differentiating factors both

concerned with the social approach to sustainability rather than from visions of broader

economic and social development, from which environmental/ecological implications arise.

Table 1 Assessment of Precedent Studies against the ELME Requirements

Criterion2 SRES

3 ACACIA (2000) UKCIP (2001) AFMEC (2004) UNEP/RIVM (2003)

General scenario

characteristics (i. a, b, e) ✓

✓ (partially based on SRES and other studies within this category)

Horizon c.2030 ✓ (various horizons up to

✘ (horizon range 2020-

2080, not year-specific)

✓ (2020s)

✓ (2025-2035)

✓ (2032)

European scale ✘ (essentially designed for

the global level)

✘ (UK oriented)

Marine ecosystem effects ✘ (oriented towards climate change effects generally)

✘ (predominantly concerned

with terrestrial

ecosystems)

Fundamental factors used

for scenario identification

(dimensions)

✓ (economic v.

environmental; global v.

regional)

✓ (consumerist v.

conservationist;

globalisation v.

localisation)

✓ (values: consumerism v.

community;

governance: autonomy v.

interdependence)

✓ (acknowledges

adoption of UKCIP

(2001) although

wording slightly

different)

✓ (prioritisation: markets v.

policy v. security v.

sustainability)

Interpretation in

Immediate Driver

variables

(Immediate Drivers

restricted to those

generating greenhouse

gases)

✘ (concerned with climate

change effects)

✓/✘ (detailed qualitative description at the sectoral level)

✘ (concerned with climate

change effects)

Quantification of drivers ✓ ✘ ✓ (detailed as regards

underlying drivers)

✘ ✘ (focuses on State

changes)

✓ = Criterion satisfied

✘ = Criterion not satisfied

2 The base year requirement was excluded as no study contemporary with ELME, and thus using the same base year, was identified.

3 Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (Nakicenovic, 2000).

The ACACIA, UKCIP and AFMEC studies included in the comparison share a common

heritage in the general scenarios of OST (1998), which have subsequently been developed

further (OST, 2002). Common characteristics as shown in Table 1 are therefore to be

expected.

The comparison in Table 1 demonstrates that none of the precedent studies identified was

ideally suited to the purposes of ELME. The principal obstacles to adoption of any of these

studies in toto are the lack of a combination of orientation towards marine ecosystems,

European scale and detail in the specification of drivers relevant to ELME. Consequently, it

was necessary to develop scenarios in a way that met the needs of ELME. Nevertheless, the

comparison highlights areas of common ground or specific features of these precedent studies

that can be exploited in the current study.

First, there is some coalescence around the nature of the fundamental factors that shape the

nature of society and consequently the drivers of environmental degradation and responses

thereto which derives from SRES.4 This phenomenon is illustrated in Table 2. UNEP/RIVM

(2003), which is based on the UNEP Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-3), appears to

adopt a distinct approach in this respect, using unipolar rather than orthogonal dimensions,

but, as Table 2 shows, its scenarios can be aligned with those of the other scenario studies.

The appropriateness of this approach to consideration of marine ecosystem effects is

demonstrated by the AFMEC study and it is therefore adopted as the basis for the ELME

scenarios – further development for the purposes of ELME is described in the next section

below.

Second, only UKCIP is transparent in terms of its quantitative description of underlying

drivers and its consideration of driver sectors relevant to ELME. Consequently, it provides a

model for the scenario descriptions in ELME. AFMEC – the only study identified that

focuses on marine ecosystems – also pursued this approach but restricted its review of sectors

to those with the most direct effects in the marine environment. For example, in the energy

sector it discusses potential developments in oil and gas extraction activities, and offshore

renewable energy sources, but does not deal with pressures from the less direct driver

activities connected with energy, such as NOx emissions from fossil fuel combustion.

Nevertheless, the AFMEC findings are particularly pertinent to ELME and are used to inform

and assess the scenarios developed in this study.

Third, in their published form, none of the studies provides a methodology for translating the

scenarios into the range of variables representing drivers most proximal to pressures on the

marine environment which are relevant to ELME. However, UKCIP is notable in at least

providing some quantification of a range of underlying drivers, which can be utilised in

calibrating ELME’s scenarios.

4 Hertin et al. (1999) also identify a similar logic in the SRES and OST (1998) approaches.

Table 2 Analysis of Scenario Studies by Paradigms representing Fundamental Distinguishing Factors5

Dominant social values→→→→ Scale of development/decision-making

↓↓↓↓

Economically oriented with no special

attention to social and environmental

consequences

Preservation of social and environmental

Larger scale, more global

SRES: A1 (rapid economic growth with international

convergence)

ACACIA: World Markets

UKCIP: World Markets

AFMEC: World Markets

UNEP/RIVM: Markets First (“market-driven

developments converge on currently prevailing values”)

SRES: B1 (convergent world with global solutions to

sustainability issues)

ACACIA: Global Sustainability

UKCIP: Global Sustainability

AFMEC: Global Commons

UNEP/RIVM: Sustainability First (“a new development

paradigm emerges in response to the challenge of

sustainability”)

Smaller scale, more local

SRES: A2 (self-reliance leading to regionally differentiated

growth)

ACACIA: Provincial Enterprise

UKCIP: National Enterprise

AFMEC: Fortress Britain

UNEP/RIVM: Security First (“large disparities … brought

about by socio-economic and environmental stresses

prevail”)

SRES: B2 (local solutions to sustainability issues are

implemented)

ACACIA: Local Stewardship

UKCIP: Local Stewardship

AFMEC: Local Stewardship

UNEP/RIVM: Policy First (“strong actions are undertaken

by governments to achieve specific social and

environmental goals”)

5 For study references, see Table 1.

Conceptual Framework for the ELME Scenarios

To reconcile the dimensions of scenario construction identified above with the concept of

societal choice in the Convention on Biological Diversity, we adopt a conceptual framework

in which social phenomena and their environmental consequences are viewed as the aggregate

result of common individual values manifested in lifestyle choices. Thus, lifestyle is the

expression of an individual’s values visible through patterns of consumption choices and

other behaviours, within the constraints of their income, information available to them, the

state of technology, and the relevant regulatory system and it these choices which ultimately

drive environmental change.

As illustrated in Figure 1, the framework links consumption choices, as a key manifestation of

lifestyle, to drivers of environmental change through two principal classes of driver activity:

consumption (individual consumption of a good6 arising directly from that individual’s

choices, e.g. use of private road travel stemming from the desire for personal mobility) and

production (activities are concerned with the processes that produce a good for consumption

or the means for such final production, e.g. intensive livestock rearing as a response to the

demand for inexpensive animal protein).

Figure 1 The Link between Lifestyle and Environmental Change

In a pure market economy, production activities are undertaken in response (ultimately) to

consumption demand from individuals. Hence consumption activities are shown as

influencing production activities in Figure 1. However, the framework recognises that in

6 “Good” and “goods” are used in the economic sense to include services.

Individual values

Lifestyle

Consumption activities

Production activities

Consumption choices

Political choices

Policy

Socio-economic drivers

Environmental change

lead(s) to/cause(s) is associated with influences

reality non-market institutional demands may arise for social purposes, e.g. subsidy of

favoured production activities such as under the Common Agricultural Policy, so that policy

influences production. In this case, policy is not necessarily directed towards environmental

objectives but other forms of policy may be targeted on production and/or consumption

activities with this goal in mind. These relations are captured in the framework along with the

idea that policy ultimately represents the choices of individuals expressed not just in voting

preference but through participation in the political process and, more subtly, in public

opinion which influences the decisions of policymakers.

In the interests of clarity, Figure 1 does not indicate all the relationships that the framework

encompasses. Most notably, by virtue of its reference to “other behaviours”, the definition of

lifestyle includes forms of choice that are ostensibly private in character but in aggregate alter

the level and/or nature of consumption, e.g. choice of family size. Furthermore, it does not

explicitly recognise that consumption choices are conditioned by the individual’s previous

choices, thus shaping expectations, i.e. choices are dynamic.

Although in this framework consumption and political choices are treated as products of

individual values, this is not to say that the two will necessarily appear as consistent at either

the individual or aggregate levels. An individual may make consumption choices that ignore

environmental consequences but vote for policies to restrict or curtail such choices, e.g. to

avoid free-riding behaviour by others on their personal actions, or where the individual’s

political choices are guided by an ethical attitude towards environmental quality but believes

their consumption choices are immaterial. Therefore, the framework needs to allow for some

duality in the expression of values.

Apparent contradictions in choices at the individual level, as illustrated above, are only one of

the challenges facing policy-makers. Arguably, a more complex challenge arises from the

heterogeneity in the willingness of individuals to trade-off between the two types of choice: in

the extreme there will be individuals who will resist any trade off because they feel they are

entitled to completely unfettered consumption choices, while others will each have their own

level of acceptance for the extent to which consumption choices may be restricted in favour of

public policy towards the environment. The conceptual framework does not seek to prescribe

where the balance should lie between unfettered consumption choices and public policy but

highlights the complexity of public decisions that arise from individual values and suggests

two major routes for the implementation of environmental policy: consumption choices (e.g.

through differential taxation of goods proportional to their environmental impacts) and

production activities (e.g. through emissions permits). However, as we shall discuss later, the

framework also implies that policy can act through the shaping of values and their expression,

such as through modifying the information constraint – an observed choice may not be that

which would have been exercised had the individual had more or better information available.

Development of the ELME Scenarios

The development process involved firstly the preparation of narrative descriptions of the

socio-economic scenarios at the European Union level and secondly descriptions of their

outcomes in terms of changes in the driver activities most closely associated with marine

environmental degradation as identified in a survey of natural scientists participating in the

ELME project. In each case, the descriptions comprised a narrative and a summary of

directional change in specified parameters, as described below. Subsequently, these

descriptions were utilised in other parts of the project, not reported here, to adapt the

scenarios to conditions pertaining to Europe’s the regional seas, for the purposes of

establishing possible changes in environmental state by the project’s natural scientists, and in

exploring quantitative representation of the scenarios with a view to more sophisticated

modelling of social-environmental interactions.

As discussed above, the basis for our approach was the orthogonal categorisation of scenario

dimensions typified by the UKCIP study: socio-political values that shape individual and

societal choices (consumerism v. community) and the predominant level of governance

(autonomy v. interdependence). Thus, four scenarios are defined, referred to here as

Alternative Scenarios to distinguish them from what is referred to as the Baseline scenario: a

depiction of developments reflecting current expectations in demographic, economic and

technological terms, taking into account all implemented and adopted policies (although

inherent targets are not assumed to be achieved a priori).7

While the scenarios that arise from this characterisation are comparable among ELME and the

precedent studies that have used it or a similar framework (see Table 2), there are some subtle

differences in the scenarios deriving from the “community” side of the values dimension, as

reflected in the titles of the scenarios used here. These differences stem from concerns as to

the way in which community values have been interpreted in previous studies in three ways:

• First, previous interpretations have tended to be established to demonstrate particular

outcomes – this area of research aims to assess the environmental outcomes of socio-

economic scenarios but the scenarios are structured in such a way as to result in those

outcomes constituting an improved environment, i.e. the scenarios are in the nature of a

“self-fulfilling prophecy” of their results.

• Second, even if these scenarios are seen as anticipatory (describing the conditions

necessary to an improved environmental outcome), it is then essential to describe the

socio-economic costs associated with environmental enhancement or the avoidance of

environmental degradation. Arguably, these costs have not been given sufficient

prominence in previous studies.

• Third, it is not necessarily the case that some focus on “community values” must lead to

improved welfare, for example an emphasis on community values may lead to

prioritisation of environmental goods beyond the level that society might otherwise prefer

and, in the case of local decision-making, may result in environmental externalities merely

being shifted to another locality.

To address these concerns, the “community values” scenarios in ELME are not represented as

necessarily leading to or being driven by environmental improvement (hence the titles of

“local responsibility” rather than “local stewardship” and “global community” instead of

“global sustainability”). Furthermore, the narrative descriptions of these scenarios emphasise

their costs, e.g. the “local responsibility” scenario makes explicit the limitations in choice of

food and in the availability of energy that would arise in such a scenario. By doing so, the

scenarios are more realistic and better represent the nature of the real policy choices that are

involved.

7 The Alternative Scenarios correspond to IPCC’s (2001) “policy” scenarios but they are not referred to as such

since the Baseline itself also represents manifestation of policy, i.e. it is a “no new policy” scenario rather than a

“no policy” scenario.

These considerations are reflected in the ELME scenarios as depicted in Figure 2, which

include slogans intended to encapsulate the nature of the respective scenarios, as

recommended by AFMEC (2004).8

Figure 2 Dimensions of the ELME Scenarios

Autonomy

Interdependence

CommunityConsumerism Baseline

Current “best guess”

Local Responsibility

“Think local, act local!”

Global Community

“We’ve got the whole world in our hands”

World Markets

“Growth is good”

National Enterprise

“Pull up the drawbridge!”

VALUES

GOVERNANCE

The Alternative Scenario narratives were drawn substantially from the precedents, particularly

UKCIP (2001), but amended where appropriate in light of the above; the Baseline was

constructed from predictive information in a variety of sources as shown in the Scenario

Narrative Descriptions (Appendix 1).

The values and policy elements were initially based upon ACACIA (2000) as this set the

narrative at the EU policy level, rather than nationally or globally. This meant that variations

in policy and values from Baseline were considered within the geopolitical scope of the

ELME project. As such, elements of the scenarios considered possible futures in terms such

as closer integration v. disintegration of the EU. Moreover, the resulting policy implications

were then viewed from the appropriate perspective.

Table 3 provides summaries of the Alternative Scenarios, the detail of which, along with the

narrative of the Baseline scenario, can be found in Appendix 1. This appendix also explains

the approach adopted to geographical scoping and potential issues (e.g. carbon sequestration

beneath the seabed) in the scenario development process.

8 It is emphasised that the Alternative Scenarios encompass the extremes of the two dimensions to enhance

distinctiveness and thus highlight differences in terms of the State changes in marine ecosystems. It is not

intended to assert that any one scenario would provide a complete description of a future state of the world. In

reality, any outturn different from the Baseline is likely to have some features of some or all of the Alternative

Scenarios.

Table 3 Summaries of the Alternative Scenarios

National Enterprise

Values & Policy - Individualistic, high personal

consumption, low taxes, market-based, but strong

commitment to national culture and interests. Little

concern for social equity or environmental protection.

Sovereignty retained or taken back to national level.

Erosion of EU and protectionist measures weaken

Demography - Population affected by little inward

migration and relatively low birth rates, though age

distribution balanced to some degree by diminished

longevity. Migration to internal growth ‘hot spots’ and

average household size stable, but with household

numbers increasing more slowly than under Baseline.

Economy - Priority of growth undermined by

protectionist policies. Focus on meeting internal

demand and security of supply. Trade diminished

within EU but not as much as extra-EU. Considerable

variation in regional development.

Values & Policy – Communitarian, co-operative self-

reliance. High levels of public services funded by high

local taxation. Strong emphasis on social equity and

environmental protection at the local level. Local

government replaces national and supra-national

governance. EU becomes more diverse with regional

autonomy and fragmented policy.

Demography – Population size stable, but relatively low

birth rates and increased public health provision increases

average age. General migration away from cities, with

household size increases and household number

reductions.

Economy – Slow growth, exacerbated by tax levels, with

increases in smaller scale production. Trade greatly

diminished, but with some preference fro intra-EU over

external trade. Growth more even across communities.

World Markets

Values & Policy – Libertarian, techno-centric,

materialist consumerism. Presumption in favour of

market provision. Growth more important than social

equity, with environmental policy limited to

correction and support of the market. Increased global

interdependence and governance, through WTO and

multinational corporations. Corporate governance

starts to displace government. Policy determined at

regional trading bloc and international level. Rapid

enlargement of EU.

Demography – Population growth slow overall but

migration increases to meet demand for labour

reduces proportion of older people. Growth uneven

across regions. Smaller and more numerous

households.

Economy – Rapid growth, with dismantling of trade

barriers increasing intra and extra-EU trade. Service

sector dominates others, with decline of agriculture

and manufacturing. Benefits of growth spread to some

extent through ‘spill over’ effects.

Global Community

Values & Policy – Communitarian, with internationalist

values and increasing globalisation of governance

systems, to deal global, interconnected problems.

Balancing of economic, social and environmental

welfare, with preference for latter and willingness to

accept high tax levels. Policy coordinated at EU and

international level, but implemented at local level. EU

more centralised, with less regional autonomy, and

slower expansion. Environmental policy expands across

policy sectors and prioritised. Powerful, green WTO

favours environmental protection in trade disputes

Demography – Low birth rates offset by migration

increases to meet demand for labour, with some increase

in average age and relatively static distribution.

Household size declines slowly and numbers grow at

historic rates.

Economy – Growth constrained by tax levels and social

& environmental objectives. Shift to services is slower

than in Baseline. Growth in intra and extra-EU trade, but

with some inhibition through ‘footprint’ concerns.

Development evenly distributed, though with some

transitional variations.

In order to provide a rapid overview, the scenario descriptions were translated into a simple

categorical (-/0/+) representation to indicate the direction of change for each factor, including

sectoral activity level, for the Baseline relative to the present and for each Alternative

Scenario relative to the Baseline, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4 Summary of Directional Changes in Underlying Drivers

DRIVER BASELINE NATIONAL

ENTERPRISE

RESPONSIBILITY

WORLD MARKETS GLOBAL

COMMUNITY

compared to present compared to Baseline (except for regional differentiation)

DEMOGRAPHY

Population size + - - + 0/+

Geographical distribution EU15 +/New10 - EU15 -/New10 + EU15 -/New10 + EU15 +/New10 0 EU15 +/New10 -

Age distribution (proportion older) ++ + ++ - 0/-

Household numbers ++ - -- 0/+ 0

ECONOMY

Growth (in real GDP) ++ - -- ++ 0/-

Structure (share of GVA):

services[industry[agriculture

+[-[- --[++[+ --[++[++ +[-[- -[+[+

International trade (in goods)

- within the EU ++ - -- 0 0

- outside the EU + - -- + 0/+

Regional differentiation, GDP growth

N10>EU15 N10>EU15 N10≥EU15 N10>>EU15 N10≥EU15

SECTORS

Agricultural production + + + - 0/-

Energy: production10[consumption -[+ +[- +[-- -[+ -[-

Fisheries production[capture effort +[0 0[0/- --[- 0[+ -[0

Household consumption11 ++ - -- 0 0/-

Industry + + + 0 0

Tourism ++ - -- 0/+ -

Transport12

- terrestrial + - -- ++ 0/+

- maritime + - -- + 0/+

- air + - -- + -

Urban/coastal development + + - 0 -

Key: (-)- (much) less than comparator 0 same as comparator (+)+ (much) more than comparator

9 Value of GDP: EU15>N10 in all cases.

10 Refers to primary production of energy from natural resources, e.g. hydrocarbon extraction, wind power, rather than electricity generation.

11 Refers to consumption of resources and production of waste streams by individuals, to the extent this is not captured by the other sectors.

12 Transport proxies for Alternative Scenarios: GDP (terrestrial); ex-EU trade (maritime); tourism (air).

Implications of the Scenarios for Socio-Economic Drivers of Marine Degradation

The narrative interpretations of the ELME scenarios in terms of the driver activities most

closely associated with degradation of the marine environment, i.e. the scenario outcomes, are

given in Appendix 2 and a summary representing directional change in relevant indicators in

Table 5. Baseline outcomes were heavily informed by the sources used in preparing the

Baseline scenario description (most notably EEA, 2005a). However, describing the

Alternative Scenario outcomes entailed largely novel considerations. Although the AFMEC

(2004) study was utilised with regard to some sectors, more generally, the precedent studies

had not involved the level of detail required for many drivers of particular relevance to marine

ecosystems. An additional complication arose from the fact that it was essential to factor in

policy and technological developments that might decouple sectoral activity from

environmental pressures so that historically observed relationships might not hold within the

respective scenarios.

In summary, the envisaged Outcomes are as follows:

Baseline

Under the Baseline scenario, there are increases in production/volume in all sectors. Although

policy responses suggest that there will be some decoupling of the impact of these increases,

the drivers in the tourism, transport and urbanisation sectors are largely unaffected, so that the

pressures from these sectors are likely to increase.

National Enterprise

Development along the lines of National Enterprise would contrast with Baseline in a number

of ways.

Economic growth would be lower, but agricultural production would no longer be decoupled

from outcomes in terms of fertiliser usage and thus pressures from nitrogen and phosphorus

discharges. Energy production would increase over Baseline and, although consumption

would decrease, the decoupling of outcomes from drivers would again be diminished, with

moves towards less eco-efficient production. Similarly, the decoupling of household sector

outcomes from drivers would decrease.

Development in the industry sector would be a particular threat to the environment under this

scenario as the erosion of decoupling of outcomes would be in addition to an increase in

production. On the other hand, pressures from activities in the tourism and transport sectors

together with some aspects of urbanisation and development would decrease. Accordingly,

National Enterprise represents a world where the threats of anthropogenic degradation of the

marine environment would increase in some sectors, but diminish in others.

Under the Local Responsibility scenario, all drivers fall, save for those in the agriculture,

energy and industry sectors, which increase relative to Baseline. However, even in those

sectors where there is some increase in production/volume, outcomes would reflect additional

decoupling.

The corollary of these activity changes is a very significant decrease in economic growth in

comparison to Baseline. Thus, Local Responsibility represents a world where many drivers

of anthropogenic degradation of the marine environment reduce, or are decoupled, but where

economic development diminishes greatly, with consequent effects on lifestyle choices

available to the individual.

World Markets

The outcomes of development within the World Markets scenario are complex.

In general, there would be few increases in production over Baseline, but the lack of policy

responses would remove the decoupling present in the Baseline scenario. Increases in

consumption (fuelled by increased economic growth) and in transport volume (reflecting

increasing trade) over and above Baseline would exacerbate the effects of this removal of

decoupling.

This scenario would also highlight the issue of the “export” of environmental pressures and

degradation from the production of goods required to meet the consumption demands of a

wealthier EU, so that the “footprint” outside its borders would be increasingly significant.

Accordingly, the World Markets scenario represents a world where the threats of

anthropogenic degradation of the marine environment through socio-economic drivers and

(lack of) policy responses would be severe, both within the EU and beyond.

Although highlighted by the World Markets scenario, the issue of “footprint” is one which is

relevant to other scenarios, including Baseline. However, in this scenario in addition to the

export of environmental pressures and degradation is the issue of their import creating a

broader footprint within the EU, for example through activities such as tourism from outside

the EU25, particularly to the Mediterranean in this case.

Global Community

The path of development under the Global Community scenario would result in decreased

driver activities and thus environmental pressures relative to Baseline in all sectors except

transport. As in Local Responsibility, the corollary is that economic growth would be lower

than under World Markets and relative to Baseline, with similar but not as pronounced

consequences for individual choice.

Perhaps the most significant feature of this scenario is that it would combine a decoupling of

outcomes from drivers through policy responses with changes to consumption patterns arising

from the development of environmentally-focused values. Accordingly, Global Community

represents a world where the drivers of anthropogenic degradation of the marine environment

are addressed through value changes and policy responses, but where economic growth is

slower than under Baseline.

Table 5 Summary of Directional Changes in Scenario Outcomes DRIVER SECTOR & INDICATOR BASELINE NATIONAL

ENTERPRISE

RESPONSIBILITY

COMMUNITY

compared to present compared to Baseline

AGRICULTURE + + + - 0/-

Fertilizer usage (A1) (EU15[New8) 0/-[++ + - + 0/-

Pesticide usage (A2) (EU15[New8) 0[+ + - - 0/-

Livestock (A3) (EU15[New8) 0[+ 0 - 0 0/-

ENERGY production13[consumption -[+ +[- +[-- -[+ -[-

Electricity derived from fossil fuels (E1) + + -- + -

NOx emissions from electricity generation

- + - + -

Oil refining infrastructure (E2X) - + - + -

Fossil fuel, primary production (E3) - + - 0 -

FISHERIES & AQUACULTURE

Fisheries production[capture effort +[0 0[0/- --[- 0[+ -[0

Aquaculture production (F1) ++ + 0 - -

Trawling and dredging fleet (F2) - + - 0 -

Use of dredging/benthic trawling gears

0 - -- 0/+ --

HOUSHOLD CONSUMPTION14 ++ - -- 0 0/-

Waste water at least secondary treatment

+ -- 0 - 0

Domestic BOD discharges (H2) - 0 - + -

Water consumption (H3) 0 + -- 0 -

Municipal waste landfilled (H4a) - + -- 0 -

Generation of waste by households (H4b) + - -- 0 0/-

INDUSTRY + + + 0 0

Industrial BOD discharges (I1) - + -- - --

Industrial COD discharges (I2) - + -- - --

13 Refers to primary production of energy from natural resources, e.g. hydrocarbon extraction, wind power, rather than electricity generation.

14 Refers to consumption of resources and production of waste streams by individuals, to the extent this is not captured by the other sectors.

DRIVER SECTOR & INDICATOR BASELINE NATIONAL

ENTERPRISE

RESPONSIBILITY

COMMUNITY

compared to present compared to Baseline

Industrial metals discharges (I3) -- + -- - --

TOURISM & RECREATION ++ - -- 0/+ -

Incoming tourism (T1) ++ -- -- + -

Tourism departures (T2) ++ -- -- + -

TRANSPORT

+ - -- ++ 0

+ - -- + 0/+

Transport15

- terrestrial

- maritime

- air + - -- + -

Road NOx emissions (R1P) 0 0 -- + -

Maritime NOx emissions (R2P) + - -- ++ -

Recreational craft (R3) + - - ++ 0

Aviation NOx emissions (R4P) + - -- ++ -

URBANISATION/DEVELOPMENT + + - 0 -

Coastal area urbanised (U1) + - -- + -

Proportion coast developed (U2) + - -- + -

Area reclaimed (U3) 0 + - 0 0

Port development (U4) + - - ++ 0

Key: (-)- (much) less than comparator 0 same as comparator (+)+ (much) more than comparator

15 Transport proxies: GDP (terrestrial); ex-EU trade (maritime); tourism (air).

Discussion and Conclusions In order to develop a rigorous Baseline scenario, socio-economic data and policy responses

were analysed to describe driver activity by sector and the underlying drivers, and elucidate

the lifestyle choices represented by these activities to date and going forward to the scenario

time horizon. The picture emerging of anthropogenic pressures on the marine environment

from this development trajectory, with existing and anticipated policy measures maintained or

introduced, is at best mixed.

There is evidence of decoupling of pressures from driver activities due to socio-economic

developments (e.g. technological factors) or policy measures, which can be expected to

continue. For example, the number of households connected to at least secondary waste water

treatment facilities has decoupled the amount of discharged biological oxygen demand from

the increase in the number of households due to the requirements of the Urban Waste Water

Treatment Directive (91/271/EEC) and technological improvements in waste water treatment.

Similarly, the amount of municipal waste consigned to landfill has reduced and is likely to

continue to do so, despite increases in municipal waste generation, because of the Landfill

Directive. However, in some cases no such link was identifiable, despite direct and indirect

policy responses having been recognised. A number of reasons can be suggested for this

failure, such as time lags, socio-economic changes, paucity of data and shortcomings in

implementation and compliance, but the possibility remains of policy failure in tackling the

root causes of environmental degradation.

Of potentially more concern in terms of environmental protection are those cases where the

integrated assessment revealed drivers in areas like tourism and spatial planning not currently

subject to EU competence, where substantial growth in activity if foreseen but it seems

unlikely that competence might be expanded purely to deal with environmental concerns even

given their trans-boundary causes and consequences. Here there is a need for further research

to identify what policy responses have been introduced at national and sub-national levels,

and to analyse the results of these. This could inform initiatives for cooperation and

coordination of such areas in order to address the EU competence limitations. A further issue

deserving of further investigation and research is the extent to which and how environmental

aspects are integrated into cross-sectoral management and decision-making.

The Alternative Scenarios constructed on changes in underlying values and so lifestyle

choices indicate how such changes might ultimately impact on pressures on the marine

environment and highlight trade-offs that would arise where societal choice is more heavily

guided by environmental protection. The heightened consumerist orientation of the National

Enterprise and Global Markets scenarios does not unequivocally result in greater

environmental pressure in European seas given the reduction in trans-boundary activities in

the former case and the “export” of environmental pressures in the latter. Nevertheless, the

risk of such an increase is greater in the World Markets scenario, and across a greater sectoral

range, but this has to be balanced against the prospects of growth in wealth; diminished

environmental risks in certain sectors in the National Enterprise scenario come at the cost of

diminished economic growth.

Similarly trade-offs arise even where a contrasting value system (community) is assumed.

The Local Responsibility scenario results in much reduced pressures from some, but not all,

sectors at the cost of much reduced economic growth. Thus, in an integrated perspective,

pursuit of a value and governance system embodying the principles of this scenario could

result in much reduced individual wealth compared to the Baseline but with increased

environmental pressures in certain sectors because production is not organized in the most

efficient fashion. The Global Community represents less stark choices for society in that any

reduction in economic growth against Baseline is not expected to be as great as under the

Local Responsibility scenario but neither are the environmental benefits in certain sectors.

However, it would carry the clear advantage of generally avoiding increases in pressure in

other sectors because of the benefits of trade. Overall, therefore, the Global Community

scenario highlights the importance of trans-boundary cooperation if environmental

improvement is to be achieved at the least economic cost.

In Europe, this concept of interdependence is built into policy development through the role

of the EU. Certainly, over at least the first part of the time horizon of this scenario study, it

has a programme of both policy development and implementation with a substantial direct

bearing on the marine environment, for example in the implementation of Marine Strategy

and Water Framework directives and Natura 2000, as well as in the cyclical review of sectoral

policy areas, particularly the Common Agriculture Policy and Common Fisheries Policy.

However, a lesson from this scenario analysis is that shared environmental governance is of

itself insufficient to secure substantial improvement in environmental quality or avoid further

degradation. The extent to which that goal is achieved is a matter of societal choice, as

emphasised by the Ecosystem Approach, constrained by the values of its stakeholders.

Within this perspective, policy opportunities are restricted by the extent of willingness to

trade-off against economic costs representing limitations on lifestyle choices and a

continuation of the more traditional pressure-oriented policy responses to environmental

change will not challenge the root causes of environmental degradation – individuals’

underlying values and their resulting lifestyles. It is such a challenge that provides the best

opportunity for the most widespread effect on environmental degradation.

As a result, attention should be directed not only to developing policy responses to particular

environmental pressures in the short to medium term but also to the scope for the

development of values and lifestyles in the longer term. Not only would this approach reduce

the risk of policy being seen as running ‘against the grain’ of public opinion because in the

existing value system it is perceived as reducing welfare but also potentially result in a wide

range of environmental benefits not confined to the marine environment. On the other hand,

the absence of such an approach means that individuals’ environmentally damaging choices

and activities become entrenched as expectations. A relatively recent example of such

entrenchment is the availability of cheap air travel, developing an expectation of an

entitlement to regular tourism trips. If values are modified so that the lifestyle choice is not to

travel in ways or with frequencies which degrade the environment, then a positive feedback

loop can develop where such choices and policy are synchronised.

The difficulties in effecting such changes are not underestimated. Evolution of human values

may be the most effective of any policy response to environmental degradation, but will only

evolve over the long term, supported by education, provision of information (to support

individual decision-making and preference formation, and also participatory processes. These

might be developed through policies which seek to implement further the objectives of the

1998 Aarhus Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-Making

and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters. Alternatively, step-changes in values may

result as a reaction to extreme unpredicted events but it can hardly be a matter of policy to

simply await such events.

Given the great challenges in creating an environment in which individual values evolve in

this direction, it is unlikely that that there will be a radical change in values/lifestyles effected

through policy over the time horizon employed in the scenarios here. However, there would

seem to be good grounds for at least initiating this evolutionary process given the level of

public concern in the EU, as well as that of policy-makers, regarding environmental issues,

and in particular water pollution (EC, 2005).

Although attention here has been necessarily focussed on European society and European seas

by virtue of the nature of the ELME project, we believe our conceptual framework, the

scenarios developed therefrom and our analytic approach are of wider relevance and

applicability in pursuing integrated management of the marine environment.

Acknowledgement

The work described in this paper was conducted as part of project ELME (European

Lifestyles and Marine Ecosystems) funded by the European Commission under its Sixth

Framework Programme, contract number 505576.

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Appendix 1

NARRATIVE SCENARIO DESCRIPTIONS

BASELINE 25

NATIONAL ENTERPRISE 28

LOCAL RESPONSIBILITY 31

WORLD MARKETS 34

GLOBAL COMMUNITY 37

Summary of Precedents used in Scenario Development

The scenario descriptions are the work of WP6 but are informed by the following precedents:

BASELINE SCENARIO SOURCES

Values and policy ACACIA (2000), AFMEC (2004) and UKCIP (2001)

Demography

Economy

Sectors other than as below

Adapted from EEA (2005a) and EC (2003)

Fisheries FAO (2004), Delgado et al. (2003)

Household EEA (2005b)

Tourism EEA (2005b), WTO (2000) and Benoit and Comeau (2005)

Urban/coastal development Adapted from Benoit and Comeau (2005)

OTHER SCENARIOS Broadly derived from UKCIP (2001)

Scoping Matters

The scenario development process dealt with the EU in aggregate (EU25) although attention

is drawn in the following to features specific to parts of the union where appropriate.

Generally, this is only necessary in respect of new Member States (New10 or, where

agricultural data availability is concerned, excluding Malta and Cyprus, New8).

The accession of Bulgaria and Romania to the EU is not separately discussed and general

trends in these countries under the scenarios should be assumed to be similar to those

discussed for the New10. In aggregate terms, these countries have little impact due to their

relatively small populations and economies but the environmental consequences of their

development will be important at the regional sea level. It is also assumed that the

environmental policies of Turkey and other applicants will tend to converge with those of the

EU as they prepare for accession.

In the course of preparing the scenario descriptions, certain “emerging drivers” became

apparent. These are drivers which were not identified as a current priority in the expert

survey but which are envisaged as likely to become so over the scenario time horizon under

the relevant scenario(s) and sea. These drivers are separately listed in the summary tables.

The potential was also identified for certain events or activities to occur over this period

regardless of the scenario pertaining, but it was considered that their likelihood and

implications were highly uncertain because of the limitations of current knowledge. For

example, carbon sequestration in exhausted hydrocarbon reservoirs beneath the North Sea

may conceivably commence during the relevant period but it is unclear what this might entail

in terms of infrastructure requirements, increased shipping etc. In such cases, the item is not

recognised.

Abbreviations

GDP = Gross domestic product; GVA = Gross value added

Appendix 1

DRIVER BASELINE

VALUES AND POLICY

Overview17 There is no radical change in policies targeting the environmental effects of production and consumption patterns within the EU.

Similarly, social and cultural values and preferences do not radically alter, but do adjust to reflect the ageing population and growing

service-orientation of the economy, particularly in terms of demands for education and social mobility. At the global level,

environmental matters receive relatively limited attention while trade agreements support increased trade and competitiveness.

DEMOGRAPHY

Population size Stabilising and ageing. The population of EU25 stays fairly constant until 2030, increasing by 1.1% over the 2000 level. Net inward

migration is the largest contributor to population growth in the EU. In the EEA, population grows by about 4.3% due to relatively rapid

growth in the Turkish population.

Geographical

distribution

EU15 population grows by 2.6% but New10 population declines by 8% compared to 2000 levels. Poland is the key component in the

latter as it accounts for 50% of the population (as it does currently). Settlement on the Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts is intensified

due to the ageing population and increasing purchase of second homes supported by higher incomes.

Age distribution The proportion of the population constituted by over-65’s increases from 15% to 25% in EU25 and from 10% to 22% in New10 over

the period from the present to 2030.

Household

numbers

The trend of decline in average size of household continues throughout the EU25, reducing average household size to below 2.5 persons

by 2030. Thus, the number of households grows faster than the population in the EU15, reaching about 25% over the 2000 level in

2030. Over the same period, the growth in household numbers in the New10 is less dramatic but is still approximately 9%. These

trends reflect the ageing population, with increases in the number of one or two pensioner households, the preference for later formation

of partnerships amongst younger adults, and the increase in divorce rates.

ECONOMY

Growth Sustained and moderate. Between 2000 and 2030, average growth for EU25 is 2.4% p.a.; reflecting a near doubling of GDP per capita

in EU15 and a tripling in New10.

Structure In EU15, the service sector (68.8% of GVA in 2000) grows at a faster rate than other sectors so that its share of GVA increases to

71.5% in 2030, i.e. a process of dematerialisation. Growth in the agricultural sector is weakest, so that its share of GVA falls from 8.5%

to 7.0% over the period from 2000 to 2030. Although growth is higher in the New10, there is also a bias towards the service sector so

that its share of GVA increases from 59.1% to 63.4% over this period, while the agricultural sector falls from 6.2% to 5.1%.

International trade

- within the EU Trade increases with the general level of economic activity and its growth is at least partly accelerated by the accession of the New10

states.

- outside the EU Growth in external trade is strong given the dematerialization of the EU economy, necessitating the import of goods and the reliance on

17 For the purposes of the Alternative Scenarios, descriptions of the components of Values and Policy can be given since they are notional and can be given a coherence and

generalism which does not exist currently or consequently for the Baseline Scenario. Such descriptions are critical for the Alternative Scenarios since they ultimately

characterise those while the Baseline derives from observation of pertaining conditions.

Appendix 1

DRIVER BASELINE

imported energy sources, e.g. liquefied natural gas.

Regional

differentiation

The New10 grows faster than the EU15 (3.5% p.a. compared to 2.3%) but their share of EU GDP grows only from 4.4% to 6% over the

period 2000-2030 due to the absolute predominance of EU15.

SECTORS

Agriculture to 2020

in EU15 and New8

(i.e. New10

excluding Malta

and Cyprus)

There is relative stability in the overall arable area but that dedicated to oilseeds and pulses increases (but they still only constitute 6%

of the total area) at the expense of fodder (due to reduced beef and cow herds), cereals (due to reduced Common Agricultural Policy

support) and “other” arable crops. Nevertheless, fodder (42% of total arable area) and cereals (31%) still dominate areas covered by

other crops.

There are significant increases in crop yields, particularly in New8 where yield improvements are at least 50% higher than in EU15.

This is achieved through substantially increased use of N, P and K fertilisers in the New8 (up 35%, 52% and 41% respectively);

elsewhere their use remains relatively stable. However, application rates still remain higher in the EU15.

Livestock demand shifts towards poultry and away from beef, with pig meat increasing only slightly. Sheep and goat meat remain

marginal. These developments reflect dietary preferences for poultry, pork, vegetables and fish, at the expense of beef, potatoes and

cereals. Consumption of pre-prepared and organic food grows rapidly.

Milk yield per cow increases by 25% while the dairy herd decreases by 20% by 2020 compared to 2001.

Energy Total energy demands increase steadily, reaching 19% over 2000 demands by 2030, although GDP doubles over the same period. This

reduction in energy intensity (per unit GDP) is primarily due to a dramatic decoupling, particularly in the New10, with an increasing

service sector share of the economy, at the expense of more energy-intensive industrial sector activities and efficiency gains from

investment.

Final electricity demand also decouples from GDP, particularly in the New10. However, as the main energy carrier for both services

and households, demand grows at an average rate of 1.7% p.a. (equivalent to more than 50% growth over the 30 year period to 2030).

Technological change in electricity generation includes “technological learning” in less damaging technologies (combined heat and

power, CHP, combined cycle gas turbines and fuel cells) and benefits from ‘net’ learning effects in wind, hydroelectric and solar

sources. The use of renewable sources increases but pre-enlargement indicative targets for renewables and CHP are not met by the

EU25 as a whole.

Use of domestic energy resources decreases, substituting with imported sources, particularly gas and coal, imports of which more than

double in the period from 2000 to 2030. High and volatile oil prices, especially in light of growing demand from China/India and

geopolitical uncertainty in Middle East/former USSR, threaten growth prospects by the end of the period.

Fisheries to 2020 Demand continues to rise with increasing population and incomes, and the development of dietary preferences. However, this trend is

most pronounced in the New8, where current consumption levels are lower than in other Member States. Increased effort is thus

stimulated but further regulated and any subsidies of over-capacity are withdrawn. However, effort continues in excess of sustainable

levels, e.g. through “fishing down the food chain”, and overall catch declines as stocks continue to reduce so that there is no net growth

in capture fisheries. Instead, increased demand is met through imports and aquaculture, which grows by 2.1% p.a. in the EU15 over the

period 1997 to 2020.

Appendix 1

DRIVER BASELINE

Household

consumption

Household consumption increases with the growth in wealth and household numbers, and patterns of consumption reflect developing

dietary preferences and other demands such as for increased personal mobility and foreign travel for tourism. This increase is

associated with increased solid waste streams (due to packaging, enhanced acquisition of goods and more frequent replacement of

goods) and water usage. (Note: Implications of the growth in consumption and in the number of households for agriculture, fisheries,

tourism and transport are dealt with under those sectoral headings.) Changes in consumption levels are most marked in the New10

where household expenditure per capita is currently much lower than in the EU15 although municipal waste generation increases here

by only 10%, compared to 25% in the EU15 in the period to 2020. [EEA, 2005a, p.32]

Industry Although its share of GVA declines over the 30 years to 2030, the absolute GVA attributable to the industrial sector increases by around

2.5% p.a. during this period. The trends apparent in the decades up to 2000 continue up to 2030 with the emphasis on growth in

technologically innovative and brand-driven industries, e.g. pharmaceuticals, aircraft and aerospace, motor vehicle manufacturing.

Restructuring towards higher value-added, less material-intensive sectors continues with growth most notable in the following areas:

engineering (e.g. industrial engines and turbines), non-ferrous metals (e.g. production of intermediate goods with aluminium and silicon

for use in the electronic and electrical industries) and chemicals (e.g. petro-chemicals and pharmaceuticals).

Tourism to 2020 Europe remains the primary destination for international tourism although its share of the global market declines as growth is below the

global average. Tourist arrivals increase from 393.4m in 2000 to 717.0m (82.3% growth), predominantly due to a 74.3% growth in

intra-European visits but with a 145.0% growth in long-haul visits [WTO, 2000]. The latter growth is fuelled by increasing median

global incomes and relatively low travel costs, i.e. not reflecting external costs. The intra-European trend is consistent with the growth

in wealth, historical preferences for consumption in this sector and income distribution continuing as is or broadening. The greatest

growth in terms of number of visitors is in central and eastern Europe but other areas witness at least a 50% growth in visitor numbers.

Activity at European coastal destinations reflects these trends.

Transport

There are no breakthroughs in infrastructure or mobility modes, i.e. no major alternatives to current liquid-fuel based vehicles penetrate

the market.

- terrestrial

The position for the EU25 is strongly dominated by the EU15, which accounts for some 80-90% of the activity in this sector. There is a

moderate decoupling of transport activity from economic growth so that freight transport activity increases by less than the economic

growth rate, just over 80% between 2000 and 2030. Decoupling is more pronounced in passenger transport due to saturation effects, e.g.

demand limits, road congestion, but passenger distance travelled in private transport increases by just over 50% in this period. Targets

set within the Biofuels Directive not met.

- maritime Activity rises in line with the growth in international trade and particularly trade outside the EU.

- air Air transport’s share of total passenger transport increases from 5.4% in 2000 to 10.8% in 2030, making it the fastest growing means of

transport in this period.

Urban/coastal

development

The current planning regime continues so that pressures from economic growth and preferences result in new development, particularly

in “hot spots” of tourist, port and commercial activity, and in favoured residential locations.

Coastal defences are increased in the face of sea level rise and storm surges but these are prioritised in areas with high value

infrastructure. In other cases, managed realignment is adopted.

Appendix 1

DRIVER NATIONAL ENTERPRISE

VALUES AND POLICY

Social/political

values

Social values are individualistic and deeply entrenched. Personal tastes aim for higher personal consumption and economic freedom

(including lower taxes), but with a strong commitment to national cultural characteristics. Market values are dominant, but limited

where perceived to be at odds with national interests, typified by the adoption of more protectionist economic and trade policies. There

is little collective concern about social equity, or protection of the environment other than where it meets people’s recreational needs.

Declining equity both within and between states produces tension and social exclusion.

Role of the state As European social values become more parochial and states block further transfers of sovereignty, the external retreat of the state

slows or even reverses. However, internal state retreat continues reflecting the continuing popularity of consumerist, market-led values

and promoting the principle of individual responsibility and market liberalism. Consequently, the bulk of social service provision is

undertaken by the market. Political and cultural institutions are strengthened to buttress national autonomy in a more fragmented world.

Policy level The transfer of sovereignty to global and European institutions is resisted and government at the national level continues to play an

important role. More policy decisions are taken at a national and sub-national level, with little co-coordinated integration of European

policies, stalled enlargement, or even possible break up of the EU, and the disintegration of international co-operation. The role of the

European Central Bank collapses with the Euro due to fears about the loss of economic and political sovereignty. The integrity of the

single market begins to break down as Member States erect barriers to trade to protect their national economies. The liberalisation of

global trade begins to slow as disputes between the main regional trading blocs sharpen. The politically weak WTO fails to stem a

growing tide of protectionism. Where there are comparative advantages, multilateral trade arrangements between states proceed but

there is little co-coordinated integration of European policies.

Policy style Economic and political power is consolidated in traditionally strong interest groups dominated by business groups (industrial

organisations, professional bodies, and trade associations). A ‘top-down’ policy-style leaves little room for local democracy and more

open policy processes. Reform of government is less marked in a generally more ‘statist’ approach combined with a strong ‘enterprise’

ideology informing policy decisions. Typical policy instruments are national legislation, setting national standards, and centralised

policy guidance, with market-based measures used where possible. These instruments have the advantage of consistent implementation

and enforcement, but the disadvantage of a lack of supranational coordination.

Environmental policy

- generally Environmental policy measures are aimed at the enhancement of national environment, but are rarely introduced where they are

perceived to impede economic development or to restrict personal freedoms. Typically, measures address issues such as air and water

quality where this is important for human health or leisure activities, e.g. bathing water quality. There is little concern about regional

(e.g. European) or global environmental issues.

- marine States seek to maximise the extent of their own territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zones. Marine policy is aimed at exploiting

the economic benefits from these waters, whilst also protecting non-economic national interests. Arrangements for shared competence

in marine management are only entered into where states perceive direct benefits to themselves.

Appendix 1

DEMOGRAPHY

Population size Numbers increase slowly as there is little inward migration and birth-rates are relatively low.

Geographical

distribution

In response to the variations in development across regions (see below), the domestic population tends to be more mobile, migrating to

the growth “hot spots” within countries.

Age distribution Relatively low birth rates magnify the proportion of the population in higher age ranges, although this is to some extent balanced by

lower social health provision diminishing longevity.

Household numbers Average household size is stable due to medium economic growth and low social provision. Consequently, the rate of household

formation is slower than in the Baseline scenario.

ECONOMY

Growth Growth is a policy priority but falls below the long-run average for the EU due to protectionist policies at the EU and Member State

levels, which ultimately harms export-oriented sectors. However, there is relatively fast growth in sectors focussed on meeting internal

demand.

Generally, little state intervention is made except in protecting key industries, such as utilities, banks and defence, on the basis of

security of supply. State regulatory protection is also seen where external firms are at a natural advantage because of their low factor

costs, e.g. agriculture.

Structure Sectors with a large proportion of exports are encouraged but the resistance to imports leads to retaliation by other countries so that

exports are harmed. Thus, sectors operating in global markets (banking and finance, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, metals, cars, and

electronics) face slower growth rates. Current declines in the relative proportion of economic activity in industry and agriculture are

halted by less of a shift to the service sector.

International trade

- within the EU

Somewhat diminished as Member States seek to meet demand locally. However, firms are incentivised to trade with firms in another

Member State before those outside the EU because of protectionist measures implemented by Member States.

- outside the EU Extra-EU trade is diminished because of protectionist measures, as described above.

Regional

differentiation

There are considerable variations in economic development across regions with already highly developed areas attracting more

investment (e.g. south-east England), although this phenomenon is tempered by the slower growth rates in sectors dependent on

international markets. Regions dependent on international transport links (airports and shipping) face lower growth prospects.

Regional economic policies are decided at or below the Member State level. There is limited cooperation in policy-making across these

boundaries (e.g. Scandinavia, Baltic states).

SECTORS

Agriculture Policy is directed towards maximising high-quality domestic production that can be marketed at modest prices, e.g. through subsidies.

Support is not conditional on environmental objectives. Similarly, retailers focus only on the requirement for high-quality, minimum

price food.

There is more intensive exploitation of agricultural resources involving relatively high inputs of fertilisers and pesticides but with

variable levels of adoption of new technologies, e.g. use of genetically-modified organisms, dependent on social preferences. There is

Appendix 1

also greater diversification of output to meet local demands, although limited by continued consumer demand for exotic crops and out-

of-season produce. The relatively high demand for animal protein is predominantly met from national production.

Energy There is a tendency to preserve existing energy sources, indigenous coal, gas and nuclear power by extending the life of existing plant.

This leads to relatively higher energy prices but pursuit of stringent energy efficiency measures is hampered by lack of available capital

and the low priority of environmental investment. In response, there is a strong move towards diversifying supply internally, including

development of further nuclear capacity, renewable sources and combined heat and power.

Since the construction sector focuses on maintenance and conversion of existing buildings in urban areas, there is less impetus towards

higher technology, more energy efficient buildings.

Fisheries There is an abandonment of the Common Fisheries Policy with Member States establishing and enforcing territorial fishing limits.

While there is improved management of stocks within these limits, as they are viewed as national/local resources, outside them there is

more pressure on stocks.

Household

consumption

Consumption increases are constrained by lower economic growth and restricted choice of goods and services arising from trade

barriers. The relative stability of household numbers limits the growth in the demand for water but this is balanced by poor supply-side

management because of lack of infrastructure investment. Poor management is also manifested in low investment in sewage treatment.

Industry The relative decline in manufacturing activity ceases as national self-reliance becomes a key policy objective.

Tourism The relatively modest growth in wealth and lack of growth in the proportion of budget allocated to this expenditure, due to increased

preferences for local tourism, limit foreign travel and thus incentives for tourism development, including in the coastal zone. Although

there is more domestically/regionally based vacationing the inherent limitation on demand limits coastal development from this source.

The “open skies” policy is abandoned, with attendant increases in the price of air travel.

Transport

- terrestrial

There is continuing reliance on private transport with little additional provision for public transport. However, moderate economic

growth limits the growth of car ownership and frequency of replacement (so that average age of the fleet increases and new

technologies are not so rapidly adopted).

- maritime

Reductions in international trade, at least in imported goods, and the tendency for more locally based tourism reduce shipping and

maritime activity.

Urban/coastal

development

Housing development in the coastal zone occurs but is limited by the generally low rate of investment in new housing.

Coastal defence aims to protect virtually all assets, with only limited withdrawal from formerly protected areas, since the benefits of

protection are increased by the need to preserve local resources.

Appendix 1

DRIVER LOCAL RESPONSIBILITY

VALUES AND POLICY

Social/political

values

The dominant value system is communitarian in nature, which encourages co-operative self-reliance and regional development. People

choose to express their cultural identities and social interests through their local communities, at the city and regional level. Decisions

are made on the basis of needs as perceived locally, which, in general, results in a strong emphasis on equity, social inclusion and

democratic values. Thus, the conservation of local resources and the protection of the local natural environment are, generally, strong

political objectives. Political systems are transparent, participatory and inclusive. There tend to be high levels of public provision, at a

local level, for health, education and social services, funded through high levels of local taxation on individuals and businesses.

Role of the state There is significant internal state retreat in the sense that state-held functions are progressively shifted down to the local level through

devolution and the enhancement of local or regional authority power. There is, however, little role for the private sector in public

service delivery in this scenario. Many service delivery functions are returned to local authorities, which are seen to be closer in

political terms to citizens and hence more accountable. Local government therefore replaces national and supra-national governance.

Policy level National governments and the EU are left to perform residual functions that cannot be better attained at the sub-national level. Cultural

and political variations across the EU lead to a stronger regional flavour in policy making, with diverse socio-economic outcomes. The

EU develops as a ‘Europe of Regions’. As regions strive for more local economic autonomy, the euro-zone expands in some areas, but

contracts in others, with individual regions electing to join or withdraw. Dual currencies emerge. Enlargement of the EU becomes less

relevant as the single market atrophies and regional trade decreases. International cooperation is redefined to serve the goal of securing

local and regional economic and political autonomy. This is mainly through coalitions with other city/regions resembling political

arrangements between mercantilist city-states.

Policy style Markets are subject to social regulation to ensure more equally distributed opportunities and a high quality local environment, through

the promotion of economic activities that are small-scale and regional in scope. Local communities are strengthened to ensure

participative and transparent governance. Traditional regulation is replaced by a more diffuse structure of governance involving

stakeholders throughout society, steered by local authorities. The unpopularity of supranational action means that the overall pattern of

policy objectives is much more heterogeneous, and the range of policy instruments more diverse. Typically, policy instruments consist

of local action plans, with very effective implementation through local groups. There is the corresponding disadvantage of

fragmentation of policy above the local level.

- generally Environmental protection is a high priority policy goal, and one which influences other policy sectors. The community focus means

that there is a high degree of protection of the local environment, with conservation of community resources and locally important

wildlife and habitats. Differences between communities mean that policies and outcomes are diverse, reflecting local needs and

priorities. Regional and global environmental problems receive less attention than local issues.

- marine Marine policy is based upon the sustainability, rather than exploitation, of local resources, with a high degree of protection for locally

important marine habitats and species. However, marine policy is fragmented as local communities are concerned with local waters and

circumstances, with a significant decline in shared competence.

Appendix 1

Many communities have no coastline and so, whilst having significant effects upon the marine environment, have less immediate

concerns about it, which may result in the development of little or no marine policy within those communities.

DEMOGRAPHY

Population size Stable.

Geographical

distribution

There is general migration away from larger cities and a corresponding growth of small and medium-sized towns more suited to

smaller-scale local development. Distinction between town and countryside preserved. Less migration across borders.

Age distribution Relatively low birth rates and increased public health provision, which increases longevity, magnify the proportion of the population in

higher age ranges.

Household numbers The trend towards smaller households is reversed due to lower growth in household incomes, strong planning controls on new housing

and the revival of more collective social values. Household numbers decline slightly and urbanisation stops.

ECONOMY

Growth Slow relative to the long-term average, exacerbated by a relatively high tax take from individuals and businesses. Smaller scale

production of goods and services is encouraged.

Structure Small/medium-sized enterprises in manufacturing, cooperatives and locally-based financial and other services prosper. The proportion

of economic activity due to agriculture stabilises.

International trade

- within the EU

International trade even less important than in the National Enterprise scenario, but as in that case there is some presumption in favour

of firms in other Member States in preference to trade outside the EU.

- outside the EU See above, growth is constrained compared to the Baseline Scenario.

Regional

differentiation

Growth is more evenly spread across the regions with current areas of high development ceasing to be so predominant. There is greater

emphasis on regional autonomy and local economic growth as means of achieving social and environmental benefits.

SECTORS

Agriculture The main goal of policy is to support local self-sufficiency and perceived traditional farming practices. Research and technical support

are used to increase the productivity of low-input farming systems. Large-scale farming is not encouraged.

Agriculture is highly subsidised to protect food security and local landscapes, and to reduce environmental impacts.

Similar to the National Enterprise scenario, there is diversification of output to meet local demands, but in contrast to that scenario

consumer demands for exotic crops, out-of-season produce and animal protein decline. This reduces food transportation and the

production of livestock within the EU. However, the reduction in diversified food sources leads to occasional localised shortages of

certain foodstuffs due to crop failure, thus restricting consumer choice at these times.

There is rapid growth in organic and low-input farming; with farm sizes and the use of fertilisers and pesticides declining. Genetically

modified organisms are banned. The shift to extensive practices makes it necessary for more land to come into agricultural use, but this

is done while taking account of environmental concerns.

Energy The focus is on exploitation of local energy sources. A wide range of renewable energy technologies is exploited, supported by the

willingness to invest in technologies with a relatively low rate of return. Local coal sources are exploited but with high standards of

Appendix 1

environmental control. Locally-based combined heat and power flourishes.

In the construction sector, a conservationist ethic pervades and low level of investment means traditional housing survives. Therefore,

as in the case of National Enterprise, there is less impetus towards higher technology, more energy efficient buildings.

Higher energy prices and social values emphasising self-reliance and conservation spur energy efficiency measures by consumers.

However, the increased reliance on local energy sources and lack of diversification increases the risk of interrupted supply.

Fisheries There is a retreat from the Common Fisheries Policy with Member States exercising local territorial fishing limits and strong

management efforts in respect of these local stocks. Given that fishing effort is focussed on local resources, overall fishing effort is

restrained. As in the case of agricultural produce, the reliance on local resources means that market supply (in this case of captured

fish) may occasionally be restricted.

Household

consumption

Consumption is heavily constrained compared to the Baseline due to the much slower economic growth and relatively restricted trade.

Personal values also deter unnecessary consumption, which is perceived as excessive or extravagant. Water demand falls through

adoption of conservation technologies and decline in household numbers.

Industry Rates of investment and innovation are relatively low. Small and medium-sized enterprises and small-scale sustainable production are

favoured. Innovative applications of information technology and industrial biotechnology enable smaller-scale production to be

economic. There is a stress on eco-efficiency, quality and durability in consumer goods.

Lower consumption of water and pollution per unit output arise through smaller scale production. However, overall levels of industrial

production rise to substitute for imports.

Tourism The relatively modest growth in wealth and the shift towards more pro-environmental values limit foreign travel and motivate the

development of more environmentally sensitive forms of recreation and tourism. Although there is more domestically/regionally based

vacationing these forces severely limit the demand for coastal development from this source, in conjunction with the more general

planning restrictions on coastal development (see below).

Transport

- terrestrial

Planning favours mixed residential and commercial development and decentralisation. Thus, there is less transport demand by

individuals and businesses (e.g. less food miles). Transport costs rise sharply due to high energy prices and policies which internalise

environmental costs. Passenger transport is still dominated by private cars but public road and rail transport structures are extended.

Car sharing and low emissions technologies are widely adopted.

- maritime Growth is constrained by the major slowdown in the growth of international trade.

- air As for maritime transport.

Urban/coastal

development

Tight planning control over the countryside and the need to preserve land for agriculture lead to denser urban development. Growth is

concentrated within existing towns and smaller cities. Government policy encourages the conversion of urban land to natural

vegetation.

Planning controls reflect pro-environmental preferences so that there is a deliberate aim to reduce coastal zone development.

Developed areas and agricultural land are protected by publicly funded sea defences. However, constraints on investment mean the

quality of sea defence structures is relatively poor. “Managed realignment” is an increasingly important policy option.

Appendix 1

DRIVER WORLD MARKETS

VALUES AND POLICY

Social/political

values

Trade becomes increasingly globalised. Libertarian and materialist-consumerist social values are predominant, operating within

interdependent and globalised governance systems such as the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and multinational corporations. Global

societal values are primarily techno-centric. Migration increases rapidly in order to meet demand for labour. The emphasis is on pursuing

economic growth.

Role of the state The market, as opposed to state institutions, is presumed to best fulfil these values and achieve goals. There is a continued reshaping of

governance, with the retreat of the nation state. The internal and external boundaries of the state retreat. The internal dimensions of the state

shrink as there is a declining role for government in economic management and in the provision of healthcare, education and other social

services. Pressure grows to reduce taxes, and more public services are privatised or privately managed. The state performs residual

functions such as regulation, and law & order. States also lose external powers as their economies become increasingly integrated and

interdependent with the global economy. Significantly, as multinational firms steadily achieve greater power, states find they are

increasingly unable to control the economic activities within their own territories. Corporate governance, and therefore responsibility to

shareholders, rapidly replaces government.

Policy level Policy is determined primarily at the regional trading bloc (including EU) and international level (primarily through the WTO), in order to

move towards completion of the Single European Market in Europe, and to facilitate rapid increases in free trade at the global level. Beyond

the EU, disputes with other large, regional trading blocs such as North American Free Trade Agreement are arbitrated by a powerful W TO.

Those conflicts which do arise between free trade and environmental protection are ruled in favour of the former. What social and

environmental governance exists is increasingly achieved through international legal frameworks establishing minimum standards, and

implemented using market-based approaches. The Euro is adopted by all of the EU25 and newly acceding states, to stimulate trade and

competition in Europe. Political and social integration are sacrificed in order to further the overriding goal of maximising economic growth

by extending the geographical scope of the single market into new areas. Therefore, enlargement of the EU 25 proceeds rapidly.

Policy style Markets are the subject of light regulation, concerned primarily with ensuring fair and open competition. There is a stress on self-regulation,

and the role of information and accountability in the market, based upon corporate reporting. This includes greater transparency and a

proliferation of private-sector audit and verification services. Regional trading blocs also have a growing role, with their primary goal to

attract inward investment. EU social and economic policy becomes increasingly harmonised in order to create a level playing field for

multinational businesses to compete. Typical policy instruments comprise voluntary agreements, with market based instruments used, where

possible, to achieve social policy objectives. The use of regulation diminishes where it is regarded as a constraint upon growth and

innovation.

- generally There is a shift in the role of environmental policy so that it acts to correct and support the needs of the market. Policies are based on the

assumption that nature is largely resilient to human stress and are aligned to meeting competitiveness goals. Policy addresses the economic

impacts of environmental issues, such as health, and nature conservation is approached from the perspective of its value as a leisure activity.

National environmental protection requirements which exceed international norms are regarded as a barrier to free trade and are penalised.

Appendix 1

- marine Marine resources are allocated on the basis of economic value. The concepts of territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zones diminish as

the seabed and marine waters become commoditised. Marine policy is aimed at the efficient allocation of these resources, and environmental

protection is generally limited to areas where the highest value use is leisure or otherwise such that the value of the asset is enhanced.

DEMOGRAPHY

Population size Overall slow growth but population pressure is increased by the immigration necessary to meet growing labour demands.

Geographical

distribution

With the immigration from outside the EU and labour mobility within necessary to meet specific demands in particular areas as the growth

rate is uneven across the EU.

Age distribution The growth in population tends to reduce the proportion of older people relative to other scenarios.

Household numbers High incomes and individualist values reinforce the existing trend towards smaller households. Rising demand for housing increases urban

land use, especially around larger towns and cities.

ECONOMY

Growth Characterised by liberalised national and international markets, dismantling of trade barriers and the retreat of the state, leaving a greater role

for the private sector. Income distribution widens more than in any other scenario. Growth is rapid by historical standards.

Structure Structural change is rapid, with the service sector dominating other areas. Particular growth notable in financial services, healthcare,

education, leisure and transport-related services. Mining, manufacturing and agriculture are all in decline.

International trade

- within the EU Substantial, much of a country’s goods and services are produced for export.

- outside the EU Global markets (including China, Latin America and other currently emerging markets) are important for supplying EU consumer needs and

receiving EU exports, but in this latter respect predominantly of services and knowledge.

Regional

differentiation

Benefits of rapid growth are widely shared through “spill over” effects, although sectoral changes (above) will have differential impacts, e.g.

areas reliant on manufacturing need to adapt while those specialising in financial and knowledge-based services experience accelerated

growth. Areas close to airports and ports benefit from the growing volume of trade.

SECTORS

Agriculture Policy is less interventionist, with the Common Agricultural Policy abandoned and no other protection measures put in its place. Lower food

prices (set in internationally competitive markets) prompt the search for improved productivity through intensification but food imports rise.

More processed food is consumed and more is eaten outside the home, thus supporting value-added processes and services within the EU.

Agriculture becomes increasingly concentrated, industrialised and global in scope. Use of genetically modified organisms becomes more

widespread, constrained by human health rather than environmental concerns, and relatively high input levels are also needed to sustain

higher productivity.

Substantial tracts of inefficiently productive agricultural land are converted to recreational use or for development or are simply abandoned.

Energy Energy markets are dominated by fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, although exploitation of alternatives begins.

Demand for electricity and transportation fuels continues to grow but energy prices do not increase dramatically. There is little concern for

energy efficiency but the simplest energy saving opportunities are implemented. In these conditions and with high discount rates, renewable

and nuclear energy sources are not attractive.

Appendix 1

Levels of energy efficiency in buildings are improved by the increased propensities to construct new-build on “greenfield” sites and to scrap

old buildings in favour of new construction on the same site (cf. renovation and refurbishment in certain other scenarios).

Fisheries With market driven exploitation of the resource overriding the CFP to some extent, lack of management leads to dwindling natural stocks.

Demand is predominantly met by imports and aquaculture, although this does not match previous extraction yields.

Household

consumption

The position is highly comparable to that in the Baseline, with increases supported by strong economic growth and trading links, and the

striving for satisfaction of personal demands. Water demand increases significantly due to economic growth, higher living standards, small

household sizes, development of more distributed communities and minimal environmental concern. Widespread metering is adopted and

prices are high, encouraging investment in infrastructure to reduce leakage and develop new sources of supply.

Industry Rates of innovation and growth are high in many manufacturing sectors, with IT and biotechnology being the main technological drivers of

change. Others witness decline in the face of competition from newly industrialising countries (e.g. in south east Asia and the Middle East).

Small-scale, agile assembly plants linked to complex, global supply chains continue to grow. Local and regional specialisation in high

value-added industries, e.g. pharmaceuticals.

Resource extraction grows to meet energy and infrastructure construction needs.

Tourism High and widely distributed wealth supports substantial growth in tourism both within EU and other destinations. Capacity constraints and

congestion at EU destinations, and the pursuit of novelty, incentivise travel to more exotic and remote locations outside the EU, e.g. Mexico,

South-east Asia. However, Europe remains the primary destination for international tourism although overall market share declines more

than under Baseline and growth is below the overall global average. Overall tourism numbers continue to rise with Europeans taking trips

more frequently and further away from home.

Transport

- terrestrial Increased demand for passenger transport is met by investment in roads.

- maritime The increase in international trade, and in particular importing goods, is accompanied by strong growth in shipping.

- air Similar to maritime transport, but air freight experiences especially strong growth in response to consumer demands for perishable imported

goods.

Urban/coastal

development

There is high pressure for coastal zone housing given income levels and the desire for an attractive living environment.

Sea defence becomes partly a private initiative but is extensive because of the high value of assets in the coastal zone.

Appendix 1

DRIVER GLOBAL COMMUNITY

VALUES AND POLICY

Social/political

values

A broad communitarian approach encompassing internationalist values and including increased globalisation of governance systems. People

attach high value to balancing economic, social and environmental welfare, and see their personal interests as being connected to a strong

and cooperative society. In cases where conflicts arise between these objectives people may tend to prioritise social and environmental

welfare over personal welfare. People are willing to accept the relatively high levels of taxation which result. The prevailing ethos in the

more closely co-coordinated public and private sectors is technocratic and corporatist.

Role of the state Internal state retreat continues but at a greatly reduced rate as society demands that important functions (e.g. health and education) remain in

the public sector. The state retains a broader regulatory role in order to reflect the values of the global community and to ensure that the

public interest is not sacrificed in the pursuit of private profit. Accountability at all levels, including corporate, is a key objective of the state.

Policy level Governance structures become more trans-national; policy is coordinated at the EU and international level, but implemented at the local

level. The EU adopts a more centralised structure with a directly elected executive, a powerful Parliament, and overseen by a powerful

European Court. The main task of national governments is to implement standards agreed at the EU and global levels. There is less scope

for regional autonomy in this scenario, which follows the ‘One Europe’ model of harmonised standards across international boundaries.

European tax affairs become progressively communitised. The ‘Eurozone’ expands, further stimulating trade and competition in Europe.

Enlargement proceeds much more slowly than under the World Markets scenario partly because of the perceived cost of bringing new

entrants up to existing social and environmental standards. International trade is strong but a powerful, green WTO tends to settle disputes in

favour of higher environmental quality.

Policy style The scope for exercising national powers becomes limited with greater international cooperation resulting in legally binding standards and

commitments. Global institutions seek to tackle social inequality through the adoption of mechanisms such as technology transfer,

international aid and debt relief. Consultation with civil society stakeholders, industry and non-governmental organisations becomes a more

routine process at all decision-making levels, resulting in open but complex structures of governance and accountability. Typically, policy

measures comprise a mixture of market-based, regulatory, and other instruments. International and EU measures are more pervasive, setting

legally binding standards. The policy style is more flexible, as a result of the sometimes conflicting policy objectives.

- generally The EU adopts strong process and product standards across Europe, and adopts an aggressive policy of greening traditionally non-

environmental policy sectors, such as agriculture and energy, which includes the management of demand of resources (including water).

Policies shift from a focus upon point source pollution to diffuse sources, as well as shared responsibility across the full length of the

consumption chain, from design to disposal. As there is an explicit recognition that environmental concerns should have priority over those

of completing the Single Market, Member States are allowed to set higher environmental standards than the norm even if they constitute a

barrier to trade. There is a strong emphasis upon finding global solutions to what are increasingly perceived to be globally interconnected

(i.e. systemic) problems, even though there is a recognition that everybody will not benefit equally. Global institutions address

environmental problems through the adoption of international regulation.

- marine There is a system of international management of marine waters, which are treated as a ‘Global Commons’. International institutions

Appendix 1

oversee the implementation of this, which is undertaken by local, national and regional bodies. Utilisation of marine resources is based upon

sustainability.

DEMOGRAPHY

Population size Environmental concerns lower fertility rates but population pressure is increased by the immigration necessary to meet growing labour

demands, as in the World Markets scenario.

Geographical

distribution

The regeneration of urban areas (see below) is associated with a relatively static distribution of the population compared to other scenarios.

Age distribution See above, but perhaps comparable to Local Responsibility, i.e. relatively low birth rates magnify the proportion of the population in higher

age ranges.

Household numbers Rising incomes tend to reduce average household size but this pressure is balanced by the strengthening of community values. Therefore,

household size declines relatively slowly and household numbers grow at historic rates.

ECONOMY

Growth Growth is constrained by high levels of taxation and the need for balancing off economic growth against social and environmental objectives

in public and private decision-making.

Innovation is promoted by high investment in research and technology, and private-public partnerships.

International cooperation and regulation reduces tensions between social/environmental objectives and competitiveness.

Structure Growth in the role of services at the expense of manufacturing and agriculture but to a lesser extent than in the Baseline scenario as more

industrial and agricultural production is retained closer to the place of consumption, reflecting preferences for a reduced consumption

“footprint”.

Economies increasingly export-oriented with mobile, highly skilled labour forces. In most markets competitiveness is achieved through

quality and value-added differentiation (e.g. branding).

International trade

- within the EU

The scenario involves exports (either in value terms or as %GDP) lying between those in the National Enterprise and World Markets

scenarios. Thus, there is a substantial level of activity, as might be expected in an internationally integrated scenario, only somewhat less

than the World Markets scenario.

- outside the EU This should follow the above trend for intra-EU trade.

Regional

differentiation

Development is evenly distributed through planning controls and transfer payments. Development is targeted towards achieving a skilled

work force, a “pleasant” living environment, and infrastructure that encourages sustainable development. However, regions dependent on

traditional forms of manufacturing and agriculture experience a transition towards other specialisms.

SECTORS

Agriculture The aim of policy is to balance high yields with low environmental impact, i.e. through reduced use of fertilisers and pesticides. Support

payments are tied to sustainable management of rural landscapes, which involves some agricultural land being “re-naturalised” but this land

loss is compensated by increases in agricultural productivity. Consumer demands for high environmental, ethical and animal welfare

Appendix 1

standards are acted on throughout the supply chain. These trends result in higher food prices than in the Baseline.

Despite the price implications, consumers seek high quality, nutritious food supplied mainly by major brands and retail chains. This is in

contrast to Local Responsibility where local food supply is important. Meat consumption and large-scale livestock farming decline.

Approaches such as integrated crop management are adopted resulting in lower pesticide and fertiliser inputs. Genetically modified

organisms are gradually introduced but subject to tight environmental and regulatory controls.

Energy Natural gas is the dominant energy source up to 2010 but renewable energy gains a large market share thereafter. Notably, the market for

solar energy dominates through economies of scale force down costs. Encouraged by regulatory incentives, energy suppliers provide

integrated services, enhancing the take-up of energy efficient measures. The price of energy is relatively high because of investment and

environmental controls. Hydrogen becomes a significant energy carrier beyond 2020 with major investment in its production, storage and

distribution.

Rapid replacement of old and inefficient buildings and infrastructure, concentrated in urban centres and brown field sites. New energy

efficient buildings are engineered products with relatively short lives.

Government policy encourages energy efficiency investments in old stock.

Fisheries The sector is dominated by public policy: the CFP is retained but developed to manage stocks on an international basis. In certain cases, this

entails the closure of fisheries, resulting in short to medium-term loss of employment and, potentially, loss of know-how. Government-

funded schemes are introduced to alleviate the effects of fisheries closures.

Household

consumption

The move towards less consumerist values and relatively high levels of taxation have a moderating influence on growth in consumption but

there remains pressure for growth from increases in personal wealth. Demand-side management and adoption of clean technology reduce

water demand. Waste is vastly reduced.

Industry Manufacturing is transformed by high investment and the drive towards a low input, “small footprint” economy. Highest growth in sectors

providing eco-efficient goods and services. Presumably given an assumption that individual preferences will tend this way. This spurs

investment in eco-efficient firms and away from heavily polluting firms. Returns to scale are replaced by returns to scope and specialisation.

Quality of water outputs is improved due to shift to cleaner production in industry.

Tourism There is a reduction in international arrivals, but growth in domestic tourism, and broad diversification of the tourism/recreation sector

involving the growth of low impact sustainable eco-tourism which gains an increasing proportion of the international tourism market.

Environmentally sensitive locations are perceived to be unattractive as a result in the shift towards pro-environmental values.

Transport

- terrestrial

Modernisation and restructuring of freight and passenger transport is started with the target of an increased proportion of public road and rail

transport. Although eco-efficient cars reduce emissions, tension between demand for personal mobility and environmental quality persists.

New roads and rail infrastructure developed but with high priority to minimising environmental impact. Consequently, cost of transport rises

substantially.

- maritime The level of trade indicated above is associated with growth in this sector.

- air New airport infrastructure developed but, again, with high priority to minimising environmental impact so that cost of transport rises

substantially. As for maritime transport, the level of activity is nevertheless, substantial.

Appendix 1

Urbanisation/

coastal

development

Demand for development in coastal areas is high (where environmental impact is considered to be sustainable), but development is tightly

controlled by planning controls, especially in vulnerable areas. Broad ranging ICZM plans are agreed at an international level where inter-

state co-operation along coastal areas is required.

Diverse regional outcomes with developed areas/high value assets protected (including using experimental technologies to generate

alternative energy sources), in the context of cross-border strategic programmes, e.g. cooperation in the siting of port developments. Other

areas are subject to managed realignment.

Appendix 2

NARRATIVE SCENARIO OUTCOMES

BASELINE 42

NATIONAL ENTERPRISE 44

LOCAL RESPONSIBILITY 46

WORLD MARKETS 48

GLOBAL COMMUNITY 50

Appendix 2

DRIVER SECTOR BASELINE

Agriculture to 2020 Fertilisers: Crop yields and fertiliser usage have decoupled significantly since the 1980s. Consequently, the increase in agricultural output

does not necessarily lead to a proportional increase in fertiliser usage.

The use of mineral fertilisers remains relatively stable in the EU15 over the period to 2020. In the New8, however, usage increases for

N/P/K by 35%/52%/41%. Nevertheless, the application rates are significantly lower in the New8 than EU15 (13% for N at 64.5 kg/ha/10%

for P at 20.5 kg/ha/23% for K at 21 kg/ha). Usage is reflected in nutrient balances. Surpluses in EU15 reduce (by 12%/25%/16% for N:P:K

respectively) due to relatively stable application rates and increase in exports through harvested material. However, increased usage of

fertilisers in New8 increases surpluses (by 63%/84%/27% for N/P/K respectively). Overall, surpluses reduce moderately (6%/8%:12%).

[EEA, 2005a, p.31]18

Pesticides: Historically, the intensity of pesticide usage has declined as a result of public concern, legislation, economic pressures and

changes in active ingredients that have reduced application rates. During the late 1990s, usage may have stabilised (there are some

shortcomings in data availability). [EEA, 2003, p46] This trend continues with no further reductions in use.

Livestock: The reduction in the beef and cow herds is effectively balanced in terms of emissions by increases in poultry and pig production.

Energy Fossil fuels remain an important part of the generating mix. There is an overall increase in the exploitation of renewable energy sources

(wind, biofuels, etc.), but with geographical variation dependent on accessibility and cost competitiveness. With increased electricity

production (albeit growing at less than the rate of increase in GDP) there is thus an increase in the use of fossil fuels. However,

implementation of the Large Combustion Plant and Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control Directives reduces the absolute amount of

emissions of air pollutants from energy production.

In the EU25, production of fossil fuels declines over the period to 2030, with crude oil and natural gas production falling by 47% and 40%

respectively between 2000 and 2030. [EC, 2003, p.110] Consequently, infrastructure related to production and refining retreats both

onshore and offshore. However, part of the increasing demand for imports of natural gas is met through shipments of LNG (particularly on

the northeast Atlantic and Iberian coasts) which requires its own infrastructure in terms of specialist docking and storage facilities in the

coastal zone.

Fisheries Declining stocks and continuing regulation drive up the effort required per unit of production and thus reduce the attractiveness of the

industry. Consequently, the size of the fishing fleet continues to decline, although effort remains at unsustainable levels.

Increasing demand for fish and the lack of increase in domestic capture fisheries motivate substantial further development in aquacultural

production.

Household Water: The increase in household numbers is balanced in its effects by technological improvements (e.g. reducing water leakage and

improving treatment) and pricing changes (including metering) that stabilise usage of water. Discharges of pollutants, however, decrease as

18 Comparable trends are reported by EFMA, 2005 but with a decline in fertiliser usage in the EU15 at least up to 2015. This latter expectation is supported by TT6.

Appendix 2

DRIVER SECTOR BASELINE

regulation on sewage treatment etc. is further implemented and levels of treatment increase in excess of regulatory requirements.

Solid waste: Although relatively decoupled from the growth in wealth, municipal waste increases by approximately 25% in EU15 and 10%

in New10 by 2020 but achievement of the Landfill Directive’s targets for biodegradable municipal waste reduces landfill by 41 Mt by 2016.

[EEA, 2005a, p.32] Furthermore, technological developments in waste recovery capacity and in reuse/recycling alternatives also contribute

to a decoupling of landfill volume from waste production.

Industry Although industrial production increases over the present, regulation and technological improvement, e.g. in treatment before discharge,

decouple production from discharges to water and air, particularly in terms of heavy metal releases. These declines are driven by the

implementation of BAT (Best Available Technology) under IPPC (Integrated Pollution Prevention and Control), the implementation of the

Water Framework Directive and action on priority hazardous substances.

Tourism The growth in tourism is necessarily reflected in the immediate driver indicators, which simply represent the volume of transits. There is

little, if any, scope for decoupling this activity from the pressures on marine ecosystems, except to the extent that tourist visits to coastal

areas diminish at a faster rate than the growth in tourism overall, but there is no evidence to suggest that this will occur. Consequently,

there is a continuing growth in tourist visits to coastal areas and thus an increasing demand for activities with which tourism is associated,

e.g. beach cleaning and replenishment. Pressure on marine ecosystems is also increased by diversification of water-based activities and

more intensive recreational use, e.g. diving.

The decoupling of emissions from road transport sources observed towards the end of the 20th century continues but is balanced by the

increasing demand for this form of transport so that emissions stabilise.

Increasing maritime activity accompanied by a lack of pressure for technological change results in increasing emissions from this source.

Transport

- terrestrial

- maritime

- air While demand for air travel increases, the capacity to adopt more environmentally friendly technologies given the dynamic nature of the

design and manufacturing industries (cf. maritime) means that emissions do not grow at the same rate as air travel. Nevertheless, emissions

grow compared to present levels.

Urbanisation/ coastal

development

The continuation of the current planning regime limits “urban sprawl” into coastal areas but there is some selective pressure in locations

considered highly desirable for recreational (tourist and second home) use. Thus, overall there is a net propensity towards development in

such areas, particularly in the Mediterranean.

Defence of existing areas of development is limited but there is no motivation to construct defended reclaimed areas so that again there is

only a slight pressure on development from this source.

A further force for development is in port facilities for handling imports of energy and goods but at least some of this is dissipated through

substitution of existing facilities for dealing with primary energy production.

Appendix 2

DRIVER SECTOR NATIONAL ENTERPRISE

Agriculture As reliance on high-quality domestic crop production rises, pesticide and fertiliser use increases and yields improve. An increasing demand

for animal protein is offset by falls in exports and livestock numbers remain relatively stable as compared to the Baseline scenario. Organic

farming is minimal.

Energy Energy sources are more diverse regionally compared to the Baseline scenario due to the need to develop whatever nationally based sources

are available. This leads to greater use of renewable sources or nuclear power in some countries.. This leads to greater use of some

renewable sources and nuclear energy, rather than a growth in imported gas from Russia. The overall level of energy use is lower than in

the Baseline scenario due to lower levels of economic activity. There is less pressure for policies to reduce emissions, thus emission limit

values for fossil-fuel power stations are higher than in the Baseline scenario. These higher emissions are reduced by a greater diversity of

sources, but not offset by them.

Fisheries The Common Fisheries Policy ceases to exist and fisheries are managed nationally. For some critical stocks shared between countries,

agreements on their management still remain however. The effect on stocks varies, depending upon the attitudes of individual countries,

with some conserving what is perceived as a national resource, while others allow a drift into continued over-fishing. There is an increase

in aquaculture to meet national food needs, resulting in an increase in pollution from this source.

Household Water consumption increases are not off-set by leakage reduction measures as investment falls with decreasing economic growth.

Relatively low investment in new technologies, coupled with the decreasing impact of supra-national environmental regulation, means that

the rate of construction of secondary waste water treatment facilities falls comparative to the Baseline scenario. Waste production levels

rise at a similar rate to the Baseline scenario. Landfill reduction targets are abandoned and the investment in new waste treatment

technologies falls. Consequently where capacity exists landfill volumes rise above those in the Baseline scenario.

Industry Industrial activity increases as economies aim at becoming more self sufficient nationally and there is less reliance on imports. This alone

would result in higher emissions from industry compared to the Baseline scenario. However, in addition, industrial sources of pollution are

subject to less rigorous controls due to the repatriation of environmental policy. Thus, there is overall a decline in air and water quality,

exacerbated in the latter case by lack of investment in the water supply and treatment sector, with an increased risk of localised pollution

incidents. A further consequence is that there is less interest in tackling transboundary impacts and an increase in the 'export' of such

pollution through upstream discharges to water and long distance atmospheric deposition.

Tourism The number of incoming and departing tourists falls as relatively low rates of economic growth and increases in the cost of air travel deter

international tourism. Domestic tourism increases as a result of the re-emergence of national identity and a preference for home-grown

holidays. There is growth of traditional maritime pastimes such as fishing, yachting and sailing. Local destinations with a strong national

and cultural identity are increasingly popular which sees some pressure on coastal resorts reduced.

Overall, transport activity is reduced compared to the Baseline scenario (particularly across borders). However, the retention and

development of national industry, tourism, etc, will result in locally enhanced transport needs compared to the Baseline scenario.

Lower economic growth results in lower transport demand compared to the Baseline scenario. There is less pressure to reduce vehicle

emissions, although any reduction in emission requirements is constrained by standards adopted in export markets. This standardisation is

off-set somewhat by the impact of a vehicle fleet which is older than in the Baseline scenario, leading to emissions which are higher than the

Baseline scenario.

Transport

- terrestrial

- maritime Maritime transport is significantly reduced compared to the Baseline scenario. Far fewer goods are imported/exported. There is less

Appendix 2

DRIVER SECTOR NATIONAL ENTERPRISE

pressure to control emissions from ships due to less interest by governments in transboundary pollution. Shipping standards diverge (e.g.

hull standards for tankers), so that it is more difficult to achieve further protection against oil spills.

- air Air transport grows less than in the Baseline scenario, principally due to a decline in international tourism and increase in domestic tourism.

development

The overall amount of urbanisation of the coastal area and percentage of coastline developed remains relatively low in comparison to the

Baseline scenario as new development is limited by low rates of investment. Pressure from Port development is reduced in comparison to

the Baseline scenario as a result of the drop in international trade and the reduced need for large container vessels. There is, however, an

increase in small ports which service the domestic market with a consequent growth in the number of small craft to service such needs.

Coastal defence is a priority with high levels of public investment and maintenance. Only where costs significantly exceed benefits will

"managed retreat" be adopted.

Appendix 2

DRIVER SECTOR LOCAL RESPONSIBILITY

Agriculture Although the amount of land used for agriculture increases, fertiliser and pesticide use decreases in comparison to the Baseline scenario as

low-input farming systems are preferred. The number of organic farms rises dramatically. Falling consumer demand for animal proteins

and a contraction of export markets sees livestock numbers fall.

Energy Energy use is lower than in the Baseline scenario due to lower economic activity. There is also a focus on local energy production with a

priority on renewable sources. Thus, in conjunction with energy conservation and efficiency measures driven by community demand and

management, emissions of pollutants from the energy sector decline markedly.

Fisheries The Common Fisheries Policy is replaced by local fishing controls, although some bilateral agreements remain to address over-exploitation

of integrated fishing grounds. Management focuses on the protection of stocks and of small communities, thus reducing fishing from large

vessels and fleets. Therefore, stocks rise above the Baseline scenario levels. There is an increase in aquaculture in some areas for local

consumption but accompanied by an effort to minimise environmental impacts.

Household Water consumption falls in real terms as personal values deter unnecessary consumption and lower household numbers and the adoption of

eco-efficiency measures reduce demand. The growth of low-technology, small-scale water treatment facilities (e.g. reed bed filtration)

serving local communities sees the number of secondary waste water treatment facilities rise at the same rate as the Baseline scenario

although the limited capacity of such facilities may see environmental quality problems in areas of high demand. The amount of waste

going to landfill is reduced significantly as a result of waste reduction and recycling initiatives at the local level. An increase in local waste

treatment and disposal facilities such as composting and small-scale incineration sees a further reduction in the amount of waste going to

landfill.

Industry To achieve less reliance on imported goods, industrial production is focused at the local/national level and overall production output is

higher than in the Baseline scenario. However, there is a strong focus on the efficiency of energy and resource use, and on meeting

environmental standards. As a result levels of pollution to air and water, waste production and water consumption are comparable to those

in the Baseline scenario - increasing pollution control measures balance the potential effects of higher production..

Tourism Tourist arrivals and departures are reduced considerably in comparison to the Baseline scenario and domestic tourism increases as a result

of growth in the attractiveness of local destinations. Eco-friendly destinations and local community-based leisure pursuits increase in

popularity (e.g. conservation volunteering, long-distance hiking and camping). The diversity of local options for recreational activities

reduces pressure on coastal areas.

Overall, there are lower levels of transportation compared to the Baseline scenario and all other scenarios, both due to a reduction in

transboundary movements and a greater concern for environmental protection.

Vehicle movements are much reduced compared to the Baseline scenario with a focus on local provision of goods and local tourism, and

development of localised transport infrastructure, e.g. local rail. Vehicle emissions are also strictly controlled, motivated by environmental

protection.

Maritime movements are much reduced compared to the Baseline scenario, due to a major reduction in international trade. What shipping

remains is strictly regulated in terms of environmental impact (both air emissions and in terms of protection against oils spills, etc).

Transport

- terrestrial

- maritime

- air Air transport is much reduced, due to a focus on local rather than international tourism. Also there is a focus on reducing emissions from

aircraft, thus resulting in a major reduction compared to the Baseline scenario.

Urbanisation/ coastal Urbanisation and coastal development is severely restricted and where possible land is returned to agricultural/undeveloped use (e.g.

Appendix 2

DRIVER SECTOR LOCAL RESPONSIBILITY

development industrial closure). Major international ports shrink, with some closing as a result of the decrease in international trade. Small-scale ports

flourish, but environmental impacts are minimised through strict planning controls and the use of eco-friendly craft (e.g. sailing transport).

Investment in and maintenance of coastal defences is reduced and a "managed retreat" is a significant policy option. Locally important

urban areas are protected through the use of locally raised public funds.

Appendix 2

DRIVER SECTOR WORLD MARKETS

Agriculture Farm size increases. Technological improvements such as precision farming techniques are offset by a relaxation in environmental

regulations, leading to an increase in fertiliser use as compared to the Baseline scenario albeit with resultant higher crop yields. Pesticide

use, however, declines as a result of a much greater use of GM crops. Organic farming exists to meet specialist consumer demand but at

much lower levels than the Baseline scenario. Livestock numbers remain relatively stable as compared to the Baseline scenario as a result

of increases in food imports in the EU.

Energy Energy use increases significantly with relatively substantial economic growth. Russian gas forms an important energy source, but high

energy demands also result in the development of all available sources in Europe, such as nuclear power. There is little pressure for control

of emissions. Overall, therefore, emissions increase compared to the Baseline scenario.

Fisheries Fisheries activity declines. The Common Fisheries Policy remains in place due to the importance of international trade. However,

increasing availability of cheaper international protein sources results in a decline in fisheries production and less commercial viability of

aquaculture. Under the Common Fisheries Policy there is less focus on stock management, so over-fishing is greater than under the

Baseline scenario.

Household Water consumption rises as a result of economic growth, an increase in household numbers, the development of more distributed

communities and minimal environmental concerns. This rising consumption is, however, offset somewhat by the adoption of widespread

metering, full economic pricing of supply and technological improvements to reduce leakage. Secondary waste water treatment facilities

increase, but at a lower rate than the Baseline scenario as environmental considerations are replaced by basic infrastructure requirements.

Thus, only where new facilities replace old is an improvement in the standard of treatment introduced. Waste production rises significantly

above the Baseline scenario but improvements in waste treatment technology (e.g. microwave technology and incineration) sees landfill

reducing although at a reduced rate in comparison to the Baseline scenario.

Industry Industrial activity declines as much of the activity in this sector transfers outside Europe, though also with some movement to eastern

Europe. Thus, even though there is less pressure for environmental regulation, overall emissions are reduced compared to the Baseline

scenario, although occasional hot spots remain, which could be more significant than under the Baseline scenario.

Tourism Tourist departures and arrivals increase over and above the Baseline scenario as economic growth in personal wealth increases demand both

inside the EU and further afield. Tourist preferences for more water-based leisure activities (e.g. diving, water-skiing and the use of motor

driven recreational craft) sees an increase in the facilities which cater for such activities (e.g. artificial wrecks, marinas, etc.)

The increase in trade and economic growth leading to increased consumption patterns increase all forms of transport activity.

There is a major increase in vehicle movements compared to the Baseline scenario due to higher incomes but less pressure for emission

controls. Therefore, emissions increase significantly compared to the Baseline scenario.

Increasing trade results in a major increase in shipping. With no major pressure for emission controls and protection against oil spills, both

of these increase.

Transport

- terrestrial

- maritime

- air Air transport increases significantly, partly due to trade, but mostly from a major increase in international tourism and business flights.

There is little pressure for emission controls, so that emissions from this sector increase significantly.

development

The amount of coastline developed increases over the Baseline scenario as a result of high demand for coastal land (e.g. for Port

development, second homes, tourism and other recreational activities) coupled with a growth in income. Growth in international trade sees

port development increase rapidly in response to market pressures. Coastal defence of existing areas of development is limited but there is

Appendix 2

DRIVER SECTOR WORLD MARKETS

no motivation to construct defended reclaimed areas so that there is only a slight pressure on development from this source, as in the

Baseline scenario. However, investment and maintenance comes from the private sector, in order to protect significant assets in the

valuable coastal zone.

Appendix 2

DRIVER SECTOR GLOBAL COMMUNITY

Agriculture Fertiliser and pesticide use falls in comparison to the Baseline scenario as agricultural and environmental policies merge, resulting in

increased yields balanced with reductions in input, although the risk of any shortfalls in supply is mitigated by imports. Livestock numbers

are also reduced in comparison to the Baseline scenario as a result of the decrease in demand for animal protein. Organic farming increases

over and above the Baseline scenario.

Energy There is an increase in energy needs, but with a focus on an increasing use of renewable sources to meet these needs wherever possible.

There is also pressure for rigorous implementation of environmental regulation. These trends result in higher energy prices than in the

Baseline scenario but with significant reductions in emissions.

Fisheries The Common Fisheries Policy is retained but developed to manage stocks on an international basis but greater consideration is given to

stock conservation, so that recovery is enhanced over the Baseline scenario. There is some increase in aquaculture where economic, but this

is undertaken with the introduction of controls over pollution.

Household Water consumption reduces in comparison to the Baseline scenario as a result of shifting personal values and new environmental controls

over water resources. Compliance with European standards involves a widespread adoption of secondary waste water treatment and an

increase in the use of tertiary treatment facilities. Waste production falls as European legislation and policies on limiting resource

consumption are implemented. The diversity of waste treatment increases as landfill reduction targets are enforced and new technologies

widely adopted.

Industry There is movement of industry from western Europe to the east and out of Europe altogether. However, concern over ‘footprint’ issues

means that this trend is less than under the World Markets scenario. Thus, some important industry is retained. Where this occurs,

investment is directed towards eco-efficient firms and away from heavily polluting firms, with strict implementation of pollution control

regulation. This control results in significant reduction of pollution compared to the Baseline scenario.

Tourism There is a reduction in the number of tourist arrivals and departures in comparison to the Baseline scenario as a mixture of tightening

regulation (e.g. European standards in terms of tourism intensity), the increased use of economic instruments (e.g. a tax on aviation) and

shifting consumer preferences (e.g. for eco-friendly destinations) sees more holidays taken locally. Recreational activities with low

environmental impact grow in popularity (e.g. hiking, cycling and bird-watching) as do health and spa tourism. Pressure on coastal areas is

reduced.

Transport has a different structure to that in the Baseline scenario. There is an increase in some journeys due to increase in international

trade, but also a reduction in some types of movements due to a concern over responsible tourism, etc. International co-operation results in

the development of transport management plans, providing integrated approaches to transport needs and their environmental consequences.

There is some increase in terrestrial commercial transport but offset by increased use of public transport by passengers so that overall

activity is comparable to the Baseline scenario. There are more significant pressures for emission controls for both environmental and

health protection so that emissions are reduced compared to the Baseline scenario.

There is an increase in shipping movements compared to the Baseline scenario due to increasing international trade. However, there is also

pressure for control of emissions and hull standards, thus this will offset some of the consequences of increasing movements.

Transport

- terrestrial

- maritime

- air There are reduced air journeys compared to the Baseline scenario due to a greater concern over environmental impacts. This reduction is

not offset by the increase in trade movements.

Urbanisation/ coastal Coastal development is restricted notwithstanding high demand. International agreements on broad ranging Integrated Coastal Zone

Appendix 2

DRIVER SECTOR GLOBAL COMMUNITY

development Management plans and European wide planning policies for vulnerable areas mean that development is tightly controlled. Port

development increases, but is restricted to less sensitive locations agreed within a regional context. Coastal defence is managed with a

degree of precision with high-value assets being subjected to significant public investment and maintenance and a "managed retreat" in

areas of ecological importance.

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