asq 2006 energy and environmental conference nuclear power initiatives and quality perspectives
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ASQ 2006 Energy and Environmental Conference Nuclear Power Initiatives and Quality Perspectives. Jack B. Allen Senior Vice President – Operational Excellence Westinghouse Electric Company. Overview. World Nuclear Snapshot U.S. Plan New Plants Opportunities QUALITY Foundation. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Jack B. AllenSenior Vice President – Operational ExcellenceWestinghouse Electric Company
ASQ 2006 Energy and Environmental Conference
Nuclear Power Initiatives and Quality Perspectives
2
Overview
•World Nuclear Snapshot
•U.S. Plan
•New Plants Opportunities
•QUALITY Foundation
3
World Electricity Demand Growth (bkWh)
16,00018,875
21,40023,677
26,018
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Source: EIA International Energy Outlook - Updated 07/05
63% Increase Needed in Next 20 Years
4
Forecast Electricity Demand by RegionSource: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2004Source: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2004
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
1990 1995 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025
(Billion KWh)
Asia
Europe
U.S
Rest of World
Extensive expansion of installed generating capacity needed!
5
Nuclear…A Major Role in Global GenerationNuclear…A Major Role in Global Generation
7877
58
53
4644
42393939
3635343131
29
23232020
1513
1187
444431
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Lithuan
ia
France
Belgiu
m
Slova
k RP
Ukrai
ne
Swed
en
Bulgar
ia
Korea
RP
Hungar
y
Slove
nia
Switz
erla
nd
Armen
ia
Japan
Finla
nd
Ger
man
y
Spain
United
Kingdom
Taiw
an
United
State
s
Czech
RP
Russia
Canad
a
Romani
a
Argen
tina
South A
frica
Brazi
l
Nether
lands
India
Mex
io
Pakis
tan
China
Source: International Atomic Energy Agency & World Nuclear Association Database
Percentage
New Construction in Progress
441 Operating Commercial Nuclear Power Plants Worldwide
6
Anticipated Global Nuclear Capacity Demand
286
100 8761 64
37 33 26 19 2045 31
82
2 09111773631
121 25
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2050 (High)
2050 (Low)
2000
GWe
Ref: The Future of Nuclear PowerAn Interdisciplinary MIT Study (2003) and Westinghouse Analysis
477
200
175
6862
4937 32 39
91
1746
7
The Nuclear Renaissance
New plants under construction or strong consideration:New plants under construction or strong consideration:CanadaCanada South AfricaSouth AfricaChinaChina South Korea South Korea Czech RepublicCzech Republic Switzerland Switzerland FinlandFinland TaiwanTaiwanFranceFrance TurkeyTurkeyIndiaIndia U.K. U.K. RussiaRussia U.S. U.S.
VietnamVietnam
New plants under construction or strong consideration:New plants under construction or strong consideration:CanadaCanada South AfricaSouth AfricaChinaChina South Korea South Korea Czech RepublicCzech Republic Switzerland Switzerland FinlandFinland TaiwanTaiwanFranceFrance TurkeyTurkeyIndiaIndia U.K. U.K. RussiaRussia U.S. U.S.
VietnamVietnam
8
New Plant Markets Present Significant Growth Opportunities - Asia• China: 9 operating units; 2 under construction
– Demand growth of 250% over 15 years– Evaluating AP1000 - 4 plant bid– Plan to build 35 – 40 new plants
• South Korea: Commitment to balanced energy policy – Will award two additional orders in 2006 / 2007
• Japan: Toshiba ownership expands Westinghouse name/market
• India: Establishing U.S. nuclear relationship
9
Growth Opportunities – Europe and South AfricaOpening of markets in European Union provides
opportunities for U.S. companies
• Finland: New reactor under construction
• Belgium, Germany, Sweden: Future energy policy under review; owners investing in upgrades
• Eastern Europe (EU): Evaluating energy needs;more new nuclear build programs likely
• United Kingdom: Gap looming with old nuclear units retiring soon. Energy review includes nuclear
• Republic of South Africa: 1-2 units needed, PBMR later
10
Drivers of Global Market for Nuclear Plants• Rapidly growing economies in Asia• Coal transport limits • Need for fuel supply security, price stability
- Russia cuts natural gas deliveries (contract dispute)• Kyoto Accords (reduce greenhouse gas emissions)• Old plants retiring• IAEA projection of nuclear by 2030: - Low estimate: 54 GW more than 2005 capacity
(about 45 plants)- High estimate: 309 GW more (about 257 plants)
11
Impact to U.S. Resources
• Lessons learned for design, manufacture and construction of new plants
• Potential to move focus from current plant upgrade, maintenance and operation
• Step change demand to a consolidated infrastructure
• Call to arms for knowledge transfer
12
Nuclear Power - 20% of U.S. Electricity Production
(Number of operating units per site shown in parenthesis)
Columbia (1)
DiabloCanyon (2)
San Onofre (2)
Palo Verde (3)
Monticello (1)
Prairie Island (2)
Ft. Calhoun (1)
Cooper (1)
Wolf Creek (1)
Duane Arnold (1)
Callaway (1)
ANO (2)
Comanche Peak (2)
South Texas (2)
River Bend (1)
Waterford (1)
TurkeyPoint (2)
St. Lucie(2)
Farley (2)
Hatch (2)
Vogtle (2)
Sequoyah (2) Oconee
(3)
Catawba (2)
H. B. Robinson (1)
Summer (1)
McGuire (2)
Harris (1)
Brunswick (2)
Surry(2)
NorthAnna(2)
Calvert Cliffs (2)
Hope Creek (1)
Salem (2)
Oyster Creek (1)
Millstone (2)
Pilgrim (1)
Seabrook (1)
VermontYankee
(1)
FitzPatrick(1)
Nine Mile Point (2)
Ginna (1)
Clinton (1)
La Salle (2)
Kewaunee (1)
Point Beach (2)
Palisades (1)
Cook (2)
Fermi (1)
Davis-Besse (1)
Perry (1)
(2)Susquehanna
Peach Bottom (2)
Three Mile Island (1)
Limerick (2)Indian Point (2)
Quad-Cities (2)
Byron (2)
Dresden (2)Braidwood (2)
CrystalRiver
(1)
Grand Gulf (1)
BrownsFerry (3)
Watts Bar (1)
Beaver Valley (2)
103 Nuclear Power PlantsTotaling 97,018 MWe
13
Key Developments Renewed U.S. Interest in Nuclear
• Natural gas prices soar• Focus on greenhouse gas emissions • Existing nuclear plants operating safely and
economically• NRC new licensing process (avoid another
Shoreham)• Energy Policy Act 2005• Electricity demand growth• Advanced plant designs
14
5,648
3,900
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2005 2030
Growth in Electricity Demand
Bil
lio
n k
Wh
U.S. Needs by 2030… 45 % More Electricity
Source: Energy Information Administration
15
Company Site Early Site Permit Design,# of Units
Construction/Operating License
Dominion North Anna Under review, approval expected late 2006
ESBWR (1) COL application in 2007
NuStart (TVA) Bellefonte Likely straight to COL AP1000 (1) COL expected to be developed for 2007 submittal
NuStart (Entergy) Grand Gulf Under review, approval expected early 2007
ESBWR (1) COL expected to be developed for 2007/2008 submittal
Entergy River Bend Likely straight to COL ESBWR (1) COL application in 2008
Southern Company Vogtle Under development, to be submitted mid-2006
AP1000 COL preparations to start 2006 with a submittal date of 2008
Progress Energy Shearon Harris,Florida site TBD
Will go straight to COL AP1000 (4) COL preparations started, submittal in 2008
S.C. Electric & Gas/ Santee Cooper
V.C. Summer Will go straight to COL AP1000 COL application in 2007
Duke Not yet determined Will go straight to COL AP1000 (2) Will start COL preparation in 2005
Exelon Clinton Under review, approval expected mid-2007
Not yet determined
Not yet determined
UniStar Calvert Cliffs or Nine Mile Point
Will go straight to COL EPR (1) 2008 (COL and EPR design certification conducted in parallel)
Source: Nuclear Energy Institute, Washington, DC (February 23, 2006)
U.S. New Nuclear Plant Activity
Currently Planned New U.S. Units
17
Leaders for Combined Operating License Process
• NuStart Energy Development– Companies engaged: 11 – Reactor designs: Westinghouse AP1000 and GE ESBWR
• Dominion-led– Companies engaged: 4– Reactor design: GE ESBWR
• TVA-led– Companies engaged: 6– Feasibility study to site GE Advanced BWR
18
Operating Plant Uprate Activities
•Replacement of Reactor Vessel Head
•Replacement Steam Generators
•Weld Overlay of Nozzle Penetrations
•Upgrades to Instrumentation and Control Systems
19
Dezurik
Mueller Steam
Daniel Valve
Copes-VulcanK-
Flo
Durco
Byron Jackson
Pacific Pumps
Unite
d Ce
ntrif
ugal
Worthington
Edward
Anchor-Darling
Limito
rque Actu
ators
Nordstrom
ValtekVoght
Keystone
Crosby
Anderson-GreenwoodTricentric
Atwood & Morrill
Blakeborough
Hopkinsons
Flowguard
EMD Target Rock
Supply Base Shrinking…Pump and Valve Suppliers for Example
Dezurik
Mueller Steam
Daniel ValveCopes-Vulcan
K-Flo
Durco
Byron Jackson
Pacific Pumps
United Centrifugal
Worthington
Edward
Anchor-Darling
DurcoLimitorque Actuators
Nordstrom
ValtekVoght
Keystone
Crosby
Anderson-Greenwood
Tricentric
Atwood & Morrill
Blakeborough
Hopkinsons
Flowguard
EMD
Target Rock
FlowserveWeir Valves & Controls
SPX Valves & Controls
Tyco Flow Control Curtiss-Wright
20
Some Emerging Issues and Trends
• Major/Replacement Hardware Quality and Schedule Failures– Manufacturing, machining and special process controls
errors
– Materials and supplier qualifications• Supply Base Shrinkage and Lost Quality “Pedigree”
• Transition to Digital Instrumentation & Controls
• Critical Non-Safety Related Equipment Performance– Reactor coolant pump motors and non-safety transformers
21
Industry Perceptions• Lacking Confidence in Supply Base
– Issues, outage delays and lost expertise and knowledge
• Migration from ASME Nuclear to ISO-9001 or Commercial Quality Assurance Programs– Commercial dedication of components
– Compensatory measures - inspection, oversight
• Active Customer Engagement (INPO – Institute of Nuclear Power Operations)– Human Performance, Corrective Action Programs, Operating experience and
Nuclear Safety Conscious Work Environment
• Active Regulator Engagement
22
New Techniques: Construction Modularization
• Large components• Alternative fabrication and assembly locations
• Assembly transport• Sub-assembly and test practices
23
• Step Change Growth – Multiple Plants
• Competitiveness
• Sub-Supplier Performance Assurance
• Continuous Improvement Behaviors– Quality and Human Performance
– Waste Elimination
– Product and Technology Development
• Alliance Relationships
Supplier Base Demands and Expectations
24
Thoughts …“What keeps us up at night”
• Commitment to Sub-supplier Oversight
• Achievement of Customer Expectations– Zero Tolerance for Error– Implementation of Human Performance Tools
• The Big Picture– Step Change for Pace and Volume of Business – New Personnel Knowledge Transfer– Re-instilling Rigor and Discipline of “Nuclear QA”– An INCIDENT Anywhere … Affects EVERYONE !
25
Hayes - Wheelwright Model
Timing and Impact of Attention and Influence
26
• World-class Environmental, Health and Safety• Flawless Execution• Cost Competitiveness• Develop / Maintain Critical Skills
Sy
stem
Man
ag
emen
tC
us
tom
er
1st
• CFL Training• Project Outcome• Customer 1st Project Reviews• Behavioral Modification
• Behavioral Differentiation• Create Success for Customers
• Develop Leading Technology Solutions • Innovation
Westinghouse “Critical to Success” Objectives
FY2007
Achieve Sustainable Growth by Contributingto Our Customers’ Success
CustomerIntimacy
OperationalExcellence
TechnologyLeadership
27
Quality of Execution
Quality of Execution
Ease of Doing Business
Ease of Doing Business
Lean EnterpriseLean Enterprise Six-SigmaSix-Sigma Human Performance
Human Performance
Behavioral Differentiation
Behavioral Differentiation
Design for Six-Sigma
Design for Six-Sigma
Tools Enable Improvement
28
Call to Arms for QUALITY Professionals
• Respond to lessons learned for design, manufacture and construction of nuclear equipment
• Restore Nuclear Quality Programs and Rigor
• Implement Continuous Improvement Plans • Rapidly Initiate Knowledge and Experience Transfer
• Maintain Industry QUALITY Conscience
29
a Strong Quality Foundation and Team which …
Starts with YOU
New Opportunities Require Re-building …
31