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a

a

4.4 106Sm3/d 2.2106Sm3/d

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Sm3/d

4.4 10

6

2.2 106

4.4 106

5.0 106

4.4106Sm3/d 3.0106 Sm3/d 60 bar

26500 m3/d 23300 m3/d

23300 m3/d

m3/d

m3/d

1.0 106Sm3/d

100 bar

60 bar

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Sm3/d m3/d m3/d Sm3

1 106 5.0 106 26500 8000 1 106 4.0 106 21200 6400

0 3.0 106 15900 4800

0.1 106 Sm3/d

13MW 7 MW 6 M W

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M W MW

ij(ij) i j

ij(ij)

i j

0

7/27/2019 Assessment of the availability of an o shore installation by Monte Carlo simulation

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1/h

0 1 0.79 103 6.70 104

1 2 1.86 103 2.12 103

0 2 5.70 105 0.17 103 0.77 103 7.40 104

1 0 3.20 102 3.30 102

2 0 3.33 101 3.20 102 3.80 102 4.80 102

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34

22

= 324

7/27/2019 Assessment of the availability of an o shore installation by Monte Carlo simulation

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308+

2

6

+2

3

6

+3

4

6

+4

5

6

+5

6

6

= 437

k t

t

T(t|t, k) t t

k k C(k|t, k)

k

t

k k t t

Tmiss t l

k [t, t]

t

Nc

2Nc

X (X)

(X) = 0 X

(X) = 1 X

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Mi i = 1, . . . , nmcs

(X)

(X) = 1 (1 M1)(1 M2)(. . . )(1 Mnmcs)

2Nc

p > 2

(X) = l X

l

m

l 0, 1, . . . , p 1

l= 1, . . . , p 1 l l(X) = 0 X l 1 mcsl

p l

X l= 0, 1, . . . , 6

X p 1 l

X

X

3 5 X3X5 = 1

X5 = 1

X3 = 1 X3X5 = 1

X2 4

X3X5 3

(X) = 0

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Xi = 1 i i= 1, . . . , 6

kSm3/d km3/d m3/d

X5 X6 X5 X6 X3 X4 X2X3 X2X4 X3X5 X3X6 X2X3X5 X2X3X6

X4X5 X4X6 X2X4X5 X2X4X6 X2 X2 X2X5 X2X6 X2X5 X2X6

X1 X3X4 X5X6 X1X2X3X4X5X6

X1X3X4X5X6

X3X5

X3X6X4X5X4X6

X2X3 X2X5X2X4 X2X6

X5 X2X6

X1 X3X4, X5X6

X

X

X

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X3X5

105

TM 103

104

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Tm 5105

1.8 103 1.5 102

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9.23 101 9.12 101 8.13 101

3.13 102 2.73 102 5.68 102

3.67 102 2.72 102 6.58 102

2.47 103 0.00 1.19 102

4.88 103 3.40 102 3.55 102

3.50 104 0.00 2.34 103

1.79 103 0.00 1.50 102

m3 year Sm3 year m3 year

8.482 106 1.065 109 2.447 106

8.479 106 1.069 109 2.486 106

8.154 106 0.970 109 2.446 106

Tm 5 105