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Capital suggestion

In economics, demand is "how much of something people want" and

supply is "how much of something is available". Price, in a competitivemarket, is derived by the interaction of supply and demand and

output is ultimately dependent on demand.

In a democracy, demand is what and how much of something voters

want and supply is what and how much of something their elected

leaders will make available. To be certain, elected leaders will supply

more or less whatever their voters demand.

What do Pakistani voters demand? Lets begin with the total number of

voters 85.4 million of which 60 million are rural and 25 million are

urban. Of the 85.4 million, if the past nine elections are any guide,

around 50 million will not even turn out to vote. Of the 36 million who

will come out to vote, no more than 10 million will be from urban areas

and 26 million from rural areas.

What do 36 million Pakistani voters demand? The broadest division of

Pakistani voters is: urban-rural (roughly 30:70). And an almost parallel

division of the potential vote bank is: issue-driven and patronage-

driven.

What do 10 million urban voters demand? Of the 10 million urban

voters who will actually come out to vote, more than 2.5 million live in

Karachi (and thats the MQM territory). Essentially, all of Pakistans

urban areas outside Karachi hold a mere 7.5 million voters who willturn out. What do these 7.5 million demand? If surveys are to be

believed and there is no reason not to believe in representative

surveys then the issues are inflation, unemployment, electricity,

corruption, terrorism, drones, etc.

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What do 26 million rural voters demand? The given in all rural areas is

the absolute absence of the state. What happens when there is no

state? Answer: Abraham Maslow walks in with his hierarchy of needs.

What do rural voters demand? Answer: Four things: security of body,

security of resources, security of family and security of property. If

surveys are to be believed and there is no reason not to believe in

representative surveys then one of the most important rural issues is

cattle theft.

Question: Who will win? Answer: The machine politician. Remember,

of the 272 National Assembly seats, 190 are rural and a machine

politician is someone who successfully puts together a machine that

provides 26 million rural voters what they demand. Someone who

successfully puts together a machine that provides 26 million ruralvoters the services of thana-kutchery followed up by the distribution of

state resources, including developmental funds and state employment

(by the MNA down to the voters).

May 11 is neither about national issues nor about morality. May 11 is

all about getting elected, capturing state resources and the distribution

of those resources down to your voters. Thats supply and demand,

isnt it?

In economics, an exchange of a good or a service only takes place

when a buyer and a seller agree on a particular price; democracy is no

different. The trouble with a politicians life, however, is that

somebody is always interrupting it with an election.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email:

farrukh15@hotmail.com.

Tweets: @saleemfarrukh