Bonn Contact Point Meeting June 2011

CCAFS: Theme 1 overview

Andy JarvisTheme 1 Leader

2 • 3/21/11

Problems/Opportunities

Problem: 60-70% more food to support a growing population….

…..under an uncertain and potentially unfriendly climate

Countries and communities asking: What does climate change imply, what can I do to adapt, how much will it cost, how do I implement it?

Opportunity: Massive amount of existing knowledge on technologies and practices for production, and increasing food system governance from local to global level

3 • 3/21/11

0 0.25 0.50 0.75 1

Exacerbating the yield gap

From Licker et al, 2010

Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers (e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap

4 • 3/21/11

Progressive Adaptation

THE VISION

To adapt farming systems, we need to:

• Close the production gap by effectively using technologies, practices and policies

• Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential

• Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level

5 • 3/21/11

Input Providers Consumer

Other Crops

Structural Adaptation

Action: Common Code for the Coffee Community (C4) introduces an add-on climate module that would indicate when coffee producers have adapted their production system to a changing climate.

Result: Retailers agree to buy only C4-certified “climate-proofed” coffee. Accordingly, changes occur down the coffee supply chain, with collaborative efforts to create a more adaptive structure.

Adaptive Adjustments

Action:a) Shadingb) Changing varietalsc) Changing inputs

Result: Improved risk management at the farm level, allowing for long-term adaption.

Wholesale/Retail

C4

Coffee FederationCoffee Producers

a) Shading

6 • 3/21/11

Coffee Producers

Transformational Adaptation

Action: Migrate to keep farmingChange farming systems (agricultural)Switch livelihood sources (non-agricultural)

Result: Long-term adaptation, but requires significant up-front transition costs.

7 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies

Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

8 • 3/21/11

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

1.1

• Holistic testing of farming options (benchmark sites)

• Agricultural knowledge transfer

• Analysis of enabling policies and instit. mechanisms

Adapted farming systems

1.2

• Climate-proofed global and national breeding strategies

• Regional fora to discuss and set priorities

Breeding strategies for

climate stresses

1.3

• Knowledge for better use of germplasm for adaptation

• On-farm use of diversity to adapt

• Policies of access for benefit sharing

Species and genetic diversity

9 • 3/21/11

Approaches and impact pathways

Data and evidence based strategies and solutions

Climate scienceAgricultural modelling

Observation using climate variabilityAnalysis of community processes and responses, incl. social differentiation

Village to national levelSetting priorities

Develo

pm

en

t p

art

ners

, Pri

vate

Sect

or,

Polic

y

Outr

each

10 • 3/21/11

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up

Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture

What CCAFS output?

11 • 3/21/11

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: Farms of the future

The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality

What CCAFS output?

Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials

Why is it useful?

12 • 3/21/11 Karnal (India)

• Rainy season from June to September

13 • 3/21/11Farmer exchanges for adaptation knowledge management

14 • 3/21/11

15 • 3/21/11

TPE analysis

Future systems

Knowledge &

intuition

Ideotype concept

Gene/alleledisc

overy

Intelligent

phenotyping

designs

Marker develop

mt.

Modeling

Marker validatio

n,Integrati

on,G x E x M

Molecular

breeding

Intelligent choice

of populatio

ns

Creative thinking & wild bets Forcing by target environment

CHANGE

Con-vention

al breedin

g

Application

Methodology

Search

Function, regulatio

n,phénotyp

e

Strategic choices

DiversityPanels

BiparentalPops

CCAFS (CRP7) activity 1.2:

Breeding strategies & ideotypes for 2030 horizon

16 • 3/21/11

>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrial.org)

20,000+ maize trials in 123 research sites

Effect of +1ºC warming on yield

Sites with >23ºC would suffer even if optimally managed

More than 20% loss in sites with >20ºC, under drought

Lobell et al. 2011

17 • 3/21/11

• Over 3,000 trials• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15 international and national institutions

New data

>> Multi-site agricultural trial database(agtrials.org)

18 • 3/21/11

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform

It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.

Why is it useful?

The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge.

What CCAFS output?

19 • 3/21/11

>> 5 easy things you can do!

•Share your climate change stories with us and post on the AMKN•Join the trial data sharing community (agtrials.org) and work with us on GxE analyses for your crops•Work with us on objective 1.2 in developing breeding strategies for your centre crop•Tell us your adaptation technologies and practices and work with us in evaluating their future using analogues•Share your climate data through ccafs-climate.org

20 • 3/21/11

Better integrating center activities

• Theme activities are ~90% within centres!

• Share your success stories, give me slides (with your logo!)

• Use theme-lead science products – it is all totally public

• Use other centre science products in your research

• Develop cross-centre program activities• Get on the bus!

21 • 3/21/11

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