Contact Point meeting Copenhagen April 2012

CCAFS: Theme 1 Adapting to Progressive Climate Change

Andy JarvisTheme 1 Leader

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Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change

Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies

Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climates

Objective Three: Integrated adaptation strategies for agricultural and food systems inserted into policy and institutional frameworks

3 • 3/21/11 Theme 1 Strategy

Problem definition: DIAGNOSTICBIO/

ENV DATA

SOCIO/ECO DATA

MODELS

CAP. BUILDING/GENDER

EVALUATION OF ADAPTATION OPTIONS AND

TECHNOLOGIES

(2012)

(2012- 2014)

1.2 RESEARCH Strategies (breeding) -> CRPs1.3 POLICY + INSTITUTIONAL STRATEGIES * Food system * Nat -> sub-national

1.1 COMMUNITY / FARMING SYSTEM + LOCAL FOOD SYSTEM STRATEGIES

SCIENCE BASED ADAPTATION STRATEGIES

OBJECTIVES

Syst

em

level

adapta

tion

stra

tegie

s

(2012- 2015)

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Climate Analogues: Finding future climates for actual adaptation

•70% of expected future climates already exist somewhere else

•Facilitates exchange of knowledge, technology, and practices between analogue sites

•Validates computational models and develops novel research

The 2030 climate of a maize-growing area near Durban will correspond to the current climate of a major maize-growing area in Argentina. Growers in Durban can learn from these analogous climates how to adapt as their climate shifts.

http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues/

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>>A 4 year road map for Objective 1.2Long term agreement set up with CIRAD, and in conjunction with GRISP and RTB + others on a road map for developing climate-smart breeding strategies

•Initial breeding strategies published for four crops in crop adaptation book (involving 3 CGIAR centres):

•Bananas•Beans•Cassava•Potato

•Breeding fora held in Ethiopia, December 2011 involving 5 centers

Initial results

Major 2011 Outputs

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http://www.agtrials.org:8080/

20 crops

2483 trials

Agtrials: Assembling public data in a common portal

•Calibrates and validates crop models

•Indicates adaptation options: Genetic improvement, on-farm

management, etc.

•Improves access technology transfer options

•Builds “adaptation packages”

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Participatory SROI: Costing climate change adaptation at the

community level•Current top-down models underestimate the cost of adaptation

•Comprises two complementary phases with distinct outputs

•Matches CC interventions with local resources and priorities

Three pilots in Kenya and Senegal identified challenges (attaining seeds and training for agroforestry) and perceived benefits (source of wood, fodder for animals, monetary returns) of adaptation strategies involving interplanting tree species within croplands.

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2011 Center Reports: some highlights

•IWMI: Vulnerability in Nile and Volta basins and preliminary analysis of water storage and water allocation policies for adaptation.

•IWMI: Policy support in Sri Lanka in design of NAPA

•ICARDA: Central Asia household modelling and evaluation of policy responses

•CIAT: Adaptation framework for adaptation of food supply chains, including gender component, and applied in 3 countries

•Bioversity: matching seeds for needs in multiple countries

•Bioversity: Global genetic resource policy for enabling germplasm access and benefit sharing in a changing climate

•Worldfish: Adaptation planning in Vietnam aquaculture

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•Multi-center technology testing (IRRI, CIAT, ICARDA): salt and heat tolerant rice in the Mekong, water-logging tolerant forage varieties in Latin America, and heat tolerant livestock in the Middle East

•Multi center pest and disease risk assessment (CIMMYT, CIAT and ICARDA) for cassava, maize, wheat and barley

•Multi center crop breeding priority analysis (CIAT, IRRI, Bioversity, CIP)

Centers working on similar things without

knowing it!

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Key challenges for 2012• Getting beyond diagnosis, and identifying more solutions

•Contributing TOGETHER to identify solutions. •Priorities: millions of adaptation options, but are we focusing on the most appropriate? Right now it is a mixed bag, and fairly random• Major knowledge gaps: pest and disease impacts and changes needed in pest management, breeding for resistance etc.• Areas to focus efforts and build up in the portfolio:

• System thinking (food system, farming system, socio-economic contexts)•Policy engagement for adaptation plans and strategies, including economics: NAPAs, NAPs•Holistic testing of adaptation options: comparative, complementary