ch3 human resource planning

8/11/2019 CH3 Human Resource Planning

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m_wahbam_wahba20032003 hotmailhotmail..comcom

HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING

Lectures Week 3

Dr. Mohamed wahba

HUMAN RESOURCE

MANAGEMENT

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After studying this chapter, you should be able to:After studying this chapter, you should be able to:

Define HR planning and outline the HRplanning process.

Discuss several ways of managing a

surplus of human resources. Explain the main techniques used in

employment planning and forecasting.


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Linking Employers Strategy to Plans

Figure 52


Human Resource Planning

Human Resource (HR) Planning

The process of analyzing and identifying the needfor and availability of human resources so that theorganization can meet its objectives.

HR Planning Responsibilities

Top HR executive and subordinates gatherinformation from other managers to use in thedevelopment of HR projections for topmanagement to use in strategic planning andsetting organizational goals


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Reasons, human resources planning

Increasing population and the large size of the workforceand the diversity of the composition.

The spread of education and diversity and the increase inprofessional disciplines.

Increasing number of organizations and institutions andthen increasing needs and compete for the availablemanpower.

Development of the technology used by organizationsand the need to obtain a workforce that can deal withthis technology.

Change the structures of organizations, both because ofthe development of technology or the changing nature ofactivities or a new expansion.


The importance of human resource planning

To obtain the required labor standards specified in theappropriate time.

Rationalize the use of the human resource and to directhis energies in the right direction.

Determine the proper career path for individuals.

Identify training needs for individuals

Functionally to facilitate the movement of workers (fromthe transfer and promotion)

Treat the problem of the imbalance that occurs in thedistribution of workers to different departments and units.

Stability of employment and raise their efficiency andincrease productivity


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Purpose of HR PlanningPurpose of HR Planning

Figure 24


Typical Division of HR Responsibilities:Typical Division of HR Responsibilities:HR PlanningHR Planning

Figure 25


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HR Planning ProcessHR Planning Process

Figure 26


Human Resource Planning (contd)

Small Business and HR Planning Issues

Attracting and retaining qualified outsiders

Management succession between generations ofowners

Evolution of HR activities as business grows

Family relationships and HR policies


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HR Planning Process

HR Strategies

The means used to anticipate and manage thesupply of and demand for human resources.

Provide overall direction for the way in which HRactivities will be developed and managed.

OverallOverallStrategic PlanStrategic Plan

Human ResourcesHuman ResourcesStrategic PlanStrategic Plan

HR ActivitiesHR Activities


Benefits of HR Planning

Better view of the HR dimensions of business

decisions

Lower HR costs through better HR

management.

More timely recruitment for anticipate HRneeds

More inclusion of protected groups through

planned increases in workforce diversity.

Better development of managerial talent


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Scanning the External Environment

Environmental Scanning

The process of studying the environment of theorganization to pinpoint opportunities and threats.

Environmental Changes Impacting HR

Governmental Influences

Economic conditions

Geographic and competitive concerns

Workforce composition


Assessing the Internal Workforce (contd)

Organizational Capabilities Inventory

HRIS databasessources of information aboutemployees knowledge, skills, and abilities (KSAs)

Components of an organizational capabilitiesinventory

Individual employee demographics

Individual employee career progression

Individual job performance data


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Forecasting HR Supply and Demand

Forecasting

The use of information from the past and present toidentify expected future conditions.

Forecasting Methods

Judgmental Estimatesasking managers opinions, top-down or

bottom-up

Rules of thumbusing general guidelines

Delphi techniqueasking a group of experts Nominal groupsreaching a group consensus in open

discussion


HR ForecastingHR Forecasting

Figure 27


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Forecasting HR Supply and Demand

(contd)

Forecasting Methods (contd)

Mathematical Statistical regression analysis

Simulation models

Productivity ratiosunits produced per employee

Staffing ratiosestimates of indirect labor needs

Forecasting Periods

Short-termless than one year Intermediateup to five years

Long-rangemore than five years


Forecasting HR Supply and Demand(contd)

Forecasting the Demand for Human Resources

Organization-wide estimate for total demand

Unit breakdown for specific skill needs by number and

type of employee Develop decision rules (fill rates) for positions to be filledinternally and externally.

Develop additional decision rules for positions impacted bythe chain effects of internal promotions and transfers.

Forecasting the Supply for Human Resources

External Supply

Internal Supply


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Forecasting HR Supply (contd)

Forecasting External HR Supply

Factors affecting external

Net migration for an area

Individuals entering and leaving the workforce

Individuals graduating from schools and colleges

Changing workforce composition and patterns

Economic forecasts

Technological developments and shifts

Actions of competing employers

Government regulations and pressures

Other circumstances affecting the workforce


Forecasting HR Supply

Forecasting Internal HR Supply

Effects of promotions, lateral moves, and terminations

Succession analysis

Replacement charts

Succession planning The process of identifyinga longer-term plan for theorderly replacement of keyemployees.


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Estimating Internal Labor Supply for a Given UnitEstimating Internal Labor Supply for a Given Unit

Figure 28

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Forecasting Personnel Needs

Trend analysis

The study of a firms past employment needs overa period of years to predict future needs.

Ratio analysis

A forecasting technique for determining futurestaff needs by using ratios between a causalfactor and the number of employees needed.

Assumes that the relationship between the causalfactor and staffing needs is constant


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The Scatter Plot

Scatter plot

A graphical method used to help identify therelationship between two variables.

Size of Hospital Number of(Number of Beds) Registered Nurses

200 240

300 260

400 470

500 500

600 620

700 660

800 820

900 860


Determining the Relationship BetweenHospital Size and Number of Nurses

Figure 53


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Trend Analysis of HR Demand

1997 $2,351 14.33 164

1998 $2,613 11.12 235

1999 $2,935 8.34 352

2000 $3,306 10.02 330

2001 $3,613 11.12 325

2002 $3,748 11.12 337

2003 $3,880 12.52 310

2004* $4,095 12.52 327

2005* $4,283 12.52 342

2006* $4,446 12.52 355

BUSINESS LABOR = HUMAN RESOURCESFACTOR PRODUCTIVITY DEMAND

YEAR (SALES IN THOUSANDS) (SALES/EMPLOYEE) (NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES)

*Projected figures


Drawbacks to Scatter Plots

1. They focus on projections and historical relationships, and

assume that the firms existing structure and activities will

continue into the future.

2. They generally do not consider the impact the companys

strategic initiatives may have on future staffing levels.

3. They tend to support compensation plans that reward managers

for managing ever-larger staffs, and will not uncover managers

who expand their staffs irrespective of strategic needs.

4. They tend to bake in the nonproductive idea that increases in

staffs are inevitable.

5. They tend to validate and institutionalize existing planning

processes and ways of doing things, even in the face of rapid

change.


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Using Computers to Forecast PersonnelRequirements

Computerized forecasts

The use software packages to determine of futurestaff needs by projecting sales, volume ofproduction, and personnel required to maintain avolume of output.

Generates figures on average staff levels required tomeet product demands, as well as forecasts for directlabor, indirect staff, and exempt staff.

Typical metrics: direct labor hours required to produceone unit of product (a measure of productivity), and threesales projectionsminimum, maximum, and probable.


Using Markov Analysis to ForecastPersonnel Requirements Markov analysisMarkov analysisis a technique that deals with the

probabilities of future occurrences by analyzing

presently known probabilities

It has numerous applications in business

Markov analysis makes the assumption that the systemstarts in an initial state or condition

The probabilities of changing from one state to another

are called a matrix of transition probabilities

Solving Markov problems requires basic matrix

manipulation


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Assumptions for using Markov

429

1. There are a limited or finite number of possiblestates

2. The probability of changing states remains thesame over time

3. We can predict any future state from theprevious state and the matrix of transitionprobabilities

4. The size and makeup of the system do not

change during the analysis


Markov Analysis for a Retail Company


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Ex1

Company consists of 300 employees at its headquarters

in Cairo and 100 employees in the branch of Alexandria.

The movement of staff during the past five years

represented the following percentages:

431

tofrom

CairoAlexandriaExit

CairoAlexandria

Predicted the number of staff in both headquartersand the branch of Alexandria the next two yearsthrough the numbers currently available only


YEAR 1

CAIRO

300

80CAIRO240

10Alexandria30

10EXIT30

Alexandria

100

15CAIRO15

75Alexandria75

10EXIT10

At the end of the first year the number of employees in CAIRO =240+15=255At the end of the first year the number of employees in Alexandria =75+30=105

SOLVE


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YEAR 2

CAIRO

255

80CAIRO204

10Alexandria26

10EXIT25

Alexandria

105

15CAIRO16

75Alexandria79

10EXIT10

At the end of the second year the number of employees in CAIRO =204+16=220At the end of the second year the number of employees in Alexandria= 26+79=105

SOLVE


Ex2

Company consists of three offices in Egypt (Cairo

- Tanta - Port Said) and works in this company in

2010 (900) employees distributed as follows:

400 employees in Cairo.

300 employees in Tanta.

200 employees in Port Said.

Predicted the number of staff in each region after

two years (at the end of 2012) if you have the

following information derived from the analysis of

the movement of staff during the past five years.

434


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EXEXEXEX2222

TO\FROMCairoTantaPortSaid

Exit

Cairo7051015

Tanta1065520

Port Said1057510


Manual Systems and Replacement Charts

Personnel replacement charts

Company records showing present performanceand promotability of inside candidates for themost important positions.

Position replacement card

A card prepared for each position in a company toshow possible replacement candidates and theirqualifications.


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How to deal with the surplus and deficit

438

First, dealing with the surplus

If the demand over supply in the labormarket

1. Rehabilitation of this type of employment2. Retain employment for cases of leaving the

service


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439

First, dealing with the surplus

If the supply over demand in the labor market:1. Retirement2. Encourage early retirement3. Unemployment compensation4. Training and retraining

5. Find alternative employment



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Secondly, dealing with the deficit

If the demand over supply in the labor market:1. Find new sources of employment

2. Facilitate the selection process3. Wage increase4. Raise the productivity of the individual5. Enlargement the job6. use Technology instate of employees


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Secondly, dealing with the deficit

If the demand over supply in the labor market:1. Choose the best available items


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