crystal ball volume 24 winter 2014

CRYSTAL BALL | CRYSTAL BALL | Periodical of the New ZealaNd avalaNche commuNity 1

nEw ZEALAnD MOUntAIn SAFEtY COUnCIL

PERIODICAL OF tHE nEw ZEALAnD AVALAnCHE COMMUnItY

DISCOVERMORE, SAFELY

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www.avalanche.net.nzwww.mountainsafety.org.nzwww.adventuresmart.org.nzwww.incidentreport.org.nz

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CONTENTS

01 Welcome

02 SAC Convenor corner

02 Snow and Avalanche Committee (SAC)

03 SAC - news and updates

05 Research -Using crowd sourcing to understand travel behaviour

10 Research - Cornice formation

11 Research - Perception of avalanche risk

12 Research - Snowpack modelling

13 Remarkables - new lift development

15 Applying an avalanche forecast - localising

17 Quick snowpack tests - new vocabulary

20 Pole probe tests and ski cutting

22 Avalanche search dogs in NZ

25 Checklists - nerdy but necessary

27 Mission WOW - women of winter

30 Summer avalanche cycles at Aoraki

33 The curious properties of snowThe Crystal BallVolume 24, Winter 2014

Editor: Gordie Smith

Managing Editor: Andrea Corrigan

Designer: Gordie Smith

Cover Photo Credit: Gordie Smith - Wind effect - Ski tourer on

a sea of scalloped sastrugi with cap cloud on summit.

Thank you to the contributors for giving permission to reproduce their material.

Copyright © New Zealand Mountain Safety Council 2014.All rights reserved.All opinions expressed in this magazine are not necessarily those of the New Zealand Mountain Safety Council. While efforts are made to check facts are accurate, responsibility lies with the author.

Editorial and Advertising enquiries

Do you have something to say or show? We would like articles relating to the professional avalanche industry, public avalanche safety, teaching tips, research papers, accounts of avalanche events, book and gear reviews, event listings, interviews, letters to the editor, and humorous stories related to avalanches.

We are also looking for winter mountain photography of avalanches, touring, terrain, skiing, snowboarding, active control work, backcountry recreation or avalanche awareness activities.

For more information please contact:

Andrew HobmanTel: +64 27 446 2626Fax: +64 4 385 7366Email: [email protected]

To have your voice heard at the SAC committee, contact your industry representative, or email: [email protected]

WELCOMEHi and welcome to the winter issue of the 2014 Crystal Ball.

Another busy summer of development and review has flashed by and now we are polishing off the last of the projects before winter fully hits.

The themes of risk management and safety systems have had an increased profile following on from the Government Adventure review and the reshuffle of the MoBIE and Work Safe NZ.

At the MSC this has seen a new Safety Management System with associated SOPs, forms and website portal. We have also registered our activities with Work Safe NZ and are undergoing an Outdoors Mark audit on all our training and education delivery.

The ski areas are currently exempt from the new regulations but the Heliski operations are not and have been very proactive in setting their safety guidelines in compliance. It is clear that the Government is taking this process very seriously and will take a hard line on any accidents. All this has highlighted the need for our sector to continue to review and apply the current safety systems, document all practices and share all learnings.

As always, we welcome your feedback on the format of the Crystal Ball and any suggestions on the content. If you have stories or articles we would love to see them, so please contact us with your submissions.

See you out in the hills.

- Andrew ‘Hobbie’ Hobman, Avalanche and Alpine programme manager

mailto:[email protected]



CONvENOr’S COrNEr // pETEr bilOuS

Welcome back to winter and all the anticipation and excitement the first big snowfalls of the season bring. Hopefully it generates as much enthusiasm and commitment to making it safely to spring.

Some of the recent mountaineering accidents both here and abroad have brought the hazards of alpine climbing into the spotlight. The Khumbu icefall accident claiming the lives of 16, (mostly Sherpa), Nepalese serves as a stark reminder of the severe consequences possible even when the likelihood of such an event is low.

We often find ourselves operating under a similar scenario when the avalanche danger is rated CONSIDERABLE due to a lurking deep persistent instability. It’s unfortunately too easy to become complacent when no accidents or incidents occur for an extended period, even though most can identify the ever present danger. When circumstances make event timing nearly impossible to predict, our choices become more difficult.

On the other side of the spectrum, when we may only expect avalanche conditions to produce small pockets of instability, the consequences increase exponentially where exposure to a falling hazard is present.

Tactically, minimising exposure via speedy travel and appropriate spacing may certainly lower one’s vulnerability to the risk. Sometimes the only acceptable strategy may be to manage the risk by choosing an alternate route or not going at all.

Whichever choices you make this season, let’s hope they are based on a solid systematic approach to evaluating the risk and then manage to keep those pesky human factors under control.

Convenor: Peter Bilous (Otago Polytech & AEWG rep)

Members: Dr I Owens (University of Canterbury)Don Bogie (Department of Conservation) Arthur Tyndall & Nick Jarmin (Club Ski Fields) Wayne Carran (Downer EDI Works)Andy Hoyle (SAANZ North Island)John Hooker (SAANZ South Island) Pete Zimmer (LandSAR)Kevin Boekholt (NZMGA)Andrew Hobman & Gordon Smith (NZMSC)

SNOw aNd avalaNChE COmmiTTEE (SaC)

Have a great, safe season.

–Peter BilousSnow and Avalanche Committee Convenor

the mission of MSC’s Snow and Avalanche Committee:To provide expert advice and support to the council on appropriate strategies to foster public safety in snow environments including:

• Overseeing the training, assessments and qualifications of instructors to ensure that national standards are maintained and enhanced

• Overseeing the professional training programmes of all providers as required

• Monitoring, research and review trends in snow and avalanche activities to ensure the Council remains the leading authority for safety in this environment.

To have your voice heard at the SAC committee, contact your industry representative or email [email protected]

Photo : Editor


SaC - NEwS aNd updaTES // EdiTOr

NEW DESIGN FOR BAA SIGN - After many surveys and prototypes, the new design for the BAA sign has been finalised. It will more closely reflect the information on the regional and forecast pages of avalanche.net.nz, showing a danger rating for each of the three elevation bands.Changing the slats, which indicate the danger levels will be made easy and secure through the use of ‘anti luce’ catches – similar to the ones on the rear gate of a car trailer.

Thanks to those who gave feedback to help refine the visual and mechanical function of the new design.

If you need a new sign or need to replace an older one, contact either Gordie Smith or Andrew Hob-man, to get the new design files. You can then take the files to your preferred signmaker for printing and fabrication.

[email protected]

[email protected]

NEW INDUSTRY RESOURCES - To find the latest industry resources, go to http://www.avalanche.net.nz/Resources/ Here you can browse and download he latest documents and links, including the Crystal Ball, ICAR, and all the proceedings from the International Snow Science Workshops (ISSW).

Below are two of the latest resources that have been added to the page.Addendum to Guidelines:At the recent Snow and Avalanche Committee (SAC) meeting a new addendum was ratified for the NZ Guidelines and Recording Standards for Weather, Snowpack and Avalanche Observations (2011, NZ) Published by the Mountain Safety Council.The new addendum adds detail for when recording ‘Types of Avalanche’. The new additions expand and accommodate the old codes and offer a common and continuous link from the observation phase right through recording and onto hazard forecasting. The Infoex system has been upgraded with the new codes and is ready to go. Much work was done by the working group which included both Kiwi and International consultants. The NZMSC extends our thanks for their work throughout the summer months.

INFOEX update - Graphical reports add on:In response to Industry requests the NZMSC has developed an Excel spreadsheet template for generating a monthly time-line profile chart for standard weather observation data extracted from the INFOEX website.While there is a little work involved compared to the current Graphical report embedded within INFOEX, this work around offers more flexibility and is a work in progress.Knowledge of EXCEL will help, but there is an accompanying written and video guide to help walk you through the process. When you have done a couple of these, and depending on your familiarity with Excel, each one should take less than 10 minutes to produce.Data must first be extracted (exported) from INFOEX, then edited so that it fits the correct column layout so the charts can be generated.



http://www.avalanche.net.nz/Resources/


SaC - NEwS aNd updaTES CONT’d // EdiTOr

RECCO reflectors to go in all new Ortovox transceivers

In a press release from RECCO, the makers of avalanche search and rescue equipment, they announced that from Novem-ber of last year (2013), Ortovox will include RECCO reflectors in all new transceivers they produce.They believe that this will aid a fast and successful search, as well as providing rescuers with an independent backup sys-tem. Read their full press release which details techniques for searchers to minimise distracting signals from fellow searchers and training tips. PDF format here http://www.avalanche.net.nz/Files/Recco-ortovox-rescuers-notice-ENG.pdf

TRANSCEIVER FIRMWARE/SOFTWARE UPGRADES

Most modern transceivers now have the ability to be upgraded without purchasing a new unit. Benefits can include bet-ter battery power management, feature enhancements, self and group check functions as well as resolving bugs that may have been in the initial rollout of a product.

Thanks to beaconreviews.com you can see which models are upgradable, and what each of the different firmware upgrades consist of click here http://beaconreviews.com/transceivers/Updating.asp

Listed below are the NZ contacts for further enquiries regarding firmware upgrades.

BCA – Tracker 2 & 3 units –contact BCA based in Christchurch via [email protected]

Mammut – Pulse and Element units – contact Gravity sports based in Christchurch via [email protected]

Ortovox – S1, S1+, 3+ units – contact Mountain Adventure based in Christchurch via [email protected]

Pieps – Pieps DSP units – contact Southern Approach based in Christchurch via [email protected]

http://www.avalanche.net.nz/Files/Recco-ortovox-rescuers-notice-ENG.pdf

http://beaconreviews.com/transceivers/Updating.asp






rESEarCh uSiNg CrOwd SOurCiNg TO uNdErSTaNd TravEl bEhaviOr iN avalaNChE TErraiN- // jOrdy hENdrikx / jErry jOhNSON

Jordy Hendrikx1 Jerry Johnson2,1

1 Snow and Avalanche Laboratory, Department of Earth Sci-ences, Montana State University,Bozeman, MT, USA.2 Political Science, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT, USA.

1. Introduction:Safe winter backcountry travel in hazardous terrain is a com-bination of education, experience, judgment, and technolo-gy. Detailed trip information that investigates the synergis-tic role of all factors in individual outings or over the course of a winter season are largely anecdotal or nonexistent. The lack of comprehensive data is problematic given the increas-ingly wide recognition of the human dimensions of decision- making in minimising risk during winter backcountry travel.

In an effort to mitigate risk associated with unstable snow-pack conditions and resultant avalanche accidents, ava-lanche field courses and other educational opportunities provide backcountry users with the snowpack assessment and terrain management skills. Skills are augmented and re-fined by the judgment that comes through experience. Evi-dence exists that education may play a less important role in avalanche risk mitigation than often assumed and may, in fact, provide a false sense of security to avalanche victims (Atkins 2000; McCammon 2004). Such studies typically rely on post hoc analysis of avalanche accident incident reports and tend to focus on accident features available at the acci-dent site - terrain features, snowpack analysis, weather, and hazard reports. Less common are witness reports, quality demographic data on victims as well as additional “human factors” such as decision-making processes, group dynam-ics, and terrain management procedures. These human fac-tors are increasingly recognised to be significant features of most accidents.

One method to collect these missing data before accidents happen is through the use of GPS tracking and post trip sur-veys that accompany each backcountry excursion. By doing so we can build a model of the complex travel and social dynamics inherent in winter backcountry travel. This arti-cle will present some results from our Northern hemisphere 2012/13 winter pilot study, outline our new, crowd-sourced methods, and present some preliminary data from the Northern Hemisphere 2013/14 winter season using crowd sourced data. We are hoping to obtain data from New Zea-land backcountry travelers this 2014 Winter

Jordy Hendrikx is a Kiwi who currently works at the Montana State University as Assistant Professor of Geography, and Director of Snow and Avalanche Laboratory. Along with his own research he currently overseas 9 Masters students involved in research topics spread from Montana, Alaska and Svalbard in Norway.

So this is your opportunity to participate! Please see the pan-el following thir artice to see how you can participate!

2. Background:Avalanches are high risk/low probability events dominated by incomplete information about risk and likelihood of a dan-gerous release. Along with snowpack assessment and other strategies, backcountry users utilise terrain and geographi-cal features to adapt to conditions and to mitigate risk due to uncertainty; avalanche education places great emphasis on the use and interpretation of such features. Slope aspect and angle are two relatively simple variables the backcountry traveler can use to minimise risk. It has been suggested by McCammon (2004) and others (Fredston, et al., 1994; Hae-geli, et al., 2010; Furman, et al., 2010) that the processes by which terrain features are managed may be a contributing

Above: Screenshot of SkiTracks GPS smartphone app


factor to accidents. Often, the decision making team is a small (2-4 persons) group of like minded individuals seeking to maximise their recreational value of time spent in the backcountry. In doing so, they may fall trap to multiple decision-making pathologies.

Global Positioning System (GPS) technology is potentially an effective tool for understanding how backcountry skies adapt their travel strategies to snowpack conditions. Such technology is widespread across industry and public safety agencies. We suggest here, when combined with post-trip surveys, it can be utilised for the analysis of travel patterns by backcountry skiers in potential avalanche terrain. Negative outcomes of poor decisions in these and similar settings, while rare, often result in personal injury or death. Accidents are often considered random and unexpected when, in fact, they may be more predictable than the literature would suggest.

3. Pilot Study Methods – Winter 2012/13:During the Winter of 2012/13 we enlisted a small group of volunteers located in Bozeman/Big Sky, Montana, USA to help us examine these issues. All were experienced backcountry skiers with high levels of avalanche expertise; many are ava-lanche professionals. As a result of this homogeneity of the group, statistical variation was minimal. The consequence is that results from this pilot study do not generalise to a larger population nor do standard statistical tests of significance apply.

Each volunteer completed a pre-season demographic survey, and was then issued with a handheld GPS (or used their own) and with a hard copy log book. They were then encouraged to track each backcountry ski trip with the GPS and to complete the logbook. The geospatial data was collected at the end of the trial and downloaded into the Geographic Information System (GIS) that allowed for the generation of terrain based summary statistics by overlaying these on to a 10m digital elevation model (DEM). The key terrain attributes we considered where: Speed, Duration, Slope, Aspect, Elevation and distance to ridge and trailhead. The second source of information was the use of a log book for recording demographic and psychographic data. The logbook operationalises variables cited by McCammon (2004) as being important to understand-ing failures of decision making by asking respondents about assessment strategies, group dynamics and decision making, and assessing items such as focus on the day’s goal and commitment. It also collected demographic data, equipment car-ried by the group, snowpack assessment, and outcomes for the day.

Figure 1. A schematic showing the flow of demographic, psychographic and spatial data to better understand decision mak-ing, where (A) is an example of a GPS track log (shown in blue) overlain on Google Earth; and (B) is an example output data from this track showing the distribution of slope angles travelled on this day; and (C) is an example page from the 2012/13 logbook (which was moved to an online survey in 2013/14).


4. Results and Discussion:4.1 Aggregate dataFor brevity, we will only present two relationships here. The first is based on slope angle and posted avalanche hazard (Figure 2), and the other is slope and our “goal” parameter (Figure 3), which is a proxy for the commitment heuristic (McCammon 2004). For a slightly more in-depth discussion of the results, please refer to our 2013 ISSW paper (Hendrikx et al., 2013)

Figure 2. Slope angle (°) for the median, 90th, 95th and 99th percentile of terrain travelled (y axis), plotted against posted avalanche hazard rating (x axis), coded; 1 for low, 2 for moderate and 3 for considerable.Figure 3. Slope angle (°) for the median, 90th, 95th and 99th percentile of terrain travelled (y axis), plotted against the pa-rameter “goal” (x axis), where a coded response to “Did your assessment of the snowpack affect the day’s goal?” with the response scale 1 = not at all, to 10 = very much.

Initial results from the 2012/13 pilot study indicate that there was: (1) A weak negative relationship between the steepest slopes skiers negotiated and the avalanche danger rating, and (2) Given a favorable avalanche hazard report, or assessment of local snow conditions, that skiers adjusted their goal upward – i.e. Their assessment of the snowpack affected the day’s goal, in an upwards (more steep) direction for the steepest part of their trip.

The findings presented in the two graphs (Figure 2 and 3) are examples and are open to interpretation, but provide a good starting point for discussion. Interpretation of the two graphs is likely more powerful when considered together. Where we suggest a weak negative relationship between the angle of slope skiers negotiated and the avalanche danger rating we should also consider how and when expert backcountry skiers make their decisions about where to ski. Often, these decisions are made before departing on the day’s tour (e.g. morning meeting / discussion at the trail head). Prior information withrespect to the decision point is missing in Figure 2. Based on the general trend in the data in Figure 3, it is possible that given a favorable avalanche hazard report, or assessment of local snow conditions, that skiers adjusted their goal upward – i.e. Their assessment of the snowpack affected the day’s goal, in an upwards / more steep direction for the steepest part of their trip.

4.2 Individual skier case studyIn addition to the analysis of the data in its aggregate format as shown above, we can also consider the travel behavior of one skier in more detail. For this analysis we selected one person’s tracks, from a number of different days, at different hazard levels. We then plotted the slopes angles (Figure 4) and aspects (Figure 5) as box plots for every part of their trip, under dif-ferent posted avalanche hazard conditions. All of tracks completed during low and considerable hazard were combined into two groups to permit comparison by posted hazard.When we consider these results, we can see that slope angle alone is only part of the story with respect to terrain manage-ment and decision making. In particular, the median slope angle used for days with a considerable hazard were actually higher, than those used for low hazard days (Figure 4). This might seem counter intuitive when considered in isolation, but when considered alongside the aspects used, we can start to see the reasons for this (Figure 5). The aspect data clearly shows that on low hazard days, they travelled on almost all aspect and half their time was on aspects between NE and SW. However on days with considerable hazard, their use of terrain was much more confined to between the ENE and ESE aspects. During the period of time that these tracks were collected, these aspects were the ones that were typically less loaded due to cross strip-ping from northerly winds.

Above: Figure2 Above: Figure 3


Figures 4 & 5 depicts the relationship between the posted avalanche danger rating from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center (i.e. the local avalanche forecaster center) for the day of the track (x axis) and slope angle (Figure 4) and Aspect (Figure 5) in ° from the GPS track (y axis). Box-plots show the median, the 25th and 75th percentile and maxi-mum range shown.

5. Next steps:Our findings to date clearly highlight the success of our meth-odologies. However our small pilot group was comprised of participants that were too homogenous with respect to the demographic and physiographic parameters. The homog-enous nature of this group limits the wide application and generalisation of our findings

To address this, for the Northern Hemisphere Winter of 2013/14 we launched a new, crowd sourced data collection campaign to expand this work and enable greater exploration (i.e. collect data from a more heterogeneous group – multi-ple locations, multiple skill levels, multiple travel strategies etc.). To achieve this, we used a smartphone application called SkiTracks to track people more easily and enable rapid sharing of their spatial data. Combined with this, we used a smartphone optimised survey tool to allow for easy and rapid completion of the daily post trip survey / logbook (rath-er than use a paper based logbook). Using this fully digital, smartphone based approach, we collected several hundred tracks from all around the World. We received tracks mainly from people in the Intermountain USA (Montana, Wyoming, Utah, Colorado, Idaho), but also received some from Alaska, Canada, Norway, Austria, France and Slovenia.

We would now like to encourage submission of tracks from New Zealand for the 2014 Winter! As an incentive, we have been generously provided with spot prizes from Southern Approach, the distributor for Black Diamond Equipment in New Zealand. Prizes will be awarded at random to complete entries (i.e. track and post-trip survey) that are submitted to this project. While we prefer participants to use the Ski-Tracks Application, due to the way the data is collected, for-matted and can easily be shared. Participants are very wel-come to use alternative tracking devices (e.g. Handheld GPS, GPS watch etc.). Please save and send as .GPX format to us via the [email protected] address.

Below: Figure 4 Below: Figure 5

For more information, FAQs, or to sign up as a participant please refer to the next page or go to: www.montana.edu/snowscience/tracks

Acknowledgements:We would like to thank all of our volunteers in the 2012/13 and 2013/14 seasons, that tirelessly tracked their ski tours and completed their daily logbooks, or online surveys to pro-vide us with the initial pilot data for this project. We are grateful to Black Diamond Equipment in the USA for spot prize donations for the 2013/14 season and we also want to thank Mazamas and Montana State University for research grants to support our pilot studies. Without this assistance this work would not have been possible.

References:Atkins, D., 2000. Human factors in avalanche accidents. Pro-ceedings of the 2000 International Snow Science Workshop (pp.46-51), Big Sky, MT, USA.

Fredston, J., Fessler, D., & Tremper, B., 1994. The human factor: Lessons for avalanche education. Proceedings of the 1994 International Snow Science Workshop (pp.473–487). Snowbird, UT, USA.

Furman, N., Shooter, W., Schumann,S. 2010. The Roles of Heuristics, Avalanche Forecast, and Risk Propensity in the Decision Making of Backcountry Skiers. Leisure Sciences. Vol. 32, Iss.5, 453-469.

Haegeli, P., Haider,W., Longland, M., & Beardmore, B., 2010. Amateur decision making in avalanche terrain with and with-out a decision aid: A stated choice survey. Natural Hazards, 52(1): 185–209

Hendrikx, J., Johnson, J. and Southworth, E., 2013. Under-standing Travel Behavior in Avalanche Terrain: A New Ap-proach. Proceedings of the International Snow Science Workshop, October 7-11, 2013, Grenoble, France. (http://www.montana.edu/wwwes/facstaff/hendrikx.htm)

McCammon, I., 2004. Heuristic Traps in Recreational Ava-lanche Accidents: Evidence and Implications. Avalanche News, No. 68, Spring, 10.


www.montana.edu/snowscience/tracks

www.montana.edu/snowscience/tracks


Understanding travel behavior in avalanche terrain: A crowd sourced approach

Overview: This project aims to collect GPS location information and survey responses from backcountry skiers and riders to better understand what types of terrain decision we make. Our focus is on backcountry skiers and riders of all abilities and experience. You need not be an expert backcountry skier to participate in this research.

1. Sign‐up to participate

www.surveymonkey.com/s/PreseasonParticipantSurvey

2. Download “SkiTracks” by CoreCoders

3.Track your tripsSend your GPX file to: [email protected]

4. Automatic reply Autoreply from

[email protected] link to post‐trip survey

5.Complete a short, post‐trip survey

www.surveymonkey.com/s/daytripsurvey

Step 1 and 2 only need to be completed once

Steps 3-5 need to be completed for every trip you want to submit to us.

More information:

If you want to learn more about our project aims, research questions and approaches, please visit our web pages:www.montana.edu/snowscience/tracks

Or scan our QR code:

If you are interested in taking part in this project, then follow the easy steps below:

Step 1 and 2 only need to be completed once.

Steps 3-5 need to be completed for every trip you want to submit to us.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.corecoders.skitracks&hl=en https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/ski-tracks-gps-track-recorder/id365724094?mt=8


rESEarCh - COrNiCE fOrmaTiON // SimON mOrriS

Simon Morris is the Snow Safety Research Officer at Porter Ski Area. Here he explains techniques used and results found from his work in mapping cornice formations at Crystal Valley.Cornice formations at Porters Ski Area are very uncommon and primarily found only in one of our avalanche paths. This zone is approximately 80m wide and only loads from the in-frequent easterly winds. On the other hand, cornice forma-tions in Crystal Valley are common along the ridgeline. This is seen in the number of cornice releases between the two areas. In the four years of observed data from Crystal Valley we have already recorded more cornice fall events than in the last ten years at Porters Ski Area.

As part of the expansion of the current ski area it is essen-tial to investigate and understand the cornice formation in Crystal Valley. The methodology will be to survey the cornice formations over a number of years therefore allowing us to analyse what is normal, and what is unusual cornice forma-tion. This information would then assist us to determine when control work maybe necessary, assist with the accu-rate placement of the Remote Avalanche Control System, determining areas of significant snowdrift, assist with calcu-lating the potential mass of avalanches within an avalanche path and assist with the placement of the upper mountain infrastructure (e.g. snow fences, ski lift stations, ski trails and weather stations).

Winter 2012In the winter of 2012 we began mapping the Leading edge of the cornice formation in Crystal Valley. The cornice forma-tions along the ridgeline are not your usual cornice forma-tion. The Roof and Leading edge of the cornice will typically form horizontally at the same height or just slightly higher than the ridgeline, therefore producing a very large Roll face. This Roll face is naturally very steep between 60° and 80°, and usually over 4 or 5m high.

The first winter we manually measured every 10m along the ridgeline, then measuring the distance between the ridge-line and the Leading edge of the cornice. After completing the first survey, several key problems became apparent very quickly. Doing it manually was very time consuming and re-quired a minimum of two people to be efficient, the data provided only a coarse sampling rate of the width of the cornice formation, and resurveying the same locations was not repeatable hence making comparing datasets difficult. In addition, this dataset did not provide us with any snow depths to calculate the snow mass of the cornice formation.

Winter 2013In 2013 a decision was made to use GPS surveying tech-nique to map the leading edge of the cornice formation. Two Trimble R10 GNSS antennas and a Trimble TSC3 controller were hired for the survey. One of the Trimble R10 anten-nas was setup as a GPS base station and the other antenna was setup as a roving unit with the Trimble TSC3 Controller. This system of a base station and a roving unit is called Real

Time Kinematic satellite navigation. The base station sends correctional information out to the roving unit to enhance the precision of position data in real-time. This GPS setup provided us accurate positioning of less than 0.01m in the horizontal and less than 0.04m in the vertical.

In September, the cornice formations in Crystal Valley were surveyed with the GPS. A single positioning point was re-corded with any significant change in angle or direction along the Leading edge of the cornices, this worked out to be roughly a point every 4m. This data was then downloaded into Trimble Business Center and analysed with our ‘Light Detection and Ranging’ (LiDAR) terrain data. LiDAR data has a typical vertical accuracy of 0.3m. After examining our Li-DAR data it was determined to have a vertical accuracy of 0.12m. This enabled us to calculate snow depths from our LiDAR data to an accuracy of ±6cm.

ResultsThree primary cornice formation zones were surveyed (Zone 1, length 445 m; Zone 2 length 323 m; Zone 3, length 250 m). In the first zone an average cornice width of 5.0m with a maximum width of 9.0m was recorded. Snow depths along the Leading edge of the cornice ranged between 0.4m and 4.6m, with an average depth of 2.6m. The estimated mass and volume of this cornice was calculated at 1,458t and 3,240m³ respectively.

In the second zone an average cornice width of 9.1m with a maximum width of 13.6m was recorded. Snow depths along the Leading edge of the cornice range between 1.0m and 8.6m with an average depth of 5.2m. The estimated mass and volume of this cornice was calculated at 2,635t and 5,856m³ respectively. The third zone data has yet to be analysed.

At the end of the 2013 survey it was surprising to find that the cornice formation had grown out from the ridgeline to a maximum width of 13.64m and up to 8.62m deep. This was surprising as the 2013 winter was considered to have below average snowfall and less wind than usual. It is doubtful, but if an avalanche involved all the snow in the zone 2 cornice, there would be enough mass to produce a size 3 avalanche.

Winter 2014The plan for the upcoming winter is to install a Real Time Kinematic satellite surveying system for the whole of the winter. This will allowed us to track the growth of the cor-nice formation throughout the winter and to produce detail 3D models of it. It is also intended to investigate the snow densities throughout the cornice to improve the accuracy of the snow mass values.


Above: A 3D view of a 270 m section of the Crystal Valley ridgeline. The different colours in the bar indicate the total mass of snow for each 4.5 m section. The width of the bar indicates the width of the cornice that was between 3.5 m and 13.5 m wide. The greatest mass of snow is found in the lowest part of the saddle as indicated by the orange and red colours. Contour lines are every 5 m.Photo: Simon Morris

Right: Setting up the GPS roving unit before beginning surveying the cornice formation in Crystal Valley, in the back-ground of the photograph you can see the GPS base station installed on a tripod. Photo: Simon Morris

rESEarCh - pErCEpTiON Of avalaNChE riSk // jErEmy bEll

A recent graduate from the University of Otago, Jeremy Bell, has recently begun a Masters of Science in avalanche risk mitigation, in conjunction with Dr Nicolas Cullen (Department of Geography, University of Otago). Jeremy’s focus will be on the perception of avalanche risk and the preparedness of users of avalanche terrain. Over the next few winter seasons, information regarding the numbers of people using back-country areas, along with associated demographics, will be collected. Information will also be gathered about the levels of education among these users, and how they use the information that is given to them, such as avalanche reports and warnings. From these data the preparedness of users will be ascer-tained and strategies to reduce avalanche risk in the future will be considered. A focus of the research will be to ascertain what back-country users do with information that is given to them, and how this is related to their level of education and/or experience.

If people are not prepared for the risk associated with the backcountry terrain that they are accessing, then a key ques-tion that needs to be asked is why? It is hoped that this work will help identify the relative importance of issues related to the cost and weight of gear, lack of knowledge, lack of awareness of risk, peer pressure, careless behaviour, over-exuberance, ignorance and/or over-familiarity with condi-tions. By obtaining information about these different con-trols it is anticipated this research will offer new insights into user behaviour in hazardous terrain, which may help in developing strategies to reduce risk.


rESEarCh - SNOwpaCk mOdElliNg // SaSCha bEllairE

Towards a coupled weather- snow cover forecasting system for the New Zealand Southern Alps Sascha Bellaire

1, Marwan Katurji

2, Andrew Hobman

3, To-

bias Schulmann2

1Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics, University of Innsbruck, Tyrol, Austria

2Center of Atmospheric Research, Dept. of Geography, Uni-versity of Canterbury, New Zealand

3New Zealand Mountain Safety Council, Christchurch, New Zealand

Abstract: The Southern Alps are located in an extreme maritime climate with high precipitation amounts and strong winds causing heavy winter storms with exceptional deposition. In addition, frequent rain- on- snow events can cause widespread avalanching making avalanche warning a challenging task. Avalanche warning requires a) knowledge of the state of the snow cover and b) an accurate weather forecast. However, performing snow profiles or stability

tests is time consuming and often not possible. Addition-ally, weather forecasting and especially forecasting snow precipitation for complex alpine terrain is a challenging task. This study aims to provide decision support for avalanche forecasters by coupling a snow cover model (SNOWPACK) with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The open- source Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) is well suited for small- scale (sub- kilometer) weather dy-namics and was used in this study. NWP- modeling was per-formed for one winter season with a horizontal resolution of 1 km for the Craigieburn Range. The spatial resolution of the NWP- model was enhanced to sub- kilometer resolutions to investigate more detailed and challenging case studies. The SNOWPACK output was compared to observed snow profiles and was found to be in good agreement with the ob-servations in terms of snow heights, new snow amounts and general stratigraphy. This initial study serves as a precursor towards an operational coupled SNOWPACK- ARPS tool for the New Zealand avalanche warning service, which could be easily adapted to other regions worldwide.

Above: Verifying snowpack modelling predictions in the field. Photo: Editor


2014 lifT dEvElOpmENT aT ThE rEmarkablES // jim yOuNg

Many people in the avalanche community have heard about the developments at The Remarkables over the summer. The expansion into Curvy Basin marks the biggest changes to the ski area since the opening of Shadow Basin in 1986. The new lift spans 1.4km and has 290m of vertical rise from a base at 1610m unloading at 1900m add-ing approximately 250 acres of skiable terrain.

Jim Young is the assistant snow safety officer at the Remarkables ski area. Here he describes the new developments and what will be an interesting new era at the resort.

The terrain predominately faces N-NW with start zones between 33 and 42 degrees which load predominately from SW-SE winds. Maximum recorded avalanche angles (ß) were measured off maximum run outs of historic avalanches at the Remarka-bles. This produced an average beta angle of 27.5 degrees. These were used to estimate avalanche path length in Curvy Basin although this should be used with caution as full path avalanche cycles may not have occurred at the Remarkables within the ski areas historic timeframe. Using anecdotal and observed data, areas of this previously backcountry terrain have historically performed up to size 3 in natural cycles and with triggered avalanches up to size 2.

Throughout the years various sets of data have been collected and collated to form an outline of how this terrain will be man-aged as part of our current snow safety operation. In keeping with the theme of all avalanche control at Remarks, we must tour/boot pack in order to access the terrain for explosives mitigation and ski cutting. This keeps us fit and on our toes as we pick safe routes on control days. This of course is often time and labour intensive.

The new control routes have under gone preliminary research to determine ideal safe zones, shot placements and loading patterns for a control day but have yet to be tested ‘in anger’. The type of weather event that is likely to produce large slab avalanches in this terrain, will also deny safe access for mitigation during storm cycles. Passive mitigation measures by way of closure is inevitable.

Operational pressure to be open on a ‘powder day’ could mean a future increase in alternate means of explosive delivery such as heli bombing or avalauncher. With a country wide projectile shortage for the avalauncher and inclement weather affecting helicopter operations, this has in some respects put us back to the drawing board and discussions around a bomb tram system are in progress.

Above: Indicative Curvy basin start zones Photo: Remarkables Ski Patrol


As with any development there are bound to be lessons learnt and new procedures innovated as we adapt our pro-gramme to suit. The issue of increased backcountry use has yet to be tested. The Doolans and Wye Creek drainages are popular with ski tourers and climbers alike and the new lift turns a previous 45 min skin into a 5 min boot pack.

Purely by numbers one could be drawn to the conclusion that an increase in back country users will lead to more back country incidents. Historically there have been incidents and near misses almost every year without fail in these are-as. The ease of access could lead to a ‘sidecountry’ mental-ity which has been observed near many ski areas worldwide with quick and easy access to backcountry terrain.

As a professional group we encourage interaction with pub-lic regarding avalanche conditions and provide the moun-tain safety council’s daily forecast on our bulletin board in an effort to foster a culture of education and responsibility

with in our backcountry community. Access through the normal routes previously enjoyed by ski tourers now falls into our controlled terrain so managing and respecting closures needs to be done with care from both parties to ensure everybody’s safety and enjoyment on the day.

Now all we need is some snow to kick off the biggest year at Remarks, see you up there.

Above: The view from above the new Curvy Basintop station looking across towards lake Alta Photo: NZSKI.com

Above: Backcountry areas being enjoyed in the Canterbury region. Photo: Editor


applyiNg aN avalaNChE fOrECaST - ‘lOCaliSiNg’ // pENNy gOddard

Hey- your forecast was wrong!

Nobody ever says this to my face, but I can be pretty sure that sometimes people think it. After a few years of self-doubt and worry, I eventually came to realise that people may be misinterpreting the intention of the public avalanche bulletin.

Unlike the weather lady, who says precisely when and where storms are going to arrive, regional avalanche forecasters generalise conditions across large regions. We do not say “there will be a naturally-triggered size 2 slab at 3pm on the south face of Mt Hutt today”: that would require an unobtainable level of precision. Instead we say “danger in general is at 4 out of 5 for a certain elevation band. We’ll colour this red (or call it high)”. But before you start thinking that regional fore-casting is akin to colouring-in, there are good reasons why the avalanche advisory is generalised.

So what about you? Have you ever read the Mountain Safety Council’s (MSC) Backcountry Avalanche Advisory (BAA), then gone out only to discover conditions seem somewhat (or maybe quite) different to what you ex-pected? Is your first instinct to call the forecaster a fruit loop?

Penny is an avalanche forecaster at the Canadian Avalanche Centre, author of “Avalanche Awareness in the New Zealand Backcountry” (2nd edition out now! Click here to order), ISSW avalanche diva, and NZMGA ski guide. She’s also learning the art of toddler wrangling.

Above: screenshot of NZ avalanche centre’s forecast page

Below: Author Penny Goddard, and fellow guide Mike Roberts surveying a wide vista likely to contain varying conditions. Photo: Gordie Smith

?There could be several reasons why this situation crops up:

1. The regional vs local conundrum. Let’s say regionally, on average, avalanche danger is posted as moderate. That means that somewhere in that region it’ll probably be low and somewhere it’s likely to be considerable. Bear in mind that some forecast regions cover several mountain ranges with a serious east-west spread. It’s inevitable that there will be vari-ability across the region. The forecaster has to choose one descriptor and usually opts for the average condition.

2. The nowcast vs the forecast. The regional forecaster’s job is to gather all the available information, sort it for rel-evance and summarise it (creating a ‘nowcast’ or snapshot of current conditions). Next, based on their best interpretation of the weather forecast, they predict how conditions are likely to change in the near future (creating a forecast). It can be easy to misinterpret the BAA, as it is predicting change that is forecast to come, for example, a developing windslab problem which might not have built up in the morning, but can be a significant hazard by afternoon. If you’re out in the morning, you might consider the forecast ‘wrong’.

http://www.mountainsafety.org.nz/Resources/resource_list.asp

http://www.mountainsafety.org.nz/Resources/resource_list.asp


Add in compounding factors like the weather forecast being off (Jim’s swooping southerly change is running 12 hours late, for example), a lack of valid data to go on (everyone can help here by contributing observations), local weather effects, and the forecaster’s inbuilt biases (we all have these and can’t completely eliminate them, even if we try) and you have plenty of reasons why the most appropriate product is a generalised avalanche conditions advisory.

So what is a BAA enthusiast to do? Well, start by understanding exactly what information the BAA is and isn’t providing. It is a very useful tool, as someone else has done the hard work of trawling through all the available information, applying their expertise, and converting this into a digestible summary and outlook of avalanche danger. However, by its nature, it describes average conditions across large regions. Where the worst conditions are likely to be found will be shown in the icons (showing elevation bands and aspects) and in the descriptive text. Pay close attention to these. Conditions are likely to be better in the areas not included in the icons.

The other part of the BAA to rest your eyes on is the timeframe. When was it issued, and what is the forecast period? It’s also useful to remind yourself of the avalanche danger descriptors from time to time. What does moderate danger actually mean? Can there still be avalanches when danger is low?

Professionals and amateurs alike all need to constantly assess and reassess the conditions they have in front of them. How close those conditions resemble the BAA forecast or your own previous assessments will give you more or less confidence that you have identified the lurking dangers in your local area. If they appear significantly different (worse), then a conservative approach is needed.

The MSC run avalanche courses throughout the winter and spring which incorporate the details within the BAA. Their expert tutors lead you through a systematic way to make safe decisions based on reliable information. There are two levels, a one and a half day introductory course and a four day Backcountry course. If you haven’t done one, I’d recommend that you and your touring partners signup this season.

Click here for course dates and locations

Above: Students enrolled through CHILL on an avalanche course learning what is below the surface. Photo: Anna Keeling

The more training and experience you have, the better able you will be to localise the BAA to your particular backcountry stomping ground. You’ll be able to recognise if a particular layer of concern in the snowpack is reactive in your part of the re-gion. You’ll be able to understand why and where avalanche danger is likely to be most elevated, and where the safer options lie. You’ll be familiar with the local effects of the weather and its interaction with specific terrain, and how this influences the snowpack differently from place to place.

For those with less experience, fall back on those obvious clues of avalanche conditions: recent avalanche activity, cracking or whumfing, new snow or rain, wind-loading or rapid changes in temperature. If you encounter any of these signs, you can safely assume that the avalanche danger is elevated and a cautious approach would be a good idea.

From your friendly fruit loop -

http://www.avalanche.net.nz/Files/Avalanche-Education-2014-small.pdf


QuiCk STudy Of SNOwpaCk: vOCabulary fOr pOlE prObE TESTS aNd SlOpE CuTTiNg// kim graNT

Kindly reprinted with permission from the author and editor of ‘The Avalanche Review’(December 2013 edition).

This article is dedicated to Theo Meiner and his thirst for knowledge and his desire to educate. In it, I will elaborate on a new vernacular that clearly describes pole probing and varying degrees of loose snow avalanches.

Backcountry ski use has been on a constant increase for the past 40 years with new user groups exploding the number of winter travelers in the mountains. Mechanised ski travel has become more popular with more user groups, especially skiers and snowboarders. Backcountry travelers are now making more than one run a day increasing the need to communicate conditions with as many field observations as possible, thereby giving the users a better understanding of surface stability.

Kim has been ski guiding and patrolling for 15 years mainly in Alaska and Colorado. When not working she can be found adventuring to far away places with her friends for kayaking or skiing. She currently works at Points North Heli Adventures and Silverton Mountain.

Above: Matt Belford skicut testing. Chugach, AK 2012. Photo: Jessica Baker


The use of machines to assist in the uphill ascent has turned us into upside down mountaineers and taken away our ability to evaluate the snow at a pace that gives us time to weigh our decisions one step at a time. Hans Gmoser once wrote about the difference and speed of evaluation of snow and slope stability and how different heli-skiing is than the traditional speed of mountaineering (Gmoser, 1976 click here for link to this article). All of these methods of quick snow observations and field evaluations will evolve as the level of activity and the numbers of use demand better methods and communications. The activity has been created before the descriptive language developed to describe the environment and methods used to analyse conditions and stability.

The Alaska Rendezvous Heli Guides (ARG) work in an environment where there is a need to communicate information regarding snowpack structure in a quick and concise way. The ARG guides have developed a method to rapidly and accurately communicate more information about the snow surface structure and its reactivity to ski cutting and slope stability.

Ski pole probe tests reveal a lot about snowpack structure and are commonly used to identify changes in hardness. These hardness changes, along with variations in snow texture, impact stability. Pole probing to differentiate between these layers allows skiers to use the ski pole as a penetrometer. A common length of a ski pole is 120cm and enables one to get a sense of the structure correlating to the depth of the deformation caused by a skier or a

snowboarder on a slope [Föhn, 1987]. Pole probes also help immensely in determining varying amounts of spatial variability [Schweizer et al., 2008]. For example, probing with a ski pole can quickly tell a person that a wind slab caps the top of a slope before rolling over into softer snow farther downslope. Of course, ski pole probing cannot detect thin weak layers such as surface hoar.

At ARG, the guides probe using both the handle of the ski pole as well as the basket end. The basket provides some resistance and to the guides, becomes roughly representative of ski penetration. The handle end, offering less resistance, is more representative of boot penetration. The guides have noticed that these depths correlate. Backcountry travelers also gain this type of information as they skin up or make their first ski cut across the top of a slope. While skinning or traversing a skier or snowboarder is constantly using the ski poles in tandem with ski penetration, conveying the idea of how much impact a skier or snowboarder might have on the snowpack as they travel along the slope. This information helps backcountry travelers identify how consolidated the snow is and the variations of hardness as well what layers exist. The person can then use the ski pole to probe deeper than ski penetration to further examine the snowpack.

Pole probe tests are commonly used among practitioners to get a sense of snowpack structure. However, not much nomenclature exists to clearly communicate the results of what is determined through pole probing. Practitioners sometimes refer to the snowpack as being positive or negative or upside-down or right-side-up when speaking about the stability of a snowpack. It is similar to when practitioners used to refer to shear planes as being dirty or clean before such terms became formalised as shear quality or fracture character [Greene et al., 2010].

For the guides, a right-side-up snowpack is defined as snow hardness increasing as depth increases. Snow hardness is defined as the resistance to penetration that has the dimension of force [Pielmeier and Schneebeli, 2002]. At ARG, a right-side-up snowpack that becomes impenetrable at 45cm, for example, is expressed as PPRU45I. The ‘I’ represents an impenetrable layer. If one were to express PPRU110 solely, the results are interpreted to mean the snowpack increased in hardness up to 110cm and the practitioner did not encounter an impenetrable layer.

Above: Matt Belford probing to quantify a quick study. Photo: Jessica Baker

http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/objects/issw-1976-252-259.pdf

http://arc.lib.montana.edu/snow-science/objects/issw-1976-252-259.pdf


An upside-down snowpack is defined as one in which a change in hardness becomes inconsistent as depth increases. An upside-down snowpack in which the hardness decreases at 60cms, for example, is expressed as PPUD60. The first weak layer discovered is the only one represented in the acronym.

After a day in the field, ARG protocol calls for completing a Guide Daily. This is how the guides collect and catalog manual snow and weather observations. For many years, a checkmark had become sufficient for filling out the pole probe section indicating that one or many were performed throughout the day. However, this gives very little information regarding the snowpack. With the new system, the guides can now quickly and easily describe the results of pole probe tests to include depths of strong and weak layers, changes in hardness and the consistencies of these pole probes as well as information regarding spatial variability.

Slope cut testing- Experienced practitioners are familiar with slope cut testing [Greene et al., 2010] and know that it is an important tool in discerning valuable information regarding snowpack stability. In ARG’s region of Alaska’s Chugach Mountains guides deal with a variety of snow conditions. One of the most prevalent is loose snow, which is referred to as sluff. For guides at ARG it is important to quantify the amounts of loose snow (sluff) that one deals with. It is recurrent and exists on almost every ski turn on almost every run. Sometimes it occurs solely on the surface and travels little distance with little speed. Other times it may entrain snow from deeper layers and travel great distances with a great amount of speed and destructive force. It may also exhibit characteristics ranging between these two extremes. It is valuable for guides to communicate these results in a distinct and expeditious manner. It is now common practice for guides at ARG to express the term Avalanche Loose and its data code SCL [Greene et al., 2010] to include a qualitative estimate of the amount of loose snow (sluff). The amount of loose snow (sluff) is categorised using the numbers 1-5.

For example: SCL1- Minimal, loose snow (sluff) stops on top of slope and entrains only surface snow.SCL2- Loose snow (sluff) stops mid-slope. May entrain surface snow only or include deeper layers. SCL3- Loose snow (sluff) travels to, or almost to, slope transition.SCL4- Loose snow (sluff) travels past slope transition with speed and lots of volume.SCL5- Loose snow (sluff) travels to slope run out with speed and lots of volume.

Extrapolating information from pole probe tests to possible slope cut results is a rudimentary method used by heli-ski guides to negotiate their group’s descent. With so many spatial variables, elevations, aspects, terrain features, and snow textures, conducting full data pits or even test pits at all these junctures can be impossible and require more time than one has available. For the guides, this language expounds on common practice and has become a way of implementing data codes used to quickly and easily decipher and communicate information regarding snowpack structure. Practitioners use their knowledge and skills to evaluate snow conditions and snow stability. These pole probe and slope cut tests are only an additional tool to help make decisions based upon snowpack structure. Of course, one cannot see crystal type and size or detect the presence of surface hoar.

As ski guides, ski patrollers, snow scientists and other practitioners, the more efficiently we comprehend, compute and communicate all that occurs in our environment the better and safer we can be. What we do with that information and how we move through the mountains is ultimately the thing that will always bring us home safely. Therefore a common language has been developed over the years for snow professionals to concisely communicate observations regarding the snowpack. This language is fully described in “Observation guidelines for avalanche programs in the United States.”

Above: Matt Belford skicut testing the surface layers. Chugach, AK 2012. Photo: Jessica Baker


puTTiNg ThE vErNaCular iNTO praCTiSE: pOlE prObE TESTS aNd SlOpE CuTTiNg// jESSiCa bakEr

Former Big Mountain Freesking Champion turned mountain guide and snow scientist, and founder of Ski Divas www.skidivas.com, Jessica Baker, currently resides in Jackson, WY. She continues to guide heli-skiing in Alaska’s Chugach, and can recently lay claim to becoming a Mom to a beautiful baby girl (aka future ripper).

How can you use this in the field?

The whole point of this study/techniques for the field (and resulting paper) was to put in place a language to communicate common quick observations, and share them with our peers in the field efficiently and quickly to help us make decisions. This was especially necessary for heli-ski guiding in the Chugach mountain range where we first started using the vernacular. While heli-skiing Alaska’s Chugach it is not always practical to dig a pit on every single run every single day. Often we will dig several pits one day and then visit the same area several times over the next few days without digging another pit if the weather has been relatively stable and there is no known deep slab instability. However, to continue gathering data for the area we are skiing (and check for anomalies), we use our poles for probing, and ski cut reaction to continue to monitor the snowpack. In the past we didn’t have efficient and concise language to communicate our findings to one another, radio chatter had to be kept to a minimum, and the next helicopter pick up was just minutes away, leaving little time for communication. By giving a simple language to pole probing and ski cut results, we have been able to disseminate important information to our fellow guides, while keeping clients on the move.

I believe this has a practical application for many types of backcountry users. Often people are skiing multiple laps in an area and will not be digging a pit every time. Some users may forego a pit altogether and opt to use pole probes and ski cuts instead (depending on conditions, although I always recommend at least one pit). But some information is better than no information! Being able to convey a simple synopsis of the snow density below your feet (i.e. Right side up or Upside down, and how far your pole was able to penetrate) as well as how much sluffing or surface of the snow moves upon ski cut can be very valuable to you and your backcountry ski partners (*Please note: these tests do NOT account for deep slab instability, and a full data pit is recommended to assess this hazard).

In addition, I believe the vernacular we use makes recording your daily backcountry observations more efficient and quantitative. Here is a quick example…

Let’s say I dug a pit in the area earlier in the day, and now I am considering skiing another slope adjacent to the one I had dug the pit on. If I were crossing out onto that slope, I would first begin probing with my pole as I moved along (every two to five feet) to test density and any potential “upside down” situation that may be at hand.

If I got upside down results (eg. PPUD65) I would be concerned that my weakest layer is at approximately 65 cm, and then I would most likely dig a pit to determine exactly where my weakest layer(s) lie and further test to see how reactive the layer(s) is in CT and ECT tests.

Above: Jessica Baker compares hand hardness to pole probe results in a snowpit. Photo: Jessica Baker


If I get a right side up result with my pole probe PPRU45I, I may continue forward to make my first ski cut. The pole probe in this case would tell me that I potentially have up to 45 cm of looser snow/less dense snow before I hit the impenetrable snow at 45 cms, and that my ski cut may cut out that much snow potentially.

If upon ski cut I get minimal sluffing (SCL1), then I know that even less snow was entrained than the top 45 cms and that I feel relatively confident skiing this slope. If on the other hand I ski cut the slope and I get a result of SCL4, I would then reassess my desire to ski the slope and either avoid unmitigated loose snow, or ski a different slope.

The beauty of this system is that I can call out my pole probe results and ski cut results to my ski partner (or over the radio to other practitioners in the field), and they can get a “play-by-play” visual of the superficial snowpack while I am testing it, without interruption.

There is much work to be done to correlate pole probing to actual density and hand hardness. And there is more to be done to correlate loose snow avalanche activity upon ski cut with pit stability tests and week layer recognition. However, by using this vernacular we have started to use a more calculated system that helps us convey more information in a shorter period of time, allowing for quicker and more informed decision-making in the field.

Jessica has a warm place in her heart for New Zealand, she studied Geology at the University of Otago in Dunedin from 1997-1998. She also attributes the start of her alpine career to her time in New Zealand’s Southern Alps. She hopes to return again soon

Public Avalanche Seminars are happening around the country. Here is Queenstown Regional forecaster Chris Cochrane at one of last winters events. They are on again soon down in the southern lakes as part of Queenstown’s Winterfest, the NZ Mountain Film Festival and more...

for details follow our Facebook page for dates, venues, and times Click to go to>>

PUBLIC AVALANCHESEMINARSERIES

https://www.facebook.com/NewZealandAvalancheCentre

https://www.facebook.com/NewZealandAvalancheCentre


avalaNChE SEarCh dOgS iN NZ // karyN hEald

Karyn Heald Robertson has been involved in the ski industry for over 20 years and with avalanche dogs for about 13 years. She has trained 2 operational dogs and has been the national avalanche coordinator for Land SAR Search Dogs for the last 5 years. From her base in Methven, Karyn shares with us some facts about avalanche dogs and where they fit into the search and rescue (SAR) process.

Why do we spend so much time, energy and resources training avalanche dogs in New Zealand when the likelihood of a live rescue is so low?

Avalanche search dogs are just one tool available to find lost persons buried in an avalanche. However, probe teams are about the only other option to find avalanche victims not wearing transceivers or a recco reflector. Also, as all avalanche rescue research and training courses show - speed is such a vital factor in avalanche rescue - dogs must always be considered as they can move so quickly over snow.

If I look at it from a personal perspective, if I or anyone else close to me was buried in an avalanche, I’d want every possible resource on the go. Every year more people are heading out beyond the safety net of the ski areas, and while there are great education messages offered to backcountry users, there are still people going without basic safety equipment. The convenience of these ‘sidecountry’ areas will always lure people with the promise of some fresh turns, and it is just a matter of time before we have a rescue scenario involving people trapped without transceivers.

To quote operational handler Dave McKinley’s recent comment - “ Hard yakka all the way but if just one dog is successful just once in your lifetime you’ve made it worthwhile.”

That says it all - all the people involved in Land SAR Avalanche Search Dogs give up a a huge amount of hours and effort to train for what we all hope will never happen. BUT.

I can’t imagine anything better than this view if I was buried in the snow minus my transceiver - how about you?

Above: Matt Gunn and the now retired ‘Blizzid’ uncover their target. Photo: Rhonda van Rooden


What makes a dog an ideal search tool to find hidden targets under the snow?

Dogs have a VERY keen sense of smellThey have 220 million scent receptors. We have only 5 million.Avalanche dogs use airborne scent to locate people buried under the snow. To a well trained avalanche dog, human scent in the snow is like a red flag. It comes up through the snow in a cone and the dog will strike some part of the scent as it runs over or past it.

SpeedA well-trained avalanche dog is equivalent to approximately 20 people searching on foot, and can search the same area in an eighth of the time. One dog can search one hectare in approximately 30 minutes - it takes 20 foot searchers 4 hours to search the same area with probes (covering about 2.5% of the total area that the dog could cover). During a fine search, one dog can cover that same hectare in 1-2 hours where it would take 20 searchers 20 hours to cover the same area.

As most of you know, avalanche debris can be tricky to travel across especially when there are large blocks. In this case, four legs are definitely superior to two and it’s often a challenge to keep up with your dog when conditions are difficult. On that note, it is essential for the handler to maintain visual contact with the dog to observe both obvious and sometimes very subtle changes in the body language of the dog. That’s why avalanche dog handlers are such fine examples of superior fitness...

Above: Courtney Wiedel in full ‘Travolta’ pose and his operational dog Ernie from Mt Hutt. Photo: Rhonda van Rooden

There are currently 12 operational avalanche teams with all but one dog based in the South Island. We are currently working on our succession planning particularly as many of our dogs (and handlers!) get older - did I say that? I mean more experienced...Within Land SAR Search Dogs there are also 16 operational wilderness teams with a good spread across the country and one of the current aims of our volunteer association is to look at dual trained dogs.

Currently Anna Easthope is training her operational avalanche dog in wilderness area search in order to provide another valuable SAR resource in the Wanaka area and, providing the handlers have the appropriate SAR skills, there is no reason why more dogs cannot be trained to search across multiple disciplines.

Our operational contact lists are always updated on the official Land SAR Search Dog website:http://searchdogs.co.nz/operational-teams - it’s a good idea to be aware of which teams are current as non operational dogs must not be deployed. The only exception to this is when a novice qualified team is closest and can be deployed while an operational team is on the way.

http://searchdogs.co.nz/operational-teams


TABLE BELOW SHOWING: current operational avalanche search dog teams

Handlers name Dog AreaPhil Couch Ice Ruapehu - Turoa

Rob Teasdale - Advanced Op Ben / Indy Methven - Mt Hutt

Dan Kennedy Ayla Methven - Mt Hutt

Courtney Wiedel - Advanced Op Ernie Methven - Mt Hutt

Dave McKinley Simba Twizel

Brendan Kearns - Advanced Op Millie Wanaka - Treble Cone

Matt Gunn Rocket Wanaka - Treble Cone

Andy Wardell Tuki Wanaka - Treble Cone

Callum Grant Zeffer Wanaka - Treble Cone

Anna Easthope Ra Wanaka - Cardrona

Brent MacDonald Honi Queenstown - The Remarkable

We hold two training camps early season plus an annual national assessment. All dogs must be reassessed each year and in addition to our Land SAR Search Dog assessor team, the NZ Police Dog Section senior trainers attend and assess each team. The relationship between Land SAR Search Dogs and the NZ Police Dog Section is invaluable; they have an incredible amount of training knowledge and are generous in sharing that with us – in turn they have confidence in the way that we work. When civilian dogs are needed in an emergency, the Police must know that they will be able to do the job and therefore all operational teams must be signed off by them at a national level.

Information for deploying an avalanche search dog: Search dog mobilisation should be directed through the New Zealand Police, either local or by the 111 system - if however the dogs and handlers are deployed by other means, then the NZ Police should be notified as soon as possible thereafter. Each area has an avalanche first response plan with specific variations for the deployment of dogs dependent on geographic resources.

Other things to remember:When dogs are to be used at an incident site it should be attempted to locate landing and equipment sites downwind from the areas to be searched, to prevent unwanted odours drifting across the search areas. Operational dogs are trained to search in pairs and amongst personnel already on the debris site, but reducing site contamination increases the likelihood of a faster result.

Dogs must be summoned early. Dogs should be called while there is still a chance of finding the victim or victims alive - not after all else has failed.. Don’t forget, dogs can work equally well in the dark. Unless trained personnel and dogs are on site within a very short time following an avalanche incident (where victims are not wearing transceivers) it’s quite likely that search results will be to find a deceased person. Even so, we train with the same sense of urgency that would be encountered in an actual search, including the various distractions that may be on hand at the time.

Search and Rescue Exercises (Sarex) are important training tools and in addition to a planned Sarex at the national assessment camp each year, Land SAR Search Dogs have been involved in every major avalanche Sarex over the last few years with some impressive results.

If you would like more information about avalanche search dogs, or would like to become involved, you can find details at the following website http://searchdogs.co.nz/training/standards

Dog selection is crucial and we highly recommend anyone interested to talk to an operational handler in their area BEFORE getting a dog.

All dogs are drive tested prior to acceptance into our training programs and handler pre requisites include both the appropriate skill sets and also location - ie: during the winter season, teams must be located no more than 30 minutes from high risk avalanche areas or live in close proximity of a helicopter base likely to be involved in a rescue operation. So, first step is to talk to read the information on the website, then contact an operational handler or contact me at [email protected] and as mentioned previously it’s ideal to do all these things prior to getting a dog.

http://searchdogs.co.nz/training/standards



ChECkliSTS - NErdy buT NECESSary // aNNa kEEliNg

A couple of years ago I wrote about techniques for managing deep lingering instabil-ity and persistent weak layers (PWL) during the 2011-12 season in Utah. The past three Utah seasons have been challenging in that PWL’s have become standard is-sue for a large part of the season. In this article I aim to discuss the use of a simple checklist for teaching avalanche management strategies to recreational ski tourers. I expand on ideas from learning, teaching and assessing on ski guide exams as well as human factor research from the airline and medical industries.

Anna Keeling is an IFMGA mountain guide based at Castle Hill Village and in Salt Lake City, Utah. She mostly guides ski touring and teaches avalanche education to recreational tourers. The weekly ski columnist for the Christchurch Press for the past 3 years, Anna is also an assessor for the NZMGA and AMGA (American Mountain Guides) and is the Training Officer for the NZMGA.

In day-to-day ski guiding I frequently work alone. My employers, Utah Mountain Adventures (UMA) count me as one of their old-timers and I’m either assigned clients or bring my own. I let the office know my plans and check in by text upon return but other than that, I have little contact unless I run into other guides in the field.

UMA does require pre-guiding paperwork. I call it “my morning meeting of one.” Given that there’s also a school boy to get ready, I need to be efficient. I go into the home office, bring up the avalanche bulletin - which conveniently includes a multi-day weather forecast. I read the bulletin right through (including field observations from the previous two days), look out the window, check the outdoor temperature and fill out the set UMA pre-trip winter paperwork. I then transfer the information to my field book. I leave the paperwork on my desk as intentions. Lastly I call or text the UMA office to let them know my plans. On personal (non-guiding) days, I follow the same procedure - minus the pre-trip form. My pack is organised the night before and sits with my boots, ready to go. This is my system.

Above: Anna crossing the t and dotting the i

Anna Partridge & Julie Scott-Hansen enjoying a snow safety class out the back of Porters. Photo Anna Keeling


System: It sounds uptight but having a systems checklist has become one of the more important details that I now teach on recreational avalanche classes, as well as a method I use to empower private clients. It’s also an important detail in guide exams since most guides will end up working alone at some point. Ski patrollers and heliski guide operations are familiar with the morning meeting routine, but it can be harder on your own - and it’s definitely harder when the day is done, to fill out your personal logs and reflections.

Last October I attended a presentation by Deputy Director of the Wallowa (Oregon) Avalanche Centre and commercial airline pilot, Julian Pridmore Brown at the annual Utah Snow and Avalanche Workshop (USAW). Acknowledging that the high risk/low probability/high consequence potential is similar for pilots and backcountry travellers alike, Pridmore Brown shared his research on ways that backcountry travel-lers can improve decision-making and communication. Us-ing techniques developed by the airline industry to mitigate human factors in accidents, Pridmore Brown identified simi-lar patterns to decision making in the backcountry (ultimate-ly seeking the all-important balance between concern for people vs. concern for task/goal/performance). He explored collaborative decision-making in groups and developed a framework for understanding different decision-making and communication styles; Including the ability to identify red flags (feelings of unease or confusion within the group), bar-riers to communication (confidence issues, inability to hear - to name a few), inquiry (consulting with others), advocacy (encouraging others to speak up) and general skills (equip-ment use, fitness etc.)

After attending the Pridmore Brown talk, I read Malcom Gladwell’s, Outliers. Gladwell devotes a chapter to exploring ethnic and hierarchical barriers to communication, provid-ing examples of how breakdowns in cockpit communication have led to airline crashes. In recent decades improvements in crew communication of major airlines has resulted in dras-tic reductions in airline accidents. With the goal of greater openness and candour amongst crew, the airline industry named the practice “Crew Resource Management.” CRM is described as a checklist procedure of pre-flight risk manage-ment plus a set briefing - a “forced conversation” - where red flags such as uneasiness or confusion amongst any crew member require that s/he speak up. According to Wikipedia, “CRM is concerned with the cognitive and interpersonal skills needed to manage resources within an organised system, [and is] not so much [concerned] with the technical knowl-edge and skills required to operate equipment.” Expand-ing on the ethnic aspect, Gladwell draws parallels with the research of Dutch psychologist, Geert Hofstede. Through identifying typical cultural psychological behaviour, Hofst-ede researched cultural dimensions of different countries - focusing particularly on mitigated speech, or the tendency to play down or sugarcoat the meaning of what is being said (ie. hinting rather than stating).

Perhaps most interesting (from a NZ stand point) is Hofst-ede’s identification of the “Power Distance Index” (PDI) of different countries. According to Gladwell, “power distance is concerned with attitudes toward hierarchy, specifically

with how much a particular culture values and respects au-thority.” In a high PDI culture, typically people do not directly challenge those in authority. On Hofstede’s ranking of PDI however, the lowest five pilot PDI’s by country are USA, Ire-land, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. In these five countries crew are most likely to speak up about concerns, regardless of their ranking on the flight deck. Gladwell iden-tifies that plane crash ranking by country matches closely to countries identified as high PDI. Obviously in a pilot sense, we can expect a fairly flat hierarchical structure among the crew of an Air NZ jet - but taking this cultural typicality to the mountain setting, I wonder - can this sense of equality and individualism result in a lack of respect for decision-makers or experts? Or does it result in an ability to ask questions of so-called experts, resulting in more discussion, better com-munication and ideas? Obviously care should be taken when making cultural generalities and at some point we must re-turn to the individual.

Taking the concept of CRM consciously to the mountains - without actually taking part in one of Pridmore Brown’s workshops, I’m now more aware of the need to welcome individual input from my clients - while they may be inex-perienced tourers, invariably they are smart people! When meeting an avalanche class or private clients, I’ve borrowed from Pridmore Brown’s research to mention CRM and how a “forced conversation” via checklist can help decipher the

Below: IFMGA mountain guide Anna Keeling putting a systems based approach to good use out the back of Porters ski area in Canterbury. Photo Anna Keeling


sometimes overwhelming amount of information available to the backcountry traveller - whether guided or instructed or a group of friends. After a brief on packing safety gear and how to best wear transceivers for quick access in an emergency (and transceiver check), I run through a checklist-guided discussion with my group. There are plenty of checklists available but my personal favourite is the American Avalanche Institute Backcountry Avalanche Checklist. It demonstrates the most basic practices - from the weather forecast and avalanche bulletin, route discussion, gear requirements - to the actual identifica-tion of avalanche terrain, avalanche clues and safe travel protocols. Although I’m hired as the apparent “expert,” I encourage everyone to speak up with questions and observations - and feelings. I’m in charge but I’m listening (or trying to!)

Sometimes I worry about being dweeby with my checklists and yellow notebooks. But I worry more about making a mistake that could injure or kill. I worry I may miss a vital clue. And I worry that I may get caught out and will need a client to find me. Some days that’s a lot of worrying to work through. Luckily there’s always simpler terrain!

The Checklist Manifesto, by Atul Gawande, describes an experiment by a Dr Pronovost at Johns Hopkins hospital. “‘We may admit that errors and oversights occur — even devastating ones,’ Pronovost writes, referring here primarily to his fellow sur-geons, a group not known for modesty. ‘But we believe our jobs are too complicated to reduce to a checklist.’” Borrowing from the airline industry and seeking to reduce the common occurrence of infections in hospital patients with intravenous tubes, Pronovost used a simple five-step checklist in operating theatres. Although the doctors had been trained in and knew the procedure, steps would still be skipped. Strict nurses ensured the basic steps could no longer be missed, resulting in a reduc-tion of infections from 11% to zero in one year.

We are not doctors or pilots - but we face similar responsibilities - and in a season with a complicated snowpack and com-mercial pressure it’s easy to get bogged by the details. Operators are familiar with procedure - using checklists to break the range of information into bite-size chunks - but for those of us working independently (and ultimately you are working alone in the field at some point) or attempting to impart avalanche management strategies to the recreational ski tourer, a simple to-do list plus a forced procedural conversation can be effective tactics to cover your bases.

References:Julian Pridmore Brown: “System Safety” Presentation at the Utah Snow Science Workshop, October 2013Malcom Galdwell: Outliers, The Story of Success. Chapter 7: “The Ethnic Theory of Plane Crashes”Atul Gawande: The Checklist ManifestoAmerican Avalanche Institute Backcountry Avalanche Checklist

fOSTEriNg mOrE vENuSiaN baCkCOuNTry uSErS // miEk dEuNiNCk

Sally had the worst kind of first-world problem; she was feeling bored with skiing. She’d been skiing the same mountain for many seasons, and lapping the tracked-out terrain was no longer the thrill it once was. Sure it was amazing when the fresh snow came, but it only took a few hours for to be all criss-crossed again. Sometimes, when riding the chair that looked over the mountains adjacent to the field, Sally would spot people working their way up a distant ridgeline before carving the untracked on the descent. “That’s where I want to go”, Sally thought, so later that evening, Sally had a chat with her new boyfriend Sam about doing some touring. Sam said “Sure, come out with me and the guys someday, it’s epic. There’s sick gnar blowpow everywhere. I’ll find some gear for you, no probs.”

And so, within the week Sally was off on her first backcountry adventure with eager Sam and his pals. On the way to their destination there was a lot of conversation about the snow conditions, the weather, terrain, and previous missions – some of which sounded a little hairy. By the time Sally got out of the car she was a somewhat on edge. However, she was soon occupied by trying to put skins on her skis in the “moderate southerly”: with gloves, without gloves, it was hard to pick a better option as numb hands aren’t any more co-ordinated than gloved ones. Was her transceiver turned on and in transmit mode? Was there enough battery life? “How do you use one of these anyway?” Sally asked Sam; he assured her it didn’t really matter as she’d be skiing first so in case of an avalanche they’d be digging her out and not the other way around. Sally did not feel reassured by this explanation.

Miek Deuninck is based near Lake Hawea and works for Mission WOW (Women of Winter). Here she describes the goals and philosophy behind their approach to introducing more women to skiing and riding safely in the Backcountry.


Off they set at a blistering (literally, because Sally’s borrowed touring boots were at least a size too big) pace up a ridge that seemed far more exposed to the wind than Sally thought necessary. Trailing up the back, trying to become accustomed to trusting skis not to slide, Sally began to wonder if this was such a good idea after all. Although Sam was periodically waiting for her to catch up, the group would set off again as soon as she reached them. Sally went harder than she would’ve liked, because she really hated feeling like she was holding people up.

Once up the top Sally was awestruck by the views and the terrain rolling away in every direction. She began to relax. The boys started to inspect the route they were planning to ski – a massive face with some totally sick terrain features. There was pole prodding and whacking, some digging, and a lot of complicated chat about previous snowfalls, depth hoar, aspect and other terms Sally had never encountered previously. The verdict was that although the face seemed reasonably high risk, they were going to shred it anyway because well, YOLO! Sally was first up. She was trying hard to keep it together, but felt like her life was quite literally in the hands of a group of dudes she barely knew. That day Sally discovered that mortal fear can be a bit of a buzzkill, and that she should probably get a clue of her own before heading out backcountry again.

Jo Guest, the creator of the Mission WOW (Women of Winter / on Wheels / Water) events has met many a Sally: women who want to be out there reaping the benefits of adventure in the great outdoors, but don’t always know quite how to start. Mis-sion WOW backcountry snow courses provide that starting point.

Supplying guides, equipment, and education in an all female environment has proved a successful formula for Jo, whose events have continued to grow over the years. “It [Mission WOW] is definitely not an anti-guy thing” states Guest “it’s about acknowledging that most women approach things a little differently.” Being a minority in a fairly male dominated sphere means women are often lacking role models or female friends to go adventuring with. On the whole women tend to be less convinced of their own immortality than men, meaning that the female approach to risk can be quite different to the male approach.

Right: Instructor Anna Cook demonstrates transceiver search techniques during 2013 on the PISA range Photo: Mission WOW

Below: Skinning out with new skills Photo: Editor

Below: Bringing more colour to the martian landscape Photo: Editor


For Jo it is crucial that Mission WOW backcountry courses have a non-competitive, friendly atmosphere where people feel comfortable asking questions. In this environment Jo has found that women feel more inclined to challenge themselves, particularly with guides such as Anna Cook, Laetitia Campe, Anna Keeling and Heidi Godfrey as role models and teachers. The wealth of experience and knowledge these women have brought to the events over the past three seasons has been invalu-able. Herself a keen adventurer, Jo wants to share that passion with others; “For me, adventure is all about personal challenge and new experiences. If I manage to do something that scares or intimidates me, then I re-consider all the other things I assumed I’d be unable to do.” This is the philosophy that drives Mission WOW events.

When asked why they keep returning for events, Mission WOW veterans’ answers focus around the non-threatening, fun vibe, and the social aspect; one woman’s comment sums it up succinctly; “it gives a defined time for me to do something in a supportive environment, and allows me to meet people at a similar level that are into the same stuff.”

Various Mission WOW events will run this winter. Click here to find out more - missionwow.org/

Alpine Rescue Techniques $69.95

Avalanche Accidents $15.00

Alpine Skills $20.00

Avalanche Awareness $30.00

Avalanche Handbook $45.00

NZ Guidelines and Recording Standards for Weather, Snowpack and Avalanche Observations (2011, NZ) $30.00

alpiNE aNd avalaNChE rESOurCES

Avalanche Assessor Card $11.99

Avalanche Rescue Card $11.99

Card Combo (both cards) $19.99

to purchase any of these resources online, please visit www.mountainsafety.org.nz/resources

http://missionwow.org/

http://www.mountainsafety.org.nz/resources


At Alpine Guides summer staff training this year, we spent some time talking about the summer avalanche danger and the need to keep on top of what was happening in the snowpack. Stories of past events/close calls reinforced the operational differences between winter and summer months. During winter, we have an intense avalanche programme with daily team briefings about what the danger is, how to manage the current danger and confirm the information we currently have is correct. Summer is a time to be just as prepared but as we are often working on our own, the information pool can dry up and communication between remote colleagues becomes a greater challenge.

My 2013-14 summer was mostly spent climbing in the Mt Cook region and I managed to spend my fair share of time in Plateau Hut. On a number of these trips I spent perfect ‘bluebird’ weather days waiting for the avalanche danger to decrease on solar aspects.

On one of these days just back in from a training climb, my client called me outside to see part of the east face of Tasman falling off. Tumbling down from so high on Tasman, I had enough time to race inside, grab my camera and shoot the photos below….

IFMGA guide Jamie Robertson describes some notable avalanche cycles from the past summer at Aoraki/Mt Cook, highlighting the need for diligence when light on information.

VAgRAnt AVALAnCHE CYCLES In tHE PLAtEAU HUt AREA OF AORAkI/Mt COOk tHIS PASt SUMMER. // jAMIE RObERtSOn

Above and Right: Avalanche sequence on East face of Mt Tasman.Photo: Jamie Robertson

The slide managed to completely bury the area known as the mad mile - named due to its exposure from avalanches.


These were common avalanche cycles of wet slides after cold snow on solar aspects, and ice cliffs triggering slabs (this included some of the best new snow I had seen in the last 12 months, with my skis parked at home!). Climbing Mt Cook was challenging at times, one guide mentioned in an informal guides meeting at Plateau, of never having seen a slab on the area called “The Shelf “. A couple of days later, while we were out in the dark crossing the far end of The Shelf, I came across a 30-40cm crown wall. The previous day was warm and concern for hang-fire was low so we continued on. Later, with better light on descent, the avalanche appeared to have been triggered by a point release from above and had very little refill on the crown wall indicating it was more recent than first thought.Moral of the story - assess the terrain and stability, not just the history.

Most notable this summer was a cycle that occurred on lower angle terrain. I flew into the mountains on the 4th January after having some time off. New Year’s at the Viaduct in Auckland was not my usual surroundings for that time of year, and was a hard place to keep tabs on snow conditions.

The snowpack during the summer up to this point had gone through a number of warming cycles with rain on snow events and cold snow falling late storm, which concealed the large wet grains below. Travel had been heavy going and slow. Poor overnight freezes meant foot penetration could be 50cm, so snow shoes were regularly used.

In the soft conditions, timing on climbing routes was challenging as snow structure was changing earlier in the day than usual, and descents on steeper terrain were concerning. I kept observing large wet grains below any new snow that had fallen. The melt freeze nature of the summer consolidation of the snowpack was slower than usual. A possible cause was the fluctuating freezing level causing the snow crystals, to hold some structure in larger crystals for a longer period than usual, rather than change to small rounds in the usual way. The large grains caused foot penetration to be deep but also the structure poor and this caused many days of point releases into the large wet grains and sometimes propagating into a slab.

Just prior to New Year the snowpack once again received rain to high elevations. On Jan 2nd it started snowing again with snow to 1600m and on Jan 3rd rainfall rates to 9mm/hr were recorded at Mueller Hut. This, combined with strong westerly winds meant an “Extreme” danger on slopes above 2000m lee to the NW was recorded on the avalanche.net.nz public forecast.

Photo below shows some of the events that occurred before I flew in on the 4th Jan.

Flying into the mountains on the 4th Jan, it was no surprise to see avalanche activity. Looking at photos you can see the steeper upper mountains glazed from the strong winds, at lower elevations 2100-2600m, activity is observed on low angle terrain. The cause for this is somewhat unknown. I didn’t get a chance to look at the crown walls (due to continued danger and further bad weather). It could have just been the wind and high precipitation rates on the 3rd but with such large/wide propagation on low angle terrain it seems there might be more to it. Was the warm lower pack and new snow with cold temps for a couple of days enough to cause faceting that then combined with the wind and high precipitation, causing the lower angle terrain to slab?

Below: Crown walls on very low angle terrain. Photo: Jamie Robertson


Did we know what the exact nature of the danger was? No. Digging revealed nothing substantial. In winter it’s easier to find an indicator slope that will give more information on the exact nature of the danger. It is more difficult in summer without good travelling equipment (falling through to waist deep with snow shoes on made travel very slow, and limited), and slopes around the hut have different conditions to those more protected from the winds closer to the divide. So while it did not give great representation it still gave us some information, but this made accurate decision making difficult.

Class 1 observations showed a widespread avalanche cycle on most aspects between 2100-2600m including low angle terrain. Ignore class 1 data at your peril.

In the end the question that needs to be asked was: Do we need to be in Avalanche terrain? The answer was NO.

The resulting management strategy was avoidance, and with further snow to low levels on the 5th Jan, all those in Plateau around that time exercised caution on any avalanche terrain on all aspects for the next 24-48hrs. Summer often gives us the advantage of warmer temps and quicker stabilisation than in winter, so time and sun are great tools for management.

After the storm cycle ended the next day, it delivered us 30cm of light and dry snow with very little wind. Leaving early we set a trail up the lower Linda before the sun hit any of the slopes and returned to the hut early for a second breakfast. The photo below shows Jane Morris breaking trail in perfect snow conditions (and we all wished we had skis).

Moral of the story, don’t pack the skis away in the summer - Jamie

Left: Jane Morris breaking trail in fresh

snow on the Linda Glacier

Photo Jamie Robertson


Gordie is the Assistant Avalanche Programme manager for the NZMSC. He regularly travels to the northern winter to work on his suntan while visiting snow colleagues.

tHE CURIOUS PROPERtIES OF SnOw// gORDIE SMItH

Many of us have seen images of snow slowly deforming as it bends itself over the edge of an iron roof.

This past Easter I was lucky enough to be ski touring in the west Norwegian fiords where we witnessed an extreme example of snow malleability and bonding strength. During a lunch stop we decided to make a snow sculpture from the dense slab that we found ourselves on. Using snow saws and shovels we fashioned a crude arch. Quite by chance it ended up facing due south.

The blocks were made from very dense, small, round grains (pencil+), and it required a few of us to balance and align the larger of the columns.

We tried to get the joins square and flush. It seemed sturdy enough, and we hoped it would last a few days in what was an exposed spot overlooking the fiord below.

This place can get its fair share of wind and sun.

Left and below: Newly completed arch atop Geitfonnegga overlooking Geirangerfjord. Photos: Gordie Smith


A week after Easter we went up the same route, and were curious to see if the arch had survived in the elements. As we skinned over the ridge the sight of the deformed structure was surprising to say the least.

All blocks were still welded to each other and intact, but the whole thing had truly ‘arched’ backwards 90 degrees away from the sun. Note the reduced areas of contact between the main upright blocks – but it still held together. Photos:Gordie Smith


NEXT

ISSUE OFCRYSTAL BALL

Above: The final straw. Stress overcomes strength. Photo Gordie Smith

DUE:3 NOV 2014

Submissions deadline due:

26 SEPT 2014

So what forces were going on here to make this possible? Was the arch poorly engineered at the start? (Leaning snow arch of Pisa). Was it heat from the sun, the effect of the wind, or a combination?

Hopefully this sparks some ops room banter, and might get people diving for their copy of the Avalanche Handbook 3rd edition by “Mclung and Schaerer” to re school themselves on snow properties.

While snow has strength it must also endure stress. On our final visit to the snowhenge site a week later, we discovered that much like a snow safety officer at the end of a long season, this arch finally came unhinged and fell to pieces. Perhaps the dog had something to do with it’s demise. He looks kind of guilty?

What do you want to read about in the next edition of the Crystal Ball?Write to us with a topic or theme that you would like to hear more about, or better yet, write an article yourself and submit by the due date to the right.

For ideas or advice contact the editor via:[email protected]


crystal ball volume 24 winter 2014

Documents

public avalanche safety

new regulations

avalanche awareness

new safety management

accounts of avalanche

safety systems

safety guidelines

updates05 research