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CENTRO DE ESTATÍSTICA E

APLICAÇÕES DA UNIVERSIDADE

DE LISBOA

2014

DETAILED REPORT PEst-OE/MAT/UI0006/2014

Principal Investigator: Maria Antonia Conceição Abrantes Amaral Turkman

PEst-OE/MAT/UI0006/2014 DETAILED REPORT: 2014

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. OBJECTIVES 2014 3

2. MAIN ACTIVITIES DEVELOPED DURING 2014 4

3. MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS 2014 6

4. GROUP REPORTS

4.1. GROUP 1: Order Statistics, Extremes and Applications 9

4.1.1. OBJECTIVES 11

4.1.2. MAIN ACTIVITIES 12

4.1.3. MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS 13

4.1.4. PUBLICATIONS 14

4.1.5. ADVANCED TRAINING 31

4.2. GROUP 2: Probability, Modelling and Data Analysis 33

4.2.1. OBJECTIVES and MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS 34



4.3. GROUP 3: Statistical Modelling in Environmental and Life Sciences 47

4.3.1. OBJECTIVES 49

4.3.2. MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS 50



ANNEX 1: List of the Members 75

ANNEX 2: Organized Conferences, Seminars, Advanced Courses 77

ANNEX 3: Indicators of success 2014 79

ANNEX 4: Complete list of publications 81


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1. OBJECTIVES 2014

This I&D Unit (http://www.ceaul.fc.ul.pt) has been playing a central and unique

role in Portugal as a Research Center in Probability, Statistics and its

Applications, developing multidisciplinary activities that aim to carry out research

in domains as diverse as Health, Life Sciences and Biology, Financial Risk and

hazards posed by Nature to the Environment. Together with applied research,

fundamental research is carried out on several areas: Probability, Stochastic

Processes, Extreme Value Theory, Order Statistics, Outliers, Risk Theory,

Computational Statistics and Simulation, Resampling Methods, Quality Control,

Reliability and Design of Experiments, Dynamical Systems and Chaos,

Composite Sampling, Meta Analysis, Longitudinal Data Analysis, Principal

Component Analysis, Bayesian Statistics, Time Series, Survival Analysis,

Classification Methods, Temporal and Spatial Statistics, Categorical Data

Analysis and Missing Data, Environmental Statistics, Statistics in Genomics and

Epidemiological Statistics.

The activities proposed for 2014 followed as a consequence of the main

objective of CEAUL, which is to contribute to the development of new theoretical

framework and methodological issues addressed to applications to real problems,

making efforts towards the correct use of Statistics in Society and Schools. Hence,

during 2014, these objectives were attained through different inter-linked

activities, among which we mention the scientific publications both in National

and International peer review journals, participation in conferences, peer

reviewing, organization of workshops, seminars and advanced courses,

supervision of Ph.D. and M.Sc students and the collaboration with researchers in

other areas.

CEAUL maintains activities to promote Statistics in Society, in High

Institutions and Schools. Towards that, CEAUL keeps links with the National

Institute of Statistics (INE), Portuguese Statistical Society (SPE), Portuguese

Mathematical Society (SPM), Center of International Mathematics (CIM),

Universities and Polytechnics, among other institutions. In particular, senior

members of CEAUL give editorial support to REVSTAT – Statistical Journal, an

International Journal in the area of Probability and Statistics in English, edited by

INE and also to the edition of the SPE newsletter.

Research is the core of the activity of CEAUL. Members are grouped,

according to their research interests, in three main research lines, led by senior

researchers who define the program of activities in order to give coherence to the

group. It is an objective of CEAUL to publish their work on the mainstream high

quality journals in each field and to disseminate their main results in well-

recognized international meetings. Visibility at international level is also an

important issue of CEAUL. For that purpose it is and objective of CEAUL to

promote international collaboration, particularly among its younger members,

seeking the involvement in European projects, participation in international

events, visits of short to medium term in internationally recognized Centres of

Research.

http://www.ceaul.fc.ul.pt/


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2. MAIN ACTIVITIES DEVELOPED DURING 2014

The program of activities relative to the strategic project of CEAUL for 2014 was

developed along several lines.

A) Research activities and dissemination of research

B) Organization of events and advanced training

C) Internationalization

D) Multidisciplinary activities and services to Community

A) Research activities and dissemination of research

Research activities were developed within the three research groups, namely

• G1: Order Statistics, Extremes and Applications.

• G2: Probability, Modelling and Data Analysis.

• G3: Statistical Modelling in Environmental and Life Sciences.

The main topics of research of G1 were in the fields of univariate, multivariate,

multidimensional and spatial extremes, with special emphasis on their applications to

athletics, biometry, environment, finance, insurance, life sciences, outliers and risk

assessment. Topics in the areas of design of experiments, reliability and statistical

quality control were also of related interest and developed. Group G2 dedicated to the

development of research in the fields of uniformity issues related to combined p-

values and random p-values; Statistics in medical research and in forensic sciences;

composite sampling methodologies; Distribution theory; issues in discrete

longitudinal data analysis, new results associated with Mahalanobis distances;

dynamics and bifurcations properties; Statistics in environmetrics and ecology;

History of Probability and Statistics. They also collaborated with members of G1 in

research problems with common interest. Group G3 worked on specific issues on

extreme value theory; non-linear time series; spatio-temporal non-homogeneous

marked point processes; Bayesian hierarchical modeling and spatio-temporal analysis;

semi-parametric and non-parametric Bayesian analysis; categorical data analysis with

missing responses; state space and dynamic models; ROC analysis; statistical issues

in microarray data analysis. The spectrum of statistical applications was large,

particularly in the fields of environmental and health risks, ranging from the modeling

and analysis of forest fire data in Portugal to the application of state-space models to

estimate the total abundance of certain species of fishes, passing through applications

to road safety, genetics, epidemiology and health. A more detailed description of the

research and dissemination activities can be found in the detailed report of the groups,

in sections 4.1, 4.2 and 4.3.

B) Organization of events and advanced training

CEAUL organized several conferences, workshops, seminars and advanced courses.

The complete list is in Annex 2. Members of the research groups were also

responsible for organizing invited thematic sessions in international and national

conferences; they also lectured short courses and gave seminars in several institutions.

All these activities are also contemplated in the sections referred to above.


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C) Internationalization

Members of CEAUL were involved in the organization of thematic sessions in

international conferences, organized international events, were invited to give

seminars and talks at international institutions and conferences. They were also

involved in joint research work with international researchers and participated in

several European projects. More detailed information is given in sections 4.1, 4.2 and

4.3.

D) Multidisciplinary activities and services to Community

Members of CEAUL engaged in an extensive multidisciplinary activities

collaborating with researchers from the areas of Epidemiology, Health, Biology,

Environment, Ecology and Forensic Sciences. We mention the collaboration with

researchers from IGC, IMM, Center of Philosophy of Sciences, Human Genetic

Group of UL, Centre for Health Evaluation & Research, IHMT, Forest Research

Center, Department of Neurosciences at FMUL, Center for the study of respiratory

pathologies at UNL, IPMA, Institute D Luis, Portuguese Quality Institute, BioFIG,

IPO, National Institute of Biological Resources. In particular, it is important to refer

to the collaboration with EDP, IDL and IPMA in a project regarding the influence of

weather conditions in the disruption of electricity grid, the collaborative work with

INSA and DGS in modelling the outbreak of Legionnaires’ Disease in Vila Franca de

Xira, the work carried out within two projects for the industry, namely Amorim &

Irmãos and Amorim Florestal and the study of technical measures for the

management of the ray fishery (Raja undulata), in the Portuguese continental waters,

under a contract within the project UNDULATA-Nº31-03-01 FEP186,(PROMAR –

Programa Operacional Pesca 2007-2013. Eixo 3: Ações colectivas).

CEAUL also maintained the activities previously carried out in order to promote

Statistics in Society and Schools. Towards that, CEAUL kept the existing links with

the National Institute of Statistics (INE), Portuguese Statistical Society (SPE),

Portuguese Mathematical Society (SPM), Center of International Mathematics (CIM),

Universities and Polytechnics, among other institutions. In particular we refer to the

editorial support given by senior members of CEAUL to REVSTAT – Statistical

Journal, an International Journal in the area of Probability and Statistics in English,

edited by INE and the support given to SPE in several of its activities regarding the

promotion of Statistics in Schools through the involvement of some members in the

awarding Prize “Estatístico Júnior”. We further mention all services related to

refereeing for several national and international journals, editorial duties at a national

journal, Boletim da SPE, and at several international journals, among which we

mention journals like Biometrical Letters, The International Journal of Statistical

Theory and Practice (IJSTP) and The Chaotic Modeling and Simulation (CMSIM)

Journal, as well as Extremes and Revstat.


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3. MAIN ACHIEVEMENTS 2014

Dissemination of research and interaction: Scientific production was above the

expected and this can be considered one of the main achievements in 2014. There was

one international book published by Springer, 2 national books, 14 chapters of

international books, 2 chapters of national books, the edition of 3 international books

and 1 national. We also published: (a) 53 papers in peer reviewed international

journals in 2014 plus 10 papers before 31 March 2015; (b) 29 papers in proceedings

of international conferences during 2014, plus 11 published before 31 March 2015,

and 11 in proceedings of national conferences. Notice that in the description of the

strategic project PEst-OE/MAT/UI0006/2014, on the table relative to the expected

indicators, we wrote 12 books (counting books+chapter of books) and 30 international

publications. A complete and more detailed list of indicators can be found in Annex 3.

In annex 4 it can be found the complete list of the publications.

However it is not likely that CEAUL will be able to continue with this level of

activity considering the disappointing classification (and consequent financial cut)

achieved in the recent “evaluation” of the research units by FCT. CEAUL’s members

have been making, for a long time, a special effort in order to publish their work on

the mainstream high quality journals in each field and to disseminate their main

results in well-recognized international meetings. Just in 2014 CEAUL members

published in periodicals such as JRSS B, JRRS C, Annals of Statistics, Bernoulli,

Statistica Sinica, J. Statist. Comput. and Simul, Methodology & Computing in

Applied Probability, Computational Statistics and Data Analysis, Chaotic Modeling

and Simulation Journal, Biometrical Journal, Extremes, among others. There was also

a direct evidence of interaction between the theoretical and applied components of the

work. Moreover, there has been a considerable effort on theoretical issues reinforced

with involvement in applications to real world. In this respect, collaborative work was

also quite successful, with publications in periodicals such as Journal of International

Money and Finance, International Financial Markets, Institutions and Finance,

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, International Journal of

Wildland Fire, Clinical Neurophysiology, Scand. J. Immunol, European Journal of

Endocrinology, Ecological Engineering, Journal Research and Reports in Forensic

Medical Science, etc. There was also a substantial increase in the participation in

international conferences. Research topics set on the general objectives of the

different research groups were, in general, all tackled and subjected to publication.

Projects: Some members of CEAUL integrated research teams of international

projects, such as: (i) Project financed by the European League Against Reumathism

(EULAR) “Patient self-reported quality of osteoarthritis care- comparing cross-

national data from Denmark, UK, Portugal and Norway (2013-2014)”. (ii)

VolkswagenStiftung: WEX-MOP Mesoscale Weather Extremes, (iii) EU FP7

program: MODEXTREME, (iv) Strengthening International Cooperation of the

Klimatext Researh Team, (v) COST (European Cooperation in Science and

Technology) Action IC1408, 2014-2018, (vi) the FP7 European project PERSSILAA

on PERsonalised ICT Supported Service for Independent Living and Active Ageing,

October 2013-October 2016 (vii) European Network for Model-driven Investigation


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of Environmental Processes (groups from Spain, Italy, UK) (viii) BIOSTATNET an

interdisciplinary Biostatistics network.

Internationalization: Continuing international recognition was also a main

achievement. This recognition is well manifested particularly through (i) publications

with international researchers, (ii) invitations to give talks in International

Conferences and to organize thematic sessions, (iii) invitations to present seminars in

well recognized international institutions, (iv) participation as associated editors of

international periodicals, (v) members of the scientific committee of international

meetings.

Advanced Training: Five students finished their Ph.D. during 2014 with the

supervision of integrated members of CEAUL. Also two advanced courses were

organized by members of CEAUL on emerging areas of Statistics for researchers and

advanced students from all over the country, as well as courses on more general areas

of Statistics, for researchers and Ph.D. students who want to learn more about some

specific subject.

Consultancy and Service to Community: Members of G1 were involved in

consultancy activities with the projects for the industry, namely with AMORIM &

IRMÃOS S.A. and Amorim Florestal on the development of sampling plans for

detection of specific composites. Members of G3 were involved with EDP, IDL and

IPMA in a project regarding the influence of weather conditions in the disruption of

electricity grid and the with INSA and DGS in modelling the outbreak of

Legionnaires’ Disease in Vila Franca de Xira. Also a member of group G3 gave

consultancy support to the Research Unit of Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Central

(CHLC) as co-head of the Epidemiology and Statistics Consulting Core.

Software: a second version of the evt0 R-package, related to most of the

methodologies introduced by members of our research group in the area of extreme

value theory (EVT), was published and a new R-package (Boot.EXPOS), with

promising forecasting procedures, was launched.

.


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4. GROUP REPORTS 4.1 GROUP 1: Order Statistics, Extremes and Applications

Group Name/Designation

Order Statistics, Extremes and Applications (RG-MATH-LVT-Lisboa-6-948) Principal Investigator MARIA IVETTE LEAL DE CARVALHO GOMES Location of Group (Host Institution) Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa Keywords:

Extreme Value Theory | Order Statistics and Outliers | Statistical Quality Control,

Reliability and Design of Experiments | Risk Theory | Resampling Methodologies

| Computational Statistics and Simulation

Funding, source, dates (2014)

1) CZ.1.07./2.3.00/20.0086

“STRENGTHENING INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION OF THE

KLIMATEXT RESEARH TEAM”

EU Project — EU structural funds through the Czeck ministry of Education

Coordinator: Jan Picek, Liberec University, Prague.

Starting: January 2012; Finishing: June 2015

Maximum amount of support: 17 389 099, 20 Czech Krowns = 687 000 EUR.

International experts from this team: A. Ferreira, M.I. Fraga Alves, M.I. Gomes

2) PROJECTS WITH THE COOPERATION OF CES (Centro de Estudos e

Desenvolvimento em Saúde, Escola Superior de Saúde da UALG):

2.1) EULAR: Supported Health Professionals Research. Project title: Patient self-

reported quality of osteoarthritis care — comparing cross-national data

from Denmark, UK, Portugal and Norway (2013-2014),

Convenor: Nina Osteras, Norway

International experts from this team: Cordeiro, Clara

3) VolkswagenStiftung: WEX-MOP Mesoscale Weather Extremes: Theory, Spatial

Modeling and Prediction. Joint collaboration with Boon University (responsible

PD Dr. Petra Friederichs), Mannheim University (resp. Prof. Dr. Martin

Schlather) and Heidelberg University (resp. Prof. Dr. Tilmann Gneiting).

Duration of participation: September 1 2014, August 31 2015.

International experts from this team: Ferreira, Ana and Neves, Cláudia

4) EU FP7 program: MODEXTREME - Modelling vegetation response to extreme

events, 2013-2015. Project coordinator: Gianni Bellocchi, INRA, France.

International experts from this team: Ferreira, Ana


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5) COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Action IC1408, 2014-

2018: "Computationally-intensive methods for the robust analysis of non-

standard data", Coordinator: Erricos Kontoghiorghes. Member of the Managing

Committee, 24 November 2014-12 November 2018.

International experts from this team: Gomes, M. Ivette (invited member of Managing

Committee)

6) EXPL/MAT-STA/0622/2013, Project funded by FCT- Fundação para a Ciência e a

Tecnologia: Desenvolvimento de Extremos no Tempo e no Espaço.

Principal Investigator: Cláudia Margarida Pedrosa Neves, Fundação da Faculdade de

Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa (FFC/FC/UL), 1/02/2014 a 31/1/2015.

MEMBERS:

Principal Researcher: Maria Ivette Leal de Carvalho Gomes

Integrated: Fernando Manuel Fialho Rosado

Maria Manuela Costa Neves Figueiredo

Luisa da Conceição S. Canto e Castro Loura

Maria Isabel Fraga Alves

Amílcar Manuel do Rosário Oliveira

Ana Maria Santos Ferreira Gorjão Henriques

Clara Maria Henrique Cordeiro

Cláudia Margarida Pedrosa Neves

Fernanda Otíl ia de Sousa Figueiredo

Teresa Paula Costa Azinheira Oliveira

Bjorn Vandewalle

Lígia Carla Pinto Henriques Jorge Rodrigues

Paula Cristina Martins dos Reis

Paulo José Araújo dos Santos

Bangalore Manjunath

Colaborators (PhD): Helena Maria Simões Ferreira

Ana Paula André Martins

Luísa Maria Jota Pereira Amaral

Maria da Graça Santos Temido Neves Mendes

Paula Marta Bruno

Sandra Cristina Dias Nunes

Maria Cristina Souto Miranda

Colaborators (PhD Students): Pedro Alexandre Gonzaga Rosário

César Duarte Alves da Rocha

Sérgio Luís Ganhão Vicente

Maria Manuela Caria Figueira Sá Neves

Vítor Manuel Fernandes Valente

Helena Alexandra Couceiro Feio de Almeida Penalva

http://www.ceaul.fc.ul.pt/[email protected]






























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4.1.1. Objectives The objectives of the Research Group G|1 for 2014 were again in the fields of

univariate, multivariate, multidimensional and spatial extremes, with special

emphasis on their applications to athletics, biometry, environment, finance,

insurance, life sciences, outliers and risk assessment. Topics in the areas of design of

experiments, reliability and statistical quality control were also of related interest and

developed.

Despite of not expected, there were in 2014 several workshops in the area of

extremes, apart from CIRM International Conference on Extreme Value Theory and

Laws of Rare Events, in July 2014. The public presentation of the new results in this

area was essentially done at the SMTDA 2014 (information still available on-line at

http://www.smtda.net/smtda2014.html), Lisbon, June, at COMPSTAT 2014 (see

http://compstat2014.org/), Geneve, August, at ERCIM 2014, Pisa, and at ESSEC

Conference on Extreme Events in Finance, France, both in December. Indeed, in

these last conference there two plenary speakers from G|1. There were also 2 invited

organized sessions at the Second Conference of ISNPS (International Society of

Nonparametric Statistics), Cádiz, June, with the participation of members of the

team. The presentation of results in other areas was done not only in the

aforementioned conferences, but also at the 8th Workshop on Statistics Mathematics

and Computation, Cabo Verde, March, E-MATH2014, Barcelona, April, CHAOS

2014, Lisbon, June, ISF2014, Rotterdam, July, ICCMSE2014, Athens, April, 1ª

Conferência Internacional da Amazônia em Estatística Experimental e Análise do

Risco, Manaus, August, 12th ICNAAM, Rhodes, September, 4th Polish-Portuguese

Workshop on Biometry, Krakov, September, 1st Conference on Experimental

Design and Statistical Modelling, Poznan, September.

We went on with services to the community, with the organization of 16 conferences

and invited sessions in 2014, as well as seminars and short courses in the areas of

research of the team. It is also sensible to mention the scientific cooperation of

members of this group, GI1, in regular congresses in Portugal, like CONFMET,

JOCLAD and SPE meetings. Most of the members of GI1 have also continuously

supervised M.Sc. and Ph.D. Thesis, and in 2014, 2 Ph.D. and 10 M.Sc students got

their degrees. We further mention all services related to refereeing for several

national and international journals, editorial duties at a national journal, Boletim da

SPE, and at several international journals, among which we mention journals like

Biometrical Letters, The International Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice

(IJSTP) and The Chaotic Modeling and Simulation (CMSIM) Journal, as well as

Extremes and Revstat, two journals recently included in the ISI Web of Knowledge

since 2010.


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4.1.2 Main Activities The topics developed by members of this Group in 2014 were the following:

1) Non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric reliable estimation of first-

order parameters of extreme events, under heavy-tailed frameworks.

2) Different types of max-stability and randomly stopped maxima.

3) Estimation of high-order parameters in statistics of extremes.

4) Adaptive estimation through either resampling or heuristic methods.

5) Extremes and robustness.

6) Penultimate approximations and reliability of large coherent systems.

7) Bias-correction.

8) The block maxima, POT and PPWM methods revisited.

9) Short, light and exponential tail estimation. Associated bias-corrected

methodologies.

10) Estimation in truncated Pareto type models.

11) Endpoint and Weibull-type coefficient estimation. Interval estimation for the

endpoint from resampling and asymptotical frameworks. Applications in athletics,

biology, climatology and environment.

12) Semi-parametric and parametric testing.

13) Chaotic modeling and simulation.

14) Development of further statistical analysis in health studies (osteoarthritis and

diabetes type 2) and biomedical applications.

15) The total median and other robust statistics in SQC. Control charts with

estimated parameters.

16) Multivariate data analysis and Statis.

17) Robust experimental designs and balanced incomplete block designs with

repeated blocks (BIBDR).

18) Risk analysis, financial statistics and forecasting. Submission of a new

package at the R community (Boot.EXPOS), with promising forecasting procedures.

Long-term experiences in mathematics e-learning.

19) Spatial statistics and trend detection. Trends in rainfall in time and space.

20) Statistics for dependent frameworks and stochastic processes. Extremal index

and tail dependence coefficients’ estimation.

21) The generalised Pareto, related processes and applications.

22) Generalisation of the semi-parametric estimation of a spatially varying scale

parameter.

Regarding software, a second version of the evt0 R-package, related to most of the

methodologies introduced by members of our research group in the area of extreme

value theory (EVT), was published and a new R-package (Boot.EXPOS), with

promising forecasting procedures, was launched. Statis and Multivariate data analysis

for assessment of risk factors was also under strong development. We also thought

probable that the final installation of the R package named “evbs”, to analyze data

from extreme value Birnbaum-Saunders (EVBS), and related to a joint cooperation

with a Chilean colleague, Victor Leiva, was ready by the end of 2014. This was not

the case, and this is the unique planned and not achieved objective.


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4.1.3. Main Achievements Apart from the unique above mentioned negative fact related to the non launching of

the “evbs” R-package, all proposed objectives were achieved. The summary of the

results achieved from January 1, 2014 until March 31, 2015, is the following:

• 12 papers published at international journals, and 10 additional articles accepted (not

included in the indicators in item 5).

• 7 articles published as chapters of books (included in the indicator on ‘Books’, due

to the lack of an item ‘Chapters of Books’), and 16 accepted for publication (not

included in the indicators).

• Edition of 1 book (again included in the item ‘Books’) of extended abstracts

associated to the WSMC 8, Santiago, Cabo Verde, edited by ISCEE, and 1 special

issue of Biometrie und Medizinische Informatik – Greifswalder Seminarberichte,

entitled ‘Statistical and Biometrical Challenges, Theory and Applications’, published

by Shaker-Verlag (also included in the item ‘Books’). A book on ‘Theory and

Practice of Risk Assessment’ (Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and Statistics),

edited partially by members of the team, is already in press, but was not included in

the indicators.

• 40 publications in international proceedings, including 11 abstracts (counted in the

item ‘International Communications’, now due to the non-existence of an item related

to ‘International Proceedings’).

• 2 publications in national journals.

• 4 publications in national proceedings (included in ‘National Communications’).

• The national edition of 2 issues of SPE Bulletin.

• An impressive number of 48 invited seminars/lectures (most of them plenary, 36

international, 6 of which published in proceedings). The 12 national seminars were

counted in the item ‘National Communications’, jointly with the 3 publications in

national proceedings.

• Several informal seminars.

• Involvement in organizations of 16 congresses/sessions in 2014 and in 6 congresses

to be held in 2015, being this small number forced to the breakdown associated with

the classification of GOOD attained by CEAUL.

• The contributions of this team to human resources formation in 2014 were 2 Ph.D.

Thesis, 10 MSc Thesis already discussed, and several short courses.

• We further would like to mention the participation of members of the team in 5

international Projects, the running of EXPL/MAT-STA/0622/2013, 1 Project entitled

‘Desenvolvimento de Extremos no Tempo e no Espaço’, funded by FCT, and 2

Projects for Industry, with Amorim & Irmãos (2014) and Amorim Florestal (in

progress). We further have 1 Horizon 2020 Project (H2020-PHC-2014-two-stage)

under evaluation.

• Further note that instead of the 10 articles expected in 2014 peer-reviewed journals,

we managed to have 12 published articles in this period (8 in 2014) and 10 accepted

for publication, already on-line. Also instead of the 20 international publications

expected in books, proceedings and extended abstracts, we could count 47 (with the

edition of the 2 books), already published and 11 accepted (including the edition of a

Springer’s book).

• The publication in national journals or proceedings was low as expected, but we

could count 4 articles in national proceedings of ‘JOCLAD— XXI Jornadas de

Classificação e Análise de Dados’, ‘II Congresso de Ciência e Desenvolvimento dos


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Açores—Novos Sonhos para uma Realidade pós-crise’ and XXI Congresso Annual

da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística.

• In general, and scientifically, we have thus over-passed all the proposed objectives.

4.1.4. Publications CHAPTERS OF BOOKS INTERNATIONAL

1. Araújo Santos, P. and Fraga Alves, M.I. (2014). Extremal quantiles, Value-

at-Risk, quasi-PORT and DPOT. In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R.,

and Paulino, C.D. (eds.), New Advances in Statistical Modeling and

Applications. Springer Series Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics,

Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies, ISBN978-3-319-05322-6, Springer

International Publishing Switzerland, Springer International Publishing, pp.

155-161.

http://springer.libdl.ir/chapter/10.1007/978-3-319-05323-3_15

2. Brilhante, M.F., Gomes, M.I. and Pestana, D. (2014). The mean-of-order p

extreme value index estimator revisited. In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira,

M.R., and Paulino, C.D. (eds.), New Advances in Statistical Modeling and

Applications. Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Selected Papers of

the Statistical Societies, Springer-Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, pp. 163-175.


3. Caeiro, F. and Gomes, M.I. (2014). A semi-parametric estimator of a shape

second order parameter, In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R., and

Paulino, C.D. (eds.), New Advances in Statistical Modeling and Applications.

Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Selected Papers of the Statistical

Societies, Springer-Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, pp. 137-144.


4. Cordeiro, C. and Neves, M.M. (2014). Forecast intervals with Boot.EXPOS.

In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R., and Paulino, C.D. (eds.), New

Advances in Statistical Modeling and Application. Studies in Theoretical and

Applied Statistics, Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies, Springer-Verlag,

Berlin and Heidelberg, pp. 249- 256.


5. Gomes, M.I. (2014). Resampling Methodologies in the Field of Statistics of

Univariate Extremes. In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R., and Paulino,

C.D. (eds.), New Advances in Statistical Modeling and Application. Studies in

Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies,

Springer-Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, pp. 29-40.

http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-319-05323-3_3

6. Gomes, M.I. and Stehlík, M. (2014). The latest advances on the Hill estimator

and its modifications. In Akritas, M., Lahiri, S.N. and Politis, D. (eds.), Topics

in NonParametric Statistics, Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and

Statistics, Vol. 74, Springer-Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, 323-334.









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7. Henriques-Rodrigues, L. and Gomes, M.I. (2014). Peaks over random

threshold best linear unbiased estimation of the extreme value index, In

Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R., and Paulino, C.D. (eds.), New


Applied Statistics, Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies, Springer-Verlag,

Berlin and Heidelberg, pp. 145-153.


BOOKS (EDITOR) INTERNATIONAL

8. Oliveira, T.A., Gomes, M.I., Grilo, L., Oliveira, A. and Baptista, J. (2014).

Abstracts Book: 8th Workshop on Statistics, Mathematics and Computation.

ISCEE editions, Santiago, ISBN: 978-972-9473-78-4. Depósito Legal Nº:

372503/14. https://sites.google.com/site/wsmc2014cv/book-of-abstracts

9. Oliveira, T.A., Bibler, K.E, Oliveira, A. and Jäger, B. (2014). Statistical and

Biometrical Challenges, Theory and Applications, Biometrie und Medizinische

Informatik – Greifswalder Seminarberichte, Shaker-Verlag. ISBN: 978-3-8440-

2680-1

http://www.shaker.eu/en/content/catalogue/index.asp?lang=en&ID=8&ISBN=9

78-3-8440-2680-1

PUBLICATIONS IN INTERNATIONAL JOURNALS

2014

1. Brilhante, M.F., Gomes, M.I. and Pestana, D. (2014). Extensions of Verhulst

model, order statistics and products on independent uniform random variables.

Chaotic Modeling and Simulation (CMSIM) 4:4, 315-322.

http://www.cmsim.eu/October_2014_issue.html

2. Caeiro, F., Gomes, M.I. and Vandewalle, B. (2014). Semi-Parametric

Probability-Weighted Moments Estimation Revisited. Methodology &

Computing in Applied Probability 16:1, pp.1-29.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11009-012-9295-6

3. Fraga Alves, M.I. and Neves, C. (2014). Estimation of the finite right endpoint

in the Gumbel domain, Statistica Sinica 24, 1811–1835.

http://www3.stat.sinica.edu.tw/statistica/j24n4/J24N417/J24N417.html

4. Ferreira, A. and de Haan, L. (2014). The generalized Pareto process; with a

view towards application and simulation. Bernoulli 20 (4), 1717-1737.

http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bj/1411134442

5. Henriques-Rodrigues, L., Gomes, M.I., Fraga Alves, M.I. and Neves, C.

(2014). PORT-estimation of a Shape Second-order Parameter, REVSTAT –

Statistica Journal 12(3), 299-328. http://www.ine.pt/revstat/pdf/rs140305.pdf


https://sites.google.com/site/wsmc2014cv/book-of-abstracts

http://www.shaker.eu/en/content/catalogue/index.asp?lang=en&ID=8&ISBN=978-3-8440-2680-1

http://www.shaker.eu/en/content/catalogue/index.asp?lang=en&ID=8&ISBN=978-3-8440-2680-1

http://www.cmsim.eu/October_2014_issue.html

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11009-012-9295-6


http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bj/1411134442

http://www.ine.pt/revstat/pdf/rs140305.pdf


16

6. Liu, T., Hammoudeh, S. and Araújo Santos, P. (2014). Downside Risk and

Portfolio Diversification in the Euro-zone Equity Markets with Special

Consideration of the Crisis Period. Journal of International Money and Finance

44, June 2014, pp 47-68.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/02615606/44

7. Ramalhinho, I., Cordeiro, C., Cavaco, A. and Cabrita, J. (2014). Assessing

determinants of self-medication with antibiotics among Portuguese people in

the Algarve Region. International Journal of Clinical Pharmacy 36:5, pp. 1039-

1047. http://springer.libdl.ir/article/10.1007/s11096-014-9992-z

8. Sarafrazi, S., Hammoudeh, S. and Araújo Santos, P. (2014). Downside Risk,

Portfolio Diversification and the Financial Crisis in the Euro-zone. Journal of

International Financial Markets, Institutions and Finance 32, 368-396.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.06.008

2015

9. Caeiro, F. and Gomes, M.I. (2015). Revisiting the maximum likelihood

estimation of a positive extreme value index. Journal of Statistical Theory and

Practice. 9:1, 200-218.

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15598608.2014.909754

10. Gomes, M.I., Brilhante, M.F., Caeiro, F. and Pestana, D. (2015). A new

partially reduced-bias mean-of-order p class of extreme value index estimators.

Computational Statistics and Data Analysis 82, 223-237.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2014.08.017

11. Neves, M.M., Gomes, M.I., Figueiredo, F. and Prata-Gomes, D. (2015).

Modeling extreme events: sample fraction adaptive choice in parameter

estimation. Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice 9:1, 184-199.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15598608.2014.890984

12. Reis, P., Canto e Castro, L., Dias, S. and Gomes, M.I. (2015). Penultimate approximations and reliability of large coherent systems. Methodology and

Computing in Applied Probability 17:1, 189-206.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11009-013-9338-7

2013/2014/15 (accepted)

1. Caeiro, F. and Gomes, M.I. (2014+). Bias Reduction in the Estimation of a

Shape Second-Order parameter of a Heavy Tailed Model. Preprint, J. Statist.

Comput. and Simul. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00949655.2014.975707

2. Caeiro, F., Gomes, M.I. and Henriques-Rodrigues, L. (2014+). A location

invariant probability weighted moment EVI estimator. International Journal of

Computer Mathematics.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00207160.2014.975217


http://springer.libdl.ir/article/10.1007/s11096-014-9992-z



http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.csda.2014.08.017

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15598608.2014.890984

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11009-013-9338-7

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00949655.2014.975707

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00207160.2014.975217


17

3. Ferreira, A. (2014+). Spatial aggregation and high quantile estimation applied

to extreme precipitation. Statistics and Its Interface.

4. Ferreira, A. and de Haan, L. (2014+). On the block maxima method in extreme

value theory. Annals of Statistics.

5. Figueiredo, F. and Gomes, M.I (2014+). The total median statistic to monitor

contaminated normal data. Quality Technology & Quantitative Management –

ISSPC 2013 special issue. (15 pgs.)

6. Gomes, M.I., Brilhante, M.F. and Pestana, D. (2013+). New reduced-bias

estimators of a positive extreme value index. Communications in Statistics —

Simulation and Computation.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2013.875567

7. Gomes, M.I. and Guillou, A. (2014+). Extreme Value Theory and Statistics of

Univariate Extremes: A Review. International Statistical Review.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/insr.12058/abstract

8. de Haan, L., Klein Tank, A. and Neves, C. (2014+). On tail trend detection:

modeling relative risk. Extremes.

http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10687-014-0207-8

9. Henriques-Rodrigues, L., Gomes, M.I. and Manjunath, B.G. (2014+).

Estimation of a scale second-order parameter related to the PORT

methodology. Journal of Statistical Theory and Practice.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15598608.2014.969816

10. Prata Gomes, D. and Neves, M.M. (2014+). Bootstrap and other resampling

methodologies in Statistics of Extremes. Communications in Statistics -

Simulation and Computation.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2014.895834

PROCEEDINGS INTERNATIONAL

2014

1 Bráz, N., Pais, S., Cordeiro, C., Oliveira, G. and Conde, M. (2014). Global

Geriatric evaluation of the Algarve population. Revista de Saúde Pública, 48,

216. http://www.rsp.fsp.usp.br/RSPv048n.esp-congresso-book.pdf

2 Caeiro, F. and Gomes, M.I. (2014). On the bootstrap methodology for the

estimation of the tail sample fraction. In Gilli, M., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, G. and

Nieto-Reyes, A. (eds.). Proceedings of COMPSTAT 2014, The International

Statistical Institute/ International Association for Statistical Computing, ISBN

978-2-8399-1347-8, pp. 545-552.

http://www.compstat2014.org/auxil/Proceedings-COMPSTAT2014.pdf

3 Caeiro, F. and Gomes, M.I. (2014). Comparison of asymptotically unbiased

extreme value index estimators: a Monte Carlo simulation study. International

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2013.875567

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/insr.12058/abstract


http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15598608.2014.969816

http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/03610918.2014.895834

http://www.rsp.fsp.usp.br/RSPv048n.esp-congresso-book.pdf



18

Conference of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering 2014, AIP

Conference Proceedings 1618, pp. 551-554.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4897797

4 Cordeiro, C. and Neves, M.M. (2014). Forecasting competition data with

Boot.EXPOS. Proceedings ITISE 2014, International Work-conference on

Time Series, Granada, pp 430-433. http://itise.ugr.es/2014/index.php

5 Cunha, A. G., Oliveira, T.A., Pires, P.C. (2014). Statistical Modelling: study of

cardiovascular profile of asymptomatic adults, from Benguela. In Oliveira, T.,

Biebler K-E., Oliveira, A. and Jager, B.(eds.), Statistical and Biometrical

Challenges: Theory and Applications, Shaker-Verlag, Aachen, Biometrie und

Medizinische Informatik – Greifswalder Seminarberichte 23: 99-114.

http://www.ceaul.fc.ul.pt/files/Abstracts_Statistical_and_Biometrical_Challeng

es.pdf

6. Figueiredo, A. and Figueiredo, F. (2014). Monitoring the covariance matrix of a multivariate skew normal distribution. In C.H. Skiadas (Ed.), 3rd SMTDA Conference Proceedings, pp. 235-242. 2014 ISAST Editions.

http://www.smtda.net/smtda2014.html

7. Figueiredo, A. and Figueiredo, F. (2014). Monitoring the variability of a

multivariate normal process using STATIS. In Gilli, M., Gonzalez-Rodriguez,

G. and Nieto-Reyes, A. (eds.). Proceedings of COMPSTAT 2014, The

International Statistical Institute/International Association for Statistical

Computing, ISBN 978-2-8399-1347-8, pp. 443-450.


8. Figueiredo, F., Figueiredo, A. and Gomes, M.I. (2014). Comparison of

sampling plans by variables using bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulations.

International Conference of Computational Methods in Sciences and

Engineering 2014, AIP Conference Proceedings 1618, pp. 535-538.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4897793

9. Figueiredo, F. and Gomes, M.I. (2014). Resampling methodologies in Phase I

control charts. SMTDA Book of Abstracts, 52. In C.H. Skiadas (Ed.), 3rd

SMTDA Conference Proceedings, pp. 243-250. 2014 ISAST Editions.


10. Figueiredo, F., Gomes, M.I. and Figueiredo, A. (2014). Monitoring the shape

parameter of a Weibull distribution. In Gilli, M., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, G. and


Statistical Institute/International Association for Statistical Computing, ISBN

978-2-8399-1347-8, pp. 395-402.


11. Fraga Alves, M.I. (2014). Estimating the Right Endpoint in the Weibull Max-

Domain of Attraction. In C.H. Skiadas (Ed.), 3rd Stochastic Modeling

Techniques and Data Analysis Conference Proceedings. 2014 ISAST Editions,

pp. 197-198.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4897797

http://itise.ugr.es/2014/index.php

http://www.ceaul.fc.ul.pt/files/Abstracts_Statistical_and_Biometrical_Challenges.pdf




http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4897793




19


12. Francisco, C., Oliveira, T.A. and Oliveira, A. (2014). Delineamento

Experimental em Blocos Incompletos. In Oliveira, T., Gomes, M.I., Kitsos, C.,

Grilo, L., Oliveira, A. and Baptista, J. (eds.), 8th Workshop on Statistics,

Mathematics and Computation: Abstracts Book, ISCEE, Santiago, 43-44.


13. Gomes, M.I. and Caeiro, F. (2014). Efficiency of partially reduced-bias mean-

of-order-p versus minimum-variance reduced-bias extreme value index

estimation. In Gilli, M., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, G. and Nieto-Reyes, A. (eds.).

Proceedings of COMPSTAT 2014, The International Statistical

Institute/International Association for Statistical Computing, ISBN 978-2-8399-

1347-8, pp. 289-298.


14. Gomes, M.I., Caeiro, F. and Figueiredo, F. (2014). A New Value-at-Risk

Semi-parametric Estimation Procedure. SMTDA Book of Abstracts, 68-69. In

C.H. Skiadas (Ed.), 3rd Stochastic Modeling Techniques and Data Analysis

Conference Proceedings. 2014 ISAST Editions,


15. Gomes, M.I., Reis, P., Canto e Castro, L. and Dias, S. (2014). Penultimate

approximations in EVT and in Reliability. In Oliveira, T., Gomes, M.I., Grilo,

L., Oliveira, A. and Baptista, J. (eds.), 8th Workshop on Statistics, Mathematics

and Computation: Abstracts Book, ISCEE, Santiago, 20-21.


16. Leal, C., Oliveira, T.A. and Oliveira, A. (2014). On Response Surface Models.

In Oliveira, T., Biebler K-E., Oliveira, A. and Jager, B.(eds.), Statistical and

Biometrical Challenges: Theory and Applications, Shaker-Verlag, Aachen,

Biometrie und Medizinische Informatik – Greifswalder Seminarberichte 23:

207-240.


es.pdf

17. Monteiro, A., Juan, A.A., Oliveira, T.A. (2014). Experimental Design as Tool

on Adjusting the Parameters of Metaheuristics. In Oliveira, T., Biebler K-E.,

Oliveira, A. and Jager, B.(eds.), Statistical and Biometrical Challenges: Theory

and Applications, Shaker-Verlag, Aachen, Biometrie und Medizinische

Informatik – Greifswalder Seminarberichte 23:259-279.


es.pdf

18. Neves, C. (2014). Trend detection in extreme precipitation. Mathematics and

Engineering in Marine and Earth Problems: Book of Abstracts, 112-114.

Unversidade de Aveiro.

http://c2.glocos.org/index.php/meme/main/about/customPages?pageId=6










http://c2.glocos.org/index.php/meme/main/about/customPages?pageId=6


20

19. Neves, M.M. and Cordeiro, C. (2014). Statistical modelling in time series

extremes: an overview and new steps. In Gilli, M., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, G.

and Nieto-Reyes, A. (eds.). Proceedings of COMPSTAT 2014, The

International Statistical Institute/ International Association for Statistical

Computing, ISBN 978-2-8399-1347-8, pp 569-576.


20. Neves, M.M. and Cordeiro, C. (2014). Statistical modeling in time series

extremes. In Oliveira, T., Biebler K-E., Oliveira, A. and Jager, B.(eds.),

Statistical and Biometrical Challenges: Theory and Applications, Shaker-

Verlag, Aachen, Biometrie und Medizinische Informatik – Greifswalder

Seminarberichte 23: 277-279.


es.pdf

21. Oliveira, A. (2014). Avaliação e Gestão do Risco de Cheias. In Program and

papers, 1ª Conferência Internacional da Amazónia em Estatística Experimental

e Análise de Risco, Manaus, Brasil, pp. 17-18.

http://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/116796/1/Anais-

Conferencia-Internacional.pdf

22. Oliveira, A., Oliveira, T.A. and Seijas Macías, A. (2014). Reaction Times

Distribution: Old and New Approaches. In Oliveira, T., Gomes, M.I., Kitsos,

C., Grilo, L., Oliveira, A. and Baptista, J. (eds.), 8th Workshop on Statistics,

Mathematics and Computation: Abstracts Book, ISCEE, Santiago, 28.


23. Oliveira, T.A., Leal, C., Lima, R. (2014). Experimental Design and Data

Analysis: methods for the response optimization and applications using R. In

Program and papers, 1ª Conferência Internacional da Amazónia em Estatística

Experimental e Análise de Risco, Manaus, Brazil, 21-24.

http://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/116796/1/Anais-

Conferencia-Internacional.pdf

24. Pais, S., Cordeiro, C. and Pacheco, G. (2014). Comparative study of patients’

knowledge on osteoarthritis treatment options to ACR guidelines. Osteoarthritis

and Cartilage 22, 225.

http://www.oarsijournal.com/article/S1063-4584(14)00475-0/abstract

25. Penalva, H., Nunes, S. and Neves, M.M. (2014). Statistical Modeling and

Inference in Extremes: Applications with R. In Oliveira, T., Biebler K-E.,



Informatik – Greifswalder Seminarberichte 23: 281-309.


es.pdf

26. Prata Gomes, D. and Neves M.M. (2014). Exploring R for modeling spatial

extreme precipitation data. International Conference of Computational Methods




http://ainfo.cnptia.embrapa.br/digital/bitstream/item/116796/1/Anais-Conferencia-Internacional.pdf





http://www.oarsijournal.com/article/S1063-4584(14)00475-0/abstract




21

in Sciences and Engineering 2014, AIP Conference Proceedings 1618, pp. 547-

550.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4897797

27. Prata Gomes, D. and Neves M.M. (2014). Statistical modeling of spatial

extremes: An application to extreme precipitation. Proceedings of the 3rd

International Conference on Ecohydrology, Soil and Climate Change,

EcoHCC'14, 10-12 September 2014, Tomar.

28. Ramos, M.R and Cordeiro, C. (2014). Trend tests: a tendency to resampling.

Proceedings of the International Work-Conference on Time Series Analysis

(ITISE 2014), Ignacio Rojas Ruiz and Gonzalo Ruiz Garcia (Eds). ISBN 978-

84-15814-97-9, Vol.1, pp. 322-328.

http://itise.ugr.es/proceedings

29. Silva, D., Oliveira, T.A. and Oliveira, A. (2014). The multiple linear

regression analysis in the prediction of physical education classification. In

Oliveira, T., Gomes, M.I., Kitsos, C., Grilo, L., Oliveira, A. and Baptista, J.

(eds.), 8th Workshop on Statistics, Mathematics and Computation: Abstracts

Book, ISCEE, Santiago, 49-50.


30. Silva Coelho, J., Branco, F., Oliveira, T.A., Leiva, V. (2014): Distribution

View: a tool to write and simulate distributions. In Oliveira, T., Biebler K-E.,





es.pdf

2015

31. Brilhante, M.F., Gomes, M.I. and Pestana, D. (2015). Further Results on Order

Statistics and Products of Functions of Independent Generalized Beta Random

Variables. In T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios, Ch. Tsitouras and Z. Anastassi (eds.),

Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP

Conferecence Proceedings, American Institute of Physics, 540002:

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/proceeding/aipcp/10.1063/1.4912748

32. Costa, M. T., Carolino, E. and Oliveira, T.A. (2015). Multivariate control

charts: An application on monitoring the quality parameters of drinking water.

In T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios, Ch. Tsitouras and Z. Anastassi (eds.), Numerical

Analysis and Applied Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conference

Proceedings 1648, American Institute of Physics, 84006


33. Ferreira, M.C., Pereira, J.A. and Oliveira, A. (2015). Acquisition of

Competencies in Mathematics through Games. In T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios,

Ch. Tsitouras and Z. Anastassi (eds.), Numerical Analysis and Applied

http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.4897797








22

Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conference Proceedings 1648, American

Institute of Physics, 840009:


34. Oliveira, T.A., Leal, C. and Oliveira, A. (2015). Stochastic Response Surface

Methodology: A Study in the Human Health Area. In T. E. Simos, G.

Psihoyios, Ch. Tsitouras and Z. Anastassi (eds.), Numerical Analysis and

Applied Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conference Proceedings 648,

American Institute of Physics, 840012:


35. Oliveira, T.A. (2015). Preface of the “Symposium on statistical modelling and

biometrical applications”. In T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios, Ch. Tsitouras and Z.

Anastassi (eds.), Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics ICNAAM

2014, AIP Conference Proceedings, American Institute of Physics, 840001:


36. Oliveira, T.A. and Francisco, C. (2015). BIBD, Hadamard matrices and new

technological devices: Applications to QR codes. In T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios,


Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conference Proceedings, American Institute

of Physics, 840004:


37. Oliveira, A., Oliveira, T.A. and Seijas-Macias, A. (2015). Distribution

Function for the ratio of Two Normal Random Variables. In T. E. Simos, G.





38. Oliveira, T.A., Oliveira, A., Caroço, A., Batista, M.J., Oliveira, M.M. and

Borges, J. (2015). Linear Regression on the characterization of elements of

natural origin and possible implications in the use of ground. In T. E. Simos, G.





39. Pereira J.A., Oliveira T.A., Costa A. and Mendes, L. (2015). Modulation of

dental root surface area through GLMs – Clinical Applications In T. E. Simos,

G. Psihoyios, Ch. Tsitouras and Z. Anastassi (eds.), Numerical Analysis and


American Institute of Physics, 840008


40. Prata Gomes, D. and Neves, M.M. (2015). Computer intensive methods for

improving the extremal index estimation. In T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios, Ch.

Tsitouras and Z. Anastassi (eds.), Numerical Analysis and Applied

Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conferecence Proceedings 1648, American









23



PUBLICATIONS NATIONAL

1. Henriques-Rodrigues, L., Marques, T.A. and Silva, G. (2014). A Estatística vai

à Escola. Boletim SPE, Primavera 2014, pp. 15-18.

http://www.spestatistica.pt/attachments/article/101/Boletim%20SPE%20primave

ra%202014.pdf

2. Neves, M.M. (2014). Lançamento da emissão filatélica dos CTT alusiva ao Ano

Internacional de Estatística. Boletim SPE, Primavera 2014, pp. 28-32.


ra%202014.pdf

EDITIONS NATIONAL

1. Rosado, F. (2014). Edição do Boletim SPE, Primavera 2014, (Um) Ano

Internacional da Estatística. Edições SPE. ISSN: 1646-5903. Depósito Legal:

249102/06 (68 pages).


ra%202014.pdf

2. Rosado, F. (2014). Edição do Boletim SPE, Outono 2014, Estatística no Ensino

Básico e Secundário. Edições SPE. ISSN: 1646-5903. Depósito Legal:

249102/06 (48 pages).

http://www.spestatistica.pt/attachments/article/101/Boletim%20SPE%20outono

%202014.pdf

PROCEEDINGS NATIONAL

1. Figueiredo, A. and Figueiredo, F. (2014). Metodologia STATIS em Controlo

Estatístico da Qualidade. Em livro de resumos alargados das XXI Jornadas de

Classificação e Análise de Dados, JOCLAD 2014, pp. 93-96.

http://www.clad.pt/DOC_EVENTOS/JOCLAD2014.pdf

2. Gomes, M.I., Figueiredo, F. and Figueiredo, A. (2014). Controlo Estatístico da

Qualidade em Indústria e Serviços, In Tomaz Dentinho (ed.), Livro de Atas do II

Congresso de Ciência e Desenvolvimento dos Açores—Novos Sonhos para uma

Realidade pós-crise e VII Congresso de Gestão e Conservação da Natureza,

Universidade dos Açores, Angra do Heroísmo, ISBN 978-989-98567-1-4, pp.

42-49.

http://congressoacda2014.weebly.com

3. Penalva, H. Nunes, Sandra e Neves, M.M. (2014). Estimação do índice de

valores extremos em ambiente R — as abordagens paramétrica e semi-


http://www.spestatistica.pt/attachments/article/101/Boletim%20SPE%20primavera%202014.pdf






http://www.spestatistica.pt/attachments/article/101/Boletim%20SPE%20outono%202014.pdf



http://congressoacda2014.weebly.com/


24

paramétrica. In Pereira, I., Freitas, A., Scotto, M. Silva, E. And Paulino, C.D.

(eds.), Estatística: A Ciência da Incerteza. Actas do XXI Congresso Anual da

Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Edições SPE.

4. Penalva, H. Nunes, Sandra e Neves, M.M. (2014). Estimação paramétrica e

semiparamétrica do índice de cauda utilizando o R ''. Livro de resumos das XXI

Jornadas de Classificação e Análise de Dados, pp. 199-202.


2014 INVITATIONS (International) • Caeiro, F. “On the Bootstrap Methodology for the Estimation of the Tail Sample

Fraction”. Invited talk (joint work with M. Ivette Gomes) at 21st International

Conference on Computational Statistics (COMPSTAT 2014) and 5th IASC World

Conference, Geneva, August 19-22. (Also in Proceedings)

• Caeiro, F. “Comparison of Asymptotically Unbiased Extreme Value Index

estimators: a Monte Carlo Simulation Study”. Invited talk (joint work with M.

Ivette Gomes) at the 10th International Conference of Computational Methods in

Sciences and Engineering (ICCMSE 2014), April 4-7, Athens, Greece. (Also in

Proceedings)

• Ferreira, Ana, “On the Block Maxima Method in EVT: PWM Estimators”. Invited

talk at: Workshop on Extreme Value Theory, with an emphasis on spatial and

temporal aspects, Besançon, France, Nov 3-5 2014.

• Ferreira, Ana, “On the Block Maxima Method in EVT”. Invited poster at:

Symposium Extreme Events 2014 (Volkswagen Foundation), Herrenhausen Palace,

Hannover, Germany, Oct 6-7 2014.

• Ferreira, Ana, “New Developments on Block Maxima and POT Methods”. Invited

talk at: Special Year for Stochastics and Statistics - Robust Statistics and Extremes,

Australian National University, Canberra, Sept 8-11 2014.

• Ferreira, Ana, “Some Overview of Extreme Value Theory with Applications to

Quantile Estimation”. Invited RSFAS Statistics Seminar, Australian National

University, Canberra, Sept 5 2014.

• Ferreira, Ana, “The Block Maxima Method Revisited applied to PWM Estimators”.

Invited talk at: Second ISNPS (International Society of Non-Parametric Statistics)

Conference, Cádiz, Spain, June 12-16 2014.

• Figueiredo, Fernanda, “Resampling Methodologies in Phase I Control Charts”.

Invited talk (joint work with Gomes, M.I.) at “Advanced Statistical Process

Control I” managed by Philippe Castagliola, SMTDA 2014—3rd Stochastic

Modeling Techniques and Data Analysis International Conference, Lisboa, June

11-14. (Also in Proceedings)



25

• Figueiredo, F. “Comparison of Sampling Plans by Variables using the Bootstrap

and Monte Carlo Simulations”. Invited talk (joint work with Figueiredo, A. and

M.I. Gomes) at University of Piraeus, Department of Statistics and Insurance

Science, April 7, Greece 2014.

• Fraga Alves, M. Isabel, “Extreme Value Theory: An Introductory Overview”,

Invited Plenary Lecture at Extreme Events in Finance, December, 2014,

Royaumont Abbey, France. Plenary talk.

• Fraga Alves, M. Isabel, “Estimating the Right Endpoint in the Weibull Max-

Domain of Attraction: An application to Life Span”. Keynote speaker at 3rd

SMTDA2014, Lisbon Portugal—3rd Stochastic Modeling Techniques and Data

Analysis International Conference. Lisbon, Portugal, 11-14 June 2014. Plenary

talk.

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “The Role of Bootstrap in Statistics of Univariate Extremes”,

Invited Plenary Lecture at Extreme Events in Finance, December, 2014,

Royaumont Abbey, France. Plenary talk.

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “An Introduction to Statistics of Univariate Extremes and

Applications”, invited short course at Pretoria University, South Africa, November

6, 2014.

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Threshold Selection for Reduced-Bias Location-Invariant EVI-

estimators”, invited seminar at University of the Free State, South Africa,

November 4, 2014.


estimators and a Financial Application”, invited seminar at Stellenbosch

University, South Africa, November 3, 2014

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Penultimate Approximations and Reliability o Large Coherent

Systems: Past, Present \dots and Future?” SASA 2014: the 56th Annual

Conference of the South African Statistical Association, Rhodes University,

Grahamstown, October 27-30, 2014. Plenary talk.

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Statistics of Extremes and Applications: An Introduction", Short

course (5 hours) at SASA 2014: the 56th Annual Conference of the South African

Statistical Association, Rhodes University, Grahamstown, October 27-30, 2014.

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Further Results on Order Statistics and Products of Functions

of Independent Generalized Beta Random Variables”. Invited talk (joint work with

M. Fátima Brilhante and Dinis Pestana) at ICNAAM 2014, Rhodes, Greece,

September 22-28. (Also in Proceedings)

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Partially Reduced-Bias Value-at-Risk Estimation” (joint work

with Frederico Caeiro and Fernanda Figueiredo), “Computationally Intensive

Methods in Statistics and Econometrics”, Satellite Meeting of COMPSTAT 2014,

August 23-24, Neuchâtel, Switzerland. Plenary talk. (Also in Proceedings)


26

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Efficiency of Partially Reduced-bias Mean-of-order-p versus

Minimum-variance Reduced-bias Extreme Value Index Estimation”. Invited talk

(joint work with Frederico Caeiro) at 21st International Conference on

Computational Statistics (COMPSTAT 2014) and 5th IASC World Conference,

Geneva, August 19-22. (Also in Proceedings)

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “A Glimpse of Statistics of Univariate Extremes”. Invited

plenary talk at CIRM International Conferences on Extreme Value Theory and

Laws of Rare Events, July 14-18, 2014, Marseille, France. Plenary talk.

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Penultimate Approximations in EVT and in Reliability”, Invited

plenary talk at WSMC8, 8th

Workshop on Statistics, Mathematics and

Computation, Praia, Santiago, Cape Verde, March 12-15, 2014. Plenary talk.

• Neves, Cláudia “Trend Detection in Extreme Precipitation”. Mathematics and

Engineering in Marine and Earth Problems. Universidade de Aveiro, July 22-25,

2014. Plenary talk.

• Neves, M. Manuela, “Computer Intensive Procedures in Threshold Selection”.

Invited talk (joint work with M. Ivette Gomes, Fernanda Figueiredo and Dora

Prata-Gomes) at the 7th International Conference of the ERCIM Working Group

on Computational and Methodological Statistics (ERCIM 2014), University of

Pisa, Italy, December, 2014.

• Oliveira, Amílcar, “Análise Exploratória e Modelação com R”, Short Course (6

hours). (joint work with Oliveira, Teresa A.), “1ª Conferência Internacional da

Amazónia em Estatística Experimental e Análise de Risco”, Manaus, Brazil,

August 12-15, 2014.

• Oliveira, Amílcar, “Avaliação e Gestão do Risco de Cheias”. 1ª Conferência

Internacional da Amazónia em Estatística Experimental e Análise de Risco,

Manaus, Brazil, August 12-15, 2014. Plenary talk.

• Oliveira, Amílcar, “Statistical Techniques to Analyze Genotype x Enviroment

Interaction”. Invited talk at SMSW’14—Statistics and Mathematical Sciences

Workshop in Honour of Professor João Tiago Mexia, UBI, Covilhã, Portugal, July

7, 2014.

• Oliveira, Amílcar, “Análise Conjunta de Regressões: Aplicações usando o

Software R”, Invited talk at “Escola de Verão”, UFRN 2014, Natal, Brasil, January

23, 2014.

• Oliveira, Amílcar, “Introdução à Estatística Experimental usando o software R”,

Short Course (5 hours). (joint work with Oliveira, Teresa A.), “Escola de Verão”,

UFRN 2014, Natal, Brazil, January, 2014.

• Oliveira, Teresa A., “Stochastic Response Surface Methodology in Medicine with

censured/uncensured data analysis” (jointly with Leal, C. and Oliveira, A.)

Invited Speaker in Mathematics and Computational Methods, Athens, Greece, 28-

30 November 2014.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/b315fc_d1728a9600bd43f0bfa0efcedea25cd2.pdf

http://media.wix.com/ugd/b315fc_d1728a9600bd43f0bfa0efcedea25cd2.pdf


27

• Oliveira, Teresa A., “Experimental Design and Data Analysis: methods for

theresponse optimization and applications using R.” 1ª Conferência Internacional

da Amazónia em Estatística Experimental e Análise de Risco, Manaus, Brazil,

August 12-15, 2014. Plenary talk.

• Oliveira, Teresa A., “Response Surface Methodology, Genetic Algorithms and

Applications”, Invited talk at SMSW’14 - Statistics and Mathematical Sciences

Workshop in Honour of Professor João Tiago Mexia, UBI, Covilhã, Portugal, July

7, 2014.

• Oliveira, Teresa A., “Técnicas e Aplicações do Delineamento Experimental.”

Invitedtalk at “Escola de Verão”, UFRN 2014, Natal, Brasil, January 21, 2014.

• Prata Gomes, D. “Computer Intensive Methods for Improving the Extremal Index

Estimation” Invited talk (joint work with M. Manuela Neves) at “International

Conference of Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics (ICNAAM 2014)”,

Rhodes, Greece, September 22-28.

• Prata Gomes, Dora, “Exploring R for Modeling Spatial Extreme Precipitation

Data”. Invited talk (joint work with M. Manuela Neves) at the 10th International

Conference of Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering (ICCMSE

2014), April 4-7, Athens, Greece.

• Prata Gomes, Dora, “Statistical Modeling of Spatial Extremes: An Application to

Extreme Precipitation”. Invited talk (joint work with M. Manuela Neves) The 3rd

International Conference on Ecohydrology, Soil and Climate Change, EcoHCC'14,

10 -12 September 2014, Tomar.

2014 INVITATIONS (National)

• Ferreira, Ana, “High Quantile Estimation and Spatial Aggregation applied to

Precipitation eExtremes”. Invited Research Seminar CMA/FCT-UNL, Lisbon,

Portugal, May 21 2014.

• Ferreira, Ana, “High Quantile Estimation and Spatial Aggregation applied to

Precipitation Extremes”. Invited Research Seminar IST, Lisbon, Portugal, March

19 2014.

• Figueiredo, Fernanda “Phase I Control Charts based on Bootstrap Estimates”.

Invited talk (joint work with Figueiredo, A. and M.I. Gomes) at Workshop on

Statistics and Applications – Uminho, Departamento de Matemática e Aplicações

– Azurém, Guimarães, October 16-17, 2014.

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Análise de Valores Extremos: Uma Breve Introdução”,

Seminário convidado, Instituto de Investigação Científica Bento da Rocha Cabral,

Novembro 26, 2014.


28

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Controlo da Qualidade na Indústria e Serviços”, Invited

preesentation (joint work with Fernanda Figueiredo and Adelaide Figueiredo), II

Congresso para a Ciência e Desenvolvimento dos Açores, Universidade dos

Açores, Angra do Heroísmo, June 27-29, 2014.

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Interdisciplinary Applications of Probability and Statistics”

Debate on Mathematics and its Interdisciplinary Applications, with Prof. P.L.

Lions and a UL panel of scientists (Miguel Abreu, M. Ivette Gomes, J. Luís,

Rosário Grossinho, Alfredo Egídio Reis, Adélia Sequeira, Artur Martinho Simões).

Organizers: João Paulo Carvalho Dias and José Francisco Rodrigues, Lisboa, June

18.

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Possíveis Vantagens de Médias de Ordem Real na Estimação

de Parâmetros de Acontecimentos Raros”. 2ªs Jornadas UAb da Estatística e

Computação, Porto de Mós, entro Local de Aprendizagem da UAb, June 7, 2014.

Plenary talk.

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Estatística de Extremos: Uma Introdução”. Invited short course

(3 hours), 2nd

Workshop “A Ciência dos Dados”, Departamento de Matemática,

Universidade dos Açores, May 8-10, 2014.

• Gomes, M. Ivette, “Mean of order p location-invariant and reduced-bias extreme

value index estimation” Invited seminar at FCUP, Porto, Portugal, February 6,

2014.


estimators: A Financial Application”. Mini-workshop on “Extremes and

Extensions of the Verhulst Growth Modesl: Apllications to Economics and

Finance”, PDMA, CEF.UP and “Seminários do Agrupamento Científico de

Matemática e Sistemas de Informação”, FEP, Porto, February 3, 2014.

• Mazeda Gil, Pedro. “Firm size distribution under vertical and horizontal

Innovation”. Invited talk (with Fernanda Figueiredo) at the Mini-workshop on

“Extremes and Extensions of the Verhulst Growth Model: Applications to

Economics and Finance”, PDMA, CEF.UP and “Seminários do Agrupamento

Científico de Matemática e Sistemas de Informação”, FEP, Porto, February 3,

2014.

• Neves, M. Manuela, “Data Analysis and Estimation in Extremes. An Overview with

an Application”. 2ªs Jornadas UAb da Estatística e Computação, Porto de Mós,

Centro Local de Aprendizagem da UAb, June 7, 2014. Plenary talk.

CONFERENCES — Organization and/or scientific

responsibilities (CEAUL members) 2015 1. “WSMC 9—9

th Workshop on Statistics, Mathematics and Computation”, UFRN-

23-25 January 2015, Natal-Brasil. T.A. Oliveira is Co-Chair, Member of

Scientific and Organizing Committee. (CANCELLED)


29

2. “CIIEECA 2- 2º Congresso Internacional de Informática e Estatística

Experimental e Computacional da Amazónia”. ULBRA, 10-15 de Maio de 2015,

Ji-Paraná, Rondônia, Brasil. T.A. Oliveira is Co-Chair, Member of Scientific and

Organizing Committee.

3. “ICRA 6—International Conference on Risk Analysis/RISK 2015”, Barcelona,

May 26 - 29, 2015. T.A. Oliveira is Program, Proceedings & Registration Co-

Chair. http://www.uoc.edu/portal/en/symposia/icra6/Home/index.html

4. “EVA 2015—9th

International Conference on Extreme Value Analysis”, The

University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. June 15-19, 2015.

Members of the Program Committee: Gomes, M.I. and de Haan, L.

http://sites.lsa.umich.edu/eva2015/

5. “CIAEEAN 2- 2ª Conferência Internacional da Amazônia em Estatística

Experimental e Análise de Risco”. 21-22 de Julho de 2015, Campina Grande,

Paraíba, Brasil. T.A. Oliveira is Co-Chair, Member of Scientific and Organizing

Committees.

6. “CRA-ISI-Satellite Meeting” 21-22 de Julho de 2015, Campina Grande, Paraíba,

Brasil. T.A. Oliveira is Co-Chair, Member of Scientific and Organizing

Committee.

2014 1. “Extreme Value Theory and its Applications in Finance and Insurance”,

Royaumont Abbey — Ile de France, December 16-18, 2014.

Member of the Scientific Committee: Gomes, M.I.

2. “Threshold Selection in Statistics of Extremes”. Invited Session to the 7th

International Conference of the ERCIM WG on Computational and

Methodological Statistics (ERCIM 2014), Pisa, Italy, December 6-8.

Invited Speakers: J. Beirlant, M. Brito, M. Neves, J. Picek and C. Scarrott.

Organizer: Gomes, M.I.

3. "I Encontro Luso-Galaico de Estatística em Ambiente e Ecologia (EES2014)",

November 6-8, 2014, UTAD, Vila Real. Member of the Scientific Committee.

Members of the Scientific Committee: Neves, M.M., Silva, G.L. and Turkman,

K.F.

4. The 44th International Biometrical Colloquium, Cracow, Poland, 7-10 September

2014, and The IV Polish-Portuguese Workshop on Biometry, Poznan, Poland,

September 3-5, 2014.

Members of the Program/Scientific Committee: Gomes, M.I., Neves, M.M.,

Oliveira, A. and Oliveira, T.A.

Co-chair: Oliveira, T.A.

http://www.ihar.edu.pl/44mcb.php

5. “21st International Conference on Computational Statistics”, CompStat 2014,

http://www.uoc.edu/portal/en/symposia/icra6/Home/index.html

http://sites.lsa.umich.edu/eva2015/

http://www.ihar.edu.pl/44mcb.php


30

Geneva, August 19-22, 2014.


6. "Computer Intensive Methods in Statistics of Extremes". Invited session to

CompStat 2014, Geneva, August 19-22, 2014.

Invited Speakers: F. Caeiro, M.I. Gomes and A. Guillou.

Organizer: Gomes, M.I.

7. “1ª Conferência Internacional da Amazónia em Estatística Experimental e Análise

de Risco”, Manaus, Brazil, August 12-15, 2014.

Members of the Organizing Committee: Oliveira, A., Oliveira, T.A.

Members of the Scientific Committee: Amaral Turkman, M.A., Gomes, M.I.,

Oliveira, A., Oliveira, T.A.

http://stat_am.cpaa.embrapa.br/

8. CIRM International Conferences on Extreme Value Theory and Laws of Rare

Events, July 14-18, 2014, Marseille, France.


9. SMSW’14 — Statistics and Mathematical Sciences Workshop in Honour of

Professor João Tiago Mexia, UBI, Covilhã, Portugal, July 7, 2014.

Members of the Scientific and Programming Committee: Oliveira, A. and

Oliveira, T.A.

http://smsciencesw.wix.com/smsw

10. CONFMET 2014—Workshop Medição de Grandes Estruturas Terrestres e

Espaciais em Regime Dinâmico, LNEC, Lisboa, June 26-27, 2014.

Members of the Scientific Committee: Gomes, M.I. and Pestana, D.

11. SMTDA 2014, International Conference on Stochatic Modeling Techniques and

Data Analysis, 11-14 June, 2014, Lisbon, Portugal.

Co-chair and member of the Scientific Committee: Gomes, M.I.

12. 2ªs Jornadas de Estatística e Computação da Universidade Aberta, Porto de Mós,

Centro Local de Aprendizagem da UAb, June 7, 2014.

Members of the Scientific Committee: Gomes, M.I., Neves, M.M., Oliveira, A.,

Oliveira, T.A. and Pestana, D. Co-Chair: Oliveira, T.A. Chair: Oliveira, A.

https://sites.google.com/site/jecuab2014/

13. CHAOS 2014, The 7th

Chaotic Modeling and Simulation International

Conference, June 7-10, 2014, Lisbon, Portugal.

Members of the International Scientific Committee: Gomes, M.I., Pestana, D.

14. "XXI Jornadas de Classificação e Análise de Dados", 10-12 de Abril, 2014, INE,

Lisboa. Member of the Scientific Committee: Neves, M.M.

15. 8th

Workshop on Statistics, Mathematics and Computation, Praia, Santiago, Cape

Verde, March 12-15. https://sites.google.com/site/wsmc2014cv/

Members of the Organizing Committee: Oliveira A. and Oliveira, T.A.

Members of the Scientific Committee: Amaral Turkman, M.A., Brilhante,

http://stat_am.cpaa.embrapa.br/

http://smsciencesw.wix.com/smsw

https://sites.google.com/site/jecuab2014/

https://sites.google.com/site/wsmc2014cv/


31

M.F., Gomes, M.I., Neves, M.M., Oliveira, A., Oliveira, T.A., Pestana, D. and

Turkman, K.F.

Co-chairs of the Executive Committee: Gomes, M.I., Oliveira, A., Oliveira,

T.A.

16. Mini-workshop on “Extremes and Extensions of the Verhulst Growth Modesl:

Apllications to Economics and Finance”. PDMA, CEF.UP and “Seminários do

Agrupamento Científico de Matemática e Sistemas de Informação”, FEP, Porto,

February 3, 2014.

Invited Speakers: Dinis Pestana, Ivette Gomes and Pedro Mazeda Gil

Organizer: Figueiredo, F.

4.1.5. ADVANCED TRAINING

Ph.D. completed

1) Pedro Mazissa Gomes, A Influência das PGRH no Desempenho Organizacional,

um Estudo de Caso no Sector Bancário Angolano. Doutoramento em

Gestão na Universidade Aberta. Supervisor: Amílcar Oliveira, Co-

supervisor: Maria do Rosário Almeida.

2) Luís Manuel Santa Mansos, Modelo de Análise do Capital Humano sob a

Perspectiva da Gestão do Conhecimento: Aplicação ao Ensino Superior a

Distância Português com os PALOP. Doutoramento em Gestão na

Universidade Aberta. Supervisor: Maria do Rosário Almeida, Co-

supervisor: Teresa Oliveira

M.Sc. completed:

1) Ana Isabel Ramos Gonçalves Cunha, Risco Cardiovascular e Prevalência de

Fatores de Risco: Estudo de Caso em Benguela. Mestrado em

Bioestatística e Biometria. Supervisor: Teresa Oliveira

2) Susana Faria, Educational Data Mining e Learning Analytics na Melhoria do

Ensino Online, Mestrado em Estatística, Matemática e Computação,

especialidade em Estatística Computacional, Universidade Aberta

Supervisor: Angel A. Juan, Co-supervisor: Amílcar Oliveira.

3) Carla Susete Gonçalves Francisco, Delineamento Experimental em Blocos

Incompletos: Estudo de Casos Particulares. Supervisor: Teresa Oliveira,

Co-supervisor: Sandra Ferreira.

4) Elisa Henning, Planos Fatoriais e Método de Taguchi: Aplicação ao estudo de

resinas compostas fotopolimerizadas, usando o R, Mestrado em Estatística,

Matemática e Computação, especialidade em Estatística Computacional,

Universidade Aberta, Supervisor: Amílcar Oliveira, Co-supervisor: Teresa

Oliveira

5) Nelson Tchingui Jamba, Aplicação de Técnicas Estatísticas na Avaliação da

Qualidade do ensino primário no Município dos Gambos, Mestrado em

Estatística, Matemática e Computação, especialidade em Estatística

Computacional, Universidade Aberta. Supervisor: Amílcar Oliveira.

6) António Francisco da Silva Mondim, Metodologias de Superfície de Resposta:

uma investigação no âmbito da indústria cerâmica e do vidro. Mestrado em


32

Estatística, Matemática e Computação, área de especialização Estatística

Computacional. Supervisor: Teresa Oliveira

7) Carla Maria Hertizel de Noronha, Modelação Estatística: aplicação no uso de

catalisadores na produção de antibióticos. Mestrado em Bioestatística e

Biometria, Universidade Nova de Lisboa. Supervisor: Ruy Araújo Costa.

Co-supervisor: Teresa Oliveira.

8) Domingos Silva, Modelação e Inferência Estatística - Aplicações à Educação

Física Escola, Mestrado em Estatística, Matemática e Computação,

especialidade em Estatística Computacional, Universidade Aberta

Supervisor: Teresa Oliveira, Cosupervisor: Amílcar Oliveira

9) Marcolino José Ribeiro Sobral, Regressão Linear e Árvores de Regressão:

Previsão do desempenho na disciplina de Matemática, Mestrado em

Estatística, Matemática e Computação, especialidade em Estatística

Computacional, Universidade Aberta. Supervisor: Amílcar Oliveira.

10) Alberto Varela, Recursos Computacionales de e-learning y e-teaching de

Estadística. Mestrado de Matemáticas Avançadas, especialidade Estatística

e Investigação Operacional, UNED- Universidade Nacional de Ensino a

Distância, Madrid, Espanha. Supervisor: Teresa Oliveira


33

4.2 GROUP 2 : Probability, Modelling and Data Analysis Group Name/Designation

Probability, Modelling and Data Analysis (RG-MATH-LVT-Lisboa-6-949) Principal Investigator Dinis Duarte Ferreira Pestana Location of Group (Host Institution) Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa Keywords:

Meta-analysis; analysis of multivariate data; population dynamics;

environmentrics.

MEMBERS:

Principal Researcher: Dinis Duarte Ferreira Pestana

Integrated: Jorge Filipe Campinos Landerset Cadima

Maria Salomé Esteves Cabral

Rita Maria C. e Sá Fernandes de Vasconcelos

Fernando José Araújo Correia da Ponte Sequeira

Maria de Fátima Almeida Brilhante

Maria Fernanda Nunes Diamantino

Maria Helena Neves Queirós Gonçalves

Sandra Maria Freitas Mendonça

Sílvio Fil ipe Velosa

José Leonel Linhares da Rocha

Sandra Maria da Silva Figueiredo Aleixo

João Paulo Oliveira Martins

Miguel Martins Felgueiras

Ricardo Augusto Domingues Gomes de Sá e Sousa

Rui Fil ipe Vargas de Sousa Santos

Cristiana Maria Palmela Pereira

Colaborators (PhD): Maria Eugénia Santos Lino Pires da Graça Martins

Carlos Manuel Cravo Ventura

Luís Miguel dos Santos Reis Soares de Almeida

Regina Maria Baltazar Bispo Carita

Maria Luísa Silva Rocha

Pedro Duarte Leal Gomes Pestana

Colaborators (PhD Students): Délia Canha Gouveia Reis

Paulo Jose Figueira Semblano

Colaborators (non-PhD): António Alberto Oliveira

Arciolindo de Conceição Pinheiro





























34

4.1.1. Objectives and Main Achievements

(achievements in the proposed research, with indication of the corresponding

publication listed below; a partial list of conferences and seminars is also

appended)

I a) Combining p-values: autoregressive models, pseudo p-values and generalized p-

values, and effects of computational sampling augmentation: studies on the

estimation of the mixing parameter of the class Xm, combining information from

uniforms and extremes of two uniforms. (D. Pestana, M. F. Brilhante, F.

Sequeira, P. Semblano) — the team introduced the concepts of messy p-values

and messy generalized p-values, dealing with inappropriate use of repeated

experimentation when the first result doesn’t match the experimenter hopes,

respectively under the null and under the alternative hypothesis. The estimation of

the proportion of messy p-values gives rise to identifiability issues, and has

important bearings in their combination in meta analysis. Aside from the

publications II.35, II.50, the question has been presented and discussed in several

seminars and international conferences.

b) Statistics in medical research and in forensic sciences (C. Pereira, R. Santos, L.

Soares de Almeida, M. S. Cabral, F. Diamantino) — members of this team

participated in research in several areas of Medicine, namely on Forensics,

publishing II.14, II.15, II.17, II.24, II.25, II.32, II.34, II.53, II.57, II.58 and the

eBook II.2, Aside from those publications, many communications and posters

have been accepted in international conferences.

c) Extension of the composite sampling methodologies for continuous data and with

imperfect sensitivity and specificity, and cost control issues in sampling: research

on block sampling, and other methods of sampling costs control. (R. Santos, M.

Felgueiras, J.P. Martins) — several issues in d the research in pooled samples

theory, with applications on clinical tests and on acceptance sampling, and issues

in probability distributions, namely the investigation of distribution mixtures,

have been developed. In addition to the hierarchical methodologies, the array-

based group testing algorithms were investigated in order to develop more

efficient methodologies of classification, with low probability of misclassification

(measured by the specificity and sensitivity of each methodology), as well as

more robust prevalence rate estimation procedures. II.18 has received the “Best

Paper Award” at Computational and Applied Statistics – ICCSA 2014.

d) Distribution theory, namely in generalized Pareto, general extreme value and beta-

related distributions (D. Pestana, M. F. Brilhante, S. Mendonça, F. Se ueira, M.

Felgueiras, R. Santos, J. P. Martins) — aside from the publications II.5, II,6, II.9,

II.301, II.35, and II.41, focused in the investigation of mixtures, on the

relationships between maxima and the mean, and on products and products of

powers of beta random variables, there has been investigtion on contaminated p-

values, that are mixtures of betas, and on the distribution theory of k-th order

statistics in geometrically thinned sequences, both exact and asymptotic.


35

II a) Impact of missing and dropout in the approaches previously developed to

analyze discrete longitudinal data analysis (M. S. Cabral, . Gonçalves) gave rise

to the publication of II.37, II.42, and participated in international conferences,

namely presenting results at COMPSTAT.

b) New results associated with Mahalanobis distances and their representation in the

space of variables. (J. Cadima) — results on the geometric characterization of

Mahalanobis distances in the space of variables, and its consequences in both

theory and practice have been published in II.40, and further results are under

reviewing.

III a) Study of dynamics and bifurcations properties of continuous-defined one-

dimensional maps, in a three parameter space. Big bang bifurcations and the

"box-within-a box" structure. Study of different types of couplings and the

respective synchronization analysis (J. Leonel Rocha, S. Aleixo) — a family of

von Bertallanffy applications has been widely studied. The complexity of the

system was measured using Lyapunov exponents and the synchronization interval

was computed as a function of two biological parameters: growth rate and the

asymptotic weight. A new one-dimensional discrete dynamic systems: a family of

applications proportional to the right side of Richards growth equation, has been

established. The bifurcation structure of Richards functions in the two-

dimensional parameters space (β, r), where β is associated with growth

retardation phenomenon, and r is the intrinsic growth rate was investigated in

detail. Sufficient conditions have been established for the occurrence of

extinction, stability, period doubling, chaos and not admissibility. Networks were

considered having in each node a Richards function. Some results were obtained

on the synchronization level when the topology of the network is fixed and

change the local dynamics and, when the local dynamics is fixed and the global

dynamics of the network changes. Publicstions: II.12, II.13, II.26, II.27, II.28,

II.289, II.30, II.38,

b) Chaotic population dynamics models and extreme value theory (D. Pestana, M. F.

Brilhante, F. Sequeira, P. Semblano)

IV Statistics in environmetrics and ecology, namely use of extreme value in the

structural analysis of geophysics data from Madeira (S. Mendonça, D. Gouveia-

Reis, R. Vasconcelos, M. Salom Cabral) — the precipitation in Madeira Island

was studied, using the extreme value theory in and in II.43, II.44, II.52, and in the

Ph. D. thesis II.1; in II.23, statistical methods have been used to understand the

beneficial effects of pine thinning.

V) Reinforcement of the collaboration with Team 1, namely:

a) Tail index estimation; Mop-estimators (M. F. Brilhante, D. Pestana, P. Semblano)

II.4, II.7, II.19, II.20,

b) Structure of randomly stopped k-order statistics, namely with Panjer general count

models subordinators (D. Pestana, S. Mendonça) — basic count distribution were

investigated in II.10, II.46,


36

VI a) History of Probability and Statistics, namely the analysis of early portuguese

publications on the foundations of Statistics. (Rui Santos, D. Pestana) — The

research on the History of Probability and Statistics in Portugal in the early XXth

century was developed in order to identify influences of Henry Poincaré's ideas

about randomness, probability, and certainty, mainly in the grounds of Probability

calculation proposed in the doctoral thesis of Diogo Pacheco d'Amorim in 1914.

Aside from the publications II.49, II.56, there has been regular participation on

seminars in the field, with presentation of results.

b) Statistics and the experimental method, and related issues in Philosophy of

Science: reinforcement of the collaboration with Centro de Filosofia das Ciências

da Universidade de Lisboa, with emphasis on the field of statistical methods

inknowledge building. (D. Pestana) — aside from collaboration in the Ph. D.

program in the Philosophy of Sciences, results have been published in II.50, II.55.

c) Documentation for Teaching of Statistics: draft of the second volume of Pestana

and Velosa: Introdução Probabilidade e Estatística Gulbenkian manual (D.

Pestana, Rui Santos and Eug nia Graça Martins) — compilation of results has

been used in building up counter-examples and exercices; some material has been

published in II.33, II.39.

d) Statistics for the layman: conferences and papers on the many beauties and uses of

Statistics, with a caveat on the abuse of Statistics. (D. Pestana, S. Mendonça) —

this topic has been developed mainly via conferences, and produced the

publications II.53, II.54, II.55, II.56, II.58.

e) Translation of Statistical texts: preparation of a revised and enlarged on-line

edition o [NB1] (D. Pestana, C. Ventura, P. Pestana, with the collaboration of

M.I. Gomes) — gathering results continued, but a on-line second edition has been

postponed until more significant progress is achieved.


37

4.2.2. Publications

Ph. D Thesis

II.1 • Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Madeira Island”, D lia Canha

Gouveia Reis, Doutoramento em Matemática (Especialidade de Probabilidades e

Estatística) - Co-orientação de Sandra Maria Freitas Mendonça e de Luiz Carlos

Guerreiro Lopes, Universidade da Madeira, 12 de dezembro de 2014

(“Aprovada”, por unanimidade)

Book

II.2 • Palmela Pereira, C.: Medicina Dentária Forense: “As Potencialidades e os

Limites das Ciências Forenses na Investigação Criminal Medicina Dentária

Forense: As potencialidades e os limites das Ciências Forenses na Investigação

Criminal. Conferência Incluída no Ciclo de Conferências: Crime e Violência,

Academia das Ciências de Lisboa, Novembro e Dezembro de 2012”. Academia

das Ciências de Lisboa, Lisboa. 2014. e-book, com ISBN: 978-972-623-170-7.

Book (editors)

II.3 • Pacheco, A., Santos, R., de Oliveira, M.R., and Paulino. C.D. (2014). New

Advances in Statistical Modeling and Applications, Studies in Theoretical and

Applied Statistics, Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies, Springer.

http://www.springer.com/statistics/statistical+theory+and+methods/book/978-3-

319-05322-6

Chapters in books

II.4 • Brilhante, M.F., Gomes, M.I., and Pestana, D. (2014). The MOP EVI-

Estimator Revisited. New Advances in Statistical Modeling and Applications,

Springer, 163-175. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-05323-3_16

II.5 • Brilhante, M.F., Pestana, D., and Rocha, M.L. (2014). Cantor Sets with Random

Repair. New Advances in Statistical Modeling and Applications, Springer, 75-83.

DOI:10.1007/ 978-3-319-05323-3_7

II.6 • Felgueiras, M.; Santos, R .; Martins, J.P. (2014). Some Results on Gaussian

Mixtures. 10th International Conference of Computational Methods in Sciences

and Engineering, American Institute of Physics, AIP Conf. Proc. 1618, 523-526.

DOI: 10.1063/1.4897790

II.7 • Gomes, M.I., Brilhante, M.F., and Pestana, D. (2014). A Mean-of-order-p Class

of Value-at-Risk Estimators, in Kitsos, Ch., Oliveira, T.P., Rigas, A., and Gulati,

http://www.springer.com/statistics/statistical+theory+and+methods/book/978-3-319-05322-6



38

S. (eds) Theory and Practice of Risk Assessment, Springer-Verlag (accepted). Já

foi publicado? Não o encontro na Springer

II.8 • Martins, J.P. , Felgueiras M. , Santos, R. (2014). Maximum Likelihood

Estimation in Pooled Sample Tests, 10th International Conference of

Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering, American Institute of

Physics, AIP Conf. Proc. 1618, 543-546. DOI: 10.1063/1.4897790

II.9 • Martins, J.P., Santos, R., and Sousa, R. (2014). Testing the maximum by the

mean in quantitative group tests. In Pacheco, A; Santos, R; Rosário, M; and

Paulino, C. (Eds.), New Advances in Statistical Modeling and Applications,


Societies, Springer-Verlag, pp. 55-63. DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-05323-3_5.

II.10 • Mendonça, S., Pestana, D., and Gomes, M. I. (2014). Randomly Stopped k-

th Order Statistics, in Kitsos, Ch., Oliveira, T.P., Rigas, A., and Gulati, S. (eds.)

Theory and Practice of Risk Assessment, Springer Verlag (accepted).

II.11 • Pestana, D., Rocha, M. L., and Se ueira, F. (2014) Finite Populations

Sampling Strategies and Costs Control, in Kitsos, Ch., Oliveira, T.P., Rigas, A.,

and Gulati, S. (eds.) Theory and Practice of Risk Assessment, Springer Verlag

(accepted).

II.12 • Rocha, J.L., Aleixo, S.M. and Caneco, A., (2014) Chaotic Dynamics and

Synchronization of von Bertalanffy’s Growth Models, In Modeling, Dynamics,

Optimization and Bioeconomics II, Bourguignon, J. P., Jelstch, R., Pinto, A. A.

and Viana, M. (Eds): Springer Proceedings in Mathematics, Springer-Verlag

Berlin Heidelberg, Vol. 2, Chap. 30, 515-539.

II.13 • Rocha, J.L., Taha, A-K. and Fournier-Prunaret, D., (2015), From Weak

Allee Effect to no Allee Effect in Richards’ Growth Models, In Nonlinear Maps

and their Applications, López-Ruiz, R., et al. (Eds), Springer Proc. in

Mathematics and Statistics 112, Chap.16, in press. (DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-

12328-8-16)

II.14 • Palmela Pereira, C.: “Medicina Dentária Forense: Áreas de Intervenção”. In.

Enfermagem Forense. Volume 1 Lisboa: Lidel, 2014. ISBN 9789727579853.

II.15 • Palmela Pereira, C.: “Marcas de mordedura: A importância do reconhecimento

e da documentação fotográfica forense do vestígio físico”. In. Enfermagem

Forense. Volume 2 Lisboa: Lidel, 2014. ISBN 9789897520600.

II.16 • Santos, Rui; Martins, João; Felgueiras, Miguel (2014). An Overview of

Quantitative Continuous Compound Analysis. Mathematics of Planet Earth:

Dynamics, Games and Science. Springer, Berlin. In press


39

International journals with referee

II.17 • Abreu, D., Cabral, M. S. and Ribeiro F. (2014). Factors associated with longer

delays in reperfusion in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, IJC Heart &

Vessels 4, 97-101. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijchv.2014.06.007

II.18 • Felgueiras, M.; Martins, J.; Santos, R. (2014). Distributions Families in

Counting Bacteria for Compound Sampling. Lecture Notes in Computer Science,

8581, 539–551. Springer, Berlin. Best Paper Award. Scopus.

II.19 • Gomes, M.I., Brilhante, M. F., Caeiro, F., and Pestana. (2015): A new

partially reduced-bias mean-of-order p class of extreme value index estimators.

Computational Statistics and Data Analysis , 82, 223-237. DOI:?

II.20 • Gomes, M.I., Brilhante, M.F., and Pestana, D. (2014). New reduced-bias

estimators of a positive extreme value index. Communications in Statistics -

Simulation and Computation. DOI:10.1080/03610918.2013.875567

II.21 • CMSim 4(4), 315-322.

II.22 • Nunes, A., Oliveira, G., Cabral, M. S., Bran uinho C. and Correia, O. (2014).

Beneficial effect of pine thinning in mixed plantations through changes in the

understory functional composition. Ecological Engineering. Ecological

Engineering 70, 387–396.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925857414002791

II.23 • Palmela Pereira, C.: Forensic Dentistry and uman Identification: Legal

Framework. Opinion Article: J Civil Legal Sci 2014, 3:132. doi: 10.4172/2169-

0170.1000132

II.24 • Palmela Pereira, C., Franco Costa, J., Costa Santos, J., Mendonça M. C.:

“Role of physical properties of dental restorative biomaterials in criminalistics”.

Journal Research and Reports in Forensic Medical Science 2014; 4:19-24.

http://dx.doi.org/10.2147/rrfms.s51279 ISSN: 2230-2476.

II.25 • Palmela Pereira, C., Franco Costa, J., Costa Santos, J.,: The Role of Forensic

Dentistry for Identification of a Criminal Sexual Assault: A Casework Report. J

Civil Legal Sci. Accepted in 30 december 2014.

II.26 • Rocha, J.L., Fournier-Prunaret, D. and Taha, A-K., (2014) Big Bang

Bifurcations and Allee Effect in Blumberg’s Dynamics, Nonlinear Dynamics, 77,

4, pp. 1749-1771. (DOI 10.1007/s11071-014-1415-0)

II.27 Rocha, J.L., Aleixo, S.M. and Caneco, A. (2013). Synchronization in von

Bertalanffy’s models, CMSIM - Chaotic Modeling and Simulation Journal 4, pp.


40

519-528, ISSN 2241-0503. (Note: the effective date of publication has been

2014.)

II.28 • Rocha, J.L., Aleixo, S.M. and Caneco, A., (2014) Synchronization in

Richards’ Chaotic Systems, Journal of Applied Nonlinear Dynamics, 3, 2, pp.

115-130, DOI 10.5890/JAND.2014.06.002.

II.29 • Rocha, J.L., Taha, A-K. and Fournier-Prunaret, D., (2015), Symbolic

Dynamics and Big Bang Bifurcation in Weibull-Gompertz-Fr chet’s Growth

Models, Applied Mathematics & Information Sciences, in press.

II.30 • Rocha, J.L., Grácio, C., Fernandes, S. and Caneco, A. (2015), Spectral and

Dynamical Invariants in a Complete Clustered Network, Applied Mathematics &

Information Sciences, in press.

II.31 • Santos, Rui; Martins, João; Felgueiras, Miguel (2014). Known mean,

unknown maxima? Communications in Statistics - Simulation and Computation.

DOI:10.1080/03610918.2013.773345. Scopus, ISI.

National journals with referee

II.32 • Palmela Pereira, C.: “The medico-legal and criminalistics importance of

saliva: Update of its application in forensic sciences”. Revista Portuguesa de

Estomatologia, Medicina Dentária e Cirurgia Maxilofacial 2014; 55:3-6.

II.33 • Salom , P., Santos, R. e Cotrim, L. (2014). Simulação -uma aplicação ao

problema da ruína do jogador, Boletim da Sociedade Portuguesa de Matemática

70, pp. 85-103.

II.34 • Santos, P., Santos, J. C., Palmela Pereira, C.: Patricia Santos, Jorge Costa

Santos, Cristiana Pereira. “Assessment Of Postraumatic Orofacial Damage Based

On Portuguese Civil, Criminal And Labor Laws”. Revista de Criminologia e

Ciências Penitenciárias 2014, 4(3): online 1 de setembro de 2014. ISSN: 2238-

1678

Conference proceedings

II.35 • Brilhante, M.F., Gomes, M.I., and Pestana, D.: Further Results on Order

Statistics and Products of Functions of Independent Generalized Beta Random

Variables. In T.E. Tsimos, G. Psihoyios, Ch. Tsitouras and Z. Anatassi (eds.),

Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conference

Proceedings.

II.36 • Brilhante, M.F., Pestana. D., Semblano, P., and Sequeira, F.: On the

Proportion of Non Uniform Reported p-Values. In T.E. Tsimos, G. Psihoyios, Ch.


41

Tsitouras and Z. Anatassi (eds.), Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics

ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conference Proceedings

II.37 • Cabral, M. S. and Gonçalves, M. . (2014). A simulation study to assess

statistical approaches for longitudinal count data. Proceedings of

COMPSTAT´2014. 21st International Conference on Computational Statistics,

25-34.URL: http://www.compstat2014.org/auxil/Proceedings-

COMPSTAT2014.pdf. (ISBN 978-2-8399-1347-8)

II.38 • Caneco, A. and Rocha, J.L., (2014) Synchronization and Information

Transmission in Networks, In Proceedings of the ECIT 2012, W. Jarczyk, et al.

(Eds), EDP Sciences, ESAIM: Proceedings and Surveys, vol. 46, pp. 111-124.

(DOI http://dx.doi.org/10.1051/proc/201446010)

II.39 • Dias, A. e Santos, R. (2014). Materiais para o uso da simulação no ensino de

probabilidades, Atas da Conferência Internacional de Investigação, Práticas e

Contextos em Educação, p. 409.

II.40 • Cadima, J. (2014). Distâncias de Mahalanobis, variáveis originais e

componentes principais, , in: Pereira, I., Freitas, A., Scotto, M., Silva, M. E.,

Paulino, C. D. (editores), Estatística: a Ciência da Incerteza, Atas do XXI

Congresso Anual da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Edições SPE, páginas

43-50, (ISBN: 978-972-8890-35-3).

II.41 • Felgueiras, M.; Santos, R .; Martins, J. (2014). Some Results on Gaussian

Mixtures. International Conference Of Computational Methods In Sciences And

Engineering 2014. AIP Conf. Proc. 1618, 523-526.

II.42 • Gonçalves, M. . and Cabral, M. S. (2014). Incomplete longitudinal binary

responses in matginal model. Proceedings of COMPSTAT´2014, 21st

International Conference on Computational Statistics, 111-117.URL:

http://www.compstat2014.org/auxil/Proceedings-COMPSTAT2014.pdf (ISBN

978-2-8399-1347-8)

II.43 • Gouveia, D., Lopes, L. G., and Mendonça, S. (2014), “Application of the

Theory of Extremes to the Study of Precipitation in Madeira Island: Statistical

Choice of Extreme Domains of Attraction” in Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira,

M.d.R., Paulino, C.D. (Eds.), “New Advances in Statistical Modeling and

Applications”, Series: Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics/Selected

Papers of the Statistical Societies, 187-194, Springer (ISBN 978-3-319-05323-3).

II.44 • Gouveia-Reis, D., Lopes, L. G. e Mendonça, S. (2014), Aplicação do método

dos excessos de nível a valores extremos de precipitação na ilha da Madeira, in:

Pereira, I., Freitas, A., Scotto, M., Silva, M. E., Paulino, C. D. (editores),

Estatística: a Ciência da Incerteza, Atas do XXI Congresso Anual da Sociedade



42

Portuguesa de Estatística, Edições SPE, páginas 43-50, (ISBN: 978-972-8890-

35-3).

II.45 • Martins, J.P. , Felgueiras M. , Santos, R. (2014). Maximum Likelihood

Estimation in Pooled Sample Tests. International Conference Of Computational

Methods In Sciences And Engineering 2014. AIP Conf. Proc. 1618, 543-546.

II.46 • Mendonça, S., Pestana, D. and Gomes, M. I. (04-02-2014 - data de aceitação

de publicação, via email), Randomly Stopped k-th Order Statistics, In Risk

Assessment Challenges: Theory and Practice, by Springer Proceedings in

Mathematics and Statistics (in press).

II.47 • Pestana, P., & Reiss, J. (2014, January). Intelligent Audio Production

Strategies Informed by Best Practices. In Audio Engineering Society Conference:

53rd International Conference: Semantic Audio. Audio Engineering Society.

II.48 • Pestana, P. D., & Reiss, J. D. (2014). A Cross-Adaptive Dynamic Spectral

Panning Technique. In Proceedings of the 17th International Conference on

Digital Audio Effects (DAFx-14), Erlangen, Germany.

II.49 • Santos, R. (2014). O Problema da Definição de Probabilidade Contínua e o

Conceito Ponto Imagem de Pacheco d’Amorim. In Nobre, S., Bertato, F. e

Saraiva, L. (Eds.): Anais/Actas do 6º Encontro Luso-Brasileiro de História da

Matemática, Sociedade Brasileira de História da Matemática, pp. 511-534. eISBN

978-85-89097-67-3 http://www.rbhm.org.br/EBOOK-6oLuso-Bras.htm

II.50 • Brilhante, M.F., and Pestana, D. (2014). Meta-Análise e Construção do

Conhecimento. Atas do II Congresso de Ciência e Desenvolvimento dos Açores

& VII Congresso de Gestão e Conservação da Natureza, Novos Sonhos para uma

Realidade Pós-Crise, Terceira, 35-42.

Other Publications

II.51 • Felgueiras, Miguel; Santos, Rui; Martins, João (2014). Techniques for

counting bacteria in a pooled sample. Revista de Saúde Pública, 48, 142. Scopus,

ISI.

II.52 • Gouveia-Reis, D., Lopes, L. G., and Mendonça, S. (2014), Statistical

modelling of extreme rainfall in mountain regions: the case of Madeira Island. In:

Eco CC’14 - Book of Abstracts, Instituto Politécnico de Tomar, 3rd

International Conference on Ecohydrology, Soil and Climate Change, Tomar,

Portugal, 10-12 September 2014, page 111 (ISBN: 978-972-9473-85-2).


43

II.53 • Granado, A.C. and Santos, R. (2014). Compound clinical trials: a

comparative simulation study of its accuracy and cost, Revista de Saúde Pública

48, p. 226. Scopus, ISI.

II.54 • Pacheco, A., Ribeiro, M. ., Rosário, M.O. e Santos, R. (2014). Uma

excursão pelos moliceiros da ria de Aveiro nas comemorações do Ano

Internacional da Estatística, Boletim da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística,

Primavera de 2014, pp. 6-9.

II.55 • Pestana, D, e Brilhante, M. F. (2014). Ciência Sem Estatística? in Afinal o

que É a Ciência, Olga Pombo e Ricardo Santos (Orgs.), O que é a ciência?

Lisboa: CFCUL/Ciência Viva, 2014. ISBN 978-989-8247-70-4

II.56 • Santos, R. (2014). Exposição da istória da Estatística no Ano Internacional

da Estatística, Boletim da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Primavera de

2014, p. 13-15.

II.57 • Santos, Rui; Felgueiras, Miguel; Martins, João (2014). Measures to assess

the suitability of quantitative compound tests with the dilution effect. Revista de

Saúde Pública, 48, 135. Scopus, ISI.

II.58 • Mendes J., VencesBrito A., Ferreira M.A.R., Fernandes R., Velosa S.,

Prudente J. (2014) “Avaliação da Potência Anaeróbia em Jovens Futebolistas”

Revista da Unidade de Investigação do Instituto Politécnico de Santarém, n.º 3

vol. 2, pp. 73 – 83.http://www.ipsantarem.-pt/arquivo/category/uni

dades/unidade-de-investigacao-uiips/revista-da-uiips

Presentations in conferences, workshops and seminars

• Brilhante, M.F., Pestana. D., Semblano, P., and Sequeira, F.: On the Proportion of

Non Uniform Reported p-Values. 12th International Conference of Numerical

Analysis and Applied Mathematics, que decorreu no Hotel Rodos de 22 a 28 de

setembro de 2014, Rhodes, Grécia.

• Cabral, M. S. and Gonçalves, M. H. (2014). Generalized linear mixed effects

models for longitudinal binary responses with different covariance structures.

One-day Workshop on Spatio-temporal Models in Epidemiology and Health,

Lisboa, Portugal.

• Felgueiras, M.; Martins, J.; Santos, R. (2014, julho). Distributions Families in

Counting Bacteria for Compound Sampling. Computational and Applied

Statistics – ICCSA 2014. Best Paper Award.

• Felgueiras, M.; Santos, R .; Martins, J. (2014, Maio). Techniques for counting

bacteria in a pooled sample. 2º. Congresso Internacional de Saúde do IPleiria.

• Felgueiras, M.; Santos, R .; Martins, J. (2014, Abril). Some Results on Gaussian

Mixtures. 10TH International Conference of Computational Methods in Sciences

and Engineering.

• Martins, J.P. , Felgueiras M. , Santos, R. (2014, Abril). Maximum Likelihood

Estimation in Pooled Sample Tests. 10TH International Conference of

Computational Methods in Sciences and Engineering.


44

• Pestana, D., and Brilhante. M.F.: Further Extensions of the Verhulst Population

Growth Model. 8th Workshop on Statistics, Mathematics and Computation in

Honour of Professor Christos Kitsos, que decorreu de 12 a 15 de março de 2014

no Instituto Superior de Ciências Económicas e Empresariais de Cabo Verde,

Praia, ilha de Santiago, Cabo Verde.

• Santos, R .; Martins, J.; Felgueiras, M. (2014, Maio). Measures to assess the

suitability of quantitative compound tests with the dilution effect. 2º. Congresso

Internacional de Saúde do IPleiria.

• Brilhante, M.F. Como Contar? Encontro Regional de Professores de

Matemática, que decorreu na Escola Básica 2,3 de Ginetes, a 5 de setembro de

2014.

• Brilhante, M.F., and Pestana, D. (2014). Meta-Análise e Construção do

Conhecimento. II Congresso de Ciência e Desenvolvimento dos Açores & VII

Congresso de Gestão e Conservação da Natureza, que decorreu de 27 a 29 de

junho de 2014, na ilha de Terceira.

• Brilhante, M.F., Pestana, D., Semblano, P., e Sequeira, F.:. Quantos Valores de

Prova Reportados são Efetivamente Uniformes? Segundas Jornadas de Estatística

e Computação da Universidade Aberta, que decorreu a 7 de junho de 2014 em

Porto Mós.

Martins, J. P.: “Testes laboratoriais a amostras miscigenadas”, III Seminário

Geracional, CEAUL, Lisboa. 15 de janeiro de 2014

• Mendonça, S.: “Funções monótonas de ordem r e probabilidade”, III Seminário

Geracional, CEAUL, Lisboa. 15 de janeiro de 2014

• Palmela Pereira, C.: “Current methodologies and applications: Role of Physical

Properties of Dental Restorative Biomaterials in Criminalistics – Report on a case

study”. Conference at the 2nd International Meeting in Forensic Sciences and

Criminal Behaviour, Instituto Superior de Ciências da Saúde Egas Moniz, 23rd

and 24th May 2014.

• Pestana, D.: “O meu affaire duradouro com a Ber®ta”, III Seminário Geracional,

CEAUL, Lisboa. 15 de janeiro de 2014

• Pestana, D.: História da Probabvilidade e da Estatística, 2º Workshop A Ciência

dos Dados, Universidade dos Açores, 8 a 10 de Maio de 2014.

• Pestana, D.: Usos e Abusos da Estatística, 2º Workshop A Ciência dos Dados,

Universidade dos Açores, 8 a 10 de Maio de 2014.

• Pestana, D., Estatística e Ciências Humanas, Seminário, Programa Doutoral em

Filosofia das Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa.

• Pestana, D.; Probabilidade, Estatística e Ciência, Universidade da Madeira, 12 de

Dezembro de 2014.

• Pestana, D., Rocha, M. L.: Estatística e Cidadania ,II Congresso de Ciência e

Desenvolvimento dos Açores & VII Congresso de Gestão e Conservação da

Natureza, que decorreu de 27 a 29 de junho de 2014, na ilha de Terceira.

• Pestana, D.: Algumas Ideias Loucas, Jornadas de Matemática, Estatística e

Computação, IST, 2014.

• Pestana, D.: Paradoxos e Controvérsias no Progresso da Probabilidade e da

Estatística, soirées culturais da Universidade do Minho, 2014.

• Pestana, D.: Verhulst Model Revisited, Mini-Workshop on Extremes and

Extensions of the Verhulst Growth Model — Applications to Economics and

Finance, Faculdade de Economia da Universidade do Porto, 2014.

• Ciência sem Estatística?, ciclo de conferências “Afinal o ue a Ciência”,

Ciência Viva, 2014.


45

• Pestana, D.: O Meu Affaire Duradouro com a Be®ta, Seminários Geracionais da

Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Universidade de Lisboa, 2014.

• Pestana, P. (2014). Sistemas de Produção Inteligentes. Semana PTM, ESMAE.

Segmentation Practices. Mixgenius Inc.

• Pestana, D.: Ao Acaso. O imp rio da incerteza e a forma como podemos

(devemos?) tornar o acaso um aliado .

4.2.3. Advanced training

Ph.D. completed

Délia Canha Gouveia Reis: Statistical Modelling of Extreme Rainfall in Madeira

Island”, , Doutoramento em Matemática (Especialidade de Probabilidades e

Estatística) - Supervised by Sandra Maria Freitas Mendonça e de Luiz Carlos

Guerreiro Lopes, Universidade da Madeira, 12 de dezembro de 2014 (“Aprovada”,

por unanimidade)

M.Sc. completed

Sara Dias Narciso, 2014 'Morbilidade associada com a aspiração e biópsia da medula

óssea' Supervisor: Maria Fernanda Diamantino, Ana Maria Batalha Reis.


46


47

4.3 GROUP 3: Statistical Modelling in Environmental and Life Sciences

Group Name/Designation

Statistical Modelling in Environmental and Life Sciences

RG-LVT-6-951

Principal Investigator

MARIA ANTÓNIA DA CONCEIÇÃO ABRANTES AMARAL TURKMAN

Location of Group (Host Institution)

Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade de Lisboa

Keywords:

Non-linear time series; Bayesian Statistics; Environmental Statistics; Statistics in

Genetics; Spatial Statistics; Survival Analysis; Statistics in Health; Categorical

data Analysis; Missing values.

Funding, source 1) PTDC/MAT/118335/2010

“Statistical Methods in Environmental and Epidemiological Processes”

Principal Investigator: K.F. Turkman

Starting: 1 January 2012; Finishing: 31 December 2014

Funding: 48,000 Euros

Team from CEAUL: K F Turkman, MA Turkman, P Bermudez, M Antunes, L

Sousa, V Andreozzi, S Ramos, V Inacio, P Pereira

Other members of the team: José Miguel Pereira, Manuel Scotto

2) FCT: PTDC/SAU-EPI/115853/2009

"Dengue in Madeira archipelago.Risk assessment for the emergence of

Aedesaegypti mediated arboviroses and tools for vector control."

Principal Investigator: Carla Sousa.

Team from CEAUL: L Gonçalves. 2012-2014

Starting: 1 January 2012; Finishing: 31 December 2014

3) FCT: PTDC/SAU-SAP/113523/2009

"Ecoepidemiology of Dirofilariaspp: molecular characterization, potential

vectors and transmission dynamics.

Principal Investigator: Silvana Belo.

Team from CEAUL: L Gonçalves,

Starting 2011; Finishing: 2014.

4) FCT: PTDC/SAU-SAP/119199/2010

"New arboviruses isolated in Portugal. Risk assessment and public health

application".

Principal Investigator: Maria João P. F. Alves.

Team from CEAUL M Antunes

Starting: 2012; Finishing: 2014.

FP7-ICT-2013-10


48

"PERsonalised ICT Supported Service for Independent Living and Active

Ageing"

Europeanproject

Team from CEAUL: KF Turkman, MA Turkman, M Antunes (10/2013 – 10/2016)

MEMBERS:

Principal Researcher: Maria Antónia Amaral Turkman

Integrated: Kamil Feridun Turkman

Carlos Daniel Paulino

Maria Lucíl ia Salema e Carvalho

Ana Luísa Trigoso Papoila da Silva

Cristina Maria Tristão Simões Rocha

Giovani Loiola da Silva

Isabel Cristina Maciel Natário

Lisete Maria Ribeiro de Sousa

Luzia Augusta Pires Gonçalves

Maríl ia Cristina de Sousa Antunes

Patrícia Cortés de Zea Bermudez

Paulo José de Jesus Soares

Vanda Calhau Fernandes Inácio

Valeska Andreozzi

Laurens de Haan

Carina Soares da Silva Fortes

Maria da Conceição Rodrigues Ribeiro

Maria João Fernandes Pereira Polidoro

Sandra Cristina Faria Ramos

Ivone Maria Ribeiro Figueiredo da Silva Rosa

Nuno Henriques dos Santos Sepulveda

Colaborators (PhD): Helena Bacelar-Nicolau

Ana Isabel Carita

Jorge M.Mendes

Júlia Maria Vitorino Teles

Manuel González Scotto

Margarida Maria Teixeira Diniz Mendes Leal

Maria Fernanda Adão dos Santos Fernandes de Oliveira

Miguel de Carvalho

Susana Maria Gouveia Rosado Ganhão

Baltazar Emanuel Guerreiro Nunes Bravo Nunes

Fernando José Malheiro de Magalhães

Colaborators (PhD Students): Ana Sofia Monteiro de Araújo Soares

Maria Inês Tomás de Oliveira Pascoal de Sousa Dias

Carlos José Brás Geraldes

Paula Cristina Sequeira Pereira

Ricardo Miguel Vieira de São João

Ana Patrícia Subtil da Graça Freitas Garcia

Clandio Timm Marques

Soraia Alexandra Gonçalves Pereira

Colaborators (non-PhD): André Simões Sintra

Lil iana do Carmo Cerdeira Antunes

4.3.1. Objectives













































49

The main objectives of this group is to: (A) provide relevant methodological

contributions to probability and statistical issues in modelling environmental and

biological data and publish the results in peer review journals, (B) keep

interdisciplinary collaboration; (C) continue the Ph.D. program on the main research

themes of the group; (D) present the research at international and national

conferences; (D) organize seminars, workshops and advanced courses of general

interest in the areas of expertise of the group; (F) serve the community in general by

giving advise on statistical issues.

[A] Methodological work is carried on the following general themes

1. Extreme value theory,

2. Time series with particular relevance to non-linear time series;

3. Spatio-temporal non-homogeneous marked point processes

4. Bayesian hierarchical modeling and spatio-temporal analysis

5. Semi-parametric and non-parametric Bayesian analysis

6. Categorical data analysis with missing responses;

7. State space and Dynamic models

8. ROC analysis

9. Microarray data analysis

[B] Application work on

1. Forest Fires: Collaborative work with researchers from the Institute of

Agriculture of the Technical University of Lisbon (ISA/UTL). Modelling and

analysis of forest fire data; Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis; Spatio-temporal

non-homogeneous marked point processes; Models for the analysis of fire

frequency data.

2. Road safety: Collaborative work with Laboratorio Nacional de Engenharia

Civil on application of generalized dynamic linear models to Portugal road

accident data using R-INLA.

3. Immunology and Genetics: Collaborative work with researchers from

Gulbenkian Institute of Science, University College of London, University of

Oxford;

4. Biology, Medicine and Epidemiology with researchers from University of São

Paulo - Brazil , Hasselt University – Belgium, University of Texas at Houston

and Austin and Portuguese Oncology Institute - Portugal

5. Microarray data: Collaborative work with researchers from IMM (FMUL),

BioFIG (FCUL) IHMT (UNL) in the development of statistical methods for

the analysis of Microarray and Next Generation Sequencing data.

6. Epidemiology Medicine and Health: Collaborative work with INSA, Instituto

Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, and DGS, Direção Geral de Saúde on a

model for the Legionnaires’ disease outbreaks.; Collaborative work on the

applications of statistical methods in tropical medicine: Infections in hospitals,

human resources, dengue and dirofilariasis studies; analytic strategies in

public health that incorporate multiple levels: city, urban areas, neighborhoods

and individuals. Collaborative work with researchers from Fio Cruz, Brasil on

application of screening methods to Dengue epidemics; Collaborative work

with researchers from Research Unit of Centro Hospitalar de Lisboa Central.

7. Fisheries: modelling the dynamics of the black scabbardfish in NE Atlantic

through a space state model, application of stochastic frontier analysis to


50

fisheries, in particular the black scabbardfish fishery and the start of a project

for dealing with the ray fishery in the Portuguese continental waters

(evaluation of its exploration state, and the study of technical measures for its

management).

The research group also aims to continue international collaboration; to keep

interdisciplinarity activities; to collaborate with scientific societies in their activities;

to collaborate with society in general, by acting as peer reviewers to national and

international journals, by giving advise in statistical issues and by organizing short

courses, workshops and seminars for the scientific community.

4.3.2. Main Achievements

The general indicators of productivity for this group, for 2014, were:

1. at the international level, 1 book, 1 book edition, 1 chapter of a book, 3

conference proceedings, 36 international publications in peer review journals

and 18 accepted publications (5 of which were published on paper periodicals

early in 2015 and 3 as chapters of books); 10 Invited talks in international

conferences and 9 invited seminars; 28 communications.

2. at the national level, 1 book, 1 book edition, 3 conference proceedings, 5 peer

review publications, 6 invited talks in national conferences, 8 invited

seminars, 16 communications at national conferences.

3. 2 PhD thesis were completed and 3 M.Sc. theses.

4. Organization of 1 workshop; members of scientific and/or organizing

committee of 7 meetings, 1 advanced course and 10 specialized courses.

The main achievements during 2014 were:

1. Extreme value theory: KF Turkman continued his work on the asymptotic

joint distributions of the maxima of stationary processes and their discrete versions

with Laurens de Haan, on issues related to max-stable processes. L de Haan worked

with two members of the group 1: with A Ferreira worked on the Generalized Pareto

Process (the paper was published on Bernoulli) and on the block maxima method in

extreme value theory (the paper will be published in 2015 in Annals of Statistics);

with C. Neves worked on tail trend detection: modeling relative risk. This paper will

appear in Extremes. With some international co-workers he also worked on several

other issues on extreme value theory. The papers will appear in 2015 in JRSS B and

Bernoulli.

PZ Bermudez worked on the application of Generalized Pareto Models to extreme

temperatures in Spain. The work, initiated in 2013, was published in 2014 in

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment.

2. Time series: The book on Non-linear Time Series:Extreme Events and Integer

Value Problems, was finished and published by Springer in 2014. P de Zea Bermudez

jointly with KF Turkman and MA Turkman, worked on problems related to

computational methodological issues, namely on the construction of an ABC method

for bilinear processes. This work will be published during 2015 as a chapter of a book

dedicated to celebrate the 60th anniversary of Nazaré Lopes.

3. Spatial and Temporal Models: P Pereira in her PhD thesis defended in

December 2014, had as main challenge the study of spatio-temporal non-

homogeneous marked point processes as models for fire data. In order to study the


51

spatio-temporal point patterns of wildfires, a preliminary analysis via spatial point

processes was applied to satellite imagery data of annual records of observed fire

scars and their locations in Portugal for 31 years. A spatio-temporal log Gaussian Cox

process was also fitted to the data to model the area burned, following a stochastic

partial differential equation (SPDE) approach. In this way it was shown how the point

configuration affects the dimension of the fire. Based on these models, two maps were

created: one associated to the density of fires and the other associated to the area

burned. It was adopted a Bayesian inference framework and use the Integrated Nested

Laplace Approximation (INLA) and Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE)

to perform the inference. Also I Natario and co-workers used INLA to Estimate a

Highly Dimensional Spatial Model for Forest Fires in Portugal. The paper was

published as a chapert of a book in Springer. Another perspective of the Bayesian

modelling of wildfires in Portugal was offered by G Silva. The paper was accepted for

publication as a chapter of a book from Springer.

A Papolia, jointly with A Turkman, R São João and C Ribeiro, analysed the incidence

of stomach cancer in Southern Portugal between 1998 and 2006 for females and

males jointly using a spatial multivariate age-period-cohort model. The paper was

published in Biometrical Journal.

M Antunes was dedicated mainly to the study and application of Bayesian

hierarchical models to count point referenced data, namely the estimation of the

abundance of Cullex pipiens in Portugal. She was also dedicated to the study of

disease mapping applications to spatial-temporal data, in particular the analysis of the

number of hospital admissions due to heart failure in Portugal.

I Natario with a PhD student worked on A Spatial Econometrics Analysis for Road

Accidents in Lisbon. The work was accepted for publication as a chapter of a book.

4. Models for fire frequency data: KF Turkman, A Turkman and P Pereira,

looking at existing practices in producing fire risk maps based on fire frequency data,

suggested improvements by incorporating the strong spatial and temporal dependence

that exists in the data using two different strategies. One consisted in modelling

interarrival times and another by modelling yearly fire occurrences. These two

distinct strategies accommodate different possibilities to introduce time dependent

covariates. The work was carried out with collaborators from ISA and resulted on a

paper published in 2014 in Journal of Statistical Thepry and Practice. A Turkman and

co-workers from ISA, proposed several discrete distributions to estimate fire

mortality, survival and hazard functions by vegetation type in a paper published in

2013 in JWF. This work motivated another study undertaken during 2013-2014,

related to Modelling Fire Frequency in a Cerrado Savanna Protected Area which was

published in 2014 in PLOS ONE.

5. Bayesian semi parametric and Nonparametric Bayesian Analysis: CD

Paulino, and N Spulveda proposed a Bayesian semiparametric approach to implement

inference for data obtained by using modern sequencing technologies, such as the

analysis of T-cell counts in immunological research and studies of gene expression

based on counts of RNA fragments, where the items being counted are sequences, of

proteins and base pairs respectively. The resulting sequence abundance distribution is

usually characterized by overdispersion. Besides modelling the overdispersion, the

approach takes also into account two related sources of bias. The paper was published

in JRSS C. CD Paulino with international partners also worked on Semi-parametric

Bayesian analysis of binary responses with a continuous covariate subject to non-

random missingness. The work is to appear in the periodical Statistical Modelling.


52

M Antunes, S Ramos and and ATurkman worked on a nonparametric Bayesian

formulation to the screening methodology. Their proposal is based on the product of a

dependent Dirichlet mixed model by a Dirichlet mixed model. The work was

presented during 2014 in two international conferences. An article with the results are

currently under submission.

M J Polidoro and A Turkman worked on a Bayesian nonparametric goodness-of-fit

test to evaluate the goodness-of-fit in the exponential case and we compare the power

of these tests with some classical test statistics. The paper was published in the

ICCSA proceedings by Springer.

6. Categorical data analysis and missing imputation: C D Paulino worked on

the analysis of categorical data with missing responses; he extended the multinomial

modelling scenario to a product-multinomial framework that allows the inclusion of

explanatory variables. He considered maximum likelihood (ML) and weighted least

squares (WLS) as well as a hybrid ML/WLS approach to fit linear, log-linear and

more general functional linear models under ignorable and nonignorable missing data

mechanisms. The work was published in the Brazilian Journal of Probability and

Statistics.

N Sepúlveda worked on the performance of multiple imputation based on chained

equations in tackling missing genotypes in a malaria association study in Tanzania.

With his co-workers, he constructed different imputation models and studied their

performance under different missing data conditions; using the best imputation model

for the data, they obtained unbiased estimates for the genetic effects, and association

signals of the HBA2 gene on malaria positivity. The work was published in Annals of

Human Genetics.

7. State space and dynamic models: I Natário, L Carvalho and I Figueiredo

worked on modelling the dynamics of the black scabbardfish in NE Atlantic through a

space state model, application of stochastic frontier analysis to fisheries, in particular

the black scabbardfish fishery and initiated a project for dealing with the ray fishery

in the Portuguese continental waters (evaluation of its exploration state, and the study

of technical measures for its management). The work on A State Space Model

Approach for Modelling the Population Dynamics of Black Scabbardfish in

Portuguese Mainland Waters was accepted for publication as a chapter of a book.

Also it is important to refer the involvement in the study of technical measures for the

management of the ray fishery (Raja undulata), in the Portuguese continental waters,

under a contract within the project UNDULATA-Nº31-03-01 FEP186,(PROMAR –

Programa Operacional Pesca 2007-2013. Eixo 3: Ações colectivas).

8 ROC analysis: V Inacio and co-workers proposed a method for evaluating a

functional covariate effect on the pAUC, a well-established measure of diagnostic

accuracy when only a portion of the ROC curve is of interest. This work, submitted to

Annals of Applied Statistics, is an extension of the one published in 2012 where a

flexible ROC regression was proposed for the case where the covariate affecting the

biomarker’s performance is functional. With co-workers she is writing a book on on

Bayesian flexible regression models for ROC curve estimation and disease diagnosis.

This book is to be published by Chapman & Hall, Biostatistics series, in 2015.

L Gonçalves and PZ Bermudez wrote a paper on an overview of ROC Curve

Estimation which was published in REVSTAT.

9. Statistics in the analysis of microarray data: L Sousa has been collaborating

with researchers from IMM (FMUL), BioFIG (FCUL) IHMT (UNL) in the

development of statistical methods for the analysis of Microarray and Next

Generation Sequencing data. The problems under investigation are on: (1) multiple


53

testing procedures for hierarchically dependent hypothesis and for conditional, in

high-throughput data; (2) the use of visualization and statistical techniques for GO

annotation of protein; (3) the introduction of meta-heuristic methods for model

selection in generalized additive neural networks. The work resulted in the

publication of an article in Plant Physiology and Biochemistry and another in PLoS

ONE. L Sousa and C Silva-Fortes explored the ideas behind the arrow plot to the

analysis of microarrays. With co-workers they use exploratory techniques to visualize

the effects of preprocessing methods on statistical analysis of cancer two-channel

micro array data sets, where the cancer types (classes) are known. A variety of results

from this work were published in the proceedings of a conference and as a chapter of

a book to appear in 2015.

M Antunes with collaborators from the CQBQ and IMM worked on a comparative

study of alternative mixture model methods to analyze bacterial CGH experiments

with multi-genome arrays. An Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm was applied

to fit a mixture model to the signal distribution. The work provides a guiding

benchmark comparison of alternative methods to analyze aCGH results that can

impact on the analysis of currently ongoing comparative genomic projects or in the

re-analysis of published studies. The paper was published in BMC Research Notes.

10 Statistical advances and contributions in Epidemiology, Immunology, and

Health: During the outbreak of the Legionnaires Disease, L Carvalho was called to

collaborate with INSA, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge, and DGS,

Direção Geral de Saúde, on a model for the Legionnaires’ disease outbreaks. Back-

calculation models developed by Egan et al. were applied using epidemiological data

available on 12 November. The models allowed determination of the period of aerosol

release (period of exposure) and estimation of the number of expected cases. The

results of this study and the findings were published a paper on Euro Surveillance

entitled A Large Community Outbreak of Legionnaires’ Disease in Vila Franca de

Xira, Portugal, October to November 2014.

L Gonçalves was involved in a study that aimed to assess community perceptions of

Madeira population in order to explore their involvement in the A. aegypti’s control

and reinforce health-educational planning. Due to the lack of accurate methodologies

for measuring perception, a new tool to assess the community’s perceptions was built.

The paper was published BMC Public Health. She also worked on a paper relating the

impact of dengue outbreak experience in a dengue infected community of the Madeira

island. The paper was accepted for publication. Using data from the data from the

National Health Interview Survey L Gonçalves investigated: the clustering of

behavioural risk factors in a Portuguese population; the dietary patterns of the

Portuguese population with and without self-reported diabetes. Also she participated

in a study to explore the association between the patterns of behaviour risk factors in a

Portuguese population aged 15 years and over with diabetes and their Self-rated

health (SRH) which is a health measure related to mortality, healthcare services

utilization and quality of life. All these studies were published in periodicals related to

health.


54

N Sepúlveda currently studies the statistics aspects of using antibody data to assess

malaria transmission intensity and its putative changes after a field intervention. He is

also collaborating in projects aiming to accurately estimate T-cell receptor diversity in

the body. During 2014 he worked on several statistical methods of the malaria

endemicity, interethnic differences in susceptibility to malaria, malaria resistance and

malaria association studies, resulting in a great variety of published papers.

The collaboration of AL Papoila with medical doctors has been very important and

fruitful resulting in several publications and communications in conferences. Her

work with medical doctors is mainly of consulting where she provides

epidemiological and statistical support to researchers. Due to the great diversity of

datasets that she has to analyse, several statistical techniques, simple and more

complex, must be used, such as: generalized linear mixed models and generalized

additive mixed models, interval-censored data, age-period-cohort models, hierarchical

bayesian spatio-temporal models, projection models, relative survival, quantile

regression models, generalized additive model for location, scale and shape –

GAMLSS and distributional regression implemented by BayesX, cluster and factor

analysis. 4.3.3 Publications

Books (International)

Turkman, K. F., Scotto, M. G. and de Zea Bermudez, P. (2014). Non-Linear Time

Series: Extreme Events and Integer Value Problems. Springer.

http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-07028-5

International Books (editor)

Pacheco,A., Oliveira, R., Santos, R. and Paulino, C. D., eds. (2014). New Advances in

Statistical Modelling and Applications. Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics -

Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies, Springer, 285 p.

http://www.springer.com/statistics/statistical+theory+and+methods/book/978-3-319-

05322-6

Chapter of books (International)

Natário, I., Oliveira, M.M., Marques, S. (2014). Using INLA to Estimate a Highly

Dimensional Spatial Model for Forest Fires in Portugal. In New Advances in

Statistical Modeling and Applications - Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics.

Edts: Pacheco A., Santos R., Oliveira R., Paulino C.D.: 239-247. Wiley.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05323-3_23.

Proceeedings (international)

Polidoro, M. J., Magalhães, F. J. and Turkman, M. A. A.(2014). Classical and

Bayesian Goodness-of-fit Tests for the Exponential Model: A Comparative Study.

Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA. Proceedings, Part III. Editors:

B. Murgante et al. (Eds.): LNCS 8581, pp. 483–497. Springer International Publishing

Switzerland http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007%2F978-3-319-09150-1_35




http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-05323-3_23



55

Silva-Fortes, C., Freitas, A., Roque, S. and Sousa, L. (2014). Arrow Plot and CA

Maps on Microarray Preprocessing . 2014 14th International Conference on

Computational Science and Its Applications, pp:229-232. DOI

10.1109/ICCSA.2014.52.

http://140.98.202.196/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?tp=&arnumber=6976694&searchWithin

%3Dp_Authors%3A.QT.Sousa%2C+Lisete.QT

Simões Paula, Sílvia Shrubsall, Isabel Natário (2014) A Spatial Econometrics

Analysis for Road Accidents in Lisbon. In Computational Science and Its

Applications – ICCSA 2014. Edts: Murgante B., Misra S., Rocha A.M.A.C., Torre

C., Rocha J.G., Falcão M., Taniar D., Apduhan B.O., Gervasi O. Lecture Notes in

Computer Science Volume 8581: 269-283. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-

09150-1_20.

Internacional (periodicals)

Agudelo-Romero, P., Ali, K., Choi, Y.H., Sousa, L., Verpoorte, R., Tiburcio, A.F. and

Fortes, A.M. (2014). Perturbation of polyamine catabolism affects grape ripening of

V. vinifera cv. trincadeira. Plant Physiology and Biochemistry 74, 141-155.


Alonso, A. M., de Zea Bermudez, P. and Scotto, M. G. (2014). Comparing

Generalized Pareto models fitted to extreme observations: an application to the largest

temperatures in Spain. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,

28:5, 1221-1233. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00477-013-0809-

8#page-1

Cai, J. H.J. Einmahl, L. de Haan and C. Zhou (2015). Estimation of the marginal

expected shortfall: the mean when a related variable is extreme. Journal of the Royal

Statistical Society, Series B, 77, Part 2, pp. 417–442.

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rssb.12069/pdf

Cardoso LS, Suissas CE, Ramirez M, Antunes M, Rodrigues Pinto F. (2014)

Comparison of alternative mixture model methods to analyze bacterial CGH

experiments with multi-genome arrays. BMC Research Notes 2014, 7:148.

http://www.biomedcentral.com/1756-0500/7/148

Carreiro-Martins, P., Viegas, J., Papoila, A.L., Aelenei, D., Caires, I., Araújo-Martins,

J., Gaspar-Marques, J., Cano, M.M., Mendes, A.S., Virella, D., Rosado-Pinto, J.,

Leiria-Pinto, P., Annesi-Maesano, I., Neuparth, N. (2014). CO(2) concentration in day

care centres is related to wheezing in attending children. European Journal of

Pediatrics, 173 (8):1041-9. DOI: 10.1007/s00431-014-2288-4.

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24590656

Costa, E., Gonçalves, L., Oliveira, L., Dias, C.M. (2014) Positive self rated health in a

Portuguese population with diabetes: association with socio-demographic

characteristics and behaviour factors patterns. IJHSR, 4(12): 257-266.

http://repositorio.insa.pt/bitstream/10400.18/2569/1/22%20-

%20LMO_Positive%20Self%20Rated%20Health%20in%20a%20Portuguese%20Pop

ulation%20with%20Diabetes.pdf

http://140.98.202.196/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?tp=&arnumber=6976694&searchWithin%3Dp_Authors%3A.QT.Sousa%2C+Lisete.QT


http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09150-1_20

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09150-1_20


http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00477-013-0809-8#page-1





http://repositorio.insa.pt/bitstream/10400.18/2569/1/22%20-%20LMO_Positive%20Self%20Rated%20Health%20in%20a%20Portuguese%20Population%20with%20Diabetes.pdf




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Costa, E., Oliveira, L., Gonçalves, L., Dias, C.M. (2014) Dietary patterns of the

Portuguese population with and without self-reported diabetes: data from the fourth

National Health Interview Survey. IJHSR, 4(12): 267-277.

http://repositorio.insa.pt/bitstream/10400.18/2565/3/Dietary%20Patterns%20of%20Po

rtuguese%20Population_atualizado.pdf

Cunha, M. G., Silva, E.S., Sepúlveda, N., Costa, S. P. T., Saboia, T. C., Guerreiro J.F,

Póvoa, M. M., Corran, P. H., Riley, E., Drakeley, C. J. (2014). Serologically Defined

Variations in Malaria Endemicity in Pará State, Brazil. PLoS One, 9: e113357.

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0113357 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25419900

DaCamara, C.C., Teresa J. Calado, Sofia L. Ermida, Isabel F. Trigo, Malik Amraoui

and KF Turkman. (2014) Calibration of the Fire Weather Index over Mediterranean

Europe based on fire activity retrieved from MSG satellite imagery. International

Journal of Wildland Fire. http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13157

de Carvalho Mamede, Turkman Antonia and Swash Michael (2014) Sensitivity of

MUP parameters in detecting change in early ALS. Clinical Neurophysiology, 125,

166-169: DOI:10.1016/j.clinph.2013.06.014


de Haan, L. A. Klein Tank and C. Neves (2014). On tail trend detection: modeling

relative risk. Extremes http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10687-014-0207-

8#page-1

Diogo, L.N., Pinto, P., Bárbara, C., Monteiro, E.C. and Papoila, A. L. (2015). Neck

circumference and body mass index as independent predictors of hypertension

misclassification in patients suspected of having obstructive sleep apnea. Blood

Pressure Monitoring, 20 (1) pp:8-15. DOI: 10.1097/MBP.0000000000000080


Eiras, M., França, M., Pascoal, A. and Silva-Fortes,C. (2014) The Hospital Survey on

Patient Safety Culture in Portuguese hospitals: instrument validity and reliability.

International Journal of Health Care Quality Assurance, 27(2):111-122.


Ferreira A. and L. de Haan (2014). The Generalized Pareto Process; with application.

Bernoulli, 20(4), 1717-1737 https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bj/1411134442

Ferreira A. and L. de Haan (2015). On the block maxima method in extreme value

theory. Annals of Statistics, 2015, Vol. 43, No. 1, 276–298

http://arxiv.org/pdf/1310.3222.pdf

Gil, S., Leal, R.O., McGahie, D., Sepúlveda, N., Duarte, A., Niza, M.M., Tavares, L.

Oral (2014). Recombinant Feline Interferon-Omega as an alternative immune

modulation therapy in FIV positive cats: Clinical and laboratory evaluation. Res. Vet.

Sci. 96:79-85. doi:10.1016/j.rvsc.2013.11.007


http://repositorio.insa.pt/bitstream/10400.18/2565/3/Dietary%20Patterns%20of%20Portuguese%20Population_atualizado.pdf



http://dx.doi.org/10.1071/WF13157






https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bj/1411134442




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Gonçalves, L., Subtil, A., Oliveira, M.R., de Zea Bermudez, P. (2014) ROC curve

estimation: an overview. REVSTAT, 12(1), 1-20. (IF=0.679)


Gonçalves, L., Subtil, Ana, Oliveira, R. and De Zea Bermudez, P. (2014). ROC

Curve Estimation: an overview. REVSTAT – Statistical Journal, 12:1, 1-20.


Guindani, M., Sepúlveda, N., Paulino, C. D. and Müller, P. (2014). A Bayesian semi-

parametric approach for the differential analysis of sequence counts data. J. Royal

Statistical Society C (Appl. Statist.) 63, 3, 385 - 404. doi: 10.1111/rssc.12041

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/rssc.12041/abstract

Leal, R.O., Gil, S., Sepúlveda, N., McGahie, D., Duarte, A., Niza, M., Tavares, L.

(2014). Monitoring acute phase proteins in retrovirus infected cats undergoing feline

interferon-ω therapy. J. Small Anim. Pract. 55:39-45. doi: 10.1111/jsap.12160


Maiga, B., Dolo, A,, Touré, O,, Dara, V., Tapily, A., Campino, S., Sepúlveda. N.,

Corran, P., Rockett, K., Clark, T.G., Troye-Blomberg, M., Doumbo, O.K. (2014). Fc

gamma Receptor IIa-H131R Polymorphism and Malaria Susceptibility in Sympatric

Ethnic Groups, Fulani and Dogon of Mali. Scand. J. Immunol. 79:43-50. doi:

10.1111/sji.12122 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24117665

Maiga, B., Dolo, A., Campino, S., Sepúlveda, N., Corran, P., Rockett ,K.A., Troye-

Blomberg, M., Doumbo, O.K., Clark, T.G. (2014). Glucose-6-phosphate

dehydrogenase polymorphisms and susceptibility to mild malaria in Dogon and

Fulani, Mali. Malar J. 13:270. doi:10.1186/1475-2875-13-270

http://www.malariajournal.com/content/13/1/270

Marques, J.G., Carreiro-Martins, P., Papoila, A.L., Caires, I., Pedro, C., Araújo-

Martins, J., Virella, D., Rosado-Pinto, J., Leiria-Pinto, P., Neuparth, N. (2013). Food

allergy and anaphylaxis in infants and preschool-age children. Clinical Pediatrics, 53

(7):652-657. DOI:10.1177/0009922814527502


Mendes, A., Aelenei, D., Papoila, A.L., Carreiro-Martins, P., Aguiar, L., Pereira, C.,

Neves, P., Azevedo, S., Cano, M., Proença, C., Viegas, J., Silva, S., Mendes, D.,

Neuparth, N., Teixeira, J.P. (2014). Environmental and Ventilation Assessment in

Child Day Care Centers in Porto: The Envirh Project. Journal of Toxicology and

Environmental Health, Part A, 77 (14-16), 931-943.

DOI:10.1080/15287394.2014.911134.


Nazareth, T., Teodósio, R., Porto, G., Gonçalves, L., Seixas, G., Silva, A.C., Sousa,

C.A. (2014) Strengthening the perception-assessment tools for dengue prevention: a

cross-sectional survey in a temperate region (Madeira, Portugal). BMC Public Health,

14:39. doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-39. (IF=2.32)












58

Paixão, P., Piedade, C., Papoila, A.L., Caires, I., Pedro, C., Santos, M., Silvestre,

M.J., Brum, L., Nunes, B., Guiomar, R., Curran, M.D., Carvalho, A., Marques, T.,

Neuparth, N. (2014). Improving influenza surveillance in Portuguese preschool

children by parents´ report. European Journal of Pediatrics, 173 (8), 1059-1065.

DOI:10.1007/s00431-014-2285-7 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24599798

Papoila, A.L., Riebler, A., Amaral-Turkman, A., São-João, R., Ribeiro, C., Geraldes,

C., Miranda, A. (2014). Stomach cancer incidence in Southern Portugal 1998–2006:

A spatio-temporal analysis. Biometrical Journal, 56 (3), 403-415. DOI:

10.1002/bimj.201200264. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24596314

Paulino, J., Vigia, E., Marcelino, P., Abade, O., Sobral, J., Ligeiro, D., Carvalho, A.,

Alves, M., Papoila, A.L., Trindade, H., Barroso, E. (2014). Genetic Expression

Profile of Human Liver Grafts in Ischemia-Reperfusion Injury: Comparison of

Familial Amyloidotic Polyneuropathy and Deceased-Donor Liver Grafts.

Transplantation Proceedings, 46 (6), 1678 – 1684.

DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.transproceed.2014.05.013. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25131011

Pereira Júnior Alfredo C., Sofia L. J. Oliveira, José M. C. Pereira, Maria Antónia

Amaral Turkman. (2014). Modelling Fire Frequency in a Cerrado Savanna Protected

Area. PLOS ONE, Published: July 23, 2014.

http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0102380

Pereira-da-Silva, L., Cabo, C., Moreira, A.C., Papoila, A.L., Virella, D., Neves, R.,

Bridges, K.M. and Cordeiro-Ferreira, G. (2015). The effect of long-chain

polyunsaturated fatty acids intake during pregnancy on adiposity of healthy full-term

offspring at birth. Journal of Perinatology. Mar;35(3):177-80. doi:10.1038/jp.2014.18.


Pinto, A.E., Silva, G.L., Cavaco, B. Leite, V., Menezes, F.D., Teixeira, M. and

Henrique, R. (2014). Familial versus sporadic papillary thyroid carcinoma: a

matched-case comparative study showing similar clinical/prognostic behaviour.

European Journal of Endocrinology, 170, 321-327. http://eje-

online.org/content/170/2/321.long

Pinto, D., Heleno, B., Rodrigues, D.S., Papoila, A.L., Santos, I., Caetano, P.A. (2014).

An open cluster-randomized, 18-month trial to compare the effectiveness of

educational outreach visits with usual guideline dissemination to improve family

physician prescribing. Implementation Science, 9:10. DOI:10.1186/1748-5908-9-10

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4029170/

Poleto, F., Singer, J. and Paulino, C. D. (2014). A product-multinomial framework for

categorical data analysis with missing responses. Brazilian Journal of Probability and

Statistics 28, 1, 109-139. URL: http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bjps/1391611341

http://pop.poleto.com/PoletoSingerPaulino2014_ProdMultFramCatDatAnalMissResp

_BJPS.pdf

Rockett, K. A.,Clarke, G. M., Fitzpatrick, K.,Hubbart, C., Jeffreys, A. E., Rowlands,

K., Craik R., Jallow M., Conway D. J.,Bojang, K. A., Pinder, M.,Usen, S., Sisay-Joof,

F., Sirugo, G., Toure, O., Thera, M. A., Konate S., Sissoko, S., Niangaly, A.,






http://eje-online.org/content/170/2/321.long

http://eje-online.org/content/170/2/321.long


http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.bjps/1391611341

http://pop.poleto.com/PoletoSingerPaulino2014_ProdMultFramCatDatAnalMissResp_BJPS.pdf

http://pop.poleto.com/PoletoSingerPaulino2014_ProdMultFramCatDatAnalMissResp_BJPS.pdf


59

Poudiougou, B., Mangano, V. D., Bougouma, E., Sirima, S. B., Modiano,

D.,Amenga-Etego, L. N., Ghansah, A., Koram, K. A., Wilson, M., Enimil, A., Evans,

J., Amodu, O., Olaniyan, S., Apinjoh, T., Mugri, R., Ndi, A., Ndila, C. M., Uyoga, S.,

Macharia, A., Peshu, N., Williams,T. N., Manjurano, A., Riley, E., Drakeley, C.,

Reyburn, H., Nyirongo, V., Kachala, D., Molyneux, M., Dunstan, S. J., Phu, N. H.,

Quyen, N. T., Thai, C. Q., Hien, T. T., Manning, L., Laman, M., Siba, P.,

Karunajeewa, H., Allen, S., Allen, A., Davis, T. M., Michon, P., Mueller, I., Green,

A., Molloy, S., Johnson, K. J., Kerasidou, A., Cornelius, V., Hart, L., Vanderwal, A.,

SanJoaquin, M.,Band, G., Le, S. Q., Pirinen, M., Sepúlveda, N., Spencer, C. A.,

Clark, T. G., Agbenyega, T., Achidi, E., Doumbo, O., Farrar, J., Marsh, K., Taylor,

T., Kwiatkowski, D. P. (2014). Reappraisal of known malaria resistance loci in a large

multi-centre study. Nature Genetics 46, 1197–1204. DOI: 10.1038/ng.3107

http://www.nature.com/ng/journal/v46/n11/full/ng.3107.html

Rodrigues, A., Silva, G.L., Casquilho, M., Freire, J., Carrasquinho, I. and Tomé, M.

(2014). Linear mixed modelling of cone production for stone pine in Portugal. Silva

Lusitana, 22(1), 1-27. URL:

http://www.scielo.gpeari.mctes.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_issuetoc&pid=0870-

635220140001&lng=pt&nrm=iso

Sebastiana, M., Vieira, B., Lino-Neto, T., Monteiro, F., Figueiredo, A., Sousa, L.,

Pais, M.S., Tavares, R., Paulo, O.S. (2014). Oak root response to ectomycorrhizal

symbiosis establishment: RNA-Seq derived transcript identification and expression

profiling. PLoS ONE 9(5): e98376.

http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0098376

Sepúlveda, N., Manjurano, A., Drakeley, C.J., Clark, T.G. (2014). On the

performance of multiple imputation based on chained equations in tackling missing

genotypes in a malaria association study in Tanzania. Ann. Hum. Genet. 78:277-89.

doi: 10.1111/ahg.1206 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24942080

T Shivaji , C Sousa Pinto, A San-Bento, L A Oliveira Serra, J Valente, J Machado, T

Marques, L Carvalho, P J Nogueira, B Nunes, P Vasconcelos. A Large Community

Outbreak of Legionnaires’ Disease in Vila Franca de Xira, Portugal, October to

November 2014. Euro Surveill. 2014;19(50):pii=20991.

http://www.eurosurveillance.org/ViewArticle.aspx?ArticleId=20991

Timóteo, A.T., Papoila, A.L., Rio, P., Miranda, F., Ferreira, M.L., Ferreira, R.C.

(2014). Prognostic impact of admission blood glucose for all-cause mortality in

patients with acute coronary syndromes: added value on top of GRACE risk score.

European Heart Journal: Acute Cardiovascular Care, 3 (3), 257-263.

DOI:10.1177/2048872614528858 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24687188

Timóteo, A.T., Papoila, A.L., Lousinha, A., Alves, M., Miranda, F., Ferreira, M.L.,

Ferreira, R. (2015). Predictive impact on medium term mortality of hematological

parameters in Acute Coronary Syndromes: added value on top of GRACE risk score.

European heart journal. Acute cardiovascular care. Eur Heart J Acute Cardiovasc

Care. 2015 Apr;4(2):172-9 DOI: 10.1177/2048872614547690



http://www.scielo.gpeari.mctes.pt/scielo.php?script=sci_issuetoc&pid=0870-635220140001&lng=pt&nrm=iso


http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0098376






60

Turkman, K. F. (2014) On the upcrossings of trigonometric polynomials with random

coefficients. Revstat. 12, 135-156. https://www.ine.pt/revstat/pdf/rs140203.pdf

Turkman, K.F., Amaral Turkman, M.A., Pereira,P. Sa, A., and Pereira, J.(2014)

Generating annual fire risk maps using Bayesian hierarchical models. Journal of

Statistical Theory and Practice. 8:3, 509-533.

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15598608.2013.820158#.VKveICusV8

E

Accepted International

Chapters of International Books

Natário, I., Figueiredo, I., Carvalho, M.L. (2014?). A State Space Model Approach

for Modelling the Population Dynamics of Black Scabbardfish in Portuguese

Mainland Waters. To appear in: Dynamics, Games and Science - International

Conference and Advanced School Planet Earth, DGS III, Ed: por Jean-Pierre

Bourguignon, Rolf Jelstch, Alberto Adrego Pinto e Marcelo Viana, Springer-Verlag.

Silva, G.L., Soares, P., Marques, S., Dias, M.I., Oliveira, M.M. and Borges, J.G.

(2014). A Bayesian modelling of wildfires in Portugal. In Bourguignon, J.P., Jelstch,

R., Pinto, A.A. and Viana, M. (Editors), Dynamics, Games and Science - International

Conference and Advanced School Planet Earth DGS II, CIM Series in Mathematical

Sciences, Springer-Verlag, pg. 669-680.

Silva-Fortes, C., Freitas, A., Roque, S., Sousa, L.. "Arrow Plot and CA Maps for

Visualizing the Effects of Background Correction and Normalization Methods on

Microarray Data". In "Pattern Recognition in Computational Molecular Biology:

technologies and approaches", M. Elloumi, C. S. Iliopoulos, J. T. L. Wang, A. Y.

Zomaya, Editors, John Wiley & Sons.

Publications (periodicals)

Alho, A.M, Landum, M., Ferreira, C., Meireles, J., Gonçalves, L., Madeira, L.C.,

Belo, S. (2014) Prevalence and seasonal variations of canine dirofilariosis in Portugal.

Veterniary Parasitology, doi:10.1016/j.vetpar.2014.08.014 (IF=2.545)

Chor D, Andreozzi V, Fonseca MJ, Cardoso LO, James SA, Lopes CS, Faerstein E.

(2015) Social inequalities in BMI trajectories: 8-year follow-up of the Pró-Saúde

study in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. . Public Health Nutr. 2015 Apr 21:1-9. [Epub ahead of

print]

Costa, E., Dias, C.M., Oliveira, L., Gonçalves, L. (2014) Clustering of behavioural

risk factors in a Portuguese population: data from the National Health Interview

Survey. Journal of Behavioral Health doi: 10.5455/jbh.20141122100623.

de Carvalho Mamede, Turkman Antonia, Pinto Susana and Swash Michael (2015).

Modulation of fasciculation frequency in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Journal of

Neurology, Neurosurgery and Psychiatry. Published online January 2015.

doi:10.1136/jnnp-2014-309686

https://www.ine.pt/revstat/pdf/rs140203.pdf

http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/15598608.2013.820158#.VKveICusV8E



61

Diogo, L.N., Pinto, P., Bárbara, C., Papoila, A.L. and Monteiro, E.C. (2014). The

association between antihypertensive medication and blood pressure control in

patients with obstructive sleep apnea. Accepted in Advances in Experimental

Medicine and Biology.

Drees H. and L. de Haan (2014). Estimating failure probabilities. Bernoulli, to appear

Durão C, Andreozzi V, Oliveira A, Moreira P, Guerra A, Barrosa H, Lopes C.

Maternal child-feeding practices and dietary inadequacy of 4-year-old children.

Appetite [accepted 2015]

Einmahl, J. H. J., de Haan, L. and Zhou, C. (2014), Statistics of heteroscedastic

extremes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series B (Statistical Methodology).

doi: 10.1111/rssb.12099

Fortes, A.M., Carbonell-Bejerano, P., kopka, J., Martínez-Zapater, J.M., Rego, C.,

Nascimento, T., Sousa, L., Erban, A. (2014). Transcriptome and metabolome

reprogramming in Vitis vinifera cv. trincadeira berries upon infection with Botrytis

cinerea. Accepted for publication in Journal of Experimental Botany, in November

26, 2014.

Nazareth, T., Sousa, C.A. , Porto, G., Gonçalves, L., Seixas, G., Antunes, L., Silva,

A.C., Teodósio, R., (2014) . Impact of dengue outbreak experience in a dengue

infected community of a temperate region: Madeira island, Portugal. PLOS

Neglected Trop Dis (accepted )). (IF=4.57)

Poleto, F., Paulino, C. D., Singer, J. and Molenberghs, G. (2014). Semi-parametric

Bayesian analysis of binary responses with a continuous covariate subject to non-

random missingness. Statistical Modeling (to appear).

DOI:10.1177/1471082X14549290.

National Publications

Books

Tavares, D., Antunes, C., Coelho, A., Flores, B., Reis, B., Silva-Fortes, C., Medeiros,

N., Borrego, R. (2014). Saúde e Estilos de Vida no Concelho de Loures (2009).

Coleção Estudos e Reflexões. Editora mediaXXI. ISBN: 978-989-98774-0-5.

http://repositorio.ipl.pt/bitstream/10400.21/3759/1/Sa%C3%BAde%20e%20estilos%2

0de%20vida%20no%20concelho%20de%20Loures.pdf

Editors

Pereira, I., Freitas, A., Scotto, M., Silva, M.E. e Paulino, C.D., eds. (2014).

Estatística: A Ciência da Incerteza. Edições SPE, Lisboa.

Proceedings

http://repositorio.ipl.pt/bitstream/10400.21/3759/1/Sa%C3%BAde%20e%20estilos%20de%20vida%20no%20concelho%20de%20Loures.pdf



62

Oliveira MM, Natário I, Marques S, Garcia-Gonzalo J, Botequim B, Borges JG,

Tomé M, Pereira JM, Tomé J, Demétrio CGB (2014). Aplicações Estatísticas em

Análise de Catástrofes Naturais. In Matemática do Planeta Terra – 2ª edição, Edts

Fernando Pestana da Costa, João Teixeira Pinto, Jorge Buescu. IST Press. Lisboa. url:

http://istpress.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/node/380

Poleto, F.Z., Paulino, C.D., Singer, J. and Molenberghs, G. (2014). “Análise

bayesiana semiparamétrica de resposta binária com covariável contínua sujeita a

omissão não aleatória”. Em Estatística: A Ciência da Incerteza (Proceedings of XXI

Portuguese Statistical Society Conference), Pereira, I. et al. (eds.), 105-118, SPE.

Sepúlveda, N., Manjurano, A., Drakeley, C., Clark, T.G. (2014). On the protection of

alpha-thalassaemia from malaria infection in northeast Tanzania. In Estatística: A

Ciência da Incerteza (Proceedings of XXI Portuguese Statistical Society Conference),

Pereira, I. et al. (eds.), 223-234, SPE.

Periodicals (National)

Araújo-Martins, J., Carreiro-Martins, P., Viegas, J., Aelenei, D., Cano, M.M.,

Teixeira, J.P., Paixão, P., Papoila, A.L., Leiria-Pinto, P., Pedro, C. (2014).

Environment and Health in Children Day Care Centres (ENVIRH) – Study rationale

and protocol. Revista Portuguesa de Pneumologia, 20(6):311-23.


Martins, P., Belo, J., Marques, J., Papoila, A.L., Caires, I., Araújo-Martins, J., Pedro,

C., Rosado-Pinto, J., Virella, D., Leiria-Pinto, P., Neuparth, N. (2014). Alergia a

Medicamentos Reportada em Crianças que Frequentam Infantários. Acta Médica

Portuguesa, 27 (4), 444-449. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25203952

Nóbrega, S., Andrade, M., Heleno, B., Alves, M., Papoila, A., Sassetti, L. and

Virella, D. (2014). Compliance with ESPGHAN position on complementary feeding

in a multicultural European community. Does ethnicity matter?

Nóbrega, S., Andrade, M., Heleno, B., Alves, M., Papoila, A., Sassetti, L. and

Virella, D. (2014). Compliance with ESPGHAN position on complementary feeding

in a multicultural European community. Does ethnicity matter? 21 (6), pp: 231–240.

doi:10.1016/j.jpge.2014.08.004 http://www.elsevier.pt/en/revistas/ge-jornal-

portugues-gastrenterologia-347/artigo/compliance-with-espghan-position-on-

complementary-feeding-in-90370874

Rial, T., Sousa, L., García, E., Pinsach, P. (2014). Efectos agudos de una sesión de

técnicas hipopresivas en diferentes parámetros corporales. Cuestiones de Fisioterapia

– Revista Universitária de Informacíon e Investigacíon en Fisioterapia, 43(1): 13-21.

(ISSN 1135-8599) http://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=4573217

http://istpress.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/node/380



http://www.elsevier.pt/en/revistas/ge-jornal-portugues-gastrenterologia-347/artigo/compliance-with-espghan-position-on-complementary-feeding-in-90370874



http://dialnet.unirioja.es/servlet/articulo?codigo=4573217


63

Invited communications in conferences (International)

Antunes Marília, P. de Zea Bermudez , Maria da Conceição Proença, Maria Teresa

Rebelo, Maria João Alves, Hugo Osório and REVIVE team. (2014) Modelling the

abundance of Culex pipiens in Portugal in a bayesian perspective. International

Conference on Dynamics, Games and Science III. 17-21 February 2014. Porto,

Portugal

De Haan, L. Invited speaker at ISNPS conference, Cádiz on June 12

De Haan, L. Invited speaker Journées de statistique at the university of Rennes on

June 4

De Haan, L. Invited speaker workshop on extreme values, university of Besançon on

November 3

de Zea Bermudez, P., Turkman, K. F. and Amaral Turkman, M. A. "Parameter

Estimation of Bilinear Processes Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), 3rd

International Conference on Dynamics, Games and Science, Porto, 17-21 February

2014.

Natário I. The importance of the logit model in medical problems. 5th Iberian

Mathematical Meeting. Book of Abstracts pp 52-55. University of Aveiro, 4 October

2014. http://cms.ua.pt/imm5/

Ramos, S., Amaral Turkman, A. & Antunes, M. (2014, 17 de Fevereiro). Flexible

modeling of the screening problem. Comunicação apresentada no International

Conference Dynamics, Games and Science III, Universidade do Porto (comunicação

oral por convite). (ICDGS_III_17_02_2014_SANDRA_RAMOS.pdf)

Sepúlveda N. Invited talk, ‘Challenges in Malaria Research: Core Science and

Innovation’, University of Oxford, UK, 23rd September 2014 – “On the association of

African Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase alleles with protection from severe and

asymptomatic malaria in northeast Tanzania”.

Sepúlveda N. Invited talk, ‘SeroMod: Serology for Modelling Infectious Diseases’

(workshop), London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK, 12th November

2014 - “The use of serological data to uantify malaria transmission: Overview of

recent methods and applications” (with Chris Drakeley).

TURKMAN, K. F. “On Calibrating extremes values of simulated wind speeds based

on wind speed data observed at different spatial resolutions” (joint work with M. A.

AMARAL TURKMAN, P. PEREIRA, P. DE ZEA BERMUDEZ, P. MIRANDA and

P. VITERBO) at the Royal Statistical Society 2014 International Conference,

Sheffield (UK), 01-04 September.

Invited communications in conferences (National)

de Zea Bermudez, P., Turkman, K. F. and Amaral Turkman, M. A."Parameter

“Parameter Estimation of Bilinear Processes using Approximate bayesian

computation (ABC)” Encontro Nacional da SPM 2014, Session - Probability and

Statistics, Lisbon, 14 – 16 July 2014.


64

Gonçalves, L., A Bioestatística numa envolvência de terreno, XII Encontro de

Engenharia Biomédica 2014, Instituto Superior Técnico, 1 Outubro, Lisboa (Portugal)

– Comunicação por convite

Natário I, Figueiredo I, Lucília ML. Usando a Estatística para Estabelecer a Dinâmica

Populacional do Peixe Espada Preto. Mesa Redonda "Estatística como ferramenta nas

Ciências Ambientais e Ecologia". I Encontro Luso-Galaico de Estatística em

Ambiente e Ecologia, EES2014. Vila Real. 8 November 2014.

http://eio.usc.es/pub/ees2014/.

Polidoro, M. J. (2014) Apresentação de comunicação na sessão temática de

Probabilidades e Estatística com o título: “Abordagem bayesiana não param trica

para o estudo da adequação de modelos” Encontro Nacional da Sociedade Portuguesa

de Matemática 2014 (ENSPM14), Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da

Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Campus da Caparica, 14 a 16 de julho de 2014.

Ramos, S., Amaral Turkman, A. & Antunes, M. (2014, 15 de Julho). Abordagem

bayesiana não paramétrica do problema de triagem. Comunicação apresentada no

Encontro Nacional da Sociedade Portuguesa de Matemática 2014, UNL - Campus da

Caparica (comunicação oral por convite).

(ENSPM_15_07_2014_SANDRA_RAMOS.pdf)

Sepúlveda N. Invited talk, ‘Encontro Nacional da Sociedade Portuguesa de

Matematica 2014’, New University of Lisbon, 15th July 2014 - ‘A Bayesian semi-

parametric approach for the analysis of T-cell receptor diversity’.

Turkman, K.F. Extremes winds: how to use observed wind speeds to calibrate

simulated wind speeds. Keynote speaker at the Ist Portuguese-Galician Meeting on

Ecological and Environmental Statistics, 6-8 November 2014, Vila Real.

Invited seminars (International)

De Haan, L. Seminar talk at Delft university on October 23

De Haan, L. Seminar talk, Bocconi universiteit, Milan on April 10

Martins, R (2014) Seminário “Análise conjunta Bayesiana de dados longitudinais e de

sobrevivência”, Departamento de M todos Estatísticos do Instituto de Matemática da

Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro

http://www.dme.ufrj.br/palestrasanteriores.htm

Paulino, C.D Invited seminar: A Bayesian semi-parametric approach for the analysis

of T-cell receptor diversity, Dep. Statistics, Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo

Horizonte, Brazil, May 16th2014.

Paulino, C.D Invited seminar: A Bayesian semi-parametric approach for the analysis

of T-cell receptor diversity, Dep. Exact Sciences, Federal University of Lavras,

Brazil, June 26th 2014.

Paulino, C.D. Invited seminar: A Bayesian semi-parametric approach for the analysis

of T-cell receptor diversity, Dep. Statistics, University of São Paulo, May 13th 2014.

http://www.dme.ufrj.br/palestrasanteriores.htm


65

Sepúlveda N. Invited seminar, Task Force for Global Health, Centers for Disease

Control and Prevention, Atlanta, USA, 3rd September 2014 - ‘On the use of reverse

catalytic models for malaria seroprevalence data’.

Sepúlveda N. Invited talk, ‘Bayes Lectures’, University of Edinburgh, 27th May 2014

- ‘A Bayesian semi-parametric approach for the analysis of T-cell receptor diversity’.

Silva, G. Invited talk, Dep. Statistics, University of São Paulo, March 7th 2014 –

“Modelação de Taxas de Incidência e Mortalidade de Doenças por Grupos Etários e

Regiões de Saúde”.

Invited seminars (National)

Carvalho, L. M. Lucília Carvalho, Paulo Nogueira, Baltazar Nunes. Modelação

Estocástica do Surto de Doença dos Legionários de Outubro/Novembro de 2014 em

Vila Franca de Xira. Seminário do Centro de Estatística e Aplicações da

Universidade de Lisboa (CEAUL), 12 de Dezembro de 2014

De Haan, L. Speaker at CEAUL seminar, May 28.

Natário I. A Estatística na Sociedade - Vantagens e Problemas. Matemática na FCT.

11 November 2014. http://www.dm.fct.unl.pt/node/518.

Natário I. Como não ser enganado pelas estatísticas. Clube Math. 22 March 2014.

http://eventos.fct.unl.pt/clubemath/files/panfleto_cmath_1314.pdf

Papoila, A.L. Statistical methods in cancer research. Apresentação convidada no

âmbito dos Seminários de Probabilidades e Estatística realizados no Instituto Superior

Técnico. 10/12/2014

http://math.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/seminars/pe/index.php.pt?action=past

Ramos, S., Amaral Turkman, A. & Antunes, M. (2014, 26 de Junho). Flexible

modeling of the screening problem. Seminário Series in statistics, modeling and

Computational applications do Centro de Matemática da Universidade do Porto

(CMUP) (seminário realizado por convite).

(SEMINARIO_FCUP_26_07_2014_SANDRA_RAMOS.pdf)

Silva-Fortes, C. Selecting differentially expressed genes in samples subgroups on

microarray data. Programa Doutoral em Biologia/Bioquímica – Sistemas Biológicos,

Genómica Funcional e Integrativa (BioSys)- Faculdade de Ciências da Universidade

de Lisboa

Sousa, L. (2014) Statistical Analysis of RIP-Chip Data: Identification of mRNAs

Enriched by Immunoprecipitation". CBAA Seminars, Instituto Superior de

Agronomia, may 28, 2014.

Communications International

Agudelo-Romero, P., Erban, Rego, C., A., Nascimento, T., Carbonell-Bejerano, P.,

Sousa, L., J., Martínez-Zapater, kopka, J.M., Fortes, A.M.. “Transcript and metabolite

http://eventos.fct.unl.pt/clubemath/files/panfleto_cmath_1314.pdf

http://math.tecnico.ulisboa.pt/seminars/pe/index.php.pt?action=past


66

analysis of Vitis vinefera cv. trincadeira berries infected with Botrytis cinerea reveals

suppression of developmentally activated defences”. Annual Conference COST

FA1106 Quality Fruit, Chania-Greece, 21-24 September, 2014. Program and

Abstracts QualityFruits 2014, p. 18.

Antunes Liliana, Marília Antunes, Baltazar Nunes. Nowcasting daily mortality on

real-time for public health surveillance. XXVII International Biometric Conference,

6-11 July 2014. Florence, Italy.

Antunes Marília, P. de Zea Bermudez , Maria da Conceição Proença, Maria Teresa

Rebelo, Maria João Alves, Hugo Osório and REVIVE team. Modelling the

abundance of Culex pipiens in Portugal - a bayesian approach. Royal Statistical

Society 2014 International Conference. September 1-4 2014, Sheffield, UK.

Antunes, Marília, P. de Zea Bermudez , Maria da Conceição Proença, Maria Teresa

Rebelo, Maria João Alves, Hugo Osório and REVIVE team. Modelling the

abundance of Culex pipiens in Portugal in a bayesian perspective. Bayesian

Biostatistics 2014- Satellite conference of the International Biometric Conference,

July 2-5, University of Zurich, Switzerland

Barata, P., Trindade, A., Cardoso, A., Alves, M., Papoila, A.L., Virella, D., Barbosa,

A. and Lawlor, P.G. (2014). Symptom Clusters in Advanced Cancer Patients in

Greater Lisbon: interim analysis. Supportive Care in Cancer, 22, (Suppl 1) pp:S222-

S223, (#MASCC-0119).International Symposium on Supportive Care in Cancer

(MASCC-ISOO 2014), 26 - 28 Jun, Miami, USA. (poster).

Belo, J., Carreiro-Martins, P., Papoila, A.L., Geraldes, C., Paiva, M., Caeiro, E.,

Ferro, R., Coelho, M. and Leiria-Pinto, P. (2014). Pollen concentrations and

emergency department visits for asthma and wheeze in Lisbon. In Allergy, 69 pp: 16-

16. 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA: WILEY-BLACKWELL.

European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology Congress, 7 – 11 June

2014, Copenhagen, Denmark. (poster).

Bras-Geraldes, C., Papoila, A., Xufre, P and Sousa, L. (2014). Generalized Additive

Neural Networks for mortality prediction: Model selection comparison. EURO Mini-

conference on Optimization in the Natural Sciences (EURO-mini 2014), Aveiro,

Portugal, February 5-9

Campos, P., Dias, C., Baptista, J., Papoila, A. L., Ortiz, A., Inchaustegui, L., & Soto,

K. (2014, May). Chronic kidney disease evolution in HIV infected patients, two years

of follow-up. In Nephrology dialysis transplantation, 29 pp. 373-373. GREAT

CLARENDON ST, OXFORD OX2 6DP, ENGLAND: OXFORD UNIV PRESS. 51st

ERA-EDTA Congress, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, 31 May-3 June, 2014. (poster)

Campos, P.P., Dias, C., Pereira, F.G., Ortiz, A., Papoila, A.L. and Soto, K. (2014).

Markers of CKD in HIV+ Patients. Journal of the American Society of Nephrology,

Abstract Supplement, November 2014, 25, pp 940A Abstract Edition.

https://www.asn-online.org/abstracts, (PUB205). Kidney-Week, Philadelphia - USA,

PA November 11-16, 2014 (poster).


67

Cardoso, G. and Papoila, A. (2014). Predictors of depression and anxiety: A follow-

up study of patients starting chemotherapy. In Journal of Psychosomatic Research 76

(6), pp: 498-498. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychores.2014.03.026 Annual

Meeting of the European Association of Psychosomatic Medicine 2014, 25th – 28th

of June, Sibiu, Romania (poster).

Cardoso, G. and Papoila, A. (2014). Impact of chemotherapy on the levels of

depression, anxiety, and psychological distress: a follow-up study. Annual Meeting of

the European Association of Psychosomatic Medicine 2014, 25th – 28th of June,

Sibiu, Romania (poster).

Inácio de Carvalho, V., de Carvalho, M., Alonzo, T.A. and González-Manteiga, W.

(2014) Functional partial AUC regression with an application to a metabolic

syndrome study. 2nd Conference of the International Society of Nonparametric

Statistics, Cádiz, Spain, June 12-16, 2014.

Inácio de Carvalho, V., Jara, A., Hanson. T. E. and de Carvalho, M.(2014) Bayesian

Nonparametric ROC regression modeling JSM (Joint Statistical Meetings) 2014,

Boston, August 2-7, 2014. (This is a topic contributed session, sponsored by SBSS,

on Paper Highlights from the journal Bayesian Analysis. Four speakers will present

their papers, published in BA and selected by the EiC for presentation.)

Paula Simões, Sílvia Shrubsall, Isabel Natário: A Spatial Econometrics Analysis for

Road Accidents in Lisbon. In Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA

2014. Edts: Murgante B., Misra S., Rocha A.M.A.C., Torre C., Rocha J.G., Falcão

M., Taniar D., Apduhan B.O., Gervasi O. Lecture Notes in Computer Science

Volume 8581: 269-283. url: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09150-1_20.

Pereira, P., Turkman, K.F., (2014) “A Marked Spatio-Temporal Point Process Model

for Forest Fires in Portugal”. VII International Workshop on Spatio-Temporal

Modelling (METMA VII) and GRASPA14, Torino (Itália), de 10 a 12 de Setembro.

http://meetings.sis-statistica.org/index.php/graspametma14/metma7graspa14

Pinheiro B, Fernandes M, Antunes M. Determinants of health care utilization in

hypertensive patients: a longitudinal analysis. ORAHS 2014. 20-25 July 2014,

Lisbon, Portugal.

Pinheiro B, Fernandes M, Antunes M. Determinants of health care utilization in

hypertensive patients: a longitudinal analysis. ISPOR 17th Annual European

Congress. 8-12 November 2014, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.

Polidoro, M. J., Magalhães, F. J. and Turkman, M. A. A..(2014)“Classical and

Bayesian Goodness-of-fit Tests for the Exponential Model: A Comparative Study”.

Computational and Applied Statistics 2014(CAS) – International Conference on

Computational Science and ist Applications – ICCSA, Universidade do Minho, Polo

de Guimarães, 30 de junho de 2014 a 3 de julho de 2014.

Proença M. C., M. T. Rebelo, M. Antunes, M. J. Alves, H. Osório and REVIVE team.

Using remote sensed data to assess danger from virus vector in Portugal.

ForestSAT2014: a bridge between forest sciences, remote sensing and geo-spatial

applications, Riva del Garda, 4-7 November 2014

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jpsychores.2014.03.026

http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09150-1_20

http://meetings.sis-statistica.org/index.php/graspametma14/metma7graspa14


68

Ramos Sandra, Antónia Amaral Turkman, Marília Antunes. A Bayesian

nonparametric approach to a medical screening problem. Bayesian Biostatistics 2014-

Satellite conference of the International Biometric Conference, July 2-5, University

of Zurich, Switzerland

Reis-Santos, J. Monteiro, A.R. and Papoila, A.L. (2014). Indirect benefits of the

financial crisis on the national health service – A reduction in the incidence of

urolithiasis in the greater area of Lisbon-Portugal. 2nd ESD “Experts in Stone

Disease” Conference, Cape Town, South Africa, December 10-13, 2014. (poster)

http://esdconference.com/poster-presentations

Ribeiro, C., Amaral Turkman, M.A. e Cardoso, J.C., (2014) An application of

generalized dynamic linear models in road safety, Satellite Workshop of the IBC2014

on Spatio-Temporal Statistics, 13-14 July 2014, Valencia, 24.

Ribeiro, C., Amaral Turkman, M.A. e Cardoso, J.C.,(2014) Generalized dynamic

linear models: Na application to Portugal road accident data, METMA VII -

GRASPA14, 11-12 September 2014, Torino, Itália, 40.

Silva C, Freitas A, Roque S, Sousa L. Arrow plot and CA maps on microarray

preprocessing methods. In 14th International Conference on Computational Sciences

and Applications (ICCSA 2014), Guimarães, 30th June to 3rd July 2014. IEEE; 2014.

p. 229-32.

Soto, K., Cunha, L.M.G., Pinto, I., Ortiz, A. and Papoila, A.L. (2014). Serum Cystatin

C Is a Predictor of Long-Term Outcomes of Critically Ill Patients with Acute Kidney

Injury. Journal of the American Society of Nephrology, Abstract Supplement, 25, pp:

136A-136A, Abstract Edition. https://www.asn-online.org/abstracts, (PO120).

Kidney-Week, Philadelphia - USA, PA November 11-16, 2014 (poster).

Subtil, A., Zea Bermudez, P. , Gonçalves, L. Bayesian latent class models for the

evaluation of diagnostic tests in multiple populations, 35th Annual Conference of the

International Society for Clinical Biostatistics, 24 - 28 August 2014, Vienna, Austria.

Veiga, L., Brito, M., Oliveira, A., Silva-Fortes, C., Silva Nunes, J. (2014). Desacyl-

ghrelin does not influence insulin sensitivity. Obesity Facts (suppl 1) page 71:

T1:PO.093 , European Congress on Obesity (ECO2014), Sófia – Bulgária. URL:

http://www.karger.com/Journal/Issue/261779

Viriato D, Antunes M. Impact of value communication in decision making: An

approach to the treatment of type 2 diabetes in Portugal. ISPOR 17th Annual

European Congress. 8-12 November 2014, Amsterdam, The Netherlands

Communications National

Afonso, A., Gonçalves, L., Belo, S., Ecoepidemiologia de Dirofilaria spp – a

perspetiva humana, IV Congresso de Saúde Pública, 2-3 Outubro 2014, Fórum Lisboa

(Portugal)

Alves, D., Santos, Z., Simões, R., Amado, M., Craveiro, I., Cabral, J., Lapão L.V.,

Delgado, A.P., Correia, A., Gonçalves, L., Doenças Crónicas e Determinantes

Socioeconómicos e Ambientais – o exemplo da Cidade da Praia. I Encontro Luso-

http://esdconference.com/poster-presentations


69

Galaico de Estatística em Ambiente e Ecologia, 6-8 Novembro 2014, Vila Real

(Portugal).

Antunes Marília, Daniel Viriato. Análise espaço-temporal dos internamentos

hospitalares por insuficiência cardíaca em Portugal. I Encontro Luso-Galaico de

Estatística em Ambiente e Ecologia, 6-8 Nov 2014, Vila Real, Portugal.

Carvalho M L, Natário I, Figueiredo I, Veiga N. Análise de Fronteira Estocástica da

Pescaria do Peixe-espada Preto em Portugal. I Encontro Luso-Galaico de Estatística

em Ambiente e Ecologia (EES2014), Vila Real, Novembro de 2014, Programa e

Resumos, pp. 42-43

Costa, E., Oliveira, L., Gonçalves, L., Dias, C.M, O padrão alimentar da população

portuguesa com diabetes auto relatada: dados do 4º Inquérito Nacional de Saúde, IV

Congresso de Saúde Pública, 2-3 Outubro 2014, Fórum Lisboa (Portugal)

Gonçalves, D., Santos, Z., Amado, M., Simões, R., Alves, D., Craveiro, I., Cabral, J.,

Lapão L.V., Delgado, A.P., Correia, A., Amostragem por coordenadas geográficas em

ambiente urbano – Um estudo na Cidade da Praia em Cabo Verde. I Encontro Luso-

Galaico de Estatística em Ambiente e Ecologia, 6-8 Novembro, Vila Real (Portugal).

Martins, R., Silva, G. and Andreozzi, V.(2014) Joint Analysis of Longitudinal and

Survival AIDS. The One-day Workshop on Spatio-temporal Models in Epidemiology

and Health 20 Junho 2014, Lisbon.

Pereira, P., Turkman, K.F., (2014) “Modelos para a Localização e Área Ardida dos

Incêndios Florestais em Portugal”. I Encontro Luso-Galaico de Estatística em

Ambiente e Ecologia (EES2014), Vila Real (Portugal), de 6 a 8 de

Novembro.http://eio.usc.es/pub/ees2014/

Ramos Sandra, Antónia Amaral Turkman, Marília Antunes. Abordagem bayesiana

não paramétrica do problema de triagem. Encontro Nacional da SPM 2014,

Probabilidades e Estatística. 14-16 Julho 2014, UNL Campus da Caparica, Portugal

Ribeiro, C., Amaral Turkman, M.A. e Cardoso, J.C., Generalized Dynamic Linear

Models (2014) An application to road safety, One-Day Workshop on Spatio-

Temporal Models in Epidemiology and Health, Lisbon, 20th June 2014.

Ribeiro, C., Amaral Turkman, M.A. e Cardoso, J.C., Generalized dynamic linear

models using R-INLA: an application, First Luso-Galaico Meeting of Statistics on

Environment and Ecology, 7th November 2014, Vila Real, Portugal, 9.

Santos, Z., Alves, D., Simões, R., Amado, M., Craveiro, I., Cabral, J., Lapão L.V.,

Delgado, A.P., Correia, A., Gonçalves, L., Excesso de peso e obesidade no contexto

africano. XVIII Congresso Português de Obesidade, 24-26 Outubro 2014, Aveiro

(Portugal).

São-João, R., Papoila, A.L. e Miranda, A. (2014). Lung cancer incidence in Southern

Portugal 1998-2006: a spatio-temporal analysis. The One-day Workshop on Spatio-

temporal Models in Epidemiology and Health, FCUL-DEIO-CEAUL, Lisboa, 2014.


70

Simões, R., Alves, D., Moura, E., Santos, Z., Cabral, J., Lapão L.V., Craveiro, I.,

Amado, M., Gonçalves, L., Projeto UPHI-STAT: Amostragem por coordenadas

geográficas – a relação entre planeamento urbano e saúde na Cidade da Praia.

Seminário no Departamento de Ciência e Tecnologia da Universidade de Cabo Verde

(UNICV), 19 Março 2014, Cidade da Praia (Cabo Verde).

Simões, R., Alves, D., Moura, E., Santos, Z., Cabral, J., Lapão L.V., Craveiro, I.,

Amado, M., Gonçalves, L., Projeto UPHI-STAT: Amostragem por coordenadas

geográficas – a relação entre planeamento urbano e saúde na Cidade da Praia. 8th

Workshop on Statistics, Mathematics and Computation, 12-15 Março 2014, Cidade da

Praia (Cabo Verde).

Meetings – organization and scientific responsibilities

G. Silva: Chair of the Organizing Committee of Workshop on Spatial-Temporal

Models in Epidemiology and Health, Lisbon, June 20th 2014.

G. Silva: Member of the Scientific Committee of I Portuguese-Galician Meeting of

Statistics on Environment and Ecology, Vila Real, November 6-8th, 2014.

C. D. Paulino: Member of the Scientific Committee of the XXII Meeting of

Portuguese Statistical Society – Faro, October 2015.

C. D. Paulino: Member of jury for assessment of applications to positions in Dep.

Exact Sciences, Federal University of Lavras, Brazil, June 2014.

N. Sepúlveda: Member of the Statistical Advisory Board of PLoS One (2014-).

A.L. Papoila: Comissão científica do “The One-day Workshop on Spatio-temporal

Models in Epidemiology and ealth”, organizado por FCUL/DEIO/CEAUL,

realizado a 20 de Junho de 2014.

A.L. Papoila: Comissão científica da 7ª Semana APFH – 17º Simpósio Nacional da

Associação Portuguesa de Farmacêuticos Hospitalares promovido pela Associação

Portuguesa de Farmacêuticos Hospitalares (APFH), realizado entre 19 a 21 de

Novembro no Centro de Congressos do Estoril.

Natário, I. Member of the Organizing Committee of the EU COST FA1103 Training

School 2014: Experimental Design and Statistical Data Analysis: applications in R for

environmental, biological and health data. Évora University. 20-24 October 2014.

http://www.cost-fa1103.uevora.pt/.

Sousa, L. The One-day Workshop on Spatio-temporal Models in Epidemiology and

Health, FCUL, Lisboa- Portugal, june 20, 2014. Member of the Local Organizing

Committee.

Sousa, L. 11th International Conference in Computational Management Science,

FCUL, Lisboa-Portugal, may 29-31, 2014. Member of the Local Organizing

Committee.


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Sousa, L. EURO Mini-conference on Optimization in the Natural Sciences,

Universidade de Aveiro- Portugal, 5-9, 2014. Member of the Scientific Committee.

De Zea Bermudez One-day Workshop on Spatial-Temporal Models in Epidemiology

and Health", Faculty of Sciences of the University of Lisbon, 20 June. Member of the

Organization Committee and Responsible for the web page construction, assisted by

Marília Antunes

4.3.4. Advanced Training

Ph.D. concluded

Maria João Fernandes Pereira Polidoro, 2014 'Metodologia Bayesiana e adequação de

modelos' Suervisor: Maria Antónia Amaral Turkman, Fernando Magalhães.

Pereira, Paula Cristina Sequeira, Métodos Probabilísticos e Estatísticos na Gestão de

Fogos Florestais, DEIO/FCUL, December 2014, Supervisor:Kamil Feridun Turkman

http://gi3ceaul.fc.ul.pt/finalreport.htm

Ms.C. concluded

Miguel Maria Sousa Pereira, 2014 ‘Intragenic initiation in SETD2 deficient cells’.

Supervisor: Lisete Maria Ribeiro de Sousa

Patricia Soares , 2014 ‘Insights into tuberculosis: a survival analysis of time to

recurrence’ Supervisor: Cristina Simões Rocha

Liliana do Carmo Cerdeira Antunes, 2014 ‘Modelação do atraso na notificação dos

óbitos no sistema de vigilância diária da mortalidade’ Supervisor: Marília Cristina

Sousa Antunes

Advanced courses

De Haan, L. Short course (with John Einmahl) at the university of Aveiro on April

30, May 1 and 2.

Specialization Courses

Papoila A.L.

• “Curso teórico-prático de Bioestatística com utilização do programa SPSS”,

organizado pelo Conselho Regional Norte da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estomatologia

e Medicina Dentária e que decorreu no Porto, na Sede do Conselho Regional do

Norte, nos dias 12 e 13 de Junho de 2014, com a duração de 16 horas.

• “Curso prático de Bioestatística em SPSS”, organizado pelo Centro ospitalar

de Lisboa Central, EPE, no âmbito das V Jornadas da Área de Diagnóstico

Biomédico, realizado na Faculdade de Ciências Médicas da UNL, no dia 13 de Maio

de 2014.

http://gi3ceaul.fc.ul.pt/finalreport.htm


72

• “Introductory Biostatistics” (IBSTAT14), organizado pelo Gulbenkian

Training Programme in Bioinformatics, realizado no Instituto Gulbenkian de Ciência

em 2-6 Junho de 2014.

• Módulo “Bioestatística e metodologia de investigação” da Pós-Graduação em

Emergência e Medicina Intensiva (duração: 10 horas)

• Unidade Curricular Bioestatística I do Curso Doutoral (36 horas) (regente e

docente)

• Unidade Curricular Bioestatística II do Curso Doutoral (36 horas) (regente e

docente)

• Docência do Módulo “Confundimento e interacção” inserido na UC

Epidemiologia do Curso Doutoral

• Informática e Aplicações de Informática Médica (3º Ano, 32 horas, regente)

• Responsável pelo módulo da Bioestatística inserida na UC Saúde Pública,

Epidemiologia e Bioestatística (48 horas x 4)

Natário, I. Trainee of the EU COST FA1103 Training School 2014: Experimental

Design and Statistical Data Analysis: applications in R for environmental, biological

and health data. Évora University. 20-24 October 2014. http://www.cost-

fa1103.uevora.pt/.

Other activities

M. A. Turkman: Co-Editor of REVSTAT – Statistical Journal

K. F. Turkman: Associate Editor of REVSTAT – Statistical Journal and of the JSTP

C. D. Paulino:

Associate Editor of REVSTAT – Statistical Journal (2014- ) Invited visiting researcher, Federal University of Lavras, Brazil, April-July

2014. Course: Analysis of Categorical Data.

G. Silva:

Guest editor (joint with M. Antónia A. Turkman) of special issue of RevStat: - Statistical Journal on Spatial-temporal Models in Epidemiology and Health (to appear in 2015).

PhD thesis committee, Dep. Mathematics, University of Minho, May 7th 2014 - Methods for analysis of multi-state survival data.

PhD thesis committee: Dep. Statistics -IME, University of São Paulo, March 14th 2014 – “Modelos Birnbaum-Saunders para sobrevivência com dados longitudinais”.

Invited visiting researcher of the Canadian project “Stochastic Modelling of Forest Dynamics”, Department of Statistical and Actuarial Sciences, University of Western Ontario, 2014.


73

C. Ribeiro Membro da equipa do Projecto de investigação da Universidade Federal do

Ceará Título do projeto: Análise espaço-temporal de indicadores de desenvolvimento

sustentável dos municípios brasileiros.

Sousa, L. Artigo de opinião: "Estatística e Bioinformática", no âmbito do Ano

Internacional da Estatística, INFO FCUL, janeiro de 2014.

https://www.fc.ul.pt/noticia/27-01-2014/importancia-da-estatistica-na-bioinformatica.

https://www.fc.ul.pt/noticia/27-01-2014/importancia-da-estatistica-na-bioinformatica


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75

ANNEX 1 Members of CEAUL - 2014

Members of CEAUL

Integrated

Name

Category

Academic Degree

Institution

Laurens de Haan

Jubilee Full Professor Ph.D University Lisbon & University Rotterdam

Dinis Duarte Ferreira Pestana

Full Professor Aggregation FCUL-DEIO

Fernando Manuel Fialho Rosado

Full Professor Aggregation FCUL - DEIO

Kamil Feridun Turkman


Maria Antónia Amaral Turkman


Maria Ivette Leal de Carvalho Gomes


Maria Manuela Costa Neves Figueiredo

Full Professor Aggregation Instituto Superior de Agronnomia

Carlos Daniel Paulino

Associate Professor Aggregation Instituto Superior Técnico

Maria Isabel Fraga Alves

Associate Professor Aggregation FCUL - DEIO

Jorge Fi lipe Campinos Landerset Cadima

Associate Professor Ph.D Instituto Superior de Agronomia

Luisa da Conceição S. Canto e Castro Loura

Associate Professor Ph.D FCUL - DEIO

Maria Lucíl ia Salema e Carvalho

Associate Professor Ph.D FCUL-DEIO

Maria Salomé Esteves Cabral


Rita Maria C. e Sá Fernandes de Vasconcelos

Associate Professor Ph.D Univ. Madeira

José Leonel Linhares da Rocha

Coordinator Professor Ph.D Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa

Sandra Maria da Silva Figueiredo Aleixo

Coordinator Professor Ph.D Instituto Superior de Engenharia de Lisboa

Amílcar Manuel do Rosário Oliveira

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Universidade Aberta

Ana Luísa Trigoso Papoila da Silva

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Fac. Ciências Médicas-UNL

Ana Maria Santos Ferreira Gorjão Henriques

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Instituto Superior de Agronomia

Clara Maria Henrique Cordeiro

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Universidade Algarve

Cláudia Margarida Pedrosa Neves

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D

Cristina Maria Tristão Simões Rocha

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D FCUL - DEIO

Fernanda Otíl ia de Sousa Figueiredo

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D FEP-UP

Fernando José Araújo Correia da Ponte Sequeira


Giovani Loiola da Silva

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Instituto Superior Técnico

Isabel Cristina Maciel Natário

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D FCT-UNL-DM

Lisete Maria Ribeiro de Sousa


Luzia Augusta Pires Gonçalves

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical - UNL

Maria de Fátima Almeida Brilhante

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Universidade dos Açores

Maria Fernanda Nunes Diamantino


Maria Helena Neves Queirós Gonçalves

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Universidade do Algarve

Marí lia Cristina de Sousa Antunes

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D FCUL-DEIO

Patrícia Cortés de Zea Bermudez


Paulo José de Jesus Soares

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Instituto Superior Técnico

Sandra Maria Freitas Mendonça

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Univ. da Madeira

Sí lvio Fi lipe Velosa

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Universidade da Madeira

Teresa Paula Costa Azinheira Oliveira

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Universidade Aberta

Vanda Calhau Fernandes Inácio

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Universidade é Pontif icia Universidad Católica de Chi le

Valeska Andreozzi

Invited Auxil iar Professor Ph.D Faculdade de Ciências Médicas da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Carina Soares da Si lva Fortes

Adjoint Professor Ph.D Escola Superior Tecnologia Saúde Lisboa

João Paulo Oliveira Martins

Adjoint Professor Ph.D ESTG - Instituto Politécnico de Leiria

Lígia Carla Pinto Henriques Jorge Rodrigues

Adjoint Professor Ph.D ESTT - Instituto Politécnico Tomar

Maria da Conceição Rodrigues Ribeiro

Adjoint Professor Ph.D Instituto Superior de Engenharia da Universidade do Algarve

Maria João Fernandes Pereira Polidoro

Adjoint Professor Ph.D

Instituto Politécnico do Porto, Escola Superior de Tecnologia e Gestão de Felgueiras (IPP|ESTGF)

Miguel Martins Felgueiras

Adjoint Professor Ph.D Escola Superior Tecnologia e Gestão Leiria

Paula Cristina Martins dos Reis

Adjoint Professor Ph.D EST-IPS

Paulo José Araújo dos Santos

Adjoint Professor Ph.D ESGS-IPS

Ricardo Augusto Domingues Gomes de Sá e Sousa

Adjoint Professor Ph.D Escola Superior de Tecnologia da Saúde de Lisboa

Rui Fil ipe Vargas de Sousa Santos

Adjoint Professor Ph.D Instituto Politécnico Leiria

Sandra Cristina Faria Ramos

Adjoint Professor Ph.D ISEP-IPP

Cristiana Maria Palmela Pereira

Auxiliar Researcher Ph.D FMDUL

Ivone Maria Ribeiro Figueiredo da Silva Rosa

Auxiliar Researcher Ph.D Laboratório de Investigação das Pescas e do Mar

Bangalore Manjunath Research Fellow Ph.D

Nuno Henriques dos Santos Sepulveda

Research Fellow Ph.D London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine

Bjorn Vandewalle

Other Ph.D Exigo Consultores

Colaborators (PhD)

Name

Category

Academic Degree

Institution

Helena Bacelar-Nicolau

Full Professor Aggregation FPUL / LEAD

Helena Maria Simões Ferreira

Full Professor Aggregation Universidade da Beira Interiorrior

Helena Maria Iglésias Pereira


Maria Eugénia Santos Lino Pires da Graça Martins

Associate Professor Ph.D FCUL-DEIO

Sandra Cristina Dias Nunes

Coordinator Professor Ph.D ESCE - IPS

Ana Isabel Carita Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Faculdade Motricidade Humana

Ana Paula André Martins

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Universidade da Beira Interior

Carlos Manuel Cravo Ventura

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Universidade dos Açores

Jorge M.Mendes

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D ISEGI-UNL

Júlia Maria Vitorino Teles

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Universidade Técnica de Lisboa

Luís Miguel dos Santos Reis Soares de Almeida

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Clínica Dermatológica Universitária de Lisboa

Luísa Maria Jota Pereira Amaral

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Universidade da Beira Interior

Manuel González Scotto

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D University of Aveiro

Margarida Maria Teixeira Diniz Mendes Leal


Maria da Graça Santos Temido Neves Mendes

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Univ.Coimbra-DM

Maria Fernanda Adão dos Santos Fernandes de Oliveira


Miguel de Carvalho

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chi le

Paula Marta Bruno Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Faculdade Motricidade Humana

Regina Maria Baltazar Bispo Carita

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D ISPA.IU e DEIO/FCUL

Susana Maria Gouveia Rosado Ganhão

Auxiliar Professor Ph.D Fac. Arquitectura-UTL

Maria Luísa Silva Rocha Invited Auxil iar Professor Ph.D Universidade dos Açores

Fernando José Malheiro de Magalhães

Adjoint Professor Ph.D ISCAP

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76

Maria Cristina Souto Miranda

Adjoint Professor Ph.D ISCA, Univ.Aveiro

Baltazar Emanuel Guerreiro Nunes Bravo Nunes

Superior Technician Ph.D

Departamento de Epidemiologia, Instituto Nacional de Saúde Dr. Ricardo Jorge

Pedro Duarte Leal Gomes Pestana Non-applicable Ph.D

Colaborators (PhD Students)

Name

Category

Academic Degree

Institution

Ana Sofia Monteiro de Araújo Soares Invited Auxil iar Professor M.Sc.

Maria Manuela Caria Figueira Sá Neves

Adjoint Professor M.Sc. Instituto Politécnico Guarda

Paula Cristina Sequeira Pereira

Equivalent to Adjoint Professor M.Sc. ESTSetúbal - IPS

Ricardo Miguel Vieira de São João

Equivalent to Adjoint Professor M.Sc.

Délia Canha Gouveia Reis

Assistant M.Sc. Universidade da Madeira

Maria Inês Tomás de Oliveira Pascoal de Sousa Dias

Assistant M.Sc. Universidade de Évora

Pedro Alexandre Gonzaga Rosário Assistant M.Sc. FCUL /DEIO

Carlos José Brás Geraldes

Invited Assistant M.Sc. Faculdade de Ciências Médicas da Universidade Nova de Lisboa

Helena Alexandra Couceiro Feio de Almeida Penalva

Equivalent to Assistant of 1st Triennio

M.Sc. ESCE - IPS

Paulo Jose Figueira Semblano

Superior Technician M.Sc. Caixa Geral de Depósitos

Vítor Manuel Fernandes Valente

High School Teacher M.Sc. Escola Secundária Rainha Dona Amélia (Lisboa)

Soraia Alexandra Gonçalves Pereira Monitor M.Sc. Faculdade Ciências Universidade Lisboa

Ana Patrícia Subtil da Graça Freitas Garcia Student M.Sc.

Clandio Timm Marques Student M.Sc.

César Duarte Alves da Rocha Other M.Sc.

Sérgio Luís Ganhão Vicente Other M.Sc.

Colaborators (non-PhD)

Name

Category

Academic Degree

Institution

António Alberto Oliveira

Assistant M.Sc. Universidade de Belas - Luanda

Arciolindo de Conceição Pinheiro Superior Technician M.Sc.

André Simões Sintra Student M.Sc.

Lil iana do Carmo Cerdeira Antunes Student M.Sc.


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http://www.esec-rainha-d-amelia.rcts.pt/







77

ANNEX 2

Conferences, Seminars, and Other Events

Conferences Title Location Date

WORKSHOP: One-day Workshop on Spatial -Temporal Models in Epidemiology and Health

Fundação FCUL - Campo Grande - Bloco C1 Piso 3 - Anfiteatro FFCUL - 9:30h -18:00h

20-Jun-2014

CONFERENCE SMTDA2014 - 3rd Stochastic Modeling Techniques and Data Analysis International Conference

Lisboa, VIP Executive Hotel 11-Jun-2014 14-Jun-2014

WSMC8 - The 8th Workshop on Statistics, Mathematics and Computation

City of Praia - Cabo Verde, at the Instituto Superior de Ciências Económicas e Empresariais (ISCEE)

12-Mar-2014 15-Mar-2014

Seminars

Title Speaker/Institution Location Date

SEMINÁRIO: Estimating Correlation using Intraday Price Data in Financial Markets

Dr. Valentin Popov - Centre for Research into Ecological and Environmental Modelling - University of St. Andrews -

Scotland -

FCUL - Campo Grande - Bloco C6 Piso 2 - Sala:

6.2.52 - 14:30h 20-Mar-2015

SEMINÁRIO: On the Reconstruction of Malaria Infection History in the Brazi lian Amazonia Region

Prof. Nuno Sepúlveda - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, United Kingdom/Center of Statistics

and Applications of University of Lisbon, Portugal -

FCUL (DEIO) - Campo Grande - Bloco C6 Piso 4 -

Sala: 6.4.30- 14:30h 14-Jan-2015

SEMINÁRIO: A High Order Moments Method for Endpoint and Frontier Estimation

Prof. Gi lles Stupfler - Aix-Marseille Université - Groupement de Recherche en Économie -

Universidade de Aveiro - Departamento Matemática

- Sala Sousa Pinto - 15:00h

14-Jan-2015

SEMINÁRIO: Spatial Extreme Value Analysis for Fire Risk Assessment

Prof. Ben Shaby - Statistics Department - Penn State University - USA -

Fundação FCUL (Anfiteatro) - Bloco C1 Piso 3 - FCUL - Campo

Grande - 14:30h

7-Jan-2015

SEMINÁRIO: Big, Complex and Linked Environmental Data -Meeting the Statistical Challenges

Profª Marian Scott -School of Mathematics and Statistics - University of Glasgow -


Sala: 6.4.31 - 14:30h 18-Dec-2014

SEMINÁRIO ÃMBITO MESTRADO BIOESTATÍSTICA - 1) Adjusting the Mortality of Birds and Bats in Wind Farms for Carcass Removal - 2) Modelos de Regressão Logística para a Deteção de Jovens Talentos no Desporto

Profª Regina Bispo - ISPA - Instituto Universitário e DEIO -FCUL / Profª Ana Isabel Carita - Secção Autónoma de

Métodos Matemáticos Faculdade Motricidade Humnana, UL -


6.2.47 - 16:30h 17-Dec-2014

SEMINÁRIOS ÂMBITO MESTRADO BIOESTATÍSTICA: 1) Identificação e Análise Forense - Um Contributo da Estatística Bayesiana - 2) Factors Associated with Longer Delays in Reperfusion in ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Profª Marina Andrade - Departamento Matemática - Instituto Universitário Lisboa (ISCTE) / Profª Daisy Abreu - Unidade de Farmacologia Clínica - Instituto de Medicina

Molecular - FMUL -


6.2.45 - 16:30h 12-Dec-2014

SEMINÁRIO: Modelação Estocástica do Surto de Doença dos Legionários de Outubro/Novembro de 2014 em Vila Franca de Xira

Profª Maria Lucíl ia - FCUL/CEAUL - Prof. Paulo Nogueira - Direcção Geral Saúde - Prof. Baltazar Nunes - Instituto

Nacional Saúde Ricardo Jorge -


Sala: 6.4.31 - 15:30h 12-Dec-2014

SEMINÁRIOS: 1) Modelo para a Construção da Cidade Energeticamente Eficiente 2) Modelos Preditivos para a Estimativa de Risco de Emergência de Doenças Transmitidas por mosquitos: a Realidade por detr ás dos Números

Prof. Miguel Amado - Departamento Engenharia Civi l - Faculdade Ciências Tecnologia/UNL - Profª Carla Sousa -

Instituto Higiene e Medicina Tropical/UNL -


Sala: 6.4.31 - 14:30h 11-Dec-2014

SEMINÁRIO ÃMBITO MESTRADO BIOESTATÍSTICA - Genome-wide Analysis of Intragenic Transcription Initiation Induced by SETD2 Depletion

Profª Ana Rita Grosso - Instituto de Medicina Molecular, Faculdade de Medicina - Universidade de Lisboa -


Sala: 6.2.45 - 17:00h 5-Dec-2014

SEMINÁRIO: Birnbaum-Saunders Autoregressive Conditional Duration Models Applied to Financial Data

Prof. Victor Leiva - Facultad de Ingenieria Y Ciencias - Universidad Adolfo Ibáñez - Chi le -


Sala: 6.4.30 - 14:30h 3-Dec-2014

SEMINÁRIO ÃMBITO MESTRADO BIOESTATÍSTICA - Validação do Diagnóstico de Enfermagem "Angústia Espiritual"

Profª Sí lvia Caldeira - Instituto de Ciência da Saúde/Centro de Investigação Interdisciplinar em Saúde -

Universidade Católica Portuguesa -


Sala: 6.2.46 - 17:00h 3-Dec-2014

SEMINÁRIO: Extreme Value Statistics for Truncated Pareto-Type Distributions

Prof. Jan Beirlant - Department of Mathematics and Leuven Statistics Research Center - KU Leuven -


Sala: 6.4.30 - 14:30h 13-Nov-2014

SEMINÁRIO: Spatio-Temporal Models for Skewed Processes

Profª Alexandra M. Schmidt - Instituto Matemática/Universidade Federal Rio Janeiro -


Sala: 6.4.31 - 14:30h 3-Nov-2014

SEMINÁRIO: KOLMOGOROV’S STORIES

Prof. Asaf Hajiyev - Member of Azerbaijan Parliament/Correspondent member of Azerbaijan National

Academy of Sciences -


Sala: 6.4.30 - 15:00h 21-Jul-2014

SEMINÁRIO: Statistical Distance Methods

Prof. Christos Kitsos - Technological Educational Institute of Athens - Department of Informatics, Greece -


Sala: 6.4.30 - 15:30h 12-Jun-2014

SEMINÁRIOS 1) On the Block Maxima Method in Extreme Value Theory - 2) Nonparametric Estimation of Extreme Risks from Heavy-Tai led Distributions

Prof. Doutor Laurens de Haan - Erasmus University Rotterdam & CEAUL / Prof. Doutor Stéphane Girard - LJK

& Inria Grenoble Rhône-Alpes, France -


Sala: 6.4.31 - 14:00h - 16:00h

28-May-2014

SEMINÁRIO: Processos FIEGARCH Sazonais

Profª Sí lvia Regina Costa Lopes - IM / Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul - Brasi l -


Sala: 6.4.30 - 15:00h 28-Apr-2014

SEMINÁRIO: Change Point Detection in Panel Data

Prof. Lajos Horváth - Department of Mathematics - University of Utah - USA -

FCUL (DEIO) - Bloco C6 Piso 4 - Campo Grande -

Sala: 6.4.31 - 14:30 horas 2-Apr-2014

http://www.ceaul.fc.ul.pt/seeevent.html?id=320


















































78

Seminário 1) On the Use of Antibody Data to Assessing Malaria Transmission Intensity - Seminário 2) Information Theory Applications for Sequence Analysis and Collaborative Projects in Systems Biomedicine

Prof. Nuno Sepúlveda - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK & CEAUL / Profª Susana Vinga -

IDMEC/IST- UL -

FCUL (DEIO) - Campo Grande - Bloco C6 Piso 4

Sala 6.4.31 - 14:00h - 16:00h

22-Jan-2014

SEMINÁRIO GERACIONAL: 1) O Meu Affaire Duradouro com a Beta 2) Funções Monótonas de Ordem R e Probabilidade 3) Testes Laboratoriais a Amostras Miscigenadas

Prof. Doutor Dinis Pestana - FCUL (DEIO) & CEAUL / Prof. Doutora Sandra Mendonça - Universidade Madeira & Ceaul

/ Prof. Doutor João Paulo Martins - ESTG, Instituto Politécnico Leiria & CEAUL -

FUNDAÇÃO FCUL Bloco C1 Piso 3 - Anfiteatro -

Campo Grande - 14:00 h - 16:30 h

15-Jan-2014

Title Location Date

SHORT COURSE: On Flexible Bayesian Methods for Diagnosis and ROC Curve Estimation

FCUL (DEIO) - Campo Grande - Bloco C6 Piso 4 - Sala 6.4.30 - (dia 4 Junho 2014) 14:30h -18:00h, Sala 6.4.30 (dia 5 Junho 2014) 9:30h -18:00h e Sala 6.4.31 (6 Junho 2014) 9:30h -18:00h

4-Jun-2014 6-Jun-2014

SHORT COURSE: Empirical Processes and their Applications to Extreme Value Statistics

Universidade Aveiro - Departamento Matemática - Sala Sousa Pinto 30-Abr-2014 2-Mai-2014













79

ANNEX 3

INDICATORS of SUCCESS 2014

Books International 1

Chaper of Books International 14

Books Editor 3

Proceedings International 29+ 11

Papers in International Periodicals 53 + 10

Communications in International Meetings 87

Books National 2

Chapters of Books National 2

Editors National 1

Proceedings National 11

Papers in National Periodicals 6

Communications in National Meetings 36

Reports 9

Organization of Seminars and Conferences 20

Advanced Training: Ph.D. theses 5

Advanced Training: M.Sc.. theses 14

Advanced Training: Short Courses 2

Software 2


80


81

ANNEX 4

Complete list of publications 2014

BOOKS INTERNATIONAL

1. Turkman, K. F., Scotto, M. G. and de Zea Bermudez, P. (2014). Non-

Linear Time Series: Extreme Events and Integer Value Problems. Springer.


CHAPTERS OF BOOKS INTERNATIONAL

1. Araújo Santos, P. and Fraga Alves, M.I. (2014). Extremal quantiles, Value-

at- Risk, quasi-PORT and DPOT. In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R.,


Applications. Springer Series Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics,

Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies, ISBN978-3-319-05322-6, Springer

International Publishing Switzerland, Springer International Publishing, pp.

155-161. http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-05323-3

2. Brilhante, M.F., Gomes, M.I. and Pestana, D. (2014). The Mean-of-order p

Extreme Index Estimator Revisited. In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira,




http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-05323-3

3. Brilhante, M.F., Pestana, D.. and Rocha, M. Luísa. (2014). Cantor Sets with

Random Repair. In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R., and Paulino, C.D.

(eds.), New Advances in Statistical Modeling and Applications. Studies in




4. Caeiro, F. and Gomes, M.I. (2014). A semi-parametric estimator of a shape

second order parameter, In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R., and

Paulino, C.D. (eds.), New Advances in Statistical Modeling and Applications.


Societies, Springer-Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, pp. 137-144.


5. Cordeiro, C. and Neves, M.M. (2014). Forecast intervals with Boot.EXPOS.

In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R., and Paulino, C.D. (eds.), New


Applied Statistics, Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies, Springer-


http://www.springer.com/series/10107


















82

Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, pp. 249- 256.

http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-05323-3/page/2

6. Dias, S., Valeska, Andreozzi and Martins, M. (2014). Hierarchical Normal

Mixtures Model to Analyse HIV/AIDS LOS. In Pacheco, A., Santos, R.,

Oliveira, M.R., and Paulino, C.D. (eds.), New Advances in Statistical

Modeling and Application. Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics,

Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies, Springer-Verlag, Berlin and

Heidelberg, pp. 199- 227. http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-

05323-3/page/2

7. Gomes, M.I. (2014). Resampling Methodologies in the Field of Statistics of

Univariate Extremes. In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R., and Paulino,

C.D. (eds.), New Advances in Statistical Modeling and Application. Studies in




8. Gomes, M.I. and Stehlík, M. (2014). The latest advances on the Hill estimator

and its modifications. In Akritas, M., Lahiri, S.N. and Politis, D. (eds.), Topics

in NonParametric Statistics, Springer Proceedings in Mathematics and

Statistics, Vol. 74, Springer-Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, 323-334.


9. Gouveia-Reis, D., Lopes, L.G., Mendonça, S. (2014). Application of the

theory of extremes to the study of precipitation in Madeira Island: Statistical

choice of extreme domains of attraction. In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira,





10. Henriques-Rodrigues, L. and Gomes, M.I. (2014). Peaks over random

threshold best linear unbiased estimation of the extreme value index, In

Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R., and Paulino, C.D. (eds.), New


Applied Statistics, Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies, Springer-

Verlag, Berlin and Heidelberg, pp. 145-153.


11. Martins, J., Santos, R. e Sousa, R. (2014). Testing the Maximum by the

Mean in Quantitative Group Tests, In Pacheco, A., Santos, R., Oliveira, M.R.,


Application. Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Selected Papers of


























83

12. Natário, I., Oliveira, M.M., Marques, S. (2014). Using INLA to Estimate a

Highly Dimensional Spatial Model for Forest Fires in Portugal. In New

Advances in Statistical Modeling and Applications - Studies in Theoretical and

Applied Statistics. Editors: Pacheco A., Santos R., Oliveira R., Paulino C.D.


Heidelberg, pp. 239-247. http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-319-

05323-3/page/2

13. Rocha, J.L., Aleixo, S.M. and Caneco, A., (2014) Chaotic Dynamics and

Synchronization of von Bertalanffy’s Growth Models, In Modeling,

Dynamics, Optimization and Bioeconomics II, Bourguignon, J. P., Jelstch, R.,

Pinto, A. A. and Viana, M. (Eds): Springer Proceedings inMathematics,

Springer-Verlag. Berlin Heidelberg, Vol. 2, Chap. 30, 515-539.

14. Rosado, F. (2014). Outliers: the Strength of Minors. In Pacheco, A., Santos,

R., Oliveira, M.R., and Paulino, C.D. (eds.), New Advances in Statistical

Modeling and Applications. Studies in Theoretical and Applied Statistics,


Heidelberg, pp. 17-27. http://link.springer.com/book/10.1007%2F978-3-319-

05323-3

BOOKS (EDITOR) INTERNATIONAL

1. Oliveira, T.A., Gomes, M.I., Grilo, L., Oliveira, A. and Baptista, J. (2014).

Abstracts Book: 8th Workshop on Statistics, Mathematics and Computation.

ISCEE editions, Santiago, ISBN: 978-972-9473-78-4. Depósito Legal Nº:

372503/14. https://sites.google.com/site/wsmc2014cv/book-of-abstracts

2. Oliveira, T.A., Bibler, K.E, Oliveira, A. and Jäger, B. (2014). Statistical and

Biometrical Challenges, Theory and Applications, Biometrie und

Medizinische Informatik – Greifswalder Seminarberichte, Shaker-Verlag.

ISBN: 978-3-8440-2680-1

http://www.shaker.de/de/content/catalogue/index.asp?lang=de&ID=8&ISBN=

978-3-8440-2680-1&search=yes

3. Pacheco, A., Oliveira, R., Santos, R. and Paulino, C.D., eds. (2014). New

Advances in Statistical Modelling and Applications. Studies in Theoretical and

Applied Statistics - Selected Papers of the Statistical Societies, Springer, 285

pages.

http://www.springer.com/statistics/statistical+theory+and+methods/book/978-

3-319-05322-6

PUBLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL









http://www.shaker.de/de/content/catalogue/index.asp?lang=de&ID=8&ISBN=978-3-8440-2680-1&search=yes

http://www.shaker.de/de/content/catalogue/index.asp?lang=de&ID=8&ISBN=978-3-8440-2680-1&search=yes




84

1. Abreu D., Cabral M.S., Ribeiro F. (2014). Factors associated with longer

delays in reperfusion in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, IJC

Heart & Vessels 4, 97-101. http://www.ijcha-journal.com/article/S2214-

7632%2814%2900046-7/fulltext

2. Agudelo-Romero, P., Ali, K., Choi, Y.H., Sousa, L., Verpoorte, R., Tiburcio,

A.F. and Fortes, A.M. (2014). Perturbation of polyamine catabolism affects

grape ripening of V. vinifera cv. Trincadeira. Plant Physiology and

Biochemistry 74, 141-155.


3. Alonso, A. M., de Zea Bermudez, P. and Scotto, M.G. (2014). Comparing

Generalized Pareto models fitted to extreme observations: an application to

the largest temperatures in Spain. Stochastic Environmental Research and

Risk Assessment, 28:5, 1221-1233.


4. Araújo-Martins, J., Carreiro-Martins, P., Viegas, J., Aelenei, D., Cano, M.M.,


Environment and Health in Children Day Care Centres (ENVIRH) – Study

rationale and protocol. Revista Portuguesa de Pneumologia, Volume 20 Issue

6 Page 311-23. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24746462

5. Brilhante, Maria Fátima, Gomes, M. Ivette and Pestana, Dinis (2014).

Extensions of the Verhulst Model, Order Statistics and Products of

Independent Unifrom Random Variables. Chaotic Modeling and Simulation

Journal, Issue 4, Page 315-322.

http://www.cmsim.eu/papers_pdf/october_2014_papers/1_CMSIM_Journal_

2014_Brilhante_etal_etal_4_315-322.pdf

6. Caeiro, F., Gomes, M.I. and Vandewalle, B. (2014). Semi-Parametric

Probability-Weighted Moments Estimation Revisited. Methodology &

Computing in Applied Probability 16:1, pp.1-29.


7. Carreiro-Martins, P., Viegas, J., Papoila, A.L., Aelenei, D., Caires,

I., Araújo-Martins, J., Gaspar-Marques, J., Cano, M.M., Mendes,

A.S., Virella, D., Rosado-Pinto, J., Leiria-Pinto, P., Annesi-Maesano,

I., Neuparth, N. (2014). CO(2) concentration in day care centres is related to

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4. Caneco, A. and Rocha, J.L., (2014) Synchronization and Information

Transmission in Networks, In Proceedings of the ECIT 2012, W. Jarczyk, et

al. (Eds), EDP Sciences, ESAIM: Proceedings and Surveys, vol. 46, pp. 111-

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6. Cunha, A. G., Oliveira, T.A., Pires, P.C. (2014). Statistical Modelling: study

of cardiovascular profile of asymptomatic adults, from Benguela. In Teresa

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8. Figueiredo, A. and Figueiredo, F. (2014). Monitoring the covariance matrix

of a multivariate skew normal distribution. In C.H. Skiadas (Ed.), 3rd SMTDA

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multivariate normal process using STATIS. In Gilli, M., Gonzalez-Rodriguez,

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10. Figueiredo, F., Figueiredo, A. and Gomes, M.I. (2014). Comparison of

sampling plans by variables using bootstrap and Monte Carlo simulations.

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Engineering 2014, AIP Conference Proceedings 1618, pp. 535-538.


11. Figueiredo, F. and Gomes, M.I. (2014). Resampling methodologies in Phase

I control charts. In C.H. Skiadas (Ed.), 3rd SMTDA Conference Proceedings,

pp. 243-250. 2014 ISAST Editions. http://www.smtda.net/images/1_A-

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12. Figueiredo, F., Gomes, M.I. and Figueiredo, A. (2014). Monitoring the shape

parameter of a Weibull distribution. In Gilli, M., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, G. and


Statistical Institute/International Association for Statistical Computing, ISBN

978-2-8399-1347-8, pp. 395-402.


13. Gomes, M.I. and Caeiro, F. (2014). Efficiency of partially reduced-bias mean-

of-order-p versus minimum-variance reduced-bias extreme value index

estimation. In Gilli, M., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, G. and Nieto-Reyes, A. (eds.).

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14. Gonçalves, M.H. and Cabral, M.S. (2014). Incomplete longitudinal binary

responses in matginal model” Proceedings of COMPSTAT 2014, The


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15. Leal, C., Oliveira, T.A. and Oliveira, A. (2014). On Response Surface

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16. Martins, J.P., Felgueiras M., Santos, R. (2014). Maximum Likelihood

Estimation in Pooled Sample Tests. International Conference of

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17. Monteiro, A., Juan, A.A., Oliveira, T.A (2014). Experimental Design as Tool

on Adjusting the Parameters of Metaheuristics. In Teresa Oliveira, Karl-Ernst

Bibler, Amílcar Oliveira and Bernd Jäger (eds.), Statistical and Biometrical

Challenges Theory and Applications, Biometrie und Medizinische Informatik –

Greifswalder Seminarberichte, Shaker-Verlag, 23:259-279.


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18. Neves, M.M. and Cordeiro, C. (2014). Statistical modelling in time series

extremes: an overview and new steps''. In Gilli, M., Gonzalez-Rodriguez, G.



Computing, ISBN 978-2-8399-1347-8, pp 569-576.


19. Neves, M.M. and Cordeiro, C. (2014). "Statistical modelling in time series

extremes.'' In Oliveira, T., Biebler K-E., Oliveira, A. and Jager, B.(eds.),

Statistical and Biometrical Challenges: Theory and Applications, Shaker-

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20. Penalva, H., Nunes, S. and Neves, M.M. (2014). Statistical Modeling and

Inference in Extremes: Applications with R. In Oliveira, T., Biebler K-E.,

Oliveira, A. and Jager, B.(eds.), Statistical and Biometrical Challenges:

Theory and Applications, Shaker-Verlag, Aachen, Biometrie und

Medizinische Informatik – Greifswalder Seminarberichte 23: 281-309.


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21. Pestana, P., & Reiss, J. (2014, January). Intelligent Audio Production

Strategies Informed by Best Practices. In Audio Engineering Society

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Panning Technique. In Proceedings of the 17th

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23. Polidoro, M. J., Magalhães, F. J. and Turkman, M. A. A. (2014). Classical

and Bayesian Goodness-of-fit Tests for the Exponential Model: A

Comparative Study. Computational Science and Its Applications – ICCSA.

Proceedings, Part III. Editors: B. Murgante et al. (Eds.): LNCS 8581, pp. 483–

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24. Prata Gomes, D. and Neves M.M. (2014). Exploring R for modeling spatial

extreme precipitation data. International Conference of Computational

Methods in Sciences and Engineering 2014, AIP Conference Proceedings

1618, pp. 547-550.


25. Ramos, M.R and Cordeiro, C. (2014). Trend tests: a tendency to resampling.

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(ITISE 2014), Ignacio Rojas Ruiz and Gonzalo Ruiz Garcia (Eds). ISBN 978-

84-15814-97-9, Vol.1, pp. 322-328. http://itise.ugr.es/proceedings

26. Santos, R. (2014). O Problema da Definição de Probabilidade Contínua e o

Conceito Ponto Imagem de Pacheco d’Amorim. In Nobre, S., Bertato, F. e

Saraiva, L. (Eds.): Anais/Actas do 6º Encontro Luso-Brasileiro de História da

Matemática, Sociedade Brasileira de História da Matemática, pp. 511-534.

ISBN 978-85-89097-67-3 http://www.rbhm.org.br/EBOOK-6oLuso-Bras.htm

27. Silva Coelho, J., Branco, F., Oliveira, T.A., Leiva, V. (2014): Distribution

View: a tool to write and simulate distributions. Biometrie und Medizinische



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28. Silva-Fortes, C., Freitas, A., Roque, S. and Sousa, L. (2014). Arrow Plot

and CA Maps on Microarray Preprocessing . 2014 14th International

Conference on Computational Science and Its Applications, pp:229-232. DOI

10.1109/ICCSA.2014.52.

http://140.98.202.196/xpl/articleDetails.jsp?tp=&arnumber=6976694&search

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29. Simões, Paula, Shrubsall, Sílvia, Natário, Isabel: (2014) A Spatial

Econometrics Analysis for Road Accidents in Lisbon. In Computational

Science and Its Applications – ICCSA 2014. Editors: Murgante B., Misra S.,

Rocha A.M.A.C., Torre C., Rocha J.G., Falcão M., Taniar D., Apduhan B.O.,

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http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-09150-1_20.

Published before 31 March 2015

1. Brilhante, M.F., Gomes, M.I. and Pestana, D. (2015). Further Results on

Order Statistics and Products of Functions of Independent Generalized Beta

Random Variables. In T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios, Ch. Tsitouras and Z.

Anastassi (eds.), Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics ICNAAM

2014, AIP Conferecence Proceedings, American Institute of Physics, 540002:


2. Brilhante, M.F., Pestana. D., Semblano, P., and Sequeira, F. (2014+). On

the Proportion of Non Uniform Reported p-Values. In T. E. Simos, G.


Applied Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conferecence Proceedings,

American Institute of Physics.


3. Costa, M. T., Carolino, E. and Oliveira, T.A. (2015). Multivariate control

charts: An application on monitoring the quality parameters of drinking water.

In T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios, Ch. Tsitouras and Z. Anastassi (eds.), Numerical

Analysis and Applied Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conference

Proceedings 1648, American Institute of Physics, 84006:


4. Ferreira, M.C., Pereira, J.A. and Oliveira, A. (2015). Acquisition of

Competencies in Mathematics through Games. In T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios,


Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conference Proceedings 1648, American



5. Oliveira, T.A., Leal, C. and Oliveira, A. (2015). Stochastic Response Surface

Methodology: A Study in the Human Health Area. In T. E. Simos, G.





6. Oliveira, T.A. (2015). Preface of the “Symposium on statistical modelling

and biometrical applications”. In T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios, Ch. Tsitouras and

Z. Anastassi (eds.), Numerical Analysis and Applied Mathematics ICNAAM

2014, AIP Conference Proceedings, American Institute of Physics, 840001:


7. Oliveira, T.A. and Francisco, C. (2015). BIBD, Hadamard matrices and new

technological devices: Applications to QR codes. In T. E. Simos, G.


Applied Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conference Proceedings,

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http://scitation.aip.org/search?value1=Teresa+A.+Oliveira&option1=author&option912=resultCategory&value912=ResearchPublicationContent

http://scitation.aip.org/search?value1=Carla+Francisco&option1=author&option912=resultCategory&value912=ResearchPublicationContent




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8. Oliveira, A., Oliveira, T.A. and Seijas-Macias, A. (2015). Distribution

Function for the ratio of Two Normal Random Variables. In T. E. Simos, G.





9. Oliveira, T.A., Oliveira, A., Caroço, A., Batista, M.J., Oliveira, M.M. and

Borges, J. (2015). Linear Regression on the characterization of elements of

natural origin and possible implications in the use of ground. In T. E. Simos,





10. Pereira J.A., Oliveira T.A., Costa A. and Mendes, L. (2015). Modulation of

dental root surface area through GLMs – Clinical Applications In T. E. Simos,





11. Prata Gomes, D. and Neves, M.M. (2015). Computer intensive methods for

improving the extremal index estimation. In T. E. Simos, G. Psihoyios, Ch.

Tsitouras and Z. Anastassi (eds.), Numerical Analysis and Applied

Mathematics ICNAAM 2014, AIP Conferecence Proceedings 1648, American



BOOKS NATIONAL

1. Pereira, C.P. (2014). Medicina Dentária Forense: “As Potencialidades e os

Limites das Ciências Forenses na Investigação Criminal Medicina Dentária

Forense. Conferência Incluída no Ciclo de Conferências: Crime e Violência,

Academia das Ciências de Lisboa, Novembro e Dezembro de 2012”.

Academia das Ciências de Lisboa, Lisboa. 2014. E-book, com ISBN: 978-

972-623-170-7 http://www.acad-ciencias.pt/wordpress/catalogo-das-

publicacoes/?SingleProduct=341

2. Tavares, D., Antunes, C., Coelho, A., Flores, B., Reis, B., Fortes, Carina,

Medeiros, N., Borrego, R. (2014). Saúde e Estilos de Vida no Concelho de

Loures (2009). Coleção Estudos e Reflexões. Editora mediaXXI. ISBN: 978-

989-98774-0-5.

http://repositorio.ipl.pt/bitstream/10400.21/3759/1/Sa%C3%BAde%20e%20es

tilos%20de%20vida%20no%20concelho%20de%20Loures.pdf






http://www.acad-ciencias.pt/wordpress/catalogo-das-publicacoes/?SingleProduct=341

http://www.acad-ciencias.pt/wordpress/catalogo-das-publicacoes/?SingleProduct=341




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CHAPTERS OF BOOKS NATIONAL

1. Pereira, C.P. (2014). Medicina Dentária Forense: Áreas de Intervenção. In.

Enfermagem Forense. Volume 1 Lisboa: Lidel, 2014. ISBN 9789727579853.

http://www.almedina.net/catalog/product_info.php?products_id=19199

2. Pereira, C.P. (2014). Marcas de mordedura: A importância do

reconhecimento e da documentação fotográfica forense do vestígio físico. In.

Enfermagem Forense. Albino Gomes, Volume 2 Lisboa: Lidel, 2014. ISBN

9789897520600. http://lideleditora.blogspot.pt/2014/05/livro-do-dia-

enfermagem-forense-volume-2.html

BOOKS (EDITOR) NATIONAL

1. Pereira, I., Freitas, A., Scotto, M., Silva, M.E. e Paulino, C.D., eds. (2014).

Estatística: A Ciência da Incerteza. Edições SPE, Lisboa.

PUBLICATIONS NATIONAL

1. Araújo-Martins, J., Carreiro-Martins, P., Viegas, J., Aelenei, D., Cano, M.M.,


Environment and Health in Children Day Care Centres (ENVIRH) – Study

rationale and protocol. Revista Portuguesa de Pneumologia, 20 (6):311-23.


2. Martins, P., Belo, J., Marques, J., Papoila, A.L., Caires, I., Araújo-Martins, J.,

Pedro, C., Rosado-Pinto, J., Virella, D., Leiria-Pinto, P., Neuparth, N. (2014).

Alergia a Medicamentos Reportada em Crianças que Frequentam Infantários.

Acta Médica Portuguesa, 27 (4), 444-449.


3. Nóbrega, S., Andrade, M., Heleno, B., Alves, M., Papoila, A., Sassetti, L. and

Virella, D. (2014). Compliance with ESPGHAN position on complementary

feeding in a multicultural European community. Does ethnicity matter?

Portuguese Journal of Gastroenterology, 21, 213-240.

http://www.elsevier.pt/en/revistas/ge-jornal-portugues-gastrenterologia-

347/artigo/compliance-with-espghan-position-on-complementary-feeding-in-

90370874

4. Pereira, C.P. (2014) “The medico-legal and criminalistics importance of

saliva:Update of its application in forensic sciences”. Revista Portuguesa de

Estomatologia, Medicina Dentária e Cirurgia Maxilofacial, 55:3-6.

http://www.elsevier.pt/en/revistas/revista-portuguesa-estomatologia-medicina-

dentaria-e-cirurgia-maxilofacial-330/artigo-resumo/the-medico-legal-and-

criminalistics-importance-of-saliva-update-90278568

http://www.almedina.net/catalog/product_info.php?products_id=19199

http://lideleditora.blogspot.pt/2014/05/livro-do-dia-enfermagem-forense-volume-2.html

http://lideleditora.blogspot.pt/2014/05/livro-do-dia-enfermagem-forense-volume-2.html






http://www.elsevier.pt/en/revistas/revista-portuguesa-estomatologia-medicina-dentaria-e-cirurgia-maxilofacial-330/artigo-resumo/the-medico-legal-and-criminalistics-importance-of-saliva-update-90278568




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5. Rial, T., Sousa, L., García, E., Pinsach, P. (2014). Efectos agudos de una

sesión de técnicas hipopresivas en diferentes parámetros corporales.

Cuestiones de Fisioterapia – Revista Universitária de Informacíon e

Investigacíon en Fisioterapia, 43 (1): 13-21. (ISSN 1135-8599)


6. Santos, P., Santos, J. C., Palmela Pereira, C. (2014) “Assessment of

Postraumatic Orofacial Damage Based On Portuguese Civil, Criminal And

Labor Laws”. Revista de Criminologia e Ciências Penitenciárias 2014, 4(3):

online 1 de setembro de 2014. ISSN: 2238-1678.

http://www.procrim.org/revista/index.php/COPEN

EDITIONS NATIONAL

1. Rosado, F. (2014). Edição do Boletim SPE, Primavera 2014, (Um) Ano

Internacional da Estatística. Edições SPE. ISSN: 1646-5903. Depósito Legal:

249102/06 (68 pages).

http://www.spestatistica.pt/attachments/article/101/Boletim%20SPE%20prima

vera%202014.pdf

2. Rosado, F. (2014). Edição do Boletim SPE, Outono 2014, Estatística no

Ensino Básico e Secundário. Edições SPE. ISSN: 1646-5903. Depósito Legal:

249102/06 (48 pages).

http://www.spestatistica.pt/attachments/article/101/Boletim%20SPE%20outon

o%202014.pdf

PROCEEDINGS NATIONAL

1. Brilhante, M.F., and Pestana, D. (2014). Meta-Análise e Construção do

Conhecimento. Atas do II Congresso de Ciência e Desenvolvimento dos

Açores & VII Congresso de Gestão e Conservação da Natureza, Novos

Sonhos para uma Realidade Pós-Crise, Terceira, 35-42.

2. Cadima, J. (2014). Distâncias de Mahalanobis, variáveis originais e

componentes principais, in: Pereira, I., Freitas, A., Scotto, M., Silva, M. E.,

Paulino, C. D. (editores), Estatística: a Ciência da Incerteza, Atas do XXI

Congresso Anual da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Edições SPE,

páginas 155-167, (ISBN: 978-972-8890-35-3).

3. Dias, A. e Santos, R. (2014). Materiais para o uso da simulação no ensino de

probabilidades, Atas da Conferência Internacional de Investigação, Práticas e

Contextos em Educação, p. 409.

4. Figueiredo, A. and Figueiredo, F. (2014). Metodologia STATIS em Controlo

Estatístico da Qualidade. Em livro de resumos alargados das XXI Jornadas de

Classificação e Análise de Dados, JOCLAD 2014, pp. 93-96.



http://www.procrim.org/revista/index.php/COPEN







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5. Gomes, M.I., Figueiredo, F. and Figueiredo, A. (2014). Controlo Estatístico

da Qualidade em Indústria e Serviços, In Tomaz Dentinho (ed.), Livro de Atas

do II Congresso de Ciência e Desenvolvimento dos Açores—Novos Sonhos

para uma Realidade pós-crise e VII Congresso de Gestão e Conservação da

Natureza, Universidade dos Açores, Angra do Heroísmo, ISBN 978-989-

98567-1-4, pp. 42-49. http://congressoacda2014.weebly.com

6. Gouveia-Reis, D., Lopes, L. G. e Mendonça, S. (2014), Aplicação do método

dos excessos de nível a valores extremos de precipitação na ilha da Madeira,

in: Pereira, I., Freitas, A., Scotto, M., Silva, M. E., Paulino, C. D. (editores),

Estatística: a Ciência da Incerteza, Atas do XXI Congresso Anual da

Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Edições SPE, páginas 43-50, (ISBN

978-972-8890-35-3).

7. Penalva, H. Nunes, Sandra e Neves, M.M. (2014). Estimação paramétrica e

semiparamétrica do índice de cauda utilizando o R ''. Livro de resumos das

XXI Jornadas de Classificação e Análise de Dados, pp. 199-202.


8. Penalva, H., S. Nunes e M. M. Neves, (2014). "Estimação do índice de

valores extremos em ambiente R - as abordagens paramétrica e semi-

paramétrica", In Estatística. A Ciência da Incerteza, in Isabel Pereira,

Adelaide Freitas, Manuel Scotto, M. Eduarda Silva e Carlos Daniel

Paulino,(edts), Estatística: a Ciência da Incerteza Actas do XXI Congresso

Anual da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, SPE, 129-140.

9. Poleto, F.Z., Paulino, C.D., Singer, J. and Molenberghs, G. (2014). “Análise

Bayesiana Semiparamétrica de Resposta Binária com Covariável Contínua

Sujeita a Omissão não Aleatória”. in: Pereira, I., Freitas, A., Scotto, M., Silva,

M. E.,Paulino, C. D. (editores), Estatística: a Ciência da Incerteza, Atas do

XXI Congresso Anual da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Edições SPE,

páginas 105-118, (ISBN: 978-972-8890-35-3).

10. Rocha, M.L., e Pestana, D. (2014). Estatística e Cidadania. In Tomaz

Dentinho (ed.), Livro de Atas do II Congresso de Ciência e Desenvolvimento

dos Açores—Novos Sonhos para uma Realidade pós-crise e VII Congresso de

Gestão e Conservação da Natureza, Universidade dos Açores, Angra do

Heroísmo, ISBN 978-989-98567-1-4, pp. 31-35.

11. Sepúlveda, N., Manjurano, A., Drakeley, C., Clark, T.G. (2014+). On the

Protection of alpha thalassaemia from Malaria Infection in Northeast

Tanzania. In : Pereira, I., Freitas, A., Scotto, M., Silva, M. E.,Paulino, C. D.

(editores), Estatística: a Ciência da Incerteza, Atas do XXI Congresso Anual

da Sociedade Portuguesa de Estatística, Edições SPE, páginas 223-233,

(ISBN:978-972 8890-35-3).

http://congressoacda2014.weebly.com/


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