employment projections through the.pdf

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Monthly Labor Review April 2012 13

Employment Projections

Dixie SommersandTeresa L. Morisi S

tudents and career changers want toknow what preparation is needed orentry into various careers or, alternative-

ly, what types o career opportunities may beavailable or a given level o preparation. Tecounselors, teachers, parents, and others whoassist the students also need this inormation.

o better meet this need, the Bureau o LaborStatistics (BLS) has introduced a new set oeducation and training categories to depict thepreparation that individuals need to enter and

to become competent in specifc occupations.While these categories were developed speci-ically or users interested in career explorationand guidance, other data users are interested inthis inormation as well. o help them makedecisions on investments and human resourceplanning, policy makers, businesses, and others

want to know what the expected demand maybe or workers with various levels o educationattainment and other preparation. While notdirectly depicting demand by education attain-ment, the BLS education and training catego-

ries provide insight into the expected demand.Tis article examines the 20102020 employ-

ment projections through the lens o the neweducation and training categories. Te resultsindicate, or example, that the astest projectedemployment growth, 21.7 percent over the de-cade, is among occupations with a masters de-gree as the typical entry-level education need-ed, while the largest number o projected new

jobs, 7.6 million, is among occupations with a

Employment projections through thelens of education and training

Te new BLSeducation and training categories provide information on thetypical path to enter and how to become competent in occupations; they notonly are a useful resource for career exploration but also provide insight intothe expected demand for workers by education level and other types of career

preparation

high school or equivalent as the typical entry-level needed.Tis article begins by discussing what the new

categories are, whyBLS changed rom the previ-ous categories, and howBLS assigned the newcategories. Next, it examines how the assign-ments are distributed across major occupationgroups and across the intersections o the threedimensions o the new system. Ten summaryresults are presented using the 20102020 em-ployment projections, as well as wage inorma-

tion rom the Occupational Employment Sta-tistics program. In addition, the article discussesthe projections or the entry-level educationcategories, exploring the results by the on-the-

job training (OJ) and related work experiencedimensions.

In this exercise, BLS presents its approach toa problem that labor market analysts across theglobe ace. All analysts need a way to general-ize and summarize employment trends by edu-cation and other preparationa way that re-quires developing some construct to represent

the complexities o how labor markets intersectwith education and other preparation or work.Te article concludes with a brie review o howother analysts, including those in Canada andEurope, are addressing this problem.

What the new categories are

Te path for entry and competency. Some occu-pations have several paths by which a prospec-tive worker can enter, while others have a single

Dixie Sommersis AssistantCommissioner andTeresa L. Morisiis Branch Chiein the Divisionof OccupationalOutlook, Ofceof OccupationalStatistics andEmploymentProjections, Bureau oLabor Statistics. Email:[email protected] and [email protected].
mailto:sommers.dixie%40bls.gov?subject=April%202012%20MLR%20articlemailto:sommers.dixie%40bls.gov?subject=April%202012%20MLR%20articlemailto:morisi.teri%40bls.gov?subject=April%202012%20MLR%20articlemailto:morisi.teri%40bls.gov?subject=April%202012%20MLR%20articlemailto:morisi.teri%40bls.gov?subject=April%202012%20MLR%20articlemailto:morisi.teri%40bls.gov?subject=April%202012%20MLR%20articlemailto:sommers.dixie%40bls.gov?subject=April%202012%20MLR%20articlemailto:sommers.dixie%40bls.gov?subject=April%202012%20MLR%20article


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14 Monthly Labor Review April 2012

distinct path. An important part o the path is the edu-cation that one needs to enter the occupation. For someoccupations, a certain level o education is universally re-quired, while or others, it is not as clear-cut. Considertwo legal occupations: lawyers and paralegals. Prospective

lawyers need to graduate rom law school ater complet-ing a bachelors degree. Paralegals, however, can enter theoccupation with one o three ormal education levelsapostsecondary nondegree award, an associates degree, ora bachelors degree.Another part o the path is whether prior work experi-

ence is needed or entry. Such work experience is relatedto the current occupation a worker is entering, rather thangeneral work experience through which the individualmay develop more general skills or work habits. Many othe occupations with a work experience requirement arerst-line supervisors or managers who need to have expe-rience in the eld that they are supervising or managing.Entrants to some nonmanagerial occupations may alsoneed related work experience.

For some occupations, education can be substituted orwork experience and vice versa. An example is the occu-pation ches and head cooks. A prospective che or headcook could enter the occupation with a degree rom a cu-linary school and no prior work experience, or in lieu oormal education, he or she could enter with years o workexperience as a lower-level cook.

OJ is also an important part o the path. Such training

is needed in many occupations or a person to becomecompetent at perorming the occupation. o be com-petent means that someone is qualied to perorm theoccupation independently. OJ is normally attained aterone is employed in an occupation. It can be an appren-ticeship, which is a ormal relationship between a workerand a sponsor. Apprenticeships are most common in con-struction occupations, such as electricians, stonemasons,or carpenters. In other occupations, entrants need to com-plete an internship or residency. Each is ound mainly inteaching and medical occupations and may be requiredor state licensure or certication. In addition, in some oc-

cupations, workers need less ormal types o OJ to be-come competent.

BLS sought the best way to depict these requirementsand devised the new education and training categoriesthat are being used or the rst time with the projectionso employment rom 2010 to 2020. Te new categoriesinclude assignments in three dierent dimensions thatmake up a path: (1) typical education needed or entry, (2)

work experience in a related occupation, and (3) typicalOJ needed to attain competency.1 Te BLS data show the

projected demand or occupations, and the categories in-dicate the education and training characteristics or occu-pations in the base year o 2010. Te data presented in thisarticle summarize the projected employment trends romthe 20102020 National Employment Matrix by category

and by path. Tus, the data represent the trend or occupa-tions assigned to each category or path. Te data do notspecically indicate the demand or workers by educationattainment, such as demand or college graduates, nor dothey indicate or project the educational attainment o the

workorce.

Te education and training assignments represent a typi-cal path. Te assignments in the education and trainingsystem are given to each o the 749 detailed occupationsor which BLS publishes employment projections. Te as-signments or entry-level education, work experience in

a related occupation, and OJ go together, in that theyrepresent the typical path to enter an occupation and be-come competent at perorming it. BLS analysts decide thetypical path ater reviewing and analyzing various datasources and qualitative inormation, as described in thesection on how the categories were assigned (page 16).ypical entry-level education and work experience in

a related occupation are preemployment qualications,while typical OJ usually occurs ater one is employed.Although some occupations may have more than onepath or entry, only one path is assigned in the system.

Te typical path holds even or those occupations, suchas the ches and head cooks example mentioned earlier,in which ormal education and work experience may besubstituted or each other. I an occupation has multiplepaths or entry, they are discussed in the narratives in theOccupational Outlook Handbook.

Preemployment requirements: education and work experience.Te rst category in the path is the typical education levelneeded or one to enter an occupation. Te assignmentsinclude ve postsecondary levels (doctoral or proessionaldegree, masters degree, bachelors degree, associates de-

gree, and postsecondary nondegree award). Other assign-ments are some college, no degree; high school diplomaor equivalent; and less than high school.2 Note that theeducation level assigned to an occupation is the typicallevel most workers need to enter. (BLS economists arrivedat the typical level by analyzing data and other research;see the section on page 16 on how the categories were as-signed or more inormation.) In the paralegals examplementioned earlier, several education levels are possible orentry. Te education assignment or paralegals is associ-
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ates degree, because BLS economists determined it to bethe typical education needed or entry. Lawyers are as-signed doctoral or proessional degree.Te second preemployment category is work experi-

ence in a related occupation. Tis metric captures work

experience that employers commonly consider necessaryor commonly accept as a substitute or more ormal typeso training or education. Te work experience is occu-pation specic; that is, it is in a related occupation thatprovides experience related to the current occupation thata worker is entering and can be transerred to another

job in the same occupation. Specic work experience isdistinct rom general work experience, through which theindividual may develop more general skills or work hab-its. Te assignments are a measure o time (more than 5

years, 15 years, less than 1 year, or none). As just noted,many occupations or which work experience in a relatedoccupation is needed are rst-line supervisors and man-agers, who need experience in the occupations they willsupervise. For example, architectural and engineeringmanagers typically have more than 5 years work experi-ence in architectural or engineering occupations beorebecoming managers. Some nonmanagement occupationsrequire work experience in a related occupation; real es-tate brokers, or example, typically need between 1 and3 years o work experience as a licensed real estate agent.

Postemployment requirement: on-the-job training. Oc-

cupations also receive an assignment that represents thetypical OJ needed or a worker to attain competencyin the occupation. Tis training is occupation specic; itis not job specic. Occupation-specic training can betranserred to another job in the same occupation. Forexample, the training an electrician receives through anapprenticeship can be transerred to another electrician

job. Internship-residency is another assignment or thiscategory, although it is not strictly a postemployment re-quirement but tends to come beore one is employed. Forexample, ater completing their doctorate program, po-diatrists must complete a residency program that lasts 3

years. In most states, the residency is required beore apodiatrist can be licensed to practice.

Other assignments or this category include long-term OJ (more than 1 year), moderate-term OJ (112months), short-term OJ (1 month or less), and none. Forexample, real estate sales agents typically enter the oc-cupation with a high school diploma and learn their oc-cupation through long-term OJ. Insurance underwritersare assigned moderate-term OJ in the systemeventhough they typically need a bachelors degree or entry,

they receive OJ as a trainee supervised by a senior under-writer. A ast-ood cook is an example o an occupation inwhich one undergoes short-term OJ.

Why BLS developed the new categories

BLS used an earlier education and training category sys-tem rom 1995 (with the publication o 19942005 pro-

jections) through the 2009 publication o the 20082018projections.3 Te earlier system assigned 1 o 11 categoriesto each occupation that represented the most signicantsource o education or training. Te 11 categories com-bined education, work experience, and OJ, and BLS ana-lysts could choose only one category to assign to an oc-cupation. Te previous categories included postsecondaryeducation levels ranging rom rst proessional degree topostsecondary vocational award; two categories with work

experiencebachelors or higher degree, plus work expe-rience and work experience in a related occupation; andthree OJ categories denoting long-term, moderate-term,and short-term OJ.Te previous system was replaced or a number o rea-

sons. One is that since each occupation received just a sin-gle assignment to cover education, work experience, andtraining, it did not provide enough inormation on thepath that a person typically needs to ollow to enter an oc-cupation and become competent at perorming it. Exceptor the bachelors or higher degree plus work experienceitem, the system did not show whether an occupationneeded combinations o education, work experience, andtraining (or example, postsecondary education and someperiod oOJ), since only one assignment could be made.Only postsecondary education levels were included; noassignments could be made or the high school level andbelow. In addition, the ormer categories could be misin-terpreted. For example, some users assumed that all oc-cupations assigned an OJ category were high school orless than high school occupations, although this was notthe case. Another drawback o the system was that theterm most signifcant sourcewas not dened.

How the new categories were developed

Te new education and training system is the result owork byBLS economists, with input rom data users. BLSsta reviewed the drawbacks o the prior system and de-

veloped ways to better represent the typical path o en-try and competency. wo rounds o public comment oc-curred, in November 2008 and September 2010. Te lat-ter round included an experimental dataset o about 100


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occupations. Te BLS received many helpul commentsrom the public and considered these when devising thenal system.

BLS originally proposed adding a licensing category.However, urther testing and renement o the licensing

denition revealed some problems, such as how to captureoccupations in which a subset requires licensure either inall states or some states. An additional issue is that statesalso regulate occupations through less-restrictive orms,known as registration and statutory certication, in whicha state grants title protection to an individual with acertication. Tese orms o regulation are sometimes re-erred to as licenses. BLS ound this inormation provedtoo complex to represent accurately, without extensive ad-ditional research.

BLS also studied certication as a possible category toinclude in the classication system. Certication does nott into the overall concept o the system, however, whichis to provide inormation on what is needed to enter andto attain competency in an occupation. Certication isnormally voluntary and is a recognition that a nongov-ernmental body provides. It can demonstrate competencein occupation-specic skills, job-specic skills, or ad-

vanced practice skills. Tereore, certication is generallyobtained or a person to advance within an occupation,either to a higher level or to move to a specialized area.In addition, the term certifcation is oten conused withacademic certicates received rom postsecondary institu-

tions. For these reasons, certication is not included inthe education and training classication system. Certi-cation, however, is discussed in the narratives o occupa-tional proles in the Occupational Outlook Handbook i it isimportant or the occupation.

BLS published the nal categories on the BLS websitein all 2011, ollowed by the occupational assignments inDecember 2011. Te 20102020 employment projectionsreleased on February 1, 2012, were the rst to incorporatethe new system.

Users should not compare results rom the new educa-tion and training categories with the previous system. Te

major dierence is that the concepts are not the same.Te previous system assigned a single category that rep-resented the most signicant source o education ortraining. Te concepts or the new system are more clearlydened. Te education assignment represents the typicalentry-level education, and the assignment in the currentsystem could be dierent rom what was assigned in thepast. In addition, occupations could not receive educationassignments below the postsecondary level in the previoussystem. Te 20102020 projections also are the rst to in-

corporate the 2010 Standard Occupational Classication(SOC) system, and some occupations are new and will nothave prior assignments.

How the categories were assigned

BLS economists assigned occupations to categories on thebasis o analyses o qualitative and quantitative inorma-tion. Sources o quantitative data included educationalattainment data rom the American Community Sur-

vey (ACS) and the Occupational Inormation Network(O*NE).

American Community Survey data. Te Census BureausACS collects data on educational attainment, as well as em-ployment by occupation. Te BLS published educationalattainment data on its website that are based on the ACS

microdata les or 2005 through 2009.4Tese data showthe percent distribution o workers 25 years and older em-ployed in an occupation by their highest level o educationattained.5 Te data are particularly useul in analyzing oc-cupations with multiple entry-level education possibilities.

Like any sample survey, the ACS is a household sam-ple survey and is subject to response and coding error, as

well as sampling error. Te ACS data thereore must becareully evaluated. In addition, although the Census Bu-reaus occupational classication system also is based onthe SOC, it does not provide the same level o detail asthe BLS shows in the National Employment Matrix. As aresult, some detailed SOC occupations shown in the BLSdata have the same educational attainment data becausethey are combined in the Census Bureaus occupationalclassication system.Tese data show the highest level o educational attain-

ment o individuals working in the occupation. Tus, thedata may show higher or lower educational attainmentthan the assignment given in the classication system ortypical entry education. For example, the ACS data showthat a majority o advertising sa les agents have a bachelorsdegree, but the education category assignment or the oc-

cupation is high school diploma or equivalent, becauseworkers typically enter the occupation with the lowerlevel o education. In other cases, the category assignmentreects a higher level o education than the attainmentdata show. For example, occupational therapists are as-signed to the masters degree category, but more than halhave only a bachelors degree according to the ACS data.

Te entry requirements or occupational therapists havechanged over time, and current entrants typically need amasters degree.
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In some cases, theACS data may show workers with edu-cational attainment much higher than is needed or theiroccupation. In act, the ACS data show that every occupa-tion has some share o workers with a bachelors degree. Forexample, according to theACS data or 2005 through 2009,

among workers 25 years and older, 12.5 percent o waitersand waitresses and 13.0 percent o bank tellers had bach-elors degrees as their highest level o education attainment,although these occupations have education assignments oless than high school and high school diploma in the BLScategory system, respectively.6 Some o these results may beresponse or coding error, or college-educated workers mayin act be in every occupation, even those in which most

workers have less than a high school diploma. Some work-ers choose occupations that do not necessarily mesh withtheir educational attainment. For example, they may haveamily responsibilities that cause them to choose an occu-pation or which they are over qualied because it has ex-ible hours. In addition, college-educated workers may notbe able to nd a job that uses the education they possess,sometimes reerred to as mal-employment, which can bemore likely during recessions.7 Even i workers have theright level o degree, they may also experience mismatchesbetween the eld o their degree and the elds o degreesrequired in the jobs available. In other cases, workers sim-ply choose occupations below their education level becausethey preer them or they may be working in them whilepursuing other options.

When assigning education categories, BLS economistsreviewed ACS 20052009 educational attainment distri-butions or occupations by two age breakouts: ages 18 to29 and 30 and older. For most occupations, the youngerage group was considered to better represent the educa-tion level needed by workers who are entering the occupa-tion; or occupations requiring a doctoral or proessionaldegree, the older cohort was more appropriate given thetime required to attain advanced degrees.

Other resources used to assign categories. BLS economistsalso analyzed data rom the O*NE, a product o the Em-

ployment and raining Administration o the U.S. De-partment o Labor. O*NEs data on education, work ex-perience, and training requirements or occupations comerom a survey o workers in the occupation and o occu-pational experts and analysts. A limitation o the O*NEdata was the small sample sizes or some o the occupa-tions surveyed.

Economists at BLS also used qualitative inormation toassign categories. Tey interviewed persons who wereknowledgable about education and training requirements

or the occupations. Tey obtained inormation rom em-ployers, workers in the occupation, training experts, andrepresentatives o proessional and trade associations andunions, among others. BLS economists also reviewed inor-mation rom regulatory authorities (i they existed or an

occupation) and actual job postings or the occupations.

A summary look at the assignments

Education categories by major occupation group. How arethe education and training categories distributed acrossmajor occupation groups? Te SOC system groups occupa-tions according to the type o work perormed and not ac-cording to education or skill level. Tus, nding a range otypical entry-level education categories within any o the22 SOC major occupation groups is not surprising. Tesedistributions indicate that analysis o occupations by the

education categories is best done at the detailed occupationlevel, rather than at the major group level.

Four major groups had six education categories repre-sented: education, training, and library occupations; health-care practitioners and technical occupations; personal careand service occupations; and transportation and materialmoving occupations.wo major groups with the least dis-persion across education categories had only two categoriesrepresented: building and grounds cleaning and mainte-nance occupations and construction and extraction occupa-tions, in which only the high school diploma and less thanhigh school education categories occurred. (See table 1.)

Conversely, each education category is ound acrossmultiple major occupation groups, with the high schooldiploma or equivalent assignment ound in 20 o the 22major groups (all but computer and mathematical occu-pations and lie, physical, and social science occupations).

Te bachelors degree assignment appears in 15 majorgroups and the associates degree in 13 major groups. Teleast dispersion across major groups is or the doctoral orproessional degree (5 groups), masters degree (6 groups),and some college, no degree (6 groups). (See table 1.)

Multiple dimensions o occupational preparation. An advan-tage o the newBLS education and training categories isthat it helps data users examine paths to entry and com-petence, that is, the intersection o education, related workexperience, and OJ. Educational attainment is an im-portant preparation or entry into many occupations butoten does not tell the whole story. Individuals makingcareer decisions, counselors and others who assist theseindividuals, and those planning and unding workorcedevelopment activities need to understand the training
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and related work experience dimensions in addition toeducational attainment. Te ollowing discussion exam-ines how detailed occupations are distributed across thesemultiple dimensions.While high school completion is the typical entry-

level education in 350 occupations, a high school diplomaalone is not sufcient. Individuals preparing or these oc-cupations can expect to ace additional training require-ments, oten o signicant length. Among the 350 high

school occupations, only 28 do not typically require OJto attain competency. O the occupations with an OJ as-signment, the largest numbers are in the moderate-termOJ category (159 occupations) and in the short-term OJcategory (100 occupations). Another 49 are in the long-term OJ category, and 14 are assigned to the apprentice-ship category. Only one high school occupation has noOJ or related work experience required.8 (See table 2.)

Concerning work experience in a related occupation,

Table 1. Number of occupations assigned to education categories, by major occupation group

Majoroccupation

group

Typical education needed for entry

Total,all

occupa-tions

Doctoralor

profes-sional

degree

Mas-ters

degree

Bachelors

degree

Associ-ates

degree

Postsec-ondary

non-degreeaward

Somecollege,

nodegree

Highschool

diploma

orequiva-

lent

Lessthan

highschool

Numberof edu-cation

cat-egoriesrepre-sented

00 Total, all occupati ons 749 25 29 154 47 42 6 350 96 8

11 Management 33 2 20 2 1 8

13 Business and financialoperations 30 20 1 8 1 4

15 Computer andmathematical 16 1 2 12 1 4

17 A rchitecture andengineering 35 22 12 1 3

19 Life, physical, and socialscience 43 7 9 19 8 4

21 Community and socialservice 17 6 9 2 3

23 Legal 9 3 2 1 1 2 5

25 Education, training, andlibrary 24 1 4 15 1 1 2 6

27 Arts, design, entertain-ment, sports, and media 41 19 1 2 1 18 5

29 Healthcare practitionersand technical 46 13 6 6 11 6 4 6

31 Healthcare support 15 2 4 8 1 4

33 Protective service 22 2 1 19 3

35 Food preparation andserving related 18 1 2 15 3

37 Building and groundscleaning andmaintenance 10 6 4 2

39 Personal care and service 33 1 1 6 1 18 6 6

41 Sales and related 22 3 13 6 3

43 Office and administrativesupport 55 2 2 50 1 4

45 Farming, fishing, andforestry 11 1 7 3 3

47 Construction andextraction 59 39 20 2

49 Installation, maintenance,and repair 51 4 15 31 1 4

51 Production 107 1 2 90 14 4

5 3 Transportation andmaterial moving 52 3 1 1 1 22 24 6

Number of major occupationgroups represented 22 5 6 15 13 12 6 20 12 (1)

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

SOC

1 Data not applicable.


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651 o the 749 occupations typically have no such require-ment or entry. O the 98 occupations with a work expe-rience assignment other than none, 58 are manager orsupervisor occupations in which experience in the type o

work managed or supervised is typically needed or entry

or may be substituted or other entry requirements.9 Telargest numbers o occupations with a related work expe-rience assignment other than none have an entry-leveleducation assignment o bachelors degree (38 occupa-tions) and high school diploma or equivalent (42 occupa-tions). (See table 2.)

Most occupations with a related work experience assign-ment do not also have an OJ assignment. O the 98 occu-pations with a related work experience assignment otherthan none, only 31 have an OJ assignment other thannone. (See table 2.) Tese 31 occupations are a diverselist, representing 12 o the 22 major occupation groupsand 5 o the 8 education categories.

Results for the 20102020 projections

Summary results. In their analysis o the 20102020occupational projections, Lockard and Wol presentedsummary data or each o the three dimensions o edu-cation, training, and related work experience.10 (See table3.) Tese data are totals or all occupations assigned toeach category. For example, employment in 2010 or thebachelors degree education category was 22.2 million and

is projected to grow by 16.5 percent to 25.8 million by2020. Tese numbers represent the sum o employmentin all 154 occupations assigned bachelors degree as thetypical entry-level education. Note that these data do notrepresent the number o workers with bachelors degreesin 2010 or projected to have such degrees in 2020.Te summary inormation in Lockard and Wol shows

what the BLS projections indicate about the changing de-mand or entry-level workers with various types o educa-tional preparation. Te astest projected growth is amongoccupations with masters degree and doctoral or proes-sional degree as the typically entry-level education need-

ed, while the slowest growth is among occupations withhigh school diploma or equivalent. Tese data are useulbecause demand or workers with particular levels o edu-cation attainment is largely driven by growth or declinein employment in the occupations in which such attain-ment is typically required or entry. Te BLS projectionsdepict the demand by occupation. Actual labor marketactivity may be somewhat dierent. Given the complex-ity o entry paths in certain occupations, some employ-ers may require or preer dierent education entry levels

than the typical levels identied byBLS, and employersmay adjust entry requirements in times o high or low un-employment. Also, within an education attainment level,demand may vary by the eld o study related to the occu-pation. Indeed, the BLS projections indicate, or example,

that bachelors degree occupations in the computer andmathematical occupations group are projected to grow by22.9 percent between 2010 and 2020, much aster thanthe 13.7 percent growth projected or bachelors degreeoccupations in the education, training, and library group.

For the OJ dimension, Lockard and Wol show thatthe astest growth is projected or occupations assignedto the apprenticeship category, at 22.5 percent compared

with 14.3 percent or all occupations. Tis category in-cludes mainly construction occupations, which are pro-

jected to grow at above average rates but are not expectedto regain all the jobs lost during the 20072009 recession.For the work experience in a related-occupation dimen-sion, the astest projected growth is among occupationsin which no such experience is typically required. Amongoccupations with a work experience assignment otherthan none, the most rapid projected growth is a below-average 13.0 percent change over the decade or the lessthan 1-year group. (See table 3.)

Education and training requirements and wages. How dowages vary across the education and training categories?able 3 and chart 1 show the May 2010 median annual

wages or the occupations assigned to the various edu-cation, work experience, and OJ categories. Tese sum-mary-level data rom the BLS Occupational EmploymentStatistics program indicate the wage variation. Te OESdata are medians or all workers, including both entry-level and experienced workers, while the education andtraining assignments are or entry-level preparation. How

wages vary when education, work experience, and OJ arecombined to show paths o entry and preparation is dis-cussed in the ollowing paragraphs.Across the education categories, the wage patterns ap-

proximate what would be expected rom other inorma-

tion: wages are generally higher as the typical entry-leveleducation rises.11 Te results dier somewhat rom thisexpectation, however, because other characteristics aect

wages, including related work experience, OJ, and theeld o study related to the occupation.Te highest median annual wages, at $87,500, are or

occupations in the doctoral or proessional degree catego-rymore than twice the $33,840 median or all occupa-tions. Median annual wages are similar or the three next-highest education categories: masters degree at $60,240,


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Table 2. Number of occupations assigned to education, on-the-job training, and previous work experience categories

Typical entry-leveleducation and work

experience in a relatedoccupation

Typical on-the-job training

Total, alloccupations

Internship-residency

Apprentice-ship

Long-termon-the-job

training

Moderate-termon-the-job

training

Short-termon-the-job

trainingNone

Total, all occupat ions 749 25 15 70 221 177 241More than 5 years 18 1 3 1 13

1 to 5 years 70 2 2 10 3 53

Less than 1 year 10 1 3 5 1

None 651 23 15 66 205 168 174

Doctoral or professional degree 25 8 1 16

More than 5 years 1 1

1 to 5 years

Less than 1 year

None 24 8 16

Masters degree 29 4 25


1 to 5 years 2 2

Less than 1 year

None 26 4 22

Bachelors degree 154 13 4 20 2 115More than 5 years 6 6

1 to 5 years 31 2 1 3 1 24

Less than 1 year 1 1

None 116 11 3 17 1 84

Associates degree 47 1 3 10 2 31


1 to 5 years 1 1

Less than 1 year

None 45 1 3 10 2 29

Postsecondary nondegreeaward 42 7 6 6 23

More than 5 years

1 to 5 years 3 3

Less than 1 year

None 39 7 6 6 20

Some college, no degree 6 1 2 2 1More than 5 years 1 1

1 to 5 years 1 1

Less than 1 year 1 1

None 3 1 1 1

High school diploma orequivalent 350 14 49 159 100 28

More than 5 years 8 1 3 4

1 to 5 years 30 5 2 23

Less than 1 year 4 1 1 2

None 308 14 47 150 96 1

Less than high school 96 6 24 64 2

More than 5 years

1 to 5 years 2 1 1

Less than 1 year 4 2 2

None 90 5 21 62 2SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

bachelors degree at $63,430, and associates degree at$61,590. (See table 3 and chart 1.)Te somewhat lower median wage or masters degree oc-

cupations compared with bachelors and associates degreeoccupations conicts with the expectation that investmentin additional education generally results in a return o high-er wages. Wages are aected by actors besides the level o

degree, however, including the eld o study relevant to theoccupation. Returns are generally higher in some types ooccupationsnotably those in management and in techni-cal eldsthan others with the same or higher educationrequirements, such as counseling or social work.

Chart 2 shows the distribution o employment by rangeso median wages or the masters, bachelors, and associ-


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Table 3. Employment, total job openings, and median annual wages by education, work experience, and on-the-jobtraining category, 20102020

[In thousands]

Education,work experience,

and on-the-job training

EmploymentChange,

20102020

Total job openingsdue to growth and

replacement needs,

20102020

Medianannualwage,

May2010

Number Percent distribution

2010 2020 2010 2020 Number Percent Number Percent

Typical education neededfor entry

Total, all occupations 143,068.2 163,537.1 100.0 100.0 20,468.9 14.3 54,787.4 100.0 $33,840

Doctoral or professionaldegree 4,409.7 5,286.3 3.1 3.2 876.6 19.9 1,701.8 3.1 87,500

Masters degree 1,986.0 2,417.2 1.4 1.5 431.2 21.7 903.9 1.6 60,240

Bachelors degree 22,171.1 25,827.2 15.5 15.8 3,656.1 16.5 8,562.4 15.6 63,430

Associates degree 7,994.6 9,434.6 5.6 5.8 1,440.0 18.0 2,941.0 5.4 61,590

Postsecondary nondegreeaward 6,524.0 7,624.9 4.6 4.7 1,100.9 16.9 2,389.6 4.4 34,220

Some college, no degree 811.6 953.8 .6 .6 142.2 17.5 362.0 .7 44,350

High school diploma orequivalent 62,089.6 69,665.7 43.4 42.6 7,576.1 12.2 21,745.9 39.7 34,180

Less than high school 37,081.7 42,327.4 25.9 25.9 5,245.7 14.1 16,180.8 29.5 20,070

Work experience in arelated occupation

Total, all occupations 143,068.2 163,537.1 100.0 100.0 20,468.9 14.3 54,787.4 100.0 33,840

More than 5 years 4,612. 4 4, 956. 0 3. 2 3. 0 343.6 7. 4 1,368. 5 2.5 87,410

1 to 5 years 17,103.0 19,078.2 12.0 11.7 1,975.2 11.5 5,638.7 10.3 52,000

Less than 1 year 3,129.6 3,535.2 2.2 2.2 405.6 13.0 1,125.2 2.1 32,320

None 118,223.3 135,967.7 82.6 83.1 17,744.5 15.0 46,654.9 85.2 31,260

Typical on-the-jobtraining

Total, all occupations 143,068.2 163,537.1 100.0 100.0 20,468.9 14.3 54,787.4 100.0 33,840

Internship-residency 5,374.2 6,271.5 3.8 3.8 897.3 16.7 2,193.6 4.0 55,580

Apprenticeship 2,539.0 3,109.2 1.8 1.9 570.2 22.5 1,183.0 2.2 44,550

Long-term 7,039.0 7,920.5 4.9 4.8 881.5 12.5 2,545.5 4.6 45,370

Moderate-term 25,007.0 28,244.5 17.5 17.3 3,237.5 12.9 8,682.0 15.8 35,650Short-term 58,171.0 66,040.0 40.7 40.4 7,869.0 13.5 23,767.8 43.4 22,810

None 44,937.9 51,951.3 31.4 31.8 7,013.4 15.6 16,415.5 30.0 56,680


ates degree occupations. Te occupations in these threeeducation categories have about the same shares o em-ployment in the median wage ranges more than $75,000to $100,000, more than $50,000 to $75,000, and less thanmedian or all occupations ($33,840). In the highest-paying median wage range (more than $100,000), how-

ever, only one masters degree occupation appearspo-litical scientists, at $107,420and one associates degreeoccupationair trafc controllers, at $108,040. Each othese occupations accounts or 0.3 percent o employmentamong all occupations in its education category. Eightbachelors degree occupations have median wages above$100,000, however, and they account or 7.7 percent othe jobs in bachelors degree occupations: chie executives;architectural and engineering managers; natural sciencesmanagers; computer and inormation systems manag-

ers; petroleum engineers; marketing managers; nancialmanagers; and airline pilots, copilots, and ight engineers.

All the bachelors degree occupations in the highest wagerange require education in business, science or engineer-ing, or another technical eld, and all but petroleum en-gineers require related work experience or, in the case o

airline pilots, copilots, and ight engineers, moderate-term OJ.

In wage range rom $33,840, the median wage or all oc-cupations, to $50,000, the masters degree occupations havenearly twice the share o employment (20.1 percent) thando bachelors degree occupations (11.4 percent), and as-sociates degree occupations all in between (16.5 percent).(See chart 2.) Te seven masters degree occupations in this

wage range include our community and social service oc-cupations (marriage and amily therapists, mental health


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Chart 1. Median annual wages for occupations by education and training category, May 2010

Total, all occupat ions

Typical education needed for entry

Doctoral or professional degree

Masters degree

Bachelors degree

Associates degree

Postsecondary nondegree award

Some college, no degree

High school diploma or equivalent

Less than high school

Work experience in a related occupation

More than 5 years

1 to 5 years

Less than 1 year

None

Typical on-the-job training

Internship-residency

Apprenticeship

Long-term

Moderate-term

Short-term

None

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000

87,500

60,240

63,430

61,590

34,180

34,220

44,350

20,070

87,410

52,000

32,320

31,260

55,580

44,550

45,370

35,650

22,810

56,680

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Employment Statistics.

33,840

Dollars

counselors, all other counselors, and healthcare social work-ers); two education, training, and library occupations (cura-tors and arm and home management advisors); and onehealthcare technical occupation (all other therapists). Temental health counselors occupation pulls the overall wageor this group down, because it is a relatively large occupa-tion, with low median wages o $38,150.

In chart 1, or the two categories between high school di-ploma and associates degree, the wages dier substantially,

with $34,220 or occupations in the postsecondary nonde-

gree award category and $44,350 or those in the some col-lege, no degree, category. Te latter category contains onlysix occupations, all o which require either related workexperience or OJ, or both. For the high school diplomacategory, median annual wages o $34,180 are similar to thepostsecondary nondegree award category, perhaps reect-ing the act that nearly all occupations in the high schoolcategory also require related work experience or OJ, orboth. As expected, wages or occupations in the high schoolcategory are much higher than the $20,070 or occupations

in the less than high school category.When wages are considered by the related work expe-

rience categories, occupations typically requiring morethan 5 years o related work experience have much higher

wages, at $87,410, than or any other work experience cat-egory. Most o these occupations are managers or supervi-sors. Occupations in the 1 to 5 years o related work expe-rience category had median wages o $52,000, much morethan the median or all occupations. Wages diered littlebetween the less than 1 year and no work experience cat-

egories, at $32,320 and $31,260, respectively. (See chart 1.)For the OJ categories shown in chart 1, occupations

with an OJ assignment o none had the highest medianwage, at $56,680. Te 241 occupations in this group rangedwidely across all the education categories, as seen in table2. Among occupations with OJ assignments other thannone, wages were generally higher with more training.Median wages were similar between the apprenticeshipoccupations ($44,550) and long-term OJ occupations($45,370). Wages or these two groups were signicantly


11/16


below the $55,580 or the internship-residency group. Teinternship-residency group includes a mix o highly paidmedical practitioners as well as teaching and counselingoccupations that pay above average but much less than themedical practitioners. Occupations with moderate-term

OJ are typically paid much more ($35,650) than thosewith short-term OJ ($22,810). (See chart 1.)

Value o work experience and training. Work experienceand OJ can be important parts o the path or entry andcompetency in an occupation. Looking across the threedimensions o the systemthe pathprovides additionalinsight into the value o work experience and OJ regard-ing pay and job opportunities. Out o the 192 possiblecombinations o education, work experience, and OJ, 59paths include one or more occupations. Some o the paths,

with one occupation, have very large employment. For this

analysis, the 59 paths were urther narrowed to the 22 thathad 10 or more occupations and/or 2010 employment o 1million or greater. Tese paths are shown in table 4, whichdisplays the paths sorted by education assignment and thenby work experience and OJ. All typical entry-level educa-tion categories are represented, except or some college, nodegree. wo o the paths each have one large occupation

with employment o greater than 1 million.An analysis o these paths reveals the ollowing three

observations. First, or occupations assigned the same

entry-level education, those that require work experiencegenerally pay more than those without it. Second, theastest growing paths include many healthcare occupa-tions. Last, most job openings (new jobs and replacementpositions) are projected in paths with lower pay, little or-

mal education, no work experience, and little or no OJ.Te 2010 median annual wages or the 22 selected pathsare shown in table 4. O these paths, ve are bachelors de-gree paths. Te two bachelors degree paths with work ex-perience (Bachelors/More than 5 years/None and Bach-elors/1 to 5 years/None)12 have higher median wages thanthe three bachelors degree paths that do not need workexperience. Occupations that typically need a bachelorsdegree and work experience are, or the most part, manag-ers, directors, administrators, and others with managerial-type responsibilities. Te median wage, $116,290, or theBachelors/More than 5 years/None path is the highest

or the bachelors degree groups shown. Tis group con-sists entirely o management occupations.

For the three associates degree paths shown, the pathwith work experience also pays more than those without.Te occupation in the Associates/1 to 5 years/None pathis general and operations managers, a large occupationthat had employment o 1.8 million in 2010 and a median

wage o $94,400. Te two associates degree paths withno work experience paid much less. Associates/None/Moderate-term OJ had a median wage o $41,470 and

Chart 2. Percent of employment by range of May 2010 median wages, masters, bachelors, and associatesdegree occupations

0.3

7.70.3

25.025.2

28.6

48.149.4

46.8

20.111.4

16.5

6.5

6.37.7

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

More than $100,000

More than $75,000 to $100,000

More than $50,000 to $75,000

Median for all occupations ($33,840) to $50,000

Less than median for all occupations ($33,840)

Masters degreeBachelors degreeAssociates degree

Percent



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Table 4. Employment by path, 20102020, for selected paths with 2010 employment greater than 1 million or 10 ormore occupations

[In thousands]

PathEmployment Total job

openingsdue to

growthand re-

placementneeds

Medianannualwage,2010

Numberof

occupa-tions

Number Change, 20102020

Typical entry-leveleducation

Workexperiencein a relatedoccupation

Typical on-the-job tra ining

needed to attaincompetency

2010 2020 Number Percent

Total, all occupations1 143,068.2 163,537.1 20,468.9 14.3 54,787.4 $33,840 749

Doctoral orprofessional degree

None Internship-residency 1,013.9 1,250.7 236.8 23.4 471.0 164,930 8

Doctoral orprofessional degree None None 3,361.8 3,998.4 636.6 18.9 1,221.2 77,800 16

Masters degree None None 1,288.0 1,578.6 290.5 22.6 584.9 56,480 22

Bachelor s degree More than5 years None 1,498.9 1,640.3 141.4 9.4 465.8 116,290 6

Bachelors degree 1 to 5 years None 3,050.1 3,556.5 506.4 16.6 1,175.9 77,410 24

Bachelors degree None Internship-residency 4,081.3 4,677.1 595.8 14.6 1,590.9 52,430 11

Bachelors degree None Moderate-termon-the-jobtraining 2,085.8 2,390.0 304.2 14.6 797.1 61,390 17

Bachelors degree None None 10,800.1 12,801.7 2,001.7 18.5 4,253.6 63,650 84

Associates degree 1 to 5 years None 1,767.1 1,848.6 81.6 4.6 410.1 94,400 1

Associates degree None Moderate-termon-the-jobtraining 382.5 419.5 37.0 9.7 148.3 41,470 10

Associates degree None None 5,188.2 6,416.9 1,228.7 23.7 2,216.5 57,180 29

Postsecondary non-degree award None None 4,650.2 5,540.8 890.6 19.2 1,808.8 29,850 20

High school diplomaor equivalent

More than5 years None 2,282.6 2,344.5 61.9 2.7 651.4 63,730 4


1 to 5 years Short-term on-the-job training 1,616.3 1,945.6 329.3 20.4 652.9 37,700 2

High school diplomaor equivalent 1 to 5 years None 8,904.4 9,849.7 945.3 10.6 2,862.0 43,570 23


Less than1 year

Long-term on-the-job training 1,064.2 1,187.3 123.1 11.6 327.2 62,450 1

High school diplomaor equivalent None Apprenticeship 2,509.7 3,074.6 564.9 22.5 1,172.2 44,430 14


None Long-term on-the-job training 4,498.0 5,048.6 550.5 12.2 1,630.6 43,350 47

High school diploma

or equivalent

None Moderate-term

on-the-jobtraining 18,311.4 20,601.3 2,289.9 12.5 6,080.5 34,350 150


None Short-term on-the-job training 21,930.8 24,561.2 2,630.4 12.0 8,008.3 27,840 96

Less than high school None Moderate-termon-the-jobtraining 1,429.2 1,673.5 244.3 17.1 595.6 32,000 21

Less than high school None Short-term on-the-job training 33,402.0 38,159.4 4,757.4 14.2 14,633.3 19,600 62

1 The paths do not add up to the total. SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.


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Associates/None/None occupations paid $57,180.For high school occupations, our paths with work ex-

perience are shown in table 4. wo o these work experi-ence paths are paid much more than any o the other highschool paths. High school/More than 5 years/None had a

median wage o $63,730 in 2010. Tis path includes man-agerial and rst-line supervisor occupations. High school/Less than 1 year/Long-term OJ has one large occupation(business operations specialists, all other) that paid a me-dian wage o $62,450 in 2010.Te High school/None/Apprenticeship path, which

mainly includes construction occupations, had a medianwage o $44,430 in 2010. Tis group paid somewhat morethan two paths with work experience: High school/1 to 5

years/Short-term OJ, at $37,700, and High school/1 to 5years/None, at $43,570. Close to the apprenticeship pathin terms o pay was High school/None/Long-term OJ,at $43,350. Most occupations in this path are in produc-tion; installation, maintenance, and repair; and arts, de-sign, entertainment, sports, and media.

Comparing the median wage or all paths shown in thetable 4, one will nd that our paths pay less than the to-tal median wage o $33,840both Less than high schoolpaths and the High school/None/Short-term OJ andPostsecondary nondegree award/None/None paths. Tispostsecondary nondegree award path includes some low-

er-level healthcare occupations, such as nursing aides andorderlies; a ew service occupations, such as hairstylists;and some technician and repairer occupations. Te threehighest-paid paths shown are Doctoral or proessional/None/Internship-residency, at $164,930; Bachelors/

More than 5 years/None, at $116,290; and Associates/1to 5 years/None, at $94,400. Te Masters/None/Nonepath paid less, at $56,480, than several occupational paths

with less education. Te Masters/None/None path con-tains some lower-paying social work occupations, includ-ing rehabilitation counselors; education, guidance, school,and vocational counselors; and healthcare social workers.Te projected percent growth in employment or the

selected paths is shown in chart 3. Te astest growingpaths are heavily represented by healthcare-related oc-cupations. Other occupations represented in the ast-est growing paths are in science and engineering, socialsciences, and construction. Te Associates/None/Nonepath has the astest projected growth, 23.7 percent, andincludes rapidly growing occupations in healthcare, suchas physical therapy and occupational therapy assistants,diagnostic medical sonographers, dental hygienists, respi-ratory therapists, registered nurses, and several technolo-gists and technicians. Te Associates/None/None pathalso includes occupations that are various types o sciencetechnicians, engineering technicians, and draters. Te

Chart 3. Percent growth in employment for selected paths, projected 20102020

Education/Work experience/On-the-job training

Associates None/NoneDoctoral or professional/None/Internship-residency

Masters/None/NoneHigh school/None/Apprenticeship

High school/1 to 5 years/Short-term OJTPostsecondary nondegree award/None/None

Doctoral or professional/None/NoneBachelors/None/None

Less than high school/None/Moderate-term OJTBachelors/1 to 5 years/None

Bachelors/None/Moderate-term OJTBachelors/None/Internship-residency

Total, all occupat ionsLess than high school/None/Short-term OJT

High school/None/Moderate-term OJTHigh school/None/Long-term OJTHigh school/None/Short-term OJT

High school/Less than 1 year/Long-term OJTHigh school/1 to 5 years/None

Associates/None/Moderate-term OJTBachelors/More than 5 years/None

Associates/1 to 5 years/NoneHigh school/More than 5 years/None

23.723.4

17.1

22.622.5

18.5

20.419.2

18.9

14.6

16.6

14.314.2

12.512.212.0

11.610.6

9.79.4

4.62.7

14.6

0 5 10 15 20 25

57,180164,930

56,48044,43037,70029,85077,80063,65032,00077,41061,39052,430

33,84019,60034,35043,35027,84062,45043,57041,470

116,29094,40063,730

Medianannual wage,

May 2010(in dollars)

PercentSOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.


14/16



Doctoral or proessional/None/Internship-residency pathis projected to grow by 23.4 percent and largely consistso physicians and surgeons and various dentist occupa-tions. Te Masters/None/None path is projected to growby 22.6 percent. Tis path mainly includes healthcare

occupations, such as occupational therapists and physi-cian assistants; counseling and social work occupations,including rehabilitation counselors and healthcare social

workers; and social science occupations, such as histori-ans and sociologists. Te construction occupations makeup all but one o the occupations assigned to the Highschool/None/Apprenticeship path, which is projectedto grow by 22.5 percent. Rapid growth is projected ormany construction occupations as the construction indus-try recovers rom the 20072009 recession; however, thisgrowth represents only a partial recovery o jobs lost.13 Othe 12 paths that are projected to grow aster than theoverall average o 14.3 percent, 9 typically need some levelo postsecondary education.Te paths projected to grow the slowest are High

school/More than 5 years/None; Associates/1 to 5 years/None; and Bachelors/More than 5 years/None. Te Highschool/More than 5 years/None path contains an occupa-tion projected to decline: armers, ranchers, and other ag-ricultural managers. Te lone occupation in Associates/1to 5 years/None is the large and well-paying general andoperations managers, which is projected to grow by 4.6percent. Te Bachelors/More than 5 years/None path

contains six management occupations.For the most part, occupations in paths projected to havethe most job openings rom 2010 to 2020 are those withlarge employment numbers in 2010 and that require littleormal education, no work experience, little or no OJ,and have low pay. (See chart 4.) Job openings come romboth economic growth (new jobs) and the need to replace

workers who permanently leave occupations, and thenumber o openings due to replacing workers is generallylarger than the number o new jobs. Te path projected tohave the most job openings is also the lowest-paid path onthe chart: Less than high school/None/Short-term OJ,

with 14.6 million job openings and 4.8 million o thosebeing new jobs. Next are two high school occupations:High school/None/Short-term OJ, with 8.0 million jobopenings (2.6 million rom growth), and High school/None/Moderate-term OJ, with 6.1 million job openings(2.3 million rom growth).Although the top three paths with the largest number

o job openings do not need postsecondary education, thepath with the ourth largest number o job openings does.

Te Bachelors/None/None path is projected to have 4.3

million job openings rom 2010 to 2020, and 2.0 milliono those are to be new jobs due to growth. Tis path is theourth largest in occupational employment in 2010, at 10.8million, and has an assortment o occupational groups.

Labor market analysis and required education

As noted at the beginning, BLS is presenting its approachto a problem that labor market analysts ace across theglobe. Tese analysts need a way to generalize and sum-marize employment trends by education and other prepa-ration, which requires developing some construct to rep-resent the complexities o how labor markets intersect

with education and other preparation or work.A review o several other studies nds two approaches

to generalizing and summarizing employment trends. Terst is a classication approach in which occupations arecategorized according to education and training. A sec-ond approach is computational, in which the base yearand projected employment are distributed by educationalattainment and then employment is reaggregated by theeducational attainment categories, resulting in projectedlabor demand by education level. In both approaches, someanalysts (but not BLS) also develop projections o the labororce by education or skill level and compare these pro-

jections to the labor demand by education level to depictprojected supply-demand conditions by education level.Te BLS approach is an example o the rst approach,

since each SOC occupation or which projections are pro-duced receives the education and training assignments. TeSOC itsel does not consider education or training level inthe design o the classication. Other occupational clas-sication systems, however, build education level into theoccupational classication itsel using a skills hierarchy.

Te International Standard Classication o Occupations(ISCO)14 and Canadas National Occupational Classica-tion (NOC)15 are examples o such classications.Te Canadian Occupational Projections System pro-

duces demand projections by broad skill level, using theNOCs hierarchy o education level or training usually re-

quired or a person to work in a given occupation. Tisprocess is straightorward. Te projections or individualoccupations are summed according to the NOC hierarchy,resulting in employment by ve skill levels: managementoccupations and occupations usually requiring universityeducation, college education or apprenticeship training,high school diploma, and onlyOJ.16 Te Canadian ana-lysts also produce labor orce projections by level o educa-tion attainment and then convert these labor orce pro-

jections to broad skill level using the distributions o the


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nonstudent labor orce by education and skill level. Teyalso discuss in detail the reasons why a workers educationand the requirements o his or her eventual occupation maybe quite dierent, noting that, or example, in occupationstypically requiring onlyOJ, about 30 percent o the work-

ers have a postsecondary education.17

Tis nding is simi-lar to the comparison o the BLS education categories andtheACS educational attainment data noted earlier.A broadly applied example o the second approach is

ound in Europe. Te European Center or the Devel-opment o Vocational raining, reerred to by its Frenchacronym CEDEFOP (Centre Europen pour le Dvel-oppement de la Formation Proessionnelle), has producedanalyses o skills supply and demand in Europe. Temodels used include production o demand by occupa-tion and translation o this inormation into demand byqualication. Qualications are broadly dened based on

education attainment as three groups: high, medium, andlow. Employment demand projections are translated toqualications based on continuation o past patterns oemployment by broad qualication level within both oc-cupations and industries.18 As in Canada, the CEDEFOPmodel also includes components or projecting the labororce by education attainment and or allocating the la-bor orce to occupations, assuming historical patterns ounemployment by qualication categories will continue.Te CEDEFOP authors note that there is no simple one-

to-one relationship between occupation and qualica-tion19 but explore how these are changing over time. Likethe Canadian analysis, CEDEFOP examines the nature othe dierences between the characterization o occupa-tional requirements and the actual distribution o work-

ers in occupations by their level o education attainment,identiying a variety o types o mismatches.20

In the United States, an example o the second ap-proach, but also including the rst approach, is ound in arecent working paper by Neumark, Johnson, and Mejia.21

Te study examines the question o whether the pendingretirement o the baby boom generation will result in askills gap in the U.S. labor market. Te authors use theprevious 11 BLS education and training categories to de-pict demand by education attainment, encountering the

weaknesses o these categories described earlier. Te au-thors also project education requirements by assuming a

steady rate o growth between 2008 and 2018 in the edu-cation distributions within occupations.Also in the United States, a Georgetown University re-

port depicts the projected education requirements o jobsby occupation using the distribution o 2008 employmentby occupation and education attainment and projecting thechange in this distribution to 2018.22 Te Georgetown au-thors assume that the present distribution o educationamong the employed prime-age population is the bestsingle indicator o present demand or education.23

Education/Work experience/On-the-job training

Less than high school/None/Short-term OJTHigh school/None/short-term OJT

High school/None/Moderate-term OJTBachelors/None/None

High school/1 to 5 years/NoneAssociates/None/None

Postsecondary nondegree award/None/NoneHigh school/None/Long-term OJT

Bachelors/None/Internship-residencyDoctoral or professional/None/None

Bachelors/1 to 5 years/NoneHigh school/None/Apprenticeship

Bachelors/None/Moderate-term OJTHigh school/More than 5 years/None

Less than high school/None/Moderate-term OJTMasters/None/None

Doctoral or professional/None/internship-residency

Bachelors/More than 5 years/NoneAssociates/1 to 5 years/None

High school/Less than 1 year/Long-term OJTAssociates/None/Moderate-term OJT

19,60027,84034,35063,65043,57057,18029,85043,35052,43077,41044,43061,39037,70063,73032,00056,480

164,930

116,29094,40062,45041,470

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

Growth Replacement needs

Chart 4. Job openings due to growth and replacement needs for selected paths, projected 20102020

Job openings (in thousands)SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Medianannual wage,

May 2010(in dollars)


16/16


ing it. Tey provide useul inormation not only or careerseekers and persons who advise them but also or policymakers, businesses, and others with interest in educationand training needs. When the categories are applied to the20102020 employment projections, they show that aster

growth is projected in occupations in which postsecondaryeducation is typically needed or entry, and in terms oOJ,the astest growth is projected in occupations that typicallyrequire an apprenticeship. Te system also allows analy-sis across its three dimensions, and the three dimensionsmake up a typical path. Te astest growing paths rom2010 to 2020 are heavily represented by healthcare occupa-tions. Individuals in occupations with the same entry-leveleducation requirement and who need work experience earnmore than those who do not need work experience.

Tese studies, in the United States and elsewhere, dem-onstrate the complexity o relating education to employ-ment requirements. All rely on employment demand byoccupation as the source o demand or workers with vari-ous educational qualications. Te studies dier in their

consideration o the nature o mismatches between theeducation that workers have and the education and train-ing that occupations require. Te newBLS education andtraining categories and the 20102020 employment pro-

jections provide a new data set or uture research on thisimportant topic.

IN SUM, the new BLS education and training categoriesprovide inormation on the typical path that one needs toenter an occupation and to become competent at perorm-

NOTES1 Te education and training assignments or all occupations in the

2010 National Employment Matrix are shown in Employment Projec-tions able 1.12, http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_112.htm.

2 Denitions or the individual categories and assignments are pre-sented at http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_defnitions_edtrain.pd.

3 Te prior system was introduced in Employment Outlook: 19942005. Job Quality and Other Aspects o Projected Job Growth. Chapter III.Te Educational Requirements o Jobs.BLS Bulletin 2742, December1995. It was urther described in A New Way to Classiy Occupationsby Education and raining, Occupational Outlook Quarterly (Winter19951996).

4 Tese data are available in Employment Projections able 1.11 athttp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_111.htm.

5

BLS produces employment projections or 749 occupations; theseoccupations match the structure that the Occupational EmploymentStatistics (OES) program used to publish 2010 data. OES occupationsare classied on the basis o the Standard Occupational Classication(SOC) system. However, OES data do not exactly match the updatesmade to the SOC in 2010. OES is transitioning to the 2010 SOC, butthe change will not be ully implemented until the 2012 reerence year.

6 Employment Projections able 1.11, http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_111.htm.

7 See, or example, Neeta P. Fogg and Paul E. Harrington, TeGrowing Disconnection Between Recent College Graduates and theCollege Labor Market, CONINUING HIGHER EDUCAION RE-VIEW, Vol. 75, 2011, http://www.drexel.edu/provost/clmp/docs/CLMP_RisingMal-EmploymentandtheGreatRecession.pd.

8 SOC 272099, Entertainers and Perormers, Sports and RelatedWorkers, All Other.

9 Te count o 58 manager and supervisor occupations with a workexperience assignment includes all occupations in SOC Major Group11, Management Occupations, all rst-line supervisor occupations,and additional occupations with manager or director in the SOCtitle and/or planning and directing activities in the occupational de-nition (SOC codes 131011, 212021, 271011, and 272012).

10 C. Brett Lockard and Michael Wol, Occupational EmploymentProjections to 2020,Monthly Labor Review, January 2012, pp. 84108,http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2012/01/art5ull.pd.

11 For example, see Education Pays at http://www.bls.gov/emp/

ep_chart_001.htm.Tis chart shows 2011 median weekly earnings orpersons age 25 and over by educational attainment, using data rom theCurrent Population Survey.

12 Te paths are presented in the order o education/work experi-ence/on-the-job training; see chart 3.

13 See Dixie Sommers and James C. Franklin, Overview o Em-ployment Projections to 2020,Monthly Labor Review, January 2012,pp. 320,http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2012/01/art1ull.pd.

14 International Labor Organization, International Standard Classi-cation o Occupations, http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/isco/?wwparam=1330965836.

15 Statistics Canada, National Occupational ClassicationStatis-tics (NOC-S), http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/standard-

norme/soc-cnp/2006/noc2006-cnp2006-menu-eng.htm.16 Human Resources and Skills Development Canada, Looking-

Ahead: A 10-Year Outlook or the Canadian Labour Market (20082017), November 2008, November 2008, pp. 3538, http://www23.hrsdc.gc.ca/[email protected]. In a ootnote on page 19, collegein the Canadian system is described as including completion o a cer-ticate or diploma rom a postsecondary institution (community college,CEGEP, nursing school, etc.) and a certicate below the Bachelorslevel at a university.

17Ibid., pp. 2123.18 CEDEFOP, Skills Supply and Demand in Europe: Medium-

erm Forecast Up to 2020, 2010, pp. 5663 and Annex III, http://www.cedeop.europa.eu/EN/publications/15540.aspx.

19

Ibid., p. 58.20 CEDEFOP, Te Skill Matching Challenge: Analysing Skill Mis-

match and Policy Implications, 2010, http://www.cedeop.europa.eu/EN/publications/15275.aspx.

21 David Neumark, Hans P. Johnson, and Marisol Cuellar Mejia,NBERWorking Paper no. 17213, Future Skills Shortages in the U.S.Economy? July 2011, http://www.nber.org/papers/w17213 .

22 Georgetown University, Center on Education and the Work-orce, Help Wanted: Projections o Jobs and Education RequirementsTrough 2018, 2010,http://cew.georgetown.edu/jobs2018/.

23Ibid., p. 130.
http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_112.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_definitions_edtrain.pdfhttp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_111.htmhttp://www.drexel.edu/provost/clmp/docs/CLMP_RisingMal-EmploymentandtheGreatRecession.pdfhttp://www.drexel.edu/provost/clmp/docs/CLMP_RisingMal-EmploymentandtheGreatRecession.pdfhttp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2012/01/art1full.pdfhttp://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/isco/?wwparam=1330965836http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/isco/?wwparam=1330965836http://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/standard-norme/soc-cnp/2006/noc2006-cnp2006-menu-eng.htmhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/standard-norme/soc-cnp/2006/noc2006-cnp2006-menu-eng.htmhttp://www23.hrsdc.gc.ca/[email protected]://www23.hrsdc.gc.ca/[email protected]://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/publications/15540.aspxhttp://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/publications/15540.aspxhttp://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/publications/15275.aspxhttp://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/publications/15275.aspxhttp://www.nber.org/papers/w17213http://cew.georgetown.edu/jobs2018/http://cew.georgetown.edu/jobs2018/http://www.nber.org/papers/w17213http://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/publications/15275.aspxhttp://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/publications/15275.aspxhttp://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/publications/15540.aspxhttp://www.cedefop.europa.eu/EN/publications/15540.aspxhttp://www23.hrsdc.gc.ca/[email protected]://www23.hrsdc.gc.ca/[email protected]://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/standard-norme/soc-cnp/2006/noc2006-cnp2006-menu-eng.htmhttp://www.statcan.gc.ca/subjects-sujets/standard-norme/soc-cnp/2006/noc2006-cnp2006-menu-eng.htmhttp://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/isco/?wwparam=1330965836http://www.ilo.org/public/english/bureau/stat/isco/?wwparam=1330965836http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2012/01/art1full.pdfhttp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_chart_001.htmhttp://www.drexel.edu/provost/clmp/docs/CLMP_RisingMal-EmploymentandtheGreatRecession.pdfhttp://www.drexel.edu/provost/clmp/docs/CLMP_RisingMal-EmploymentandtheGreatRecession.pdfhttp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_111.htmhttp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_definitions_edtrain.pdfhttp://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_112.htm

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