financial results for the year ended 30 june 2011€¦ · 14 operating profit (rbn) 1h12 % ∆ vs...
TRANSCRIPT
financial results
for the six months ended 31 December 2011
JSE: SOL | NYSE: SSL
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forward-looking statements
Sasol may, in this document, make certain statements that are not historical facts and relate to analyses and
other information which are based on forecasts of future results and estimates of amounts not yet
determinable. These statements may also relate to our future prospects, developments and business
strategies. Examples of such forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements regarding
exchange rate fluctuations, volume growth, increases in market share, total shareholder return and cost
reductions. Words such as "believe", "anticipate", "expect", "intend", "seek", "will", "plan", "could", "may",
"endeavour" and "project" and similar expressions are intended to identify such forward-looking statements,
but are not the exclusive means of identifying such statements. By their very nature, forward-looking
statements involve inherent risks and uncertainties, both general and specific, and there are risks that the
predictions, forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements will not be achieved. If one or more of
these risks materialise, or should underlying assumptions prove incorrect, our actual results may differ
materially from those anticipated. You should understand that a number of important factors could cause
actual results to differ materially from the plans, objectives, expectations, estimates and intentions expressed
in such forward-looking statements. These factors are discussed more fully in our most recent annual report
under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 on Form 20-F filed on 7 October 2011 and in other filings with the
United States Securities and Exchange Commission. The list of factors discussed therein is not exhaustive;
when relying on forward-looking statements to make investment decisions, you should carefully consider both
these factors and other uncertainties and events. Forward-looking statements apply only as of the date on
which they are made, and we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any of them, whether as a
result of new information, future events or otherwise.
JSE: SOL | NYSE: SSL
introduction
David E Constable chief executive officer
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going to the 2012 games:
Olympics and Paralympics
Banyana Banyana Sasol South Africa Wheelchair Basketball Team
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what you will hear today
● Record interim earnings
● Solid group operational performance
● Our strategic agenda continues to serve us well
● Project pipeline offers significant opportunity
● Compelling investment proposition
key messages
We remain committed to maximising long-term shareholder value
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Global consumption of fossil fuels %
global energy trends
towards the golden age of gas
● Global energy demand will be ~ 30% higher
by 2040 led by developing regions
● Most widely used fuels will remain oil, coal
and gas
● Natural gas will grow dramatically over time
to overtake oil
● By 2040, 30% of global electricity will be
produced through natural gas
● 30% of global gas production will be
through unconventional sources - shale gas
Sasol is well positioned with gas being a clear bridge to the future
15
25
35
45
55
1970 1977 1984 1991 1998 2005 2012 2019 2026 2033 2040
Oil Coal Gas
Source: International Energy Agency
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making a positive contribution
● Largest corporate taxpayer
● Hundreds of millions of rand invested in bursaries, skills development initiatives,
artisan learnerships and continuing tertiary education
● R14bn Sasol Mining investment in three mines, resulting in
• more than 4 000 jobs retained
• approximately 5 000 jobs created during the construction phase
in South Africa
Synfuels Middelbult colliery
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making a positive contribution
● Energy supply and socio-economic development
● An alternative to ensure cost-effective energy security and downstream manufacturing
● In-country investment and use of resources
● Driving significant skills transfer to the local workforce
● Supplier of world-class products
in the countries in which we operate
ORYX GTL, Qatar Uzbekistan GTL site visit
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pursuing responsible growth
sustainable operations
Mozambique operations Open cycle gas turbines, Synfuels
● Safety
• RCR maintained
• Safety improvement plans implemented
● Energy efficiency initiatives and policies
• On track for 15% reduction in energy consumption in 2015
• 60% self-generated power capacity in 2013
• Active member of “Team SA” at COP17
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solid operations
● Production improvements at ORYX GTL and Arya Polymers
● Canadian shale gas assets ramping up
● Chemicals maintain strong contribution to group operating profit
● Decrease in Synfuels production contained to 1,3%, despite industrial action and plant
incidents
operations highlights
ORYX GTL Synfuels
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delivering superior shareholder returns
● Operating profit up 70% to R20,5bn
● Headline earnings per share up 81% to R23,50
● Cash generated by operations up 50% to R22,7bn
● Interim dividend up by 84% to R5,70 per share
● Strong balance sheet maintained
financial performance highlights
Record first half performance
JSE: SOL | NYSE: SSL
financial and operational review
Christine Ramon chief financial officer
13
Prices reflect international commodities or baskets of commodities and are not necessarily Sasol specific
Sources: RSA Department of Energy, ICIS-LOR, Reuters, Platts, McCloskey and RSA coal report, International Energy Agency
favourable macro environment
Commodity prices
Rand/unit
Average
1H12
% ∆ vs 1H11
Brent/bbl 849 ▲ 46
Fuel products/bbl 961 ▲ 45
Polymers/ton 9 609 ▲ 12
Solvents/ton 10 745 ▲ 18
Export coal/ton 850 ▲ 25
US
$/t
on
Chemical prices
Solvents Basket Avg Polymers
$1 210
$1 279
$1 265
$1 417
1H11 1H12
0
5
10
0
80
160
$/m
mb
tu (
ga
s p
rice)
US
$/b
bl
Fuel, oil and US gas prices
Brent
Product price
Henry Hub (RHS)$91
$82
$130
$111
1H11 1H12
US
$1
= R
an
d
Currency
1H11 1H12
R7,11
R7,63
$4,04 $3,72
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Operating profit (Rbn) 1H12
% ∆ vs
1H11
SA Energy 13,5 ▲81
International Energy 1,2 ▲32
Chemicals 4,3 ▲26
Other 1,5
Total group 20,5 ▲70
Operating margin (%) 24,6 ▲ 7
Earnings per share (R) 23,05 ▲82
Dividend per share (R) 5,70 ▲84
Cash from operating
activities (Rbn) 22,7 ▲50
strong growth in operating profit
● SA Energy benefits from higher prices
● Strong performance from ORYX GTL
● Chemicals deliver higher product prices and wider
margins
● Mark-to-market gains on forward exchange
contracts
66% 6%
21%
7%
Operating profit split
SA Energy International Energy Chemicals Other
International operations1 contribute 28% to group performance
1. Includes Mozambican gas value chain
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cash fixed costs (Rm)
weaker rand, energy costs and plant maintenance
impact cash fixed costs
14 632 1% 14 707 8% 2% 2%
13% ∆ 16 484
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
1H11 Growth Period-on-period
normalised
Inflation Exchangerate
Maintenance 1H12
Cash
fixed costs
in real terms
up 3%
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SA energy:
strong profit and cash flow generator
● Mining achieves higher prices, production up
● Gas benefits from improved sales prices and
higher volumes
● Synfuels higher average rand oil prices drive
improved product prices
● Oil benefits from wider wholesale margins despite
lower volumes at Natref
Operating profit (Rm) 1H12
% ∆ vs
1H11
Mining 1 002 ▲42²
Gas 1 461 ▲14
Synfuels 9 909 ▲84
Oil 1 099 ▲65
Other (2)
Total cluster 13 469 ▲81
Sasol forecourt Thubelisha colliery Synfuels
2. After adjusting for once-off Ixia Coal share-based payment of R565m
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Mozambique central processing facility
international energy:
ORYX drives growth in profitability
● ORYX delivers strong performance
• 28 700 bbl/d, 89% utilisation
• Contributes 8% to group operating profit
● SPI benefits from higher prices in Mozambique
and Gabon
• Canada’s profit contribution offset by
depreciation and forex translations
• Expansion of onshore gas production in
Mozambique achieves beneficial operation
Operating profit (Rm) 1H12 1H11
SSI 1 033 539
● ORYX 1 584 871
● Funding growth (551) (332)
SPI 121 333
● Mozambique and Gabon 747 565
● Canada (373) -
● Exploration and growth (253) (232)
Total cluster 1 154 872
ORYX GTL, Qatar
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chemicals cluster:
sound business model drives margin expansion
● Polymers strong international contribution, local
margins under pressure
• Arya ramps up to design capacity
● Solvents driven by higher product prices despite
lower sales volumes
● O&S profit margins supported by sound business
model
● Strong prices in Nitro offset lower volumes
• Once-off profit on disposal of Phalaborwa
operations
Operating profit (Rm) 1H12
% ∆ vs
1H11
Polymers 546 ▼ 5
Solvents 1 115 ▲153
O&S 1 660 ▲ 4
Other 1 018 ▲ 21
Total cluster 4 339 ▲ 26
Nitro, Secunda, South Africa O&S, Louisiana, USA Solvents, Secunda, South Africa
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Estimated total capital investments (Rm)
cash flows drive strong dividends
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
2011a 2012e 2013e
Other Chemicals SA Energy Int Energy
Potential gas
acquisitions
24 488
29 000
1H12
Uses of cash (Rbn)
5,2
6,1
14,5
Taxation Dividends Capex
32 000
Well positioned to fund growth and provide buffer for volatility
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committed to delivering superior
shareholder returns
3. Source: Bloomberg 31 December 2006 to 31 December 2011, assuming dividends are reinvested in Sasol Ltd securities
0
6
12
18
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Dividend per share (ZAR)
Interim Final
Rand TSR³ 77%
US$ TSR³ 53%
Progressive dividend growth
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Operational performance FY12 Macro environment remains uncertain
● Production
• Synfuels full year target of 7,0 to
7,2 million tons
• Maintain ORYX at 80-90% utilisation
rates
• Arya utilisation above 80%
• Growing Canada gas volumes
● Normalised cash fixed costs contained
within inflation
● Margin expansion
● Oil price remains strong
● Chemical prices under pressure
● Rand strengthening remains a major risk
outlook
Well positioned to deliver increased full year earnings
JSE: SOL | NYSE: SSL
sustainable value creation
David E Constable chief executive officer
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our strategic agenda continues to serve us well
Operations
Excellence
Foundation
Develop and empower
our people
Gro
up
im
pe
rati
ve
s
Continuously improve
and grow existing asset
base
Deliver on the
South African
transformation agenda
Sustainable growth
Accelerate GTL,
focused CTL growth
Grow related upstream
business
Grow technological lead
Grow chemicals based
on feedstock and/or
technology advantage
Develop and grow new
energy
Definition of victory
Grow
shareholder
value
sustainably
Functional
Excellence
Capital
Excellence
Sales & Marketing
Excellence
Planning &
Optimisation
Values-driven
Leadership
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project pipeline offers significant opportunity
The list above is not exhaustive and displays only the major projects
Grow upstream
business
Accelerate GTL,
focused CTL
Grow chemicals on
basis of technology or
feedstock advantage
New Energy
Improve and grow
existing asset base
Feasibility
● Mozambique CPF expansion
● Further acquisition of gas assets
● Coal Bed Methane, Southern Africa
● Canada GTL
● US GTL
FEED/EPC
● Uzbekistan GTL
● Escravos GTL
● Mozambique blocks A, M-10, Sofala, Inhassoro
● Canada shale gas
● Australia
● Integrated US chemicals
● Ethane Cracker
● Tetramerisation
● FT wax expansion
● Mozambique electricity generation ● Sasolburg electricity generation
● C₃ stabilisation
● Secunda growth programme
● Mine replacements
● Ethylene purification
25
Canadian upstream assets
● Development at Farrell Creek continues despite production challenges
● Farrell Creek achieved peak production of 107 mmscf/d in December 2011
● Production at Cypress A well above expectations
● Focus on driving down drilling and completion costs and optimising fracking techniques
● Development plan for 2012 curtailed due to low gas prices but appraisal activities continue
● Medium and long-term ramp-up profiles still in line to feed our GTL aspirations
developments
Economic viability of Montney assets remains intact
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the role of chemicals
● Chemicals generated 21% of group operating profit
● Established competitive market positions
● Optimised integration opportunities spreads risk and maximises value
● Provides balance to Sasol’s GTL portfolio
the contribution of the chemicals cluster
Lake Charles, Louisiana, USA Polymers, Secunda, South Africa O&S, Brunsbuttel, Germany
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a compelling investment proposition
Solid foundation
businesses,
strong cash flows
Superior
shareholder
returns
Committed to maximising long-term shareholder value
Compelling
growth
strategy
Sustainable
value
creation
● Continuously
improving foundation
businesses
● Proven alternative
energy experience
● Highly cash
generative assets
● Focus on cost
containment and
excellence in all we
do
● Growing demand for
energy security
● Ability to monetise
hydrocarbon
resources
● Commercialising
unique technology
● Well positioned in
growth/emerging
markets
● Solid balance sheet
underpins growth
● Progressive dividend
policy
● Market leading
returns
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questions