importance of monthly statistics on natural gas

© OECD/IEA 2010

Importance of monthly statistics on Natural Gas

Mieke ReeceOil and Gas Statistics

IEA Energy Data Centre

Seminar Compilation of Natural Gas Statistics27 February 2012United Nations, New York

© OECD/IEA 2012 Seminar Natural gas statistics - UN 27 February 2012

What is natural gas

The importance and use of natural gas in the world

The outlook for Natural Gas

The need for monthly data

IEA’s monthly gas data collection

system

Overview


What is natural gas?

Natural gas comprises several gases, but consists mainly of methane.

It can be in gaseous form or in liquid state (LNG) LNG is liquefied natural gas that has been

converted temporarily to liquid form for ease of storage or transport. It is condensed into a liquid at close to atmospheric pressure by cooling it to −162 °C (−260 °F).


What is natural gas





system

Overview


World - Share of natural gas in the energy mix

Increase in the share of natural gas in the world


World – Use of natural gas

Natural gas use mainly for power generationIn the other category, gas is used mainly for residential consumption

35%

8%22%

27%

1990

Transformation Energy Industry

Transport Non-Energy Other

40%

9%17%

26%

2009

Transformation Energy Industry

Transport Non-Energy Other


Who are the big players in the gasmarket?


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

350019

7119

7319

7519

7719

7919

8119

8319

8519

8719

8919

9119

9319

9519

9719

9920

0120

0320

0520

0720

09

Billio

n cu

bic

met

res

World - Natural Gas Consumption

Non OECD Total OECD Total

28%

51%

1971-2010


World Regional Growth Natural Gas Consumption

2009

0

100

200

300

400

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900

AME EUR ASO LAM EUS AFR MEA ASI

Billion C

ubic

Metr

es

1973 2010

AME = OECD AmericasEUR = OECD EuropeASO = OECD Asia Oceania

LAM = Latin AmericaEUS= Europe/EurasiaAFR = Africa

MEA = Middle EastASI = Asia including China


What is natural gas





system

Overview


The future of gas ? – A growing market

Global gas demand is expected to grow by 2% per year(*)

(*) WEO - current policies scenario


Natural gas – why is it an attractive fuel?

Reserves – plenty available, about 60 years R/P Production techniques – new production

methods, more efficient and less expensive Transport (LNG) Energy security: several aspects :

Diversify away from oilIncrease security if indigenous production of gasShale gas

Clean fuel – CO2 emissions lower than for coal and oil


What is natural gas





system

Overview


Natural gas - supply and consumption

Marketed Production

Marketed Production

ImportsImports

ExportsExports Stock BuildStock Build

Inland Consumption

Inland Consumption

TransportTransport

TransformationTransformation

IndustryIndustryResidentialCommercialAgriculture

ResidentialCommercialAgriculture

Stock DrawStock Draw

Distribution Losses

Distribution Losses

EnergyEnergy

LNGLNG Pipe linePipe line


What data are collected on an annual basis?


Why are annual data not enough?

Natural gas is very seasonal - swings in monthly consumption are enormous

Natural gas market changing from a regional market to a global market (mainly because of LNG)

Energy security reasons: timely data is essential if there is an international gas crisis

Gas market transparency: the gas market needs more transparency as production, trade flows and consumption are not available for the world on a monthly basis.


Seasonality in gas demand

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Germany - Monthly natural gas consumption


Natural gas is becoming a global market

Trade of natural gas is expanding Particularly LNG market: more than doubled in

10 years More sources of LNG (e.g. Norway, Russia) More importers of LNG ( e.g. Brazil, Chile) LNG can be transported all over the world Spot markets and hubs are developing Many future projects in the pipeline:

liquefaction terminals, regasification units etc


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350bi

llion

cub

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etre

sWorld - Sources of LNG imports

Algeria Australia BelgiumBrunei Darussalam Egypt Equatorial GuineaIndonesia Italy Libyan Arab JamahiriyaMalaysia Nigeria NorwayOman Other Asia and Pacific Peru


Monthly data essential for energy security Countries need to know how dependent they

are from certain import sources In the past: long term contracts with a few

suppliers Now : some long term gas, but peak demand is

often met by spot purchases of LNG. Gas storage and stock levels important to deal

with seasonal demand Annual data is not timely enough to monitor the

gas markets.


A few recent examples February 2012 Extreme cold weather spell in

Europe: Supplies from Russia were reduced by 10% for a few days, before returning to normal levels. Several countries had historic high consumption and needed to compensate Russian gas from other sources. Crisis measures had to be taken in several European countries: Poland, Italy, Romania, Greece etc.

Ukraine – Russia dispute in January 2009A 3-week disruption, the largest gas crisis in Europe’s history with a total loss of more than 5 bcm for Europe and some 2 bcm for Ukraine.

To be able to monitor these types of crises annual data are not sufficient – more timely monthly data are essential


Monthly data for investment planning

Monthly gas demand highly sensitive to weather and temperature

There is a need to balance supply and demand at any point of time during the year.

Decisions on gas storage and investments in infrastructure are based on monthly data.


Monthly data for gas market transparency

OECD countries report monthly natural gas data to IEA

Growing share of gas demand is from non-OECD countries (in 2010 – 51% and by 2035 expected to be 61%)

There is a large gap in monthly gas market information for the non-OECD countries

There is therefore a need to fill this data gap which can be accomplished by the 7 international organisations collecting



Monthly Gas Statistics collected since January 1984 Data on Production, trade, stock changes and consumption Trade by origin and destination Collected for M-2

Gas trade flows Objective: to monitor physical gas trade flows in Europe Launched to solve problems with traditional trade reporting

Gas Jodi Started in October 2010 Data for M-1


Natural gas – monthly versus annual

Marketed Production

Marketed Production

ImportsImports

ExportsExports Stock BuildStock Build

Inland Consumption

Inland Consumption

TransportTransport

TransformationTransformation

IndustryIndustryResidentialCommercialAgriculture

ResidentialCommercialAgriculture

Stock DrawStock Draw

Distribution Losses

Distribution Losses

EnergyEnergy



Annual data Monthly data


Mcm* Terajoules Mcm* Terajoules Mcm* Terajoules

Griespass TRANSITGAS SNAM RETE GAS Switzerland Italy 2.63 1508 57455 1478 56311.8 1289 49111Panigaglia LNG vessels SNAM RETE GAS Algeria Italy 0.54 288 10973 315 12002 281 10706Mazara del Vallo TPMC SNAM RETE GAS Algeria Italy 3.73 2263 86220 1703 64884 1850 70485Gela Greenstream SNAM RETE GAS Libya Italy 1.25 620 23622 584 22250 692 26365Gorizia Geoplin plinovodi SNAM RETE GAS Slovenia Italy 0.2 23 876 29 1105 28 1067Tarvisio TAG SNAM RETE GAS Austria Italy 4.69 2250 85725 1909 72733 1528 58217Others (Falconara + Casalborsetti)*

Croatia off-shore gas fields SNAM RETE GAS Croatia Italy 0.67 92 3505 115 4382 120 4572

Total 13.71 7043 268338 6133 233667 5788 220523

Griespass SNAM RETE GAS TRANSITGAS Italy Switzerland 0.21

Gorizia SNAM RETE GAS Geoplin plinovodi ItalyCroatia by Slovenia 0.18 27.0 1028 27.9 1064 25.8 984

Tarvisio SNAM RETE GAS TAG Italy Austria 0.37Bizzarone (Como) SNAM RETE GAS Local Swiss network Italy Switzerland 0.05 5.1 193 3.0 113 2.1 79Total 32.0 1221 30.9 1177 27.9 1063

Mcm* Terajoules Mcm* Terajoules Mcm* TerajoulesMazara del Vallo Gorizia TPMC Geoplin plinovodi Algeria Slovenia 3.73 33.9 1291 25.2 961 29.3 1116

Observed FlowsApril 2006 May 2006

April 2006 May 2006

June 2006General Information on Entry/Exit points for gas Import, export and transit

To country

Max flow (Mcm/h)Italy

Location Sub location

Impo

rtsEx

ports

From system To system From country

Entry Point Exit Point

To country Max flow (Mcm/h)

TRAN

SIT

thro

ught

the

Coun

try b

y SNA

M

From system To system From country June 2006

Entry

Exit

Monthly Gas Trade Flows Project

Monthly Data


Monthly Gas Data - GTF

3. The Monthly Gas Trade Flows


Free on the iea website:http://www.iea.org/gtf/index.asp


Monthly Gas data – Gas JODI4. GAS JODI - monthly gas data for M-1

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importance of monthly statistics on natural gas

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