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Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis National Protection and Programs Directorate Infrastructure Modeling: Crawl, Walk, Run Briefing for the GUIRR February 24, 2016

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Page 1: Infrastructure Modeling: Crawl, Walk, Runsites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/pgasite/documents/webpage/… · Infrastructure Modeling: Crawl, Walk, Run Briefing for the GUIRR February

Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis

National Protection and Programs Directorate

Infrastructure Modeling: Crawl, Walk, Run

Briefing for the GUIRR

February 24, 2016

Page 2: Infrastructure Modeling: Crawl, Walk, Runsites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/pgasite/documents/webpage/… · Infrastructure Modeling: Crawl, Walk, Run Briefing for the GUIRR February

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Strengthen the security and resilience of the Nation’s critical infrastructure through innovative cyber and physical analysis

OCIA Vision

Inform the decisions that protect the Nation’s critical infrastructure

OCIA Mission

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OCIA Analytic Evolution

• Plume dispersion • Population impacts

• Economic impacts • Supply Chain Impact

• Electric power outages • Surge inundation

• Economic impacts • Infrastructure impacts

• Cascading impacts • Restoration Prioritization

• Population impacts • Impacts of mitigation strategies

• Critical Infrastructure Effects • Cascading Effects

Industrial Accidents

Pandemic

Hurricanes

• Retail payment system • Global financial network

• Inundation Assessment • Cascading Impacts

• Consequence Assessment • Restoration Projections / Prioritization

Banking and Finance

Inland/Coastal Flooding

Electric Power

• Water Sector • Comm./Govt.

facilities

Cyber-Physical

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I. Planning for Infrastructure Disruptions

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Estimated restoration times for damaged

and outaged substations

Electric power infrastructure damaged and

outaged

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Estimated damage to natural gas pipelines

and compressor stations

Expected damage to highway bridges and

tunnels in the Cascadia region

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Integrated Water Model Northern NJ

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II. Understanding Infrastructure Dependencies

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9 EP Infrastructure Linden, NJ-Staten Island, NY

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Water-Electric Power Dependencies

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III. Modeling Uncertainty

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12 Hurricane Risk: Wilmington, NC

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Hurricane Risk: Wilmington, NC

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IV. Modeling Supply Chains

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National Transportation Fuels Model

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Iron Ore-Steel Supply Chain

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MSCX

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MSCX

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MSCX

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V. Modeling Democratization

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AGAVE

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AGAVE

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AGAVE

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AGAVE

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Analytic Success in a Dynamic Environment

Humility

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For more information visit:

www.dhs.gov/office-cyber-infrastructure-analysis

Brandon D. Wales

Director, OCIA

[email protected]