investment directions q2 2012
DESCRIPTION
For the 2nd quarter, Bob Doll, Chief Equity Strategist and Jeff Rosenberg, Chief Investment Strategist for Fixed Income, with BlackRock, believe the backdrop for equities remains supportive, fixed income credit offers more value, and municipal bonds continue to remain attractive relative to taxable fixed income.TRANSCRIPT
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BlackRock Investment Directions
Bob Doll
Chief Equity Strategist
for Fundamental Equities
Jeffrey Rosenberg
Chief Investment Strategist
for Fixed Income
20
12
Asset Allocation Overview
As US economic data continues to improve and concerns about the European sovereign
debt crisis recede, investors’ appetite for risk appears to be increasing. Although
downside risk remains and risk assets have already experienced a considerable rally,
we see opportunities still in equities and credit-related fixed income, while government-
backed debt is likely to lag amid the more optimistic outlook.
So What Do I Do With My Money?
} Overweight Equities: The macro backdrop is supportive, and as long as
fundamentals remain sound, we believe equity valuations can continue to expand.
} Reduce Interest Rate Risk: With government bond yields on the rise, credit
sectors offer more value, though we believe rates will be capped by longer-term
demand for limited fixed income supply.
} Stick with Munis: While yields have the potential to follow Treasury rates higher
and some headline risk lurks in the near-term, tax-exempt munis continue to be
attractive relative to taxable fixed income.
Asset Allocation Views
Key = previous quarter = current quarter
Current OutlookStrength of Preference
Strong Neutral } Strong
Asset Allocation Investor fear is subsiding and risk-on sentiment should continue Bonds Stocks
Equities
Region US stocks are favored over non-US US Int’l
Opportunities in emerging markets are growing Developed Emerging
Market Cap Rally in equities may lead shift to small caps Small Large
Style Modest economic activity favors growth styles for the moment Value Growth
Fixed Income
Duration Further rate increases warrant short positioning Short Long
Quality Lower-quality bias remains given positive data trend High Low
RegionStay at neutral with rising rate risks in developed vs. policy cuts in emerging
Developed Emerging
Commodities & Currencies
Commodities Oil and gold prices may soften with strengthening dollar Underweight Overweight
CurrenciesUS economic improvement favors USD vs. other developed market currencies
US Foreign
}
Equity Market Outlook
The overall economic and market backdrop has continued to improve over the past
three months and investors are increasingly becoming more comfortable moving back
into higher-risk asset classes. The economy has certainly not entered into robust
expansion mode, nor is it likely to do so any time soon, but growth has been accelerating.
The labor market in particular has been improving, a critical factor that is helping to
make the current economic expansion self-sustaining. At this point, it looks like US
economic growth will average somewhere around the 2.5% level for all of 2012, which
is hardly stellar, but good enough to help equity markets extend their gains.
In addition to the economic backdrop, monetary policy remains market-friendly, and
while the chances of an additional round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve
have diminished to near-zero, the Fed is committed to keeping rates low for the foreseeable
future. At the same time, corporate earnings remain solid (although the pace of growth
has slowed compared to last year) and market valuations remain at least reasonable.
On balance, we believe there is room for further advances in equity prices. At the
same time, however, we expect the pace of price appreciation to become slower and
more uneven. At some point, we would not be surprised to see some sort of near-term
pullback or correction, but we also believe stock prices will end the year higher than
where they are today.
Equity Views
} �Our main area of focus with regard to the equity market has not changed: We favor companies generating high levels of free cash flow, particularly those that have the ability to increase their dividends.
} �Geographically, we continue to favor US over other developed market stocks and our view toward emerging markets is growing more favorable as investor risk appetite increases.
} �From a sector perspective, healthcare, energy and telecommunications services remain our favored areas. We are gradually adopting a more favorable view toward financials, but still recommend an overall underweight to that area of the market.
Equity Sector Outlook
Key = previous quarter = current quarter
Current OutlookStrength of Preference
Underweight Neutral } Overweight
Healthcare Strong cash flow growth; still the best defensive sector
Energy Attractive valuations and good cash flow warrant overweight position
Telecom Services Attractive yields, positive cash flows and competitive fundamentals
Information Technology Fundamentals mixed; valuations fair; good cash flow
Industrials Mixed prospects; retain neutral
Consumer Discretionary Mixed trends; mixed valuations
Consumer Staples Neutral fundamentals; higher oil prices could hurt
Materials Uncertain outlook in a modest growth environment
Financials Rising yields could help; cheap valuations
Utilities Little prospect for earnings or dividend growth; expensive
}
At this point, it looks like US economic
growth will average somewhere around
the 2.5% level for all of 2012, which is
hardly stellar, but good enough to help
equity markets extend their gains.
At some point, we would not be sur-
prised to see some sort of near-term
pullback or correction, but we also
believe stock prices will end the year
higher than where they are today.
We continue to recommend underweight-
ing interest rate risk and overweighting
credit risk in fixed income portfolios.
Income-oriented investors should
consider floating rate loans that
provide a high level of income while
also providing protection against
future increases in interest rates.
Taxable Fixed Income Market Outlook
Amid improvements in Europe and a prevailing risk-on sentiment among investors,
interest rates moved higher to match the brightening macro outlook, as we had
suggested may occur. While there could be more upward bias, we believe structural
forces will keep a cap on rates. The market focus has shifted to the next obvious sign
of strain: oil. Our view is that recent increases reflect less of a supply shock and more
of a normalization in the dollar following easing concerns out of Europe.
Our other concern: Can China manage its economic transformation? Over the longer
term, we have serious doubts. In the short term, however, we have no doubt that China
can continue to turn up the investment-led spend to keep growth above its recently
announced lowered target of 7.5%. A return to a policy of currency depreciation in the
face of weakening reserve growth may put downward pressure on gold prices. In the
near term, however, gold remains an effective hedge against continued dollar depreciation
and geopolitical risks.
Recent dollar strength and the rise in interest rates reflects a downshifting of
expectations for further Fed accommodation. We expect only modest increases in
rates for this year as the Fed will maintain its stance despite signs of recent economic
improvement. In such an environment, we continue to recommend underweighting
interest rate risk and overweighting credit risk in fixed income portfolios.
Taxable Fixed Income Views
} � With improved economic data reducing the possibility of additional policy stimulus
and increasing investor risk appetites, we expect risk assets will continue to rally.
} �In the prevailing risk-on environment, investors should increase exposure to credit
and reduce Treasuries, but also consider an allocation to inflation protection for
longer-term principal preservation.
} �Income-oriented investors should consider floating rate loans that provide a high level of income while also providing protection against future increases in interest rates.
Taxable Fixed Income Sector Outlook
Key = previous quarter = current quarter
Current OutlookStrength of Preference
Underweight Neutral } Overweight
High YieldSpreads remain attractive relative to default risks; loans increasingly attractive on valuation
Securitized Assets Attractive yields, but illiquid markets remain a risk
Corporates Attractive relative to ongoing financial sector risks
Non-US Dollar USD rate increase balanced against Euro sovereign risks & valuations
Agency MortgagesShift to neutral on less attractive spreads and dampened expectations for QE3
Emerging MarketsRisks remain with slowing growth, but policy favors local currency debt
Inflation Protected Preferred over nominal rates, but expensive in absolute terms
Treasury/Agency Better opportunities can be found elsewhere
}
Interest in munis remains strong as
investors continue to seek out income
and capital preservation in their fixed
income portfolios.
The stated investment preferences are the opinions of the authors and do not reflect individual investor’s risk and return goals. Individual investors should consult with their financial professional about how to implement these opinions into a portfolio that is suitable for their goals and risk tolerance. A “Neutral” preference indicates a recommendation that investors should maintain their long-term allocation regarding that investment decision. These views do not necessarily reflect the investment decisions made within specific BlackRock portfolios.
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of April 2, 2012, and may change as subsequent conditions vary. Individual portfolio managers for BlackRock may have opinions and/or make investment decisions that, in certain respects, may not be consistent with the information contained in this report. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and nonproprietary sources deemed by BlackRock to be reliable, are not necessarily all inclusive and are not guaranteed as to accuracy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. There is no guarantee that any forecasts made will come to pass. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Investment involves risks. Stock and bond values fluctuate in price so that the value of an investment can go down depending on market conditions. International investing involves additional risks, including risks related to foreign currency, limited liquidity, less government regulation and the possibility of substantial volatility due to adverse political, economic or other developments. These risks are typically heightened for investments in emerging markets. Investments in the natural resources industries can be significantly affected by events relating to those industries, such as variations in the commodities markets, weather, disease, embargoes, international, political and economic developments, the success of exploration projects, tax and other government regulations, as well as other factors. The two main risks related to fixed income investing are interest rate risk and credit risk. Typically, when interest rates rise, there is a corresponding decline in the market value of bonds. Credit risk refers to the possibility that the issuer of the bond will not be able to make principal and interest payments. There may be less information available on the financial condition of issuers of municipal securities than for public corporations. The market for municipal bonds may be less liquid than for taxable bonds. A portion of the income from municipal securities may be taxable. Some investors may be subject to Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT). Capital gains distributions on municipal securities, if any, are taxable.
You should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of any fund carefully before investing. The funds’ prospectuses and, if available, the summary prospectuses contain this and other information about the funds, and are available, along with information on other BlackRock funds by calling 800-882-0052 or from your financial professional. The prospectuses and, if available, the summary prospectuses should be read carefully before investing.
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Prepared by BlackRock Investments, LLC, member FINRA.
Lit. No. INV-DIRECTIONS-0312 AC6067B-0312 / USR-0170
Municipal Market Positioning
Key = previous quarter = current quarter
Current OutlookStrength of Preference
Strong Neutral } Strong
Duration Retain a neutral duration bias for munis Short Long
Yield Curve Favor a barbell approach (i.e., long and short maturities) Short Long
Municipal Market Outlook
After a strong run, tax-exempt municipal market performance paused recently as
an increase in issuance prompted supply to better match demand. The fundamental
backdrop generally appears healthy, but requires monitoring as budget season
approaches and select credit stories begin to capture headlines. Nonetheless,
interest in munis remains strong as investors continue to seek out income and
capital preservation in their fixed income portfolios.
We maintain a neutral duration stance, cognizant that the market is preparing for a
period of elevated issuance as states begin to negotiate their 2013 budgets. Given the
low absolute rate environment, we expect performance will be driven by yield curve
positioning and continued focus on income, and believe an emphasis on capital
preservation is important in today’s market.
Municipal Market Views
} � The recent market sell off has created better value opportunities. We favor a neutral
duration stance, given the economic upgrade. We continue to favor a barbell approach
to yield curve positioning, with exposure to both long and short maturities.
} � We recommend overweighting state tax-backed and essential service bonds.
} � We are less favorable toward land-secured bonds, senior living bonds, bond
insurers, student loans and local tax-backed issues.
}
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